MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-08 01:48:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Atlanta					Pittsburgh
			Mike Foltynewicz					Ivan Nova
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-147					7.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.329	33.5%	8.7%	21.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.362	37.5%	3.7%	13.6%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.322	26.7%	5.0%	20.9%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.306	31.8%	4.4%	22.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	22	4.13	4.31	21.1%	6.7%	41.2%	37.4%	29.8%

First off, happy Friday everyone. We made it! We are awarded with a 15-game slate on tap Friday – five early games and ten late games. FanDuel and DraftKings both offer early-only, all-day, and main slates, so we will cover every game on the schedule.

Foltynewicz has one of the coolest last names in all of baseball. If I could change my actual name to anything, I would be Notorious Foltynewicz. Anyway, the real Foltynewicz will be on the mound today against the Pirates. He is a right-handed pitcher that can throw some heat (95+ MPH), but he hasn’t been able to turn that into an elite strikeout rate at the major league level. While his “stuff” gives him upside, he is pitching on the road against a Pirates’ offense that doesn’t strikeout all that often.

Analysis: Deep Tournament Play

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	26	3.76	4.17	18.6%	4.1%	53.6%	27.7%	34.4%

Nova pitched well in the second half of 2016 and benefitted from a trade to the National League. He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but he plays in a pitcher-friendly park and has a very good defense behind him. When Nova is at his best, he is inducing a lot of ground balls and limiting base runners with a low walk rate. There is one pitcher that stands out above the rest in the early-only slate, but Nova is a viable SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. The Braves may not strikeout all that often, but they are a bottom five offense in the National League.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Even though Ivan Nova has an above-average ground ball rate, he doesn’t strike many batters out and he gives up a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters. In 2016, he allowed a .362 wOBA, a 37.5% hard contact rate, and a measly 13.5% strikeout rate against lefties. The Braves don’t have many left-handed batters in their lineup, but Freddie Freeman and his 42.8% hard contact rate against righties stands out as an elite play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.310	0.097	25.7%	8.5%	13.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
2	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.312	0.099	33.3%	8.1%	23.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.411	0.292	42.8%	14.3%	22.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.324	0.215	36.8%	5.4%	24.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.339	0.157	33.1%	11.6%	16.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
6	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.326	0.126	27.7%	3.3%	11.6%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400
7	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.299	0.145	29.5%	3.3%	16.9%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,300
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.298	0.129	31.0%	5.3%	11.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,400
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.138	0.031	22.2%	2.8%	47.2%	P	$6,900	P	$7,600

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

When analyzing each game, we have to look at the slate as a whole. It’s not that the Pirates are in a bad matchup today, but there is a game in Coors Field. For every batter that you like in this game, I can pull the one-up card and show you a better one in Coors. Mike Foltynewicz struggles with left-handed hitters, as he allowed a .329 wOBA and a 33.5% hard contact rate to lefties. Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco are fine plays, but don’t stand out as elite bats in comparison to the other options in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.329	0.126	32.7%	8.5%	16.3%	SS	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,000
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.354	0.153	35.1%	4.3%	17.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.328	0.170	36.1%	9.5%	21.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.330	0.198	36.4%	8.9%	18.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.314	0.123	33.2%	8.1%	28.8%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,000
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.306	0.068	24.2%	14.2%	19.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
7	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.353	0.158	34.3%	13.4%	12.7%	1B	$2,400	OF	$3,100
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.288	0.102	24.9%	7.4%	14.9%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,000
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.120	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	70.8%	P	$6,900	P	$7,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Boston					Detroit
			Steven Wright					Michael Fulmer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET-118					8.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.271	21.5%	8.3%	18.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.276	30.6%	7.7%	17.8%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.303	32.6%	9.0%	20.3%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.295	30.1%	5.2%	23.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Steven Wright
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	24	4.55	3.33	19.4%	8.7%	43.7%	36.9%	27.8%

Wright is a knuckleballer, which means you never quite know what to expect start to start. He can look great at times and he can lose his command and give up a lot of runs rather quickly. He finished the 2016 season with a 3.33 ERA, but we can expect some regression this year. There will be opportunities to target him, but this matchup doesn’t suit him. He has serious reverse-splits las season and and the Tigers have a right-handed heavy lineup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	26	4.03	3.06	20.4%	6.5%	49.1%	31.5%	30.4%

Fulmer had a tremendous rookie season, but tailed off in the last couple of months. He pitched so well that he ended up winning the AL Rookie of the Year. We can expect some regression in terms of his ERA, but he has a league-average strikeout rate and he induces a high ground ball rate (49%). The Red Sox are not the same offense away from Fenway Park, but are still not a team that I like to pick on with pitching. They drive up pitch counts and can score runs in bunches.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are slight underdogs today against Michael Fulmer, whose statistics are not all that exploitable. He limits hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters, he induces a high ground ball rate, and he doesn’t walk many batters. Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all viable tournament plays, but this isn’t a spot to stack the Red Sox.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.356	0.134	33.3%	7.6%	10.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.417	0.262	34.3%	7.6%	15.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
3	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.389	0.207	33.1%	7.1%	11.1%	OF	$4,800	OF	$4,800
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.341	0.182	37.0%	9.5%	19.6%	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,000
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.293	0.182	36.7%	7.3%	23.4%	1B	$2,600	1B	$2,800
6	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.379	0.263	39.5%	10.8%	21.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700
7	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.333	0.198	39.8%	9.5%	22.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700
8	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.112	0.000	33.3%	7.1%	50.0%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,200
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.331	0.142	35.3%	6.3%	26.1%	C	$2,500	C	$2,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

We shouldn’t have a ton of exposure to this game as a whole, but I prefer the Tigers’ offense over the Red Sox offense. They are playing at home and Steven Wright gives up a 32.6% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I don’t rely on BvP often (especially with small samples), but like to look at it when a knuckleballer is involved. Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez all have hits and RBIs against Wright in limited at-bats. Castellanos looks locked in right now and makes an excellent tournament play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.350	0.190	33.8%	6.2%	16.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.378	0.213	35.6%	7.1%	23.7%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.403	0.257	40.8%	9.9%	16.2%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.349	0.195	40.1%	8.0%	14.7%	C	$2,900	1B	$3,500
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.332	0.225	38.3%	7.6%	28.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
6	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.332	0.182	30.0%	8.2%	25.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.226	0.067	27.5%	4.6%	28.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.326	0.154	25.0%	0.0%	7.7%	OF	$2,300	3B/SS	$2,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.273	0.057	13.6%	5.2%	10.7%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,500

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez, Tyler Collins

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Washington					Philadelphia
			Max Scherzer					Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-149					7.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.323	31.0%	9.1%	25.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.333	33.3%	9.3%	26.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.206	29.0%	3.2%	37.8%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.322	31.8%	7.0%	28.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$13,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	34	3.05	2.96	31.5%	6.2%	33.0%	47.9%	30.1%

If you are playing cash games in the early slate, it’s hard to justify a fade of Scherzer. He is clearly the top pitching option in the slate and his price isn’t all that expensive on FanDuel ($10,300). Scherzer is coming off of a Cy Young Award season in 2016 where he posted a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.5% and a walk rate of 6.2%. He also struck out Tim Tebow in a game last month (sorry, Cam). The only knock on Scherzer is that he gives up a lot of home runs, but there are very few baserunners on when he does and single-run shots don’t hurt that bad. He should make quick work of a Phillies’ offense that struggles against right-handed pitching.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	24	3.62	4.12	27.6%	8.2%	34.8%	41.2%	32.6%

Velasquez may not have Scherzer-type of numbers, but he is mighty impressive in his own right. He finished the 2016 season with a 27.6% strikeout rate, which is huge for his fantasy appeal. Strikeouts make up nearly two-thirds of fantasy production for a pitcher over the course of a season. If you want to fade Max Scherzer in tournaments, Velasquez is an excellent leverage play. It’s not likely, but if Max struggles, you will move ahead of all Scherzer owners in tournaments and potentially capitalize on Velasquez at low ownership. You could even consider playing both Scherzer and Velasquez on DraftKings, but doing so would make it hard to afford hitters from Coors.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Vince Velasquez has a high strikeout rate, but he is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. In these situations, the masses tend to fade the offense as a whole, but I like to look for low strikeout hitters that could capitalize on the hard contact allowed. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy both have a strikeout rate under 16% and a hard contact rate over 35% against right-handed pitching. Trea Turner and Adam Eaton are fine plays, but I will be looking elsewhere at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.405	0.254	34.0%	4.5%	18.0%	SS	$3,700	OF/SS	$4,700
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.353	0.169	32.3%	9.0%	16.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.356	0.199	35.3%	18.6%	15.3%	OF	$4,800	OF	$4,800
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.420	0.255	40.5%	6.2%	9.6%	2B	$3,600	2B/3B	$4,400
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.279	0.146	33.5%	5.1%	24.5%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,300
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.337	0.187	36.6%	8.2%	18.9%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,800
7	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.294	0.133	32.1%	11.2%	24.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.321	0.182	32.7%	6.2%	17.5%	C	$2,900	C	$3,100
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.190	0.017	23.9%	2.8%	33.3%	P	$10,300	P	$13,000

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Adam Eaton

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Could Max Scherzer give up a solo home run or two today? Sure, but we shouldn’t be betting against him. Not today and not anytime in the near future. Thanks, but no thanks. (PS – there is a game in Coors Field today).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.333	0.118	27.0%	11.3%	18.2%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,100
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.316	0.136	35.5%	7.8%	16.9%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,100
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.362	0.165	29.9%	9.6%	19.2%	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,600
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.298	0.152	29.6%	6.6%	16.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.335	0.205	38.6%	11.2%	27.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.320	0.230	37.3%	4.8%	23.1%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,400
7	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.300	0.169	33.2%	5.7%	27.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.305	0.182	27.5%	4.8%	23.1%	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,100
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.159	0.000	9.1%	2.9%	34.3%	P	$8,000	P	$8,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at Colorado – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	BB%
LA Dodgers					Colorado
			Hyun-Jin Ryu			Kyle Freeland
			LEFT			LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline			Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-129			11.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.314	50.0%	0.0%	20.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.504	42.9%	10.5%	15.8%	SP vs. Right (2016)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Hyun-Jin Ryu
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	1	4.81	11.57	16.7%	8.3%	41.2%	35.3%	44.4%

This is the first Coors Field slate of the season. If you are new to baseball, you will quickly get familiar with Coors. The altitude makes the ball fly in Colorado (more home runs) and Coors has one of the largest outfields in baseball (more doubles and triples). The altitude also hurts the spin on the ball, which makes it tough for pitchers to throw their breaking stuff. Basically, don’t target pitchers in Coors. There will be a few games a year where we see great pitching performances here, but you shouldn’t try to chase them. It is a losing proposition.

	Stats	SIERA	ERA	BB%	GB%	HC%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:	$5,500	Salary:	$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:	25 of 30	Salary Rank:	30 of 30	Salary Rank:	of 30

I could just copy and past the paragraph from above, but I wanted to talk about Freeland for a minute. He is one of the Rockies’ top prospects. He was the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft. He has a good fastball and a nice slider. He looked good this spring and has been rocketed up draft boards in season long leagues. I won’t be targeting him in his major league debut, but I will be paying close attention.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Stacking hitters in Coors Field is something that you need to get accustomed to. The run total for this game is set at 11.5, which is a full two runs higher than any other game in the slate. I’ve already outlined why hitters have so much success here. The Dodgers square off against Kyle Freeland, who is a rookie left-handed pitcher that is making his first major league start. All of the right-handed hitters are in play here, as are the left-handed batters with low strikeout rates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.344	0.188	39.6%	7.0%	21.1%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,900
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.306	0.160	40.1%	6.9%	24.8%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,500
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.288	0.131	37.5%	11.4%	16.8%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,900
4	Franklin Gutierrez	RIGHT	0.375	0.226	52.3%	12.2%	28.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,600
5	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.323	0.203	28.9%	5.9%	20.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,100
6	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.267	0.064	23.8%	4.9%	16.2%	1B	$3,500	1B	$5,200
7	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.351	0.198	35.0%	18.8%	20.8%	C	$3,400	C	$4,600
8	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.293	0.169	31.5%	15.1%	24.0%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,700
9	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$6,200	P	$5,700

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Franklin Gutierrez, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Hyun-Jin Ryu has only made one start in the last two seasons. He showed a lot of promise, but can’t seem to stay healthy. This probably wouldn’t be his ideal spot to make his second start in three years, but he didn’t have a choice in the matters. Rockies’ hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, even the lefties. In his career, Ryu has actually given up a higher wOBA to lefties than he has to righties. And again, this is the first slate with Coors Field. You don’t want to start off on the wrong foot with Coors. It can be a wily temptress when you fade it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.364	0.119	24.7%	5.6%	14.7%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,300
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.392	0.183	36.1%	12.7%	13.8%	2B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,500
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.327	0.219	40.0%	2.2%	26.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.363	0.235	38.0%	14.3%	17.5%	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,400
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.416	0.317	59.7%	12.6%	33.6%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,000
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.285	0.101	23.5%	2.0%	18.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.293	0.090	29.6%	10.9%	25.4%	1B	$3,700	1B/3B	$4,200
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.247	0.071	12.5%	6.7%	22.2%	C	$3,100	C	$3,400
9	Kyle Freeland	LEFT						P	$5,500	P	$4,000

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – GREEN

San Francisco at San Diego – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
San Francisco					San Diego
			Matt Cain					Luis Perdomo
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -112					8.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.386	27.1%	7.1%	18.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.366	40.3%	6.2%	14.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.353	34.6%	8.8%	17.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.355	28.2%	7.6%	17.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Matt Cain
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	17	4.67	5.64	18.1%	8.1%	37.3%	38.8%	31.4%

Cain used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that seems like light years ago. Light years means a long time right? I need to brush up on my space lingo. Even though we love targeting pitchers in Petco Park and even though we love targeting pitchers against the Padres, Cain isn’t at the top of my list of pitching targets in this slate. He has a below-average strikeout rate and the Padres actually have some young talent in their lineup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Luis Perdomo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	20	4.04	5.71	15.9%	7.0%	59.0%	21.3%	34.0%

Perdomo’s peripherals looked a lot better than his ERA did last season, but unless he can improve on his 15.9% strikeout rate, he’s not going to be on our radar anytime soon. He does induce a high ground ball rate, but we like to see that accompanied by a high strikeout rate. I will be taking a wait and see approach on Perdomo. If he shows strikeout potential, he could be viable in DFS moving forward.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants go from one of the best hitter’s parks in the National League (Chase Field) to one of the worst (Petco Park). In addition to the ballpark, they are facing a pitcher with an elite ground ball rate. They are also competing against hitters from Coors Field. Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence are still cheap on FanDuel if you need to save cap space at their respective positions, but I won’t be going overboard on the Giants’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.337	0.138	26.5%	8.5%	11.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
2	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.376	0.205	38.8%	16.8%	22.5%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.350	0.131	28.4%	9.8%	21.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.324	0.131	35.7%	9.1%	11.6%	C	$3,800	1B/C	$3,900
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.337	0.185	34.7%	9.8%	17.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.330	0.129	27.2%	4.8%	15.7%	3B	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,800
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.368	0.165	38.1%	14.3%	28.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200
8	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.320	0.171	27.1%	10.1%	6.7%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,600
9	Matt Cain	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	61.5%	P	$5,200	P	$5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

Even though the Padres are underdogs, I actually like their offense more than the Giants. Matt Cain is a below-average pitcher at this stage in his career and he gave up a .353+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters last season. He also gave up a 34.6% hard contact rate to righties. Wil Myers, Ryan Schimpf, and Hunter Renfroe are all on my radar in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.326	0.082	27.2%	12.2%	25.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
2	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.295	0.167	26.9%	0.0%	13.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.341	0.201	32.2%	9.6%	23.5%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,600
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.354	0.188	33.3%	6.4%	13.4%	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,500
5	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.378	0.320	38.0%	13.5%	29.6%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,600
6	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.445	0.355	26.9%	0.0%	16.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300
7	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.067	0.000	13.3%	0.0%	33.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.294	0.092	21.5%	8.9%	13.3%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,000
9	Luis Perdomo	RIGHT	0.152	0.037	5.9%	3.2%	38.7%	P	$6,400	P	$5,100

MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 7th

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Stackability Rating System:

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez, Tyler Collins

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Adam Eaton

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at Colorado – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Franklin Gutierrez, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – GREEN

San Francisco at San Diego – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers, Ryan Schimpf, Hunter Renfroe

Stackability – ORANGE

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