MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-13 19:35:43

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Pittsburgh
			Junior Guerra							Nick Kingham
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-101							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.334	41.4%	89.4	25.0%	37.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.352	36.1%	89.8	14.9%	36.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.319	43.2%	88.5	21.7%	41.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.314	39.3%	91.2	29.5%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:			$9,200	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:			7 of 30	Salary Rank:			5 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2017	14	5.23	5.12	21.3%	13.7%	33.5%	33.5%	18.5%	91.9	10.9%
	2018	17	4.18	2.79	23.5%	9.4%	39.1%	42.3%	17.4%	93.1	9.7%
	L14	3	4.17	2.65	24.0%	9.3%	36.0%	50.0%	16.0%	93.1	8.3%

Per usual Friday tradition, we have 15 games on the schedule tonight. The bigger the slate, the bigger the tournaments we see across the industry and we certainly don’t have a shortage of large GPPs tonight. The first thing I noticed when glancing at the player pool is the lack of elite pitching options. It feels like a good time to load up on the mid-range in order to spend up on hitters. We start with a fairly easy fade in Guerra, who is due for regression in the second half of the season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact (42%) and he doesn’t have the best control (9% walk rate). He’s facing a low-strikeout Pirates’ team on the road in game that is basically set as a pick ‘em.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Guerra in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Kingham
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:			11 of 30	Salary Rank:			13 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30

	2018	8	3.92	4.26	22.2%	5.8%	38.6%	37.6%	15.0%	92.4	11.9%
	L14	2	4.95	6.00	15.6%	8.9%	46.9%	39.4%	12.1%	92.6	12.3%

We’ve seen the good and bad Kingham in his two starts since being called up to the majors. He gave up seven runs in only three innings of work against the Dodgers, but bounced back with six strong innings against the Phillies where he struck out five and only gave up one run. Rookie pitchers tend to be more volatile than veterans and we’ve certainly seen that with Kingham this season. While I felt great about Jameson Taillon in this spot last night, I don’t have those same warm and fuzzy feelings for Kingham. It’s not you, it’s me. Well technically, it’s the Brewers, whose projected lineup has a .340 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching is lacking tonight, but Kingham is a deep tournament dart at best.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have an offense that can explode at any time. They are facing a pitcher that has that same quality. The range of outcomes is quite broad here. We are still dealing with a small sample size (eight starts), but Nick Kingham has been a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled against lefties. With a 15% strikeout rate and a .352 xwOBA, we should have some interest in the Brewers’ lefties in tournaments. Eric Thames (.411 xwOBA), Christian Yelich (.394 xwOBA), and Travis Shaw (.400 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and all mash right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.411	92.6	0.328	48.8%	12.1%	27.0%	33.3%	OF	$4,000	1B/OF	$4,800	1B	$9,200
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	89.1	0.112	35.3%	13.4%	19.4%	59.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.394	93.1	0.196	45.7%	10.8%	22.9%	51.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.395	90.6	0.314	46.0%	7.9%	27.8%	31.4%	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,200	1B	$9,900
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.400	90.2	0.276	41.8%	14.2%	17.6%	33.9%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.351	92.1	0.191	46.6%	10.7%	31.5%	34.0%	SS	$2,400	1B/2B	$3,500	2B	$6,700
7	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.388	87.3	0.368	44.8%	4.9%	24.4%	32.1%	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900	3B	$5,900
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.302	92.5	0.163	56.3%	2.1%	23.4%	40.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$4,700
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.086	71.4	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	33.3%	37.5%	P	$8,200	P	$9,200	P	$17,700
	Team Averages		0.340	88.8	0.216	41.7%	8.5%	25.3%	39.2%

Elite Plays – Eric Thames (GPP), Christian Yelich (GPP), Travis Shaw (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (Cash), Christian Yelich (Cash), Travis Shaw (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have been a favorite target of mine recently thanks to some suppressed salaries across the industry. Unfortunately, that’s no longer the case, although Colin Moran and Francisco Cervelli seem immune to price hikes. Even though this isn’t the greatest ballpark for hitters, a matchup against Junior Guerra is intriguing. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to both left (41%) and right-handed hitters (43%). The Pirates are a fly-ball hitting offense, which could lead to home runs or a lot of fly outs. They aren’t stack worthy, but Gregory Polanco, Moran, and Cervelli are all viable in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.339	87.7	0.159	34.2%	4.1%	11.8%	33.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,300
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.319	86.6	0.167	29.9%	6.2%	20.7%	47.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,500
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.362	90.8	0.221	35.5%	13.9%	22.9%	33.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
4	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.374	88.5	0.168	34.5%	8.9%	14.8%	41.5%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.412	89.7	0.243	38.4%	13.3%	19.4%	33.9%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,700
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.327	88.4	0.129	29.7%	9.9%	16.8%	52.1%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,700
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.278	82.8	0.090	29.9%	3.8%	15.3%	38.3%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.317	88.1	0.136	26.5%	7.5%	23.3%	41.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,900
9	Nick Kingham	RIGHT	0.147	79.2	0.143	25.0%	12.5%	37.5%	50.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,900	P	$15,200
	Team Averages		0.319	86.9	0.162	31.5%	8.9%	20.3%	41.3%

Elite Plays – Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli (FD), Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Texas								Baltimore
			Cole Hamels							Alex Cobb
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TEX-104							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.339	34.0%	85.8	16.4%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.385	0.364	34.8%	88.4	18.3%	42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.363	47.0%	89.7	24.7%	42.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.383	0.361	33.7%	90.5	12.3%	56.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:		$17,800
	Salary Rank:			16 of 30	Salary Rank:			6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	24	4.90	4.20	17.1%	8.6%	47.5%	36.0%	13.7%	92.0	9.7%
	2018	18	4.01	4.28	23.5%	8.7%	43.5%	44.9%	16.2%	91.2	12.3%
	L14	3	3.07	11.81	24.1%	5.2%	53.7%	41.5%	14.6%	91.9	17.5%

Hamels has been around for a very long time. I still remember targeting him in my very first days of DFS. Ah, those were the glory days. While we didn’t have much in terms of big payouts, the rake was low, there were freerolls galore, and the referral bonuses were to die for. While Hamels has improved his strikeout rate (24%) and swinging strike rate this season (12%), he’s not inducing as many ground balls and his hard contact rate is up to 45%. His struggles have largely come against righties and he will likely face nine of them tonight against the Orioles.

Quick Breakdown: Hamels is a no from me. It’s a tough matchup on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:			29 of 30	Salary Rank:			28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%	91.7	6.7%
	2018	16	4.58	6.57	15.2%	6.3%	50.0%	34.2%	18.9%	92.0	7.2%
	L14	3	5.21	6.61	14.1%	9.0%	48.2%	34.5%	12.1%	92.3	7.7%

While I’m not a big fan of Alex Cobb (at least not his skill set), I do love me a good piece of corn on the cob. Although, if you are one of those people that use a knife and cut their corn off the cob, I’m not sure that we can be friends. Back to the Cobb with two Bs, he has a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15%. His ground ball rate is nice, but not enough to overcome a lack of talent. He has one of the lowest swinging strike rates of the slate and should be avoided against the Rangers, whose projected lineup has a .337 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If you are playing Cobb in a 15-game slate, you probably should head over to RotoAcademy.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers go from one hitter’s park in Texas to another in Baltimore. Even though Alex Cobb owns a 56% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters, he hasn’t had much success against batters from either side of the plate. When you have a low strikeout rate and give up a lot of hard contact, it’s not surprising that he has allowed a .360+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. I wouldn’t call any of the Rangers’ hitters priority plays, but Adrian Beltre and Rougned Odor offer nice salary cap relief in the middle of the order, while Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara provide power from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.428	90.9	0.256	49.7%	15.1%	20.8%	48.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,600
2	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.313	87.2	0.129	30.9%	7.7%	12.5%	50.6%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,500
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.372	90.9	0.173	39.4%	9.7%	19.0%	53.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,000
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.339	88.9	0.130	43.6%	8.6%	19.4%	41.9%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.327	87.5	0.158	40.6%	9.1%	25.5%	36.7%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,900
6	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.333	87.1	0.176	34.3%	7.4%	15.2%	43.6%	3B	$3,200	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,500
7	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.387	94.5	0.245	48.8%	14.1%	34.3%	31.2%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,400	1B	$8,400
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.289	88.5	0.206	49.4%	7.9%	40.0%	31.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,800	C	$7,400
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.245	79.6	0.057	25.8%	10.6%	24.6%	47.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.337	88.3	0.170	40.3%	10.0%	23.5%	42.9%

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Rougned Odor (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Rougned Odor (Cash), Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

We don’t have to do a deep dive into the splits of Cole Hamels because the Orioles are likely going to roll out an exclusively right-handed lineup tonight. On the season, Hamels has allowed a .363 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate to righties. The issue is that he also has a 25% k-rate against batters from that side of the plate and we know that the Orioles aren’t shy when it comes to striking out. Tim Beckham offers nice salary cap relief batting leadoff, while Manny Machado and Danny Valencia both boast a .220+ ISO against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.334	87.4	0.179	42.1%	12.5%	28.1%	33.3%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,300	SS	$6,700
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.320	88.9	0.062	28.4%	2.0%	10.0%	38.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.382	91.7	0.220	34.9%	7.9%	6.9%	37.2%	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000	3B	$9,700
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.336	93.9	0.140	39.0%	7.9%	25.4%	46.3%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,700	DH	$7,700
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.297	86.1	0.079	24.6%	8.3%	13.1%	45.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.413	90.4	0.221	31.1%	11.1%	14.1%	41.9%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,200	3B	$6,400
7	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.268	82.9	0.205	22.6%	6.4%	27.7%	29.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,900
8	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.293	88.7	0.129	27.4%	7.3%	25.5%	68.5%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.289	85.7	0.063	18.4%	2.0%	20.0%	39.5%	C	$2,200	C	$2,500	C	$5,100
	Team Averages		0.326	88.4	0.144	29.8%	7.3%	19.0%	42.2%

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (Cash), Danny Valencia (Cash), Adam Jones

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Cleveland
			Domingo German							Shane Bieber
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-113							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.334	0.296	36.2%	86.9	21.5%	37.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.422	0.378	55.6%	92.3	22.8%	37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.310	38.4%	88.1	31.6%	39.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.261	37.9%	87.7	23.4%	53.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Domingo German
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:			19 of 30	Salary Rank:			17 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2017	0	3.93	3.14	29.0%	14.5%	54.5%	28.6%	25.7%	96.4	11.1%
	2018	11	3.56	5.06	26.9%	8.1%	38.2%	37.3%	17.7%	94.8	15.0%
	L14	2	4.26	3.18	24.0%	10.0%	30.3%	24.2%	18.2%	94.3	13.3%

German doesn’t get the respect that he deserves, largely thanks to an ERA that’s currently sitting above 5.00 on the season. His advanced numbers suggest some positive regression moving forward — 3.56 SIERA with a 27% strikeout rate. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but there is a lot to like with his skill set. He has elite fastball velocity and his swinging strike rate (15%) is tied with Noah Syndergaard for the best on the slate. Unfortunately, all of this isn’t enough to overcome a matchup against the Indians. Their projected lineup has a .360 xwOBA, a .197 ISO, and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I love the skill set, but will wait for a better matchup to target German.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Shane Bieber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$16,200
	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:			11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30

	2018	6	3.48	3.47	23.1%	3.9%	45.5%	46.4%	8.9%	92.3	11.5%
	L14	3	4.19	4.50	17.5%	3.8%	41.0%	47.5%	8.2%	91.8	11.0%

The other day, my wife looked at me and said, “you’ll never guess what happened today.” Ok I’ll bite — what’s up? “Justin Bieber got engaged.” She acted like this would shock me to the core. I cared so little that I didn’t even respond. Maybe tonight send one her way, “you’ll never believe what happened, Shane Bieber gave up four runs in five innings of work against the Yankees.” While Bieber has shown some positives this season, I didn’t target Corey Kluber against the Yankees, so there is no chance that I will roster Bieber against them.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bieber in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Looking at the PlateIQ tool here on RotoGrinders, Shane Bieber basically has three pitches in his repertoire (not including the changeup since he only throws is 5% of the time). The fastball and slider are his most thrown pitches (78% of the time). Even though he’s been tough on right-handed hitters this season, there are two batters in particular that mash those two pitch types — Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Both make excellent tournament plays in the outfield. As far as the usual splits, Bieber has allowed a .378 xwOBA and a 56% hard contact rate to lefties, which brings Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.308	87.1	0.152	29.9%	12.4%	15.3%	50.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,800	LF	$8,900
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.401	96.5	0.300	49.0%	14.1%	30.9%	46.3%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,600
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.349	88.5	0.245	39.7%	9.2%	12.7%	34.2%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,300
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.300	91.3	0.183	33.8%	8.3%	33.9%	53.9%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,400
5	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.361	88.9	0.217	38.4%	14.1%	18.6%	43.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,500
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.318	88.8	0.227	37.1%	9.1%	26.3%	38.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.352	90.2	0.202	36.6%	2.8%	17.2%	49.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.372	88.4	0.194	37.0%	12.7%	19.0%	41.5%	C	$2,100	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.337	88.3	0.080	35.9%	10.3%	21.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,300	1B/2B	$3,300	2B	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.344	89.8	0.200	37.5%	10.3%	21.7%	44.4%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians are one of the best offenses in baseball. They are loaded with left and right-handed power throughout their lineup and are incredibly tough at home. With that said, a matchup against Domingo German is far from perfect. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. Outside of Edwin Encarnacion, Cleveland has actually struggled against the curveball this season, which is German’s most thrown pitch (37% of the time). This isn’t a reason to target German, but it might be enough of a reason to bump the Indians’ hitters down to secondary plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.411	89.4	0.290	41.1%	9.9%	19.5%	35.7%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,900	SS	$11,000
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.412	91.2	0.207	43.1%	6.8%	8.8%	42.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200	LF	$9,800
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.424	89.5	0.342	39.1%	16.8%	11.5%	31.2%	3B	$4,600	3B	$5,800	IF/OF	$10,600
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.392	90.5	0.269	42.9%	8.3%	23.4%	38.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,000
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.382	90.5	0.180	40.9%	9.7%	20.7%	38.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,600
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.353	87.2	0.127	37.6%	9.7%	19.0%	36.5%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,200
7	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.320	90.1	0.086	40.0%	4.0%	25.8%	52.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,300
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.278	88.0	0.160	40.2%	4.6%	32.2%	37.4%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	C	$7,700
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.266	86.0	0.116	38.0%	5.8%	24.3%	42.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.360	89.2	0.197	40.3%	8.4%	20.6%	39.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Miami
			Jake Arrieta							Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-130							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.329	27.4%	87.3	16.4%	54.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.260	36.8%	88.7	32.2%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.298	29.7%	86.8	17.9%	56.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.377	0.335	34.1%	86.0	12.6%	34.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,900	Salary:		$17,000
	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:			7 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%	92.1	8.7%
	2018	17	4.27	3.47	17.3%	7.5%	55.5%	28.7%	20.3%	93.0	7.4%
	L14	3	3.76	3.71	20.3%	5.4%	54.7%	34.6%	23.6%	93.2	11.1%

Arrieta has a lot of green boxes in his pitching table above. He has a lot of good real life pitcher skills. Unfortunately, one of his only yellow boxes is his strikeout rate (17%). With such a low k-rate, he needs to pitch deep into games or face a high-strikeout offense in order to rack up enough fantasy points to reach value. While he does have an exploitable matchup against the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Miami is a team with a fairly low strikeout rate. I like Arrieta’s chances to pitch deep into this one and he has a decent floor, but he’s unlikely to make the final cut for me in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta isn’t a terrible play tonight, but he’s not going to make my lineups in a 15-game slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Wei-Yin Chen
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$4,800	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:			27 of 30	Salary Rank:			29 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30
	2017	5	4.61	3.82	18.9%	6.8%	36.6%	29.9%	24.7%	90.9	8.7%
	2018	14	5.02	6.14	16.5%	9.1%	37.2%	34.6%	15.5%	90.9	8.0%
	L14	3	3.75	4.41	19.7%	4.6%	48.0%	42.0%	16.0%	92.1	8.4%

Chen isn’t a pitcher that I trust. His numbers are so bad against righties that he would have to face a left-handed heavy lineup to deserve consideration. There are very few offenses in baseball that will throw out more than three lefties when facing a southpaw and the Phillies aren’t one of them. They are projected to have eight righties in their lineup today. This is important to note because Chen has allowed a .335 xwOBA to righties with a k-rate of 13% and a ground ball rate of 35%.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chen in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have one of the easiest matchups of the slate to disentangle. Wei-Yin Chen has held lefties to a .260 xwOBA and a 50% ground ball rate, while allowing a .335 xwOBA, a 35% hard contact rate, and a strikeout rate of only 13% to right-handed hitters. Rhys Hoskins is the highlighted play from this game. He owns a .367 xwOBA against southpaws this season. More importantly, Chen throws mostly fastballs (57% of the time) and Hoskins has a .317 ISO with a ground ball rate of only 19% against that pitch this season. I’m calling my shot — home run for Mr. Hoskins tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.350	88.5	0.057	32.4%	16.2%	19.0%	50.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.367	90.1	0.138	28.9%	21.5%	19.0%	22.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,100
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.308	86.5	0.174	23.3%	4.1%	19.4%	47.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,300
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.369	89.3	0.202	41.6%	11.8%	11.8%	46.8%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,700
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.326	87.4	0.145	34.9%	16.0%	26.7%	46.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	RF	$5,800
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.252	84.5	0.078	25.5%	7.2%	31.3%	34.0%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,500
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.311	91.3	0.150	37.1%	6.3%	39.1%	40.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
8	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.370	88.1	0.217	34.9%	10.1%	10.1%	46.0%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,400
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.379	68.0	0.000	16.7%	12.5%	12.5%	25.0%	P	$8,000	P	$8,900	P	$17,000
	Team Averages		0.337	86.0	0.129	30.6%	11.7%	21.0%	39.8%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (Cash), Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Scott Kingery

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Like most ground ball pitchers, Jake Arrieta throws primarily sinkers (57% of the time). This pitch has allowed him to induce a 54%+ ground ball rate to both left and right-handed hitters. While he doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeout upside, he has still managed to hold both batters from both sides under a .330 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season. The only hitter that comes close to fitting the mold that we are looking for is Justin Bour. He is a fly-ball hitter that owns a 46% hard contact rate against the sinker this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.350	88.2	0.160	36.0%	6.3%	21.0%	41.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.356	89.9	0.112	37.9%	7.8%	18.9%	51.5%	OF	$3,200	3B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,500
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.399	91.3	0.268	42.7%	5.9%	16.0%	43.3%	C	$3,300	C	$4,600	C	$9,000
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.385	90.5	0.239	42.6%	16.9%	25.1%	39.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,600
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.315	87.7	0.127	36.4%	5.9%	19.0%	48.8%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,200
6	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.287	89.1	0.082	25.0%	4.5%	19.1%	44.1%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,900
7	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.323	88.0	0.212	35.4%	4.5%	21.6%	42.5%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,400
8	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.298	88.5	0.076	38.4%	10.4%	24.6%	49.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.113	73.5	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	37.5%	88.9%	P	$6,000	P	$4,800	P	$9,000
	Team Averages		0.314	87.4	0.142	32.7%	6.9%	22.5%	50.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Toronto								Boston
			Ryan Borucki							Rick Porcello
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-210							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.243	0.269	28.6%	86.4	12.5%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.328	39.3%	89.2	26.9%	33.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.325	31.1%	89.7	21.5%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.300	25.5%	87.5	19.3%	53.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ryan Borucki
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:			24 of 30	Salary Rank:			25 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	2018	3	4.21	2.25	19.8%	7.4%	44.1%	30.5%	11.9%	91.8	9.0%
	L14	3	4.21	2.25	19.8%	7.4%	44.1%	30.5%	11.9%	91.8	9.0%

Borucki is making his fourth career major league start tonight in Fenway. While this is a great ballpark to visit, this is not a great ballpark to pitch in. That green monster is so intimidating that throwing out the first pitch would give most people nerves, let alone actually making a start here. While Borucki has been very good at run prevention throughout his career in the minors, he doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeouts. He’s a southpaw that will be facing some of the best right-handed power hitters in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Borucki in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,600	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:		$18,600
	Salary Rank:			2 of 30	Salary Rank:			3 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%	91.1	9.4%
	2018	19	3.72	3.58	22.7%	5.4%	45.4%	31.2%	21.5%	90.4	8.7%
	L14	3	3.87	4.34	22.6%	6.0%	40.0%	40.0%	15.0%	90.1	6.8%

For some strange reason, people hate targeting Porcello in DFS. It’s similar to the hate Tiger Woods gets in the higher stakes tournaments across the industry. I don’t really understand it, but I will continue to exploit it. On the season, Porcello owns a respectable 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s really worked hard to lower his hard contact rate and improve his soft contact rate. While his strikeout rate is higher when facing a lefty, he has held righties to a .300 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate. He’ll likely face five righties tonight against the Blue Jays — a team that he has dominated in the past.

Quick Breakdown: In a slate that lacks elite pitching, I’ll take Porcello in all formats at a price under $10,000.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays haven’t had much success against Rick Porcello in the past. Their current roster has a .287 wOBA against him with 49 strikeouts in 236 plate appearances. The fact that they only ever face him in hitter-friendly ballparks makes those numbers for Porcello even more impressive. He has been tough on righties this season, but has allowed a 39% hard contact rate with a high fly-ball rate to lefties. While far from core plays, Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales are all viable one-offs for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.352	88.1	0.216	36.6%	13.3%	27.9%	33.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,300
2	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.338	88.5	0.170	30.1%	8.2%	15.5%	40.3%	3B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,600
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.396	91.9	0.239	36.2%	17.6%	26.0%	34.6%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,500
4	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.388	92.0	0.234	39.7%	5.2%	24.5%	37.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,300
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.396	93.4	0.220	44.6%	8.0%	23.3%	42.9%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.312	90.4	0.141	31.1%	16.0%	23.8%	46.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,500
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.331	87.8	0.159	34.8%	4.0%	19.8%	38.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.345	89.2	0.189	34.5%	3.0%	12.7%	42.4%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.278	87.7	0.105	23.7%	5.9%	22.8%	62.4%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,600
	Team Averages		0.348	89.9	0.186	34.6%	9.0%	21.8%	42.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

We are still dealing with a small sample size, but Ryan Borucki has thrown a ton of sinkers (over 60%) in his first few major league starts. It’s always difficult to weigh all of the different hitting splits that we can look at. For instance, Mookie Betts has mashed southpaws to the tune of a .475 xwOBA this season. However, his numbers against the sinker aren’t appealing for a player at his price point. The same goes for Steve Pearce (who left yesterday’s game after being hit by a pitch) and Xander Bogaerts. This is an approach that could make me look like a genius or a fool, but I will only be playing one Red Sox hitter tonight. J.D. Martinez always hits lefties well and currently carries a 64% hard contact rate against the sinker this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.475	91.2	0.388	38.3%	13.8%	11.3%	38.3%	OF	$5,200	OF	$6,100	RF	$11,200
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.282	85.1	0.200	17.9%	9.4%	23.5%	44.6%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,300	LF	$9,800
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.405	94.2	0.231	49.0%	6.0%	32.5%	41.2%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,800	RF	$10,300
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.447	87.1	0.232	32.6%	6.7%	16.7%	39.1%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.368	91.3	0.143	31.9%	16.0%	21.3%	36.2%	SS	$4,000	SS	$5,100	SS	$9,500
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.317	87.3	0.088	28.8%	6.9%	17.2%	49.2%	2B	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,600	2B	$7,300
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.312	85.0	0.080	15.8%	16.7%	20.0%	55.6%	2B	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,400
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.365	85.5	0.121	42.3%	8.1%	21.6%	30.8%	C	$2,300	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.294	88.7	0.078	28.6%	2.9%	31.4%	59.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.363	88.4	0.173	31.7%	9.6%	21.7%	43.8%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce (if active), Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 13th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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