MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-30 01:23:09

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								NY Yankees
			Joe Biagini							Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-240							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.294	33.1%	7.8%	21.8%	52.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.325	32.0%	5.6%	25.9%	54.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.304	28.5%	8.6%	16.9%	58.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.310	30.9%	5.7%	23.6%	45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Biagini
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	0	3.45	3.06	21.0%	6.4%	52.2%	23.0%	17.7%
	2017	17	4.27	5.34	19.0%	8.3%	56.1%	30.4%	18.7%
	L30	5	4.70	5.11	16.2%	8.6%	56.4%	27.9%	20.3%

I’m a little disappointed that these are the two early games because two of the best pitching options aren’t included in the main slate. I probably should have saved that intro for Masahiro Tanaka because Biagini is not one of the pitchers that I’m talking about. After a nice start to the season, he has cooled off. In his last five starts, he has a 4.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 8%. Like many ground ball pitchers with low k-rates, Biagini is often at the mercy of BABIP. That’s not a place I want my pitcher to be, especially in a matchup against the Yankees in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Biagini is my least favorite pitching option for the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	31	3.79	3.07	20.5%	4.5%	48.2%	32.5%	18.5%
	2017	29	3.67	4.94	24.6%	5.6%	49.2%	31.3%	19.4%
	L30	4	3.93	6.46	22.9%	6.7%	52.7%	29.7%	28.4%

Tanaka has an ERA close to 5.00 this season, but that’s largely thanks to one of the highest HR/FB rates in baseball (21%). It doesn’t make sense for a pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact to give up a home run every fifth fly ball. Basically, it’s an unsustainable rate over the long run, even though it’s lasted this far into the season. I always give an edge to SIERA over ERA and a pitcher with above-average strikeout (25%) and ground ball (49%) rates is always going to catch my eye. Tanaka was knocked around in his last start against Toronto, but he has historically pitched very well against them. The Yankees are still alive in the hunt for the AL East title, so they still have plenty to play for.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is my favorite pitching option of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays’ lineup only has four hitters with an xwOBA over .320 against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, eight of their starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22%. This team has struggled against Masahiro Tanaka in the past and they come into today’s game as massive underdogs. We are to the point of the season where anything can happen, but I’m not a fan of the Blue Jays in this one. Surprisingly enough, Jose Bautista has the best BvP against Tanaka. He’s 10-for-36 lifetime with two home runs and three doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.441	0.351	0.404	28.2%	6.6%	29.5%	33.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.390	0.381	0.261	34.7%	15.6%	22.5%	42.4%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.302	0.318	0.176	34.2%	12.7%	23.8%	35.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.292	0.355	0.185	37.0%	7.3%	21.8%	45.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.262	0.292	0.128	31.4%	7.1%	22.5%	44.1%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.353	0.293	0.141	26.5%	7.9%	23.0%	48.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Raffy Lopez	LEFT	0.403	0.327	0.333	46.4%	12.8%	25.5%	22.2%	C	$2,800	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.281	0.275	0.134	30.8%	6.6%	19.1%	46.7%	SS	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.250	0.218	0.149	33.3%	5.9%	41.2%	48.0%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are facing a ground ball pitcher, but their lineup has a number of fly-ball hitters in it (Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird), which should help negate Joe Biagini high ground ball rate. New York is also playing at home where they continue to hit home runs in bunches. They have the highest implied run total in the early slate and it’s not particularly close. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field, this is the offense that I want to load up on for the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.355	0.333	0.207	30.6%	16.3%	18.1%	42.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.349	0.339	0.161	26.2%	11.7%	11.3%	45.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.437	0.442	0.357	44.6%	16.6%	30.7%	35.2%	OF	$5,300	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.357	0.294	0.234	26.5%	4.7%	11.3%	36.8%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.329	0.294	0.161	28.4%	3.7%	19.7%	51.1%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.266	0.314	0.180	33.3%	11.7%	25.8%	31.2%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.344	0.321	0.127	30.8%	12.4%	23.2%	44.2%	1B	$3,600	1B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.322	0.340	0.177	29.6%	14.7%	22.1%	37.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.261	0.296	0.053	23.5%	5.9%	22.5%	45.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Greg Bird, Chase Headley

