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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 5th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-05-05 19:09:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Cleveland NY Yankees
clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.326 32.5% 8.5% 24.9% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.313 27.5% 10.3% 21.8% 50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.309 36.2% 8.1% 27.7% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.330 30.5% 8.5% 21.6% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0%
2018 6 3.72 2.45 27.2% 9.5% 46.5% 34.3% 17.7%

If you’re playing an early slate on Saturday (or the Very Early slate on FanDuel), Trevor Bauer is your de facto ace on the slate. The biggest decision you’ll need to make is whether you want to pay for Bauer, who is arguably the best pitcher on this early slate, or fade him in case this powerful Yankees offense goes off. The Yankees have the 3rd highest ISO this season against right-handed pitching and a wRC+ of 111. The argument for Bauer is that the Yankees also have a 24.6% K%, sixth highest in the majors, and Bauer himself has a K/9 of 10.26, the highest it’s ever been in the majors. I know it’s risky but my personal stance is if I’m playing this early slate, I’m using Bauer and chasing his strikeout upside. If you feel that’s too risky, I would probably pair Tanner Roark and Luke Weaver on two-pitcher sites.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer has to face a powerful Yankees offense but has some of the best strikeout upside among the early-slate pitchers. Despite the blowup risk, I think he’s worth using in all formats in the early slate.

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.08 3.55 22.6% 8.4% 52.8% 28.0% 16.8%
2018 6 5.50 6.67 17.0% 14.1% 45.1% 34.8% 18.5%

Gray has struggled this early season, having only completed five innings in just two of his six starts. The Indians have a wRC+ of 100 against right-handed pitching and are league-average in terms of striking out, so this is a fairly neutral matchup for Gray. Gray does a .344 BABIP so perhaps he’s been unlucky so far, but he still has an alarming 14.1% BB%. I will admit Gray is cheap and he may draw some ownership based on name recognition alone, but I’d personally rather pursue other pitching options in the early slate over Gray.

Quick Breakdown: Gray has been struggling with walks and going deep into games. He’s cheap but I don’t love the matchup for him, so I’d rather look at other pitching options.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.357 0.388 0.237 33.0% 8.3% 14.2% 38.5% SS $4,800 SS $5,300 SS $10,300
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.309 0.355 0.159 33.6% 7.4% 19.9% 33.5% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.363 0.452 0.278 31.2% 10.2% 10.4% 37.5% 3B $4,300 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,500
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.379 0.427 0.206 39.3% 9.0% 11.9% 46.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.389 0.415 0.259 37.2% 12.4% 20.6% 34.1% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,000
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.392 0.371 0.235 36.4% 13.1% 21.9% 35.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.274 0.176 0.117 28.8% 10.3% 31.9% 50.9% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,900
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.302 0.281 0.139 37.6% 8.5% 34.2% 44.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
9 Erik Gonzalez RIGHT 0.314 0.314 0.202 29.4% 1.1% 24.2% 55.2% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,900 SS $5,900

Gray has been getting hit hard (33 hits in in 27 innings) although as I mentioned above, perhaps some of it has been bad luck given his high BABIP. Still, Gray’s 19 walks in 27 innings isn’t pretty, so I don’t mind a Cleveland stack here in case they can string together some runs against Gray. I will point out Gray has been very good about limiting home runs, so that’s why I prefer the stack as opposed to trying to pick one-offs and home run hunt. Gray has been fairly splits-neutral so there’s not necessarily one side of the plate I’d be focused on. Instead, I’d rather just stack the top of the lineup. Yonder Alonso is always the contrarian play over Edwin Encarnacion, or you can roster both on sites with a Utility option.

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.330 0.250 0.171 31.3% 11.5% 18.9% 44.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 LF $6,300
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.361 0.342 44.0% 16.3% 30.0% 35.8% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $9,700
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.324 0.386 0.263 29.1% 6.4% 11.9% 34.2% SS $4,400 SS $5,000 SS $10,200
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.370 0.347 0.293 37.7% 10.4% 27.9% 46.2% OF $4,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,500
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.383 0.442 0.249 36.9% 7.1% 22.8% 42.3% C $4,000 C $4,700 C $9,200
6 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.320 0.390 0.250 42.1% 5.2% 44.2% 36.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.411 0.383 0.297 43.1% 1.3% 22.4% 46.6% 3B $3,200 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.305 0.317 0.047 23.3% 7.0% 22.3% 46.3% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.320 0.306 0.103 29.2% 6.3% 18.8% 33.3% 2B $3,200 2B $3,500 SS $6,700

There is certainly a case to be made that you should chase the power-upside of these Yankees bats, but Bauer has really turned a corner over the past year. So far through his first 40.1 innings this season, he’s only allowed three home runs. I certainly won’t talk you off trying to home run hunt, but I don’t think I feel comfortable trying to stack against Bauer. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius are the power-bats I would look to, but I prefer using them as one-offs and hoping they hit a bomb as opposed to trying to pick on Bauer.

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius, , Gary Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Chicago Cubs St. Louis
cubsmlb Tyler Chatwood stlouismlb Luke Weaver
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-126 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.342 29.8% 14.5% 19.4% 57.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.291 23.5% 9.2% 24.1% 44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.322 26.9% 11.6% 19.7% 56.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.312 29.2% 7.0% 28.2% 49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Chatwood
tyler-chatwood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,300
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%
2018 5 5.49 2.83 22.1% 18.0% 52.2% 24.7% 17.8%

Chatwood’s sparkling 2.83 ERA is deceiving once you see his xFIP is 4.82 and his 18% BB%. He is coming off back-to-back solid outings and his strikeout rate is at an all-time high for him (22.1% K%), which likely has to do with him leaving Coors Field. Chatwood wouldn’t be on my radar for cash games as I worry about regression hitting him hard, but I do think he warrants tournament consideration on this short early slate.

Quick Breakdown: The underlying numbers for Chatwood are a bit concerning, but he has improved his strikeout rate and given the limited options on this early slate, Chatwood deserves tournament consideration on two-pitcher sites if you’re building multiple teams.

Luke Weaver
luke-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 3.29 3.88 28.6% 6.8% 49.4% 25.9% 19.1%
2018 6 4.42 5.17 22.2% 10.4% 43.2% 27.8% 17.8%

Luke Weaver has been incredibly frustrating to roster this season. After three solid outings to start the year, Weaver has now struggled in his last three outings, failing to go beyond 5.1 innings. He now has to face a Cubs team that scored six runs on him a few outings ago. For whatever reason, Weaver just unravels at certain points in the game and can’t recover from it. I can’t recommend Weaver for cash games on this early slate, but I think he makes for a fine tournament play given his ability to generate strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: Weaver has been in poor form but still possesses some of the better strikeout stuff on this early slate. He’s on my radar for tournaments for this reason alone.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.259 0.251 0.125 27.8% 3.5% 20.1% 51.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
2 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.299 0.364 0.230 30.7% 5.5% 28.3% 47.6% 2B $4,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,100
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.367 0.287 0.238 32.2% 13.1% 19.8% 39.1% 3B $4,600 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,000
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.403 0.319 0.216 34.4% 13.2% 12.7% 40.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,400 1B $8,200
5 Victor Caratini SWITCH 0.296 0.246 0.083 23.6% 5.2% 22.1% 65.5% C $2,100 1B/C $2,900 C $5,900
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.371 0.429 0.293 37.4% 11.6% 28.6% 41.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.289 0.210 0.156 31.7% 6.3% 22.2% 38.7% SS $3,000 SS $3,000 SS $5,500
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.349 0.348 0.147 27.9% 10.5% 11.2% 45.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 RF $5,700
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.154 0.272 0.033 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 66.7% P $8,000 P $8,800 P $17,300

Because of his tendency to have blowup innings, I do think we need to look at Cubs’ bats on this early slate. If you aren’t on Weaver and you think he loses his focus at some point in the game, the stack makes sense. I’ll also mention the team BvP against Weaver is 20-for-43, although it’s not a huge sample. The Cubs have been shifting around their order lately so it’s hard to predict where players will bat, but my preference would be the middle of the order guys of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. Javier Baez was moved down to the 8-spot on Friday against right-hander Miles Mikolas so keep an eye out whether that move sticks on Saturday. If Baez is down there again, I like him in tournaments as he may fly under the radar a bit as a lot of typical stacks focus on the top of the lineup.

Elite Plays – Javier Baez (GPP), Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.375 0.506 0.198 35.4% 13.1% 22.5% 50.3% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 CF $10,200
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.390 0.489 0.228 43.1% 17.7% 20.3% 24.7% 2B $3,500 2B/3B $3,700 3B $7,500
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.400 0.397 0.152 35.5% 8.9% 17.5% 47.4% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.370 0.349 0.241 41.2% 7.8% 22.3% 45.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,500
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.327 0.411 0.144 35.3% 5.0% 14.4% 45.5% C $3,300 C $3,800 C $7,300
6 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.356 0.331 0.233 36.2% 13.0% 21.3% 37.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.351 0.380 0.238 36.2% 3.8% 27.8% 31.6% SS $3,500 SS $4,300 SS $8,600
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.315 0.289 0.134 27.6% 9.5% 14.3% 47.2% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 2B $5,800
9 Luke Weaver RIGHT 0.143 0.169 0.000 0.0% 3.8% 46.2% 87.5% P $7,500 P $7,700 P $15,700

While I’m not in love with Chatwood, I’m also not in love with the Cardinals’ bats. Chatwood has only allowed one home run through 28.2 innings and he’s only allowing a 24.7% hard hit rate. If I’m playing anyone on the Cardinals it would be the left-handers of Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. You could also consider some of the right-handed batters who handle right-handed pitching well, such as Tommy Pham, Paul Dejong and Marcell Ozuna. But this isn’t a spot I really want to stack given Chatwood’s ability to limit home runs.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Paul Dejong (GPP), Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna (GPP), Tommy Pham (GPP)

Stackability – RED / ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-138 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.391 0.360 32.5% 11.3% 22.6% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.348 31.8% 9.7% 19.1% 40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.338 35.6% 7.8% 22.9% 37.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.290 24.8% 6.8% 23.9% 53.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2%
2018 6 3.69 5.70 25.6% 6.8% 34.1% 24.4% 15.6%

A case can be made for Vince Velasquez in tournaments. While his 5.70 ERA isn’t pretty, his xFIP is just 3.83. He also has a fantastic 25.6% K%. The problem with Velasquez this season is that he’s been getting punished by lefties, and the Nationals have two of the hottest lefties on the planet right now batting at the top of their lineup in Bryce Harper and Matt Adams. This Nationals offense has been clicking lately and that’s my biggest concern. I don’t mind Velasquez in tournaments because if he’s able to navigate around those two lefties, the rest of the Nationals lineup is either right-handed or features lefties who aren’t too imposing.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez has been getting torched by lefties but his strikeout rate is fantastic. I’d prefer using Velasquez in tournaments in case Harper and Adams get to him.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7%
2018 6 4.33 3.55 21.3% 8.7% 39.8% 32.0% 24.3%

Tanner Roark is never a sexy play, but he’s probably my favorite cash game pitcher on the early slate. The Phillies have the second highest K% against right-handers in the majors (26.3%), so while Roark isn’t a flame-thrower, the matchup is working in his favor to at least rack up some strikeouts. Roark’s biggest weakness is left-handers and the Phillies are also a mostly left-handed lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is viable in all formats and my favorite pitcher for cash games on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.316 0.419 0.117 22.8% 11.4% 21.5% 49.2% 2B $3,800 2B $3,900 2B $7,700
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.397 0.319 0.290 41.1% 15.2% 25.2% 29.5% OF $4,200 OF $4,800 1B $8,900
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.319 0.336 0.166 28.2% 6.7% 20.2% 41.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
4 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.329 0.440 0.220 36.1% 7.2% 28.0% 43.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 LF $7,600
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.388 0.330 0.203 35.2% 14.1% 16.9% 33.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,900
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.341 0.319 0.145 33.3% 6.5% 24.7% 31.4% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,300
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.317 0.382 0.177 29.6% 6.2% 16.0% 45.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.308 0.301 0.102 37.9% 14.4% 29.8% 56.9% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $5,000
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.132 0.071 0.000 13.3% 0.0% 28.6% 69.2% P $8,000 P $6,900 P $13,500

Roark’s biggest struggles are against left-handers, so that should be the priority if you decide to play the Phillies’ bats. Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez would be my targets. Rhys Hoskins should also be on our radars as a GPP dart-throw given his power but I would be more inclined to include him in a Phillies stack as opposed to a one-off.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.432 0.403 0.346 37.0% 19.0% 16.8% 37.0% OF $5,300 OF $5,800 RF $10,700
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.180 30.1% 7.8% 18.3% 52.0% SS $4,300 SS $4,900 IF/OF $9,400
3 Matt Adams LEFT 0.368 0.543 0.278 40.0% 7.9% 23.8% 36.0% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,100 1B $8,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.378 0.453 0.242 40.3% 6.7% 23.7% 46.0% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.364 0.198 32.4% 12.7% 13.6% 34.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
6 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.316 0.307 0.167 30.7% 4.7% 20.8% 59.0% 2B $3,400 2B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.295 0.318 0.186 31.9% 7.8% 31.4% 44.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.217 0.168 0.050 11.9% 10.1% 26.1% 38.1% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,600
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.130 0.083 0.019 14.6% 1.6% 32.3% 81.8% P $9,000 P $8,500 P $16,300

Update 2:21pm EST – Ryan Zimmerman has been scratched and Matt Wieters is out of the lineup. The Nationals are getting Anthony Rendon back and Andrew Stevenson is drawing a start and batting 5th. Adding Stevenson as a secondary play given his lineup spot, fair salary and the platoon-advantage.

The Nationals have been on fire offensively lately and a stack is definitely in-play on the early slate. The left-handers should be given priority, so that would be Bryce Harper and Matt Adams. Matt Wieters and Wilmer Difo will also have the platoon-advantage on Velasquez but are secondary plays for me. I will say that I have been including Difo in my Nationals stacks lately because I love the wrap-around stack. Difo has Bryce Harper behind him in the leadoff spot protecting him, which has benefited him greatly. If you do decide to roll out the full stack, you need to consider Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick and Ryan Zimmerman (on sites where you can use him in the Utility spot along with Adams).

Elite Plays – Matt Adams, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Difo, Howie Kendrick, Andrew Stevenson, Trea Turner

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at Kansas City – 4:15 PM ET

Detroit Kansas City
detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann kansascitymlb Jason Hammel
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -138 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.357 41.4% 6.2% 16.7% 30.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.350 33.1% 6.8% 17.9% 34.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.369 38.6% 5.9% 14.7% 35.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.349 33.1% 5.7% 16.2% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 5.22 6.08 14.5% 6.2% 33.2% 39.5% 13.4%
2018 6 3.80 5.81 23.7% 5.3% 30.9% 43.2% 19.8%

Zimmermann’s 23.7% K% is nice, but his 43.2% hard hit rate is scary. Zimmermann has had some solid outings this season and is coming off one against the Rays, but I just don’t trust him at this point in his career. While Zimmermann will be up against a weak Royals lineup that has just a wRC+ of 86 against right-handed pitching, they also have the lowest K% against right-handers in the majors so I question the upside of Zimmermann in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann hasn’t been as bad as he was last year, but the matchup against a contact-heavy Royals lineup combined with the fact he has a 43.2% hard hit rate is enough for me to pass on him.

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.65 5.29 18.0% 6.0% 38.0% 31.6% 16.6%
2018 6 5.29 4.91 12.0% 7.6% 44.9% 40.2% 11.8%

I can’t believe I’m saying this because I almost never roster the guy, but Jason Hammel has some appeal if you’re building multiple lineups. Just hear me out before you stone me for my comment. Hammel recently threw a complete-game against these Tigers. The Tigers are without Miguel Cabrera and are predominantly a right-handed heavy lineup. Hammel hasn’t struck out more than five in any of his starts this season so you’re really banking on run-prevention and having him go deep into the game. On this short early slate I don’t think he’s the craziest play given the matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Hammel deserves some consideration in all formats if you’re building multiple teams for the early slate because he’ll be facing a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup missing Miguel Cabrera. He lacks strikeout upside so you’re hoping for run prevention.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.327 0.432 0.148 30.3% 6.9% 23.0% 35.6% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.341 0.377 0.196 30.7% 9.6% 20.2% 44.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 3B $7,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.371 0.385 0.182 43.1% 6.1% 22.8% 35.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 IF/OF $7,700
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.376 0.335 0.135 43.5% 8.9% 13.7% 38.0% C $2,200 1B $2,800 1B $5,700
5 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.294 0.396 0.128 35.9% 5.1% 34.8% 44.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.318 0.397 0.168 34.9% 5.8% 24.4% 46.7% C $2,700 1B/C $3,300 C $6,800
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.305 0.323 0.113 36.4% 5.4% 24.4% 40.3% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.262 0.287 0.115 27.5% 3.7% 15.1% 51.2% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $4,500
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.305 0.326 0.094 35.2% 5.9% 17.8% 52.4% 2B $2,500 2B $2,500 SS $4,600

Without Miguel Cabrera, this lineup is fairly ugly. Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario and Nick Castellanos make a nice mini-stack, but the rest of this lineup gets ugly fast and will likely be without the platoon-advantage against Hammel (outside of Victor Martinez). While I’m not a huge fan of Hammel, this Tigers lineup is one I’ll likely try to avoid for the most part.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Leonys Martin

Stackability – RED

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.317 0.342 0.145 31.1% 4.9% 14.2% 38.4% 2B $3,600 2B $4,100 IF/OF $8,500
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.291 0.417 0.083 31.7% 14.1% 28.9% 41.8% OF $3,700 OF $3,800 RF $7,700
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.381 0.441 0.282 35.9% 6.5% 14.8% 31.5% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 3B $8,600
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.347 0.378 0.223 38.8% 3.4% 18.1% 33.4% C $3,500 C $3,700 C $7,500
5 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.289 0.292 0.086 30.3% 7.2% 20.5% 43.7% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,900
6 Jon Jay LEFT 0.322 0.284 0.086 29.5% 7.4% 17.9% 47.8% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 CF $5,900
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.277 0.359 0.095 27.7% 2.4% 15.1% 41.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $5,400
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.294 0.413 0.132 33.6% 6.9% 24.4% 41.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 LF $6,500
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.266 0.217 0.083 24.2% 6.4% 22.2% 30.8% C $2,300 C $2,300 C $4,700

Update 2:23pm EST – Lucas Duda is in the lineup but Whit Merrifield is out, so updating my article to reflect that

I doubt the Royals’ offense will get much attention on this early slate with offenses like the Cubs, Yankees, Nationals and Indians on the slate, but I think some of these Royals’ bats may be sneaky against Jordan Zimmermann. Vegas also thinks highly of the Royals. Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda will hold the platoon-advantage and are my favorite options, while Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield deserve consideration if you’re rolling out the Royals stack. Jorge Soler has also been on fire lately, riding a 10-game hitting streak. The Royals are probably my favorite under-the-radar stack on the early slate.

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Toronto Tampa Bay
torontomlb Aaron Sanchez tampabaymlb Jake Faria
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -105 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.365 32.7% 15.2% 17.2% 52.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.350 30.0% 18.4% 20.1% 46.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.370 28.4% 8.4% 12.9% 50.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.319 36.2% 4.3% 24.4% 32.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3%
2018 6 5.04 4.06 15.4% 11.1% 55.8% 31.0% 19.5%

This game is on the FanDuel early slate but exists on DraftKings as a one-game Showdown game, so just keep that in mind. The matchup on paper may look appealing against the Rays, but the Rays actually have been fairly average against right-handers this season. Sanchez is not a big strikeout pitcher and only has a 15.4% K% rate this season, which is below is career average. I’m okay with Sanchez in cash games given this isn’t a daunting matchup on paper and one where I could see him cruising along, but I prefer the upside of the pitcher on the other side of this game for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez has some appeal in cash games when factoring in the matchup against an average Rays team, but his limited strikeout upside makes me prefer looking elsewhere for tournaments.

Jake Faria
jacob-faria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.26 3.43 23.5% 8.7% 38.3% 31.2% 19.8%
2018 6 4.90 4.60 20.8% 12.0% 33.7% 42.2% 14.5%

Faria has the much tougher matchup in this game as the Blue Jays have the highest team ISO in the majors against right-handed pitchers, but this is also a team that may not be at full strength. I do think Faria warrants both cash game and tournament consideration because of his strikeout upside. Faria also throws his slider about 22% of the time, which has been a pitch the Blue Jays have struggled against this season.

Quick Breakdown: Faria should be on your radar in all formats because of his strikeout ability but the Blue Jays possess plenty of power against right-handed pitchers, so proceed with some caution.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.353 0.382 0.249 35.4% 15.4% 23.7% 31.4% OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.386 0.365 0.268 35.2% 15.3% 23.0% 42.0% 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.322 0.398 0.205 31.8% 7.9% 13.6% 38.3% 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.429 0.457 0.350 39.5% 7.0% 26.4% 37.2% OF $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.311 0.404 0.142 27.6% 5.4% 15.9% 44.1% OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.355 0.293 0.180 36.0% 8.0% 21.9% 46.7% 1B $2,400 N/A N/A
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.343 0.361 0.187 30.5% 13.3% 21.8% 51.6% C $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.410 0.330 0.121 32.0% 2.9% 23.5% 32.0% OF $2,400 N/A N/A
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.288 0.264 0.178 26.9% 3.5% 13.2% 45.8% SS $2,300 N/A N/A

Keep an eye on whether Curtis Granderson is in the lineup. He was pulled from Friday’s game early because of his hamstring and while it doesn’t sound serious, it’s possible they hold him out on Saturday to give him a breather. Justin Smoak is also away from the team and is expected back on Sunday.

Josh Donaldson clubbed two home runs in Thursday’s double-header and appears to be healthy again, making him a fine option here. With Smoak and Pearce out, and Granderson looking iffy, Faria might be facing a watered-down version of this Blue Jays offense. There’s definitely some off-one power you can chase with guys like Donaldson and Teoscar Hernandez, but I prefer a mini-stack here as opposed to a five or six man stack. Yangervis Solarte and Kevin Pillar both hit right-handed pitcher better too, so you can consider them in a mini-stack. I will also mention that Aledmys Diaz has now homered in back-to-back games and could be heating up, but he’s only worth considering as a salary-saver if you’re playing the Showdown game.

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.342 0.379 0.179 28.5% 8.5% 12.5% 41.8% OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.338 0.370 0.173 35.0% 5.0% 25.1% 34.6% 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.321 0.240 0.093 24.4% 5.3% 22.8% 46.3% 3B $2,600 N/A N/A
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.330 0.349 0.138 36.7% 16.0% 26.8% 46.9% 1B $2,600 N/A N/A
5 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.301 0.412 0.106 32.4% 11.6% 27.9% 50.0% 2B $2,900 OF $2,000 LF $3,900
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.346 0.279 0.211 40.4% 7.6% 29.8% 38.2% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.299 0.302 0.184 40.3% 7.1% 17.9% 54.8% 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.332 0.498 0.188 33.9% 5.1% 17.6% 52.7% C $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.297 0.332 0.125 36.5% 3.6% 19.0% 49.2% SS $2,800 N/A N/A

Throughout his career, Sanchez has been phenomenal at generating ground balls, and this season has been no different as he’s sporting a 55.8% GB%. Because of this pitch type, I try to avoid stacking against him. The left-handed bats of Denard Span, Brad Miller, Joey Wendle and Mallex Smith ayers/mallex-smith-17609 are interesting, but they also aren’t power hitters. I would mostly consider Span as a one-off if he were leading off and I don’t mind a GPP dart throw of C.J. Cron for his power-upside.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Denard Span

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS