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MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-18 00:59:55

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
milwaukeemlb Brent Suter pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.288 37.0% 4.4% 13.2% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.342 36.1% 9.3% 17.3% 37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.277 23.2% 7.4% 22.8% 47.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.298 29.8% 7.2% 19.1% 48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brent Suter
brent-suter-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 26 Salary Rank: 16 of 26 Salary Rank: 14 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.33 3.32 16.5% 5.5% 43.3% 34.3% 22.9%
2017 3 4.00 2.96 22.1% 7.1% 46.2% 22.8% 19.0%

Happy Monday everyone. We start the week with a 12-game main slate, which is bigger than usual for a Monday. The crazy part is that this slate features very few pitching options, which will quickly become evident as we look into each game. Suter will be making his fourth start of the year. He may not be as talented as his numbers suggest, but he’s shown some upside in the minors and he owns a 22% strikeout rate this season in the majors. Given the lack of options, Suter isn’t the worst play on the board. His matchup against the Pirates is far from ideal though, as they own the seventh lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Suter is worth a look as a deep GPP flier.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 19 of 26 Salary Rank: 17 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 18 4.88 4.96 18.8% 9.5% 42.1% 32.6% 15.7%

Kuhl hasn’t had a great season, but he’s at his best at home and against right-handed hitters. He doesn’t have a big platoon advantage tonight, but he’ll likely face four righties, four lefties, and the opposing pitcher. The Brewers have good power against right-handed pitching, but they also strikeout a lot (third highest k-rate against righties), which makes this a boom or bust matchup. Even though the over/under is set at 9.0 runs, Kuhl is a small favorite and he’s dirt cheap across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is viable in tournaments, but there are a few options that I’d target before him in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers see a negative ballpark shift playing in PNC Park, but draw a decent matchup against Chad Kuhl. Right-handed hitters haven’t had much success against Kuhl in his career, but he has allowed a .342 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Stephen Vogt are all viable plays here and should all be low-owned in this slate. This isn’t the best spot for a full Brewers’ stack, but we can certainly target a few of their bats as one-off GPP plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.325 0.300 0.144 35.5% 10.7% 26.2% 59.6% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.407 0.351 0.322 43.0% 17.3% 24.2% 38.3% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,400
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.339 0.237 34.7% 7.6% 19.5% 54.9% OF $4,400 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.355 0.341 0.219 36.9% 9.5% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $4,000 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.346 0.333 0.185 35.1% 11.7% 32.0% 46.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
6 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.318 0.323 0.178 28.8% 7.8% 15.8% 30.6% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.313 0.297 0.196 36.8% 9.8% 37.5% 42.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.290 0.258 0.139 26.1% 4.5% 19.9% 54.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Brent Suter LEFT 0.292 0.109 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $6,600 P $6,200 P $12,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

It could be an issue with the sample size (only five starts), but Brent Suter has been very tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .277 xwOBA and a 23% hard contact rate. His numbers in the minor leagues suggest some regression, but he’s still not a pitcher that we want to load up hitters against. There isn’t anything that really stands out in this matchup from a splits perspective, but the Pirates are facing a young lefty that is only making his sixth career major league start. The four batters that hit southpaws well in this lineup are Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli, Andrew McCutchen, and David Freese.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.360 0.301 0.182 34.6% 5.6% 15.2% 36.9% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.365 0.382 0.077 42.1% 13.1% 14.0% 56.0% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,600
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.382 0.379 0.266 37.9% 14.8% 16.3% 36.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.394 0.368 0.168 42.7% 16.9% 25.3% 62.5% 3B $2,800 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.309 0.332 0.187 28.0% 10.6% 16.3% 54.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
6 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.319 0.275 0.204 28.3% 5.3% 14.0% 47.8% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.325 0.336 0.163 30.2% 13.0% 14.5% 46.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Maxwell Moroff SWITCH N/A N/A
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.110 0.133 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 75.0% P $6,700 P $5,600 P $11,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Texas Baltimore
texasmlb Andrew Cashner baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-115 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.373 37.1% 12.0% 16.3% 38.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.345 31.3% 12.4% 19.5% 42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.319 29.7% 8.5% 16.2% 57.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.345 33.7% 7.1% 17.3% 39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 15 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.72 5.25 19.1% 10.2% 46.5% 35.8% 12.5%
2017 14 5.70 3.54 11.6% 10.4% 49.8% 29.5% 19.4%

Cashner must have made a deal with the devil in the offseason. Despite having a walk rate (10%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (12%), he has a 3.54 ERA on the season. His advanced numbers all suggest some serious regression, but we’ve been saying that for months now. I’m not suggesting that we use him tonight, but his matchup actually sets up pretty well for Cashner. He has a 57% ground ball rate and a .319 xwOBA against right-handed hitters and the Orioles will likely only have two lefties in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not condoning a Cashner play here, but we may want to limit our exposure to the righties from Baltimore.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 20 of 26 Salary Rank: 23 of 26 Salary Rank: 21 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 11 5.55 7.90 14.6% 10.5% 39.9% 35.9% 19.0%

Statistically speaking (and by the eye test), Tillman has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. In 11 starts, he has a 5.55 SIERA (7.90 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 11%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he pitches in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. While he doesn’t face an American League East opponent tonight, the Rangers aren’t that much better of a matchup. Texas is currently ranked tenth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Tillman could be facing a local softball team and I’d still have my concerns. Avoid him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are one of the top stacks on the board tonight. I always like stacking road teams for two reasons – first, they are always guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats even if they are winning. And second, they tend to be lower owned because home teams generally have higher implied run totals. As mentioned above, Chris Tillman has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. He has been equally bad against left and right-handed hitters, allowing a .345 xwOBA to both. A Rangers’ stack is firmly in play here and we can load up on their hitters in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.327 0.381 0.156 42.6% 12.6% 21.7% 45.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.343 0.321 0.147 27.5% 7.7% 14.0% 47.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.341 0.337 0.196 31.9% 8.3% 18.8% 43.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.362 0.365 0.219 34.6% 7.2% 10.6% 40.8% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.329 0.296 0.244 35.8% 3.1% 22.4% 39.5% 2B $3,200 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.327 0.301 0.200 34.6% 9.0% 30.2% 42.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.343 0.332 0.164 29.9% 7.3% 15.0% 43.9% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.323 0.325 0.238 35.3% 10.0% 30.1% 36.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.331 0.321 0.296 42.1% 14.8% 39.7% 26.3% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles may be favored in this game, but they have less appeal than the Rangers if we are talking about a full stack. As I mentioned above, Andrew Cashner has actually been pretty tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .319 xwOBA, a 30% hard contact rate, and a 57% ground ball rate. The best time to stack against Cashner is when he if facing a left-handed heavy lineup. I see Seth Smith and Chris Davis as elite one-off targets, but I’m taking a calculated fade on the righties in this lineup. We have to take a stand somewhere and tonight mine will be against the Orioles’ righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.333 0.368 0.174 34.1% 10.2% 21.1% 45.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.356 0.237 35.2% 6.9% 18.7% 38.0% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.336 0.196 32.3% 4.9% 16.5% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.345 0.351 0.265 42.8% 13.6% 34.8% 36.1% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.367 0.375 0.257 36.7% 8.5% 23.3% 39.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.341 0.316 0.203 29.5% 3.3% 20.5% 41.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.403 0.343 0.247 36.5% 6.3% 26.2% 53.2% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.302 0.297 0.143 33.7% 6.3% 27.1% 41.9% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.198 0.254 0.038 19.1% 5.6% 20.2% 38.3% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff miamimlb Tom Koehler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-150 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.323 32.5% 7.5% 17.4% 38.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.361 31.3% 13.6% 19.7% 37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.282 30.5% 4.8% 23.8% 43.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.328 29.5% 8.0% 18.2% 44.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 16 of 26 Salary Rank: 15 of 26 Salary Rank: 13 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 15 4.64 4.63 19.9% 8.5% 40.8% 33.3% 14.9%

Eickhoff is having a down season for the Phillies. In 15 starts, he has a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He has never been a ground ball pitcher and he is allowing more hard and medium contact this season. While he does see a ballpark boost playing in Miami, that’s not enough of a reason to warrant consideration. The Marlins are currently ranked 17th in team wOBA and tenth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, so this is far from an ideal matchup.

Quick Breakdown: As a sizable underdog on the road, Eickhoff is an easy fade tonight.

Tom Koehler
tom-koehler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 25 of 26 Salary Rank: 18 of 26 Salary Rank: 16 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.85 4.33 19.0% 10.7% 42.2% 28.6% 21.0%
2017 10 5.15 8.00 19.1% 11.4% 37.7% 37.3% 12.0%

I didn’t expect Koehler to be on my radar in a 12 game slate, but we have to play the cards that we are dealt. The pitching options are obviously scarce if you see me recommending a guy with an ERA of 8.00. Before you close your browser, hear me out. He has been considerably better at home than he has been on the road in the last few seasons, he still has a decent strikeout rate (19%), and he is facing a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. At a price under $6,000 on FD and DK, he doesn’t need to have a perfect outing to exceed value. I’m always more willing to take a chance on cheap pitchers in good strikeout matchups and Koehler clearly has one tonight against the Phillies.

Quick Breakdown: It makes me cringe, but Koehler is a viable SP2 for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

I’m hitching my wagon to Tom Koehler tonight, so there isn’t much room for Phillies’ exposure. However, if you are fading Koehler and want to take some hitters against him, I certainly can’t blame you. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .361 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .328 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Tommy Joseph and Odubel Herrera are both intriguing one-off targets that should end up being less than 5% owned in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.307 0.108 24.9% 10.6% 19.2% 52.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.276 0.179 28.4% 5.7% 21.4% 40.1% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.289 0.315 0.151 28.1% 6.5% 16.0% 46.2% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.321 0.325 0.206 37.9% 5.4% 22.5% 42.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.332 0.307 0.150 29.4% 8.0% 21.2% 42.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
6 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.345 0.338 0.158 35.4% 13.5% 27.9% 61.5% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,700
7 Nick Williams LEFT 0.347 0.380 0.161 45.8% 5.9% 20.6% 41.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
8 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.323 0.336 0.103 34.8% 8.2% 18.0% 40.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.144 0.195 0.050 8.7% 1.6% 24.2% 60.5% P $6,900 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tommy Joseph, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins are one of the sneakier offenses to target tonight. Even though they play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they have a high implied run total and they have all of the tools like we like to see in a stack. They have decent speed with Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich and they have home run power with Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Justin Bour. The top five batters are all in play tonight against Jerad Eickhoff, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a lot of hard and medium contact this season. I wouldn’t call them elite plays individually, but Miami certainly makes for a nice contrarian stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.302 0.250 0.076 18.1% 5.6% 14.6% 57.0% 2B $3,000 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.350 0.338 0.250 37.3% 9.4% 28.5% 40.9% OF $4,100 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.371 0.381 0.183 40.1% 12.2% 19.3% 55.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.348 0.339 0.205 37.8% 7.5% 20.7% 45.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.359 0.388 0.237 39.5% 11.9% 17.4% 42.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.298 0.304 0.106 25.2% 5.7% 11.5% 48.9% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.339 0.310 0.124 30.3% 5.2% 16.6% 50.4% C $3,200 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.291 0.286 0.138 38.9% 6.0% 19.0% 49.6% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
9 Tom Koehler RIGHT 0.055 0.099 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 55.8% 64.7% P $5,700 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Toronto Boston
torontomlb Marcus Stroman bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-103 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.310 32.9% 7.2% 19.6% 61.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.298 24.2% 9.0% 25.7% 40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.307 29.5% 5.5% 19.9% 59.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.305 29.0% 8.6% 22.8% 30.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 26 Salary Rank: 5 of 26 Salary Rank: 4 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 18 3.71 3.28 20.4% 6.4% 60.9% 30.0% 20.9%

Stroman is a pitcher that I roster more often than most. I’m always interested in a pitcher with an elite ground ball rate and at least an average strikeout rate. Stroman fits the mold, as he owns a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 61% ground ball rate this season. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact and his ability to generate ground balls helps him pitch well in hitter-friendly ballparks like Fenway. The issue tonight is obviously the matchup. The Red Sox drive up pitch counts and they have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Boston has also hit Stroman well in the past (combined .353 wOBA in 123 plate appearances).

Quick Breakdown: The pitching options are ugly tonight, but I still don’t want to pick on the Red Sox in Fenway.

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 4 of 26 Salary Rank: 8 of 26 Salary Rank: 7 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.44 4.71 21.8% 8.7% 31.6% 27.6% 22.2%
2017 10 3.97 3.54 26.3% 8.5% 34.8% 28.9% 17.6%

Rodriguez is making his first start in a month and a half, after missing some time with a knee injury. He has made three rehab starts in the minors and threw 94 pitches in his last outing, so we don’t really need to worry about him being limited tonight. Rodriguez has shown plenty of upside this season, posting a 26% strikeout rate with an 11.9% swinging strike rate. His matchup against the Blue Jays looks tough on paper, but Toronto is actually ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws this season. For tournaments, I prefer Rodriguez over Marcus Stroman, but will probably end up passing on both.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a little worried about the matchup and also some potential rust. Rodriguez is a deep GPP play at best tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

From a splits standpoint, this is a tough matchup for the Blue Jays. Over the last two seasons, Eduardo Rodriguez has held left-handed hitters to a .298 xwOBA and a 24% hard contact rate. His numbers against right-handed hitters are solid as well – .305 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. If you are targeting the Blue Jays tonight, it’s likely due to the ballpark and due to the fact that Rodriguez is making his first major league start in a month and a half. I see this as a good spot for one-off targets, but I don’t love a full Toronto stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.296 0.344 0.158 36.2% 14.4% 19.6% 44.1% OF $3,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.304 0.356 0.149 41.9% 15.2% 27.2% 40.0% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,800
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.391 0.404 0.231 39.7% 18.6% 15.1% 36.6% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.359 0.373 0.190 36.6% 9.7% 15.9% 38.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.390 0.397 0.230 40.1% 5.5% 20.4% 40.1% 1B $3,200 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.288 0.307 0.143 29.3% 8.5% 16.4% 48.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.393 0.360 0.286 41.1% 11.0% 22.1% 35.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 1B $6,800
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.342 0.311 0.170 34.7% 3.7% 15.4% 37.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.312 0.297 0.073 24.4% 8.7% 16.9% 41.8% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,300 2B $4,400

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista (FD & FDRFT), Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox draw a difficult matchup tonight against Marcus Stroman. In addition to his elite ground ball rate, Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. For what it’s worth, Boston has hit him well in the past though, specifically Xander Bogaerts (10-for-20) and Dustin Pedroia (7-for-15). This is a slate full of great matchups, so I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to the Red Sox, even though they are favorites and playing in a hitter’s park.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.376 0.336 0.210 34.6% 8.1% 10.3% 41.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.348 0.325 0.122 31.3% 7.9% 9.9% 50.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.344 0.293 0.150 30.7% 7.4% 17.6% 47.3% SS $3,300 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.319 0.366 0.197 39.2% 8.9% 22.6% 39.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.339 0.345 0.180 36.7% 9.2% 19.4% 47.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.363 0.345 0.201 38.7% 10.2% 15.3% 34.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.364 0.366 0.238 38.5% 10.8% 21.1% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.256 0.251 0.065 27.1% 3.7% 22.1% 56.3% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.322 0.313 0.139 25.5% 8.4% 16.9% 52.5% 2B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

St. Louis NY Mets
stlouismlb Adam Wainwright nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.333 32.9% 8.4% 18.9% 42.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.344 41.1% 9.8% 25.9% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.317 29.1% 6.2% 20.1% 46.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.315 28.8% 9.4% 17.3% 52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 26 Salary Rank: 4 of 26 Salary Rank: 3 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.31 4.62 19.0% 7.0% 43.8% 31.2% 19.1%
2017 18 4.25 5.20 20.7% 7.7% 47.7% 29.9% 21.1%

All right class, do you remember the Wainwright flowchart?

Is he pitching at home? If so, move on to the next question. If not, avoid immediately.

Is he facing a left-handed heavy lineup. If not, move on the to next question. If so, avoid immediately.

And finally, can we stomach targeting Wainwright in this slate?

Unfortunately for Wainwright, he didn’t pass the first or second questions, so we didn’t even get a chance to answer the third. Wainwright has really bad splits on the road and really bad splits against left-handed pitching. He is an easy fade tonight against the Mets, who will likely have at least five lefties in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Trust the flowchart and avoid Wainwright.

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 26 Salary Rank: 12 of 26 Salary Rank: 11 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.50 4.86 21.0% 9.6% 47.6% 33.6% 19.2%

Wheeler hasn’t had the best season overall, boasting a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 10%. He still has plenty of talent though, so I’m not going to give up on him just yet. I just need to see a few quality starts in a row before I start seriously considering him in DFS. Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals doesn’t look great on paper, but at least he will have the platoon advantage. At the most, St. Louis will have three left-handed hitters in their lineup and Wheeler has historically fared very well against righties.

Quick Breakdown: At his price point, Wheeler is a viable GPP play on multi-pitcher sites (DK & FDRFT).

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals haven’t had the best offensive season, but their lineup looks pretty daunting at this point in time. Their matchup against Zack Wheeler isn’t the best on the board, but he has struggled with left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .344 xwOBA with a massive 41% contact rate. The Cardinals’ hitters seem to be under-owned most nights, especially when they are on the road. If we get the sense that Matt Carpenter and/or Dexter Fowler are going to be low owned, load up on them in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.380 0.414 0.251 46.6% 16.1% 18.8% 27.0% 2B $3,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.351 0.353 0.189 40.5% 9.3% 30.1% 54.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
3 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.363 0.351 0.202 31.6% 13.8% 24.1% 36.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.358 0.339 0.257 34.1% 8.9% 23.7% 42.4% 3B $3,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.322 0.332 0.122 32.9% 5.8% 11.9% 47.3% C $2,600 C $2,700 C $5,400
6 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.483 0.643 0.370 43.5% 6.7% 13.3% 39.1% 1B $2,700 1B $2,800 1B $5,600
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.370 0.304 0.284 38.4% 1.0% 28.8% 31.5% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,300 3B $6,400
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.316 0.254 0.000 11.1% 11.5% 19.2% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 CF $4,800
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.307 0.280 0.269 30.2% 2.6% 27.6% 40.0% P $8,400 P $9,100 P $17,600

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets are another sneaky offense to target that should fly under the radar for the most part. Adam Wainwright numbers overall aren’t great, but they get much worse when you separate them by home/road and handedness splits. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .333 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. I’m a fan of every left-handed hitter in this lineup and will be making a Mets’ stack or two in tournaments. If the bad Wainwright shows up, the Mets will jump on him early.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.367 0.366 0.242 43.3% 12.7% 24.0% 36.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.330 0.197 35.6% 7.8% 17.2% 38.4% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.346 0.353 0.226 38.7% 7.5% 19.3% 36.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.366 0.292 41.5% 9.3% 21.1% 35.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.376 0.304 0.179 28.7% 3.6% 10.0% 38.6% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.357 0.390 0.244 40.7% 12.8% 21.7% 30.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.278 0.269 0.139 26.0% 7.4% 15.6% 36.7% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.276 0.297 0.127 33.0% 5.7% 17.1% 47.0% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.117 0.174 0.043 15.4% 4.0% 44.0% 50.0% P $7,800 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious