MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-09 04:15:48

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Washington						Baltimore
			Gio Gonzalez						Kevin Gausman
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-105						9.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	26.4%	8.2%	18.9%	56.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	31.1%	6.4%	21.2%	38.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	33.4%	8.4%	23.1%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.363	30.9%	7.8%	21.5%	49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	6	4.53	1.64	21.5%	11.4%	44.6%	27.6%	26.7%

We have an interesting ten game slate on tap tonight. There are very few pitching options and we have a game in Coors Field, so it should be fun to make lineups. Gonzalez will be on the bump for the Nationals, after posting a 4.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% in his first six starts of the season. He has managed to limit hard contact against him, but we should see some regression in terms of his BABIP (.257) and left on-base percentage (92%). The Orioles are much better against righties than they are against lefties, but this is still a boom or bust type of matchup for Gonzalez, who is pitching on the road in an American League ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: When you factor in price, Gonzalez is a middling pitching option in this ten game slate.

Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	7	5.64	7.55	13.2%	11.8%	43.6%	30.4%	22.3%

Gausman only gave up one run in last start, but don’t get too excited; he only pitched one inning. He was ejected from the game after hitting Xander Bogaerts in what has quickly become a rivalry between the Orioles and Red Sox. It’s hard to pinpoint what is wrong with Gausman, but his numbers are down across the board this season. His strikeout rate is down 10%, while his walk rate is up 5%. The Nationals’ offense can put runs on the board in an instant, which makes Gausman an easy fade at home.

Quick Breakdown: There is nothing to like with Gausman tonight. He has bad form, a difficult matchup, and he’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

I was itching to write the Grind Down today, because I’ve added a new statistic to the projected lineup tables. We all know that wOBA is a good catch-all offensive statistic, but it accounts for a line drive that is caught and a line drive that just gets by an outfielder very differently. There is a new statistic called expected wOBA (or xwOBA) that is calculated the same way as wOBA, only it uses exit velocity and launch angles rather than if the ball actually went for a hit. Each batted ball is then assigned a hit probability. I’m really excited about this statistic because its goal is to help separate luck from hitter skill. Like the other stats in the projected lineup tables, the numbers are all from the 2016-17 seasons combined.

Kevin Gausman has been in terrible form to start the season. He nearly has as many walks as strikeouts and he currently owns an ERA of 7.55. The Nationals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they also get to utilize the DH in this series. Gausman has never allowed a ton of hard contact, but the Nationals should be considered one of the top offenses to target, given their collection of talent and the ballpark that they are playing in. We should give the right-handed hitters a small bump here, as Gausman has allowed a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Ryan Zimmerman is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate. He has scored at least 12 fantasy points (FD scoring) in 12 straight games, which doesn’t happen in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles may not hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but they have a few individual hitters that do. Manny Machado owns a .417 xwOBA with a .234 ISO and a 42% hard contact rate against lefties in the last two seasons. Joey Rickard and Trey Mancini also have good numbers against southpaws. This isn’t my favorite situation to stack, as Gio Gonzalez doesn’t get blown up very often, but we can pick and choose our spots with the Orioles’ lineup. They have the fourth highest implied run total in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Adam Jones (FD), Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Cleveland						Toronto
			Trevor Bauer						Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-115						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	37.5%	8.0%	24.6%	38.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	34.2%	7.4%	18.8%	60.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.327	29.3%	9.5%	18.5%	54.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	29.0%	5.2%	19.8%	59.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	28	4.22	4.26	20.7%	8.6%	48.7%	31.9%	19.0%
	2017	5	3.91	7.67	25.6%	9.9%	39.5%	41.0%	15.4%

Bauer has an ERA just under 8.00 and a strikeout rate over 25%. We rarely see that combination, as strikeout rate and ERA tend to have an inverse relationship. Bauer’s advanced stats show that he has been a little unlucky this season, but a hard contact rate of 41% is concerning. The Blue Jays have really struggled offensively, but seem to be slowly working their way out of it. Bauer has to face them on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Quick Breakdown: At his price point, there are better pitching options to target tonight. The high hard contact rate is cause for concern.

Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$18,300
	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	60.1%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	6	3.56	3.89	18.6%	6.2%	60.5%	30.8%	21.7%

Stroman is one of those pitchers that is never going to kill your lineups. He will rarely have a ten strikeout game (although he already has one this season), but he will rarely be the reason why you lose in DFS. He is a solid pitcher that relies on an elite ground ball rate and a high soft contact rate. While he is reliable, he doesn’t have the same upside as some of the high strikeout pitchers in this slate. Stroman’s strikeout rate is slightly below the league average and he is facing an Indians’ offense that is ranked fifth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: It’s hard to justify paying a premium for a pitcher that has a below-average strikeout rate, especially in a matchup against the Indians.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Even though Marcus Stroman feels a bit overpriced tonight, I don’t plan to have very much exposure to the Indians’ offense. Stroman induces one of the highest ground ball rates of any pitcher in baseball and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA in the last two seasons. If you are targeting any batters from Cleveland, make sure they have a low ground ball rate against right-handed pitching. We want to stay away from ground ball hitters facing ground ball pitchers whenever possible.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

This may be the first time all season that I have said this, but I have more interest in the Blue Jays’ offense than I do in the Indians’ offense. Trevor Bauer has allowed a 41% hard contact rate this season and historically, he hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. Even though Kevin Pillar doesn’t have the best numbers against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, he has really excelled in the lead-off spot for Toronto. He also adds some speed, which never hurts in the outfield. I sort of buried the lead here, as it sounds like Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki will be back in the lineup for tonight’s game. They immediately bolster the offense and defense and both make intriguing tournament plays, since most DFS players will be timid about using them in their first game back. Kendrys Morales is a perfect example of why I like using the new xwOBA statistic. In the last two seasons, he has the biggest difference between his wOBA and xwOBA. Basically, he has been extremely unlucky when it comes to batted balls. This is something that we sort of expected given his massive hard contact rate, but now the proof is in the pudding (xwOBA).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City						Tampa Bay
			Nathan Karns						Blake Snell
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TB -145						7.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	27.1%	13.9%	27.4%	37.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	30.8%	12.0%	27.8%	54.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.359	31.7%	7.2%	20.5%	49.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	31.9%	13.6%	21.9%	34.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Karns
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		13 of 20	Salary Rank:		13 of 20	Salary Rank:		13 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	15	4.23	5.15	24.2%	10.8%	40.3%	30.6%	18.7%
	2017	5	3.82	4.97	21.5%	8.3%	59.0%	27.4%	25.0%

Karns has had two good starts this season and they both came against the White Sox, who are ranked in the bottom five of basically every statistic against right-handed pitching. He has really struggled when facing good opponents and while the Rays may strikeout at a high rate, they have a lot of talent in their lineup. In fact, eight of their nine projected starters have at least a 32% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Karns may see a small strikeout bump in this matchup, but I see more risk than potential reward.

Quick Breakdown: As a sizable underdog on the road, Karns is a deep GPP flier at best in this slate.

Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		14 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	6	5.36	3.45	19.3%	15.0%	41.1%	32.6%	19.6%

It felt good to be right about Snell in his last start, but unfortunately, I didn’t roster him. The reason for liking Snell against the Marlins was the team’s low walk rate against lefties, which is why I have some interest in him again tonight. The Royals are ranked dead last in team wOBA and 28th in walk rate against left-handed pitching this season. Snell is getting love from the oddsmakers too, as he is a -145 favorite in a game with an over/under of 7.5 runs. If you want to get some exposure to Coors Field tonight and still want some upside from your cheap pitcher, Snell might be your answer.

Quick Breakdown: Snell has a great matchup at home against the Royals and he owns a strikeout rate close to 23% in his career. At this price point, he is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

As mentioned above, the Royals are basically a bottom three offense in every statistical category against left-handed pitching. Blake Snell doesn’t have great command, but outside of Lorenzo Cain, this is not a group of patient hitters at the plate. The Royals have three lefties in their lineup and only have two righties with at least a .330 wOBA against southpaws. Cain is a serviceable one-off target, but the rest of the Royals can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw an interesting matchup against Nathan Karns, who has some serious reverse-splits. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .359 wOBA with a 32% hard contact rate to righties. His numbers against lefties are a lot better, but he does have a massive 14% walk rate against batters from the left side of the plate. The Rays aren’t my favorite offense to stack on the board, but we can certainly look at a few one-off targets in their lineup. Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria (FD), Brad Miller (DK), and Logan Morrison all provide nice upside in tournaments at what should be low ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria (FD), Brad Miller (DK), Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees						Cincinnati
			Masahiro Tanaka						Rookie Davis
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-130						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.275	31.4%	3.9%	19.7%	52.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.472	21.7%	16.7%	16.7%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	32.8%	5.7%	20.2%	46.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.415	33.3%	10.0%	12.5%	37.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	31	3.79	3.07	20.5%	4.5%	48.2%	32.5%	18.5%
	2017	6	4.20	4.46	17.0%	6.5%	53.5%	30.4%	20.9%

Before his last start, I was drawn to Tanaka’s high swinging strike rate. A mark of 12.1% is the second highest that he has had in his career, but he isn’t getting them at the right time in the count. Opponents are swinging at stuff outside of the zone early in the count, but Tanaka hasn’t been able to deliver the knockout blow with two strikes as often as he used to. He is still a good pitcher in real life, but he may not have enough upside to warrant a play at his price point in DFS. While he does get to face the opposing pitcher tonight, he doesn’t see much of a ballpark bump, as Great American Ballpark is one of the best in baseball for hitting home runs.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t dislike Tanaka against a National League offense, he just seems a little too expensive for the upside that he brings to the table.

Rookie Davis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	4	5.72	7.36	14.5%	13.2%	37.3%	28.3%	15.1%

Every once in a while, we see a line from Vegas that makes absolutely no sense. Most of the time, Vegas turns out to be right. The fact that the Yankees are barely favored in a game where Rookie Davis is pitching is quite astounding. When we see lines like this, we should start to get a queasy feeling in our stomachs that something might not be right. I’m not saying that I will be targeting Davis tonight, but we may want to limit our exposure to the Yankees, even though they appear to be in the perfect situation.

Quick Breakdown: Davis has nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season and he is facing one of the best offenses in baseball.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

I’m not sure what to do with the Yankees in this spot. At first glance, I want to load up on their hitters against a bad fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. However, there is something about this Vegas line that just doesn’t feel right. I get that the Yankees are playing on the road and will be without the use of a designated hitter, but they are facing Rookie Davis and they only have the sixth highest implied run total in the slate. I’m still going to be targeting this lineup for home run upside, but the line makes me want to avoid a complete Yankees’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees aren’t getting a ton of love from the oddsmakers, but I have a hard time suggesting any of the Reds’ hitters in this spot. Tanaka holds runners about as good as anyone and he has held left-handed hitters to a .275 wOBA. The combination of those two things basically takes the two best fantasy options from the Reds out of play. Billy Hamilton will still try to run if he gets on base and Joey Votto can always succeed in a matchup against right-handed pitching, but I will be looking to fade both against Tanaka. Adam Duvall is actually my favorite target here, as he is a fly-ball hitter with good numbers against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall

Stackability – RED

St. Louis at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

St. Louis						Miami
			Carlos Martinez						Adam Conley
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			STL-110						8.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	33.8%	11.0%	19.9%	54.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	25.8%	7.8%	14.5%	46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	25.2%	6.2%	25.4%	57.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	34.4%	11.7%	22.8%	35.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$18,900
	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	31	3.97	3.04	21.5%	8.7%	56.4%	29.6%	19.1%
	2017	6	3.54	3.75	27.0%	9.4%	50.0%	31.3%	22.2%

Martinez has solid numbers through his first six starts, but it’s been a roller coaster ride so far. His strikeouts and walks have been all over the map. I expect him to be one of the highest owned pitchers in the slate, as he gets to face the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I have my reservations though, as Miami strikes out at a very low rate against right-handed pitching. Their current roster also has good numbers against Martinez, posting a .386 wOBA in 86 at bats.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez is firmly in play in all formats, but I may end up going cheaper at pitcher in order to afford more hitters from Coors Field.

Adam Conley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	25	4.64	3.85	21.2%	10.6%	38.2%	31.4%	20.5%
	2017	5	4.95	6.12	18.6%	11.5%	41.3%	35.9%	19.2%

Conley was a viable SP2 at home quite often last season, thanks to a strikeout rate over 21%. The strikeouts haven’t been there this season though, and his walk and hard contact rates are both up. The Cardinals may not have the most potent offense in baseball, but five of their projected starters have an xwOBA of at least .322 against southpaws. The Cardinals are also a very patient team at the plate, which isn’t great news for a pitcher that struggles with his command and walks 11.5% of the batters that he faces.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward with Conley. At this price point, I would much rather target Blake Snell against the Royals.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are not going to be a popular offense in this slate, despite drawing an exploitable matchup against Adam Conley. Everyone is going to look to the games with higher run totals, which makes St. Louis an interesting stack at the very least. Adam Conley hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has allowed a 34% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons. If Randal Grichuk moves up a spot or two in the lineup, he would become one of my favorite one-off targets in the slate. He owns a massive .246 ISO and a 38% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Carlos Martinez is dominant against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .254 wOBA and a 25% hard contact rate, while striking them out at a 25% clip and inducing a 57% ground ball rate. I love Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna as much as the next guy, but they should both be avoided tonight against Martinez. I will also be avoiding Christian Yelich, who has a 55% ground ball rate against right-handed pitching. I prefer to target Yelich when he is facing a fly-ball pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour

Stackability – RED

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