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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-29 02:12:28

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Seattle at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Seattle Houston
Article Image James Paxton Article Image Doug Fister
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA -105 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.319 1 29.7% 13.4% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.392 18 37.5% 13.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.300 7 32.5% 24.1% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.269 5 24.3% 16.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Paxton
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $10,400
FPPG: 31.1 FPPG: 16.4
Pitcher Rating: 70.6 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.2 3.14 3.99 25.4% 3.3% 11.0% 48.8% 31.4% 34.5%
2016 19 97.8 3.59 3.72 22.3% 4.7% 11.7% 49.0% 30.0% 32.0%
2015 13 85.5 4.44 3.90 18.9% 9.8% 7.2% 48.3% 34.4% 29.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.67 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.301
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.90 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310

We have a single early game on the schedule today, which means you have to play the all-day slate if you want to have exposure to this game. Paxton has been in great form over his last five starts, posting a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4% and a walk rate of 3.3%. He induces a high ground ball rate and he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Astros, who are ranked fifth in team ISO and 25th in team K% against left-handed pitching this season.

Doug Fister
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 24.4 FPPG: 11.2
Pitcher Rating: 31.9 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 86.3 5.71 9.35 9.0% 8.3% 5.2% 43.9% 30.8% 35.5%
2016 31 95.8 4.98 4.42 14.7% 7.9% 5.8% 45.3% 34.5% 31.5%
2015 15 110.3 4.47 4.19 14.0% 5.4% 5.2% 44.6% 34.1% 29.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.17 — K%: 13.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.325
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.52 — K%: 15.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.351

Fister is coming off of potentially his worst six-game stretch of the season. In those outings, he had a 9.35 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 9%. I have been off of him all season thanks to his low strikeout rate and that trend will continue today against the Mariners. On the season, Seattle is ranked 11th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw a favorable matchup against Doug Fister and they get to face him in a neutral ballpark. They come into the game with a mediocre run projection, but this is a nice spot to target the lefties in this lineup. In 2016, Fister has allowed a .392 wOBA, 18 home runs, and a 37.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.339 0.120 21.6% 0.353 OF $3,000 OF $4,400
2 Seth Smith LEFT 0.348 0.183 34.0% 0.314 OF $3,000 OF $4,200
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.378 0.232 38.2% 0.271 2B $3,300 2B $5,300
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.366 0.234 34.9% 0.424 OF $4,000 OF $5,000
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.390 0.235 39.5% 0.222 3B $3,300 3B $4,500
6 Adam Lind LEFT 0.306 0.209 38.1% 0.319 1B $2,600 1B $4,000
7 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.298 0.144 30.1% 0.288 OF $2,800 OF $3,700
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.335 0.271 32.9% 0.261 C $2,500 C $3,400
9 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.290 0.066 21.6% 0.213 SS $2,700 SS $2,800
Team Averages — 0.339 0.188 32.3% 0.296 — — — —

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Nori Aoki, Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston

The Astros draw a fairly difficult matchup today against James Paxton. In addition to an above-average strikeout rate, Paxton has been very tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .300 wOBA this season. His reverse-splits are good for left-handed hitters, but the Astros don’t have a single lefty in their lineup today.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.401 0.281 38.8% 0.301 OF $3,900 OF $4,300
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.315 0.189 39.0% 0.155 3B $3,400 3B $4,100
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.381 0.194 38.4% 0.351 2B $3,700 2B $4,200
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.328 0.154 41.8% 0.316 SS $3,700 SS $4,100
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.370 0.263 31.4% 0.381 C $3,000 C $4,200
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.311 0.180 29.3% 0.235 1B $2,600 1B $3,200
7 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.269 0.114 42.4% 0.226 3B $3,000 1B/3B $2,400
8 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.345 0.212 50.0% 0.211 OF $2,100 OF $2,400
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.293 0.186 32.5% 0.248 OF $2,200 OF $2,300
Team Averages — 0.335 0.197 38.2% 0.269 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
Article Image Shelby Miller Article Image Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -180 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.410 9 38.6% 13.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.279 1 28.1% 19.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.325 5 31.9% 16.8% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.322 18 33.7% 23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Shelby Miller
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,700
FPPG: 15.0 FPPG: 5.9
Pitcher Rating: 41.7 Pitcher Rank: 25
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.4 5.15 4.73 12.3% 5.7% 6.3% 39.4% 37.4% 36.4%
2016 19 87.7 5.21 6.47 14.7% 9.3% 6.8% 41.8% 35.7% 35.7%
2015 33 98.4 4.16 3.02 19.9% 8.5% 9.2% 47.7% 34.1% 26.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.06 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.319
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.19 — K%: 15.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318

Miller shocked everyone in his last start by stymieing the Orioles’ offense in Baltimore. I’m putting little to no stock into that performance though, as his season has been downright dreadful. In his last 19 starts, he has a 6.47 ERA with a strikeout rate of 14.7%. He has given up a lot of had contact this year and he hasn’t fared well against hitters from either side of the plate. As a large underdog on the road, Miller is an easy fade in all formats.

Gio Gonzalez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,200
FPPG: 28.8 FPPG: 14.6
Pitcher Rating: 82.5 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 90.3 3.11 5.46 23.1% 4.6% 8.3% 55.4% 17.4% 22.8%
2016 31 97.3 3.93 4.51 22.5% 7.5% 9.4% 47.3% 29.9% 32.4%
2015 31 95.1 3.77 3.79 22.3% 9.1% 9.8% 53.8% 26.6% 28.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.85 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.42 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320

Gonzalez grades out as one of the top pitching options on the board, which says a lot about the lack of depth at the position. His numbers seem to be trending in the right direction, as he has a 3.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1% in his last six starts. The most encouraging stat during that stretch is his 55.4% ground ball rate. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked second in team wOBA and 26th in team K% against left-handed pitching. I have no qualms with Gonzalez tonight, but I never feel great about using him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks may be one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching this season, but they aren’t getting any love from the oddsmakers. They come into the game with the fourth lowest implied team total on the board. Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, and Yasmany Tomas are all interesting one-off targets, but the rest of the Diamondbacks’ offense can be avoided.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.317 0.158 27.4% 0.425 2B $3,500 2B $4,600
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.346 0.186 27.4% 0.253 SS $2,700 OF/SS $4,000
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.455 0.233 43.8% 0.433 1B $3,600 1B $5,500
4 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.367 0.246 52.9% 0.329 C $2,800 C $4,000
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.449 0.315 45.7% 0.387 OF $2,800 OF $4,300
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.313 0.183 35.6% 0.468 OF $3,800 3B/OF $3,500
7 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.272 0.174 45.5% 0.360 OF $2,700 OF $3,900
8 Kyle Jensen RIGHT 0.525 0.571 50.0% 0.305 OF $2,200 OF $2,400
9 Shelby Miller RIGHT 0.303 0.143 25.0% 0.310 P $6,500 P $4,700
Team Averages — 0.372 0.245 39.3% 0.363 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals’ offense has not been performing up to expectations recently. Despite having one of the highest implied team totals each night, they are ranked 24th in team wOBA over the last month of play. With that said, they are one of the top offenses to target tonight. Shelby Miller has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.405 0.265 33.2% 0.398 OF $4,100 2B/OF $5,600
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.301 0.140 33.0% 0.258 OF $3,600 OF $3,800
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.336 0.181 37.2% 0.252 3B $3,300 3B $3,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.275 0.145 33.9% 0.281 1B $3,100 1B $3,700
5 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.380 0.276 38.9% 0.358 SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,800
6 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.313 0.077 31.6% 0.293 OF $2,400 OF $2,900
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.140 30.2% 0.223 SS $2,600 SS $3,300
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.318 0.137 28.1% 0.000 C $2,500 C $3,000
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.185 0.051 19.2% 0.207 P $8,200 P $8,200
Team Averages — 0.312 0.157 31.7% 0.252 — — — —

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Drew

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Brian Goodwin

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
Article Image Clay Buchholz Article Image Bryan Mitchell
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -158 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.354 6 36.4% 14.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.369 0 25.0% 24.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.304 15 26.7% 16.6% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.370 1 35.6% 3.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 14.9 FPPG: 6.8
Pitcher Rating: 44.0 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 98.5 5.40 4.21 14.3% 8.9% 9.6% 38.1% 51.2% 38.8%
2016 20 96.9 5.16 5.00 15.3% 9.3% 9.5% 40.7% 43.3% 31.4%
2015 18 95.3 3.35 3.26 22.8% 4.9% 10.6% 48.3% 30.5% 23.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.68 — K%: 17.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.337
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.63 — K%: 20.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281

Buchholz should not be on your fantasy radar tonight, even though he is a sizable favorite against the Yankees. In 20 starts this season, he has a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.3% and a walk rate of 9.3%. He has given up a lot of fly balls recently, which could cause problems tonight against the Yankees with the short porch in right field. Buchholz has been good on the road in his career, but there are too many red flags to justify the play.

Bryan Mitchell
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,300 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 16.5 FPPG: 6.5
Pitcher Rating: 32.9 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 73.5 5.40 4.50 11.1% 8.6% 7.8% 50.0% 32.8% 32.3%
2016 4 73.5 5.40 4.50 11.1% 8.6% 7.8% 50.0% 32.8% 32.3%
2015 2 88.0 3.97 6.37 20.3% 11.2% 8.7% 50.0% 21.9% 31.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.87 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.357
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.47 — K%: 18.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.368

Mitchell has struggled in his four starts this season, posting a 5.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 11.1%. He draws one of the worst matchups in the slate, which helps explain why he is such a large underdog at home. On the season, the Red Sox are ranked fifth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. Both of these pitchers can be avoided in what I expect to be a high scoring affair.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and first in team wOBA over the last month of play. They come into the game with the second lowest implied team total in the slate. The sample size is obviously small, but Bryan Mitchell has allowed a .365+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.356 0.132 33.0% 0.252 2B $3,500 2B $4,400
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.337 0.144 29.4% 0.312 SS $3,800 SS $4,400
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.447 0.365 46.7% 0.471 1B $4,300 1B $5,700
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.392 0.212 33.6% 0.416 OF $4,200 OF $5,600
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.184 37.4% 0.505 1B $4,100 1B $5,100
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.327 0.181 35.8% 0.183 3B $2,900 1B/3B $3,500
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.382 0.268 38.7% 0.361 OF $3,500 OF $5,100
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.336 0.148 34.1% 0.184 C $2,900 C $3,400
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.431 0.262 34.0% 0.421 OF $3,100 OF $3,200
Team Averages — 0.372 0.211 35.9% 0.345 — — — —

Elite Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Travis Shaw, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees

The Yankees have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they come into the game with the tenth highest run projection in the slate. They draw an excellent matchup against Clay Buchholz, who has recently given up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. All of the left-handed hitters (and Gary Sanchez) are in play tonight at home.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.325 0.107 26.5% 0.284 OF $3,200 OF $4,700
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.325 0.131 27.4% 0.169 OF $3,100 OF $3,600
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.501 0.400 42.0% 0.443 C $3,900 C $5,100
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.314 0.165 30.8% 0.510 2B $2,200 2B $4,000
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.306 0.178 25.3% 0.322 SS $2,900 SS $3,700
6 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.268 0.158 31.9% 0.246 1B $2,800 1B $4,000
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.331 0.179 36.7% 0.302 C $2,700 C $4,000
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.317 0.162 32.7% 0.290 3B $2,600 3B $3,400
9 Mason Williams LEFT 0.399 0.000 33.3% 0.362 OF $2,800
Team Averages — 0.343 0.164 31.8% 0.325 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
Article Image Jake Arrieta Article Image Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -155 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.265 6 29.9% 25.1% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.317 5 33.1% 17.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.242 9 21.3% 23.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.296 7 34.8% 23.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $11,500
FPPG: 38.9 FPPG: 21.4
Pitcher Rating: 85.2 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 96.6 4.13 4.11 23.0% 9.8% 11.8% 50.0% 28.8% 22.2%
2016 30 100.7 3.92 2.85 24.2% 9.6% 10.5% 52.8% 28.3% 25.1%
2015 33 104.2 2.75 1.77 27.1% 5.5% 11.1% 56.2% 22.8% 22.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 27.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.240
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.24 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.236

Arrieta hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was last season, but a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.2% is nothing to scoff at. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against the Pirates, who are ranked 16th in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. I have Arrieta ranked as the top pitching option in the slate, but the question is whether or not he is worth the price. Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, Francisco Liriano, and Jose De Leon are all viable plays that are considerably cheaper.

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 27.7 FPPG: 14.9
Pitcher Rating: 70.8 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 78.8 3.88 5.25 20.0% 3.8% 9.6% 44.2% 33.8% 38.5%
2016 17 85.9 3.53 3.49 20.5% 3.5% 8.5% 52.1% 26.7% 33.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.00 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.26 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.340

Taillon has pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of 3.5%. The biggest issue has been his inability to pitch deep into games. In his last five starts, he is averaging only 78.8 pitches per start. Taillon draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cubs, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Run support could be a big issue with Jake Arrieta pitching opposite him.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a fairly difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon and they have to face him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They come into the game with the tenth lowest implied team total in the slate. In 2016, Taillon has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.358 0.169 28.4% 0.470 OF $3,800 OF $5,200
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.387 0.249 40.6% 0.318 3B $4,200 3B/OF $4,700
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.408 0.277 38.6% 0.382 1B $4,300 1B $5,300
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.162 32.7% 0.355 2B $3,000 2B $4,300
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.281 0.096 26.6% 0.365 OF $3,000 OF $3,700
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.311 0.159 29.2% 0.304 SS $2,400 SS $3,500
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.348 0.208 35.0% 0.480 C $3,100 C/OF $3,600
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.297 0.141 27.2% 0.342 SS $3,000 2B/3B $3,700
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.284 0.175 37.5% 0.176 P $11,000 P $11,500
Team Averages — 0.336 0.182 32.9% 0.355 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are ranked sixth in team wOBA over the last month of play, but they draw a tough matchup tonight against Jake Arrieta. On the season, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA. He has also limited the hard contact against him with a 25.1% hard contact rate this year.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.334 0.133 28.9% 0.337 1B $2,900 1B $2,800
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.377 0.181 39.8% 0.327 1B $3,200 1B/OF $2,300
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.335 0.177 36.9% 0.458 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.334 0.207 36.7% 0.245 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.388 0.276 39.8% 0.406 3B $3,800 3B $4,300
6 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.347 0.259 41.4% 0.445 OF $3,200 2B/SS $3,400
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.302 0.063 24.1% 0.341 C $2,600 C $2,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.292 0.106 25.1% 0.239 SS $2,100 SS $2,700
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.068 0.000 6.7% 0.351 P $7,200 P $7,800
Team Averages — 0.309 0.156 31.0% 0.350 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
Article Image Chris Tillman Article Image Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -130 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.314 8 30.5% 22.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.326 5 35.0% 22.5%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.318 11 32.6% 17.6% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.344 21 34.8% 22.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 30.8 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 43.6 Pitcher Rank: 24
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 93.3 4.61 4.73 19.7% 8.2% 7.1% 31.0% 42.9% 19.1%
2016 29 98.1 4.56 3.84 20.0% 9.1% 8.7% 40.5% 37.0% 31.7%
2015 31 94.9 4.69 4.99 16.2% 8.6% 7.1% 43.5% 35.4% 26.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328

Tillman got off to a hot start this season, but has come back down to Earth since. In 20 starts overall, he has a 4.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Blue Jays and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. On the season, Toronto is ranked seventh in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Francisco Liriano
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,400
FPPG: 24.5 FPPG: 12.0
Pitcher Rating: 72.7 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 101.8 3.71 3.20 25.0% 8.7% 13.3% 52.2% 30.4% 33.3%
2016 28 96.0 4.48 4.88 22.4% 11.9% 11.3% 51.5% 30.4% 34.8%
2015 31 96.2 3.38 3.38 26.5% 9.1% 14.3% 51.2% 26.3% 24.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.36 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 23.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308

Liriano is a lot like Gio Gonzalez or Jaime Garcia in that it never feels right putting him into a cash game lineup. He is trending in the right direction though, as he has a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% in his last four starts. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 17th in team K% against left-handed pitching this season. If Liriano can get that first pitch strike going tonight, he could have a monster fantasy outing at a very cheap price point.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles come into tonight’s game with a slightly above-average run projection. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Francisco Liriano, who has been in good form over the last month of play. Even with the good form, Liriano has allowed a .344 wOBA and 21 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.247 0.099 30.3% 0.227 OF $3,500 OF $3,000
2 Chris Davis LEFT 0.317 0.187 33.6% 0.230 1B $3,000 1B $3,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.395 0.204 36.8% 0.289 3B $3,800 3B/SS $3,800
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.266 0.220 36.7% 0.322 OF $3,500 OF $3,900
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 1.040 1.429 66.7% 0.667 1B $2,600 1B $2,300
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.272 0.154 21.0% 0.223 2B $3,000 2B $2,900
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.271 0.091 32.5% 0.277 C $2,700 C $2,700
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.330 0.190 44.9% 0.412 SS $2,400 SS $2,700
9 Drew Stubbs RIGHT 0.281 0.061 32.1% 0.216 OF $2,300 OF $2,700
Team Averages — 0.380 0.293 37.2% 0.318 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of the top offenses in baseball this season. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest implied team totals in the slate, as they square off against Chris Tillman at home. Tillman has allowed a hard contact rate of at least 30% to both left and right-handed hitters. A Blue Jays’ stack is in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.365 0.173 30.5% 0.313 2B $3,500 2B $3,500
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.401 0.273 41.3% 0.406 3B $4,600 3B $4,900
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.379 0.276 38.6% 0.422 1B $4,200 1B $4,600
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.358 0.215 41.1% 0.407 OF $3,900 OF $4,700
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.186 31.4% 0.333 C $3,000 C $3,500
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.324 0.199 34.7% 0.269 SS $3,200 SS $4,000
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.339 0.211 38.7% 0.234 OF $2,900 OF $3,300
8 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.324 0.196 44.1% 0.421 1B $2,500 1B $3,500
9 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.293 0.109 26.4% 0.288 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
Team Averages — 0.346 0.204 36.3% 0.344 — — — —

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious