MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-26 20:26:52

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Miami								Washington
			Wei-Yin Chen							Kyle McGowin
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-190							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.233	0.269	36.1%	1.27	29.3%	47.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000	0.265	33.3%	0.00	25.0%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.312	32.3%	1.34	17.8%	34.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.677	0.626	50.0%	13.50	33.3%	25.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Wei-Yin Chen
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 6	Salary Rank:			1 of 6	Salary Rank:
	2017	5	4.61	3.82	18.9%	6.8%	36.6%	29.9%	24.7%	90.9	8.7%
	2018	25	4.52	4.66	20.0%	8.0%	37.2%	33.0%	17.3%	91.1	8.6%
	L14	2	3.37	4.09	27.3%	4.6%	40.0%	40.0%	23.3%	91.2	12.0%

Chen has pitched well at times this season, including in his last two starts where he posted a 3.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 5%. For him to deserve consideration in DFS, he needs to be playing in a big ballpark that suppresses home run production. Throughout his career, the long ball has been his biggest nemesis, especially when it comes to right-handed hitters. While the Nationals don’t have a ton of right-handed power in their lineup, their offense is still loaded. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .379 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chen in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle McGowin
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 6	Salary Rank:			5 of 6	Salary Rank:

	2018	0	2.57	6.75	30.0%	0.0%	28.6%	42.9%	14.3%	91.1	12.8%
	L14	0	0.58	5.40	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	91.3	21.7%

McGowin will be making his first career major league start today against the Marlins. While the matchup is great and while he had some excellent numbers in the minors, he has worked solely out of the bullpen since being called up. He’ll likely be on a pitch count, as he hasn’t thrown more than 16 pitches in nearly a month. If we get news that he’s able to throw 75+ pitches, then I will certainly give him a hard look in this early slate. If not, then I won’t be taking the risk.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an ear to the ground as we get closer to lock. McGowin has talent and a nice matchup against the Marlins.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins will be facing rookie Kyle McGowin on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he has pitched well in the minors, this will be his first career major league start. Not only that, but they may only have to face him for an inning or two if the Nationals pull him early. I’m not in love with the Marlins’ offense by any means, but they should be low owned in tournaments. Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich, and Peter O’Brien all boast a .320+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.312	0.164	32.6%	7.3%	19.1%	47.5%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.339	0.114	37.3%	7.9%	19.3%	53.8%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.323	0.151	37.0%	6.4%	23.9%	39.1%	1B	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Peter O’Brien	RIGHT	0.370	0.273	40.9%	10.5%	31.6%	45.5%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.299	0.039	32.2%	7.3%	13.6%	45.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Christopher Bostick		0.343	0.000	66.7%	16.7%	33.3%	66.7%	2B	$2,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Chad Wallach	RIGHT	0.191	0.100	14.3%	0.0%	53.1%	53.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.106	0.029	4.6%	0.0%	38.9%	89.5%	P	$7,200	P	$7,400	N/A	N/A
9	Magneuris Sierra	LEFT	0.182	0.009	21.4%	3.4%	24.8%	52.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.274	0.098	31.9%	6.6%	28.6%	54.9%

Elite Plays – Peter O’Brien

Secondary Plays – JT Riddle, Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have a huge implied run total today, as they square off against Wei-Yin Chen. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA, but has historically struggled against right-handed power. He’s been tough on lefties, which limits the appeal of a full Nationals’ stack, but all of the righties are in play here. Victor Robles, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman all bat from the right side and all boast a .365+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Victor Robles	RIGHT	0.366	0.200	38.5%	11.8%	11.8%	36.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.380	0.135	36.3%	11.9%	11.4%	40.6%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,100	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.404	0.228	41.9%	18.5%	23.4%	42.7%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.464	0.283	45.4%	12.3%	17.4%	22.7%	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.343	0.223	31.6%	10.4%	23.5%	63.5%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.454	0.290	46.6%	15.7%	14.5%	41.4%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Adrian Sanchez	RIGHT	0.361	0.148	31.8%	0.0%	18.5%	45.5%	SS	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Spencer Kieboom	RIGHT	0.260	0.154	18.2%	7.1%	14.3%	40.9%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle McGowin	RIGHT							P	$5,500	P	$4,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.379	0.208	36.3%	11.0%	16.9%	41.7%

