MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 27th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City NY Yankees
kansascitymlb Brad Keller nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-290 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.339 29.3% 15.0% 15.8% 57.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.272 18.0% 11.0% 22.0% 56.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.310 33.8% 6.4% 14.5% 57.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.314 32.0% 5.8% 17.0% 43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Keller
brad-keller-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 9 4.63 3.20 15.1% 9.9% 57.2% 32.1% 17.9% 94.2 8.0%
L14 2 4.56 7.45 20.0% 13.3% 62.1% 36.7% 10.0% 93.5 8.3%

We’ve made it to the weekend. After taking care of a two-year old that just had his tonsils removed and dealing with a cracked water heater that flooded my basement, I am ready for some down time. If that happens to be accompanied by some DFS winnings, all the better. There are 15 games on the schedule tonight and a bevy of options at each position. My main piece of advice is to never settle in these large slates. You should feel good about every player on your roster.

One pitcher that I don’t have the utmost confidence in is Brad Keller, who owns a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15% on the season. He does have an elite ground ball rate (57%), but a very low floor and ceiling combination in DFS. He draws the worst of matchups tonight, as he squares off against the Yankees in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Do you see the line and total for this game?

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Keller in both cash games and tournaments.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,900
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1% 90.9 8.9%
2018 18 4.46 3.51 17.9% 6.7% 45.3% 29.8% 25.0% 90.2 10.2%
L14 1 4.22 6.35 8.7% 8.7% 73.7% 47.4% 21.1% 90.7 5.4%

Even at the ripe old age of 38, Sabathia continues to pitch well in the majors. He not only pitches for one of the best teams in baseball, but he does it in a difficult division. The Yankees will get into the playoffs one way or another, but would like to win the AL East crown. They currently trail the Red Sox by 4.5 games. They’ll try to inch closer tonight, as they square off against the Royals. Sabathia may not have an elite strikeout rate anymore, but he throws a lot of strikes and induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He’s cheap across the industry and has some appeal as a reliable SP2.

Quick Breakdown: The Royals strikeout at a higher rate than most people realize. Sabathia is a fine SP2 tonight on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a significant ballpark upgrade playing in New York, but are still an offense that I will be avoiding in a 15-game slate. CC Sabathia has one of the highest soft contact rates (25%) of any pitcher in the slate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. Whit Merrifield (.202 ISO against southpaws) would have some appeal as a one-off in a smaller slate, but there are better options at second base.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.399 0.202 41.4% 7.0% 15.6% 30.6% 2B $3,900 2B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
2 Rosell Herrera SWITCH 0.321 0.059 50.0% 2.7% 13.5% 51.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 2B $6,000
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.350 0.157 37.9% 3.1% 15.4% 42.6% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,300
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.320 0.177 41.4% 4.7% 26.7% 37.9% C $3,100 C $4,100 C $8,200
5 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.273 0.150 26.7% 13.0% 21.7% 46.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.282 0.091 26.2% 1.4% 34.2% 33.3% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
7 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.298 0.057 29.4% 14.5% 30.6% 38.2% 1B $2,300 1B $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.298 0.133 30.6% 6.0% 19.0% 45.7% SS $2,100 SS $3,000 SS $5,700
9 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.229 0.190 42.9% 4.5% 31.8% 35.7% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,200
Team Averages 0.308 0.135 36.3% 6.3% 23.2% 40.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

NY Yankees

The Yankees’ stack didn’t quite work out as we had hoped and they lost Aaron Judge in the process. Well, I’m sure they know where he is, but they will be without him for at least three weeks, as he suffered a chip fracture in his right wrist. Luckily, they have one of the deepest offenses in baseball, so they should be able to hold the fort down while he’s out. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against Brad Keller, who has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. With the short porch in right field, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird all stand out as elite plays. Given the fact that the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, a full Yankees’ stack should be on your radar in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.302 0.157 28.6% 11.7% 14.7% 51.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.307 0.180 34.6% 7.8% 32.8% 51.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 RF $9,300
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.348 0.255 38.9% 8.3% 13.0% 34.3% SS $3,500 SS $4,800 SS $9,000
4 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.352 0.182 38.5% 14.0% 19.3% 44.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.380 0.231 38.3% 6.3% 26.7% 30.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,300
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.325 0.250 42.4% 8.3% 26.4% 36.3% 1B $3,000 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.347 0.177 37.6% 3.8% 17.2% 50.2% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
8 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.344 0.099 36.2% 10.8% 22.1% 39.1% 2B $2,500 1B/2B $3,700 2B $7,400
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.343 0.223 35.1% 10.2% 21.3% 42.5% C $2,100 C $3,500 C $6,700
Team Averages 0.339 0.195 36.7% 9.0% 21.5% 42.3%

Elite PlaysBrett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird

Secondary PlaysGiancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar

StackabilityGREEN


NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Pittsburgh
nymetsmlb Jason Vargas pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.434 0.395 33.3% 11.8% 13.7% 36.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.391 33.7% 3.8% 11.9% 42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.427 0.363 39.0% 6.2% 19.4% 36.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.321 35.4% 4.4% 23.1% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,100 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.86 4.16 17.7% 7.7% 40.3% 32.7% 17.9% 85.6 9.9%
2018 9 4.74 8.60 17.8% 7.8% 36.2% 37.4% 15.3% 87.0 10.5%

Vargas is one of those pitchers that is just out there to eat up innings. He doesn’t have the best skill set or the best numbers. In nine starts this season, he has a 4.74 SIERA with a low strikeout rate and a hard contact rate that is higher than his ground ball rate. As noted in yesterday’s Grind Down, the Pirates have some sneaky upside when facing southpaws. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has four right-handed hitters with at least a .350 xwOBA against lefties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas offers more risk than upside at this point.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,800
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6% 92.8 8.4%
2018 19 4.20 4.28 17.5% 4.1% 45.7% 34.4% 17.2% 93.0 8.9%
L14 2 4.67 2.38 10.9% 4.4% 50.0% 30.8% 23.1% 92.5 5.5%

Nova is a pitcher that I end up using a few times each season, but the conditions always have to be the same. He has to be pitching in a good ballpark (preferably in Pittsburgh) and he has to be facing a right-handed heavy offense. He has the first part of the equation down tonight, but will likely face a left-handed heavy Mets’ lineup. If that’s the case, we can look elsewhere. We certainly don’t have a shortage of options in a 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on what the Mets’ lineup looks like, Nova will either be an easy fade or a serviceable SP2.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets were one of the top producing stacks of last night’s slate, which was a surprise given the fact that they were facing a talented young pitcher in Nick Kingham. Baseball can certainly be random at times, but I suppose we should never be shocked when a rookie gets shelled, regardless of their pedigree. Tonight’s matchup against Ivan Nova is simple — target the left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .391 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 12% when facing batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.284 0.123 27.3% 5.3% 19.5% 48.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.365 0.250 43.6% 8.1% 20.4% 40.3% 2B $3,000 2B $4,100 SS $8,100
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.349 0.154 35.4% 17.0% 20.8% 38.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 LF $8,300
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.321 0.227 35.7% 8.2% 8.8% 36.4% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,500
5 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.370 0.249 36.6% 13.3% 27.5% 35.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
6 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.346 0.179 43.2% 15.1% 29.5% 30.9% OF $2,900 3B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,700
7 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.484 0.000 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 2B $2,000 2B/3B $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.324 0.182 33.6% 6.2% 18.6% 31.1% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $5,800
9 Jason Vargas LEFT 0.166 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 36.4% 25.0% P $5,500 P $4,100 P $8,600
Team Averages 0.334 0.152 31.6% 11.8% 20.2% 37.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAsdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates should fly under the radar tonight given the fact that there are so many games on the schedule. This isn’t the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but the Pirates put the ball in play and have an exploitable matchup against Jason Vargas. On the season, he has allowed a .395 xwOBA to lefties and a .363 xwOBA to righties. Assuming Jordan Luplow bats leadoff again, he is one of the better value options in the outfield. Starling Marte (if back in the lineup), David Freese, Francisco Cervelli, and Josh Harrison are all viable, as they all boast a .330+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.353 0.250 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 10.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.352 0.228 32.2% 8.0% 24.1% 55.2% OF $3,800 OF $5,200 CF $9,400
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.296 0.205 32.7% 11.1% 24.4% 33.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $9,300
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.372 0.065 38.3% 11.2% 21.3% 56.7% 3B $2,100 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,300
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.314 0.129 27.7% 13.9% 21.8% 41.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.361 0.150 34.5% 16.7% 22.9% 34.5% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,900
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.322 0.148 39.2% 4.6% 15.4% 33.3% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.347 0.143 33.9% 5.9% 15.3% 33.8% SS $2,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,700
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.085 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 33.3% P $7,400 P $5,900 P $11,800
Team Averages 0.311 0.146 27.6% 7.9% 24.3% 36.8%

Elite PlaysJordan Luplow, Josh Harrison (if batting at the top of the order)

Secondary PlaysStarling Marte, Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

StackabilityYELLOW


Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Chris Archer baltimoremlb Andrew Cashner
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.350 40.5% 8.7% 21.4% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.371 34.0% 9.4% 21.4% 35.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.326 42.5% 6.5% 29.0% 44.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.356 0.361 29.9% 9.6% 14.4% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,500
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2% 95.5 13.4%
2018 16 3.66 4.30 25.6% 7.5% 44.1% 41.6% 16.5% 94.6 13.5%
L14 2 1.65 3.48 41.7% 2.1% 34.6% 50.0% 15.4% 95.0 19.6%

Archer has been a candidate for positive regression all season. He’s been a bit unlucky with his BABIP (.347) and HR/FB rate (12.5%), both of which are well above the major league average. While he does allow a lot of hard contact, he’s still had good control and a high swinging strike rate. I’m willing to buy in on his talent the rest of the way, especially in matchups like this one. The Orioles not only have a right-handed heavy projected lineup, but it has an average k-rate of 27% against right-handed pitching. If you glance at the table above, you can see that Archer has a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is an elite play in all formats. I’m planning to be way overweight on the field.

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 5.52 3.40 12.2% 9.1% 48.6% 28.4% 18.5% 93.4 6.1%
2018 19 4.85 4.40 17.9% 9.5% 41.0% 31.9% 19.4% 92.7 6.8%
L14 1 5.42 1.59 9.1% 4.6% 36.8% 36.8% 26.3% 90.9 1.3%

Cashner is typically one of my favorite pitchers to see on the schedule because I often stack against him. Last season he was able to induce ground balls and limit hard contact, but he hasn’t done much of anything well this season. He owns a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters. The good news is that he is facing a Rays’ offense that is equally as terrible. I’m not sure we need to dip down to Cashner tonight, but he does have an intriguing matchup and price point.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner likely won’t make any of my lineups, but he’s not the worst value out there.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards, but don’t really have the firepower needed to take advantage of it. The fact that they are priced up across the industry doesn’t help. A matchup against Andrew Cashner is appealing, but do we really want to take up our coveted roster spots with the Rays’ hitters in a 15-game slate. Jake Bauers and C.J. Cron both boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching, but are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.257 0.104 35.4% 7.8% 28.9% 53.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.318 0.094 30.1% 5.7% 14.8% 52.9% 3B $2,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,400
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.363 0.248 43.7% 13.5% 24.1% 40.2% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,500
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.353 0.227 36.7% 5.9% 24.7% 42.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.324 0.232 41.2% 6.7% 36.7% 38.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
6 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.319 0.135 34.4% 11.8% 27.2% 50.4% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,900 2B $7,200
7 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.300 0.091 36.2% 4.2% 17.5% 39.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
8 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.259 0.024 26.0% 4.4% 14.4% 39.4% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,800
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.289 0.127 29.8% 8.9% 19.3% 44.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,200
Team Averages 0.309 0.142 34.8% 7.7% 23.1% 44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysJake Bauers, C.J. Cron

StackabilityORANGE

Baltimore

The best way to attack Chris Archer is with batters that are patient and preferably ones that bat from the left side of the plate. The Orioles aren’t very patient and have one of the most right-handed heavy lineups in baseball. The only two lefties that they have projected to start tonight have struggled against right-handed pitching this season. This is a full fade if I’ve ever seen one. The more I look at this matchup, the more I want to load up on Archer.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.272 0.077 26.5% 4.6% 27.5% 46.5% SS $2,700 3B $3,000 SS $5,400
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.260 0.218 27.0% 2.0% 22.6% 45.7% 2B $3,500 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.326 0.172 32.0% 3.3% 18.4% 40.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.358 0.197 41.0% 7.1% 24.7% 38.8% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,400 DH $6,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.296 0.118 33.8% 7.6% 35.6% 41.6% 1B $2,200 1B $3,000 IF/OF $5,400
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.364 0.155 33.5% 9.0% 24.3% 51.7% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.258 0.121 31.8% 5.7% 31.4% 36.4% 3B $2,200 3B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.310 0.157 31.4% 12.1% 25.5% 47.6% OF $2,000 3B/OF $3,600 2B $7,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.276 0.172 24.2% 3.1% 28.6% 40.0% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $4,800
Team Averages 0.302 0.154 31.2% 6.1% 26.5% 43.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED


Cleveland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco detroitmlb Mike Fiers
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.305 36.7% 7.3% 28.6% 40.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.354 37.1% 7.1% 18.1% 36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.311 38.7% 3.8% 25.5% 43.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.335 35.5% 3.3% 16.9% 41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,400 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4% 94.3 13.4%
2018 18 3.32 4.03 27.0% 5.4% 42.2% 37.8% 14.2% 93.4 13.6%
L14 1 2.02 2.35 37.0% 3.7% 50.0% 62.5% 25.0% 94.2 17.3%

Carrasco has a lot working in his favor heading into tonight’s start. Outside of two bad outings (both against the Twins), he’s been in excellent form over the last two months. In 18 starts this year, he owns a 3.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Throughout his career, he has had significantly better splits on the road than he has at home. This season is no different, as he has averaged seven more fantasy points per game (DK scoring) in starts away from Cleveland. And finally, he is facing a Tigers’ offense that he has been dominant against in the past.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is expensive, but I’m willing to pay the premium in all formats.

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1% 89.7 9.1%
2018 19 4.50 3.49 17.5% 5.1% 39.4% 36.2% 17.6% 88.9 8.4%
L14 2 4.70 2.19 14.6% 5.5% 47.7% 27.3% 13.6% 90.8 6.3%

Fiers may have an ERA under 4.00 this season, but his peripheral statistics suggest some regression. In his 19 starts, he has a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout of 18% and a hard contact rate of 36%. It takes a near-perfect matchup for him to warrant consideration as a play in DFS and he obviously doesn’t have that tonight against the Indians. Cleveland’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .367 with a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fiers in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians should be licking their chops for tonight’s matchup against Mike Fiers. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has given up a .354 xwOBA to lefties and a .335 xwOBA to righties, so batters from both sides of the plate are viable against him. This is a decent ballpark for home run production and the Indians are the visiting team, which guarantees ninth-inning at bats. I will be ignoring Cleveland’s poor BvP against Fiers and will be funning a full stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.411 0.282 43.0% 9.7% 17.3% 35.3% SS $4,600 SS $5,000 SS $9,800
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.411 0.199 44.4% 7.1% 8.2% 43.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 LF $8,300
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.425 0.362 40.3% 17.1% 11.6% 31.2% 3B $4,900 3B $5,600 IF/OF $10,500
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.392 0.280 42.7% 8.7% 22.9% 37.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,600
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.386 0.192 39.1% 10.1% 19.9% 39.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.330 0.085 34.6% 4.5% 11.9% 45.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,700
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.345 0.133 36.7% 10.1% 18.5% 36.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,400
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.279 0.147 39.4% 4.4% 29.6% 34.1% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,700
9 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.325 0.095 41.3% 3.6% 22.8% 54.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.367 0.197 40.2% 8.4% 18.1% 39.7%

Elite PlaysFrancisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary PlaysMichael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis

StackabilityYELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers haven’t had any success against Carlos Carrasco in the past and there’s nothing to suggest that it will change anytime soon. We touched on Carrasco’s elite road splits throughout his career. Additionally, he has a high strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.398 0.164 41.9% 10.5% 21.5% 38.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
2 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.329 0.220 35.5% 8.9% 32.2% 40.3% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,100 1B $6,000
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.382 0.192 49.1% 5.9% 23.4% 34.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
4 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.301 0.202 34.6% 11.9% 24.6% 38.2% 3B $3,200 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.070 41.4% 7.2% 9.2% 39.9% C $2,600 1B $2,800 1B $5,600
6 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.202 0.133 23.8% 6.3% 28.1% 52.4% OF $2,000 1B $2,900 LF $5,800
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.274 0.089 35.7% 5.1% 21.7% 39.5% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,900
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.267 0.097 24.2% 3.5% 10.9% 46.8% SS $2,700 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.236 0.047 30.3% 1.2% 22.1% 52.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
Team Averages 0.303 0.135 35.2% 6.7% 21.5% 42.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED


Minnesota at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Boston
minnesotamlb Lance Lynn bostonmlb Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-360 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.382 0.388 41.1% 16.0% 14.4% 57.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.191 0.200 21.3% 3.4% 39.8% 48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.308 35.3% 12.2% 27.1% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.249 27.8% 6.4% 37.0% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1% 91.8 9.0%
2018 19 4.77 5.23 21.9% 13.8% 51.8% 37.9% 20.4% 93.1 10.2%
L14 1 6.53 5.40 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 66.7% 25.0% 93.1 10.2%

Lynn has some appealing numbers (22% strikeout rate and a 52% ground ball rate), but those are accompanied by high walk and hard contact rates. He needs to face a strikeout-prone right-handed heavy lineup to warrant consideration in DFS. The Red Sox have plenty of lefties and one of the lowest k-rates of any team in baseball. We could put the other 29 pitchers in a hat and randomly draw one and we’d have an excellent chance of picking one that outproduces Lynn tonight.

Quick Breakdown: We know better than to target Lynn in any format.

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,800 Salary: $13,500 Salary: $26,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5% 94.4 14.9%
2018 21 2.37 2.13 37.5% 5.9% 44.9% 26.7% 28.5% 94.7 16.0%
L14 1 1.38 0.00 42.9% 0.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.3% 96.2 15.2%

Sale is my favorite pitching option on the board and it’s not particularly close. That says a lot given the fact that Max Scherzer is facing the Marlins. Sale has been on a tier of his own this season, posting a 2.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. While those numbers are truly impressive, the fact that he has a 29% soft contact rate with how hard he throws the ball is incredible. Tonight he gets to face a Twins’ offense that has struggled against southpaws all season. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .284 with a strikeout rate of 20% against lefties.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the top pitcher on the board and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

This is one of those situations where if the Twins knock Chris Sale around, I’ll move on to tomorrow’s slate knowing I made the right decision and that I would make the same one time and time again. We have an atrocious offense that is facing the best pitcher in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.348 0.074 40.9% 8.8% 16.5% 56.1% 1B $2,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.281 0.147 34.6% 4.2% 21.0% 41.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
3 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.276 0.128 27.0% 13.5% 18.9% 44.6% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,200
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.316 0.115 35.2% 10.8% 20.8% 40.9% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $3,800 3B $7,700
5 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.312 0.081 31.9% 12.7% 21.1% 36.2% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,700
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.280 0.132 27.1% 8.9% 21.8% 38.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 LF $7,600
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.338 0.215 38.1% 9.9% 20.7% 34.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
8 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.203 0.034 45.8% 0.0% 17.2% 33.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.206 0.069 33.3% 9.4% 25.0% 52.4% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.284 0.111 34.9% 8.7% 20.3% 42.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

Boston

This will not be a popular take tonight, but I don’t love a full Red Sox stack. I know they are playing at home and I know they are capable of scoring double-digit runs, but Lance Lynn has been tough on right-handed hitters. On the season, he has held them to a .308 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate and a 47% ground ball rate. I love the left-handed bats of Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland, but will be attacking this offense through one-offs rather than as a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.468 0.279 46.7% 11.5% 13.3% 32.9% OF $5,000 OF $6,100 RF $11,100
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.417 0.221 31.2% 13.6% 14.5% 35.9% OF $4,000 OF $5,900 LF $11,100
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.463 0.356 47.7% 10.0% 21.6% 45.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,200
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.431 0.239 37.3% 11.6% 18.2% 40.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.385 0.273 39.0% 6.0% 17.5% 47.2% SS $3,700 SS $5,000 SS $9,500
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.328 0.193 36.8% 7.8% 24.0% 44.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,300
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.333 0.100 28.7% 8.8% 14.3% 55.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.284 0.130 33.3% 4.0% 28.2% 43.6% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.372 0.159 40.1% 10.0% 22.2% 40.4% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
Team Averages 0.387 0.217 37.9% 9.3% 19.3% 42.9%

Elite PlaysAndrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Secondary PlaysMookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Brock Holt

StackabilityYELLOW


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious