NFL Preseason Picks: Saturday, August 22nd
Greetings Grinders! Week 2 of the NFL Preseason continues tonight. Before we get into my picks, I want to mention a couple of quick things. First, these are just the guys that jumped out at me based on reading beat writers thoughts and reviewing game logs. If you like someone not mentioned don’t be afraid to use them. Second, I’ve decided to tweak my strategy a bit. So far this preseason we have seen several starting WRs hit value in limited snaps. I’ve learned that in the right situation a veteran WR getting 15 snaps is better than a rookie getting 30. The same holds true to a certain extent with RBs. Do not be afraid to mix in a few starters on your team. I’ve noticed the winning GPP lineups have been a mix of starters and scrubs. Below are my thoughts on tonight’s slate. I’ve tried to mention any notable injuries but if you use someone I don’t mention do a quick Google and Twitter search to make sure they are playing.
Miami at Carolina
Miami:
QB: Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore – The Dolphins starters are expected to run about 20 plays or four series. That should carry them into the second quarter. After Tannehill, we will see veteran Matt Moore, then journeyman Josh Freeman. I like them in the order I listed them here.
RB: Damien Williams and LaMichael James – Lamar Miller is the clear cut starter. After Miller, there is an intense battle brewing for the backup RB spot, though. I think both LaMichael James and Damien Williams are in play here. After them, Jay Ajayi will see some snaps, but that’s probably digging too deep on an eight-game slate.
WR: Rishard Matthews and Kenny Stills – Of all the Dolphins receivers, I’m the most excited about Rishard Matthews. The four-year veteran has mostly played with the starters in camp. Matthews only played 17 snaps last week, but that number should increase slightly this week. As far as Stills goes, he returned this week from injury and has looked good in practice. He’s always a threat for a long touchdown, but he isn’t necessarily a safe option on this slate.
TE: Dion Sims and Jordan Cameron – The expected increase in playing time for starters should put Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims in play this week. Last week they played 9 and 13 snaps respectively. That number should grow to around 20 this week. They make good but not great plays. Of the two, Cameron is safer.
Bonus: The Miami Defensive line was so good in practice this week that the Panthers actually had to ask them to throttle it down a bit so the Panthers could run their offense. When selecting a defense I like to chase sacks. The Miami defense is one of the better choices for this slate.
Carolina:
QB: Joe Webb – Cam Newton will start for the Panthers and Derek Anderson will play after him. With the lack of talent at WR, I don’t expect much from either of them. If you force me to take a Panthers QB, I’m going with Joe Webb who should hopefully see some second half reps against worse defenders. There are better QB situations on this slate to take advantage of than Carolina though.
RB: Jordan Todman, Fozzy Whittaker, Cameron Artis-Payne – The role of starter Jonathan Stewart is secure. Where things heat up is the battle for backup RB. It appears to be a three-way race between Todman, Whittaker, and Artis-Payne. They each project for about eight carries which doesn’t really put any of them in play on an eight-game slate.
WR: Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery, Brenton Bersin, Corey Brown – I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t see how this Panthers offense can score. Kelvin Benjamin is out for the season with an ACL injury and Devin Funchess will not play tonight. That leaves Ginn, Cotchery, Bersin, and Brown to pick up the slack. I like Bersin the best out of this group, but that isn’t saying much.
TE: Greg Olsen – If there is one guy on the Carolina offense I would play it is Greg Olsen. There is no price penalty for selecting starters in preseason. At a position like TE, you can live with your choice catching 2-3 passes for 25 yards.
Baltimore at Philadelphia
Philadelphia
QB: Matt Barkley and Tim Tebow – The Eagles will get their first look at Sam Bradford tonight as he makes his preseason debut. I would expect 15-20 plays for him which really isn’t enough to use him. After him, we will see Sanchez and then Barkley and Tebow. The good news is that the Eagles fast-paced offense leads to more plays being run for both the Eagles and their opponent. Both Barkley and Tebow are in play in this one though I wouldn’t call them elite options. Barkley is the better passer and thus has a higher ceiling, but Tebow’s running ability gives him a nice floor.
RB: Raheem Mostert -This situation is pretty crowded. DeMarco Murray should play a few snaps this wee. We could even see a little Darren Sproles. There will also be a few carries for Ryan Matthews. That doesn’t leave much for anyone else, but I think Raheem Mostert will squeeze in a few. He carried 11 times last week for 33 yards and a TD.
WR: Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, and Josh Huff – In weeks 2 and 3 of the preseason, a case can be made for using starting wide receivers. Jordan Matthews was great this week in practice and he should see plenty of targets while the first team is on the field. We also can’t ignore what rookie Nelson Algholor was able to do last week, but I would use some caution with chasing the points there. Last but not least, Josh Huff was disappointing last week as he was targeted just once. Look for the Eagles to force a few more his way this week.
Baltimore
QB: Matt Schaub – We should see starter Joe Flacco for most of the first quarter and then Matt Schaub after him. You could go either direction here. With the Eagles fast-paced offense on the other side, there should be plenty of reps for both.
RB: Lorenzo Taliaferro and Javorius Allen – Justin Forsett is still the starter and will run with the ones. I think Taliaferro and Allen are the backs you want though based on expected volume.
WR: Steve Smith and Kamar Aiken – This shouldn’t surprise anyone but Steve Smith was running his mouth in joint practices this week. He promised the Philadelphia media they would get their look at rookie CB Eric Rowe. When Steve Smith talks, he usually backs it up. Other than Smith, I like Kamar Aiken who should see more snaps and targets than last week.
TE: Maxx Williams – My boy Maxx Williams saw three targets last week and hauled in two of them for 36 yards. He’s in play again this week for all the same reasons that I used him last week.
Chicago at Indianapolis
QB: Matt Hasselbeck – Starter Andrew Luck will get the first-team reps here followed by Matt Hasselback and then Bryan Bennett. You could make a case for the Luck/Hilton stack (more on that in a second) but I like Hasselbeck slightly better here.
RB: Zurlon Tipton and Josh Robinson – Frank Gore will get the start but he is old. He won’t see an extended amount of time. After Gore, backup Daniel “Boom” Herron is out which should open some reps for the young guys. Zurlon Tipton and Josh Robinson were great last week and either can be used again. We also should see Vick Ballard steal a few reps in the second half but probably not enough to use him.
WR: TY Hilton, Duron Carter, Phillip Dorsett – As I mentioned with Matthews above, there are certain types of receivers who can be used in preseason. Those are younger guys who see a lot of targets. Hilton sat out last week for personal reasons, but he should play tonight. I could see Hilton getting 5 to 6 targets and maybe a TD. The Luck/Hilton stack here could be sneaky. If you go with Hasselbeck, you will want to handcuff him to one of the backups. Duron Carter and Phillip Dorsett are the best options there.
TE: “(player-popup)Sean McGrath”:/players/sean-mcgrath-16630– The snap count numbers for theColts are a bit inflated since they played the eagles last week. The TE snaps went like this, though. Fleener (23), McGrath (24), Swoope (25). Fleener will not play tonight. That should give a bump to the other two.
Chicago
QB: Jimmy Clausen – We will see Jay Cutler play with the starters and then Jimmy Clausen with the backups and Jordan Palmer with the scrubs. If I have to pick a Bears QB, I lean slightly to Clausen over Cutler but it is close. Palmer isn’t in play at all.
RB: Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey – Last week Matt Forte didn’t play at all. That should have helped clarify the backup RB position but it really didn’t. Shaun Draughn opened as the N. 2 back and then only played 12 snaps. Ka’Deem Carey so the most work with 23 snaps and Michael Ford only played 7 snaps. With Forte playing most of the first quarter, this situation will get even muddier. On an eight-game slate, I’m staying away as there aren’t enough carries to support Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey, Draughn, and Ford.
WR: Marquess Wilson – With Alshon Jeffery out and Kevin White on the PUP list, the Bears need to see what they have at WR. Newcomer Eddie Royal will see some looks but the guy I like here is Marquess Wilson. He could play most of the first half and should see some targets from the slot. Cameron Meredith is another name to watch, but that is probably digging too deep.
TE: Martellus Bennett – As I mentioned before, TE is an unpredictable position. In most cases, I would rather just take the starter if he usually sees targets in the passing game. Martellus Bennett fits the bill there and makes a decent option tonight.
Jacksonville at New York Giants
Giants
QB: Ryan Nassib – The Giants first team offense has been notoriously bad every year under Tom Coughlin. Last week, against the Bengals Eli Manning and company managed just one first down in four possessions. I would rather use backup Ryan Nassib against the Jaguars second team defense.
RB: Orleans Darkwa – The Giants top three is pretty much set at RB. We know what Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, and Shane Vereen can do. The battle for the last RB spot between Akeem Hunt and Orleans Darkwa has been intense. Last week Darkwa carried nine times to Hunt’s three. I like Darkwa here.
WR: Preston Parker, Geramy Davis and Corey Washington – The Giants have quite a bit of depth behind Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz. Tonight should go a long way in determining the last few spots at WR. Last week Dwayne Harris played the most snaps at 34 but only had one catch. Davis, Washington, and Parker each played 20-25 snaps. They are the guys you want if you are looking for a Nassib handcuff.
TE: Adrien Robinson and Jerome Cunningham – The battle at the bottom of the roster between Adrien Robinson and Jerome Cunningham is heating up. Tonight is the last chance for one of them to separate. Both of them are just deep sleepers for DFS purposes, but they should see plenty of snaps.
Jaguars
QB: Blake Bortles -If I’m going Jacksonville QB it will be Blake Bortles. Younger QBs tend to see more reps in the preseason. Bortles attempted 11 passes last week and that number should grow this week.
RB: Storm Johnson – T.J. Yeldon is a game-time decision. I will update that situation on Twitter before lock. If he doesn’t play the reps should be split between Denard Robinson, Storm Johnson, and Bernard Pierce. I will take Storm Johnson here with Robinson closely behind.
WR: Rashad Greene and Arrelious Benn – Marquise Lee and Neal Sterling are out tonight. That should open up some reps for Rashad Greene who was limited to 8 plays last week. Gus Bradley wants to get him more plays. We could also get an extended look at Arrelious Benn.
TE: Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor – With starter Julius Thomas out until the regular season the Jaguars are a bit thin at TE. Last week, Clay Harbor led the team with four targets. He caught two of them for 35 yards and a TD. He’s the better play between Lewis and Harbor.
New England at New Orleans
New England
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo – In yesterday’s final scrimmage Tom Brady nearly all of the first-team reps while Garoppolo played sparingly. According to several sources, Brady is only expected to play a few series tonight. If Brady remains suspended for a few games in the regular season Garoppolo needs all the work he can get. He’s expected to play somewhere close to a half tonight. He’s my top play at QB and as long as his offensive line holds up he should deliver.
RB: Jonas Gray -Starter LeGarrette Blount is not expected to play tonight. I’m expecting a bump in reps for both Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden. I also think James White is in the mix. Right now I have them ranked Gray, Bolden, then White.
WR: Chris Harper – This is a bit of a deep sleeper, but Harper did catch seven passes last week for 48 yards. With Tyms, Edelman, LaFell, and Dobson still gimpy Harper should see plenty of reps again tonight. I also like Brandon Gibson and Josh Boyce depending on which WRs are out tonight. Check my twitter at sethayatesDFS before lock and I will have an update on this.
TE: Jimmy Mundine – I would love to use Gronkowski if we learn he is getting enough reps. So far I don’t believe that to be the case. If you want a New England TE Jimmy Mundine is your guy. He was only targeted once last week, but that should change tonight.
New Orleans
QB: Ryan Griffin – The situation at QB is crowded for the Saints. Drew Brees didn’t play last week which allowed the Saints to look at Luke McCown, Garret Grayson, and Ryan Griffin. If Brees tonight that limits the opportunity the other three will see. I think Brees will play a few series, then McCown for maybe a quarter, then Grayson and Griffin. I think that really hurts all of their value, but we can’t ignore Griffin who was 10 of 17 for 112 yards and a TD last week.
RB: Khiry Robinson – Last week the Saints RB that you wanted was Khiry Robinson. He ran twice for 35 yards and caught three balls for 37 and a TD. I don’t see a reason to target anyone else in this Saints backfield. The only other option would be T Hightower who ran 12 times for 31 yards last week.
WR: Brandon Coleman – I was excited about WR Brandon Coleman even before I learned he could see some reps with the starters tonight. Another player worth consider is Willie Snead who caught two passes for 30 yards last week. He needs a strong showing to make the team. I would also consider Seantavious Jones as well.
TE: Josh Hill – Even though the depth chart says Benjamin Watson is the starter Josh Hill is the guy we want. Hill caught three passes for 40 yards last week. Orson Charles is also in play. He is suspended for Week 1 of the regular season, but the Saints haven’t cut him. That means they must see something in him.
Oakland at Minnesota
Oakland
QB: Christian Ponder – Can I interest anyone in a Christian Ponder revenge game? Ponder needs a strong performance in his return to Minnesota tonight to hold off Matt McGloin for the backup job.
RB: Trent Richardson – I recommend Trent Richardson last week and he didn’t disappoint. Oh wait, yes he did. He had a shot at a TD but has absolutely no vision and didn’t make the cutback. I would link the video here but watching it still gives me PTSD. I’m still not afraid to go back to the well with Richardson tonight, though. He’s been getting first-team reps in practice as starter Latavius Murray already has his role secured.
WR: Amari Cooper and Brice Butler – The Raiders are very deep at WR for a change. Some guys at the back end of the roster need a good showing tonight. Brice Butler is one of those guys. The third-year pro played well last week with seven catches for 57 yards and a TD. That earned him some second-team reps this week and hopefully a few more snaps tonight. Amari Cooper is also a threat to catch a long TD tonight and Rod Streater is playing his first action since returning from the Non-Football Injury list. He’s a bit of a wild card play.
TE: Mychal Rivera – None of the Raiders TEs even recorded a target last week. I like their WRs a lot better. If you insist on using one anyways, I recommend Mychal Rivera
Minnesota
QB: Teddy Bridgewater – This recommendation is based on the assumption that Bridgewater will play closer to a half than a quarter tonight. If that changes I will let you know. Either way, though, I’m not recommending Shaun Hill or Mike Kafka here. Last week the Rams showed that the Raiders are vulnerable to the deep ball. I don’t mind taking a chance on Teddy Bridgewater hoping he opens the game with a couple long passes like the Rams did last week.
RB: Dominique Williams and Joe Banyard – I don’t expect Adrian Peterson to play much tonight. That should leave the starter reps for Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata. I don’t mind McKinnon in that role. If you want to chase reps though you need to look at Dominque Williams and Joe Banyard. Williams had six rushes last week and Banyard had four. Williams is the better play.
WR: Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs – I’m expecting Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson to run with the starters. Either of them could be teamed with Bridgewater if you want. If you are looking to take a flyer on a backup I like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thelen but Cordarrelle Paterson is also in play here.
TE: Kyle Rudolph – As I’ve mentioned a few times I don’t care for chasing reps at the TE position. Kyle Rudolph caught two passes last week for 24 yards. A similar effort tonight would be just fine.
Denver at Houston
Denver:
UPDATE: Peyton Manning will play between a quarter and a half. He’s in play and this really hurts Osweiler’s value.
QB: Brock Osweiler – Peyton Manning didn’t play at all last week. He will make his preseason debut tonight, but he won’t play long enough to be DFS relevant. Last week, Osweiler played the entire first half, but the Broncos looked to establish the run and Osweiler had a mediocre game. I think the Broncos give Osweiler a chance to air it out tonight.
RB: Ronnie Hillman, Monte Ball, Juwan Thompson – As I mentioned above, the Broncos pounded the rock last week. Hillman, Ball, and Thompson each carried the ball eight times. I’m expecting a pretty even split again tonight. In this situation, you want to use the guy that you think scores a TD.
WR: Jordan Norwood – If we learn that Demaryius Thomas will play close to a quarter, I think he is in play. If not, I will probably chase reps with guys like Jordan Norwood, Bennie Fowler, and Cody Latimer.
WR: Kevin Norwood -The Broncos didn’t look to pass the ball much last week, but that will hopefully change this week. I like Cody Latimer, Kevin Norwood, and Jordan Norwood the most in this situation.
TE: Virgil Green – Last week Virgil Green did his best to make the Broncos forget who Julius Thomas is. Green caught five balls for 45 yards and a TD. He was easily Osweiler’s favorite target and he is one of my favorite TEs on this slate.
Houston:
QB: Ryan Mallet and Bryan Hoyer: Last week Brian Hoyer started the game and led one TD drive on which he went 2/4. He was then pulled for Ryan Mallet who went 10/11. Tonight the situation will be reversed. Mallet will start and Hoyer will come on in relief. All we need out of our QB is about 100 yards and a TD. I think both Hoyer and Mallet are capable of that. I like Hoyer slightly better though playing against the second-team defense.
RB: Kenny Hilliard and Chris Polk – The Texans are looking to replace Arian Foster who is out for the season. Three backs carried the ball heavily last week. They were; Alfred Blue (9), Kenny Hilliard (13), and Chris Polk (10). Hilliard’s carries were mostly garbage time behind the third-team offensive line. I like Blue to gets some additional carries and Polk to get about the same tonight. They are both in play.
WR: Jalen Strong – The Texans don’t have a whole lot to love at WR after DeAndre Hopkins and Cecil Shorts. Some of the beat writers I have read are excited about Chandler Worthy and Keith Mumphery but they are both deep sleepers. The only guy really feel comfortable with here is Jalen Strong.
TE: C.J. Fiedorowicz – With the options on this slate I think we can do better than a Houston TE. If you insist, though, C.J. Fiedorowicz is your guy. He only caught one ball last week for six yards though so don’t get too excited.
San Diego at Arizona
Arizona
QB: Drew Stanton – Carson Plamer should start again and play close to a quarter. After that we should see Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas. Neither are anything special. I don’t care for this situation at all. Palmer won’t see enough snaps and Stanton just isn’t that good even though he’s the best play of the group tonight.
RB: David Johnson – Arizona fans are excited to watch the return of a RB named Johnson. Most of them will be looking at the wrong one, though. Chris Johnson was signed this week and should see a few reps. He’s not the one you want, though. David Johnson will see his first action tonight since injuring his hamstring. The plan is for him to get a lot of work during the second and third quarters. That sounds good to me!
WR: J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown – With Micahel Floyd injured the Cardinals need to iron out their WR situation. As of now they have Larry Fitzgerald and a bunch of guys. John Brown should run with the starters tonight, but I’m looking at the guys behind him. Namely, JJ Nelson and Jaron Brown. Of the two, Jaron Brown has been better in camp and I think makes the better play.
TE: Ifeanyi Momah – Our boy Ifeanyi Momah is no friend to writers. I copied and pasted that name to make sure it is spelled right. We can’t ignore his production last week, though. He’s a worthy play tonight as he caught three passes for 31 yards last week. He’s not the best play but still pretty solid.
San Diego:
QB: Kellen Clemens – If you watched the Chiefs and Cardinals last week you had the chance to see Chase Daniel hang three TDs on the Cardinals. Phillip Rivers will start and see 15-20 plays and then we should see Kellen Moore. Maybe this is chasing points but I can’t ignore a guy playing against a defense that allowed three TDs to Chase Daniels.
RB: Brandon Oliver and Danny Woodhead – I’m hearing that Melvin Gordon is unlikely to play tonight. If that changes I will update this article and on Twitter. Even if Gordon does play, I still like Brandon Oliver and to a lesser extent Danny Woodhead. Oliver received ten carries last week and Woodhead is a PPR monster.
WR: Dontrelle Inman and Austin Pettis – The Chargers have quite a bit of depth and WR and need to determine who will make the roster. The top four or five spots are set with Allen, Floyd, Johnson, and Jones. Some of the younger guys should get a long look tonight. Dontrelle Inman and Austin Pettis are two of those guys.
TE: Ladarius Green – With Antonio Gates suspended for Weeks 1-4 the Charges need to straighten out their situation at TE. Ladarius Green played just four snaps last week but should be closer to fifteen this week. Kyle Miller and Brian Parker also might be worth a look here.