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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-23 01:36:02

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Pittsburgh
Article Image Michael Wacha Article Image Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.329 30.0% 11.1% 19.9% 46.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.371 34.8% 4.3% 12.5% 43.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.290 26.1% 5.4% 24.3% 48.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.301 34.6% 4.0% 20.8% 47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 28 4.21 4.02 22.3% 8.1% 47.2% 27.9% 20.2%
L30 5 4.54 3.72 21.4% 9.5% 44.0% 28.7% 17.2%

Welcome to a Friday edition of the MLB Grind Down. This is everyone’s favorite day of the week and why wouldn’t it be? We have a massive 15 game slate on tap tonight and we also have some football to look forward to this weekend. We start with an unappealing game between the Cardinals and Pirates. Thanks to a four-game losing streak from the Rockies and a three-game winning streak of their own, the Cardinals are only a game and a half behind in the wildcard race. They will have Michael Wacha on the mound tonight, who owns a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% in his last five starts. Wacha is affordable, but he has limited strikeout upside against the Pirates, who have the third lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Strikeouts are king when it comes to DFS pitching. I’m worried about Wacha’s matchup.

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 29 4.38 4.20 16.9% 4.1% 45.4% 34.7% 16.8%
L30 4 3.99 7.45 27.6% 8.1% 26.8% 35.7% 8.9%

At first glance, Nova looks like one of the easier fades on the slate. However, the time to play him in DFS is when he is at home and facing a right-handed heavy offense. He has both in his favor tonight, as he squares off against a Cardinals’ offense that will likely have six or seven right-handed hitters in their lineup tonight. I’m not recommending Nova in cash games or even as a main tournament consideration, but if you are making ten lineups on a multi-pitcher site, he at least has some appeal as a low-owned target.

Quick Breakdown: If Nova can pitch around Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler, he could surprise some people tonight.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ offense was spitting fire in Cincinnati, but they see a big ballpark downgrade tonight and they are facing a pitcher that historically has had an elite ground ball rate. The right-handed batters in this lineup are easy fades in my eyes, as Nova has held righties to a .301 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate this season. The key targets here are the left-handed bats of Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. Nova has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.376 0.375 0.228 42.7% 18.1% 18.8% 24.6% 1B $4,100 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.399 0.361 0.195 35.2% 12.1% 22.7% 51.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
3 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.376 0.367 0.253 39.2% 13.5% 21.6% 37.6% OF $3,900 OF $5,100 CF $10,000
4 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.341 0.319 0.232 36.1% 2.8% 28.6% 32.4% SS $3,300 2B/SS $4,500 SS $8,700
5 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.326 0.366 0.138 34.8% 8.3% 20.3% 44.8% OF $2,600 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.309 0.316 0.137 33.8% 5.5% 14.9% 45.2% C $3,300 C $3,900 C $7,600
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.349 0.326 0.148 28.8% 9.8% 14.0% 45.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.321 0.331 0.148 30.3% 12.0% 21.7% 48.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.048 0.116 0.000 13.6% 2.6% 41.0% 87.5% P $8,200 P $8,200 P $16,000

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler

Secondary Plays – Kolten Wong

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have little to play for at this point in the season. We’ve been avoiding most of their offense anyway, so we should stick to the game plan tonight. Michael Wacha isn’t an elite pitcher, but he has an above-average strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .330 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.333 0.144 29.7% 8.7% 11.5% 46.5% OF $3,400 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.121 25.3% 5.3% 18.1% 48.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.325 0.332 0.156 32.7% 9.9% 18.7% 44.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.344 0.328 0.214 32.1% 11.3% 19.0% 51.4% 1B $2,300 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.316 0.331 0.106 31.3% 10.7% 24.7% 56.2% 3B $2,700 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.307 0.314 0.160 27.5% 6.8% 12.3% 39.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 RF $5,600
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.262 0.268 0.098 25.3% 6.1% 18.3% 54.5% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.303 0.304 0.144 27.4% 9.4% 15.8% 48.9% SS $2,100 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.000 0.072 0.000 5.0% 0.0% 50.0% 71.4% P $6,900 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
Article Image Alex Cobb Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-100 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.313 37.2% 9.1% 19.7% 42.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.365 36.4% 9.8% 23.0% 35.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.320 36.1% 3.7% 15.5% 51.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.331 36.6% 8.7% 20.3% 49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.50 8.59 15.4% 6.7% 52.5% 29.6% 17.3%
2017 28 4.48 3.63 17.3% 6.0% 47.7% 36.5% 14.8%
L30 5 3.14 2.73 25.9% 5.6% 60.3% 29.7% 17.6%

Cobb comes into tonight’s start in excellent form, posting a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 6%. He is back to inducing ground balls at an elite rate and he has been tough on righties, which bodes well for his start tonight against the Orioles. He’s not seeing any love from Vegas, but he’s the preferred pitching option in this game and it’s not particularly close. I’m a little hesitant to put my nest egg in Cobb shares, but he’s an interesting tournament play that should be less than 10% owned.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb is in good form and he’s facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense. At this price, he’s a viable SP2 in tournaments.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 24 4.48 6.57 21.6% 9.2% 43.2% 36.5% 17.8%
L30 3 3.22 6.59 31.2% 6.6% 31.6% 39.5% 13.2%

Jimenez doesn’t look bad when you look at his peripheral stats in his last five starts, but I’m always weary targeting fly-ball pitchers in this ballpark. Jimenez doesn’t have great command, he struggles with batters from both sides of the plate, and he doesn’t hold runners well. Even though he is cheap and has flashed some strikeout upside recently, he’s a tough sell against the Rays in this ballpark. Tampa Bay’s lineup has speed and left-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: There have been spots to target Ubaldo this season, but this isn’t one of them.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays’ stack let me down last night, but I don’t mind going right back to the well tonight. Ubalado Jimenez has allowed a .365 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. The successful stolen base rate against him is nearly twice as high as the next worst pitcher taking the mound tonight. Basically, we can feel good about a Rays’ stack because they have home run and stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.360 0.289 0.214 34.3% 8.5% 21.9% 44.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.366 0.374 0.306 43.8% 13.4% 24.6% 27.6% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.329 0.313 0.165 33.2% 5.2% 14.6% 42.3% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.365 0.376 0.292 40.4% 13.3% 25.3% 33.1% 1B $2,600 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.349 0.346 0.257 36.0% 12.3% 30.0% 42.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.276 0.303 0.168 33.0% 3.4% 17.9% 49.1% C $2,400 C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.331 0.317 0.221 36.1% 6.6% 24.0% 38.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
8 Brad Miller LEFT 0.289 0.320 0.120 37.7% 18.1% 27.4% 49.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.275 0.292 0.120 34.1% 3.4% 20.3% 50.0% SS $3,400 SS $3,300 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Steve Souza, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are a tougher sell tonight. While they have more talent in their lineup than the Rays, they draw a tougher matchup. Alex Cobb has a high ground ball rate and he has really limited his hard contact in his last five starts (29%). He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. The best way to attack Cobb is not with right-handed hitters that strikeout at a high rate, so I will be fading this offense as a whole despite the high implied team total.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.339 0.314 0.182 40.1% 5.6% 29.0% 48.3% SS $3,500 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.331 0.362 0.214 37.4% 8.0% 16.5% 43.1% 3B $3,500 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.343 0.304 0.191 33.4% 4.2% 20.3% 41.9% 2B $2,900 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.311 0.191 30.4% 3.4% 17.5% 44.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.368 0.349 0.236 34.7% 6.4% 22.6% 52.2% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.324 0.337 0.246 44.6% 12.2% 35.6% 36.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.285 0.296 0.160 30.3% 7.5% 25.1% 42.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.322 0.326 0.202 36.4% 5.8% 26.3% 42.0% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Austin Hays RIGHT 0.263 0.222 0.043 18.8% 4.2% 29.2% 75.0% OF $2,500 OF $2,700 CF $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
Article Image Masahiro Tanaka Article Image Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-150 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.329 32.2% 5.4% 25.1% 54.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.276 24.4% 6.5% 22.4% 32.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.303 29.9% 5.4% 24.3% 45.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.310 29.8% 10.6% 22.2% 27.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,300 Salary: $20,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 28 3.63 4.73 24.6% 5.4% 49.2% 30.9% 19.3%
L30 4 3.21 3.96 26.4% 4.7% 56.2% 26.0% 24.7%

The only knock on Tanaka this season has been the number of home runs that he has allowed. While his HR/FB rate has been high throughout his career, it’s over 20% this season. Basically, he’s had some very bad luck with home runs. Everything else looks great. He owns a 3.63 SIERA, a 25% strikeout rate, and a 5% walk rate. He induces a lot of ground balls and he limits hard contact against him (which is another reason why the home runs are so strange). People will be hesitant to play him tonight on the road, but they shouldn’t be. He has held the current Blue Jays’ roster to a .254 wOBA with 46 strikeouts in 200 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka has been my go-to tournament play all season. Let’s continue the tradition tonight.

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 31 4.64 4.84 22.3% 8.8% 29.7% 27.3% 21.6%
L30 5 4.99 3.77 18.7% 4.9% 26.6% 25.5% 29.8%

Estrada is a pitcher that I buy low on in certain spots. At home against the Yankees probably isn’t the best time to load up on him. Over his last five starts, he has a 4.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. He has one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball, which leads to a lot of home runs. Call me crazy, but I don’t want to rely on a fly-ball pitcher against this Yankees’ offense that is loaded with home run power.

Quick Breakdown: We have 15 games on the schedule tonight. There is no need to take the risk with Estrada.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees still have an outside chance of catching the Red Sox for the AL East title. They are three games behind and luckily get to face this Blue Jays’ team six more times this season. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against Marco Estrada, who issues a lot of walks and gives up a lot of home runs. He does induce a lot of lazy fly-balls, but the Yankees nearly hit as many home runs as any team in baseball. I’m not sure I will be stacking New York here, but I will be using a few of their hitters in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.330 0.188 32.2% 10.8% 18.4% 41.1% OF $4,100 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.420 0.427 0.326 43.1% 16.2% 31.4% 35.6% OF $4,600 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.371 0.253 35.2% 6.7% 23.3% 43.9% C $3,600 C $4,800 C $9,200
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.366 0.289 0.246 25.9% 4.9% 11.9% 37.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.327 0.294 0.158 29.0% 3.3% 20.1% 49.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.347 0.323 0.133 32.3% 12.2% 23.7% 43.1% 1B $3,800 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.306 0.328 0.193 30.6% 9.9% 26.3% 48.0% OF $3,000 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
8 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.362 0.344 0.167 26.1% 12.0% 10.9% 45.7% OF $4,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
9 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.325 0.342 0.179 29.8% 14.5% 22.2% 37.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,100

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Masahiro Tanaka has dominated the Blue Jays throughout his career. Meanwhile, Toronto can’t seem to score a run in much better matchups. This is September baseball and anything can happen, but I’m not expecting much from this offense the rest of the way. They are an easy fade tonight against Tanaka, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .330 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.354 0.294 0.141 26.6% 7.9% 23.1% 48.9% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.391 0.376 0.272 33.3% 15.9% 22.8% 43.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.363 0.387 0.275 41.0% 10.8% 22.1% 34.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.305 0.322 0.176 35.3% 12.7% 23.9% 35.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.293 0.356 0.191 38.0% 7.1% 21.9% 46.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.278 0.291 0.129 25.9% 5.0% 15.7% 44.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.335 0.340 0.166 29.2% 14.0% 21.3% 52.0% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.270 0.274 0.119 30.2% 6.9% 18.6% 46.7% SS $2,300 2B/SS $2,500 2B $4,800
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.254 0.248 0.120 21.6% 1.4% 15.5% 48.5% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,000 2B $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Cincinnati
Article Image Rick Porcello Article Image Sal Romano
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.339 42.2% 5.9% 20.9% 32.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.306 38.3% 10.3% 19.9% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.317 35.8% 4.4% 19.6% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.283 27.6% 8.2% 17.6% 56.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.78 3.15 21.2% 3.6% 43.1% 30.0% 16.9%
2017 31 4.27 4.46 20.2% 5.1% 39.2% 38.8% 17.3%
L30 5 4.90 4.34 16.0% 6.1% 38.2% 32.4% 19.6%

We have a rare interleague series between the Red Sox and Reds. While Porcello will finally get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup, he has to pitch in a home run-friendly ballpark. If anything, the trip to Cincinnati is a wash. Porcello has struggled over his last five starts, allowing a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has allowed too much hard contact this season, which doesn’t bode well for tonight’s game in the Great American Ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: The reigning Cy Young Award winner should be avoided in all formats.

Sal Romano
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.69 4.07 18.6% 9.2% 51.5% 32.4% 21.6%
L30 5 4.06 2.27 20.0% 6.9% 54.3% 30.5% 24.2%

Romano has a low ERA (2.27) in his last five starts, but his SIERA (4.06) and strikeout rate (20%) are both mediocre. His biggest asset thus far has been his ability to induce ground balls and soft contact. That combination really helps pitchers in this ballpark, as we typically see a lot of home runs hit in Cincinnati. While the Red Sox haven’t been great against right-handed pitching, they like to work counts and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Romano is a deep GPP play on multi-pitcher sites, but he’s not a core play in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Sox of Red get a rare glimpse at the Great American Smallpark and they get to face a rookie pitcher that is only making his 15th career start. Sal Romano has been tough on right-handed hitters (56% ground ball rate), but he has allowed a 38% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are both intriguing one-offs that should be low owned. In Moreland’s case, his expected wOBA against right-handed pitching is 51 points higher than his actual wOBA, which suggests positive regression.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.312 0.273 0.130 30.7% 8.2% 18.7% 47.1% SS $3,300 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.327 0.311 0.098 25.3% 9.0% 10.6% 48.5% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.350 0.343 0.181 37.1% 9.6% 16.8% 36.9% OF $4,200 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.326 0.331 0.187 35.4% 9.5% 11.7% 39.6% OF $4,500 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.326 0.377 0.201 39.7% 9.7% 20.6% 41.1% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.302 0.285 0.170 33.3% 7.2% 21.7% 51.4% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.265 0.266 0.116 30.9% 8.0% 25.9% 35.6% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.315 0.322 0.177 37.0% 8.3% 24.0% 43.1% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
9 Rick Porcello RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $8,400 P $7,900 P $15,300

Elite Plays – Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

Our favorite targets on the Reds bat from the left side of the plate. Our favorite targets against Porcello are left-handed hitters. This could be a match made in heaven. On the season, Porcello has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to lefties. This brings Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler into play. The best part is that they should all be fairly low owned, as Porcello still carries some name value after winning the Cy Young last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.420 0.360 0.250 33.3% 12.7% 16.7% 54.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.378 0.324 0.245 30.0% 11.7% 16.0% 38.1% SS $3,700 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.428 0.433 0.254 38.2% 19.0% 10.2% 37.3% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.358 0.352 0.202 31.3% 13.3% 22.3% 38.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.389 0.331 0.263 36.8% 6.4% 20.7% 39.8% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.306 0.277 0.218 31.3% 4.9% 27.7% 30.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.338 0.358 0.270 41.1% 10.1% 23.9% 43.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.325 0.332 0.130 34.7% 9.8% 16.0% 43.8% C $2,800 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.092 0.112 0.050 16.7% 4.0% 48.0% 83.3% P $7,200 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
Article Image Kyle Gibson Article Image Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-137 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.330 34.4% 8.5% 15.8% 45.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.391 0.322 36.8% 10.1% 20.2% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.373 37.7% 9.4% 17.8% 55.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.356 0.352 42.9% 10.2% 19.5% 40.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.73 5.07 15.9% 8.4% 48.8% 31.0% 18.6%
2017 27 4.79 5.07 16.8% 8.9% 50.6% 36.0% 14.9%
L30 5 4.01 2.56 21.1% 5.7% 44.9% 36.0% 12.4%

Gibson has pitched well in his last five starts, but he hasn’t exactly faced the best opposition during that stretch. He faced the Blue Jays twice, the Royals twice, and the Padres. He doesn’t face a great offense tonight either, but we have seen a number of shootouts in this ballpark over the last few weeks. The total for tonight’s game is set at 10.0 runs, which is more than enough justification to fade both of these starters.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll buy into Gibson if he can pitch well over a long stretch of time.

Daniel Norris
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 3.94 3.38 23.5% 7.3% 38.3% 33.0% 12.4%
2017 16 4.91 5.38 19.7% 10.2% 38.5% 41.4% 17.5%
L30 0 6.03 6.43 12.5% 12.5% 29.2% 37.5% 16.7%

Norris has really struggled in his 16 starts this season. In fact, if you look at the pitching table above, you won’t see a single blue or green box in the 2017 row. Basically, every single statistic of his is below the major league average. It doesn’t really matter who he is facing at this point. A 10% walk rate and a 41% hard contact rate makes him an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: You can argue that the Twins’ offense has been out-kicking their coverage recently, but Norris is an easy fade regardless.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw one of the top matchups of the slate, as they square off against Daniel Norris in Comerica Park, which has recently become a hitter’s paradise. In addition to the low strikeout rate and high walk rate, Norris has allowed a .352 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He has also struggled against lefties, but the righties are clearly the top targets in this lineup. The Twins’ stack worked to perfection last night and I will go right back to it tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.419 0.378 0.289 37.1% 13.3% 19.0% 42.9% 2B $3,900 2B $5,200 2B $10,200
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.344 0.317 0.074 21.2% 7.4% 13.3% 58.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.294 0.274 0.150 29.3% 4.3% 14.6% 34.1% SS $3,500 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.302 0.341 0.144 28.0% 8.0% 17.9% 33.1% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $4,300 SS $8,400
5 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.350 0.305 0.149 29.2% 12.1% 24.3% 38.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.284 0.250 0.109 28.7% 2.4% 19.9% 52.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
7 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.332 0.353 0.088 36.2% 18.7% 13.7% 44.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.307 0.320 0.173 36.5% 11.5% 27.6% 36.0% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Max Kepler LEFT 0.184 0.227 0.063 20.0% 5.6% 27.4% 50.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 RF $6,900

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Plays – Byron Buxton, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Kyle Gibson is one of the few pitchers with a ground ball rate over 50% and a hard contact rate over 35%. The two are usually negatively correlated. Basically, when he’s not inducing ground balls, he is getting hit hard. The Tigers have a lineup full of fly-ball hitters that hit the ball hard, so stylistically, this is a good matchup for Detroit. In terms of splits, Gibson has allowed a .330 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .373 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.293 0.314 0.145 35.3% 8.7% 14.3% 35.1% 2B $3,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.343 0.312 0.107 29.2% 5.0% 17.9% 45.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.291 0.374 0.146 42.4% 8.8% 20.4% 40.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.324 0.355 0.188 43.2% 6.1% 22.6% 36.2% OF $4,000 3B/OF $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.353 0.336 0.167 27.3% 12.4% 18.6% 45.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.293 0.301 0.127 38.9% 6.3% 27.7% 38.5% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.337 0.302 0.162 35.6% 6.7% 21.4% 49.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.234 0.238 0.086 31.3% 7.8% 36.7% 53.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.288 0.264 0.122 28.6% 4.6% 14.5% 52.2% SS $2,200 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Jeimer Candelario, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious