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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-29 20:19:20

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Minnesota at Chicago Cubs – 5:05 PM ET

Minnesota Chicago Cubs
minnesotamlb Jose Berrios cubsmlb Mike Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.297 34.3% 85.5 25.4% 37.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.320 28.1% 86.1 20.5% 69.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.289 28.9% 85.8 28.4% 42.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.311 32.1% 86.4 13.9% 51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
jose-berrios-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.29 3.89 22.6% 7.8% 39.0% 27.9% 20.4%
2018 16 3.26 3.15 26.9% 4.9% 39.8% 31.7% 21.4%
L14 2 3.04 0.68 34.0% 9.4% 37.0% 41.4% 27.6%

We have a single early game on the schedule today. This is included in the all-day slate on FanDuel and in the showdown slate on DraftKings. Berrios is coming off of a tremendous two-game stretch where he posted a 3.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. Other than a few bad outings, he’s been solid all season and seems poised to break into the category of elites soon enough. Unfortunately, we have a wind game in Wrigley on our hands. With the wind blowing out to left at 15 MPH, the total for this game is set at 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is a risky play, even in the single game showdown slate.

Mike Montgomery
mike-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.46 3.38 18.5% 10.2% 57.8% 30.2% 20.7%
2018 6 4.24 3.39 16.1% 7.6% 57.1% 30.9% 23.4%
L14 2 4.71 3.75 21.2% 11.5% 35.3% 51.4% 2.9%

Montgomery isn’t as talented as Jose Berrios, but he may have the better chance of succeeding if he can keep the ball on the ground. The best way to avoid this wind is to strike batters out or induce ground balls. He’s still too risky to trust in any slate other than the showdown one on DraftKings and even there, it might be a better idea to load up on these two offenses. On the plus side, the Twins’ projected lineup has a .290 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 22% against lefties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is a borderline play in the showdown slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have struggled against southpaws all season, but a healthy wind blowing out to left field in Wrigley could help kickstart this offense. When the wind is blowing out in this park, it turns into home run central. I rarely rule out any hitters in these situations, but Mike Montgomery has a 69% ground ball rate against left-handed hitters. I would much rather load up on the righties in this lineup — Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Ehire Adrianza, and Mitch Garver.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.325 85.2 0.029 34.6% 17.8% 20.0% 57.7% 1B $2,700 N/A N/A
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.307 86.0 0.194 36.8% 2.1% 18.8% 37.3% OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.305 88.3 0.140 40.0% 9.4% 22.9% 40.0% 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.246 85.4 0.123 24.1% 9.6% 15.1% 42.6% 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.240 85.0 0.113 23.1% 10.0% 25.0% 33.3% OF $2,400 N/A N/A
6 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.247 81.8 0.143 24.2% 5.7% 30.2% 37.5% SS $2,400 N/A N/A
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.370 90.9 0.319 36.2% 9.9% 18.5% 36.2% OF $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.279 84.8 0.048 29.0% 8.7% 23.9% 38.7% C $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Jose Berrios RIGHT P $10,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.290 85.9 0.139 31.0% 9.2% 21.8% 40.4%

Elite Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are the preferred offense to target in this game and can actually be considered in the all-day slate with the wind blowing out to left field. They have the fourth highest implied run total of the 30 teams in action today. Jose Berrios is a very good pitcher, but he has a below-average ground ball rate. Given the wind direction, I slightly prefer the right-handed hitters in this lineup, but basically anyone that cracks the lineup is going to be worth a look.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.353 88.5 0.150 34.1% 15.0% 13.3% 46.5% OF $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.364 89.6 0.148 34.2% 8.2% 10.2% 39.9% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
3 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.351 90.0 0.283 38.8% 3.9% 27.6% 39.7% 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.384 90.0 0.197 33.3% 11.0% 9.7% 37.2% 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.306 87.5 0.160 29.7% 7.7% 18.9% 50.3% C $2,800 N/A N/A
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.375 89.1 0.283 40.9% 15.6% 25.4% 45.0% OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.349 91.3 0.216 44.9% 17.3% 36.3% 35.9% OF $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.288 85.8 0.074 32.6% 9.6% 22.7% 37.7% SS $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Mike Montgomery LEFT 0.176 68.7 0.000 20.0% 7.7% 53.8% 75.0% P $7,700 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.327 86.7 0.168 34.3% 10.7% 24.2% 45.2%

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.295 31.3% 87.9 38.5% 41.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.247 18.4% 76.2 24.2% 57.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.290 25.6% 87.4 23.3% 40.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.307 30.4% 85.3 17.3% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6%
2018 15 3.60 3.86 26.1% 7.4% 41.0% 26.4% 19.5%
L14 2 3.88 5.40 22.9% 6.3% 38.7% 27.3% 24.2%

Targeting fly-ball pitchers in Yankee Stadium is incredibly risky, but Rodriguez has the tools to succeed here. On the season, he owns a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a hard contact rate of 26%. Even though he has the talent to potentially pitch well tonight, these large slates are all about limiting downside. The Yankees could bat blind-folded and hit a few home runs at home against a southpaw. Rodriguez has too low of a floor to deserve consideration in a matchup against New York, whose projected lineup has a .360 xwOBA with a 45% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1%
2018 14 4.27 3.18 18.6% 6.1% 43.4% 28.5% 27.3%
L14 2 3.02 2.77 24.1% 3.5% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Sabathia continues to pitch well for the Yankees. While he doesn’t own a high strikeout rate (19%), he generates a lot of ground balls and soft contact. At this point in his career, he’s a better real-life pitcher than he is in daily fantasy. With that said, his matchup is slightly intriguing. Outside of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox have been awful against left-handed pitching. Their projected lineup as a whole has a 23% strikeout rate. I would have some interest in a smaller slate, but we should be able to find better plays tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia isn’t a terrible play given his track record against Boston, but he’s far from a core play tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox go from one hitter-friendly ballpark to another in Yankee Stadium. While that’s a positive, CC Sabathia has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. Outside of Mookie Betts (10-for-24 lifetime), the Red Sox have not fared well against Sabathia in the past. He has held this current roster to a .314 xwOBA with 42 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.500 92.3 0.417 40.7% 13.9% 11.1% 35.2% OF $5,200 OF $6,100 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.279 85.0 0.194 16.7% 8.6% 23.5% 44.4% OF $3,900 OF $5,100 LF $9,900
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.399 94.5 0.197 51.1% 6.6% 34.2% 44.4% OF $5,000 OF $5,700 RF $10,600
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.384 92.7 0.158 34.2% 13.6% 24.2% 29.3% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.299 89.0 0.190 41.0% 6.5% 30.6% 46.2% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.325 87.0 0.070 27.1% 7.7% 16.7% 50.0% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,500
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.273 88.5 0.145 28.6% 2.4% 23.5% 44.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.346 86.3 0.102 27.9% 3.9% 11.8% 46.5% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,600
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.279 87.9 0.070 27.8% 3.2% 33.9% 61.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.343 89.2 0.171 32.8% 7.4% 23.3% 44.6%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash), J.D. Martinez (Cash), Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees and Red Sox tend to score a lot of runs when pitted against one another, but the total (9.0 runs) seems a bit high. Both of these pitchers are capable of limiting damage. On the season, Eduardo Rodriguez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. The good news is that he’s a fly-ball pitcher and that the Yankees lineup is loaded with right-handed power — Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.425 91.6 0.277 49.0% 10.8% 20.3% 30.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 CF $8,500
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 94.2 0.211 45.5% 21.4% 32.7% 38.6% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $10,700
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.251 79.0 0.100 25.0% 8.0% 14.8% 47.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.505 97.8 0.468 64.3% 9.2% 26.4% 32.1% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $10,000
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.409 89.9 0.268 48.8% 9.7% 21.0% 32.6% 2B $3,800 2B $4,000 2B $7,700
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.341 90.9 0.282 33.9% 5.2% 16.9% 45.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.373 90.3 0.000 62.5% 27.3% 27.3% 50.0% 1B $2,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.305 89.9 0.222 40.9% 0.0% 18.5% 36.4% C $2,300 C $3,500 C $6,600
9 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.211 85.5 0.029 33.3% 2.9% 28.6% 41.7% 1B $2,100 1B/2B $3,100 2B $5,600
Team Averages 0.360 89.9 0.206 44.8% 10.5% 22.9% 39.4%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks (GPP), Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks (Cash), Aaron Judge (Cash), Miguel Andujar

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

LA Angels Baltimore
laangelsmlb Felix Pena baltimoremlb David Hess
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-140 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.473 0.440 50.0% 91.8 7.4% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.360 32.9% 87.9 14.6% 32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.239 42.9% 92.5 42.9% 35.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.360 34.9% 89.2 11.8% 36.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Pena
felix-pena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.36 5.24 23.9% 11.6% 34.7% 39.8% 22.5%
2018 2 3.53 5.40 25.5% 7.3% 44.4% 47.2% 16.7%
L14 2 3.51 4.00 28.6% 9.5% 44.0% 44.0% 20.0%

Pena is making his third start of the season. His advanced stats look better than his ERA (5.40), which suggests some positive regression, although we are still dealing with a small sample size. The fact that this game features a total of 10.0 runs should scare us off both pitchers, at least in a cash game setting. Pena is still a wildcard, but he does have some strikeout upside against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has a 27% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Pena is viable as an SP2 in large-field tournaments.

David Hess
david-hess-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 8 5.59 5.44 13.3% 9.4% 34.5% 33.8% 18.0%
L14 2 5.72 10.38 14.0% 11.6% 31.3% 34.4% 28.1%

Hess can be crossed off our list of potential targets tonight. He currently owns a 5.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a hard contact rate (33%) that is nearly as high as his ground ball rate. He’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he’s facing an Angels’ projected lineup that has a .331 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hess in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Even though the Angels have a right-handed heavy lineup, they have fared better against righties than they have against lefties this season. They see a ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. David Hess has allowed a .360 xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Mike Trout is arguably the top play on the board. He boasts a .450 xwOBA with a .310 ISO against righties. He also brings stolen base upside to the table. To complete the stack, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, and Luis Valbuena are viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.329 85.9 0.202 34.1% 8.4% 10.2% 39.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,300
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.450 92.4 0.310 46.5% 19.7% 19.4% 34.3% OF $5,100 OF $6,000 CF $11,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.392 92.3 0.229 46.7% 11.2% 26.8% 43.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $8,900
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.359 90.5 0.172 42.0% 4.8% 13.5% 39.5% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,700
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.289 89.5 0.151 40.2% 5.5% 33.2% 36.7% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.355 87.3 0.126 37.5% 5.9% 3.9% 48.9% SS $3,300 SS $3,800 SS $7,200
7 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.277 87.3 0.079 36.4% 5.2% 25.3% 52.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,700
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.270 83.8 0.119 29.7% 4.6% 23.7% 36.8% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Chris Young RIGHT 0.257 82.2 0.172 26.8% 10.7% 33.3% 32.5% OF $2,600 P $4,000 LF $6,800
Team Averages 0.331 87.9 0.173 37.8% 8.4% 21.0% 40.5%

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler (GPP), Justin Upton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler (Cash), Justin Upton (Cash), Albert Pujols, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have a boom or bust matchup against Felix Pena, who is only making his third career major league start. We are dealing with a small sample size, but he has allowed a 47% hard contact rate this season. He has also given up a .440 xwOBA to lefties, while holding righties to a .239 xwOBA. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on his splits, as I like the spot for Baltimore as a whole. Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and Trey Mancini all hit right-handed pitching well and you can include the two lefties (Colby Rasmus and Chris Davis) in your Orioles’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.276 87.6 0.108 35.0% 7.3% 41.5% 40.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 LF $7,700
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.352 89.1 0.194 33.7% 3.0% 18.0% 40.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.391 92.6 0.255 36.2% 11.1% 16.4% 33.9% SS $4,300 SS $5,000 3B $10,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.377 93.5 0.230 42.4% 6.6% 23.0% 40.0% OF $3,200 1B/OF $4,400 DH $8,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.263 85.6 0.061 30.9% 7.7% 37.6% 47.4% 1B $2,100 1B $3,000 IF/OF $5,400
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.372 91.2 0.152 34.1% 9.2% 24.8% 48.9% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.235 84.0 0.186 25.0% 2.8% 23.3% 48.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,700
8 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.240 84.9 0.041 22.6% 5.1% 26.9% 48.1% 3B $2,100 3B $3,300 SS $6,400
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.239 84.6 0.180 28.6% 1.6% 31.7% 36.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.305 88.1 0.156 32.1% 6.0% 27.0% 42.7%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Colby Rasmus (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Colby Rasmus (Cash), Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Philadelphia
washingtonmlb Erick Fedde philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-109 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.376 32.4% 90.1 14.0% 55.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.353 34.3% 89.0 24.7% 39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.388 0.364 38.9% 86.6 20.4% 51.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.263 28.6% 87.0 31.9% 46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Erick Fedde
erick-fedde-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 4.45 9.39 19.7% 10.5% 61.7% 34.6% 15.4%
2018 4 4.06 5.32 17.4% 6.5% 53.6% 35.7% 15.7%
L14 2 4.35 4.76 14.6% 8.3% 55.6% 27.0% 13.5%

Fedde has a high ground ball rate (54%), but that’s about all he offers in terms of his statistics. His strikeout rate (17%) is well below the major league average and he has given up a hard contact rate of 36%. While there is some strikeout upside in a matchup against the Phillies, I would be more inclined to take a shot on Fedde if this game was being played in Washington instead of the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fedde in both cash games and tournaments.

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.32 6.02 24.0% 9.8% 43.8% 35.5% 15.9%
2018 16 3.24 4.06 28.6% 6.8% 43.1% 31.3% 14.3%
L14 2 2.16 2.92 38.5% 5.8% 51.7% 44.8% 10.3%

Pivetta has been one of my favorite pitchers to target all season. It took the masses quite some time to realize that his numbers weren’t just a flash in the pan and he is routinely underpriced across the industry. In 16 starts, he has a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. While the Nationals’ offense is talented, they have been underperforming recently. Pivetta doesn’t have a great track against Washington, but I’m willing to bet on his talent.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is an elite tournament play on both single and multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals see a favorable ballpark boost playing in Philadelphia, but draw a difficult matchup against Nick Pivetta. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, he has held righties to a .263 xwOBA. His biggest weakness has been against lefties, allowing a .353 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate. This brings Adam Eaton (.409 xwOBA), Bryce Harper (.405 xwOBA), and Juan Soto (.373 xwOBA) into play, as they all hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.409 88.9 0.164 50.0% 5.9% 16.2% 44.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,300
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.405 91.2 0.291 44.4% 17.9% 22.3% 35.6% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 RF $8,900
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.382 90.5 0.200 36.3% 9.5% 15.1% 35.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,300 3B $8,600
4 Juan Soto LEFT 0.373 88.7 0.173 36.8% 16.7% 20.0% 43.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.278 88.1 0.000 15.2% 5.1% 10.3% 33.3% 1B $2,700 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
6 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.332 88.8 0.145 33.3% 9.8% 21.2% 53.2% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,300
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.304 80.7 0.110 18.6% 8.2% 15.2% 44.1% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,000 2B $5,600
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.248 82.4 0.054 21.7% 8.8% 22.4% 45.1% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,000
9 Erick Fedde RIGHT 0.214 69.9 0.000 50.0% 16.7% 50.0% 100.0% P $5,900 P $5,500 P $10,900
Team Averages 0.327 85.5 0.126 34.0% 11.0% 21.4% 48.3%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton (GPP), Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton (Cash), Bryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are facing an inexperienced pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. They are a sneaky offense to target in tournaments, although a 54% ground ball rate from Erick Fedde is less than ideal. The good news is that he has a low strikeout rate and still gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .376 xwOBA to lefties and a .364 xwOBA to righties. Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams are all viable GPP plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.331 83.7 0.146 27.3% 14.4% 23.0% 45.2% 2B $3,400 2B $4,700 2B $9,100
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.387 89.3 0.245 35.4% 12.7% 28.5% 27.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,900 IF/OF $8,700
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.324 87.1 0.193 27.7% 7.7% 20.6% 44.2% OF $3,800 OF $5,300 IF/OF $9,600
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.394 88.9 0.227 36.7% 20.5% 13.4% 36.3% 1B $3,400 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.370 89.1 0.224 31.7% 8.2% 24.5% 47.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.311 86.2 0.106 26.8% 6.2% 22.1% 39.0% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $5,400
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.308 88.5 0.122 37.5% 10.8% 37.6% 37.5% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,500
8 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.302 88.5 0.163 22.7% 4.7% 17.2% 57.6% 3B $2,600 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.204 83.7 0.056 20.0% 5.0% 45.0% 66.7% P $8,600 P $9,500 P $18,900
Team Averages 0.326 87.2 0.165 29.5% 10.0% 25.8% 44.6%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP), Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Detroit Toronto
detroitmlb Francisco Liriano torontomlb Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-175 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.211 0.326 20.0% 87.6 25.9% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.404 45.4% 92.5 16.4% 59.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.402 34.8% 88.3 17.0% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.335 45.5% 90.3 22.2% 67.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.09 5.66 19.4% 12.1% 44.9% 29.6% 16.8%
2018 11 5.05 3.94 19.1% 12.7% 45.6% 31.8% 20.0%
L14 1 5.64 4.50 16.7% 16.7% 50.0% 50.0% 25.0%

Liriano’s numbers are nearly identical from a season ago with the lone exception being his ERA. He’s not a pitcher that we should trust in DFS, as he owns a 13% walk rate and a below-average strikeout rate. He has a crack at revenge tonight, although I’ll take my chances with the Blue Jays in this spot. They are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and their projected lineup has a .333 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4%
2018 8 4.03 6.80 18.8% 9.6% 62.6% 45.4% 17.7%
L14 1 2.06 0.00 23.8% 4.8% 80.0% 33.3% 20.0%

Stroman pitched well in his first start back from injury. He didn’t allow a single run and struck out five batters in five innings of work. He only threw 81 pitches in that start, but that number should climb above 90 tonight against the Tigers. Throughout his career, he has been tough on right-handed hitters (68% ground ball rate this season) and he gets to face a right-handed heavy lineup tonight. He’s far from a sure bet, but I’ll have some shares of Stroman in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is viable as an SP2 in GPPs, especially on DraftKings ($6,300).

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are facing a ground-ball pitcher in Marcus Stroman. While he doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, he rarely gives up extra-base hits, which limits the appeal of this offense as a whole. As mentioned above, he has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career. Leonys Martin is really the only Tigers’ hitter on my radar tonight. He bats from the left side and owns a .411 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.411 89.2 0.178 43.0% 10.5% 20.6% 36.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.316 87.7 0.193 36.0% 12.7% 23.5% 37.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,500
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.379 90.3 0.204 49.2% 5.3% 22.9% 31.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.359 88.8 0.080 42.6% 8.2% 10.1% 38.5% C $2,500 1B $2,900 1B $5,400
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.330 88.9 0.215 35.1% 9.8% 31.7% 41.5% OF $2,900 2B/OF $3,500 1B $6,500
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.286 86.4 0.145 42.3% 3.2% 31.0% 41.6% C $2,500 1B/C $3,200 1B $6,400
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.272 88.8 0.060 36.2% 5.6% 21.7% 39.2% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,400
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.278 84.5 0.095 25.0% 3.8% 11.4% 45.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.296 87.9 0.158 30.0% 4.1% 27.9% 41.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.325 88.1 0.148 37.7% 7.0% 22.3% 39.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays hit the ball well at home and are facing a very hittable southpaw in Francisco Liriano. On the season, Liriano has allowed a .402 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Toronto will likely throw nine righties at Liriano, which certainly brings a full stack into play in tournaments. Teoscar Hernandez (.381 xwOBA), Justin Smoak (.333 xwOBA), Yangervis Solarte (.351 xwOBA), and Kendrys Morales (.379 xwOBA) all hit left-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.381 91.9 0.305 32.2% 7.9% 25.8% 42.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 LF $8,600
2 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.333 87.8 0.132 26.5% 11.3% 22.6% 50.0% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,500
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.351 88.4 0.255 32.7% 5.9% 10.9% 36.7% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,000 3B $7,500
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.379 95.0 0.125 45.3% 10.7% 18.7% 49.1% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.271 84.1 0.163 34.2% 3.1% 15.3% 38.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.349 91.7 0.024 35.7% 17.6% 25.5% 53.6% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,500
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.320 91.8 0.122 24.3% 5.6% 24.1% 40.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.251 87.0 0.020 27.5% 5.7% 17.0% 40.0% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $5,700
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.361 89.2 0.268 30.6% 2.4% 11.9% 50.0% 2B $2,300 2B $3,400 2B $6,300
Team Averages 0.333 89.7 0.157 32.1% 7.8% 19.1% 44.5%

Elite Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious