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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-26 20:26:52

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
Article Image Wei-Yin Chen Article Image Kyle McGowin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-190 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.233 0.269 36.1% 1.27 29.3% 47.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.000 0.265 33.3% 0.00 25.0% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.312 32.3% 1.34 17.8% 34.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.677 0.626 50.0% 13.50 33.3% 25.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 6 Salary Rank: 1 of 6 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.61 3.82 18.9% 6.8% 36.6% 29.9% 24.7% 90.9 8.7%
2018 25 4.52 4.66 20.0% 8.0% 37.2% 33.0% 17.3% 91.1 8.6%
L14 2 3.37 4.09 27.3% 4.6% 40.0% 40.0% 23.3% 91.2 12.0%

Chen has pitched well at times this season, including in his last two starts where he posted a 3.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 5%. For him to deserve consideration in DFS, he needs to be playing in a big ballpark that suppresses home run production. Throughout his career, the long ball has been his biggest nemesis, especially when it comes to right-handed hitters. While the Nationals don’t have a ton of right-handed power in their lineup, their offense is still loaded. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .379 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chen in all formats.

Kyle McGowin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 6 Salary Rank: 5 of 6 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 0 2.57 6.75 30.0% 0.0% 28.6% 42.9% 14.3% 91.1 12.8%
L14 0 0.58 5.40 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 91.3 21.7%

McGowin will be making his first career major league start today against the Marlins. While the matchup is great and while he had some excellent numbers in the minors, he has worked solely out of the bullpen since being called up. He’ll likely be on a pitch count, as he hasn’t thrown more than 16 pitches in nearly a month. If we get news that he’s able to throw 75+ pitches, then I will certainly give him a hard look in this early slate. If not, then I won’t be taking the risk.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an ear to the ground as we get closer to lock. McGowin has talent and a nice matchup against the Marlins.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins will be facing rookie Kyle McGowin on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he has pitched well in the minors, this will be his first career major league start. Not only that, but they may only have to face him for an inning or two if the Nationals pull him early. I’m not in love with the Marlins’ offense by any means, but they should be low owned in tournaments. Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich, and Peter O’Brien all boast a .320+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JT Riddle LEFT 0.312 0.164 32.6% 7.3% 19.1% 47.5% SS $2,300 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.339 0.114 37.3% 7.9% 19.3% 53.8% 3B $2,500 3B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.323 0.151 37.0% 6.4% 23.9% 39.1% 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Peter O’Brien RIGHT 0.370 0.273 40.9% 10.5% 31.6% 45.5% 1B $2,400 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.299 0.039 32.2% 7.3% 13.6% 45.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Christopher Bostick 0.343 0.000 66.7% 16.7% 33.3% 66.7% 2B $2,000 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Chad Wallach RIGHT 0.191 0.100 14.3% 0.0% 53.1% 53.8% C $2,100 C $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Wei-Yin Chen LEFT 0.106 0.029 4.6% 0.0% 38.9% 89.5% P $7,200 P $7,400 N/A N/A
9 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.182 0.009 21.4% 3.4% 24.8% 52.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.274 0.098 31.9% 6.6% 28.6% 54.9%

Elite Plays – Peter O’Brien

Secondary Plays – JT Riddle, Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have a huge implied run total today, as they square off against Wei-Yin Chen. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA, but has historically struggled against right-handed power. He’s been tough on lefties, which limits the appeal of a full Nationals’ stack, but all of the righties are in play here. Victor Robles, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman all bat from the right side and all boast a .365+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Victor Robles RIGHT 0.366 0.200 38.5% 11.8% 11.8% 36.4% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.380 0.135 36.3% 11.9% 11.4% 40.6% SS $4,300 SS $5,100 N/A N/A
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.404 0.228 41.9% 18.5% 23.4% 42.7% OF $4,700 OF $5,500 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.464 0.283 45.4% 12.3% 17.4% 22.7% 3B $4,400 3B $5,300 N/A N/A
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.343 0.223 31.6% 10.4% 23.5% 63.5% OF $4,200 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.454 0.290 46.6% 15.7% 14.5% 41.4% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Adrian Sanchez RIGHT 0.361 0.148 31.8% 0.0% 18.5% 45.5% SS $2,300 2B/3B $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.260 0.154 18.2% 7.1% 14.3% 40.9% C $2,300 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Kyle McGowin RIGHT P $5,500 P $4,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.379 0.208 36.3% 11.0% 16.9% 41.7%

Elite Plays – Victor Robles, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Houston Toronto
Article Image Chris Devenski Article Image Sean Reid-Foley
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-140 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.298 33.3% 2.52 26.0% 31.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.355 34.0% 1.59 21.8% 31.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.295 35.3% 0.48 26.5% 37.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.391 0.325 36.4% 2.08 33.3% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Devenski
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 6 Salary Rank: 5 of 6 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 2.99 2.68 31.7% 8.2% 39.8% 28.2% 20.2% 94.1 17.1%
2018 0 3.28 4.12 26.2% 6.6% 33.9% 34.2% 21.7% 94.3 14.3%
L14 0 4.27 3.00 18.2% 0.0% 22.2% 55.6% 0.0% 93.9 9.1%

Devenski will technically draw the start today against the Blue Jays, but this will be a bullpen game for the Astros. Without knowing who the long reliever is going to be, we should above this situation completely. The exception would be if the Astros’ beat writers clue us in on who will be taking the reigns after Devenski.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Devenski and the Astros’ bullpen.

Sean Reid-Foley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 6 Salary Rank: 3 of 6 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 6 4.55 5.40 26.8% 14.5% 37.5% 35.0% 20.0% 93.8 11.8%
L14 2 4.34 2.00 34.9% 18.6% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 93.6 14.4%

Reid-Foley has pitched well in his last two starts, posting a 4.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He has some serious control issues and he’s facing a talented Astros’ offense, but we don’t have many pitching options to choose from in the early slate. It feels gross to type, but he’s actually my second favorite pitcher in these first three games. The main reason is because the Astros are rolling out their Triple-A lineup. George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve are all out of the lineup today.

Quick Breakdown: Reid-Foley is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Even though the Astros are missing some of their best hitters today, they are facing a pitcher with control issues in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The fact that I have interest in Sean Reid-Foley doesn’t mean that we automatically have to face the Astros’ offense. I certainly don’t expect him to come out and throw six scoreless innings, he’s just the lesser of evils when it comes to pitching. On the season, Reid-Foley has allowed a .355 xwOBA to lefties and a .325 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.248 0.160 27.4% 5.5% 35.5% 38.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.315 0.164 31.5% 11.9% 12.4% 45.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.312 0.177 28.3% 10.1% 23.4% 45.3% SS $3,600 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.283 0.123 29.9% 3.4% 10.7% 49.1% 1B $3,800 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
5 Tyler White RIGHT 0.342 0.278 33.9% 8.9% 16.4% 43.1% 1B $3,800 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Kyle Tucker LEFT 0.340 0.044 36.1% 8.2% 18.4% 47.2% OF $2,000 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 J.D. Davis RIGHT 0.314 0.055 26.2% 8.3% 21.7% 47.6% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Max Stassi RIGHT 0.327 0.176 30.5% 11.7% 29.7% 51.2% C $2,000 C $3,100 N/A N/A
9 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2B $2,000 P $6,200 P $8,000
Team Averages 0.310 0.131 32.6% 7.6% 18.7% 40.8%

Elite Plays – Tony Kemp, Tyler White

Secondary Plays – Jake Marisnick, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

I always hate bullpen starts when the team doesn’t clue us in on who the long reliever is going to be. It makes predicting matchups (and therefore fantasy production) extremely difficult. In order to have interest in the Blue Jays’ hitters, we have to believe in their talent and we have to like their respective price points. There isn’t really anything that jumps off the page for me today, but Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk, and Rowdy Tellez are all on my radar for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.365 0.193 34.4% 7.2% 25.8% 40.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.349 0.166 33.7% 3.7% 19.0% 34.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.398 0.260 40.3% 16.1% 26.9% 34.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.339 0.263 37.0% 5.6% 25.8% 35.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.458 0.472 41.9% 0.0% 13.9% 32.3% 1B $2,500 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.353 0.194 33.6% 3.7% 12.8% 40.2% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Reese McGuire LEFT 0.425 0.176 33.3% 10.5% 10.5% 26.7% C $2,200 C $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.272 0.061 44.4% 6.9% 30.6% 36.4% SS $2,300 2B/SS $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Jonathon Berti RIGHT N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.370 0.223 37.3% 6.7% 20.7% 35.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Kansas City Cincinnati
Article Image Heath Fillmyer Article Image Cody Reed
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-155 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.338 33.9% 0.66 14.0% 47.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.242 0.207 38.5% 0.00 21.6% 53.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.355 44.9% 1.85 16.6% 47.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.304 33.7% 1.48 24.1% 62.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Heath Fillmyer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 6 Salary Rank: 4 of 6 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 12 5.00 4.56 15.1% 9.5% 47.5% 38.8% 16.9% 92.6 8.3%
L14 2 3.83 3.77 20.0% 1.8% 37.2% 30.2% 18.6% 92.6 10.6%

Fillmyer has not pitched well in his 12 starts this season, posting a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 39%. While he does have a decent ground ball rate, when that is combined with a low strikeout rate, it puts him at the mercy of BABIP every time he takes the mound. The Reds have been disappointing this season, but they play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and their projected lineup for today’s game has four batters with at least a .340 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fillmyer is not on my radar in the early slate, even though he’s not the worst option on the board.

Cody Reed
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 6 Salary Rank: 2 of 6 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 1 6.46 5.09 21.5% 24.1% 60.5% 32.6% 16.3% 94.3 13.3%
2018 6 3.44 3.66 23.5% 7.7% 60.5% 34.8% 15.7% 92.5 10.8%
L14 3 2.37 1.80 32.8% 7.8% 72.2% 36.1% 13.9% 92.1 13.5%

My Reed fade turned out to be a terrible call the other night. He continued his excellent form and had a nice outing against the Marlins. In six starts this season, he owns a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 61%. He has improved his control, which has done wonders for the rest of his game. He’s head and shoulders above the other pitching options in the early slate and is the clear SP1. The Royals aren’t terrible against southpaws, but they lose the use of the DH in this series and their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 22% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Reed is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals draw the worst matchup on the board. While they are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH in this series. On the season, Cody Reed has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. He has an elite ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. The only three hitters on my radar here are Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Salvador Perez. They all bat from the right side of the plate and all have high fly-ball rates against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.379 0.183 38.7% 6.7% 15.5% 30.4% 2B $3,900 2B/OF $5,200 N/A N/A
2 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.368 0.217 47.0% 2.3% 19.8% 41.5% SS $3,700 2B/SS $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.293 0.028 33.3% 9.4% 22.6% 46.7% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.348 0.167 43.6% 5.5% 22.8% 32.7% C $3,000 C $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.322 0.086 31.4% 12.4% 28.9% 47.1% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.338 0.138 32.4% 21.1% 28.9% 37.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.293 0.107 27.5% 4.9% 16.8% 47.7% 3B $2,200 3B/SS $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Rosell Herrera SWITCH 0.282 0.079 41.7% 6.1% 19.4% 53.5% OF $2,300 2B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Heath Fillmyer RIGHT P $7,300 P $6,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.328 0.126 37.0% 8.6% 21.8% 42.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds haven’t lived up to expectations this season, but draw a favorable matchup against Heath Fillmyer. In addition to having a low strikeout rate, he has allowed a .338 xwOBA to lefties and a .355 xwOBA to righties. His home run issues have mostly come against right-handed hitters, which brings Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez into play in all formats. Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett are also viable from the other side of the plate, as they each boast an xwOBA of at least .340 against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.349 0.204 38.1% 10.2% 25.1% 49.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.305 0.127 30.0% 4.9% 11.8% 34.2% SS $3,300 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.441 0.148 40.2% 19.1% 14.8% 34.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.342 0.195 39.2% 7.0% 18.7% 39.5% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.365 0.223 45.2% 9.0% 24.0% 38.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.326 0.121 38.8% 10.0% 15.3% 41.5% C $2,100 C $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Mason Williams LEFT 0.291 0.124 48.1% 4.8% 21.2% 50.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Cody Reed LEFT 0.086 0.000 0.0% 12.5% 87.5% 0.0% P $7,500 P $6,700 N/A N/A
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.245 0.074 17.5% 8.0% 22.0% 40.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.306 0.135 33.0% 9.5% 26.7% 36.4%

Elite Plays – Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
Article Image Jimmy Yacabonis Article Image Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-400 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.336 31.0% 1.42 16.4% 43.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.196 0.197 18.6% 0.00 38.3% 50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.358 32.1% 2.70 24.1% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.247 27.9% 0.79 38.5% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Yacabonis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 24 Salary Rank: 19 of 24 Salary Rank: 22 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 6.67 4.35 8.9% 15.6% 48.5% 32.4% 27.9% 95.4 5.3%
2018 5 4.30 6.34 20.8% 8.3% 39.6% 31.6% 19.4% 93.5 10.9%
L14 1 3.70 5.14 24.1% 6.9% 41.2% 16.7% 22.2% 93.4 17.7%

The Orioles have yet to announce a starter for the second half of their double-header against the Red Sox. However, Yacabonis was slated to pitch last night’s game that was rained out, so he’s the obvious candidate to take the mound tonight. He has made five major league starts this season, posting a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that is facing the Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. He hasn’t been particularly good against left or right-handed hitters, so he could be in for a very short outing. He offers significantly more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid any and all Orioles’ pitchers.

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,300
Salary Rank: 2 of 24 Salary Rank: 2 of 24 Salary Rank: 2 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5% 94.4 14.9%
2018 26 2.26 2.00 38.5% 5.6% 44.9% 26.2% 27.7% 94.8 15.9%
L14 3 2.16 2.45 34.5% 0.0% 38.9% 27.8% 11.1% 94.1 15.6%

Sale is expected to push for 90 pitches tonight against the Orioles, so this is the first time that we can actually consider him since coming back from injury. He has a lot going for him in this spot. His price has come down across the industry and he’s facing the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .270 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching. Throwing 90 pitches against Baltimore is like throwing 105 pitches against most teams.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .250 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate this season. It’s safe to avoid the Orioles’ offense in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.219 0.000 17.4% 15.6% 33.3% 57.1% OF $2,500 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.278 0.216 28.0% 7.5% 30.0% 30.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,700
3 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.315 0.160 41.1% 5.3% 28.9% 53.5% 2B $2,800 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.325 0.108 31.0% 2.5% 9.9% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.277 0.116 22.3% 6.7% 24.2% 67.8% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.307 0.186 30.0% 8.5% 25.5% 44.9% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,600 SS $7,500
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.264 0.096 26.4% 6.3% 26.3% 41.5% 3B $2,400 3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,400
8 Austin Wynns RIGHT 0.281 0.000 22.6% 0.0% 27.9% 51.6% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 John Andreoli RIGHT 0.163 0.000 25.0% 3.7% 37.0% 12.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
Team Averages 0.270 0.098 27.1% 6.2% 27.0% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox should be able to cruise to a victory tonight against the Orioles. Granted, anything can happen in baseball, but I don’t see how this game stays competitive. Jimmy Yacabonis is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .358 xwOBA to righties. Fenway Park favors right-handed power, which puts Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts on my radar in all formats. You can complete the Boston stack with the left-handed bats of Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.447 0.267 44.6% 11.7% 15.2% 33.4% OF $5,200 OF $6,100 RF $11,300
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.389 0.185 29.1% 12.1% 13.3% 39.4% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 LF $9,000
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.449 0.320 44.9% 11.5% 21.9% 44.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,300 RF $9,800
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.372 0.246 36.8% 7.0% 17.0% 46.0% SS $4,100 SS $4,600 SS $9,100
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.328 0.207 35.8% 8.2% 24.0% 44.5% 3B $3,100 3B $4,100 3B $8,200
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.402 0.205 36.2% 11.3% 21.4% 40.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.324 0.173 29.9% 7.9% 12.4% 36.9% 2B $2,500 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.249 0.112 25.7% 3.0% 26.9% 41.2% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $4,900
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.377 0.185 42.5% 9.6% 22.6% 38.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
Team Averages 0.371 0.211 36.2% 9.1% 19.4% 40.5%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta NY Mets
Article Image Sean Newcomb Article Image Jacob deGrom
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-165 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.304 0.338 41.0% 1.85 29.0% 43.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.265 23.8% 0.53 29.5% 43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.303 34.0% 0.80 20.8% 43.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.206 0.244 30.5% 0.34 34.5% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Newcomb
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 22 Salary Rank: 7 of 22 Salary Rank: 7 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 19 4.71 4.32 23.7% 12.5% 43.8% 27.0% 17.5% 93.7 11.2%
2018 29 4.55 4.04 22.4% 11.3% 43.6% 35.3% 18.0% 93.0 9.7%
L14 2 3.14 6.00 29.0% 5.3% 45.8% 24.0% 4.0% 94.3 10.2%

Newcomb has all of the skills needed to be an ace at the major league level, but he needs to work on his control. He had a 13% walk rate last season and it’s still above 11% this season. Even though he’s a large underdog tonight against the Mets, this is an intriguing matchup. New York has struggled against southpaws all season and their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .266 with a strikeout rate of 25%.

Quick Breakdown: If you can stomach targeting an underdog on the road, Newcomb should be on your radar in tournaments.

Jacob deGrom
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,300 Salary: $13,200 Salary: $25,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 22 Salary Rank: 1 of 22 Salary Rank: 1 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.44 3.53 28.9% 7.1% 45.3% 31.9% 21.3% 95.2 13.3%
2018 31 2.83 1.77 32.0% 5.7% 45.8% 27.0% 24.8% 95.9 15.0%
L14 3 2.23 2.57 38.2% 5.3% 53.5% 16.3% 25.6% 96.9 13.8%

From a raw projection standpoint, deGrom is clearly the number one pitching option of the slate. He’s been amazing this season, posting a 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a soft contact rate of 25%. The only downside with deGrom is that he’s expensive and that he plays for a Mets’ team that refuses to give him run support. If you can find the salary cap to comfortably play deGrom tonight, you absolutely should consider him as your SP1. If not, I have no issue going down to Chris Sale in a dream matchup against the Orioles.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have a very capable offense, but they are playing on the road against one of the best pitchers in baseball. We can cross the Braves off our list of potential targets tonight. Jacob deGrom has elite strikeout and soft contact rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.386 0.262 47.4% 8.5% 26.3% 41.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $9,100
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.305 0.136 32.2% 7.9% 12.6% 42.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.413 0.182 44.7% 11.2% 17.4% 34.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,000
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.385 0.150 41.0% 10.9% 9.0% 42.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.314 0.166 34.9% 10.8% 20.4% 45.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.314 0.089 49.2% 6.5% 26.4% 40.6% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,600
7 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.299 0.187 33.2% 6.2% 17.2% 36.2% 2B $3,400 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
8 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.274 0.223 33.3% 6.3% 28.9% 48.3% 3B $2,600 3B/OF $3,500 SS $6,500
9 Sean Newcomb LEFT 0.041 0.026 11.8% 0.0% 59.1% 81.8% P $7,600 P $8,100 P $16,000
Team Averages 0.303 0.158 36.4% 7.6% 24.1% 45.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight, but they have struggled against left-handed pitching all season (as you can see from the table below). Their matchup against Sean Newcomb is mediocre at best. He has serious reverse-splits, holding righties to a .303 xwOBA, while allowing a .338 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. The only lefty in the Mets’ lineup with any sort of pop against southpaws is Michael Conforto and he feels a bit too expensive to target in a 12-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.312 0.148 31.4% 4.9% 21.1% 45.6% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
2 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.264 0.015 28.6% 7.6% 29.0% 49.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.346 0.232 35.5% 8.7% 31.5% 52.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.280 0.111 36.8% 11.3% 27.4% 43.4% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.311 0.158 32.4% 6.9% 23.5% 28.2% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,500 RF $6,400
6 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.322 0.137 37.8% 12.1% 24.1% 51.4% C $2,000 C $3,300 C $6,700
7 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.299 0.159 39.0% 9.5% 33.3% 52.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,300
8 Jack Reinheimer RIGHT 0.086 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% SS $2,000 OF/SS $3,400 3B $6,500
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.177 0.000 16.7% 3.4% 34.5% 56.3% P $12,300 P $13,200 P $25,900
Team Averages 0.266 0.107 28.7% 7.2% 24.9% 50.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious