MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 10th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-07-11 15:15:12

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Detroit					Toronto
			Anibal Sanchez					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -175					10.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.320	18	22.3%	10.1%	SP vs. Left	0.316	22	13.7%	8.9%
SP vs. Right	0.374	27	17.6%	6.8%	SP vs. Right	0.317	23	16.4%	6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		15.2	FPPG:		6.5
					Pitcher Rating:		43.9	Pitcher Rank:		25
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	2	177.0	4.51	6.43	17.6%	8.8%	9.0%	47.7%	33.8%	29.9%
2016	13	106.0	4.92	6.52	18.5%	10.5%	8.8%	40.7%	42.4%	32.7%
2015	25	101.3	4.03	4.99	20.9%	7.4%	9.3%	40.0%	39.1%	27.1%

Anibal Sanchez: It has been a rough go for Sanchez this season, and I do not expect things to go much better today in Toronto. In terms of fantasy, Sanchez is pretty irrelevant on most slates and especially so when all thirty teams are playing on a Sunday. All the check marks are here for a guy you want to fade, from his high wOBA allowed to the walk rate that’s over ten percent on the season.

R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		25.5	FPPG:		12.6
					Pitcher Rating:		53.3	Pitcher Rank:		19
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	97.5	4.67	3.41	17.0%	6.5%	10.8%	40.2%	40.2%	32.5%
2016	18	98.0	4.77	3.94	17.0%	8.3%	9.9%	44.9%	34.6%	30.4%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

R.A. Dickey: Not usually someone that I play too often, Dickey just does not have the fantasy value you need to see from him most of the time. With that said, this is a strange pitching slate and on win-dependent sites you can consider him in tournaments today to allow for bigger bats. I am not saying that you should go heavy here, as his strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired, but Toronto should be in good shape for a victory and Dickey has the ability to shutdown a lineup still if the knuckleball is dancing.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Tigers: In the first three games of the series, Detroit has scored a total of seven runs with four of those coming from the first game. They have very much been an all-or-nothing type of offense this season, and as such can be considered a decent tournament stack in the Rogers Centre today. Outside of a stack, there are only a couple of guys you can trust in a cash lineup with Nick Castellanos being possibly one of the most underrated fantasy options in baseball. And of course, there’s Miggy.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (11 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.91 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.82 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera , Cameron Maybin , Victor Martinez , Ian Kinsler

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Blue Jays: In terms of power, this is one of the best lineups in the entire league against all pitchers, ranking second in ISO against righties specifically. Sanchez is a pitcher I want to attack today, and the heart of this lineup is one that can score runs in bunches with each possessing the ability to go yard multiple times in a game. With a high projected run total, it is my suggestion that you grab some exposure to this side of the game with as many as seven legitimate options available.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.197 (2 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.92 (6 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.68 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion , Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Troy Tulowitzki , Russell Martin , Ezequiel Carrera , Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash / GPP

Cincinnati at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Cincinnati					Miami
			Cody Reed					Tom Koehler
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -170					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.265	1	40.0%	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.343	19	18.3%	11.2%
SP vs. Right	0.467	7	19.3%	9.6%	SP vs. Right	0.310	11	16.4%	9.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Reed
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		16.5	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		60.9	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	86.3	4.08	9.00	22.5%	8.2%	10.1%	46.2%	32.3%	40.9%
2016	4	86.3	4.08	9.00	22.5%	8.2%	10.1%	46.2%	32.3%	40.9%

Cody Reed: Reed has not been good through four starts this season with a hard hit rate over 40 percent, but there are some promising numbers that suggest he can and will be better. His strikeout rate is decent, and the swinging strike rate is solid as well, which shows that the upside is there. It would be risky pitching him today, but his ERA is certainly inflated, and I expect him to pitch a bit better moving forward. As for fantasy today, there are other options I like better.

Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		25.4	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		53.7	Pitcher Rank:		18
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	91.7	4.52	4.22	20.0%	8.6%	10.7%	39.6%	36.5%	27.6%
2016	17	94.4	5.15	4.40	17.9%	11.7%	8.7%	42.8%	34.4%	25.8%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Tom Koehler: We know what we’re getting from Tom Koehler at this point in his career: the occasional quality fantasy game mixed in with a bunch of average games, as his strikeout numbers tend to be on the lower side. He has always struggled a bit with left-handed bats, and considering that a lot of the Reds production comes from a couple of lefties, I do not like his chances today. This is a scenario where Cincy looks more worth the risk than Koehler although that price on DraftKings is very enticing.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Reds: This has not been a good hitting team at all this season against righties, and coming into today, the Reds are on a pretty big downswing with virtually everyone except Joey Votto limping into the All-Star break. With that said, a matchup with Tom Koehler is the exact type of pitcher to get the heart of their order going, and I do not mind Jay Bruce as a possible overlooked option on the day.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (27 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.161 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (20 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.30 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.09 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce , Adam Duvall , Billy Hamilton

Stackability – None

Miami

Marlins: While I do think Reed is a better pitcher than he has shown, it is also pretty apparent that right-handed bats have hit him hard so far. The Marlins outfield duo of Stanton and Ozuna can pack a serious punch and should be near the top of your list for the day. Marcell Ozuna is overshadowed by the towering home runs of Giancarlo Stanton but is a very good hitter against southpaws and carries a very affordable price point across most sites, making him a great choice today.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (21 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.139 (25 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 23.5% (23 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.20 (20 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.91 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna , J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – None

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees					Cleveland
			Masahiro Tanaka					Carlos Carrasco
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -120					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.277	16	22.4%	4.1%	SP vs. Left	0.280	14	27.6%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.279	18	20.6%	4.7%	SP vs. Right	0.282	14	29.0%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		32.7	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		70.6	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	102.0	3.72	3.97	20.9%	3.6%	12.0%	47.1%	32.7%	36.5%
2016	17	95.9	3.82	3.12	19.6%	4.4%	11.4%	50.4%	28.4%	33.2%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

Masahiro Tanaka: This game features two of the better pitching options on the board with Tanaka and the Yankees coming into Cleveland as the slight underdog today. From a points-per-dollar standpoint I have these two pretty close, as I expect Tanaka to limit the damage while producing a decent strikeout total at his cheaper price point. In terms of upside, Carrasco is clearly a guy who has more, but do not sleep on Tanaka at this salary, especially on sites where the win is not as important.

Carlos Carrasco
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$11,600
					FPPG:		37.7	FPPG:		21.3
					Pitcher Rating:		90.0	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	102.5	3.19	2.13	28.2%	7.4%	12.4%	55.3%	26.2%	27.9%
2016	11	91.5	3.45	2.47	25.1%	6.6%	11.6%	53.3%	28.0%	34.2%
2015	30	92.6	2.74	3.63	29.6%	5.9%	14.0%	51.2%	29.8%	27.5%

Carlos Carrasco: With his strikeout rate on the rise and his hard hit percentage taking a dip, we have seen Carrasco trending in the direction you want a pitcher with his upside to be going. There are limited options overall in terms of pitching today, and Carrasco has to be considered one of the top overall fantasy plays coming into the day. It will be interesting to see how the ownership levels shake out at the top with Bumgarner carrying a bit higher salary. Carrasco is in play in all formats today.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Yankees: I am not a fan of the Yankees bats in this one, and their lack of consistency has been a fantasy killer all season long. Outside of Carlos Beltran, who has been nothing short of amazing, you just do not know what to expect from them as pieces of the lineup seem to disappear for long stretches. With Carrasco on the mound and some pretty good options elsewhere, New York bats are not something we need to worry ourselves with today.

• Yankees Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (20 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.5% (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.13 (23 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.63 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran

Stackability – None

Cleveland

Indians: The Indians have to be one of the surprise teams going into the All-Star break this season, sitting in the top ten for multiple key offensive categories that we hold dear in fantasy. With Tanaka on the hill, it is hard to suggest going too crazy with Indians exposure, but there are certainly bats that you can like here. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana are swinging it pretty well and have the splits to suggest they can get the job done against the right-hander. Still, Tanaka is a better than average pitcher, so do not over extend too much.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (4 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.86 (10 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.87 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana , Jason Kipnis , Francisco Lindor

Stackability – None

Washington at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Washington					NY Mets
			Gio Gonzalez					Steven Matz
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -120					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.279	2	18.5%	6.3%	SP vs. Left	0.301	0	20.3%	8.9%
SP vs. Right	0.327	17	23.9%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.290	13	23.9%	4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		72.3	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	102.2	4.06	6.42	26.0%	11.7%	11.3%	48.3%	22.5%	35.2%
2016	17	99.8	3.93	4.79	23.4%	8.1%	9.9%	47.3%	30.0%	33.7%
2015	31	95.1	3.77	3.79	22.3%	9.1%	9.8%	53.8%	26.6%	28.7%

Gio Gonzalez: The strikeouts have been great for Gio lately, but the problem is both his walk rate and runs allowed are up. Today, he is facing a team that will strikeout at a high rate against lefties, and the price is good enough that taking a risk with Gonzalez as a secondary option on multiple pitcher sites makes sense to me. It is worth noting that the Mets hit him hard the last time he saw them, but more concerning is his recent stretch of games allowing at least three runs. It is risky, and I do not expect most to be in the same boat, but Gio is a guy I feel we can play here.

Steven Matz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		33.8	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		73.4	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	97.0	4.03	5.34	19.4%	4.8%	10.1%	48.9%	34.4%	37.2%
2016	15	95.4	3.49	3.34	23.1%	5.2%	9.6%	53.8%	28.3%	28.6%
2015	6	96.0	3.63	2.27	22.8%	6.7%	8.3%	45.5%	33.7%	21.2%

Steven Matz: Matz is a great young lefty and shut down this Nationals lineup the only time he faced them, but Washington simply crushes lefties. Not only do the Nationals rank first in wOBA and ISO against left-handers, but they also strike out at a lower rate than most of the league at just 19.2%. Matz has decent upside but is riskier than Gonzalez with price considered. Because of that, he is limited to tournaments only for me.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Nationals: When you look at the projected run total for the Nationals and see how low they rank overall on the day, it would be easy to fade or limit exposure. Instead, I believe they are one of the better tournament stacks on the day with solid pricing on most sites and an ownership that will be too low for a team that has hit lefties this hard. There are options spread up and down this lineup that make sense, so do not limit yourself to the big boys up top if you decide to put together a GPP lineup today.

• Nationals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.222 (1 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 19.2% (7 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.71 (11 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.88 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth , Wilson Ramos , Danny Espinosa , Anthony Rendon

Stackability – GPP

NY Mets

Mets: Looking at the projected lineup below, that is a lot more red and yellow than you want to see in any lineup. As such, we are pretty limited in what we can do here. I have already planted my flag in the Gio camp for this game, so it should be pretty obvious that I am not a big fan of the Mets hitting. With that said, a guy like Curtis Granderson is someone I would look at if you want to get some Mets exposure.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (17 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (11 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 24.8% (30 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.89 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.12 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson , Jose Reyes , Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – None

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
			John Lackey					Jon Niese
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -150					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.317	15	16.2%	9.0%	SP vs. Left	0.346	7	17.9%	5.4%
SP vs. Right	0.271	18	25.8%	4.4%	SP vs. Right	0.345	32	14.1%	8.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,200
					FPPG:		36.5	FPPG:		19.8
					Pitcher Rating:		70.5	Pitcher Rank:		9
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	101.5	4.40	4.79	22.7%	9.7%	8.7%	34.4%	41.7%	32.7%
2016	17	98.6	3.82	3.50	25.2%	7.7%	11.4%	39.5%	38.4%	34.1%
2015	33	94.8	3.90	2.77	19.5%	5.9%	9.4%	46.0%	33.3%	30.1%

John Lackey: It appears as though Lackey is one of a few Cubs starters that need the All-Star break to reset things. He started the season in fantastic form but has been hit hard in his last three starts and is not someone I trust right now for fantasy purposes at the current pricing. Do not get me wrong – he is more than capable of finishing the first half with a great start, and the Cubs lineup is always going to give you a shot at the win, but recent form suggests that is a very risky proposition.

Jon Niese
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$4,600
					FPPG:		23.5	FPPG:		10.4
					Pitcher Rating:		46.1	Pitcher Rank:		24
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	97.0	4.62	7.33	15.0%	7.9%	6.6%	53.8%	24.7%	40.8%
2016	17	94.1	4.53	4.87	15.6%	7.8%	7.1%	54.7%	25.8%	31.6%
2015	29	93.1	4.27	4.13	14.7%	7.1%	5.8%	54.5%	24.7%	29.7%

Jon Niese: When you have to ask yourself how low a pitcher’s salary would have to be in order to roster him, then you know a couple things. One, the pitcher is not good, and two, he is likely facing someone you do not target often. Enter Jon Niese, who I want no part of today. His strikeout rate is entirely too low, and the recent hard hit spike suggests it might be a good idea to get some Cubbies in your lineup today.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Cubs: As a Cardinals fan, I have wanted the Cubs to be good again for a while now. The problem is I did not want them to be this good. Seriously though, it is amazing how talented the lineup is. It is going to be a high-scoring fantasy day when a projected run total like this is barely in the top half of the league, but I want exposure to Chicago here, and you can find it up and down the lineup, so get creative.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.352 (3 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.201 (2 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.2% (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.22 (2 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.54 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist , Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras , Anthony Rizzo , Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash / GPP

Pittsburgh

Pirates: Despite a pretty good record going into today, the Pirates have felt like a bit of a letdown on offense. With Lackey’s recent struggles, it is obviously okay to have some exposure to Pittsburgh, but I am struggling with just how much. As I mentioned, is going to be a high-scoring day in terms of fantasy points, but it is hard to pinpoint where they will come from from on this Pirates squad.

• Pirates Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (12 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (24 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.63 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.96 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte , Jung-Ho Kang , Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – None

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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