The Relief Brief: Friday, September 2nd

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-03 02:59:08

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Friday night features 14 games. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

With only four games played yesterday, most bullpens are well rested for tonight.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Dylan Bundy appears to have hit a wall in his last three starts. In his last 14 plus innings (last three starts), Bundy has allowed 12 earned runs, four home runs and nine walks. Despite the short outings, Bundy has maintained a steady pitch count in the low 90’s, but his inefficiency has led to those shorter outings. Expect to see plenty of the Orioles bullpen tonight. The Baltimore ‘pen is one of the most overrated units in the league. The average fan/DFS player (which you are not, since you’re reading this on RotoGrinders) has the perception of dominance because of Zach Britton, but the rest of the bullpen is mediocre at best. The bullpen as a whole (including Britton) posted a 3.96 SIERA in August to go along with a 1.69 HR/9 rate.

Andrew Cashner has made six starts for the Marlins since being traded and has had mixed results through those outings. In three of those outings, Cashner has a combined 17 innings with three earned runs. In the other three outings, Cashner has a combined 10.1 innings with 11 earned runs. Even at his best this season, Cashner has not pitched deep into games. This Marlins bullpen has been very suspect over the last month, and the Indians are in a great spot (geographically and current form) to take advantage of said bullpen.

Alex Reyes had modest success in his first major league start by going just shy of five innings while allowing a single run to Oakland. Reyes rarely pitched deep into games in the minor league level as he has struggled with control. Don’t expect a long outing from Reyes tonight either, despite the favorable opposition. Reyes does have great strikeout stuff, however. Expect the Cardinals bullpen to take over around the fifth to sixth inning. The Cards bullpen has been in good form lately with a 3.22 SIERA in August. There’s not much to like here in terms of picking on the Cardinals pitching tonight.

Anthony DeSclafani has quietly been pitching very well since he returned in early June. DeSclafani has gone for six or more innings in 12 of his 15 starts since that time, and has posted a 2.96 ERA with a very respectable 3.87 xFIP. We all know how bad the Reds bullpen is, and that leads me to believe that DeSclafani will get some extended run in hopes of limiting the bullpen’s workload tonight. This team has nothing to play for, so they won’t hesitate to leave him in a bit longer tonight, which takes away some appeal from attacking the Reds ‘pen.

Alex Cobb will make his long awaited return to the big leagues after almost two years away from the big club. While most of us are happy to see him battle his way back from Tommy John surgery, we have to temper our expectations for his outing tonight. In eight minor league starts this season, Cobb didn’t pitch beyond four innings in any of them. I think the Rays will take a cautious approach as they send Cobb out to face the Blue Jays tonight. He may battle through five innings at the most, but after that, it’ll be the Jays against the Rays bullpen. The Rays ‘pen has allowed the third most HR/9 on the season.

A.J. Cole has two starts this season, and has failed to impress thus far. While 12 strikeouts through 12.2 innings is encouraging, those strikeouts are paired with an xFIP of 5.72. Again, it’s a small sample size, but Cole will be facing a Mets lineup that has been waking up a bit lately. On the season, the Nationals bullpen has been a strong unit, but over the last 30 days they have struggled with a much lower strikeout rate and a higher SIERA. I think this unit is susceptible to giving up some runs tonight.

A.J. Griffin has baffled us at times this season by randomly shutting down high powered offenses like the Indians and Blue Jays, while also getting lit up by the Twins and Angels among others. A closer look at Griffin’s advanced stats shows an xFIP of 4.94 and a FIP of 5.20, so we can safely agree that there is more bad than there is good here. Griffin will face the Astros tonight, and while he may battle through five to six innings, I don’t expect him to get through his outing unscathed before passing things off to the Rangers ‘pen. This Texas bullpen is showing signs of improvement of late, but their SIERA still sits above four.

Jorge De La Rosa has been his usual up and down self this season. DLR is maintaining his high GB%, but is also continuing to struggle with walks and HR’s. The Diamondbacks have the best team wOBA in baseball when facing lefties, and should be able to get into this Rockies ‘pen around the sixth inning tonight. The Rockies had eight blown saves in August, which led all of baseball. For the season, they are allowing a 1.08 HR/9 along with a 4.02 SIERA.

Brett Oberholtzer will get his second consecutive start tonight as he faces the Mariners. In his last outing, Oberholtzer lasted just three innings. On the season, Oberholtzer’s high pitch count is just 64, so we can predict a short outing from B.O. tonight (seriously, that’s not a fun last name to type out, so B.O. it is…). The Angels bullpen has the fourth worst SIERA in baseball this season, and they will be asked to work overtime tonight due to the starting pitcher.

Clayton Richard has three straight quality starts since being moved into the rotation for the Padres. Richard has amassed 18 innings and has allowed just two runs in that stretch. Tonight, Richard gets a plus matchup against the Dodgers, who struggle mightily against lefties of all sorts (how many sorts are there?). Richard hasn’t exceeded 94 pitches in any outing yet this season, but he may get some extended run against this struggling (versus lefties) offense, especially considering that the Padres bullpen has a SIERA of 4.50 over the last 30 days.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Miami Marlins
5. Texas Rangers
6. Washington Nationals

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Blue Jays purchased the contract of Matt Dermody from AAA. Dermody has pitched very well across the minors this season and could be utilized as a lefty specialist.

The Yankees purchased the contract of Jonathan Holder from AAA. Holder posted 101 strikeouts through 65 plus innings in the minors, and has a real shot to be a high impact arm for the Yankees bullpen.

The Mets recalled Gabriel Ynoa from AAA. Ynoa is expected to be a long arm out of the ‘pen.

The Mariners activated Evan Scribner from the 60-day DL. Scribner has a chance to make an impact on a recently struggling ‘pen.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Both the Rockies and the Marlins blew 8 saves apiece in the month of August, and both bullpens are candidates to pick on tonight.

The Red Sox called up Yoan Moncada to the big leagues. I’m excited to see him play. This serves no purpose, other than to share my excitement with you! Hurray!

Feel free to follow me on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend