MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-10 02:42:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Colorado at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Chicago Cubs
			German Marquez							Mike Montgomery
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-143							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.293	30.8%	8.1%	20.1%	51.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.253	0.315	25.8%	8.4%	21.2%	56.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	0.336	38.0%	6.0%	19.3%	43.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.322	26.4%	11.2%	20.9%	59.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
German Marquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	3	3.97	5.23	15.3%	6.1%	54.9%	29.7%	13.5%
	2017	8	4.13	4.53	21.9%	7.5%	42.9%	36.9%	14.2%

First off, happy Friday. We’ve made it through another week, so kick back, put your feet up, and get your Grind Down on. We have a single day game on the schedule, so if you are only playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game. Marquez is best known for his comparisons to Clayton Kershaw (which were hilarious). In eight starts this season, he has a mediocre 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. The Cubs have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they are playing at home with a helping wind blowing out to right field.

Quick Breakdown: If you are playing in the all-day slate, you aren’t doing it for the purpose of using Marquez (at least you shouldn’t be).

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	7	3.57	2.52	22.2%	9.2%	58.4%	25.6%	18.3%
	2017	0	4.57	2.21	17.6%	13.5%	59.2%	28.0%	26.0%

Montgomery is making his first start of the season, after making 18 appearances out of the bullpen. He has yet to throw more than 51 pitches in any outing this season, so we shouldn’t expect a full complement of pitches here. He comes into the game as a favorite, but that has more to do with the Cubs playing at home than anything else. Given the limited ceiling, Montgomery is an easy fade, even at a cheap price point on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Mike Montgomery may have a 2.21 ERA, but all of his work has come out of the bullpen. He also has a 4.57 SIERA, which suggests some serious regression moving forward. We can give a look to the right-handed hitters in this lineup, particularly DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story. I quickly wanted to highlight LeMahieu’s stats against lefties. He is known as a singles and doubles hitter, but he has a .391 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.372	0.306	0.159	27.2%	4.8%	14.5%	48.0%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.397	0.391	0.174	36.5%	11.1%	13.0%	46.8%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.411	0.367	0.298	36.8%	12.1%	16.8%	29.7%	3B	$4,200	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.297	0.287	0.112	30.0%	11.8%	24.5%	51.5%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.359	0.328	0.160	30.7%	5.3%	19.6%	50.7%	OF	$3,500	1B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.309	0.298	0.185	39.7%	2.8%	26.3%	54.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.402	0.369	0.329	54.4%	12.1%	33.5%	22.0%	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.300	0.235	0.063	16.7%	7.0%	22.5%	67.4%	C	$2,700	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.000	0.049	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The sample size is still fairly small (11 starts), but German Marquez has shown some reverse-splits early in his career. He has held lefties to a .293 xwOBA, while allowing a .336 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Kris Bryant bats from the right side and mashes right-handed pitching to the tune of a .241 ISO and a 37% hard contact rate. Javier Baez is also interesting as a tournament play. We should rule out the lefties in this lineup, as Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist all have good numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.370	0.355	0.311	33.3%	12.7%	31.0%	46.2%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.376	0.352	0.241	36.9%	9.9%	22.3%	30.9%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.387	0.380	0.249	36.7%	12.4%	15.5%	37.0%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.351	0.369	0.176	33.5%	15.6%	11.7%	46.6%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.296	0.314	0.115	27.1%	8.3%	13.4%	46.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.302	0.270	0.161	28.6%	1.6%	25.7%	45.5%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.317	0.308	0.165	32.2%	13.7%	21.6%	45.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.068	0.105	0.000	42.9%	0.0%	50.0%	80.0%	P	$5,500	P	$5,300	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.298	0.354	0.222	36.5%	12.0%	29.5%	42.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Pittsburgh
			Vance Worley							Tyler Glasnow
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-127							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.307	34.3%	10.8%	16.7%	46.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.419	0.348	29.7%	13.9%	20.8%	45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.324	34.3%	7.7%	14.0%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.355	0.327	31.4%	10.2%	21.0%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vance Worley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$7,800
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2016	4	4.79	3.53	15.3%	9.6%	48.1%	31.6%	15.2%
	2017	3	4.74	6.59	15.0%	6.7%	44.4%	50.0%	8.7%

Worley is a pitcher that I love to target in DFS. Errr, I mean he’s a pitcher that I love to target hitters against. He is a low strikeout pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. He actually used to play for the Pirates, but I’m not sure the revenge narrative is enough to overcome a lack of talent.

Quick Breakdown: Worley is an easy fade in all contests.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Glasnow
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	4	4.46	4.24	22.9%	12.4%	47.6%	27.7%	21.5%
	2017	11	4.90	6.97	20.1%	11.9%	44.4%	31.7%	20.1%

After Gerrit Cole was shelled by the Marlins last night, anyone even remotely considering Glasnow is going to back off of him. I’m not necessarily on #TeamGlasnow, but the kid has a lot of talent. He just hasn’t been able to throw a strike or hold runners at first base. Fortunately, he is pitching at home against a Marlins’ team with a low walk rate. I was hoping Glasnow would get an umpire with a friendly strike zone, but it looks like Sam Holbrook has a slightly negative rating for pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: I almost had interest in Glasnow here, but there are too many red flags right now.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins are a perfect offense to target in slates like last night that only feature six to eight games. They typically don’t have 10+ run scoring potential, but they have a decent mix of speed and power. In 14 game slate, they are far less appealing because we have more matchups to choose from. I will not be stacking the Marlins here, but I do have interest in Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich. Glasnow has allowed a .348 xwOBA to lefties and he’s already given up 21 stolen bases in his first 15 career starts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.301	0.244	0.077	18.8%	5.7%	15.5%	57.5%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.336	0.336	0.224	37.3%	9.6%	28.4%	40.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.372	0.385	0.192	39.7%	12.2%	19.4%	54.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.339	0.335	0.189	36.3%	7.6%	19.9%	46.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,800
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.337	0.308	0.119	30.5%	5.4%	16.8%	50.2%	C	$3,200	C	$3,900	C	$7,600
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.335	0.336	0.148	29.7%	7.9%	19.6%	37.2%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,600
7	Tyler Moore	RIGHT	0.325	0.317	0.281	39.1%	2.9%	29.4%	39.1%	OF	$2,200	1B/OF	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,400
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.313	0.317	0.188	44.8%	3.4%	20.5%	44.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
9	Vance Worley	RIGHT	0.293	0.277	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	P	$5,600	P	$4,000	P	$7,800

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the fifth highest implied run total in the slate and I don’t expect many people to notice. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and who wants to target the Pirates when we can load up on the Red Sox, Indians, and Tigers? It’s rare that we see low ownership on a team with such a high implied run total, but I fully expect that to be the case tonight. Pittsburgh draws a terrific matchup against Vance Worley, who has a 15% walk rate and a 34%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. Gregory Polanco is the one hitter that I’d look at as a one-off, but I certainly have some appeal in a Pirates’ stack at sub-5% ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.334	0.339	0.136	32.7%	9.1%	14.4%	45.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.307	0.283	0.108	28.7%	3.9%	14.7%	42.4%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,700	2B	$9,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.332	0.344	0.191	33.5%	9.2%	16.6%	39.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.319	0.323	0.138	32.5%	8.7%	27.0%	58.3%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
5	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.349	0.186	32.7%	12.4%	17.8%	51.0%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.312	0.331	0.155	35.1%	9.4%	21.6%	37.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,200
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.304	0.298	0.111	24.9%	8.3%	14.5%	49.8%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
8	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.367	0.305	0.227	38.9%	12.0%	16.0%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	Tyler Glasnow	RIGHT	0.349	0.251	0.000	18.2%	17.4%	34.8%	80.0%	P	$6,900	P	$5,200	P	$10,200

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Washington
			Andrew Cashner							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.378	37.1%	12.1%	16.1%	38.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.321	28.1%	10.1%	18.5%	40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.325	30.5%	9.1%	16.7%	56.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.276	0.297	21.9%	6.6%	21.5%	54.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2016	27	4.72	5.25	19.1%	10.2%	46.5%	35.8%	12.5%
	2017	10	5.90	3.39	10.2%	11.4%	50.0%	29.3%	18.9%

As long as the Rangers continue to start Cashner, I will roll out a stack of the opposing offense and that’s a promise. I’m a man of my word, so you will see at least one of my lineups with a Nationals’ stack tonight. Cashner has more walks than strikeouts this season. If the Nationals can connect on a couple of long balls, they could really hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner’s name is fitting because we are going to make a lot of it stacking against him.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	12	4.34	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	45.5%	26.3%	15.2%

Roark has decent numbers across the board. He has a mediocre SIERA, an average strikeout rate, and a slightly above-average ground ball rate. If you want to play him tonight against the Rangers at home, I’m not going to talk you out of him. He is a perfectly fine play against an American League offense that will be losing its DH and playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I tend to value upside a little more when it comes to pitchers, so I will be underweight on Roark compared to the field.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is a perfectly fine play tonight, but he’s not cheap and has a somewhat limited ceiling.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are large underdogs tonight against Tanner Roark. As mentioned above, they see a negative ballpark shift and they won’t get to use the DH in this series. As a whole, we can downgrade their offense before even considering the matchup. Roark isn’t a pitcher that I target often in DFS, but I don’t go out of my way to target hitters against him either. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.324	0.375	0.141	40.9%	12.9%	21.8%	48.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
2	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.341	0.321	0.141	27.4%	7.7%	13.5%	46.7%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,300
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.344	0.337	0.190	30.5%	7.9%	18.6%	44.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.350	0.334	0.174	31.1%	7.4%	14.8%	42.7%	C	$2,700	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.325	0.298	0.234	34.2%	3.2%	21.9%	39.7%	2B	$3,300	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,700
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.324	0.303	0.289	41.4%	12.5%	41.1%	24.1%	1B	$3,700	3B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
7	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.298	0.273	0.137	31.6%	9.4%	34.3%	51.7%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800
8	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.290	0.241	0.094	21.3%	7.3%	27.0%	54.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
9	Andrew Cashner	RIGHT	0.202	0.147	0.000	19.1%	8.6%	31.4%	72.7%	P	$6,500	P	$4,500	P	$9,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals are one of my favorite stacks in the slate if you couldn’t tell from my breakdown of Andrew Cashner. When a pitcher walks more batters than he strikes out, sign me up. Cashner doesn’t fare particularly well against righties, but the best way to attack him is with left-handed hitters. In the last two years, he has allowed a massive .378 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to lefties. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are the elite plays of the elite plays if that makes any sense. Stack the Nationals and watch the magic happen. Regulators, mount up!

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.385	0.333	0.231	31.4%	4.6%	18.3%	45.6%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,200
2	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.285	0.237	0.139	29.3%	4.8%	26.2%	44.6%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	RF	$6,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.381	0.394	0.244	35.1%	18.7%	16.0%	40.0%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.328	0.335	0.192	35.5%	5.7%	23.1%	45.2%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,400
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.413	0.398	0.248	38.2%	6.5%	9.0%	35.4%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.344	0.346	0.192	34.8%	9.5%	17.7%	37.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.308	0.320	0.164	33.1%	6.7%	18.1%	36.6%	C	$2,700	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.286	0.273	0.161	32.0%	5.7%	31.4%	42.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.180	0.175	0.015	9.1%	6.3%	25.0%	58.1%	P	$8,600	P	$8,200	P	$15,900

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN

Oakland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Tampa Bay
			Andrew Triggs							Alex Cobb
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.309	27.6%	6.8%	20.9%	49.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.365	35.4%	9.1%	15.2%	41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.297	25.1%	5.4%	20.4%	51.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.313	35.6%	4.9%	17.0%	52.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Triggs
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2016	6	3.29	4.31	23.1%	5.5%	50.9%	27.0%	19.2%
	2017	11	4.29	3.36	18.4%	6.5%	49.7%	25.5%	15.1%

Triggs only has a single red box in his pitching table above, which is a good sign. He’s been serviceable for the A’s this season, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18%. He has good command and an above-average ground ball rate, which has led to a very low hard contact rate of 25.5%. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Rays, who hit right-handed pitching well, but also strikeout at a high rate. At $5,700 on DraftKings, we should at least have a little interest in Triggs.

Quick Breakdown: There are better pitching options in the slate, but Triggs is viable as an SP2 in tournaments on DraftKings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	12	4.61	4.52	16.4%	6.9%	45.6%	37.5%	13.3%

Cobb continues to work his way back after having Tommy John surgery. He has yet to recover his strikeout upside, which is the most important part of a pitcher’s game when it comes to DFS. In 12 starts this season, he has a 16% strikeout rate, which is markedly lower than the league average. He does draw a strikeout-friendly matchup against the A’s, but I have more interest in Andrew Triggs than I do in Cobb and he’s considerably cheaper across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Until the strikeout rate comes up, we should continue to avoid Cobb in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The two biggest issues for Alex Cobb have been a lack of strikeouts and allowing too much hard contact. Both of those bode well for the A’s. Their high strikeout rate as a team should come down in this matchup and this is a lineup full of fly-ball hitters with high hard contact rates. Cobb allows hard contact to both sides of the plate, but has really struggled with lefties, allowing a .365 xwOBA. The A’s are sneaky tonight as a mini-stack and you can look at a few of their hitters for one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.293	0.264	0.135	26.0%	6.1%	19.7%	47.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.348	0.370	0.216	36.8%	18.1%	22.7%	41.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.324	0.324	0.131	32.3%	8.2%	16.6%	37.2%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.349	0.369	0.290	40.6%	7.1%	28.7%	42.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.337	0.371	0.173	35.7%	9.9%	16.0%	39.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,700
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.336	0.332	0.206	33.1%	4.3%	24.5%	40.2%	1B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,400	3B	$8,400
7	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.310	0.318	0.159	27.1%	7.1%	15.7%	30.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
8	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.289	0.311	0.151	32.2%	5.6%	21.2%	44.6%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,600	3B	$5,100
9	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.333	0.373	0.289	35.2%	7.1%	27.1%	38.9%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a fairly high implied run total, but I’m not very high on their matchup against Andrew Triggs. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate. The left-handed power bats of Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, and Colby Rasmus are all in play as one-off targets, but I won’t be stacking the Rays in a 14 game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.356	0.322	0.274	33.0%	6.1%	21.9%	34.6%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,300
2	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.340	0.317	0.196	31.3%	9.8%	31.4%	41.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.352	0.352	0.238	36.2%	6.3%	19.8%	35.1%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.336	0.364	0.231	38.8%	11.0%	22.7%	40.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
5	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.313	0.310	0.196	37.1%	9.8%	30.1%	37.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,400
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.312	0.299	0.198	44.6%	4.3%	32.0%	42.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
7	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.285	0.271	0.108	30.8%	10.6%	27.1%	46.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900	SS	$4,800
8	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.243	0.269	0.137	31.4%	7.0%	31.6%	33.6%	C	$2,500	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.289	0.247	0.173	23.3%	4.7%	24.6%	51.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Boston
			Jordan Zimmermann							Brian Johnson
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-131							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.343	0.341	34.6%	6.0%	15.0%	38.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.160	0.420	37.5%	0.0%	27.3%	25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.350	29.3%	6.4%	14.0%	38.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.366	34.4%	6.5%	23.9%	34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$4,200	Salary:		$8,400
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2016	18	4.81	4.87	14.7%	5.8%	43.1%	27.3%	18.5%
	2017	11	5.26	5.98	14.2%	6.9%	30.5%	39.3%	14.5%

We have some terrible pitchers taking the mound tonight, which makes this a great slate to play multiple lineups. I want exposure to quite a few different offenses, one of which is the Red Sox. Zimmermann is statistically one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He has a low strikeout rate, a low ground ball rate, and a 39% hard contact rate. Fenway Park is the exact opposite type of ballpark that he needs to succeed in.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann could easily end up with negative fantasy points tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brian Johnson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30

	2017	2	3.74	2.57	24.6%	5.3%	32.5%	35.0%	25.0%

Johnson is making his third start of the season tonight. He has shown decent strikeout potential in the minor leagues, but I’m not sure he can sustain a 25% strikeout rate in the majors. He is a fly-ball pitcher that relies on inducing soft contact. The Tigers’ offense may be a lot of things, but they aren’t short in the hard contact department. Six of their projected starters have a 37%+ hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. An over/under of 10.5 runs should scare you off of both pitchers in this game.

Quick Breakdown: We need a larger sample size on Johnson before using him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The whole world is going to be on the Red Sox offense tonight, which will naturally lower the ownership of their opponent. I will have stacks on both sides of this game and I don’t mind a complete game stack. As mentioned above, Brian Johnson is a fly-ball pitcher and the Tigers get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Tigers mash left-handed pitching and should be under-owned, which sounds like a perfect recipe for tournament success. The one through seven batters are all viable here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.381	0.330	0.230	36.9%	9.8%	16.4%	26.8%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.278	0.353	0.203	41.4%	6.4%	25.7%	31.9%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.392	0.459	0.197	44.4%	15.6%	20.3%	39.3%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.345	0.318	0.148	33.3%	7.8%	14.6%	41.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.415	0.436	0.295	48.5%	8.8%	21.1%	39.8%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,500
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.324	0.348	0.190	38.5%	9.1%	27.4%	37.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200	LF	$10,200
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.379	0.399	0.311	49.0%	9.7%	29.7%	32.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.261	0.267	0.044	30.9%	8.0%	18.7%	57.4%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.309	0.304	0.143	30.3%	5.6%	7.3%	38.1%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox should end up being the highest owned stack in the slate. They draw a perfect matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who has a high fly ball rate, a high hard contact rate, and a low strikeout rate. Red Sox chalk never turns out the way we hope it will, but I’ll be eating some of it tonight. Over the last two seasons, Zimmermann has allowed a .341+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The one through seven hitters are all in play tonight and we can stack the Red Sox in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.376	0.334	0.203	34.0%	8.1%	10.8%	42.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.353	0.328	0.127	32.6%	8.0%	9.7%	50.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,800
3	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.351	0.332	0.198	36.7%	8.7%	15.3%	35.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,300
4	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.346	0.295	0.142	29.5%	7.4%	16.7%	47.7%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.316	0.359	0.194	38.7%	8.8%	23.0%	39.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.345	0.344	0.184	37.3%	9.6%	19.7%	48.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.355	0.360	0.235	37.8%	11.1%	21.6%	45.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.271	0.255	0.076	29.8%	3.4%	22.8%	57.6%	C	$2,600	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Deven Marrero	RIGHT	0.138	0.179	0.016	26.2%	5.9%	32.4%	65.0%	SS	$2,000	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,800

MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 9th

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Stackability Rating System:

Colorado at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN

Oakland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – GREEN

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