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Chicago Cubs
			Robert Stephenson							Jose Quintana
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-180							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.348	42.5%	17.6%	23.0%	35.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.240	0.245	26.4%	3.2%	27.4%	46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.336	34.6%	11.7%	24.3%	38.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.322	34.4%	9.1%	25.9%	43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robert Stephenson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	8	5.12	6.08	18.2%	11.2%	34.5%	37.9%	17.2%
	2017	10	4.87	4.86	23.8%	14.1%	37.2%	37.7%	13.0%
	L30	5	4.63	3.00	27.4%	14.2%	31.3%	34.9%	13.6%

Stephenson has a high SIERA for a pitcher with his strikeout rate (24% this season). The reasoning is pretty simple; he gives up too many walks and too much hard contact. His high fly ball rate may actually do him some good today though, as the wind is blowing in from left right at 15 MPH. Vegas clearly expects the wind to play a role here, as the total for the game is set at only 7.0 runs. The Cubs have a few of their starters back in the lineup today, but will rest Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant once again. With nothing to play for, the Cubs are a better matchup than they would have been a few days ago.

Quick Breakdown: Stephenson is viable in tournaments, especially on multi-pitcher sites.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	32	4.01	3.20	21.6%	6.0%	40.4%	32.7%	18.6%
	2017	31	3.83	4.06	26.2%	7.9%	44.3%	32.7%	18.1%
	L30	5	2.83	2.14	30.1%	3.0%	45.2%	39.3%	16.7%

Quintana has been locked in over the last month of play, posting a 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. He draws a decent matchup against the Reds, who have six projected starters (including the pitcher) with a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching this season. It’s worth noting that the Cubs limited Kyle Hendricks to 81 pitches last night. I expect more of the same the rest of the way. Even if Quintana only pitches five or six innings, he’s still the second best pitcher of the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

In their projected lineup, the Reds have four batters that fare well against left-handed pitching and five that don’t. It’s pretty easy to spot the viable options, as they are all highlighted in blue in the table below — Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Duvall. In a full slate, the Reds would be an easy fade as a whole, but they make sense as leverage plays if you want to fade Jose Quintana in tournaments. As far as Quintana’s splits are concerned, he is much tougher on lefties (.245 xwOBA allowed) than he is on righties (.322 xwOBA allowed).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.234	0.212	0.081	15.7%	3.0%	23.6%	46.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.455	0.369	0.309	37.5%	12.6%	13.5%	33.8%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.420	0.408	0.262	31.9%	19.3%	15.0%	43.7%	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.386	0.363	0.244	44.1%	15.9%	24.8%	40.5%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.302	0.232	0.168	26.1%	4.7%	29.9%	48.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.330	0.306	0.223	38.2%	0.7%	21.6%	49.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.370	0.351	0.289	33.0%	8.5%	22.2%	42.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.263	0.294	0.103	25.5%	10.3%	17.9%	58.5%	C	$2,800	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Robert Stephenson	RIGHT	0.000		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$7,500	P	$6,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Even though the wind is blowing in from left field and even though the Cubs have nothing to play for, they still draw a favorable matchup against Robert Stephenson. In addition to his high walk rate, he has allowed a .348 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. We may not see any home runs to left field, but that doesn’t mean that the Cubs can’t string together hits and score runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.328	0.316	0.097	28.2%	7.7%	19.4%	46.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.326	0.333	0.156	33.1%	11.2%	14.8%	50.9%	2B	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Tommy La Stella	LEFT	0.371	0.353	0.198	33.0%	15.1%	11.9%	43.2%	3B	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.348	0.313	0.218	36.1%	8.3%	25.2%	53.7%	C	$3,200	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.341	0.352	0.277	38.0%	11.2%	29.9%	38.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.353	0.337	0.275	35.9%	10.9%	33.1%	41.9%	OF	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.378	0.419	0.213	54.6%	16.8%	32.4%	37.4%	C	$2,400	1B/C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Freeman	LEFT	0.188	0.203	0.116	25.8%	6.5%	26.1%	43.3%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Quintana	LEFT	0.071	0.099	0.000	0.0%	3.8%	53.8%	66.7%	P	$9,600	P	$11,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Tommy La Stella, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Alex Avila

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Philadelphia
			Matt Harvey							Ben Lively
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-135							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.425	0.417	37.1%	13.0%	13.5%	34.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.367	30.7%	9.7%	10.8%	40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	0.315	29.5%	8.8%	17.5%	52.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.290	31.8%	4.1%	18.5%	32.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	17	4.31	4.86	18.9%	6.2%	40.8%	30.3%	24.3%
	2017	17	5.39	6.60	15.6%	10.7%	44.1%	33.1%	23.7%
	L30	4	5.83	11.78	10.0%	9.0%	40.5%	28.2%	19.2%

Nope, don’t even think about it. Just pretend that the little + button next to his name doesn’t exist. Harvey might be one of the worst five pitchers in baseball right now. It’s sad to see such a talent fall from grace, but here we are. In 17 starts this season, he has a 6.60 ERA (5.39 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 11%. He has allowed a .417 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and tonight he has to play in a ballpark suited for home run production.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey should be avoided.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ben Lively
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30

	2017	14	5.26	4.35	14.6%	6.9%	36.4%	31.2%	20.7%
	L30	5	4.85	4.34	17.9%	5.7%	29.9%	28.1%	22.5%

The fact that Lively is a -135 favorite tonight tells us everything that we need to know about Matt Harvey right now. In 14 starts, Lively has a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. Even though this game features two of the worst offenses in the National League, I’m expecting some fireworks with these two pitchers on the mound.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lively in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets’ lineup looks bad these days, but they draw a favorable matchup in a home run-friendly ballpark. It’s not all bad for New York, at least for one night. On the season, Lively has allowd a .367 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. He has been tough on righties (.290 xwOBA allowed), but whoever the Mets roll out at catcher (Kevin Plawecki or Travis d’Arnaud) will be a viable punt in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.327	0.296	0.133	26.1%	7.1%	11.9%	54.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
2	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.296	0.291	0.142	26.2%	8.9%	13.6%	37.0%	SS	$4,000	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.312	0.331	0.171	37.1%	10.1%	16.4%	41.0%	3B	$3,100	2B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
4	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.387	0.361	0.192	36.1%	16.2%	26.6%	44.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800
5	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.325	0.345	0.200	34.4%	7.7%	12.8%	49.2%	C	$3,000	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
6	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.291	0.317	0.217	36.8%	4.4%	25.0%	49.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,600
7	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.277	0.226	0.128	23.5%	1.7%	29.8%	49.4%	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400
8	Travis Taijeron	RIGHT	0.221	0.186	0.036	33.3%	6.5%	51.6%	58.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,200	RF	$4,100
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.098	0.188	0.000	18.8%	4.0%	32.0%	53.8%	P	$5,700	P	$5,500	P	$10,800

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Plays – Nori Aoki, Kevin Plawecki or Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of the top stacks on the board. The fact that their implied run total isn’t that high will only help lower ownership. At this point, any offense facing Matt Harvey is an auto-stack, especially one that has a few lefties in it. On the season, Harvey has allowed a .417 xwOBA, a 37% hard contact rate, and a 13% walk rate to left-handed hitters. The Phillies are playing at home in a good ballpark, they are cheap, and they are stackable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.339	0.303	0.101	20.8%	10.4%	20.4%	49.8%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.303	0.291	0.141	27.9%	7.7%	19.1%	35.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.345	0.326	0.202	39.0%	5.9%	28.2%	48.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.437	0.383	0.364	46.6%	14.2%	22.0%	29.5%	1B	$3,900	1B/OF	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.374	0.327	0.244	37.1%	6.5%	29.1%	41.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.326	0.303	0.169	27.8%	6.7%	21.9%	41.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.409	0.319	0.209	21.3%	0.0%	28.2%	55.3%	C	$3,000	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
8	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.359	0.316	0.128	20.0%	18.4%	20.4%	30.0%	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
9	Ben Lively	RIGHT	0.288		0.188	20.0%	0.0%	37.5%	50.0%	P	$5,900	P	$6,700	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Washington
			Gerrit Cole							Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-190							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.337	38.2%	6.6%	22.5%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.249	0.260	23.1%	8.1%	29.3%	46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	0.288	24.7%	6.5%	23.2%	48.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.272	31.1%	5.3%	28.9%	45.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	32	4.01	4.23	22.9%	6.5%	45.8%	31.2%	23.8%
	L30	5	4.09	5.58	27.3%	10.9%	43.0%	29.1%	19.0%

The Pirates have been eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time, but at least they aren’t going to be resting up for the postseason. We should expect a full complement of pitches for Cole, who should fly under the radar despite a 27% strikeout rate in his last five starts. Cole is one of the more frustrating players in DFS, but he tends to show up at times when nobody is on him. The Nationals have a solid offense, but they are locked into the two seed and have nothing to play for the rest of the way.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is an intriguing tournament play tonight at what should be low ownership.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,500	Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$23,200
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	24	3.18	3.60	30.6%	7.4%	39.5%	26.6%	21.4%
	2017	27	3.38	2.63	29.1%	6.7%	46.3%	27.2%	21.1%
	L30	5	2.84	0.79	31.0%	4.7%	52.5%	29.3%	22.0%

On paper, Strasburg is the clear ace of tonight’s slate. He’s had another tremendous season for the Nationals, posting a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. His ground ball rate is up this season, which has led to more soft and medium contact. There is nothing to suggest that he’ll pitch poorly tonight, especially given the fact that he’ll want to head into the playoffs with confidence. My only concern is that the Nationals have no reason to let him throw 100+ pitches. I hate trying to predict what managers will do in these situations, but if I was the one making the calls, I’d let him pitch five innings and then pull him.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is still the top pitching option in the slate, but there is an argument to be made if you want to fade him in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw the worst matchup in the entire slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Stephen Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Even if the Nationals decide to pull Strasburg early, the Nationals’ bullpen is no slouch.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.332	0.331	0.143	29.5%	8.6%	12.0%	46.6%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.354	0.329	0.135	25.6%	6.5%	17.8%	47.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.334	0.337	0.166	33.3%	10.3%	18.3%	43.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.348	0.329	0.216	32.6%	11.3%	19.2%	51.7%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.316	0.335	0.108	31.6%	10.2%	23.7%	56.3%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.309	0.317	0.164	27.8%	6.9%	12.1%	40.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,600
7	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.251	0.261	0.089	25.0%	5.6%	19.4%	52.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.308	0.304	0.150	27.9%	9.2%	15.6%	48.3%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.188	0.131	0.093	15.4%	1.8%	27.3%	65.4%	P	$8,500	P	$7,800	P	$15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

As you will soon see, there are a ton of games that could shootout tonight. At this point in the season, there are more bad pitchers taking the mound than good pitchers. For that reason, I don’t want to play any hitter that is in a bad matchup. While Gerrit Cole has struggled with lefties throughout his career, we can certainly find better matchups to exploit tonight. The total for this game is set at only 7.5 runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.358	0.319	0.201	27.7%	6.3%	18.3%	50.8%	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,300	IF/OF	$10,200
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.452	0.434	0.344	35.3%	16.7%	16.4%	37.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,000
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.391	0.373	0.237	35.0%	9.7%	10.8%	33.3%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,300
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.365	0.363	0.242	39.2%	7.2%	24.1%	46.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.374	0.351	0.206	33.7%	12.7%	14.6%	35.2%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,600	3B	$8,800
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.307	0.321	0.162	31.7%	11.1%	25.3%	43.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.334	0.282	0.218	34.0%	6.8%	33.1%	42.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.268	0.302	0.115	29.2%	7.8%	18.3%	41.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.157	0.206	0.086	14.3%	0.0%	24.3%	60.0%	P	$10,500	P	$12,000	P	$23,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Miami
			Luiz Gohara							Dan Straily
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.174		25.0%	13.3%	33.3%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.314	0.290	28.6%	8.9%	21.9%	34.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.380	0.286	29.3%	4.9%	24.4%	35.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.299	35.4%	6.0%	22.6%	34.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luiz Gohara
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30

	2017	4	3.80	4.63	25.8%	6.2%	35.9%	28.8%	22.7%
	L30	4	3.81	4.63	25.8%	6.2%	35.9%	28.8%	22.7%

Gohara has fared pretty well in his first four major league starts, posting a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He flashed some upside in the minors, but only made seven Triple-A starts before getting called up earlier this season. He is still inexperienced when it comes to facing major league hitters. He checks into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog on the road with the total set at 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Gohara offers some strikeout potential at a low price, but he’s a risky fantasy option.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	31	4.67	3.76	20.5%	9.2%	32.0%	32.2%	14.8%
	2017	32	4.39	4.08	22.2%	7.5%	34.3%	31.9%	19.3%
	L30	5	4.54	5.67	22.7%	9.4%	31.8%	26.7%	14.0%

Straily is a fly-ball pitcher that benefits from playing in the spacious Marlins Park. On the season, he has a 4.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s one of those pitchers that never really stands out as a must play, but that we don’t mind clicking when we need a mid-range SP2 to round out our lineups with. I feel the same way about Straily tonight. His matchup against the Braves isn’t great, but he’s a sizable favorite at home.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is viable as an SP2 in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves draw a fairly difficult matchup against Dan Straily. While he has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, he has held batters from both sides of the plate under a .300 xwOBA this season. Straily also has an above-average strikeout rate and good command. There are a handful of offenses in truly great spots, so we shouldn’t waste a ton of time on the Braves.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.332	0.289	0.115	23.6%	6.4%	13.6%	42.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.323	0.307	0.149	31.8%	8.1%	17.3%	38.7%	2B	$4,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.419	0.421	0.290	39.0%	13.9%	17.2%	33.7%	1B	$3,900	1B/3B	$5,300	1B	$10,400
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.323	0.337	0.106	34.4%	11.3%	16.5%	47.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.330	0.317	0.193	30.4%	5.1%	13.1%	37.4%	C	$3,700	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
6	Rio Ruiz	LEFT	0.228	0.295	0.076	28.9%	9.5%	24.3%	60.8%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,700	3B	$5,400
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.269	0.286	0.087	26.7%	10.7%	22.1%	48.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.283	0.306	0.097	28.2%	12.6%	21.6%	58.5%	2B	$2,600	2B/OF	$2,600	2B	$5,200
9	Luiz Gohara	LEFT	0.000		0.000	50.0%	0.0%	71.4%	0.0%	P	$7,100	P	$6,500	P	$12,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton hit home runs number 58 and 59 last night. He’s now one shy of joining the 60 home run club and he has a great chance to get there tonight against a rookie southpaw. On the season, Stanton owns a .461 xwOBA, a .433 ISO, and a 41% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. He is still plenty motivated, so I will be forcing him into as many lineups as possible. The other right-handed hitters in this lineup are also viable against rookie Luiz Gohara.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.286	0.247	0.044	12.0%	1.1%	11.8%	63.4%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.468	0.461	0.433	40.8%	18.8%	14.8%	44.9%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.304	0.328	0.130	30.6%	7.1%	19.6%	56.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.343	0.331	0.114	35.4%	10.9%	19.6%	54.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,700
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.355	0.346	0.206	34.1%	9.8%	16.4%	39.8%	C	$2,800	C	$4,100	C	$8,000
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.359	0.303	0.253	27.3%	10.1%	28.1%	54.5%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
7	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.342	0.377	0.050	20.0%	4.8%	23.8%	46.7%	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,700	3B	$5,200
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.287	0.318	0.103	24.2%	7.9%	9.2%	37.7%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,800	2B	$7,500
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.088	0.081	0.071	12.5%	0.0%	50.0%	60.0%	P	$7,400	P	$7,100	P	$14,000

MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 29th

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Stackability Rating System:

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Greg Bird, Chase Headley

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tommy La Stella, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Alex Avila

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Plays – Nori Aoki, Kevin Plawecki or Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson

Stackability – YELLOW

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