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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-15 20:25:57

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Matt Harvey pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.399 40.9% 8.1% 15.3% 36.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.417 41.6% 10.9% 22.4% 30.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.345 38.5% 5.5% 19.5% 45.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.342 30.9% 6.5% 21.9% 39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey
matt-harvey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.44 6.70 15.6% 10.9% 43.0% 32.5% 24.1%
2018 10 4.46 5.97 17.5% 6.8% 40.8% 39.7% 13.8%
L14 2 4.74 7.36 17.0% 8.5% 45.5% 38.2% 14.7%

We have the biggest possible slate on tap tonight and some great tournaments across the industry. We’ll start with Matt Harvey, who has been far from an ace over the last few seasons. In his ten starts this year, he owns a 4.46 SIERA, an 18% strikeout rate, and a 40% hard contact rate. Those numbers are eventually going to lead to trouble, regardless of the matchup or ballpark. We don’t need to spend too much time on Harvey, as he shouldn’t be on our radar in a 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Harvey in both cash games and tournaments.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.79 4.35 20.9% 10.6% 41.9% 36.1% 17.2%
2018 13 4.20 3.95 22.2% 8.7% 35.3% 36.0% 15.2%
L14 2 4.16 3.97 22.0% 8.0% 32.3% 36.4% 9.1%

Kuhl has shown some improvement in his strikeout rate (22%) this season, but still owns a 4.20 SIERA with a hard contact rate (36%) that is higher than his ground ball rate (35%). He doesn’t offer much in terms of upside and it’s not like he has an elite matchup. The Reds have quietly hit right-handed pitching well this season. Their projected lineup has a .338 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. If you are targeting either pitcher from this game, you are likely mass multi-entering tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Kuhl in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Right off the bat, that puts them down the list of potential targets in a full slate. Their matchup against Chad Kuhl is decent, especially for the left-handed hitters in this lineup. On the season, Kuhl has allowed a .417 and a 42% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Scott Schebler (.359 xwOBA), Joey Votto (.467), and Scooter Gennett (.359 xwOBA) all bat from the left side, but the ballpark bumps them down to secondary options tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.359 0.421 0.202 39.0% 7.5% 20.5% 54.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.335 0.322 0.119 36.4% 10.9% 18.6% 41.6% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.467 0.442 0.157 37.2% 16.5% 11.9% 32.1% 1B $4,300 1B $4,800 1B $9,100
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.359 0.316 0.196 41.2% 6.6% 17.3% 40.8% 2B $4,200 2B $4,700 2B $9,000
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.396 0.421 0.239 44.1% 8.0% 17.3% 35.6% 3B $3,800 3B $4,500 3B $9,100
6 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.376 0.378 0.099 41.9% 12.6% 13.1% 42.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 RF $6,700
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.294 0.329 0.087 29.9% 4.0% 12.1% 37.7% SS $3,100 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
8 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.210 0.211 0.000 20.0% 6.7% 26.7% 60.0% P $5,800 P $4,800 P $9,600
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.242 0.257 0.062 17.0% 12.1% 27.3% 46.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.338 0.344 0.129 34.1% 9.4% 18.3% 43.4%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (Cash), Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates aren’t an offense that I tend to load up on, but they are certainly intriguing in a matchup against Matt Harvey. They are sizable favorites tonight and the total is set at 9.0 runs, which is up there for this ballpark. Harvey hasn’t been effective against batters from either side of the plate this season, but we specifically like to target lefties against him. He has allowed a .399 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Austin Meadows (.322 xwOBA), Corey Dickerson (.340 xwOBA), and Colin Moran (.364 xwOBA) are the top targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.309 0.360 0.107 35.4% 5.6% 15.2% 33.7% 2B $3,200 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
2 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.322 0.339 0.182 38.3% 1.8% 15.8% 38.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 CF $8,500
3 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.340 0.270 0.168 32.3% 4.6% 10.2% 31.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,200
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.364 0.341 0.153 32.6% 9.2% 16.2% 40.0% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,700
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.418 0.329 0.266 39.0% 11.9% 19.5% 33.0% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,500
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.332 0.329 0.137 31.5% 10.7% 18.4% 50.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
7 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.356 0.320 0.213 36.9% 12.4% 21.4% 33.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.344 0.437 0.168 28.7% 7.3% 19.1% 40.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,800
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.070 0.108 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 66.7% P $8,000 P $6,700 P $13,100
Team Averages 0.317 0.315 0.155 30.5% 7.1% 17.5% 40.9%

Elite Plays – Colin Moran

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Baltimore
miamimlb Jose Urena baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.375 45.3% 4.5% 16.3% 50.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.331 27.5% 8.1% 23.0% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.300 42.3% 6.4% 23.7% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.354 36.5% 2.7% 21.6% 52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.6%
2018 14 3.84 4.59 19.8% 5.4% 50.8% 44.0% 14.8%
L14 2 3.70 5.73 17.4% 2.2% 45.9% 56.8% 8.1%

Urena has a higher ERA than he did last season, but his peripheral statistics have all improved. In 14 starts, he has a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a ground ball rate of 51%. His numbers have improved enough to where we don’t need to auto-fade him in every slate. Pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly American League ballpark is never ideal, but the matchup actually sets up well for Urena. He has held righties to a .300 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate this season and will likely face at least six of them tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Urena likely won’t make the final cut in my lineups, but it’s not as bad of a play as it looks at first glance.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 13 3.61 4.58 22.2% 5.1% 47.5% 32.6% 17.6%
L14 2 2.31 6.00 28.9% 0.0% 52.8% 24.3% 21.6%

Gausman may have a high ERA, but his advanced statistics suggest some serious regression. In 13 starts, he has a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 5%. His numbers are even better over his last two starts, which makes him one of the most appealing plays in tonight’s 15-game slate. The Marlins have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. In fact, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .318 with a 22% strikeout rate against righties.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Gausman is one of the top plays of the slate. He’s an elite option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards and get to use the DH in this series, but they are an easy fade in cash games. Kevin Gausman is trending in the right direction and his reverse-splits hurt the appeal of Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour, who are usually the top two targets from the Marlins when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. J.T. Realmuto makes the most sense here, as he owns a .395 xwOBA and a .225 ISO against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.339 0.420 0.160 37.9% 4.1% 21.0% 42.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.350 0.405 0.106 37.7% 7.4% 21.3% 47.8% 3B $3,500 3B/OF $4,200 3B $8,400
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.395 0.408 0.225 46.2% 7.0% 15.8% 44.4% C $3,600 C $4,300 C $8,100
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.414 0.343 0.248 42.2% 17.9% 21.4% 37.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.302 0.348 0.112 37.6% 5.7% 20.3% 51.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,300
6 JT Riddle LEFT 0.259 0.297 0.103 38.5% 2.4% 34.1% 52.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,700 SS $5,900
7 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.269 0.348 0.133 38.4% 4.2% 35.1% 51.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,800
8 JB Shuck LEFT 0.246 0.315 0.038 28.4% 8.0% 14.8% 53.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 CF $5,000
9 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.291 0.173 0.116 32.0% 4.7% 13.7% 56.5% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,600 2B $4,700
Team Averages 0.318 0.340 0.138 37.7% 6.8% 21.9% 48.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (DK), Derek Dietrich (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

Even though the Orioles are large favorites and playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they don’t have the best lineup construction to take advantage of a matchup against Jose Urena. As noted earlier, he has been tough on right-handed hitters, both this season and throughout his career. Meanwhile, he has allowed a .375 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Rather than taking a chance on Urena or on these Orioles’ lefties that I don’t trust, I will likely be avoiding the situation altogether.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.278 0.313 0.080 27.9% 11.8% 26.5% 48.3% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $2,600 2B $5,000
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.360 0.312 0.206 35.5% 3.0% 19.3% 39.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 0.324 0.269 33.3% 11.2% 17.5% 33.3% SS $4,200 SS $5,000 3B $10,400
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.219 0.207 0.173 22.9% 1.4% 24.8% 48.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,200 2B $6,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.343 0.294 0.149 40.3% 5.4% 21.5% 40.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 DH $7,200
6 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.339 0.036 0.230 30.4% 13.0% 27.0% 41.2% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,300 1B $6,400
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.376 0.305 0.135 35.0% 10.3% 24.3% 46.7% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,700
8 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.370 0.413 0.200 36.4% 9.0% 20.5% 43.6% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 3B $6,600
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.290 0.315 0.093 33.9% 8.0% 36.0% 47.5% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.329 0.280 0.171 32.8% 8.1% 24.2% 43.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jace Peterson, Manny Machado, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Nathan Eovaldi nyyankeesmlb Jonathan Loaisiga
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-210 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.378 45.5% 3.9% 11.5% 52.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.177 0.239 13.0% 3.1% 25.0% 43.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi
nathan-eovaldi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 3 3.90 3.94 19.0% 3.5% 47.7% 28.9% 22.2%
L14 2 3.96 6.30 18.0% 2.6% 46.7% 29.0% 25.8%

Eovaldi has a crack at revenge tonight, as he gets to face his former team in his former home ballpark. Unfortunately, this is one of the worst spots for revenge that I have seen in quite some time. Eovaldi has always had good velocity on his fastball, but he’s never been able to turn that into a high strikeout rate. If you are going to have success against the Yankees (especially in this ballpark), you better be able to rack up strikeouts. Without that weapon in his repertoire, he should be far off our radar.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Jonathan Loaisiga
jonathan-loaisiga-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Loaisiga looks a lot like lasagna, which is a quality meal when done right. This delicious Italian pasta will be making his major league debut tonight. He’s the club’s 12th ranked prospect and he’s basically come out of nowhere. In six Double-A starts this season, he posted a 3.29 FIP with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 3%. These pitching debuts always come with risk, but I like that Loaisiga has good control and he could benefit from the fact that the Rays haven’t seen him other than on tape.

Quick Breakdown: Loaisiga is not a cash game target, but he has some appeal in tournaments as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York and draw a boom or bust matchup against rookie Jonathan Loaisiga. This is not only his first major league start, but it’s his first above Double-A. The Rays don’t have enough firepower to warrant a full stack, but if I’m making five tournament lineups tonight, I’ll use Loaisiga on one and target a couple of Rays’ hitters on another. Getting exposure to both sides of a volatile matchup is never a bad strategy when building multiple lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.330 0.349 0.119 31.4% 3.9% 17.1% 47.5% 3B $2,700 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
2 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.428 0.352 0.417 66.7% 14.3% 21.4% 22.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
3 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.325 0.345 0.142 38.2% 6.6% 20.5% 51.8% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,300
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.365 0.413 0.208 35.3% 6.1% 21.3% 45.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.286 0.285 0.103 36.3% 5.8% 20.5% 50.0% 2B $2,400 2B $2,900 2B $5,900
6 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.158 0.286 0.000 16.7% 9.1% 36.4% 66.7% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,600
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.284 0.295 0.102 27.6% 8.5% 18.1% 43.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,600
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.293 0.253 0.133 32.0% 6.7% 24.0% 37.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.288 0.275 0.030 22.7% 13.2% 28.9% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,000
Team Averages 0.306 0.317 0.139 34.1% 8.2% 23.1% 46.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Jake Bauers, Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Most of the Yankees power bats from the right side of the plate, which is less than ideal in a matchup against Nathan Eovaldi. They are so talented that I still expect them to put up runs tonight, but there are a handful of offenses that I prefer as full stacks. On the season, Eovaldi has held righties to a .239 xwOBA, while allowing a .378 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to lefties. Based on the the matchup splits alone, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird are in the best spots.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.311 0.317 0.169 32.9% 12.6% 16.5% 48.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,100
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.417 0.363 0.320 47.0% 14.4% 29.2% 44.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $11,100
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.349 0.340 0.262 41.4% 10.3% 13.9% 33.3% SS $4,300 SS $4,600 SS $9,200
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.306 0.349 0.171 33.9% 8.5% 33.2% 53.4% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 RF $10,200
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.336 0.179 0.224 35.1% 10.2% 26.1% 41.4% C $3,400 C $4,000 C $7,400
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.346 0.365 0.156 40.0% 13.7% 20.5% 44.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.280 0.266 0.294 41.7% 3.7% 27.8% 44.4% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.391 0.469 0.234 37.3% 3.7% 18.0% 48.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,500
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.408 0.388 0.272 39.0% 5.6% 27.0% 29.6% 2B $3,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,200
Team Averages 0.349 0.337 0.234 38.7% 9.2% 23.6% 43.0%

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Washington Toronto
washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez torontomlb Aaron Sanchez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-120 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.210 0.227 25.6% 4.5% 31.3% 48.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.373 31.7% 18.1% 13.4% 52.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.324 32.1% 11.6% 21.5% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.375 33.6% 8.5% 21.5% 49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.41 2.96 22.7% 9.6% 45.8% 29.3% 21.9%
2018 13 4.01 2.65 23.6% 10.1% 51.0% 30.8% 17.1%
L14 2 3.65 6.10 26.1% 8.7% 40.0% 46.7% 20.0%

Gonzalez is a pitcher that I rarely target in DFS. His low ERA leads to an inflated price point, even though he’s not a pitcher that goes deep into games. He nibbles around the corners of the plate, which leads to long at-bats and a high walk rate. He rarely ends up pitching seven innings. Tonight he draws a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Even though there aren’t as many aces on the mound as we typically see in a 15-game slate, there are better matchups to exploit.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3%
2018 13 5.10 4.33 17.8% 12.9% 50.7% 32.7% 20.9%
L14 2 4.69 2.19 23.5% 13.7% 41.9% 37.5% 21.9%

Sanchez has shown some signs of life in his last two starts, but I don’t love the fact that his SIERA is significantly higher than his ERA during that stretch. He gives too many free base passes (13% walk rate) and he’s facing one of the most talented lineups in baseball. With Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton back in the fold, I want no part of pitchers facing the Nationals, especially in hitter-friendly ballparks like this one.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sanchez in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are near the top of my potential stacking list tonight. Even though Aaron Sanchez has a high ground ball rate, they are facing him in a hitter’s park and they get to utilize the DH in this series. Now that they are at full strength, there aren’t any easy outs in this lineup. Hitters from both sides of the plate are viable here, as Sanchez has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both lefties and righties this season. The difficult part is deciding which four (or five) batters you want to stack from the Nationals, as the one through six hitters are all viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.556 0.326 0.303 66.7% 7.9% 7.9% 33.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 CF $8,600
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.340 0.293 0.140 34.7% 10.1% 20.2% 53.2% SS $3,900 SS $4,300 IF/OF $8,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.431 0.316 0.315 47.3% 18.5% 21.2% 37.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,200 RF $10,300
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.358 0.328 0.183 33.3% 9.7% 14.2% 37.6% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.358 0.379 0.132 37.9% 15.6% 20.0% 41.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
6 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.328 0.212 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 2B $3,400 2B $4,100 2B $8,400
7 Matt Adams LEFT 0.412 0.293 0.333 45.8% 10.6% 21.1% 32.3% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,200
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.316 0.278 0.119 18.4% 10.3% 13.8% 48.6% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $3,000 2B $5,800
9 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.255 0.146 0.058 22.7% 10.1% 20.2% 45.5% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.373 0.286 0.176 34.1% 13.1% 18.2% 42.1%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

Gio Gonzalez is an above-average pitcher, but he typically takes on National League opponents in pitcher-friendly ballparks. This is a significantly tougher test than he is accustomed to. The Blue Jays will likely throw nine righties at Gonzalez tonight, who has allowed a .324 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate. Teoscar Hernandez (.403 xwOBA) and Kendrys Morales (.357 xwOBA) are both elite tournament plays that should garner very little ownership in a slate this size.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.403 0.327 0.333 34.0% 6.5% 24.7% 41.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 CF $8,300
2 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.348 0.274 0.247 32.5% 6.9% 10.8% 37.3% 3B $3,300 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.335 0.339 0.127 25.0% 12.8% 21.3% 51.7% 1B $3,000 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.357 0.462 0.115 42.5% 10.0% 23.3% 45.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 1B $5,600
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.279 0.258 0.179 36.4% 3.6% 16.7% 36.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.334 0.330 0.028 29.2% 17.8% 26.7% 54.2% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $5,800
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.306 0.302 0.054 18.5% 7.1% 26.2% 37.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.243 0.357 0.000 23.3% 7.3% 17.1% 40.0% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.360 0.306 0.226 34.6% 3.1% 15.6% 42.3% 2B $2,300 2B $2,800 2B $5,600
Team Averages 0.329 0.328 0.145 30.7% 8.3% 20.3% 42.8%

Elite Plays – Teoscar Hernandez (GPP), Kendrys Morales (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez (Cash), Kendrys Morales (Cash), Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-210 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.308 36.7% 8.2% 26.2% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.234 0.268 36.8% 3.5% 29.8% 44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.329 37.7% 11.5% 24.1% 52.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.294 38.8% 2.0% 25.5% 52.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 13 3.93 3.45 24.9% 10.2% 49.5% 37.3% 17.9%
L14 2 3.24 2.84 25.5% 8.5% 67.7% 48.4% 12.9%

Gibson has surprised many (including myself) this season with a 3.93 SIERA and a 25% strikeout rate this season. He doesn’t have the best control and he still gives up a lot of hard contact, but he’s no longer a pitcher that we write off immediately when we see his name on the schedule. Now, with that said, we can write him off tonight in a matchup against the Indians. Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .362 xwOBA, a 38% hard contact rate, and a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in both cash games and tournaments.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $13,600 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4%
2018 14 2.77 1.99 27.5% 2.7% 48.8% 37.9% 16.1%
L14 2 2.44 1.80 26.8% 0.0% 53.7% 46.3% 12.2%

The KLUBES takes the mound tonight and is the clear ace of the slate. In 14 starts this season, he owns a 2.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 3%. I always love pitchers that have a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate because they can rack up fantasy points and pitch deep into games. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Twins, but gets to face them at home where he has been dominant throughout his career.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is the top pitcher on the board and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are a full fade tonight, from their starting pitcher to their offense. They draw an awful matchup against Corey Kluber, who has an elite strikeout rate and elite control. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters .295 xwOBA. Crazy things happen every day, but I will not be targeting any Twins’ hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.314 0.294 0.184 37.9% 8.9% 18.3% 41.0% 2B $3,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,700
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.353 0.366 0.251 39.9% 7.3% 16.1% 29.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.387 0.485 0.331 42.9% 5.1% 23.2% 22.2% 3B $3,700 3B/SS $4,400 SS $8,100
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.363 0.381 0.185 39.1% 12.4% 18.3% 32.5% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 1B $5,700
5 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.422 0.088 42.3% 15.6% 12.6% 50.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,700
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.327 0.328 0.107 37.9% 13.0% 20.6% 32.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 LF $5,400
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.340 0.259 0.142 41.2% 12.9% 13.5% 40.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
8 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.303 0.303 0.138 40.0% 7.9% 28.1% 43.6% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
9 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.291 0.248 0.070 38.9% 7.9% 33.3% 42.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,900
Team Averages 0.344 0.333 0.166 40.0% 10.1% 20.4% 37.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Even though Kyle Gibson has improved this season, the Indians are still one of my favorite stacks of the slate. They have such a great combination of speed and power and if they get to Gibson early, they should be able to feast on the Twins’ bullpen. On the season, Gibson has allowed a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, each of the first five hitters in Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. To make them even more enticing, the Indians have a .451 wOBA against Gibson in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.404 0.363 0.260 40.0% 8.4% 20.5% 32.4% SS $4,900 SS $5,100 SS $10,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.425 0.417 0.228 45.3% 6.7% 9.6% 43.9% OF $4,500 OF $4,600 LF $9,300
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.410 0.415 0.345 32.9% 15.2% 12.3% 34.2% 3B $5,100 3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,700
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.389 0.486 0.282 37.6% 7.2% 25.6% 35.0% 1B $3,900 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.382 0.347 0.193 37.3% 10.2% 21.9% 37.6% 1B $3,600 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.346 0.290 0.093 37.5% 8.4% 19.3% 38.0% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 2B $6,700
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.303 0.318 0.195 39.2% 4.9% 32.8% 33.8% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.328 0.301 0.050 35.3% 8.9% 13.3% 30.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 RF $6,800
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.268 0.272 0.127 35.7% 5.9% 27.1% 39.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.362 0.357 0.197 37.9% 8.4% 20.3% 36.1%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious