MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 10th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-06-11 00:54:52

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Boston
			Reynaldo Lopez							Rick Porcello
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-210							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	0.331	32.4%	9.7%	12.4%	34.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.328	38.7%	7.1%	25.7%	33.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.350	27.7%	11.3%	20.0%	35.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.262	0.267	22.2%	3.6%	19.8%	57.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Reynaldo Lopez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2017	8	5.44	4.72	14.5%	6.8%	30.2%	27.8%	17.9%
	2018	12	5.29	3.42	16.3%	10.5%	35.1%	30.2%	25.0%
	L14	3	5.74	4.86	13.2%	11.8%	42.0%	26.0%	24.0%

Reynaldo Lopez is a heralded prospect that hasn’t quite put it together yet at the highest level. The right-hander has a mediocre K-rate of 16.3% along with a walk rate over 10%. He has a 3.42 ERA, but his 5.29 SIERA is quite a bit more indicative of how he’s pitched this season. The Red Sox are short-handed without Mookie Betts right now, but they’re still a strong offense and Fenway is a hitters’ park..

Quick Breakdown: Lopez may figure it out eventually, but playing him at Fenway feels like a disaster waiting to happen.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$18,800
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%
	2018	13	3.63	3.59	22.3%	5.0%	48.1%	28.7%	22.8%
	L14	3	4.71	4.32	15.2%	7.6%	47.3%	28.6%	30.4%

Rick Porcello is a solid right-hander that never seems to get blown up. His 3.59 ERA and 3.63 SIERA are in line with one another, and he has a solid 22.3% strikeout ate on the season. He also keeps walks and hard contact to a minimum, which are obviously good traits. This guy gave up 38 (!!!) dongs last year, but he’s allowed just 7 so far in 2018. He gets a great matchup against a middling White Sox lineup today. The park isn’t ideal, but I think Porcello is a viable option given the matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is a solid option against the White Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Porcello isn’t a guy I’ll typically go out of my way to avoid, but the White Sox also aren’t an offense that usually looks all that appealing. Porcello has been tough on righties, and most of Chicago’s better bats happen to be right-handed. Yoan Moncada and Daniel Palka are playable from the left side, but that’s about it for me.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.386	0.259	0.225	43.6%	10.6%	34.1%	32.3%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,200
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.354	0.374	0.174	29.9%	2.8%	14.1%	45.0%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.409	0.305	0.212	37.6%	6.1%	16.2%	40.9%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,400
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.383	0.422	0.267	40.3%	2.2%	25.0%	41.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.418	0.276	0.243	45.1%	15.6%	31.1%	38.0%	3B	$3,000	1B/3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
6	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.289	0.335	0.191	26.6%	7.6%	26.2%	43.8%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,400
7	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.281	0.257	0.068	26.8%	11.0%	20.7%	42.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
8	Charlie Tilson	LEFT	0.196	0.205	0.037	19.2%	3.4%	6.9%	60.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600
9	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.233	0.251	0.100	17.1%	6.3%	29.7%	29.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.328	0.298	0.169	31.8%	7.3%	22.7%	41.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada

Stackability – RED

Boston

The BoSox get an exploitable matchup against a hittable right-hander in Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has actually been pretty tough on righties so far this season, so I’d probably start things off with left-handed hitters. Andrew Benintendi is an elite play, while Mitch Moreland and Rafael Devers also grade out well. J.D. Martinez is so good that I will never talk you out of playing him, either. A full-on Red Sox stack is viable in GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.389	0.440	0.258	28.6%	12.5%	13.5%	35.1%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,700
2	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.383	0.365	0.271	37.4%	3.9%	19.5%	43.9%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,400
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.487	0.468	0.397	52.2%	9.5%	21.4%	44.9%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,800
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.466	0.405	0.342	39.8%	9.4%	17.3%	39.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,100
5	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.268	0.258	0.146	27.9%	1.8%	18.4%	48.1%	2B	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,400	3B	$6,700
6	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.333	0.311	0.153	23.3%	9.4%	13.5%	50.7%	SS	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,800
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.335	0.258	0.173	40.3%	8.4%	26.7%	44.7%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
8	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.341	0.374	0.130	35.8%	11.1%	24.2%	44.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.300	0.298	0.158	32.5%	3.3%	26.7%	37.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
	Team Averages		0.367	0.353	0.225	35.3%	7.7%	20.1%	43.2%

Elite Plays – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays – Jackie Bradley Jr., J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Toronto
			Alex Cobb							Marco Estrada
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-135							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.417	0.379	34.6%	4.8%	17.3%	41.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.358	0.349	26.9%	8.7%	18.1%	29.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.376	0.346	32.4%	6.0%	10.5%	55.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.380	0.375	35.3%	4.0%	16.7%	26.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,300
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%
	2018	10	4.60	6.19	13.5%	5.5%	49.7%	33.3%	19.8%
	L14	2	4.33	2.77	20.4%	8.2%	42.9%	17.1%	28.6%

Alex Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the league this season, but he’s shown signs of turning things around of late. The right-hander has turned in back-to-back solid starts, so perhaps he’s finally rounding into form. Still, his season-long numbers leave plenty to be desired. Cobb has a strikeout rate of just 13.5% and he’s allowed a hard-hit rate over 33%. The 4.60 SIERA isn’t nearly as ugly as his 6.19 ERA, Today he gets a matchup with a respectable Blue Jays offense in a good park for power.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb may be turning things around, but the lack of strikeout upside leaves me with minimal interest.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%
	2018	12	4.90	5.29	17.3%	6.1%	27.4%	31.6%	18.9%
	L14	3	5.04	5.79	12.9%	3.2%	32.7%	28.9%	21.2%

Marco Estrada is a reverse-splits, fly ball righty facing an Orioles lineup chock full of decent right-handed hitters today. He’s been a solid source of strikeouts in his career, but this season his strikeout rate is down to 17.3%. He hasn’t pitched as poorly as his 5.29 ERA may indicate, and the O’s do have a way of coming up small in potentially favorable matchups. Given the risk, though, I’m likely taking a pass on Estrada against a team with plenty of right-handed pop.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is playable as a punt SP2, but I wouldn’t feel great about it.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Marco Estrada is a guy known to serve up dongs, so I like a few of the Orioles’ right-handed hitters in this one. Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop are the best of the bunch, while Trey Mancini is a secondary option if he finds his way into a favorable lineup spot. The rest of the Orioles are a little too boom-or-bust for my liking, so I’ll just stick with their big name bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.278	0.255	0.080	26.9%	10.5%	26.7%	48.1%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,700	2B	$5,400
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.368	0.366	0.227	36.4%	2.2%	18.5%	39.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.384	0.280	0.288	33.1%	10.9%	16.7%	34.5%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,000	3B	$10,500
4	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.213	0.187	0.172	20.9%	0.8%	26.2%	47.8%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,400
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.354	0.365	0.127	45.3%	4.0%	24.0%	41.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	DH	$6,500
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.273	0.225	0.041	31.8%	8.1%	36.3%	47.7%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,500
7	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.332	0.299	0.175	36.4%	4.9%	23.0%	40.9%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
8	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.380	0.262	0.122	34.8%	10.1%	22.6%	48.2%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,800
9	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.286	0.361	0.097	34.0%	8.3%	36.7%	44.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
	Team Averages		0.319	0.289	0.148	33.3%	6.6%	25.6%	43.6%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Alex Cobb has been bad this season, but I do think it’s reasonable to expect him to keep improving as the year goes on. Even so, it’s not like he’s a guy to avoid given what we’ve seen from him this season. The Jays are viable in all formats. Justin Smoak is the best target as usual, with Kendrys Morales, Yangervis Solarte and Teoscar Hernandez also looking playable. Randal Grichuk and Russell Martin are viable values.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.351	0.271	0.168	40.5%	15.9%	30.5%	34.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,600
2	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.343	0.261	0.182	30.8%	8.2%	17.1%	41.0%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
3	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.398	0.249	0.250	38.9%	4.0%	21.8%	36.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,200
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.404	0.389	0.250	36.5%	18.2%	26.0%	31.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,500
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.357	0.295	0.162	37.6%	6.0%	18.6%	40.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.317	0.301	0.171	34.3%	13.6%	25.6%	50.7%	C	$2,300	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.326	0.268	0.227	37.9%	8.0%	32.0%	48.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,300
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.364	0.318	0.271	39.7%	4.4%	13.3%	43.8%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,700
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.254	0.295	0.067	18.9%	4.9%	26.8%	66.0%	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.346	0.294	0.194	35.0%	9.2%	23.5%	43.6%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez, Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Detroit
			Corey Kluber							Artie Lewicki
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-225							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.234	0.265	36.8%	3.8%	29.1%	44.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.382	33.3%	11.4%	11.4%	40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.297	36.6%	2.1%	26.1%	50.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.416	48.6%	8.2%	20.4%	45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$13,600	Salary:		$26,600
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%
	2018	13	2.82	1.96	27.5%	2.9%	48.1%	36.7%	16.7%
	L14	3	1.98	0.47	32.9%	0.0%	47.9%	51.0%	6.1%

Corey Kluber endured a wobbly stretch by his standards in late-April and early-May, but he’s rounded into form nicely. The former Cy Young winner has a strikeout rate over 27% this season and he has kept the walks to a bare minimum. His 36.7% hard-hit rate is higher than we’re used to seeing, but his 2.82 SIERA is stellar. Kluber is a guy that will give up some homers, but he gets a favorable matchup today against a Tigers lineup largely devoid of talent. Kluber is one of the best pitching options of the day.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Artie Lewicki
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,400	Salary:		$8,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2017	1	5.51	6.10	11.5%	7.7%	40.5%	26.2%	11.9%
	2018	1	4.54	3.86	16.7%	9.5%	43.5%	41.9%	12.9%
	L14	1	4.25	2.53	15.6%	8.9%	55.9%	47.1%	14.7%

Artie “Ziff” Lewicki has made 7 appearances for the Tigers this season, including a start. He started a game last week at Fenway, and things didn’t go well. Artie was tagged for 4 runs on 5 hits in just 3.2 innings of work. He threw 71 pitches, which was one short of his season-high. Lewicki likely isn’t stretched out enough to go much deeper than that, and to make matters worse, he’s facing the Indians today.

Quick Breakdown: Lewicki is one of the worst pitching options on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians get a strong matchup today against Artie Lewicki, who has a 16.7% K-rate and has allowed a hard contact rate nearing 42%. We don’t have a large major league sample size with which to work, but Lewicki has looked plenty hittable for hitters from either side of the plate. The Indians don’t come cheap, but they stand out as a stout stack this afternoon.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.414	0.389	0.280	40.0%	9.5%	21.1%	29.7%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,300
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.443	0.459	0.246	46.0%	7.2%	9.8%	43.7%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,500
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.421	0.446	0.372	33.1%	16.0%	10.7%	33.8%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,500	IF/OF	$10,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.395	0.472	0.303	38.5%	7.7%	25.4%	35.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,100
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.372	0.392	0.199	38.0%	9.2%	23.9%	38.3%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.352	0.342	0.084	38.4%	9.1%	18.7%	38.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.270	0.250	0.149	35.4%	4.6%	33.9%	32.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
8	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.328	0.175	0.050	47.1%	12.5%	12.5%	29.4%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,900
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.309	0.370	0.161	40.9%	7.4%	26.5%	43.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.367	0.366	0.205	39.7%	9.2%	20.3%	36.2%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are facing Corey Kluber today. If you want to load on up Tigers against Corey Kluber, I don’t really know what to tell you. I don’t see a reason to get cute here, so the Tigers are a full fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.432	0.379	0.212	40.2%	9.9%	17.9%	34.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.376	0.347	0.183	47.5%	3.7%	21.6%	33.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,500
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.403	0.359	0.189	45.3%	12.5%	15.4%	56.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
4	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.329	0.362	0.221	34.3%	11.5%	23.6%	40.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,500
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.364	0.345	0.106	45.0%	9.9%	9.9%	35.8%	C	$2,100	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,800
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.297	0.337	0.078	34.6%	7.0%	19.0%	39.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.317	0.277	0.169	30.1%	3.3%	26.8%	39.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,700
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.270	0.340	0.089	24.5%	4.4%	12.2%	47.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.307	0.219	0.077	32.8%	6.5%	18.1%	45.7%	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,700	SS	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.344	0.329	0.147	37.1%	7.6%	18.3%	41.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Diego at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Diego								Miami
			Clayton Richard							Jose Urena
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-119							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.260	0.284	29.1%	7.7%	21.8%	71.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.364	43.4%	4.8%	16.3%	49.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.346	41.3%	8.0%	18.7%	53.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.307	42.7%	6.9%	23.5%	52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2017	32	4.06	4.79	17.6%	6.9%	59.2%	35.0%	17.3%
	2018	13	3.87	4.67	19.4%	7.9%	57.6%	38.5%	19.7%
	L14	3	3.77	4.05	17.1%	7.3%	67.2%	31.7%	18.3%

Clayton Richard isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s also not one that typically registers as an appealing DFS play. His 19.4% K-rate this season is well above his career mark of 15.2%. He’s a soft-tossing lefty that relies on generating ground balls, which is something he has been doing once again this season. He’s also yielded a hard-hit rate over 38% and he’s given up 9 long balls. The upside for Richard today is that he gets to face a weak Marlins offense in a favorable park for pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Richard is a viable SP2, though the upside is limited.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Urena
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2017	28	5.19	3.82	15.6%	8.8%	43.1%	31.8%	18.6%
	2018	13	3.92	4.60	19.6%	5.8%	50.9%	43.1%	15.1%
	L14	3	3.62	4.76	22.9%	5.7%	45.8%	51.0%	26.5%

Jose Urena has been quietly pretty solid this season. His 3.92 SIERA is far more palatable than his 4.60 ERA, and he has upped his strikeout rate to 19.6%. That’s still nothing special, but it’s an improvement. The hard contact rate over 43% is a concern, but Urena draws a favorable matchup today against the Padres. I think both pitchers in this game are viable as cheap options, though I prefer the discount you can get with rostering Urena over Richard.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is the best cheap pitching option on the slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

While I do have some interest in Urena, he’s still a right-hander that has struggled to get lefties out in his career. Those splits have held true so far this season, as he’s allowed a .324 wOBA to lefties, with 6 of his 8 homers allowed coming off the bats of those that swing it from the left side. It’s not pretty on paper, but I think you can pick your spots with some SD lefties here. Eric Hosmer is the best of the bunch, while Travis Jankowski and Cory Spangenberg are pretty solid punts at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.277	0.220	0.087	11.3%	10.7%	11.7%	68.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,300
2	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.358	0.367	0.185	38.1%	12.3%	21.8%	58.5%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,500
3	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.283	0.364	0.073	36.5%	5.8%	21.6%	59.1%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,700
4	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.356	0.398	0.234	44.4%	7.7%	21.2%	55.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,500
5	Franmil Reyes	RIGHT	0.338	0.362	0.286	44.4%	4.5%	34.1%	44.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
6	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.305	0.306	0.193	43.6%	3.2%	36.6%	38.9%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,100	2B	$5,600
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.278	0.336	0.065	38.3%	10.8%	20.5%	50.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,400
8	Raffy Lopez	LEFT	0.276	0.312	0.150	40.5%	11.4%	35.7%	24.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.229	0.139	0.182	16.7%	0.0%	52.0%	33.3%	P	$7,400	P	$7,300	P	$14,700
	Team Averages		0.300	0.312	0.162	34.9%	7.4%	28.4%	48.1%

Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Cory Spangenberg, Freddy Galvis

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

While we can attack Urena with lefties, we can do the opposite with Clayton Richard. He has stifled lefties in his career, but righties have had considerably better success. The Marlins don’t have a whole lot of appealing options, but J.T. Realmuto is an excellent catcher play. Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson look like a couple of other strong options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.391	0.348	0.118	44.2%	10.3%	15.5%	44.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.404	0.395	0.164	50.0%	12.9%	15.7%	54.0%	3B	$3,400	3B/OF	$3,600	3B	$7,700
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.379	0.399	0.233	43.5%	9.1%	21.2%	43.5%	C	$3,500	C	$4,300	C	$8,300
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.323	0.315	0.078	29.8%	16.9%	22.1%	48.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,800
5	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.339	0.302	0.093	31.1%	8.5%	15.3%	40.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
6	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.345	0.230	0.135	23.4%	11.5%	9.8%	25.5%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,900	2B	$5,600
7	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.325	0.331	0.167	23.8%	3.5%	21.1%	53.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,700
8	Yadiel Rivera	RIGHT	0.398	0.385	0.067	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	50.0%	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,600	2B	$4,600
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.029	0.039	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	0.0%	P	$6,800	P	$6,300	P	$12,700
	Team Averages		0.326	0.305	0.117	32.9%	10.9%	24.5%	40.1%

Elite Plays – Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas, Lewis Brinson

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Tampa Bay
			James Paxton							Nathan Eovaldi
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-148							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.441	0.344	28.6%	10.2%	28.8%	40.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.302	35.7%	5.6%	16.7%	64.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.224	0.289	33.9%	7.1%	31.3%	35.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.071	0.196	6.3%	4.6%	22.7%	43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Paxton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$24,000
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	24	3.45	2.98	28.3%	6.7%	44.9%	30.3%	18.0%
	2018	13	3.15	2.95	30.9%	7.7%	36.4%	33.0%	18.5%
	L14	3	3.12	1.83	29.0%	6.6%	49.0%	32.7%	16.3%

James Paxton has established himself among the league’s elite starters when healthy. Big Maple has a 30.9% strikeout rate this season, and he has one of the longest leashes in baseball. His 3.15 SIERA isn’t far worse than his 2.95 ERA, and he has been elite in terms of keeping right-handed hitters in check. He’s a rare reverse-splits lefty, which actually should work pretty well today against a righty-heavy Rays lineup. Paxton also sees a park upgrade going into the Trop. He’s an elite play any way you slice it.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar-for-dollar I prefer Paxton to Kluber today, though both are great.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30

	2018	2	3.84	3.27	20.0%	5.0%	53.3%	20.0%	26.7%
	L14	2	3.84	3.27	20.0%	5.0%	53.3%	20.0%	26.7%

Nate Eovaldi didn’t give up any hits in his first start of the year, but his second outing wasn’t as smooth. The righty allowed 4 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings while finishing with 4 punchouts. Eovaldi is a high-velocity arm that curiously doesn’t generate that many strikeouts. His career K-rate is just 17%. He does have good ground ball stuff, and he’s never been a big walks guy. I think Eovaldi has long-term upside, but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with him. The Mariners aren’t generally a team I like to target with pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi isn’t really on my radar today.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Nathan Eovaldi is a righty that has shown a pretty wide split in his career. He’s tough on righties, but lefties have given him more trouble. Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager jump to the top of the Mariners’ preferred target list, but I wouldn’t consider either to be a core play. I also have slight interest in Thunder Dan Vogelbach as a cheap lefty with power that nobody will play. I don’t have major interest in the righties here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.292	0.152	0.085	17.4%	2.0%	16.0%	52.3%	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,300
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.340	0.362	0.141	30.9%	4.4%	13.7%	54.7%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,000
3	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.412	0.317	0.243	40.4%	11.2%	23.0%	40.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.369	0.399	0.211	36.5%	4.1%	20.0%	49.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,700
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.341	0.274	0.222	39.5%	6.5%	17.2%	34.1%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.362	0.316	0.185	39.4%	3.1%	23.4%	43.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,500	3B	$6,500
7	Denard Span	LEFT	0.351	0.315	0.159	33.6%	14.1%	12.8%	39.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
8	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.354	0.303	0.145	24.1%	16.0%	14.8%	44.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,700
9	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.356	0.333	0.242	41.4%	4.8%	35.6%	39.7%	C	$2,400	C	$3,400	C	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.353	0.308	0.181	33.7%	7.4%	19.6%	44.1%

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Dan Vogelbach

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays get a brutal matchup against James Paxton. While they have some righties we occasionally like to target against southpaws, Paxton’s reverse-splits help negate their effectiveness. Wilson Ramos is a power-hitting catcher, so I always at least have fleeting interest in rostering him. That said, the Rays are likely a 100% fade for me.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.411	0.298	0.260	31.0%	18.8%	14.1%	45.2%	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,600	2B	$7,300
2	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.366	0.402	0.235	38.3%	6.7%	28.0%	38.3%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,700
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.290	0.353	0.019	31.6%	7.1%	25.0%	65.8%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,100	3B	$5,600
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.402	0.403	0.179	42.2%	5.1%	18.6%	48.9%	C	$2,400	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
5	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.259	0.352	0.196	25.0%	1.6%	32.8%	16.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,700
6	Jake Bauers	LEFT								1B	$2,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,700
7	Johnny Field	RIGHT	0.365	0.206	0.256	38.7%	4.4%	26.7%	40.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,500
8	Christian Arroyo	RIGHT	0.305	0.287	0.125	40.0%	11.1%	33.3%	80.0%	3B	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.378	0.376	0.195	44.8%	20.8%	22.6%	44.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600	IF/OF	$4,500
	Team Averages		0.347	0.335	0.183	36.5%	9.5%	25.1%	47.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 10th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

San Diego at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Seattle at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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