Elite Plays – Victor Robles, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Toronto
			Chris Devenski							Sean Reid-Foley
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-140							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.298	33.3%	2.52	26.0%	31.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.345	0.355	34.0%	1.59	21.8%	31.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.295	35.3%	0.48	26.5%	37.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.391	0.325	36.4%	2.08	33.3%	45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chris Devenski
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 6	Salary Rank:			5 of 6	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	2.99	2.68	31.7%	8.2%	39.8%	28.2%	20.2%	94.1	17.1%
	2018	0	3.28	4.12	26.2%	6.6%	33.9%	34.2%	21.7%	94.3	14.3%
	L14	0	4.27	3.00	18.2%	0.0%	22.2%	55.6%	0.0%	93.9	9.1%

Devenski will technically draw the start today against the Blue Jays, but this will be a bullpen game for the Astros. Without knowing who the long reliever is going to be, we should above this situation completely. The exception would be if the Astros’ beat writers clue us in on who will be taking the reigns after Devenski.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Devenski and the Astros’ bullpen.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sean Reid-Foley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 6	Salary Rank:			3 of 6	Salary Rank:

	2018	6	4.55	5.40	26.8%	14.5%	37.5%	35.0%	20.0%	93.8	11.8%
	L14	2	4.34	2.00	34.9%	18.6%	45.0%	35.0%	25.0%	93.6	14.4%

Reid-Foley has pitched well in his last two starts, posting a 4.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He has some serious control issues and he’s facing a talented Astros’ offense, but we don’t have many pitching options to choose from in the early slate. It feels gross to type, but he’s actually my second favorite pitcher in these first three games. The main reason is because the Astros are rolling out their Triple-A lineup. George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve are all out of the lineup today.

Quick Breakdown: Reid-Foley is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Even though the Astros are missing some of their best hitters today, they are facing a pitcher with control issues in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The fact that I have interest in Sean Reid-Foley doesn’t mean that we automatically have to face the Astros’ offense. I certainly don’t expect him to come out and throw six scoreless innings, he’s just the lesser of evils when it comes to pitching. On the season, Reid-Foley has allowed a .355 xwOBA to lefties and a .325 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.248	0.160	27.4%	5.5%	35.5%	38.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Tony Kemp	LEFT	0.315	0.164	31.5%	11.9%	12.4%	45.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.312	0.177	28.3%	10.1%	23.4%	45.3%	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.283	0.123	29.9%	3.4%	10.7%	49.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.342	0.278	33.9%	8.9%	16.4%	43.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Tucker	LEFT	0.340	0.044	36.1%	8.2%	18.4%	47.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	J.D. Davis	RIGHT	0.314	0.055	26.2%	8.3%	21.7%	47.6%	3B	$2,200	1B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Max Stassi	RIGHT	0.327	0.176	30.5%	11.7%	29.7%	51.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9				0.000	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2B	$2,000	P	$6,200	P	$8,000
	Team Averages		0.310	0.131	32.6%	7.6%	18.7%	40.8%

Elite Plays – Tony Kemp, Tyler White

Secondary Plays – Jake Marisnick, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

I always hate bullpen starts when the team doesn’t clue us in on who the long reliever is going to be. It makes predicting matchups (and therefore fantasy production) extremely difficult. In order to have interest in the Blue Jays’ hitters, we have to believe in their talent and we have to like their respective price points. There isn’t really anything that jumps off the page for me today, but Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk, and Rowdy Tellez are all on my radar for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy McKinney	LEFT	0.365	0.193	34.4%	7.2%	25.8%	40.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.349	0.166	33.7%	3.7%	19.0%	34.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.398	0.260	40.3%	16.1%	26.9%	34.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.339	0.263	37.0%	5.6%	25.8%	35.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Rowdy Tellez	LEFT	0.458	0.472	41.9%	0.0%	13.9%	32.3%	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.353	0.194	33.6%	3.7%	12.8%	40.2%	3B	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Reese McGuire	LEFT	0.425	0.176	33.3%	10.5%	10.5%	26.7%	C	$2,200	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.272	0.061	44.4%	6.9%	30.6%	36.4%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Jonathon Berti	RIGHT											N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.370	0.223	37.3%	6.7%	20.7%	35.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Cincinnati
			Heath Fillmyer							Cody Reed
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-155							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.338	33.9%	0.66	14.0%	47.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.242	0.207	38.5%	0.00	21.6%	53.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.355	44.9%	1.85	16.6%	47.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.304	33.7%	1.48	24.1%	62.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Heath Fillmyer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			2 of 6	Salary Rank:			4 of 6	Salary Rank:

	2018	12	5.00	4.56	15.1%	9.5%	47.5%	38.8%	16.9%	92.6	8.3%
	L14	2	3.83	3.77	20.0%	1.8%	37.2%	30.2%	18.6%	92.6	10.6%

Fillmyer has not pitched well in his 12 starts this season, posting a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 39%. While he does have a decent ground ball rate, when that is combined with a low strikeout rate, it puts him at the mercy of BABIP every time he takes the mound. The Reds have been disappointing this season, but they play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and their projected lineup for today’s game has four batters with at least a .340 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fillmyer is not on my radar in the early slate, even though he’s not the worst option on the board.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Cody Reed
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 6	Salary Rank:			2 of 6	Salary Rank:
	2017	1	6.46	5.09	21.5%	24.1%	60.5%	32.6%	16.3%	94.3	13.3%
	2018	6	3.44	3.66	23.5%	7.7%	60.5%	34.8%	15.7%	92.5	10.8%
	L14	3	2.37	1.80	32.8%	7.8%	72.2%	36.1%	13.9%	92.1	13.5%

My Reed fade turned out to be a terrible call the other night. He continued his excellent form and had a nice outing against the Marlins. In six starts this season, he owns a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 61%. He has improved his control, which has done wonders for the rest of his game. He’s head and shoulders above the other pitching options in the early slate and is the clear SP1. The Royals aren’t terrible against southpaws, but they lose the use of the DH in this series and their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 22% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Reed is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals draw the worst matchup on the board. While they are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH in this series. On the season, Cody Reed has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. He has an elite ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. The only three hitters on my radar here are Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Salvador Perez. They all bat from the right side of the plate and all have high fly-ball rates against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.379	0.183	38.7%	6.7%	15.5%	30.4%	2B	$3,900	2B/OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.368	0.217	47.0%	2.3%	19.8%	41.5%	SS	$3,700	2B/SS	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.293	0.028	33.3%	9.4%	22.6%	46.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.348	0.167	43.6%	5.5%	22.8%	32.7%	C	$3,000	C	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.322	0.086	31.4%	12.4%	28.9%	47.1%	3B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.338	0.138	32.4%	21.1%	28.9%	37.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.293	0.107	27.5%	4.9%	16.8%	47.7%	3B	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.282	0.079	41.7%	6.1%	19.4%	53.5%	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Heath Fillmyer	RIGHT							P	$7,300	P	$6,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.328	0.126	37.0%	8.6%	21.8%	42.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds haven’t lived up to expectations this season, but draw a favorable matchup against Heath Fillmyer. In addition to having a low strikeout rate, he has allowed a .338 xwOBA to lefties and a .355 xwOBA to righties. His home run issues have mostly come against right-handed hitters, which brings Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez into play in all formats. Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett are also viable from the other side of the plate, as they each boast an xwOBA of at least .340 against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.349	0.204	38.1%	10.2%	25.1%	49.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.305	0.127	30.0%	4.9%	11.8%	34.2%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.441	0.148	40.2%	19.1%	14.8%	34.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.342	0.195	39.2%	7.0%	18.7%	39.5%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.365	0.223	45.2%	9.0%	24.0%	38.1%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.326	0.121	38.8%	10.0%	15.3%	41.5%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.291	0.124	48.1%	4.8%	21.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Cody Reed	LEFT	0.086	0.000	0.0%	12.5%	87.5%	0.0%	P	$7,500	P	$6,700	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.245	0.074	17.5%	8.0%	22.0%	40.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.306	0.135	33.0%	9.5%	26.7%	36.4%

Elite Plays – Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Boston
			Jimmy Yacabonis							Chris Sale
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-400							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.406	0.336	31.0%	1.42	16.4%	43.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.196	0.197	18.6%	0.00	38.3%	50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.358	32.1%	2.70	24.1%	36.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.242	0.247	27.9%	0.79	38.5%	43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jimmy Yacabonis
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$4,400	Salary:		$8,200
	Salary Rank:			19 of 24	Salary Rank:			19 of 24	Salary Rank:		22 of 24
	2017	0	6.67	4.35	8.9%	15.6%	48.5%	32.4%	27.9%	95.4	5.3%
	2018	5	4.30	6.34	20.8%	8.3%	39.6%	31.6%	19.4%	93.5	10.9%
	L14	1	3.70	5.14	24.1%	6.9%	41.2%	16.7%	22.2%	93.4	17.7%

The Orioles have yet to announce a starter for the second half of their double-header against the Red Sox. However, Yacabonis was slated to pitch last night’s game that was rained out, so he’s the obvious candidate to take the mound tonight. He has made five major league starts this season, posting a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that is facing the Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. He hasn’t been particularly good against left or right-handed hitters, so he could be in for a very short outing. He offers significantly more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid any and all Orioles’ pitchers.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,000	Salary:			$11,100	Salary:		$21,300
	Salary Rank:			2 of 24	Salary Rank:			2 of 24	Salary Rank:		2 of 24
	2017	32	2.58	2.90	36.2%	5.1%	38.7%	29.7%	18.5%	94.4	14.9%
	2018	26	2.26	2.00	38.5%	5.6%	44.9%	26.2%	27.7%	94.8	15.9%
	L14	3	2.16	2.45	34.5%	0.0%	38.9%	27.8%	11.1%	94.1	15.6%

Sale is expected to push for 90 pitches tonight against the Orioles, so this is the first time that we can actually consider him since coming back from injury. He has a lot going for him in this spot. His price has come down across the industry and he’s facing the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .270 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching. Throwing 90 pitches against Baltimore is like throwing 105 pitches against most teams.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .250 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate this season. It’s safe to avoid the Orioles’ offense in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.219	0.000	17.4%	15.6%	33.3%	57.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.278	0.216	28.0%	7.5%	30.0%	30.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,700
3	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.315	0.160	41.1%	5.3%	28.9%	53.5%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.325	0.108	31.0%	2.5%	9.9%	40.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.277	0.116	22.3%	6.7%	24.2%	67.8%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.307	0.186	30.0%	8.5%	25.5%	44.9%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,500
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.264	0.096	26.4%	6.3%	26.3%	41.5%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,400
8	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.281	0.000	22.6%	0.0%	27.9%	51.6%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	John Andreoli	RIGHT	0.163	0.000	25.0%	3.7%	37.0%	12.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
	Team Averages		0.270	0.098	27.1%	6.2%	27.0%	44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox should be able to cruise to a victory tonight against the Orioles. Granted, anything can happen in baseball, but I don’t see how this game stays competitive. Jimmy Yacabonis is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .358 xwOBA to righties. Fenway Park favors right-handed power, which puts Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts on my radar in all formats. You can complete the Boston stack with the left-handed bats of Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.447	0.267	44.6%	11.7%	15.2%	33.4%	OF	$5,200	OF	$6,100	RF	$11,300
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.389	0.185	29.1%	12.1%	13.3%	39.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,000
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.449	0.320	44.9%	11.5%	21.9%	44.0%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,300	RF	$9,800
4	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.372	0.246	36.8%	7.0%	17.0%	46.0%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,100
5	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.328	0.207	35.8%	8.2%	24.0%	44.5%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,200
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.402	0.205	36.2%	11.3%	21.4%	40.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,500
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.324	0.173	29.9%	7.9%	12.4%	36.9%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,200
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.249	0.112	25.7%	3.0%	26.9%	41.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$4,900
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.377	0.185	42.5%	9.6%	22.6%	38.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,400
	Team Averages		0.371	0.211	36.2%	9.1%	19.4%	40.5%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Atlanta								NY Mets
			Sean Newcomb							Jacob deGrom
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-165							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.338	41.0%	1.85	29.0%	43.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.263	0.265	23.8%	0.53	29.5%	43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.303	34.0%	0.80	20.8%	43.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.206	0.244	30.5%	0.34	34.5%	48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sean Newcomb
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:			11 of 22	Salary Rank:			7 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	2017	19	4.71	4.32	23.7%	12.5%	43.8%	27.0%	17.5%	93.7	11.2%
	2018	29	4.55	4.04	22.4%	11.3%	43.6%	35.3%	18.0%	93.0	9.7%
	L14	2	3.14	6.00	29.0%	5.3%	45.8%	24.0%	4.0%	94.3	10.2%

Newcomb has all of the skills needed to be an ace at the major league level, but he needs to work on his control. He had a 13% walk rate last season and it’s still above 11% this season. Even though he’s a large underdog tonight against the Mets, this is an intriguing matchup. New York has struggled against southpaws all season and their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .266 with a strikeout rate of 25%.

Quick Breakdown: If you can stomach targeting an underdog on the road, Newcomb should be on your radar in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$12,300	Salary:			$13,200	Salary:		$25,900
	Salary Rank:			1 of 22	Salary Rank:			1 of 22	Salary Rank:		1 of 22
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	31	2.83	1.77	32.0%	5.7%	45.8%	27.0%	24.8%	95.9	15.0%
	L14	3	2.23	2.57	38.2%	5.3%	53.5%	16.3%	25.6%	96.9	13.8%

From a raw projection standpoint, deGrom is clearly the number one pitching option of the slate. He’s been amazing this season, posting a 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a soft contact rate of 25%. The only downside with deGrom is that he’s expensive and that he plays for a Mets’ team that refuses to give him run support. If you can find the salary cap to comfortably play deGrom tonight, you absolutely should consider him as your SP1. If not, I have no issue going down to Chris Sale in a dream matchup against the Orioles.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have a very capable offense, but they are playing on the road against one of the best pitchers in baseball. We can cross the Braves off our list of potential targets tonight. Jacob deGrom has elite strikeout and soft contact rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.386	0.262	47.4%	8.5%	26.3%	41.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.305	0.136	32.2%	7.9%	12.6%	42.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.413	0.182	44.7%	11.2%	17.4%	34.5%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,000
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.385	0.150	41.0%	10.9%	9.0%	42.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
5	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.314	0.166	34.9%	10.8%	20.4%	45.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.314	0.089	49.2%	6.5%	26.4%	40.6%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
7	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.299	0.187	33.2%	6.2%	17.2%	36.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
8	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.274	0.223	33.3%	6.3%	28.9%	48.3%	3B	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,500	SS	$6,500
9	Sean Newcomb	LEFT	0.041	0.026	11.8%	0.0%	59.1%	81.8%	P	$7,600	P	$8,100	P	$16,000
	Team Averages		0.303	0.158	36.4%	7.6%	24.1%	45.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight, but they have struggled against left-handed pitching all season (as you can see from the table below). Their matchup against Sean Newcomb is mediocre at best. He has serious reverse-splits, holding righties to a .303 xwOBA, while allowing a .338 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. The only lefty in the Mets’ lineup with any sort of pop against southpaws is Michael Conforto and he feels a bit too expensive to target in a 12-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.312	0.148	31.4%	4.9%	21.1%	45.6%	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.264	0.015	28.6%	7.6%	29.0%	49.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,500
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.346	0.232	35.5%	8.7%	31.5%	52.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,200
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.280	0.111	36.8%	11.3%	27.4%	43.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,400
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.311	0.158	32.4%	6.9%	23.5%	28.2%	OF	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,500	RF	$6,400
6	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.322	0.137	37.8%	12.1%	24.1%	51.4%	C	$2,000	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
7	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.299	0.159	39.0%	9.5%	33.3%	52.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,300
8	Jack Reinheimer	RIGHT	0.086	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	SS	$2,000	OF/SS	$3,400	3B	$6,500
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.177	0.000	16.7%	3.4%	34.5%	56.3%	P	$12,300	P	$13,200	P	$25,900
	Team Averages		0.266	0.107	28.7%	7.2%	24.9%	50.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 26th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Houston at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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