MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-13 01:59:44

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
St. Louis					Chicago Cubs
			Adam Wainwright					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -200					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.331	3	30.6%	18.1%	SP vs. Left	0.225	6	26.8%	28.2%
SP vs. Right	0.288	7	28.7%	19.1%	SP vs. Right	0.240	12	20.8%	24.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Wainwright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:
					FPPG:		27.8	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		52.1	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	108.4	4.03	3.86	19.4%	6.0%	7.6%	49.0%	30.6%	32.0%
2016	23	97.8	4.19	4.34	18.7%	6.2%	8.1%	44.8%	30.1%	31.0%
2015	4	95.8	3.45	1.61	18.0%	3.6%	7.8%	51.2%	22.6%	21.8%

Wainwright has bounced back nicely this season, but a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.7% doesn’t exactly leap off the page at us. It’s a bit surprising to see how bad he has struggled on the road this year, as he is a veteran pitcher that should feel comfortable regardless of his surroundings. However, he currently has a 5.94 ERA with a .363 wOBA allowed in his 11 road starts. That’s a big red flag for me and a matchup against the Cubs is final nail in the coffin. There will be times to target Wainwright moving forward, but this isn’t one of them.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:
					FPPG:		40.4	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		86.9	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	4	98.5	3.95	2.25	20.8%	6.6%	8.4%	51.3%	32.9%	29.0%
2016	22	101.4	3.67	2.59	25.1%	8.8%	10.4%	53.2%	27.8%	25.7%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Arrieta hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was last season, but he still owns a 2.59 ERA with a strikeout rate of 25.1%. He induces an elite ground ball rate and he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (25.7%). The main issue with Arrieta today is his matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked third in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Arrieta isn’t a bad play by any means, but I prefer Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but they draw one of the most difficult matchups in all of fantasy baseball. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .240 wOBA. I’m not going to roster Arrieta in this matchup, but I won’t be targeting any Cardinals’ hitters either.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.197 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.96 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.17 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.406	0.265	0.413	2B	$3,400
2	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.329	0.160	0.224	OF	$2,900
3	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.348	0.263	0.346	1B	$2,900
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.340	0.166	0.365	OF	$2,900
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.308	0.100	0.454	C	$2,400
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.324	0.128	0.390	SS	$2,800
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.308	0.198	0.229	3B	$2,400
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.354	0.262	0.098	OF	$2,500
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.206	0.235	0.506	P	$8,000
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.197	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw an intriguing matchup against Adam Wainwright. As I mentioned above, he has really struggled away from Busch Stadium this season. He has also had problems with left-handed hitters, allowing a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters. People may be scared off of this game due to the name value of Carpenter, but the Cubs actually have an above-average team total of 5.05 runs.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.00 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.05 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.33 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.336	0.173	0.383	OF	$3,700
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.375	0.220	0.414	3B	$3,900
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.397	0.271	0.383	1B	$4,000
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.343	0.171	0.406	2B	$3,000
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.341	0.167	0.265	C	$2,700
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.328	0.137	0.246	OF	$2,400
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.316	0.152	0.149	C	$2,200
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.324	0.151	0.246	SS	$2,500
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.229	0.153	0.000	P	$10,900
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.177	0.277	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Atlanta					Washington
			Mike Foltynewicz					Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -260					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.386	16	31.3%	18.4%	SP vs. Left	0.249	12	26.9%	31.3%
SP vs. Right	0.337	14	29.9%	20.5%	SP vs. Right	0.292	15	28.1%	29.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Foltynewicz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		27.3	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		41.3	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	6	105.5	4.30	4.46	20.3%	7.8%	10.9%	43.5%	36.1%	25.9%
2016	14	96.7	4.27	4.37	19.9%	6.9%	10.0%	41.1%	37.7%	28.2%
2015	15	98.7	4.30	5.71	19.3%	7.3%	8.9%	33.3%	43.5%	32.5%

Foltynewicz isn’t have a bad season by any means, but he doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for from a pitcher. In 14 starts this season, he has a 4.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.9%. He also has one of the worst offenses in baseball behind him, which routinely hurts his chances to pick up wins. He is the largest underdog on the schedule tonight, as he square off against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals. Foltynewicz is an easy fade in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Stephen Strasburg
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$12,400
					FPPG:		46.3	FPPG:		24.5
					Pitcher Rating:		98.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	101.0	3.36	3.41	29.1%	6.3%	10.9%	28.8%	51.3%	29.3%
2016	21	103.3	3.09	2.80	30.9%	7.1%	11.2%	40.6%	39.4%	26.1%
2015	23	88.8	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

Strasburg is looking to bounce back after a rough outing against the Giants. We can’t put too much stock into that one outing, as the Giants are a tough offense and Strasburg has been in tremendous form all season. He currently owns a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.9%. While the Braves have a low strikeout rate, they are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. Strasburg is the premier pitching option tonight and he will end up being the chalk in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves come into tonight’s game with the lowest implied team total on the board. In addition to being the worst offense in baseball, they draw one of the worst possible matchups. The Braves’ offense showed some life against the Brewers, but this should be a completely different series. In the last two seasons, Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.293 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.123 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.70 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.55 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.83 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.335	0.113	0.381	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500
2	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.282	0.074	0.344	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.373	0.234	0.403	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.308	0.180	0.299	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.344	0.111	0.434	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700
6	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.305	0.165	0.337	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,300
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.314	0.109	0.264	2B	$2,400	2B/OF	$2,800
8	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.309	0.130	0.265	C	$2,100	C	$2,100
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.104	0.024	0.176	P	$6,700	P	$6,100
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.127	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

We go from a team with the lowest run projection to one with the third highest run projection. The Nationals’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently and they draw an exploitable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has allowed a .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.67 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.345	0.209	0.312	SS	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,900
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.293	0.134	0.422	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.429	0.294	0.284	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.379	0.226	0.309	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,200
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.321	0.155	0.399	C	$3,400	C	$4,700
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.323	0.145	0.433	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100
7	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.307	0.167	0.264	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,000
8	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.293	0.077	0.244	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.170	0.015	0.646	P	$11,600	P	$12,400
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.158	0.368	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Colorado					Philadelphia
			Jon Gray					Jake Thompson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -135					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.302	7	36.0%	25.2%	SP vs. Left	0.481	0	66.7%	0.0%
SP vs. Right	0.336	11	28.6%	23.2%	SP vs. Right	0.402	0	33.3%	9.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		32.5	FPPG:		17.1
					Pitcher Rating:		74.9	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	96.8	4.04	3.03	22.8%	7.3%	10.5%	33.8%	40.0%	27.4%
2016	20	94.4	3.70	4.26	25.1%	7.8%	11.6%	44.7%	32.5%	30.3%
2015	9	75.8	3.89	5.53	21.6%	7.6%	10.1%	42.4%	32.8%	36.4%

Gray may end up being my favorite GPP play in this Friday night slate. Stephen Strasburg is a no-brainer for cash games, but there are a number of ways you can go in tournaments. Gray has been solid this season, posting a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.1%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies and he doesn’t have to pitch in Coors Field. The Phillies haven’t been as bad offensively as they were early on, but they are still ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. The strikeout upside is there for Gray and his price is very reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Thompson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		-2.0	FPPG:		-6.3
					Pitcher Rating:		16.9	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	1	83.0	6.33	12.46	4.6%	9.1%	8.4%	41.2%	23.5%	50.0%
2016	1	83.0	6.32	12.46	4.6%	9.1%	8.4%	41.2%	23.5%	50.0%

