MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-06 03:48:50

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees						Chicago Cubs
			Michael Pineda						Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-115						6.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	34.7%	8.4%	29.4%	44.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.275	25.7%	6.2%	22.0%	47.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	30.3%	5.0%	26.9%	47.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	28.1%	6.8%	22.6%	49.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Pineda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	32	3.40	4.82	27.4%	7.0%	45.8%	32.7%	17.2%
	2017	5	2.42	3.14	32.2%	3.5%	47.9%	28.4%	13.5%

We have one day game on the schedule and another that starts at 6:40 ET. FanDuel and DraftKings both have all day slates that you can play, but if you are only doing the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the Brewers/Pirates game. Happy Friday to everyone and also happy Cinco de Mayo.

Pineda is off to a great start this season. All of the Pineda truthers from a year ago can finally rejoice. He has always had the peripherals and the high strikeout rate, he has just been incredibly unlucky in the last two years. In five starts in 2016, he has a 2.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 3.5%. Those numbers nearly rival any pitcher in baseball. Pineda is also inducing a higher ground ball rate and a lower hard contact rate, which are both promising. His matchup against the Cubs is less than ideal, but the wind is blowing in from left field at close to 20 MPH.

Quick Breakdown: It’s always risky targeting a pitcher against the Cubs, but Pineda is the top option in this two-game early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$10,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	3.70	2.13	22.8%	5.9%	48.4%	25.8%	25.1%
	2017	5	4.57	4.18	19.3%	10.5%	49.4%	35.0%	25.0%

Hendricks has never had a high velocity on his fastball. He relies on pinpoint control to get ahead in the count and then makes hitters swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. The issue so far this season has been his command. He has walked over 10% of the batters that he has faced. When he is unable to get into 0-2 and 1-2 counts, he can’t make batters swing and miss nearly as often, which helps explain the decline in his strikeout rate. He does benefit with the wind blowing in from left field, but the Yankees’ offense has been on a tear over the last two weeks.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Hendricks over the two pitchers in the Giants/Reds game, but would only use him on two-pitcher sites in the early-only slate.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

There is still plenty of time to turn things around, but Kyle Hendricks has been a completely different pitcher in 2016. His SIERA, walk rate, and hard contact rate are all up, while his strikeout rate is down. These all bode well for a red-hot Yankees’ offense. The main issue here is the wind blowing in from left at 20 MPH. The Yankees’ implied run total is one of the lowest on the entire schedule today. The one through six hitters in this lineup are all viable GPP options, but the other early game should provide more offensive production.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.343	0.128	27.4%	13.2%	16.9%	49.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100
2	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.426	0.329	40.9%	8.6%	22.0%	51.2%	C	$3,100	C	$4,700
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.328	0.169	30.3%	3.8%	19.2%	50.0%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,000
4	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.385	0.336	47.2%	9.4%	34.4%	39.3%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,800
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.302	0.174	24.7%	3.5%	16.1%	41.1%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,600
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.335	0.168	31.5%	11.5%	25.8%	42.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,700
7	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.338	0.253	40.1%	11.1%	33.6%	29.0%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,800
8	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.329	0.164	23.6%	12.0%	17.1%	45.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
9	Michael Pineda	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$8,500	P	$10,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, but if you look at their lineup below, they really only have four batters that hit right-handed pitching well (at least since the start of last season). Michael Pineda has an elite strikeout rate, he is limiting the hard contact against him, and we have the issue with the wind blowing in from left field. There are a few viable tournament options here, but again, the Giants/Reds game should provide more fantasy points from an offensive standpoint.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.275	0.145	29.6%	11.5%	30.2%	45.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,900
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.375	0.227	37.7%	10.1%	23.0%	30.6%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,400
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.395	0.262	37.9%	11.6%	16.8%	35.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,500
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.354	0.178	33.0%	15.8%	11.5%	46.8%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,400
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.302	0.149	27.5%	7.6%	21.2%	41.7%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,000
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.299	0.108	27.1%	8.7%	13.8%	46.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.339	0.189	31.9%	10.7%	27.6%	52.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,700
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.158	0.000	6.9%	0.0%	45.5%	59.1%	P	$8,200	P	$10,000
9	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.319	0.109	31.0%	5.4%	21.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco						Cincinnati
			Matt Cain						Bronson Arroyo
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-115						9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.372	25.5%	8.6%	17.2%	40.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	29.7%	8.2%	16.3%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.329	34.1%	7.6%	19.4%	37.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.422	32.6%	8.2%	16.4%	34.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Cain
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	17	4.67	5.64	18.1%	8.1%	37.3%	31.4%	21.6%
	2017	5	4.36	2.30	19.5%	8.0%	43.2%	26.8%	15.9%

Cain may have a 2.30 ERA on the season, but his peripherals are similar to where they were a year ago. His first five starts have been aided by a .253 BABIP and a 90% left on base percentage. He comes into this game as a small underdog against the Reds in what should be a high-scoring affair. Great American Ballpark is one of the best in baseball when it comes to home runs allowed and Cain doesn’t have a high ground ball rate to neutralize the ballpark factors in Cincinnati. If you are playing in this two-game slate, I would target a pitcher from the first game and load up on both offenses from this game.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t be fooled by Cain’s low ERA to start the season. His BABIP and LOB% are unsustainable.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Bronson Arroyo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	5	4.85	7.20	16.4%	8.2%	37.0%	31.3%	13.3%

Arroyo has pitched about as well as we could have guessed in his first five starts of the season. He owns a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16%. He is one of my favorite pitchers to target because he has an 85 MPH fastball and is a fly-ball pitcher. He doesn’t have the highest hard contact rate, but when you aren’t striking hitters out, offenses are going to string together hits and score runs. He is an easy fade against the Giants in a game that I expect to shootout.

Quick Breakdown: Arroyo has a strikeout rate of only 16% and that’s his highest mark in the big leagues since 2008.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Great American and they draw an exploitable matchup against Bronson Arroyo, who has allowed a career .354 wOBA to left-handed hitters. I’m not saying that we have to avoid the righties in this lineup, but Joe Panik and Brandon Belt are both elite plays at their respective positions, even in the all-day slate. I want as much exposure to these two offenses as possible, so we can complete the Giants’ stack with Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, and Christian Arroyo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.321	0.164	26.5%	10.2%	7.0%	45.3%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,200
2	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.377	0.209	38.2%	17.2%	22.8%	26.0%	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$4,300
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.338	0.116	28.6%	9.3%	21.5%	57.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.326	0.123	34.0%	8.5%	11.4%	50.8%	C	$3,600	1B/C	$4,500
5	Michael Morse	RIGHT	0.145	0.231	22.2%	0.0%	35.7%	55.6%	1B	$2,400	1B/OF	$2,800
6	Christian Arroyo	RIGHT	0.200	0.176	20.0%	5.6%	38.9%	60.0%	3B	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,900
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.322	0.122	26.0%	4.5%	14.3%	52.0%	3B	$2,800	3B/SS	$4,100
8	Drew Stubbs	RIGHT	0.300	0.154	25.0%	11.1%	42.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900
9	Matt Cain	RIGHT	0.073	0.059	14.3%	0.0%	58.8%	28.6%	P	$8,300	P	$7,500

Elite Plays – Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Michael Morse, Christian Arroyo, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

Matt Cain has some interesting splits. He has allowed a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters, but a much higher hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate, so all this says to me is that we can use batters from both sides of the plate. The Reds have the highest implied run total in the two-game early slate and we can target the one through seven batters in their lineup. Billy Hamilton is in a great spot once again, as Cain has the fifth highest stolen base rate against him of the 30 pitchers taking the mound tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.302	0.081	18.8%	8.8%	19.9%	47.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.328	0.162	30.6%	8.5%	16.9%	39.3%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.423	0.259	40.4%	17.3%	15.1%	38.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,300
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.332	0.260	37.6%	6.0%	26.5%	33.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.316	0.158	35.2%	7.9%	23.1%	39.7%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,800
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.342	0.207	33.9%	7.5%	22.5%	50.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.307	0.063	18.5%	2.1%	12.6%	44.4%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,600
8	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.209	0.083	24.3%	3.9%	21.6%	43.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900
9	Bronson Arroyo	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	22.2%	40.0%	P	$6,600	P	$6,000

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee						Pittsburgh
			Jimmy Nelson						Chad Kuhl
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-128						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.346	37.0%	12.6%	16.4%	45.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.404	38.4%	9.6%	15.4%	38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	28.4%	8.2%	18.4%	51.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	29.2%	6.3%	19.5%	47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jimmy Nelson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016	32	4.92	4.62	17.4%	10.7%	49.4%	32.6%	21.3%
	2017	5	4.48	5.34	18.3%	7.9%	44.4%	31.5%	14.1%

There are only a handful of times that I seriously consider rostering Nelson. It typically has to be a small slate, he has to be pitching at home, and he has to face a right-handed heavy lineup that strikes out at a high rate. We are basically 0-for-3 in the Nelson criteria, which makes him an easy fade. The Pirates may not have the most potent offense around, but Nelson is an underdog on the road in a 13-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: There are better pitching options than Nelson for both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2016	14	4.50	4.20	17.6%	6.6%	44.3%	33.0%	19.6%
	2017	5	5.05	6.26	17.6%	11.1%	39.7%	34.7%	16.0%

Kuhl has struggled with his command in his first five starts this season, allowing an 11% walk rate. He has had a strikeout rate under 18% in each of the last two years and he is giving up a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters. The Brewers may not have a lineup full of lefties, but Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw are three good ones. Large slates are all about options and there are better ones than Kuhl tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Until he can fix his command and start inducing more ground balls, Kuhl can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The book on Chad Kuhl is simple. I like simple. He has allowed a .404 wOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, while holding righties to a .278 wOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. The three hitters on my radar here are Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw. This probably isn’t a great spot to stack the Brewers, but you can certainly look at the three lefties as one-off targets or as a mini-stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.336	0.151	35.7%	11.1%	26.1%	60.6%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.459	0.366	49.1%	17.2%	20.7%	41.5%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
3	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.306	0.149	29.7%	5.4%	20.2%	48.1%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.326	0.193	34.0%	8.5%	23.3%	39.1%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.321	0.201	37.5%	10.0%	33.2%	45.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
6	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.296	0.153	36.5%	11.8%	36.3%	46.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
7	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.299	0.154	26.8%	3.8%	17.0%	30.9%	C	$2,900	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.252	0.140	23.2%	3.9%	23.4%	54.2%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
9	Jimmy Nelson	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	11.1%	4.3%	56.5%	75.0%	P	$7,300	P	$6,600	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – Travis Shaw (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

If you only look at wOBA, you would assume that Jimmy Nelson has identical splits to both left and right-handed hitters. However, he allows more contact and walks to lefties and his ground ball rate dips nearly seven percent compared to when he is facing a righty. John Jaso and Josh Bell are both serviceable value plays at first base, although we typically want to spend up to get a power hitter at that position. Gregory Polanco has been awfully quiet this season, but is my favorite play from the Pirates. Nelson struggles against lefties and has the highest stolen base rate of any pitcher in the slate. This also brings the speedy Josh Harrison into play batting leadoff.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.295	0.100	27.1%	3.6%	14.3%	44.3%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
2	John Jaso	LEFT	0.338	0.151	30.2%	10.5%	17.0%	49.1%	1B	$2,400	1B/OF	$2,900	1B	$5,700
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.320	0.163	35.1%	9.6%	21.4%	36.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.327	0.190	35.3%	9.3%	17.1%	39.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
5	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.352	0.152	32.9%	14.4%	14.9%	48.9%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.303	0.090	26.5%	13.4%	18.6%	54.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.289	0.096	24.8%	8.0%	14.2%	49.8%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
8	Alen Hanson	SWITCH	0.258	0.109	25.0%	4.2%	20.8%	50.0%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,300	SS	$6,600
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT	0.090	0.000	18.8%	7.7%	30.8%	76.9%	P	$6,700	P	$5,700	P	$11,400

Elite Plays – Josh Harrison (DK), Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison (FD), John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington						Philadelphia
			Stephen Strasburg						Nick Pivetta
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-155						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.255	23.8%	7.9%	29.4%	45.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.387	44.4%	0.0%	18.2%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	29.5%	6.0%	28.9%	39.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.582	62.5%	8.3%	25.0%	25.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$20,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	24	3.18	3.60	30.6%	7.4%	39.5%	26.6%	21.4%
	2017	5	3.42	3.09	22.6%	5.1%	53.1%	27.3%	23.2%

Strasburg has allowed at least two runs in every start this season. There are good and bad signs when we dive into his statistics. His ground ball rate is way up this season and he is inducing more soft contact than ever. His strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are both down, but that could be a byproduct of the schedule. He has yet to face a high strikeout offense. Speaking of scheduling, this will be the third time that Strasburg has faced the Phillies this season. He has 16 strikeouts in his first two starts against Philadelphia and should be able to rack up a strikeout per inning again tonight. With most of the aces in this slate pitching on the road, Strasburg is in the conversation for the number one pitching option.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is viable in all formats and he’s considerably cheaper than we are used to paying for an elite pitcher.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30

	2017	1	3.84	3.60	21.7%	4.4%	35.3%	52.9%	5.9%

Pivetta has a little revenge narrative brewing tonight, as he gets to face the team that drafted and traded him. Even before looking at his minor league statistics, you can tell that he has some promise, as the Nationals are only -155 favorites with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. In a full season at the Triple-A level last year, he posted a 27% strikeout rate. In three Triple-A starts before being called up this season, he had a 33% strikeout rate. Reports say that his fastball typically sits in the 92-95 MPH range, but he can get up to 97 MPH when needed. I usually don’t target pitchers against the Nationals, but I’m slightly interested at a price of $4,700 on DraftKings in a slate that features a game in Coors Field.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is still an unknown at this level, so I wouldn’t recommend using him in cash games. However, I don’t mind using him as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

It’s always hard to predict how young pitchers will fare in their first few major league starts. Nick Pivetta has never had great command in the minor leagues before this season and pitchers are typically pretty timid when facing the likes of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy. The Nationals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park and we know their offense has been firing on all cylinders. The one through six stack is viable in tournaments and the usual suspects are in play for cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.411	0.260	34.4%	5.0%	18.2%	43.2%	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000	IF/OF	$9,600
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.298	0.133	31.9%	11.0%	24.8%	42.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,500
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.379	0.231	35.5%	19.2%	15.6%	39.3%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.317	0.185	35.1%	5.1%	24.0%	45.3%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.416	0.255	39.0%	6.0%	9.5%	35.5%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,800	2B	$9,200
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.333	0.173	34.6%	8.7%	18.7%	37.9%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,000
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.254	0.107	31.9%	5.5%	29.8%	43.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.321	0.180	32.5%	7.3%	17.4%	37.3%	C	$3,000	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.143	0.021	8.9%	3.6%	14.5%	77.8%	P	$10,400	P	$10,600	P	$20,400

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The current roster of the Phillies has a .243 wOBA with a 34% strikeout rate in 124 plate appearances against Stephen Strasburg. With 13 games in the main slate, we can afford to be picky. The Phillies are an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.339	0.119	26.5%	11.0%	19.3%	52.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
2	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.278	0.104	30.3%	9.1%	32.4%	50.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.157	29.0%	9.4%	20.4%	43.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.296	0.153	29.9%	6.8%	16.0%	44.0%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.331	0.197	38.1%	10.2%	27.3%	39.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
6	Brock Stassi	LEFT	0.364	0.321	45.0%	6.7%	26.7%	35.0%	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,600	1B	$5,200
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.304	0.181	28.1%	4.6%	22.0%	39.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
8	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.302	0.171	33.2%	6.8%	28.0%	47.4%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT							P	$6,000	P	$4,700	P	$9,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox						Baltimore
			Miguel Gonzalez						Wade Miley
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-160						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	29.8%	7.9%	16.9%	39.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	36.4%	8.7%	21.5%	53.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	28.1%	4.4%	16.0%	39.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.349	32.7%	8.0%	20.7%	45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Miguel Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,100
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016	23	4.61	3.73	16.8%	6.2%	40.1%	28.6%	18.1%
	2017	5	4.88	3.27	15.1%	6.5%	37.0%	30.3%	21.1%

Gonzalez is one of those pitchers that I don’t love to target in DFS (unless he’s facing the Royals), but at the same time, I don’t love targeting hitters against him either. He has a below-average strikeout rate (which hurts his upside), but he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact and is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Gonzalez is an easy fade against the Orioles on the road, but I plan to have less exposure to Baltimore’s offense than the field.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez has more downside than upside in a matchup against the Orioles on the road.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	30	4.21	5.37	19.3%	6.9%	47.3%	33.3%	17.3%
	2017	5	4.10	2.32	29.7%	14.8%	47.8%	34.3%	18.6%

Miley has cost me a number of times this season. I have yet to play him and I have paid for it. At this point, I feel like it’s too late to hop on board, especially since I’ve been calling for regression for over a month now. Miley has a .254 BABIP and an 89% left on base percentage, both of which are unsustainable. His strikeout rate should also see some regression, as he hasn’t seen a bump in velocity and his swinging strike rate is below 10%. Everyone is going to gravitate to Miley as an SP2 tonight on DraftKings, but the White Sox are actually pretty good against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: The line in the sand has been drawn and you have to pick a side. You know where I stand on Miley.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Seeing as how I’m not a believer in Wade Miley, I’m obviously higher on the White Sox offense than most. The best part is that they create a natural leverage play off of Miley, who I expect to be fairly popular on DraftKings. If you look at the White Sox projected lineup below, eight of their nine starters have at least a .330 wOBA against southpaws. Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia are both elite one-off targets and you can even roll out a complete stack that should have sub-5% ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.340	0.100	31.7%	8.0%	17.7%	48.1%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.331	0.108	37.1%	2.4%	25.6%	58.0%	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.345	0.164	27.8%	5.7%	14.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.355	0.235	37.5%	8.7%	20.2%	45.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.345	0.276	28.7%	11.7%	26.6%	21.3%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,000
6	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.345	0.176	43.3%	8.6%	20.9%	55.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
7	Geovany Soto	RIGHT	0.395	0.275	31.3%	4.7%	20.9%	31.3%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.372	0.231	31.6%	13.3%	23.3%	21.1%	1B	$2,300	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
9	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.293	0.047	31.4%	2.3%	18.2%	60.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	2B	$6,000

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu (GPP), Avisail Garcia (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu (Cash), Avisail Garcia (Cash), Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Geovany Soto, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles are sizable favorites at home, but as I mentioned earlier, I’m not as high on this offense as I expect most people to be. Miguel Gonzalez isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Seth Smith still offers nice value batting leadoff and is fresh off of a monster game against the Red Sox. Manny Machado is still too cheap on FanDuel and is firmly in play. However, outside of that, I see the Orioles as secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.341	0.181	33.4%	11.4%	19.9%	46.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.343	0.193	32.8%	5.8%	15.7%	43.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.349	0.240	36.3%	7.0%	18.7%	36.8%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,600
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.373	0.278	37.0%	7.9%	24.6%	39.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,700
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.348	0.256	42.0%	14.3%	33.8%	37.7%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.340	0.207	29.4%	2.7%	19.7%	43.4%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
7	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.359	0.124	29.9%	9.9%	15.2%	52.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.286	0.118	30.5%	4.2%	16.9%	43.6%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.225	0.042	24.0%	4.8%	19.0%	42.6%	C	$2,400	C	$2,600	C	$5,200

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 5th

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Stackability Rating System:

NY Yankees at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Michael Morse, Christian Arroyo, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Travis Shaw (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Harrison (DK), Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison (FD), John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu (GPP), Avisail Garcia (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu (Cash), Avisail Garcia (Cash), Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Geovany Soto, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Manny Machado (FD)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (DK), Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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