MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-25 03:10:47

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Houston at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Houston					Pittsburgh
			Collin McHugh					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -137					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.314	17	25.3%	21.2%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.296	7	32.2%	23.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.343	24	29.5%	21.0%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.281	9	26.9%	21.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
					FPPG:		27.1	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		62.3	Pitcher Rank:		13
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	86.2	3.47	7.76	24.4%	3.7%	9.5%	35.1%	34.0%	40.6%
2016	25	94.7	3.92	4.99	22.7%	6.5%	10.8%	42.0%	36.8%	31.2%
2015	32	101.3	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh’s ERA over his last six starts may not look pretty, but the peripheral stats during that stretch do. Over the last month of play, he owns a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4% and a walk rate of 3.7%. He comes into today’s game as a small underdog, but he draws an exploitable matchup against the Pirates in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. On the season, Pittsburgh is ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching.

Gerrit Cole
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:
					FPPG:		29.7	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		76.5	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	96.8	4.07	4.11	17.8%	5.9%	9.1%	51.5%	23.7%	28.7%
2016	19	95.1	4.16	3.30	19.4%	6.6%	8.5%	46.2%	28.1%	29.2%
2015	32	101.2	3.23	2.60	24.3%	5.3%	10.2%	48.0%	29.6%	29.5%

Cole hasn’t been great in his last five outings, posting a 4.07 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 17.8%. Vegas has a little more faith in him that I do, as he is listed as a small favorite against Collin McHugh and the Astros. On the season, Houston is ranked 13th in team wOBA and 15th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Cole is still one of the best pitching options in the early slate, but head to head I prefer Kyle Hendricks, who gets to face the strikeout-happy Padres.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros come into today’s game with the third lowest implied team total in the entire Wednesday slate. Even though Gerrit Cole has been in mediocre form recently, he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA in the last two seasons. Cole has also only allowed 16 home runs in his last 51 starts.

• Astros Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (12 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (15 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 23.8% (28 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.59 (12 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.53 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have really struggled offensively over the last month of play, but they sure got to Joe Musgrove early last night. They come into today’s game with a mediocre run projection. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Collin McHugh, whose peripheral stats have been solid all season. McHugh is a reverse-splits pitcher though, which could bode well for a right-handed heavy Pirates’ lineup.

• Pirates Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.310 (24 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (27 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.97 (4 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.54 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.97 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Colorado					Milwaukee
			Tyler Anderson					Zach Davies
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -110					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.257	0	21.3%	17.7%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.316	9	32.3%	17.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.327	9	29.8%	22.1%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.299	8	33.3%	19.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		27.6	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		63.6	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	89.3	3.83	4.00	22.2%	6.3%	10.1%	49.5%	33.3%	27.5%
2016	13	93.7	3.69	3.69	20.9%	5.6%	10.5%	54.9%	27.0%	27.6%

Anderson has pitched well in his first 13 career starts, posting a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.9% and a walk rate of 5.9%. He has an above-average swinging strike rate and an elite ground ball rate. That is a lethal combination for a pitcher. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Brewers, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and 28th in team K% against left-handed pitching this season. The upside is certainly there for Anderson, but it’s possible that the Brewers could have eight right-handed hitters in their lineup.

Zach Davies
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		27.8	FPPG:		13.9
					Pitcher Rating:		51.9	Pitcher Rank:		20
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	93.2	4.51	5.24	16.3%	4.8%	7.9%	40.0%	36.5%	33.6%
2016	22	92.6	4.21	4.18	18.9%	5.9%	7.8%	45.3%	33.2%	33.1%

Davies has been an easy fade for most of the season. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he plays for a bad team. He comes into today’s game in bad form, posting a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.3%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Rockies, who provide some very difficult outs, especially at the top of their lineup. Davies should be avoided in what is expected to be a high scoring game.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies may not be playing in Coors Field, but Miller Park is still generous to hitters. They come into today’s game with an above-average run projection, as they square off against Zach Davies. His splits don’t exactly leap off the page at us, but Davies has allowed a hard hit contact rate of at least 32% to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons combined.

• Rockies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.340 (3 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.351 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (11 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.32 (2 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.44 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – David Dahl, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a boom or bust matchup against Tyler Anderson. While he has shown some nice upside this season, the Brewers hit left-handed pitching well as a team. In his 13 starts, Anderson has allowed a .327 wOBA and nine home runs to right-handed hitters. Look for the Brewers to be aggressive on the base paths because that’s what they do.

• Brewers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.330 (9 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.339 (5 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.155 (19 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 24.3% (28 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.97 (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.10 (24 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.56 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar

Secondary Plays – Keon Broxton, Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez, Chris Carter

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Cleveland					Oakland
			Trevor Bauer					Kendall Graveman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -140					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.313	18	33.7%	22.6%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.331	13	31.2%	15.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.304	20	30.2%	21.9%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.318	20	27.2%	14.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$11,300
					FPPG:		27.0	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		61.6	Pitcher Rank:		14
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	96.0	4.52	4.76	20.6%	10.3%	7.7%	47.1%	30.6%	29.1%
2016	20	115.7	4.22	3.88	21.6%	9.3%	9.1%	49.0%	32.1%	33.0%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Bauer is having a decent season overall, but he comes into today’s game in bad form. In his last five starts, he has a 4.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.6% and a walk rate of 10.3%. The good news is that he gets to face an A’s offense that is ranked 25th in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The bad news is that the A’s are one of the toughest teams in baseball to strikeout. Given Bauer’s recent form and the fact that this game is on the road, I will be looking elsewhere in the early slate.

Kendall Graveman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		24.9	FPPG:		12.1
					Pitcher Rating:		37.8	Pitcher Rank:		27
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	91.2	4.35	3.70	11.6%	3.1%	5.9%	52.9%	25.0%	26.4%
2016	24	90.1	4.56	4.09	14.1%	6.1%	7.7%	52.4%	28.0%	30.0%
2015	21	90.4	4.43	4.05	15.3%	7.6%	7.6%	50.0%	28.6%	28.3%

Graveman has a 3.70 ERA over his last five starts, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot to us when it is accompanied by a strikeout rate of 11.6%. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball, which makes him an auto-fade regardless of the opponent. The fact that he has to face the Indians is just icing on the cake. Cleveland is ranked fifth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians haven’t been great so far in this series, but they draw one of the best matchups in the early slate. In the last two seasons, Kendall Graveman has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The only downside in this matchup is that Graveman induces an elite ground ball rate, which leads to more singles than extra-base hits.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (5 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.345 (2 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.185 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (13 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.05 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.23 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland

The A’s put up nine runs against the Indians last night and draw arguably a better matchup this time around. Trevor Bauer hasn’t been in great form recently and he has allowed a 33% hard hit contact rate on the season. The A’s have one of the lowest run projections in the early slate, but that doesn’t mean that we have to fade them completely. Bauer has allowed 38 home runs in the last two seasons.

• Athletics Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (25 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.309 (25 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (23 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (4 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (22 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.99 (26 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.77 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Chicago Cubs					San Diego
			Kyle Hendricks					Paul Clemens
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -250					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.311	18	26.2%	21.5%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.293	2	50.0%	23.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.253	12	23.9%	23.0%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.434	8	40.3%	10.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		34.0	FPPG:		18.9
					Pitcher Rating:		80.9	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	103.0	3.53	1.80	23.9%	4.6%	12.6%	42.4%	31.5%	19.6%
2016	23	96.5	3.80	2.16	22.0%	6.2%	10.0%	49.7%	30.4%	23.8%
2015	32	87.3	3.37	3.95	22.6%	5.8%	8.1%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%

At this point, we can just start streaming pitchers against the Padres. They have been downright awful over the last month of play. I suppose there numbers on the season haven’t been much better, ranking 30th in team wOBA and 29th in team K%. In addition to the great matchup, Hendricks have been in good form over the last month of play, posting a 1.80 ERA (3.53 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. He should be the chalk in the early slate, especially considering the fact that he is a -250 favorite.

Paul Clemens
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		14.3	FPPG:		6.3
					Pitcher Rating:		31.1	Pitcher Rank:		29
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	81.3	5.08	4.74	14.8%	9.1%	4.9%	49.2%	35.4%	36.4%
2016	7	90.9	5.43	4.82	15.9%	11.8%	5.2%	41.0%	42.7%	43.8%

Oh how I can’t wait to stack the Cubs against Paul Clemens. I have nothing against him, he just hasn’t been a very good pitcher at the major league level. In seven starts this season, he has a 5.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.9% and a walk rate of 11.8%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate over 40%. That spells trouble against an offense like the Cubs that is ranked fifth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

When a team playing in Petco Park has the highest run projection in an entire 15 game slate, you know they must have a dream matchup. The sample size may be small, but Clemens has allowed a 43.8% hard hit contact rate and ten home runs in his first seven major league starts. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and we can stack the Cubs in both cash games and tournaments.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (5 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.336 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (23 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.99 (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.13 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.11 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego

The Padres come into today’s game with the second lowest run projection in the entire slate. They have not fared well against left or right-handed pitching recently and they have one of the highest strikeout rates in all of baseball. You could potentially look to Alex Dickerson as a one-off target in tournaments, but he is the only Padres’ hitter that is even remotely on my radar.

• Padres Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.293 (30 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.298 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (21 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 24.5% (29 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.39 (20 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.39 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Dickerson

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

NY Yankees					Seattle
			Masahiro Tanaka					Hisashi Iwakuma
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -120					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.279	21	33.9%	23.2%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.311	17	28.5%	19.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.280	20	31.4%	20.7%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.302	23	30.5%	19.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$10,800
					FPPG:		33.6	FPPG:		18.2
					Pitcher Rating:		71.0	Pitcher Rank:		9
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	93.4	3.07	4.22	25.4%	1.5%	9.4%	46.8%	36.2%	35.8%
2016	25	94.4	3.70	3.24	21.0%	4.1%	10.8%	47.7%	30.6%	34.0%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

Tanaka has been sharp in his last five starts, posting a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4%. His swinging strike rate during that stretch is actually lower than his season average, so we shouldn’t expect him to sustain this high k-rate. He draws a fairly difficult matchup today against the Mariners, who are ranked eighth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Iwakuma is an interesting GPP option, but there are safer cash game targets.

Hisashi Iwakuma
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		31.4	FPPG:		15.4
					Pitcher Rating:		61.0	Pitcher Rank:		15
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	89.7	4.45	3.03	16.3%	4.1%	6.7%	39.7%	37.1%	29.1%
2016	25	92.0	4.43	3.78	17.6%	5.2%	7.8%	39.4%	39.2%	31.6%
2015	20	93.4	3.36	3.54	21.5%	4.1%	10.6%	50.4%	31.1%	26.9%

I have been off of Iwakuma this season, largely in part due to the massive decrease in his strikeout rate. In 25 starts, he has a 4.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.6%. On a positive note, he is listed as a small favorite against the Yankees in a game that features a low over/under of 7.5 runs. I prefer to target Kyle Hendricks and/or Gerrit Cole in the early slate, but both of the pitchers in this game make decent GPP options.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Gary Sanchez must be broken. He didn’t hit any home runs last night against Taijuan Walker and the Mariners’ bullpen. While he remains a strong play on FanDuel, the rest of the Yankees are in a less than ideal spot. In the last two seasons, Hisashi Iwakuma has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA.

• Yankees Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (23 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.311 (23 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (19 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (9 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.15 (23 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.63 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez (FD)

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez (DK), Didi Gregorius

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle

Even though Masahiro Tanaka strikeout rate is down a bit this season, I’m still not a fan of targeting hitters against him. He has held both left and right-handed hitters in check, holding both under a .280 wOBA. This is one of those games that has very little fantasy appeal as a whole. The Mariners may be favorites here, but I will be avoiding their offense in all league formats.

• Mariners Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (7 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.320 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (8 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (8 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.71 (8 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.87 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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