Thompson made his first career start last week, allowing six runs in only four innings of work against the Padres. While he managed to keep his ERA down in the minors, he didn’t strike many batters out in the process. In 21 Triple-A starts this season, he had a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. He comes into tonight’s game as an underdog at home. While the Rockies have struggled on the road this season, there is more risk than potential reward with Thompson.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but a lot of that production was accumulated in Coors Field. While they aren’t playing at home tonight, they do draw a favorable matchup against rookie Jake Thompson, who was not sharp in his major league debut against the Padres. Give a slight edge to the left-handed hitters in the Rockies’ lineup.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.19 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.360	0.182	0.459	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.340	0.111	0.374	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.411	0.288	0.474	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,400
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.382	0.303	0.392	3B	$3,900	3B	$5,200
5	David Dahl	LEFT	0.423	0.279	0.451	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.335	0.175	0.366	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.311	0.120	0.338	SS	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,100
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.337	0.171	0.149	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.153	0.000	0.000	P	$8,300	P	$8,900
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.181	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies have slowly improved offensively, but I prefer to target their hitters against left-handed pitchers. They don’t have any left-handed power hitters that really scare any right-handed pitchers. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Jon Gray, who boasts an elite strikeout rate and a respectable hard hit contact rate of 30.3%.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.75 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.70 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.300	0.088	0.330	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.351	0.150	0.289	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.328	0.196	0.228	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.331	0.257	0.342	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,300
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.295	0.150	0.399	C	$2,800	C	$3,700
6	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.365	0.246	0.341	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.286	0.123	0.266	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,800
8	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.296	0.163	0.233	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,600
9	Jake Thompson	RIGHT	0.439	0.000	0.439	P	$5,900	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.153	0.319	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
			Chris Archer					CC Sabathia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -120					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.285	19	31.9%	28.4%	SP vs. Left	0.269	5	20.7%	25.2%
SP vs. Right	0.295	22	33.1%	28.2%	SP vs. Right	0.347	36	28.6%	16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Archer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		33.5	FPPG:		18.1
					Pitcher Rating:		76.7	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	99.0	3.07	2.94	28.8%	5.3%	13.7%	46.9%	37.0%	27.6%
2016	24	102.3	3.62	4.26	27.3%	8.9%	11.9%	46.1%	33.8%	33.0%
2015	34	101.4	3.08	3.23	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%

Archer is coming off of his best five-game stretch of the season, where he posted a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.8%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Yankees, although he would be a much better play if the game was being played in Tampa. While I don’t love targeting pitchers in Yankee Stadium, the potential upside makes Archer a strong GPP play and a decent SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. I expect the run support to be there with CC Sabathia pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		26.8	FPPG:		12.9
					Pitcher Rating:		45.9	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	99.4	5.21	5.40	14.1%	9.6%	6.2%	48.0%	35.3%	25.5%
2016	20	96.2	4.72	4.18	17.5%	9.1%	9.3%	47.8%	35.2%	24.7%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia has really limited the hard contact against him this season, but unfortunately that hasn’t led to much of anything. In 20 starts, he has a 4.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.5% and a walk rate of 9.1%. The Rays may strikeout rate a high rate, but they are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching. The Rays have a few too many right-handed hitters in their lineup for Sabthia to warrant consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays were a top five offense against left-handed pitching earlier in the season, but the loss of Brandon Guyer and Steve Pearce have taken its toll. They are still a good offensive ball club against southpaws though, and they draw a favorable matchup against CC Sabathia. In the last two seasons combined, Sabathia has allowed a .347 wOBA and 36 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.326 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.1% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.76 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.05 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.398	0.282	0.419	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,300
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.284	0.116	0.319	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.381	0.223	0.281	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,500
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.250	0.065	0.482	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,800
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.407	0.300	0.352	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,500
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.302	0.168	0.340	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.302	0.211	0.240	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,400
8	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.253	0.102	0.268	2B	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,500
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.201	0.067	0.181	C	$2,100	C	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.170	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Steven Souza

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Will Alex Rodriguez ride off into the sunset like Derek Jeter, or will he go 0-for-4 with three strikeouts? The way he has played this season, the most likely scenario is the latter, but I’m a sucker for a good narrative. He is close to minimum salary across the industry and is actually well below the min-salary on FanDuel. He is listed at $696, which basically makes him a no-brainer in cash games. Even though Chris Archer is tough on right-handed hitters, Rodriguez wants to go out on a high note. He is the only Yankees’ hitter that I will be targeting tonight.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.325	0.139	0.424	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.310	0.101	0.330	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
3	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.349	0.268	0.364	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.322	0.198	0.110	3B	$696	1B/3B	$2,600
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.327	0.200	0.232	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.291	0.128	0.300	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,100
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.312	0.144	0.268	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.304	0.121	0.361	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,300
9	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.422	0.231	0.433	C	$2,700	C	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.329	0.170	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Alex Rodriguez (FD)

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez (DK)

Stackability – RED

Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Houston					Toronto
			Joe Musgrove					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -125					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.175	0	7.7%	26.3%	SP vs. Left	0.297	7	22.9%	24.6%
SP vs. Right	0.136	0	46.2%	40.9%	SP vs. Right	0.316	28	30.5%	24.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Joe Musgrove
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		36.5	FPPG:		23.7
					Pitcher Rating:		58.7	Pitcher Rank:
L30 Days	1	99.0	2.24	0.79	34.2%	2.4%	11.5%	30.8%	42.3%	26.9%
2016	1	9.0	2.24	0.79	34.2%	2.4%	11.5%	30.8%	42.3%	26.9%

Musgrove will be making his second career major league start tonight. He pitched well against the Rangers on Sunday, allowing a single run in seven innings of work. He faced this same Blue Jays team in his first major league appearance, striking out eight batters in four innings of relief work. His two main pitches are the fastball and the slider, but he’ll throw a curveball or changeup into the mix every once in a while. He has a lot of upside moving forward, but this will be his first outing on the road. I would have taken a shot on him at $4,000, but he is priced up enough that I would rather take a wait and see approach.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		24.2	FPPG:		11.4
					Pitcher Rating:		73.3	Pitcher Rank:
L30 Days	5	91.4	3.64	6.00	27.3%	10.7%	13.1%	60.0%	25.7%	39.2%
2016	22	95.1	4.65	5.34	22.0%	12.9%	10.9%	51.8%	30.5%	35.0%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

After the first half of the season, Liriano had to be thinking to himself that it couldn’t get any worse. Then he was traded to the American League East. Not only does he lose the privilege of facing the opposing pitcher in the lineup, but now half of his starts come in the Rogers Centre. While his ERA has yet to come down, his ERA estimators have looked better in his last five starts. He has the tools to succeed in Toronto (a high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate), but he is too much of a wildcard at this point of the season.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

I don’t like to use this term often, but the Astros went HAM on the Twins yesterday in their double-header. They scored 25 runs combined in the two games, which single-handedly improved their ranking in runs per game from 20th to 15th on the season. They will try to stay hot tonight, as they take on the struggling Francisco Liriano in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. You can look at this matchup in two ways – this is either a good spot for Liriano to bounce back, or this is a good spot to target hitters against him. I’m leaning toward the latter, as Liriano just doesn’t seem like himself this season.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.399	0.252	0.262	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.121	0.000	0.204	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.427	0.201	0.464	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,100
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.335	0.185	0.329	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,900
5	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.341	0.199	0.178	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,800
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.314	0.221	0.271	C	$3,000	C	$4,100
7	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.285	0.210	0.195	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,900
8	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.284	0.191	0.317	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700
9	Tony Kemp	LEFT	0.197	0.000	0.382	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.162	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays currently sit atop the American League East and find themselves only 2.5 games behind the Rangers for the best record in the AL. While Joe Musgrove has been sharp in his first two appearances at the major league level, this will be his first action on the road in a hostile environment. The Blue Jays also know what to expect, as they have already squared off against him this season. I may limit my exposure to the Blue Jays in cash games, but they are a great stack and a great source of one-offs in tournaments.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.77 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.379	0.202	0.441	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.396	0.267	0.324	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,600
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.389	0.284	0.386	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,100
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.341	0.189	0.231	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.322	0.177	0.416	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,400
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.313	0.173	0.364	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.326	0.224	0.152	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,600
8	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.291	0.144	0.148	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.288	0.116	0.109	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.197	0.286	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 12th

Stackability Rating System:

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Steven Souza

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Alex Rodriguez (FD)

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez (DK)

Stackability – RED

Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW

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