MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 27th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Seattle at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
| Seattle | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
 | Andrew Albers |  | Masahiro Tanaka | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYY-187 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.199 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 42.1% | 72.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.299 | 0.307 | 32.4% | 4.3% | 22.0% | 51.4% | |||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.470 | 0.397 | 40.3% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 40.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.305 | 0.303 | 31.7% | 5.7% | 22.4% | 45.6% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Andrew Albers | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2 | 4.03 | 5.82 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 47.6% | 41.3% | 15.9% | |
| 2017 | 2 | 4.42 | 3.60 | 16.3% | 4.7% | 42.4% | 27.3% | 18.2% | |
| L30 | 2 | 4.42 | 3.60 | 16.3% | 4.7% | 42.4% | 27.3% | 18.2% | |
Happy Sunday, gang! As always, thanks for reading! After a dull Saturday slate, today’s action appears to be much more interesting. The only “GREEN” stack in yesterday’s article was the Cubs, and they certainly made some green for those of you who stacked them up, as they piled 17 runs up on the Phillies in a big win. Andrew Albers takes the mound for the Mariners in the first game of today’s slate, and he is not a DFS option. He is a 31 year old journeyman with a 4.50 career SIERA and a 12.6% career strikeout rate. There is no upside here, even though the Yankees are weaker against left-handed pitchers.
Quick Breakdown: Albers can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Masahiro Tanaka | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $18,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31 | 3.79 | 3.07 | 20.5% | 4.5% | 48.2% | 32.5% | 18.5% | |
| 2017 | 24 | 3.69 | 4.86 | 24.3% | 5.5% | 47.9% | 31.7% | 18.3% | |
| L30 | 4 | 3.48 | 2.52 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 37.1% | 32.3% | 19.4% | |
Tanaka is not having his finest big league season, but he has been better since a rough start to the year. This will be his second start since returning from the disabled list, and he pitched well against the Tigers in his last outing. His unspectacular ERA is largely the result of bad luck thanks to a .301 opposing BABIP and a 21% HR/FB rate that is 6% higher than his career average. His SIERA and xFIP are both about a run better than his ERA, suggesting that improvement is coming. His strikeout rate is comfortably above league average, and he doesn’t beat himself with walks. He is by no means the top option on the board, but Tanaka is certainly in play today. As a large home favorite, the win points should also be there at the end of the day.
Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is on the radar for both cash games and tournaments with a decent matchup against Seattle.
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Segura | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.295 | 0.127 | 25.1% | 4.3% | 16.2% | 54.9% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,900 |
| 2 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.387 | 0.249 | 34.1% | 13.8% | 22.4% | 32.3% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.387 | 0.213 | 38.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 50.4% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,800 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.394 | 0.381 | 0.296 | 39.4% | 7.2% | 22.0% | 40.2% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.373 | 0.183 | 39.9% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 32.5% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 6 | Mitch Haniger | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.322 | 0.198 | 36.1% | 11.6% | 23.1% | 44.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,800 |
| 7 | Ben Gamel | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.302 | 0.116 | 27.4% | 8.9% | 21.3% | 44.0% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 | RF | $5,600 |
| 8 | Guillermo Heredia | SWITCH | 0.296 | 0.254 | 0.089 | 15.3% | 5.7% | 13.7% | 51.3% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,400 |
| 9 | Mike Zunino | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.314 | 0.258 | 38.0% | 7.7% | 37.5% | 31.0% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
Tanaka is not a pitcher that I generally pick on, and that will not be changing today. He has a solid all around skill set and is about as splits-neutral as they come. The Mariners have one of the lowest team totals on the board at just under four runs, so there’s no need to force this on a full slate. Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz have a combined 9-for-54 BvP (.167 batting average) against Tanaka, and they are three of the most dangerous hitters for Seattle. That doesn’t bode well if you are a BvP person, either.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Yonder Alonso
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Yankees
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.275 | 0.286 | 0.104 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 20.7% | 46.8% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | LF | $8,700 |
| 2 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.329 | 0.217 | 29.2% | 10.5% | 20.0% | 45.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,000 |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.382 | 0.286 | 40.7% | 12.5% | 26.1% | 38.9% | C | $4,000 | C | $5,400 | C | $10,500 |
| 4 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.448 | 0.278 | 44.2% | 24.0% | 31.4% | 34.6% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,100 | RF | $10,000 |
| 5 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.292 | 0.278 | 0.075 | 15.6% | 3.5% | 15.0% | 34.8% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,400 | SS | $8,400 |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.315 | 0.086 | 33.3% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 54.4% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 7 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.270 | 0.283 | 0.112 | 28.6% | 4.1% | 25.6% | 41.7% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B/3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,800 |
| 8 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.364 | 0.295 | 33.8% | 15.0% | 19.6% | 23.5% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 9 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.229 | 0.232 | 0.091 | 20.0% | 5.7% | 21.8% | 49.1% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
Although Andrew Albers has reasonable numbers in his small sample of data this season, his career marks indicate that he is a league average arm at best. He has allowed a .358 career wOBA to right-handed hitters, and his ground ball rate dips by almost 10% against righties. The Yankees have a very high team total of 5.6 runs today, making them one of the top offensive choices on the board. I am not quite as high on them as that figure would indicate, though, as the Yankees rank just 21st in team wOBA against LHP this year. The power RHBs are strong plays, but I prefer other full stacks.
Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro
Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Todd Frazier
Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW
Minnesota at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET
| Minnesota | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
 | Kyle Gibson |  | Joe Biagini | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TOR-128 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.378 | 0.345 | 32.7% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 48.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.280 | 31.2% | 7.2% | 24.1% | 55.7% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.356 | 33.3% | 8.9% | 16.9% | 51.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.290 | 0.291 | 25.0% | 7.3% | 17.7% | 54.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Kyle Gibson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 4.73 | 5.07 | 15.9% | 8.4% | 48.8% | 31.0% | 18.6% | |
| 2017 | 22 | 4.96 | 5.76 | 15.8% | 9.7% | 51.9% | 36.0% | 15.4% | |
| L30 | 4 | 3.82 | 4.29 | 22.1% | 6.3% | 52.3% | 31.8% | 22.7% | |
Kyle Gibson has an ERA approaching 6.00 for the year and is allowing hard contact 36% of the time. He doesn’t strike out many hitters and is a very easy fade as he pitches on the road in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals of the day. Gibson is nowhere near the fantasy radar.
Quick Breakdown: Gibson can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Joe Biagini | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $9,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | 3.45 | 3.06 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 52.2% | 23.0% | 17.7% | |
| 2017 | 11 | 4.06 | 5.11 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 56.8% | 31.1% | 18.6% | |
| L30 | 0 | 4.48 | 16.20 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 42.9% | 28.6% | 28.6% | |
When he first entered the starting rotation this year, there was some fantasy buzz around Joe Biagini. He posted a few impressive games in late May and early June, but the ship quickly crashed back to earth, and he eventually got banished to the bullpen. He was moved to AAA earlier this month to get stretched out, but he made just two starts down there before the call-up. The most recent start lasted just 3 1/3 innings, so I wouldn’t expect him to go very deep into this game. He is an easy fade against a suddenly scorching hot Twins offense.
Quick Breakdown: Biagini has some interesting potential, but he is not fully stretched out and will not be pitching deep into the game today. Pass.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.307 | 0.198 | 33.2% | 9.5% | 21.8% | 39.9% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $4,800 | 2B | $9,300 |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.390 | 0.123 | 41.3% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 49.4% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.287 | 0.110 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 40.3% | 3B | $3,600 | SS | $4,800 | SS | $9,200 |
| 4 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.330 | 0.231 | 33.8% | 7.5% | 18.5% | 39.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.258 | 0.148 | 26.0% | 6.6% | 32.0% | 39.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $8,700 |
| 6 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.327 | 0.231 | 37.7% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 41.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,600 |
| 7 | Kennys Vargas | SWITCH | 0.337 | 0.337 | 0.215 | 31.9% | 4.3% | 28.3% | 41.8% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 8 | Chris Gimenez | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.246 | 0.099 | 19.2% | 15.3% | 30.6% | 38.0% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
| 9 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.309 | 0.135 | 32.3% | 6.2% | 19.0% | 33.8% | SS | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,600 |
Biagini is not an easy pitcher to pick on, as he gets a solid amount of ground balls and doesn’t have a major weakness. However, the Twins have been raking of late, and there is always potential for an offense to go off in a game where the starter is not expected to pitch deep into the contest. Biagini is allowing a 35% hard contact rate to LHBs, so the lefties that have been hitting well are the priority hitters here. If you are looking for a full stack in this game, I prefer the team on the other side. That’s not to slight the Twins, as they rank 2nd in the league in ISO over the last two weeks. They are playing over their heads right now (as the Cardinals did for a while), but the good times are going to come crashing down at some point. I can’t blame you if you want to continue to enjoy the ride for now.
Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler
Secondary Plays – Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.317 | 0.174 | 31.5% | 9.5% | 18.5% | 41.3% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,200 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.379 | 0.249 | 33.7% | 15.9% | 23.1% | 41.0% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,600 | 3B | $8,800 |
| 3 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.371 | 0.395 | 0.280 | 41.7% | 9.9% | 22.7% | 33.7% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $8,800 |
| 4 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.330 | 0.190 | 34.4% | 13.1% | 22.6% | 34.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,800 |
| 5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.292 | 0.355 | 0.188 | 35.5% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 47.6% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Miguel Montero | LEFT | 0.292 | 0.278 | 0.139 | 29.8% | 10.1% | 20.9% | 43.6% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 7 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.296 | 0.129 | 26.1% | 5.4% | 15.5% | 46.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $6,000 |
| 8 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.262 | 0.269 | 0.124 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 46.5% | SS | $2,600 | 2B/SS | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
| 9 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.225 | 0.254 | 0.089 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 15.1% | 48.8% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B/3B | $2,400 | 2B | $4,800 |
This will be one of the more popular spots for offense today. After being shut down by Bartolo Colon on Friday, the Blue Jays responded with a ten run outburst on Saturday against Dillon Gee and company, and there’s certainly no reason to think that they couldn’t do it again with Kyle Gibson pitching on the other side. Gibson has terrible numbers across the board with a 36% hard contact rate allowed, a 5.76 ERA, a 4.96 SIERA, and a bloated walk rate approaching 10%. Other than that, everything is great! He has allowed hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate, and both lefties and righties have a wOBA greater than .360 against him. The whole offense is in play here, but it’s probably better to stick to the top six hitters given how weak the bottom of the order is for the Jays.
Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales (value)
Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Steve Pearce
Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW
Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Cleveland | ||||||||||||||
 | Eric Skoglund |  | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TBD | |||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.392 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 100.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.315 | 37.6% | 7.7% | 25.1% | 43.1% | |||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.376 | 0.331 | 48.3% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 34.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.281 | 0.278 | 31.5% | 5.0% | 27.5% | 49.2% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Eric Skoglund | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 5.24 | 5.59 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 36.7% | 48.4% | 12.9% | |
Skoglund is a talented young lefty with an intriguing future, but he will be making just his fourth major league start today. It comes on the road against a good offense, and he is a large underdog with Carlos Carrasco pitching on the other side. He gave up four runs in two innings in his previous outing against the Indians, and he is not a fantasy option today.
Quick Breakdown: There will be brighter days ahead, but today is not one of those days.
| Carlos Carrasco | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $11,800 | Salary: | $22,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 3.44 | 3.32 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 48.5% | 36.4% | 16.0% | |
| 2017 | 25 | 3.53 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 6.6% | 44.2% | 32.4% | 17.1% | |
| L30 | 5 | 3.67 | 5.67 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 45.2% | 40.5% | 16.2% | |
Carrasco checks in as one of the better pitchers on this Sunday slate. His SIERA still sits at a very comfortable 3.53 for the year, but his performances have been somewhat erratic of late. His last four starts consist of two dominant outings and two poor outings, but the overall profile is still very good. His 27.5% strikeout rate is well above average and is one of the best marks on today’s slate, and his 13% swinging strike rate is very solid as well. The upside might be somewhat limited against a Royals squad that doesn’t strike out a ton, but there’s no real reason to fear their lineup, and Carrasco is capable of dominating against any lineup when he is on his game. Carrasco is a very safe option today, and he also has GPP appeal as one of the top overall pitchers on the slate.
Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is a fine option in all game formats.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.297 | 0.160 | 28.9% | 3.7% | 13.8% | 36.0% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 2 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.330 | 0.133 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 44.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
| 3 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.383 | 0.204 | 33.9% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 50.8% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 4 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.332 | 0.345 | 0.129 | 30.1% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 51.0% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.345 | 0.243 | 38.5% | 3.3% | 19.3% | 31.2% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 6 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.385 | 0.367 | 0.310 | 36.3% | 6.1% | 15.5% | 30.0% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Brandon Moss | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.311 | 0.218 | 34.5% | 9.8% | 33.5% | 31.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.241 | 0.247 | 0.079 | 26.2% | 1.9% | 18.9% | 43.1% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
| 9 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.104 | 32.7% | 7.5% | 24.1% | 40.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,700 | LF | $5,400 |
I do not believe that I have rostered a hitter against Carrasco all year, and that won’t change on a large slate today. He has allowed a .335 wOBA to LHBs, so the lefties do have some appeal if you want to go there. I am not terribly interested, as only the Brewers have a lower implied team total.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Eric Hosmer
Stackability – ORANGE / RED
Cleveland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.375 | 0.357 | 0.205 | 42.2% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 39.9% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $9,600 |
| 2 | Austin Jackson | RIGHT | 0.441 | 0.388 | 0.269 | 35.5% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 40.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.353 | 0.335 | 0.196 | 31.7% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 41.8% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.381 | 0.192 | 35.9% | 19.6% | 23.2% | 45.7% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $8,800 |
| 5 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.309 | 0.242 | 40.2% | 6.8% | 24.1% | 29.7% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $8,800 |
| 6 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.324 | 0.339 | 0.181 | 33.1% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 52.0% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 7 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.289 | 0.141 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 25.3% | 31.1% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,300 | LF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.337 | 0.244 | 41.0% | 12.0% | 19.6% | 43.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 9 | Giovanny Urshela | RIGHT | 0.197 | 0.254 | 0.032 | 30.8% | 3.1% | 15.6% | 30.8% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $5,600 |
As Skoglund has just 9 2/3 innings under his belt at the big league level, we can’t make too much out of his splits. As a young lefty who is just getting his feet wet at the major league level, he is going to take his lumps from time to time. The Indians are a dangerous offense that has plenty of power, and I like the full stack here. Austin Jackson has been hitting 2nd against lefties of late, and his numbers against LHP this year have quietly been very good. He’s an under the radar mid-range/value pick today.
Elite Plays – Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor
Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes
Stackability – GREEN
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
 | Jameson Taillon |  | Tyler Mahle | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CIN-100 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.340 | 0.320 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 52.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.309 | 0.271 | 33.2% | 4.3% | 26.0% | 48.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | ||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jameson Taillon | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | 3.61 | 3.38 | 20.3% | 4.1% | 52.4% | 33.2% | 17.3% | |
| 2017 | 19 | 4.14 | 4.85 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 49.5% | 30.4% | 24.0% | |
| L30 | 5 | 4.52 | 7.27 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 43.8% | 32.5% | 24.1% | |
The Pirates and Reds played a 1-0 game yesterday in a fun pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo, and it’s a shame that the game really wasn’t available on many slates. A solo home run by Cole was the difference. I would expect more offense today in a game that has a Vegas total of 9 1/2 runs. Although I am a big fan of the long-term potential of Jameson Taillon, he simply isn’t there yet. His ERA sits at 4.85 right now, his SIERA has climbed above 4.00, and he has been much more erratic of late. His strikeouts and walks are right around league average, he had just five walks and one strikeout in his last start, and he got absolutely hammered by the Reds for eight runs in 3 2/3 innings the last time he faced them.
Quick Breakdown: There is without a doubt a bright future here, but Taillon is struggling right now and is not a DFS option.
| Tyler Mahle | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mahle is the top pitching prospect for Cincinnati, and he brings a solid minor league profile to the table for his MLB debut. He has pitched a full season between AA and AAA ball this year, and his overall numbers include a 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 138/30 K/BB mark over 144 innings. Those are solid numbers. Obviously, a bump to the big leagues is a big switch, and there is a lot of risk here. However, Mahle is value priced at $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. He’s on the map as a risk/reward value pitching option.
Quick Breakdown: Mahle has good minor league numbers and could be worth a look as a punt today. There is always risk with a pitcher making his MLB debut, so he is better served as a GPP option.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.337 | 0.115 | 27.4% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 49.5% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
| 2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.319 | 0.147 | 31.9% | 4.7% | 16.1% | 35.5% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B/3B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.346 | 0.160 | 32.5% | 10.9% | 18.1% | 42.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,600 |
| 4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.340 | 0.227 | 33.5% | 11.2% | 19.2% | 49.6% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.344 | 0.108 | 31.9% | 11.8% | 21.3% | 55.5% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.334 | 0.128 | 31.9% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 46.8% | OF | $3,500 | 2B/OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Chris Stewart | RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.258 | 0.037 | 30.9% | 4.5% | 17.0% | 34.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,000 | C | $4,000 |
| 8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.308 | 0.148 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 46.7% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,600 |
| 9 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.046 | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.1% | 88.9% | P | $6,600 | P | $7,300 | P | $14,400 |
There is always the potential for an offense to go nuts when the opposing pitcher is making his major league debut. I like Mahle’s profile and will likely be avoiding the Pirates today. If you feel differently or have a strategy of always picking on pitchers in their debuts, I certainly can’t argue with that. There is risk/reward potential on both sides here.
Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen
Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Josh Harrison
Stackability – YELLOW
Cincinnati
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.261 | 0.090 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 20.2% | 45.7% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,600 |
| 2 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.322 | 0.242 | 29.5% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 39.5% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.435 | 0.432 | 0.271 | 38.5% | 18.7% | 11.3% | 37.4% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $10,000 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.296 | 0.250 | 33.6% | 5.3% | 26.4% | 30.8% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 5 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.338 | 0.266 | 38.5% | 6.7% | 21.6% | 41.7% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 6 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.343 | 0.200 | 30.8% | 13.1% | 22.3% | 41.5% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,400 |
| 7 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.369 | 0.256 | 39.7% | 9.8% | 22.3% | 42.9% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.331 | 0.123 | 34.4% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 43.9% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,800 |
| 9 | Tyler Mahle | RIGHT | P | $6,000 | P | $5,800 | P | $11,400 |
I respect the skills of Jameson Taillon a lot, but it is impossible to ignore how much he has been struggling and how hard the Reds have hit him. Taillon has already faced Cincinnati three times, and he has an atrocious 9.82 ERA in those starts. Jose Peraza is 8-for-10 against him. Billy Hamilton is 4-for-11 with two home runs. Adam Duvall is 6-for-14 with two home runs. You get the picture. Taillon has struggled against the Reds. Feel free to fire them up today, as hard as it is for me to say that against a talented young pitcher. Taillon just isn’t right at the moment, and this is a bad matchup.
Elite Plays – Adam Duvall, Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton
Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
San Diego at Miami – 1:10 PM ET
| San Diego | Miami | ||||||||||||||
 | Clayton Richard |  | Dan Straily | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TBD | |||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.317 | 0.241 | 22.1% | 4.9% | 22.5% | 71.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.309 | 30.2% | 10.5% | 20.9% | 34.3% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.363 | 0.344 | 33.9% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 57.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.315 | 35.4% | 6.1% | 20.8% | 32.5% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Clayton Richard | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $13,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9 | 4.46 | 3.33 | 13.4% | 10.1% | 65.1% | 25.9% | 21.6% | |
| 2017 | 26 | 4.13 | 4.89 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 58.8% | 33.9% | 17.2% | |
| L30 | 5 | 3.62 | 3.03 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 63.9% | 36.7% | 14.3% | |
Clayton Richard gets by with a massive ground ball rate and the old “gut” factor. He is the prototypical profile of a pitcher who is a better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher, as his sub-17% strikeout rate limits any upside for our purposes. He is elite against left-handed hitters, but the Marlins should load their lineup with about seven RHBs today. They have plenty of RH power in their lineup, so that gives Richard even less appeal.
Quick Breakdown: He is a fine guy and I would be happy to be friends with Clayton Richard, but I don’t think he cares about me. That makes me sad. He is not a fantasy option.
| Dan Straily | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31 | 4.67 | 3.76 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 32.0% | 32.2% | 14.8% | |
| 2017 | 26 | 4.29 | 3.83 | 22.3% | 6.9% | 35.5% | 33.7% | 19.8% | |
| L30 | 5 | 4.20 | 3.81 | 22.8% | 7.0% | 40.0% | 27.5% | 20.0% | |
Welcome to Dan Straily chalk day? It is the Padres that he is facing, after all. The Padres managed just one run against former teammate Odrisamer Despaigne last night, and that was on a double steal that included a swipe of home plate. How typical of the Padres. That is a nice microcosm of their season, and it was a nice reminder of just how bad their offense is. Dan Straily found his strikeout upside again with a ten strikeout performance against the Phillies in his last start, and don’t forget about the outing he had against these same Padres earlier in the season. He struck out 14 Padres in a dominant start at Petco Park, and his fly ball ways profile just fine against a weak offense. Straily is a fine option in all formats today.
Quick Breakdown: The sites have given Straily a price boost because he is facing the Padres, but he is still a viable DFS option this afternoon. The matchup is great and the strikeout upside is certainly available.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Margot | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.293 | 0.151 | 27.2% | 4.1% | 20.9% | 37.5% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
| 2 | Carlos Asuaje | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.297 | 0.128 | 33.0% | 10.0% | 23.1% | 34.0% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
| 3 | Jose Pirela | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.319 | 0.228 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 18.3% | 47.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 4 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.318 | 0.192 | 32.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 42.1% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Wil Myers | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.305 | 0.217 | 37.3% | 9.4% | 27.9% | 37.2% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 6 | Cory Spangenberg | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.307 | 0.185 | 31.3% | 8.0% | 21.2% | 44.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/OF | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
| 7 | Austin Hedges | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.267 | 0.239 | 33.8% | 5.2% | 28.7% | 35.8% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 8 | Dusty Coleman | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.371 | 0.341 | 57.7% | 0.0% | 40.4% | 28.0% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,700 |
| 9 | Clayton Richard | LEFT | 0.133 | 0.130 | 0.032 | 5.3% | 2.6% | 44.7% | 61.5% | P | $6,700 | P | $6,900 | P | $13,800 |
They are just so bad. At this point, I simply can’t do it. Cross them off the list. Yes, I’m bitter because I stacked them yesterday. That was a silly move. Never stack the Padres. #NeverPadres
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – DEEP, DEEP, DEEP RED
Miami
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.274 | 0.233 | 0.030 | 9.4% | 1.4% | 11.5% | 67.3% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,100 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.434 | 0.424 | 0.394 | 41.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 44.0% | OF | $5,300 | OF | $5,700 | RF | $11,100 |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.348 | 0.151 | 30.9% | 5.5% | 17.2% | 57.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 | CF | $8,800 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.342 | 0.125 | 36.5% | 10.3% | 20.6% | 52.7% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,000 | LF | $9,900 |
| 5 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.408 | 0.393 | 0.247 | 34.8% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 40.6% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,900 | C | $7,600 |
| 6 | Tyler Moore | RIGHT | 0.222 | 0.257 | 0.100 | 34.4% | 5.7% | 34.0% | 50.0% | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $2,800 | IF/OF | $5,600 |
| 7 | Mike Aviles | RIGHT | 0.100 | 0.227 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 53.8% | SS | $2,300 | 2B/OF | $2,400 | IF/OF | $4,800 |
| 8 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.346 | 0.091 | 25.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 38.5% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,400 | 2B | $4,800 |
| 9 | Dan Straily | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.066 | 0.000 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 66.7% | P | $7,900 | P | $8,000 | P | $15,600 |
You can instantly ignore any left-handed hitters against Richard. He has an elite ground ball rate and limits hard contact well against lefties. If Dee Gordon and/or Christian Yelich are in there today, don’t bother with them. They can even be left off your Miami stacks, if you make any. Although Richard still gets a solid number of ground balls against RHBs, his numbers are not nearly as elite. He has allowed a .375 wOBA and 22% hard contact rate to RHBs this year, and the Marlins have plenty of right-handed power in the middle of their lineup. Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna are both seeing the ball well right now and are strong plays. Some of the other righties profile better against LHP and could be interesting values today, as well.