MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 11th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
 | Steven Wright |  | Dylan Bundy | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BOS-110 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.138 | 0.286 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.370 | 0.387 | 35.5% | 8.8% | 21.3% | 33.9% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.266 | 0.268 | 17.8% | 13.2% | 20.6% | 55.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.290 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 33.8% | 37.9% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Steven Wright | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 13 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | 5.23 | 8.25 | 11.4% | 4.4% | 41.5% | 41.5% | 14.9% | |
| 2018 | 1 | 4.58 | 1.57 | 22.7% | 14.8% | 54.5% | 18.2% | 30.9% | |
| L14 | 1 | 4.30 | 0.00 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 55.6% | 19.4% | 36.1% | |
Hello Grinders. We have a nice eight-game slate today. I’m covering for Noto, who should be back tomorrow. Let’s dive into the games.
Steven Wright is coming off a dominant performance against the Tigers where he threw seven shutout innings while striking out six. It was his first start of season as he was filling in for Drew Pomeranz, and if you include his prior relief appearances, he’s now thrown 16 consecutive shutout innings. It’s promising to note that even though he had been pitching out of the bullpen, the Red Sox let him throw 96 pitches in his spot start, so there doesn’t appear to be any restrictions heading into this game. Wright was fantastic in 2016 but struggled in his five starts in 2017 to the tune of a 8.25 ERA and nine home runs allowed in just 24 innings. He’s been much better in 2018 and given his recent form and the matchup against an Orioles team that has a 25% K% this season against right-handed pitchers, I do think he’s worth some consideration. Just know that if the knuckleball isn’t dancing, things could go south quickly, so he’s not someone I would go all-in on.
Quick Breakdown: Wright is an option for your SP2 on today’s slate given the matchup against a strikeout heavy Orioles team.
| Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | 4.45 | 4.24 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 32.8% | 36.5% | 17.6% | |
| 2018 | 13 | 3.50 | 4.04 | 27.5% | 7.2% | 35.8% | 35.4% | 17.5% | |
| L14 | 3 | 2.99 | 2.45 | 29.4% | 4.7% | 38.9% | 38.2% | 20.0% | |
Bundy has faced this Red Sox team twice this season. He was fantastic in their first meeting (5.2 innings, 1 run, 6 strikeouts) but had mixed results in their last meeting (6 innings, 4 runs [including 3 homers], 8 strikeouts). The Red Sox have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and the highest team ISO in the majors (although that does include a lot of damage done by Mookie Betts). While Bundy possesses a fantastic 27.5% K%, this isn’t a good matchup on paper. Because we’re dealing with a shorter slate today I can see some merit to sprinkling in some shares of him in tournaments only, but it’s unlikely a strategy I will use.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy has great strikeout numbers but the matchup against the Red Sox neutralizes much of that upside. He has some appeal as a GPP dart throw due to the nature of the slate, but he’s not recommended outside of that.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.440 | 0.258 | 28.6% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 35.1% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,500 | LF | $10,600 |
| 2 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.365 | 0.271 | 37.4% | 3.9% | 19.5% | 43.9% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,400 |
| 3 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.487 | 0.468 | 0.397 | 52.2% | 9.5% | 21.4% | 44.9% | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $9,800 |
| 4 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.466 | 0.405 | 0.342 | 39.8% | 9.4% | 17.3% | 39.8% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $8,900 |
| 5 | Eduardo Nunez | RIGHT | 0.268 | 0.258 | 0.146 | 27.9% | 1.8% | 18.4% | 48.1% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.258 | 0.173 | 40.3% | 8.4% | 26.7% | 44.7% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 7 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.311 | 0.153 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 50.7% | SS | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 2B | $6,700 |
| 8 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.353 | 0.079 | 22.5% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 42.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,800 |
| 9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.374 | 0.130 | 35.8% | 11.1% | 24.2% | 44.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $5,700 |
| Team Averages | 0.364 | 0.359 | 0.217 | 34.2% | 7.8% | 18.7% | 43.7% |
Bundy has now allowed 16 home runs through 75.2 innings this season, and his 16.3% HR/FB ratio suggests it’s not a bad idea to hunt for homers against him. Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez look like elite options, while Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers make for nice secondary options. If you’re throwing together a Red Sox stack then it makes sense to include Mitch Moreland, but I don’t love his price across the industry and don’t envision using him as a one-off given there are other options at first base I prefer.
Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez
Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Baltimore
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jace Peterson | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.255 | 0.080 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 26.7% | 48.1% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B/3B | $2,800 | 2B | $5,900 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.366 | 0.227 | 36.4% | 2.2% | 18.5% | 39.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.280 | 0.288 | 33.1% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 34.5% | SS | $4,500 | SS | $5,100 | 3B | $10,000 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.365 | 0.127 | 45.3% | 4.0% | 24.0% | 41.5% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | DH | $6,400 |
| 5 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.213 | 0.187 | 0.172 | 20.9% | 0.8% | 26.2% | 47.8% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,300 |
| 6 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.273 | 0.225 | 0.041 | 31.8% | 8.1% | 36.3% | 47.7% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B | $2,800 | IF/OF | $5,400 |
| 7 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.262 | 0.122 | 34.8% | 10.1% | 22.6% | 48.2% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,700 |
| 8 | Chance Sisco | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.361 | 0.097 | 34.0% | 8.3% | 36.7% | 44.2% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 9 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.251 | 0.318 | 37.5% | 4.2% | 25.0% | 43.8% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 | RF | $5,600 |
| Team Averages | 0.324 | 0.284 | 0.164 | 33.4% | 6.6% | 25.9% | 43.9% |
I’ll be completely honest with you, I’m a bit torn on the Baltimore bats. Here’s my thought process – Wright has been in good form this season, and Baltimore has been putrid this season against righties. They own a team wRC+ of 81, are hitting just .223 as a team and have a 25% K% against right-handers. They also just got swept in a four-game series against the Blue Jays and their starting lineup just isn’t very scary. If you look at the BvP, however, some of these Orioles have had good success against Wright. Adam Jones is 4-for-16 with two home runs, Trey Mancini is 2-for-5 with two home runs, Jonathan Schoop is 5-for-12 with three home runs and Danny Valencia is 1-for-4 with a home run. Heck, even the woeful Chris Davis is 3-for-14 with a homer. I mention the BvP because the knuckleball is such a unique pitch that I take notice when batters have done well against it.
So here’s my recommendation – this is likely a stack ‘em up or avoid situation for me. If you feel this BvP is noteworthy and want to stack them with the hope they just start launching home runs, I don’t think it’s a bad idea. As of this writing I’m siding more with the Wright side than playing the Orioles because they’ve really been poor this season, and that’s why I’m giving them an Orange stackability rating.
Elite Plays – Manny Machado
Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop
Stackability – ORANGE
San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
| San Francisco | Miami | ||||||||||||||
 | Madison Bumgarner |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| SF -150 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.220 | 0.323 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.279 | 39.1% | 0.0% | 32.4% | 47.8% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.364 | 0.293 | 47.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 68.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.393 | 0.340 | 33.7% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 30.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Madison Bumgarner | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $10,400 | Salary: | $20,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | 3.94 | 3.32 | 22.4% | 4.4% | 40.8% | 35.0% | 16.9% | |
| 2018 | 1 | 2.91 | 3.00 | 12.0% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 18.2% | |
| L14 | 1 | 2.91 | 3.00 | 12.0% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 18.2% | |
The Giants welcomed back their ace last week after he missed the first nine weeks of the season with a finger injury. Bumgarner looked good in his first start against the Diamondbacks, throwing 82 pitches and allowing just two runs over six innings. I’d expect the Giants to continue being cautious as Bumgarner only made two rehab starts prior to this outing, but it’s possible we see him closer to 90+ pitches against the Marlins.
On paper this isn’t a scary matchup. Vegas seems to agree as the Marlins have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate. If there’s one knock, it’s that the Marlins don’t strike out much. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Marlins have just a 20.9% K%, which makes them the 9th hardest team to strike out. They also have the 3rd lowest team ISO so Bumgarner has that working in his favor. Factoring in that this doesn’t profile as a huge strikeout matchup and that he’s coming off an 82-pitch outing, it probably makes some sense to temper expectations just a bit. I do like his price on FanDuel at $8,800 so I would probably lean to that site specifically for my exposure.
Quick Breakdown: Bumgarner is in-play in all formats given the matchup against a weak Marlins offense, but I could see them being pesky enough to limit some of the strikeout upside. All things considered, I prefer Carlos Carrasco (which we’ll get to shortly) over Bumgarner.
| Wei-Yin Chen | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | 4.61 | 3.82 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 36.6% | 29.9% | 24.7% | |
| 2018 | 8 | 5.40 | 5.86 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 34.2% | 34.8% | 13.0% | |
| L14 | 3 | 4.56 | 4.73 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 41.5% | 36.6% | 17.1% | |
Chen has had some decent performances this season but his underlying numbers don’t inspire much confidence. He has a career-high 15% HR/FB ratio and a career-low 16.3% K%. If you’re going to YOLO punt with someone, do it with someone that has upside such as Ryan Yarbrough. There’s no need to consider Chen on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: I don’t see Chen as an option.
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorkys Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.275 | 0.151 | 36.1% | 6.9% | 31.0% | 40.6% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,300 |
| 2 | Buster Posey | RIGHT | 0.422 | 0.331 | 0.230 | 46.4% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 46.4% | C | $2,900 | C | $4,000 | C | $7,600 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.318 | 0.179 | 48.2% | 10.2% | 25.0% | 37.5% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,300 |
| 4 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.308 | 0.312 | 47.7% | 4.9% | 15.9% | 49.2% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,400 |
| 5 | Mac Williamson | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.280 | 0.357 | 18.2% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 45.5% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $6,100 |
| 6 | Brandon Crawford | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.399 | 0.234 | 35.6% | 8.2% | 22.4% | 40.7% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,500 |
| 7 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.349 | 0.045 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 41.2% | 3B | $2,200 | 1B/3B | $3,100 | 3B | $5,500 |
| 8 | Joe Panik | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.397 | 0.122 | 29.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 57.4% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,300 |
| 9 | Madison Bumgarner | LEFT | 0.109 | 0.109 | 0.000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | P | $8,800 | P | $10,400 | P | $20,200 |
| Team Averages | 0.327 | 0.307 | 0.181 | 43.4% | 8.3% | 21.7% | 50.9% |
Chen is allowing a .940 OPS to right-handed batters this season, so that would be my priority. Buster Posey, Mac Williamson, Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria all make for fine plays. Gorkys Hernandez is also an option to consider if he’s leading off, and he’s only $2,500 on FanDuel. If you decide to roll out a full stack, give Brandon Crawford consideration too. While it’s a lefty-on-lefty situation, he’s been mashing lately and has a .923 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. He batted .412 in the month of May and is 16-for-30 in the month of June, including a game-winning home run off Max Scherzer on Sunday. He’ll probably go overlooked with Lindor, Machado and Bogaerts all on this slate, but I like him a lot as a lower-owned tournament pivot.
I may be in the minority here and that’s okay, but the Giants are probably my favorite under-the-radar stack on Monday.
Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Mac Williamson
Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Gorkys Hernandez, Evan Longoria
Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW
Miami
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.348 | 0.118 | 44.2% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 44.2% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.404 | 0.395 | 0.164 | 50.0% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 54.0% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/OF | $3,600 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 3 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.399 | 0.233 | 43.5% | 9.1% | 21.2% | 43.5% | C | $3,500 | C | $4,000 | C | $7,200 |
| 4 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.323 | 0.315 | 0.078 | 29.8% | 16.9% | 22.1% | 48.9% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,700 |
| 5 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.302 | 0.093 | 31.1% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 40.9% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,900 |
| 6 | Lewis Brinson | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.331 | 0.167 | 23.8% | 3.5% | 21.1% | 53.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,700 |
| 7 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.230 | 0.135 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 25.5% | SS | $2,200 | 3B/SS | $2,900 | 2B | $5,500 |
| 8 | JT Riddle | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.311 | 0.333 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $5,800 |
| 9 | Wei-Yin Chen | LEFT | 0.228 | 0.051 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,000 | P | $4,700 | P | $9,500 |
| Team Averages | 0.346 | 0.298 | 0.147 | 36.6% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 51.2% |
Even though Bumgarner is still getting into mid-season form, I don’t want to go out of my way to pick on him as I still consider him one of the elite pitching talents in the majors. J.T. Realmuto and Starlin Castro are my favorite plays on this team, but I’m not going to force them into my lineups. Castro specifically has some interesting history against Bumgarner, as he’s 14-for-30 lifetime against him (although he’s never homered).
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto
Stackability – RED
Toronto at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Sam Gaviglio |  | Ryan Yarbrough | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TB -105 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.273 | 0.337 | 32.5% | 6.0% | 14.0% | 47.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.328 | 0.301 | 32.5% | 7.8% | 28.1% | 45.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.264 | 0.286 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 29.7% | 61.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.280 | 0.333 | 29.6% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 37.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Sam Gaviglio | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 13 | 4.96 | 4.36 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 49.4% | 31.5% | 15.7% | |
| 2018 | 4 | 3.54 | 2.51 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 54.4% | 28.8% | 22.5% | |
| L14 | 3 | 3.89 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 60.4% | 27.8% | 24.1% | |
Gaviglio has been surprisingly solid this season. He’s now scored at least 19 DraftKings points in three of his last four games (and 34 FanDuel points in three of his last four). More importantly, he was able to throw 104 pitches in his last game, so he appears to be fully stretched out. The Rays are a bottom-five team in terms of team ISO against right-handed pitching, so Gaviglio has a chance to keep on rolling in terms of run prevention, but the Rays are a below-average matchup in terms of strikeouts. As crazy as it sounds, I do think Gaviglio deserves some consideration for the SP2 spot. On a one-pitcher site like FanDuel it’s harder to recommend him because of the opportunity costs of choosing him over someone like Carlos Carrasco in a better stirkeout matchup.
Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio has been fairly good over the past month so I do think he deserves some consideration for the SP2, especially in this matchup against a Rays team that lacks power.
| Ryan Yarbrough | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $11,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3 | 3.81 | 3.68 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 39.0% | 30.2% | 22.1% | |
| L14 | 0 | 3.01 | 4.00 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 50.9% | 32.7% | 21.8% | |
With “starter” Ryne Stanek being used on Sunday in relief, the Rays will go ahead and start Ryan Yarbrough on Monday. While Yarbrough has been pitching out of the bullpen and coming in to relieve the starter, he’s thrown at least 92 pitches in his last four outings so he’s already stretched out. Yarbrough has been excellent this season and I’m curious to see how the industry treats him now that he’s listed as the starter. The Blue Jays just dropped 13 runs on the Orioles so I’m also wondering if recency bias will have DFSers scared to roster Yarbrough. I personally am not scared, and think Yarbrough and his 22.1% K% make for a nice play on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Yarbrough is on my list of SP2 options given his strikeout upside and low price tag.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teoscar Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.249 | 0.288 | 33.3% | 7.0% | 25.4% | 41.7% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,200 |
| 2 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.261 | 0.262 | 33.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 36.0% | 3B | $3,200 | 2B/3B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 3 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.389 | 0.135 | 26.8% | 12.5% | 21.6% | 50.0% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,700 |
| 4 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.503 | 0.109 | 42.9% | 9.4% | 24.5% | 45.7% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 5 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.295 | 0.189 | 38.7% | 3.8% | 17.5% | 33.9% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,400 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.301 | 0.029 | 26.1% | 16.7% | 26.2% | 56.5% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,700 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.268 | 0.059 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 38.5% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,300 |
| 8 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.250 | 0.318 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 17.9% | 42.9% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,700 |
| 9 | Gio Urshela | RIGHT | 0.529 | 0.182 | 0.375 | 50.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 66.7% | SS | $2,100 | 3B/SS | $2,700 | 3B | $5,800 |
| Team Averages | 0.346 | 0.307 | 0.161 | 32.8% | 9.1% | 20.8% | 45.8% |
Even though this is a smaller eight-game slate, I don’t have much interest in this Rays offense against Gaviglio. C.J. Cron and Wilson Ramos have enough power to take him deep so I suppose they are fine as one-offs, but I just don’t love this offense enough to want exposure to it.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos
Stackability – RED
Tampa Bay
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.232 | 0.084 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 19.6% | 46.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,400 |
| 2 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.402 | 0.198 | 35.2% | 4.9% | 22.2% | 46.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,500 |
| 3 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.318 | 0.111 | 36.3% | 6.4% | 21.0% | 50.4% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $5,900 |
| 4 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.403 | 0.150 | 39.4% | 7.3% | 20.4% | 54.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,700 | C | $7,700 |
| 5 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,600 | |||||||
| 6 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.353 | 0.110 | 31.4% | 4.4% | 19.1% | 45.1% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $5,600 |
| 7 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.352 | 0.148 | 34.4% | 6.7% | 24.4% | 37.9% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | CF | $6,500 |
| 8 | Willy Adames | RIGHT | 0.063 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 66.7% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,500 |
| 9 | Johnny Field | RIGHT | 0.218 | 0.206 | 0.186 | 30.6% | 1.4% | 29.7% | 44.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,300 |
| Team Averages | 0.269 | 0.304 | 0.123 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 24.6% | 49.0% |
Yarbrough will have to navigate around Teoscar Hernandez and Yangervis Solarte, who are the two proven batters in this projected starting lineup with ISOs over .260. Outside of those two, Yarbrough will have the benefit of the splits as many of these Blue Jays batters hit right-handers better. Russell Martin has some appeal as a punt catcher, so I’ll list him below. While the Blue Jays dropped 13 runs on Sunday and were one of my top stack options, I’m less intrigued by them on Monday.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Russell Martin, Yangervis Solarte
Stackability – ORANGE
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee | ||||||||||||||
 | Jose Quintana |  | Junior Guerra | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CHC-115 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.262 | 0.282 | 25.0% | 7.3% | 29.0% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.308 | 0.349 | 39.8% | 10.5% | 23.3% | 39.1% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.333 | 40.7% | 12.5% | 22.6% | 44.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.259 | 0.319 | 43.6% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 38.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jose Quintana | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $15,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 3.80 | 4.15 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 44.8% | 32.6% | 18.2% | |
| 2018 | 12 | 4.22 | 4.20 | 24.2% | 11.2% | 45.4% | 36.9% | 16.8% | |
| L14 | 3 | 2.95 | 3.38 | 34.4% | 9.4% | 45.7% | 36.1% | 25.0% | |
I’m viewing Jose Quintana as one of the elite tournament options on this slate. He has the second highest K% of all the pitchers throwing on Monday at 25.7% and he tossed a gem against these Brewers back in April, finishing with 32 DraftKings points. My biggest concern with Quintana is that this time, this game takes place in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Additionally, we have a larger sample of data to work with and the Brewers own just a 19.6% K% against lefties this season, which is among the lowest in the league. I’ll admit the price on a talent like Quintana is tempting, I’m just a bit scared about this ballpark and the strikeout upside. I don’t feel comfortable recommending him as an SP1 in cash games, but I do think he’s a terrific option in tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Because of the matchup and ballpark, I’m viewing Quintana more as an elite tournament option.
| Junior Guerra | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $13,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 14 | 5.23 | 5.12 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 33.5% | 33.5% | 18.5% | |
| 2018 | 11 | 4.13 | 2.83 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 38.9% | 41.6% | 18.1% | |
| L14 | 3 | 3.54 | 2.50 | 21.7% | 1.5% | 36.5% | 39.6% | 18.9% | |
Junior Guerra has been solid this season. But rather than dig into his numbers, I think it’s worth taking a step back and looking at this slate from a macro view. On DraftKings he’s $7,000, and I’d rather pay up for pitchers in better strikeout spots like Jack Flaherty ($8,300) against the Padres or Steven Wright ($7,200) against the Orioles. I would probably even rather pay down for someone like Ryan Yarbrough in a better ballpark at just $5,600. And on FanDuel, Guerra is $7,300 but Flaherty is just a few hundred more at $7,700. So when I view the slate with this lens, it’s harder for me to want to roster Guerra because of what the slate is giving me.
Quick Breakdown: There are other options priced above and below Guerra who I view as better options, so I plan on being underweight on Guerra.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.268 | 0.146 | 32.8% | 12.6% | 18.6% | 36.7% | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $4,900 | IF/OF | $9,400 |
| 2 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.353 | 0.147 | 32.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 37.4% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,500 |
| 3 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.365 | 0.344 | 0.173 | 32.6% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 44.2% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,200 |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.475 | 0.199 | 34.6% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 33.8% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,300 |
| 5 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.315 | 0.187 | 29.3% | 8.1% | 16.8% | 47.5% | C | $3,200 | C | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 6 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.414 | 0.297 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 23.8% | 46.9% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
| 7 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.240 | 0.060 | 32.0% | 10.0% | 24.7% | 38.9% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $5,500 |
| 8 | Ian Happ | SWITCH | 0.328 | 0.373 | 0.257 | 35.9% | 16.5% | 39.7% | 28.3% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 9 | Jose Quintana | LEFT | 0.085 | 0.113 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 36.8% | 87.5% | P | $8,500 | P | $8,100 | P | $15,900 |
| Team Averages | 0.324 | 0.322 | 0.163 | 32.8% | 11.0% | 21.0% | 44.6% |
Guerra has been pretty splits-neutral over his career, so for me I’d mainly just chase the power bats of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber. Guerra has only allowed 4 or more runs in two of his 10 starts this season so he’s been able to limit the damage. For that reason I’m not thrilled about the Cubs stack, but I completely get it because of the ballpark factors.
Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
Secondary Plays – Javier Baez, Ian Happ
Stackability – YELLOW
Milwaukee
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.316 | 0.261 | 35.7% | 14.8% | 7.4% | 28.6% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,400 |
| 2 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.447 | 0.123 | 38.6% | 7.8% | 21.9% | 58.1% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,700 | CF | $8,400 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.452 | 0.369 | 0.286 | 43.6% | 15.7% | 7.8% | 46.2% | OF | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,800 |
| 4 | Jesus Aguilar | RIGHT | 0.407 | 0.342 | 0.343 | 42.3% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 30.8% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $9,100 |
| 5 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.215 | 0.348 | 0.054 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 19.4% | 53.5% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,400 |
| 6 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.316 | 0.189 | 41.4% | 0.0% | 23.7% | 34.5% | OF | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 7 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.322 | 0.167 | 38.1% | 17.2% | 10.3% | 47.6% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,600 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.212 | 0.171 | 0.030 | 28.6% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 64.3% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,700 |
| 9 | Junior Guerra | RIGHT | 0.125 | 0.094 | 0.000 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | P | $7,300 | P | $7,000 | P | $13,600 |
| Team Averages | 0.311 | 0.303 | 0.161 | 36.0% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 44.1% |
This is a good ballpark to chase some home runs, but I do think it’s worth being a little cautious here considering Jose Quintana is a solid pitcher. Quintana also has some nice success against these Brewers, so I’m viewing the Brewers more as a stack for large-field tournaments as opposed to options I’d want in my cash games. Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun would be my favorite options, but this isn’t a spot I want to force them in because I respect Quintana.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain
Stackability – ORANGE
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET
| Cleveland | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | Lucas Giolito | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CLE-190 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.285 | 0.289 | 34.4% | 7.4% | 27.5% | 42.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.410 | 0.430 | 33.0% | 16.8% | 9.4% | 35.8% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.312 | 0.334 | 38.9% | 4.7% | 22.0% | 41.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.327 | 0.359 | 30.9% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 46.9% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Carlos Carrasco | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,700 | Salary: | $10,700 | Salary: | $20,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 3.35 | 3.29 | 28.3% | 5.8% | 45.2% | 29.3% | 19.4% | |
| 2018 | 13 | 3.58 | 4.23 | 24.4% | 5.9% | 41.6% | 37.0% | 11.9% | |
| L14 | 3 | 3.64 | 6.61 | 26.3% | 7.9% | 38.8% | 44.9% | 10.2% | |
Carrasco profiles as the top ace on Monday’s slate. He leads all pitchers in K% (27.2%), SS% (13.4%) and gets to face a White Sox team striking out 23.6% of the time against righties. I don’t love the ballpark, but Carrasco is still my top option for your SP1 in cash games and is firmly in-play for tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is my favorite choice for your SP1.
| Lucas Giolito | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $4,200 | Salary: | $8,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 16 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 16 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | 4.49 | 2.38 | 19.0% | 6.7% | 45.0% | 35.4% | 19.2% | |
| 2018 | 12 | 6.35 | 7.08 | 11.0% | 13.8% | 41.1% | 32.0% | 12.8% | |
| L14 | 3 | 6.12 | 9.45 | 6.4% | 7.9% | 41.5% | 37.7% | 7.6% | |
Giolito was once considered a promising prospect, but things haven’t looked promising this season. He has a microscopic 11% K% and a concerning 13.8% BB%. The Indians will likely be one of the top stacks on this slate (if not THE top stack) and for good reason considering how poor Giolito has been this season. Just look at all that red in the chart above.
Quick Breakdown: Giolito has struggled this season and now faces a tough matchup against a solid Indians offense. He’s a fade candidate.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.414 | 0.389 | 0.280 | 40.0% | 9.5% | 21.1% | 29.7% | SS | $4,400 | SS | $5,000 | SS | $10,000 |
| 2 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.443 | 0.459 | 0.246 | 46.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 43.7% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $4,800 | LF | $9,300 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.421 | 0.446 | 0.372 | 33.1% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 33.8% | 3B | $5,000 | 3B | $5,600 | IF/OF | $11,100 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.472 | 0.303 | 38.5% | 7.7% | 25.4% | 35.8% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $4,800 | 1B | $8,900 |
| 5 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.392 | 0.199 | 38.0% | 9.2% | 23.9% | 38.3% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,700 |
| 6 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.342 | 0.084 | 38.4% | 9.1% | 18.7% | 38.9% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,700 |
| 7 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.250 | 0.149 | 35.4% | 4.6% | 33.9% | 32.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,800 |
| 8 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.175 | 0.050 | 47.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 29.4% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,900 | RF | $5,900 |
| 9 | Greg Allen | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.370 | 0.161 | 40.9% | 7.4% | 26.5% | 43.9% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,400 |
| Team Averages | 0.367 | 0.366 | 0.205 | 39.7% | 9.2% | 20.3% | 36.2% |
The Indians likely will be chalky on Monday. In cash games you’ll want exposure to players like Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion (if he’s back in the lineup). Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall and Yan Gomes are more secondary options and a way to differentiate your stack if you’re playing tournaments and want to stack the bottom of the order instead. I haven’t decided what I will do on Monday for tournaments yet but if I hear all the buzz is on the Indians, I will at least consider stacking the lower-owned players or pivoting to other stacks at lower ownership. I would recommend keeping an eye on Gimino’s ownership projections. I’m going to list this as a green for stackability because it’s a great spot, but game theory will likely be important here too given we’re working with a smaller slate.
Elite Plays – Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion (if back in the lineup), Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago White Sox
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yoan Moncada | SWITCH | 0.386 | 0.259 | 0.225 | 43.6% | 10.6% | 34.1% | 32.3% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 2 | Yolmer Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.374 | 0.174 | 29.9% | 2.8% | 14.1% | 45.0% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
| 3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.409 | 0.305 | 0.212 | 37.6% | 6.1% | 16.2% | 40.9% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,300 |
| 4 | Daniel Palka | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.422 | 0.267 | 40.3% | 2.2% | 25.0% | 41.8% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,700 |
| 5 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.418 | 0.276 | 0.243 | 45.1% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 38.0% | 3B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 6 | Omar Narvaez | LEFT | 0.281 | 0.257 | 0.068 | 26.8% | 11.0% | 20.7% | 42.9% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,900 |
| 7 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.335 | 0.191 | 26.6% | 7.6% | 26.2% | 43.8% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,300 |
| 8 | Charlie Tilson | LEFT | 0.196 | 0.205 | 0.037 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 60.0% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,900 |
| 9 | Trayce Thompson | RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.251 | 0.100 | 17.1% | 6.3% | 29.7% | 29.3% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,500 |
| Team Averages | 0.328 | 0.298 | 0.169 | 31.8% | 7.3% | 22.7% | 41.6% |
With Carrasco likely to draw lots of ownership on this slate, the White Sox bats will likely be low owned. You could always make a case to stack against the top pitcher and play the ownership angle in tournaments, especially since this game is in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but that would be the only reason to be contrarian. Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu have enough power to consider as low-owned tournament options against Carrasco, but I don’t recommend a full stack here just for the sake of being contrarian.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
Stackability – RED
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.