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MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-24 20:06:32

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Baltimore
nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia baltimoremlb Alex Cobb
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.280 17.9% 1.17 24.5% 53.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.331 32.3% 1.02 17.6% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.311 30.8% 1.21 19.5% 43.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.356 0.355 33.0% 1.59 12.6% 54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $18,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1% 90.9 8.9%
2018 22 4.30 3.32 20.5% 7.9% 45.0% 28.8% 25.5% 90.4 10.5%
L14 1 2.74 0.00 30.4% 13.0% 92.3% 15.4% 15.4% 90.3 9.3%

Happy Friday, everyone! We kick off tonight’s 14-game slate with the Yankees and Orioles, two teams heading in very different directions. Sabathia has put together another impressive season for New York, posting a 3.32 ERA (4.30 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 21% and a soft contact rate of 26%. He draws an elite matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .250 with a strikeout rate of 30% against left-handed pitching. We have a surprising lack of options at pitcher tonight, which makes Sabathia one of the top targets on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is an elite play in all formats.

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,500
Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 25 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 4.48 3.66 17.3% 5.9% 47.8% 36.9% 14.9% 91.7 6.7%
2018 23 4.53 5.09 15.2% 5.9% 50.3% 32.7% 21.2% 91.9 7.6%
L14 2 4.01 1.69 17.0% 5.1% 53.3% 37.0% 19.6% 92.1 8.7%

Cobb has been a hittable pitcher this season. In 23 starts, he owns a 4.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He struggles against both left and right-handed hitters and has to face the Yankees in a home run-friendly ballpark. There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have a lower implied run total than I was expecting. I know that they are playing on the road without one of their best hitters, but this is still a hitter-friendly ballpark and they draw one of the best matchups on the board. Alex Cobb does have an above-average ground ball rate, but has allowed a .331 xwOBA to lefties and a .355 xwOBA to righties this season. If Neil Walker is batting fifth, he’ll be one of the top value plays of the slate. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres all own a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.296 0.135 25.7% 11.8% 15.0% 50.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.330 0.224 37.4% 7.9% 31.3% 48.8% OF $5,200 OF $5,200 RF $9,800
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.374 0.185 37.9% 16.0% 19.5% 43.9% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 CF $8,900
4 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.356 0.223 37.6% 3.9% 16.6% 47.1% 3B $4,400 3B $4,800 3B $8,800
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.364 0.126 40.0% 10.9% 21.4% 36.8% 2B $2,800 1B/2B $3,600 2B $7,200
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.354 0.216 36.2% 7.3% 25.2% 32.7% SS $3,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.315 0.193 39.9% 9.2% 26.1% 33.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.326 0.177 38.2% 7.0% 22.2% 47.2% C $2,600 C $3,800 C $7,300
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.325 0.094 22.5% 1.9% 7.4% 42.9% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,900
Team Averages 0.338 0.175 35.0% 8.4% 20.5% 42.6%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles may have the least talented offense in baseball. They’ve been an easy fade since they traded away Manny Machado and I will continue that tradition tonight against CC Sabathia, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. With so much interest in Sabathia, the Orioles are an easy offense to avoid in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.166 0.000 0.0% 8.3% 33.3% 20.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.338 0.236 46.0% 5.2% 28.6% 54.0% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,400
3 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.290 0.098 24.2% 7.5% 23.3% 67.7% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.321 0.106 30.0% 2.9% 9.5% 39.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
5 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.296 0.147 34.0% 11.7% 27.3% 43.5% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,700
6 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.277 0.068 31.6% 6.4% 20.5% 45.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 LF $5,600
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.282 0.073 24.1% 8.5% 27.7% 24.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
8 John Andreoli RIGHT 0.002 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,900 RF $7,300
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.274 0.068 17.9% 5.1% 21.5% 39.3% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.250 0.088 23.1% 6.2% 29.6% 37.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Philadelphia Toronto
philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta torontomlb Ryan Borucki
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-122 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.341 27.6% 0.94 17.5% 50.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.308 29.8% 0.66 14.0% 63.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.292 26.7% 0.67 18.0% 54.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.350 33.1% 0.23 14.0% 42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,300
Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0% 92.1 8.7%
2018 24 4.31 3.25 17.8% 7.4% 52.9% 27.1% 19.4% 93.0 7.1%
L14 2 3.69 4.91 21.3% 4.3% 52.9% 17.7% 26.5% 93.6 6.8%

Arrieta isn’t a pitcher that I target often in DFS. While his skill set translates nicely in actual baseball, it doesn’t lead to a big ceiling in DFS. His ground ball and hard contact rates are appealing, but a strikeout rate of only 18% limits his upside. He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite, but the total is set at 9.0 runs. The Blue Jays fare well at home and their projected lineup for tonight’s game boasts a .353 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Arrieta in all formats.

Ryan Borucki
ryan-borucki-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 10 5.07 4.27 14.0% 8.5% 48.1% 32.2% 14.8% 91.8 6.7%
L14 2 8.03 19.29 3.5% 20.7% 59.1% 59.1% 13.6% 92.1 6.4%

Borucki has not pitched well in his ten starts this season, posting a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He has a high ground ball rate, but he still gives up a lot of medium and hard contact. With a high ground ball rate and a low k-rate, it leads to a lot of hits. He draws a difficult matchup against the Phillies and he has to face them at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Philadelphia’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .339 with a strikeout rate of only 20% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Borucki in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have a lot going for them tonight. They are playing on the road (guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats), they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they get to use the DH in this series, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki. On the season, Borucki has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I always love targeting Rhys Hoskins against ground ball pitchers, as he owns one of the highest fly-ball rates of any hitter in baseball when facing a lefty. Carlos Santana, Wilson Ramos, and Maikel Franco all mash southpaws and are viable tonight against Borucki.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.340 0.065 29.6% 14.5% 17.9% 54.8% 2B $2,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.365 0.154 27.8% 21.3% 17.2% 29.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 IF/OF $8,600
3 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.365 0.208 36.4% 11.3% 10.6% 46.4% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,500
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.420 0.272 41.9% 4.2% 18.8% 47.3% C $2,800 C $4,800 C $8,800
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.321 0.114 35.9% 5.3% 16.7% 48.2% SS $2,900 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,500
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.356 0.160 32.5% 9.4% 12.3% 41.0% 3B $3,000 3B $4,100 3B $8,500
7 Nick Williams LEFT 0.325 0.092 22.5% 5.9% 31.8% 47.9% OF $2,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,300
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.343 0.145 39.6% 7.2% 33.7% 41.7% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,400
9 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.215 0.357 18.2% 0.0% 21.4% 45.5% OF $2,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
Team Averages 0.339 0.174 31.6% 8.8% 20.0% 44.7%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Maikel Franco, Jorge Alfaro

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays are in a tough spot tonight. While they are playing at home in a good ballpark and while they have a talented offense, they are facing a ground ball pitcher that has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 28% hard contact rate this season. In order for hitters to warrant consideration against Jake Arrieta, they have to bat from the left side and have a high fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching. The only two that qualify from Toronto are Curtis Granderson (.352 xwOBA against righties) and Justin Smoak (.406 xwOBA against righties).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.352 0.196 38.1% 12.3% 26.1% 31.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.319 0.122 30.8% 5.4% 20.7% 54.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,300 2B $6,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.406 0.250 38.5% 16.3% 25.7% 31.3% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.438 0.231 46.0% 12.4% 19.4% 43.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,500 1B $9,100
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.338 0.250 33.7% 5.5% 23.0% 37.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.329 0.149 31.0% 15.9% 24.0% 49.3% 3B $2,600 C $3,100 C $5,900
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.341 0.175 34.5% 3.9% 20.1% 35.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.349 0.190 34.0% 3.2% 12.0% 42.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.301 0.079 55.6% 9.3% 27.9% 30.8% SS $2,300 2B/SS $3,100 SS $6,000
Team Averages 0.353 0.182 38.0% 9.4% 22.1% 39.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-175 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.306 33.9% 1.14 27.9% 41.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.370 44.7% 1.51 19.8% 33.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.287 35.2% 0.66 28.4% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.373 44.9% 1.80 18.7% 34.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8% 95.3 9.4%
2018 24 3.68 2.72 28.2% 9.4% 42.6% 34.6% 19.6% 96.5 10.3%
L14 2 3.15 0.60 29.6% 5.6% 32.4% 37.1% 31.4% 96.1 9.7%

Foltynewicz arguably has the highest raw projection of any pitcher in tonight’s slate. While I don’t see him as a core target (I prefer Rich Hill at a cheaper price point), he should certainly be on your radar if you are building multiple tournament lineups. He’s had a nice season overall, posting a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. The Marlins have little firepower to speak of and he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .317 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is an elite play in this slate, but I do prefer Hill when you factor in salaries.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.43 4.26 22.1% 7.8% 34.2% 32.6% 19.1% 90.3 12.2%
2018 20 4.98 4.60 19.3% 11.1% 33.7% 44.8% 14.4% 90.4 9.9%
L14 2 5.43 6.75 14.3% 8.2% 32.4% 47.2% 16.7% 90.8 7.1%

Straily isn’t completely off my radar tonight, which says more about the state of pitching than it does about Straily. He’s a lot like James Shields in that his numbers look bad on paper, but he pitches deep enough into games that he can rack up fantasy production. I can’t think of a better ballpark for Straily, as Marlins Park suppresses home run production. This is a big boost for a pitcher that has a high fly-ball rate and a 45% hard contact rate. I certainly don’t feel great about using Straily against the Braves, but he’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Given the lack of pitching options, Straily is worth a look in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Even though I have a little interest in Dan Straily, that doesn’t mean that I don’t like the Braves’ offense. The range of outcomes in this matchup is quite wide. This is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so I could easily see Straily having a good game. On the other hand, Straily gives up a lot of extra-base hits, so I could easily see the Braves’ offense having a big night. On the season, he has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 44%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.409 0.290 49.3% 7.4% 27.3% 40.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,500 LF $10,300
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.296 0.125 29.7% 6.9% 12.8% 44.3% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.418 0.181 44.0% 12.9% 16.5% 35.0% 1B $4,300 1B $5,200 1B $9,600
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.387 0.168 40.9% 10.0% 9.5% 40.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.314 0.146 36.3% 11.7% 20.1% 49.5% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $4,000 3B $7,500
6 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.301 0.191 35.0% 4.7% 18.1% 37.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,400 2B $8,000
7 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.333 0.154 37.6% 5.0% 8.8% 33.5% C $2,300 C $3,800 C $7,700
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.281 0.156 34.2% 6.5% 23.5% 43.2% SS $2,600 SS $4,100 SS $8,300
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.064 0.027 14.3% 0.0% 64.1% 60.0% P $10,500 P $11,100 P $21,100
Team Averages 0.311 0.160 35.7% 7.2% 22.3% 42.7%

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna (GPP), Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna (Cash), Freddie Freeman (Cash), Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins have one of the least talented offenses in baseball and they draw one of the worst matchups to boot. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, which only complicates the matter. They are a complete fade against Mike Foltynewicz, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.338 0.024 34.2% 10.6% 8.5% 51.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 LF $7,600
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.368 0.211 39.3% 6.4% 17.7% 42.7% C $3,200 C $4,700 C $9,300
3 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.342 0.109 38.1% 6.9% 17.6% 54.2% 3B $2,800 3B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.325 0.121 37.1% 6.7% 18.6% 49.7% 2B $2,800 2B $4,100 2B $8,300
5 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.325 0.158 36.8% 6.1% 23.8% 40.7% OF $2,700 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
6 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.483 0.333 50.0% 5.3% 10.5% 43.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,500
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.313 0.174 34.3% 5.8% 20.9% 47.8% SS $2,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,300
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.163 0.016 20.0% 0.0% 24.2% 57.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.195 0.053 42.9% 17.4% 52.2% 50.0% P $6,100 P $6,800 P $14,000
Team Averages 0.317 0.133 37.0% 7.2% 21.6% 48.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
bostonmlb Hector Velazquez tampabaymlb Diego Castillo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-127 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.385 26.6% 1.88 13.5% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.366 54.3% 1.26 25.4% 51.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.310 30.7% 0.00 13.6% 59.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.245 0.290 36.8% 0.41 25.0% 45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Velazquez
hector-velazquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 3 4.32 2.92 19.8% 7.3% 42.9% 30.0% 11.4% 89.6 7.9%
2018 5 4.59 2.74 13.5% 7.1% 50.2% 28.9% 17.4% 90.8 7.7%
L14 2 6.09 3.52 6.1% 12.1% 64.0% 28.0% 20.0% 90.9 5.8%

Velazquez threw a season-high 73 pitches his last time out. While that’s still well below what we expect from most starters, he’s getting close to being able to throw a full complement of pitches. The problem is that he doesn’t have enough talent to overcome the low pitch count. On the season, he owns a 4.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. The matchup and ballpark are both appealing, but I will continue to take a wait and see approach with Velazquez.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Velazquez in both cash games and tournaments.

Diego Castillo
diego-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 1 3.75 3.47 25.2% 10.9% 47.8% 43.5% 16.3% 96.7 13.2%
L14 1 5.18 0.00 12.5% 12.5% 58.8% 41.2% 17.7% 97.3 10.4%

Castillo will technically draw the start, but he’s not the pitcher that is going to eat up the bulk of the innings. That honor belongs to Jalen Beeks, who actually pitched well against the Red Sox in his last appearance (four shutout innings with three strikeouts). I like targeting these long relievers when the Rays are favored and when they have favorable matchups. Beeks doesn’t have either in his corner tonight against the Red Sox.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Castillo and Beeks tonight against Boston.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox will start the game against Diego Castillo (mediocre righty) and will then face Jalen Beeks (talented, but inconsistent lefty). With this game being played in Tampa Bay, this isn’t exactly an ideal spot for a full stack. You can certainly make a case for Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, as they all bat from the right side. They all hit both left and right-handed pitching well, which is key tonight since they’ll be facing pitchers of both handedness.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.445 0.269 44.3% 10.7% 14.4% 33.6% OF $4,900 OF $5,700 RF $10,200
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.405 0.200 30.0% 13.0% 13.7% 37.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 LF $8,700
3 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.454 0.259 43.9% 11.6% 16.8% 40.9% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,500
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.463 0.356 46.4% 11.1% 22.1% 44.5% OF $4,800 OF $5,700 RF $10,100
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.384 0.271 38.1% 7.1% 16.4% 47.8% SS $4,000 SS $5,100 SS $9,900
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.337 0.190 32.7% 8.7% 10.6% 37.9% 2B $2,500 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.339 0.111 29.5% 9.0% 14.3% 50.8% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,500
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.262 0.126 26.8% 3.4% 25.8% 42.4% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,600
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.379 0.195 41.6% 9.6% 22.5% 40.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
Team Averages 0.385 0.220 37.0% 9.4% 17.4% 41.8%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash), Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw a decent matchup against Hector Velazquez, who is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .385 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. With so many lackluster pitching options on the mound tonight, there are a bunch of teams with high run totals. In other words, we shouldn’t have a ton of interest in the Rays’ offense. With that said, Mallex Smith has played well in the leadoff spot and Jake Bauers has shown some upside against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.304 0.135 29.4% 9.1% 17.6% 46.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 CF $8,100
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.314 0.079 28.5% 6.3% 15.7% 53.0% 3B $2,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
3 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.327 0.134 36.0% 5.8% 19.0% 47.0% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.347 0.161 47.9% 9.8% 25.8% 51.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
5 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.353 0.207 42.7% 14.8% 25.2% 44.7% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,500
6 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.384 0.230 47.1% 10.6% 27.4% 43.5% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
7 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.268 0.099 33.1% 7.0% 23.6% 51.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
8 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.300 0.163 29.9% 8.7% 26.2% 44.8% SS $3,100 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,400
9 Michael Perez LEFT 0.301 0.100 39.0% 3.8% 18.9% 36.6% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $6,000
Team Averages 0.322 0.145 37.1% 8.4% 22.2% 46.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Jake Bauers

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.362 34.9% 1.35 15.7% 32.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.346 37.0% 1.48 18.8% 42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.353 0.381 34.3% 1.55 17.6% 35.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.335 41.1% 0.71 20.9% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9% 94.5 9.0%
2018 25 5.26 4.72 16.6% 9.8% 33.7% 34.6% 20.3% 95.5 8.9%
L14 2 4.28 12.86 19.4% 5.6% 30.8% 50.0% 11.5% 96.5 10.7%

Lopez was a regression candidate earlier in the year. He had an unsustainably low ERA and to no one’s surprise, he has given up runs in bunches over the last couple of months. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. It doesn’t really matter what his matchup looks like, he’s going to be an auto-fade for DFS purposes.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in all formats.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1% 95.8 9.4%
2018 19 4.38 4.50 19.8% 8.1% 45.6% 38.8% 14.9% 95.8 10.5%

Fulmer is making his first start in over a month, as he was sidelined with an oblique injury. The Tigers were nice enough to announce that he will be limited to 70 pitches tonight. This takes the guesswork on our part out of the equation. While I love his matchup against the White Sox, I’m not sure 70 pitches is enough to justify consideration. He would need a very efficient outing just to make it through five innings.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fulmer in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are an offense that I like targeting when they are playing at home against a subpar pitcher. Tonight they are playing on the road against Michael Fulmer, who is a decent pitcher when healthy. A case can potentially be made for Yoan Moncada, who offers a nice mix of speed and power at a relatively cheap price point. On the season, Fulmer has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.307 0.166 28.7% 7.2% 19.1% 47.2% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,200
2 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.331 0.192 38.1% 10.6% 34.9% 31.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 2B $7,400
3 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.320 0.197 34.3% 2.9% 26.2% 46.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.323 0.252 39.3% 4.4% 35.2% 44.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 RF $7,300
5 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.276 0.168 27.7% 5.7% 25.8% 47.5% SS $3,000 SS $4,100 SS $8,400
6 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.328 0.187 31.6% 8.9% 19.8% 44.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.329 0.213 36.2% 11.3% 36.4% 39.7% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,900 3B $7,300
8 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.302 0.011 17.1% 2.1% 9.3% 62.2% C $2,000 C $3,200 C $6,500
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.260 0.118 28.4% 4.2% 28.2% 36.2% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
Team Averages 0.308 0.167 31.3% 6.4% 26.1% 44.5%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada (Cash), Daniel Palka, Nick Delmonico

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers may not have the most lethal offense around, but they do draw a nice matchup against Reynaldo Lopez. In addition to a low strikeout rate, Lopez has allowed a .362 xwOBA to lefties and a .381 xwOBA to righties this season. The best part is that he gives up a lot of fly balls, which makes me love this spot for Nick Castellanos. He owns a .379 xwOBA and a .196 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.292 0.173 34.9% 11.4% 24.9% 39.4% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
2 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.272 0.106 25.4% 4.2% 11.0% 45.4% SS $3,200 SS $3,400 SS $6,500
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.379 0.196 47.8% 6.5% 23.4% 34.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
4 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.320 0.230 38.5% 9.0% 29.2% 39.1% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,200
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.337 0.085 38.6% 7.4% 9.0% 38.4% C $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.307 0.155 40.3% 4.5% 20.2% 43.9% OF $2,600 1B $3,500 LF $6,900
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.282 0.137 25.7% 8.3% 25.0% 43.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.287 0.091 39.4% 5.8% 23.0% 40.1% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.259 0.030 34.9% 2.9% 19.1% 50.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 LF $5,900
Team Averages 0.304 0.134 36.2% 6.7% 20.5% 41.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious