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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 26th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-08-26 16:09:09

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Philadelphia at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Philadelphia Toronto
philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.315 33.5% 1.44 24.2% 39.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.310 26.2% 1.17 17.8% 25.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.288 31.9% 0.44 28.0% 39.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.367 0.373 34.1% 1.96 17.3% 23.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2% 93.9 9.1%
2018 24 3.95 4.06 26.1% 9.6% 39.4% 32.7% 16.1% 93.9 11.4%
L14 2 5.99 5.68 16.7% 16.7% 47.4% 26.3% 10.5% 93.5 7.4%

Vince Velasquez has been solid this season for the Phils. The right-hander boasts a 26.1% strikeout rate on the season along with a respectable SIERA of 3.95. The walk rate nearing 10% is a tad high, and today he gets a negative league shift going into the AL to take on the Jays. He has also been in wobbly form of late, and he doesn’t come with the longest leash. There is some strikeout upside against Toronto (10th-highest K-rate vs. RHP), and Velasquez is a nice value. He’s volatile, however, and there are enough decent cheap pitching options on this slate to where Velasquez is little more than a GPP flier.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is a deep tournament dart on this slate.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4% 89.9 10.9%
2018 22 5.20 4.88 17.5% 7.3% 24.4% 30.7% 19.4% 88.8 10.2%
L14 3 5.52 6.23 17.3% 8.0% 18.5% 37.5% 19.6% 87.9 13.5%

Marco Estrada has seen his strikeout skills diminish a bit this season. The veteran’s strikeout rate has dipped about 4% to 17.5% so far in 2018, and his 5.20 SIERA is even worse than his 4.88 ERA. Estrada is a reverse splits fly ball guy, and he gives up his fair share of home runs as a result. Estrada has been taken deep 21 times already this season, and the Phillies lineup on the other side today has some power. The Phillies also have the third-highest team strikeout rate in the league against righties, which bodes pretty well for Estrada here. I don’t think this is a necessary plunge in cash games, but Estrada is an okay cheap SP2 in GPPs.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada isn’t the worst punt, but he’s far from a core play on this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Estrada isn’t horrible, but he’s a homer-prone righty facing a decent Phillies offense adding a DH to the lineup today. None of the Philly hitters looks like an absolute must here, but Rhys Hoskins stands out as an elite option. Wilson Ramos and Maikel Franco also carry some upside in tournaments. Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams make sense as parts of your stacks. I don’t think Phillies are all that necessary in cash games here, but I’d have some PHI stacks in GPPs against Estrada.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.316 0.124 22.9% 13.9% 21.6% 41.4% 2B $2,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.375 0.266 37.2% 11.3% 25.3% 29.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.382 0.212 33.0% 8.2% 22.5% 42.6% OF $2,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
4 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.355 0.234 42.5% 7.2% 21.8% 39.8% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,800 SS $7,600
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.366 0.170 34.9% 18.9% 16.6% 39.0% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,700
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.358 0.170 43.5% 7.6% 20.3% 55.3% C $2,800 C $4,500 C $9,000
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.330 0.223 27.3% 5.3% 14.2% 51.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
8 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.301 0.190 25.4% 7.2% 20.3% 40.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
9 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.269 0.086 22.6% 2.8% 11.1% 62.1% OF $2,300 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
Team Averages 0.339 0.186 32.1% 9.2% 19.3% 44.6%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

Vince Velasquez has been tough on his fellow righties this season, but left-handed hitters have a .332 wOBA and 10 home runs against him. The Jays do have some left-handed power to throw his way. Kendrys Morales kept his dong train going on Saturday, and he’s a fine enough option here. Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson and Billy McKinney also profile well here. Right-handed hitters aren’t as necessary against Velasquez. Toronto is a team that rarely garners much ownership, which makes a stack of their lefties all the more appealing, especially in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.354 0.188 41.7% 11.1% 22.2% 50.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 LF $6,500
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.319 0.122 30.8% 5.4% 20.7% 54.7% 2B $2,200 2B $3,300 2B $6,800
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.406 0.250 38.5% 16.3% 25.7% 31.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.438 0.231 46.0% 12.4% 19.4% 43.8% 1B $3,800 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.341 0.175 34.5% 3.9% 20.1% 35.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
6 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.368 0.208 31.7% 1.0% 21.4% 40.5% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,900 2B $7,200
7 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.264 0.238 25.0% 4.2% 8.3% 35.0% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,800
8 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.354 0.211 39.1% 7.4% 29.9% 36.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.349 0.190 34.0% 3.2% 12.0% 42.1% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,300
Team Averages 0.355 0.201 35.7% 7.2% 20.0% 41.0%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Kevin Gausman miamimlb Pablo Lopez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-163 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.334 29.2% 1.19 19.2% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.327 31.7% 0.66 21.5% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.353 35.9% 1.41 18.7% 49.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.339 35.4% 2.10 16.8% 52.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2% 95.0 10.9%
2018 25 4.17 3.99 18.9% 6.0% 47.6% 32.9% 18.1% 93.7 10.8%
L14 3 3.95 1.23 18.3% 4.9% 50.8% 38.1% 15.9% 93.5 8.8%

Kevin Gausman hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his 4 starts as a Brave, so he’s apparently enjoying his shift into the National League. The right-hander has a 4.17 SIERA on the season alongside an 18.9% K-rate and a 6% walk rate. Gausman has kept the ball on the ground pretty well (47.6%) and the hard-hit rate against him (32.9%) isn’t bad. Gausman gets a positive park shift going into Miami today to face the weak Marlins offense today. Both of these are good things. The Fish may not whiff as much as we’d like, but Gausman is affordable and the Marlins don’t hit home runs. He’s rarely a fun roster, but Gausman is an elite play today.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is an excellent play at his price point.

Pablo Lopez
pablo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 9 4.04 4.42 19.1% 5.9% 50.0% 33.5% 18.0% 92.5 11.1%
L14 2 4.42 4.76 17.3% 5.8% 36.8% 39.5% 18.4% 92.3 14.1%

The Marlins have an underrated starting rotation that tends to benefit from pitching at Marlins Park. Pablo Lopez is no different. The rookie’s 4.04 SIERA is a bit better than his 4.42 ERA this season. His strikeout rate of 19.1% isn’t anything special, but he has a solid 50% ground ball rate and he’s kept the hard contact against him (33.5%) in check. Lopez will face the same overrated Braves offense that was just dominated by Dan Straily and Wei-Yin Chen in the last 2 games. The right-hander also remains laughably cheap, and spacious Marlins Park helps make up for his lack of strikeout upside.

Quick Breakdown: Lopez is an elite play in all formats today.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

I’m a big fan of Lopez in this spot, which means I don’t see much reason to go crazy with Atlanta hitters against him. Ronald Acuna is an option here given Lopez’ apparent reverse splits, but he’s expensive and this is a horrendous park for bats. Lopez is also a pretty good pitcher, so forcing Braves hitters on this slate feels like a complete waste. Fading Atlanta’s offense is the way to go today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.409 0.290 49.3% 7.4% 27.3% 40.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,300 LF $9,800
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.296 0.125 29.7% 6.9% 12.8% 44.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.418 0.181 44.0% 12.9% 16.5% 35.0% 1B $4,100 1B $4,700 1B $9,100
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.387 0.168 40.9% 10.0% 9.5% 40.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.314 0.146 36.3% 11.7% 20.1% 49.5% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $4,000 3B $7,500
6 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.301 0.191 35.0% 4.7% 18.1% 37.6% 2B $3,400 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.314 0.059 45.9% 7.8% 24.8% 39.8% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,900
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.281 0.156 34.2% 6.5% 23.5% 43.2% SS $2,500 SS $4,000 SS $7,500
9 Kevin Gausman RIGHT 0.211 0.000 0.0% 15.4% 30.8% 85.7% P $8,400 P $8,100 P $15,900
Team Averages 0.326 0.146 35.0% 9.3% 20.4% 46.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna (GPP), Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Miami

The Marlins are a bad offense facing a decent pitcher in Kevin Gausman today. Gausman can get blown-up on occasion, but it’s hard to imagine the Marlins inflicting much damage against him today. This is the worst game of the day for hitting. Just play the pitchers and ignore the bats here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.338 0.024 34.2% 10.6% 8.5% 51.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.368 0.211 39.3% 6.4% 17.7% 42.7% C $3,200 C $4,400 C $8,400
3 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.342 0.109 38.1% 6.9% 17.6% 54.2% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.325 0.121 37.1% 6.7% 18.6% 49.7% 2B $2,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
5 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.325 0.158 36.8% 6.1% 23.8% 40.7% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,300
6 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.483 0.333 50.0% 5.3% 10.5% 43.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,700
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.313 0.174 34.3% 5.8% 20.9% 47.8% SS $2,200 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.163 0.016 20.0% 0.0% 24.2% 57.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
9 Pablo Lopez RIGHT 0.155 0.000 0.0% 5.9% 47.1% 66.7% P $6,600 P $6,200 P $11,900
Team Averages 0.312 0.127 32.2% 6.0% 21.0% 50.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
bostonmlb Nathan Eovaldi tampabaymlb Blake Snell
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -114 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.336 34.3% 1.29 18.2% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.186 0.262 35.6% 0.53 32.2% 48.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.284 34.4% 1.47 22.0% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.299 33.6% 1.03 28.6% 42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi
nathan-eovaldi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 15 3.88 3.81 20.1% 3.5% 45.4% 34.4% 19.9% 97.0 9.9%
L14 3 4.93 6.23 10.0% 4.3% 49.2% 38.3% 18.3% 96.9 5.7%

Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound today in a #RevengeGame against the team with which he has spent the majority of the season. In all, the right-hander has a 20.1% strikeout rate on the season, and his 3.88 SIERA validates his 3.81 ERA. Eovaldi gets a considerable park upgrade going from Fenway into the Trop, plus he’s decently priced. The Rays aren’t an awful offense, and they’re about league average (22.1%) when it comes to whiffing against right-handed pitching on the season. There isn’t much not to like about the combination of Eovaldi’s skills and the matchup, which puts him squarely in play today.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is a solid option on the main slate.

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,200
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 32.9% 18.8% 94.3 10.8%
2018 24 3.54 2.07 29.4% 9.4% 43.8% 34.0% 19.0% 95.6 13.9%
L14 3 1.80 0.56 41.8% 3.6% 48.3% 33.3% 23.3% 96.5 18.3%

Blake Snell is the most expensive option on the board today and it isn’t all that close. The southpaw has been quite good this season, as evidenced by his excellent 29.4% strikeout rate. His 3.54 SIERA is quite high compared to his 2.07 ERA, which should regress. Still, a 3.54 SIERA is impressive. Snell has still walked 9.4% of hitters he’s faced, which is high, but it’s also a marked improvement compared to his previous big league seasons. The problem today is that he’s super expensive and he faces the Red Sox today. Boston is a lineup that doesn’t strike out (second-lowest K-rate vs. LHP in 2018) and has no shortage of pop. The park favors Snell here, but it’s just completely unnecessary to pay all the way up for him in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Snell could be fine today, but the upside in the matchup is lacking. Paying up for a guy facing the Red Sox is an unnecessary risk.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Snell has been really effective this season, but he’s still a lefty with a wide platoon split. Right-handed hitters have accounted for 12 of the 14 dingers he’s served up this season, and the Red Sox happen to have a couple of pretty good ones. You aren’t getting Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez at a discount today, but both figure to be low-owned, so they’re viable in GPPs. Snell is a good pitcher and this is a pitcher-friendly park, so my interest in the rest of the Red Sox bats is minimal today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.487 0.400 46.3% 16.4% 12.9% 39.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.285 0.186 23.8% 7.3% 24.2% 46.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
3 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.472 0.288 35.6% 9.6% 16.9% 37.3% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.404 0.202 45.2% 8.0% 27.4% 43.8% OF $5,000 OF $5,500 RF $10,100
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.372 0.150 37.7% 17.5% 19.6% 34.4% SS $4,000 SS $4,500 SS $9,400
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.278 0.067 27.5% 5.5% 11.8% 34.1% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 2B $6,700
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.316 0.076 27.5% 5.4% 13.4% 50.0% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $3,300 2B $6,500
8 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.213 0.025 14.8% 7.0% 30.2% 33.3% C $2,200 C/OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,700
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.272 0.067 29.1% 4.1% 34.7% 65.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
Team Averages 0.344 0.162 31.9% 9.0% 21.2% 42.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 13 total homers across his 15 starts, and lefties have a .330 wOBA against him. Again, though, this is a bad ballpark for hitting and the Rays don’t really boast many appealing hitters to begin with. Kevin Kiermaier, Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle are decent left-handed hitters in the lineup, but I’d rather play Eovaldi than load up on Rays against him today. Other than a stack in tournaments, the Rays aren’t really on my radar here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.327 0.134 36.0% 5.8% 19.0% 47.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,300
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.314 0.079 28.5% 6.3% 15.7% 53.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.353 0.207 42.7% 14.8% 25.2% 44.7% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,500
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.347 0.161 47.9% 9.8% 25.8% 51.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.384 0.230 47.1% 10.6% 27.4% 43.5% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.268 0.099 33.1% 7.0% 23.6% 51.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 CF $6,300
7 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.300 0.163 29.9% 8.7% 26.2% 44.8% SS $3,400 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,400
8 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.199 0.031 31.6% 8.3% 36.1% 47.4% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $2,900 2B $5,900
9 Michael Perez LEFT 0.301 0.100 39.0% 3.8% 18.9% 36.6% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $6,000
Team Averages 0.310 0.134 37.3% 8.3% 24.2% 46.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Wendle, Kevin Kiermaier, Ji-Man Choi

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb Michael Kopech detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-106 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.295 0.0% 0.00 28.6% 25.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.315 34.0% 1.41 20.3% 36.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.282 0.0% 0.00 66.7% 0.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.325 38.4% 1.85 21.1% 31.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Kopech
michael-kopech-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 1 1.91 0.00 40.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.8 11.5%
L14 1 1.91 0.00 40.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.8 11.5%

Michael Kopech had his big league debut unfortunately cut short last week by a lengthy rain delay. The highly-rated prospect racked up 4 strikeouts through his 2 scoreless innings of work against the Twins, and today he’ll look to go deeper against the Tigers. It was only 2 innings, but it was encouraging to see Kopech escape without issuing a walk. Control problems have plagued him at times in the minors, but the strikeout upside is unquestionable. Kopech had a strikeout rate over 31% on the year at Triple-A. Detroit ranks 14th in the league in K-rate against righties this season, but the lineup is also largely devoid of power. The problem here is the price tag. I like Kopech’s upside for tournaments, but I think you can get away with cheaper pitching in cash games on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Kopech is an okay play, but the price tag is a little steep today.

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 5.22 6.08 14.5% 6.2% 33.2% 39.5% 13.4% 92.2 8.1%
2018 18 4.06 4.18 20.7% 4.2% 34.3% 36.1% 17.9% 91.2 9.5%
L14 3 4.59 3.63 13.0% 1.3% 42.4% 40.9% 10.6% 90.8 8.4%

After moonlighting as a gas can for several years, Jordan Zimmermann has looked a bit more normal so far this season. His 20.7% strikeout rate is about average, while his 4.06 SIERA is quite a bit better than the 5.22 mark we saw last season. The hard contact rate of 36.1% he’s allowed is a little high, and his fly ball tendency leads to some dongs. We know the White Sox aren’t a scary offense, especially without Jose Abreu, but Zimmermann always carries all sorts of downside. There’s no reason to fork over the funds necessary to roster him today.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann isn’t worth playing on this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jordan Zimmermann has been better this season, but he’s still a pitcher that allows plenty of fly balls and a decent amount of hard contact. His splits have also been fairly neutral over the course of his career, so hitters of either handedness make sense here. Yoan Moncada has been terrible lately, but he’s cheap and typically carries upside. You can say all of the same things about Avisail Garcia here, too. Daniel Palka also has some pop in his bat, so he’s worth a shot in this spot. Matt Davidson and Nick Delmonico are decent value tries, but neither is anywhere close to a core play. A White Sox stack makes sense in tournaments, while they can be played as cheap one-offs in cash.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.307 0.166 28.7% 7.2% 19.1% 47.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
2 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.331 0.192 38.1% 10.6% 34.9% 31.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,300
3 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.320 0.197 34.3% 2.9% 26.2% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.323 0.252 39.3% 4.4% 35.2% 44.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
5 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.276 0.168 27.7% 5.7% 25.8% 47.5% SS $3,300 SS $4,000 SS $7,500
6 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.328 0.187 31.6% 8.9% 19.8% 44.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.329 0.213 36.2% 11.3% 36.4% 39.7% 1B $3,200 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,200
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.351 0.167 27.7% 11.2% 17.3% 38.6% C $3,000 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.260 0.118 28.4% 4.2% 28.2% 36.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,800
Team Averages 0.314 0.184 32.4% 7.4% 27.0% 41.8%

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka

Secondary Plays – Matt Davidson, Nick Delmonico

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

I’d prefer to take a wait-and-see approach with Michael Kopech today, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I’m all that enthused by the prospect of playing a bunch of Tigers against him. You can take a shot on the likes of Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario and Niko Goodrum, as all 3 make sense as leverage options in tournaments. I think you’ll be able to survive a full Detroit stack fade in cash games, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.292 0.173 34.9% 11.4% 24.9% 39.4% 3B $3,500 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
2 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.272 0.106 25.4% 4.2% 11.0% 45.4% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.379 0.196 47.8% 6.5% 23.4% 34.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,000
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.337 0.085 38.6% 7.4% 9.0% 38.4% C $2,500 1B $3,200 1B $6,500
5 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.307 0.155 40.3% 4.5% 20.2% 43.9% OF $2,800 1B $3,400 LF $6,800
6 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.320 0.230 38.5% 9.0% 29.2% 39.1% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,600 2B $7,700
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.282 0.137 25.7% 8.3% 25.0% 43.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.287 0.091 39.4% 5.8% 23.0% 40.1% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.259 0.030 34.9% 2.9% 19.1% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $5,800
Team Averages 0.304 0.134 36.2% 6.7% 20.5% 41.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
washingtonmlb Jefry Rodriguez nymetsmlb Steven Matz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-108 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.425 0.441 42.9% 2.08 6.7% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.299 13.2% 0.73 17.3% 68.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.295 26.8% 1.08 26.8% 42.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.328 37.4% 1.80 22.4% 43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jefry Rodriguez
jefry-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 5 5.21 5.46 17.6% 12.2% 42.5% 35.6% 17.8% 95.3 9.6%
L14 1 5.82 3.60 14.3% 14.3% 50.0% 40.0% 0.0% 95.5 6.5%

Jefry Rodriguez has a 5.46 ERA and 5.21 SIERA across 7 outings, including 5 starts, with the Nationals this season. He’s got a middling 17.6% strikeout rate and a bloated 12.2% walk rate so far, and he’s yielded hard hits at a 35.6% clip. Rodriguez is cheap and the Mets offense opposing him today isn’t a daunting one, but he doesn’t really have enough upside to warrant serious consideration on this slate. There are plenty of inexpensive pitching options to consider, which means Rodriguez can be faded today.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodriguez in all formats.

Steven Matz
steven-matz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.71 6.08 16.1% 6.4% 47.1% 32.9% 21.9% 93.1 7.1%
2018 23 4.26 4.55 21.2% 8.6% 49.1% 32.0% 17.3% 93.3 8.5%
L14 2 4.07 7.71 21.9% 6.3% 36.4% 31.8% 18.2% 94.2 12.4%

Steven Matz hasn’t been quite as good as Zack Wheeler this season, but he’s still quietly had a solid campaign to this point. The lefty has a 21.2% strikeout rate and his 4.26 SIERA is a bit better than his 4.55 ERA. Matz has induced ground balls at a 49.1% clip and the 32% hard-hit rate isn’t bad by any means. He’ll be facing a talented Washington offense today, but the Nats did get a little worse by trading Matt Adams and Daniel Murphy earlier in the week. Matz will hold the platoon edge on some of their better hitters, and he’s cheap enough to at least be a little intriguing. Pairing Matz with someone like Pablo Lopez on multi-pitcher sites gets you a ton of quality bats, and it makes sense on a slate without a bona fide ace. I think you can play him on FanDuel, too.

Quick Breakdown: Matz is an appealing option today against the Nationals, who look like they’ve given up.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Matz hasn’t completely stifled lefties in his career, but LHBs have hit just 4 of the 50 homers he has allowed over the years. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are the best options from the Washington side, but Citi Field might be the best pitcher’s park in the league. I also don’t think it’s a terrible spot to go contrarian with a guy like Bryce Harper in a lefty-lefty matchup. Turner would really be the only Nationals hitter on my radar in cash games, while Harper will likely be GPP-only. I don’t hate that 3-man stack, but not much else from the Washington side of this matchup looks all that great.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.378 0.146 34.8% 11.0% 12.3% 40.0% SS $3,500 SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,600
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.454 0.253 44.7% 10.3% 18.7% 19.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 3B $8,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.385 0.215 40.0% 16.3% 25.3% 46.3% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $9,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.476 0.345 46.8% 13.8% 13.8% 40.4% 1B $3,400 1B $4,600 1B $9,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.367 0.263 37.5% 11.6% 23.3% 58.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,300
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.252 0.143 39.1% 6.1% 36.8% 50.8% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.249 0.095 24.5% 7.4% 25.9% 40.4% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $3,300 2B $6,500
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.260 0.059 14.3% 5.6% 16.7% 42.9% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,500
9 Jefry Rodriguez RIGHT 0.327 0.250 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 66.7% P $5,600 P $5,900 P $11,700
Team Averages 0.350 0.197 35.0% 9.1% 22.0% 45.0%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Rodriguez (J-Rod?) has allowed a .425 wOBA to lefties and a .302 wOBA to righties in limited MLB duty this season. The Mets aren’t any good, but a guy like a Jeff McNeil or a Michael Conforto could make some sense as a one-off. Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario are some potential differentiators for GPPs. Conforto is probably your best bet here, but he’s pretty far down the list on a 10-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.282 0.113 27.8% 5.4% 19.8% 50.6% SS $2,700 SS $3,800 SS $7,400
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.338 0.171 33.8% 4.4% 11.0% 38.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.342 0.163 38.4% 15.4% 23.1% 38.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 LF $8,000
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.321 0.198 36.1% 6.7% 9.8% 35.1% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 1B $7,200
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.341 0.198 46.2% 9.0% 21.2% 34.1% 3B $2,700 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
6 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.370 0.118 33.3% 11.6% 18.0% 30.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,700
7 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.342 0.167 40.8% 14.8% 29.7% 33.6% OF $3,100 3B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,300
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.313 0.156 38.6% 10.1% 22.0% 51.5% C $2,500 C $4,000 C $7,400
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.242 0.038 13.0% 0.0% 17.9% 42.9% P $6,500 P $6,400 P $12,600
Team Averages 0.321 0.147 34.2% 8.6% 19.2% 39.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles