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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 18th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-19 03:33:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Toronto
Article Image James Shields Article Image J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-170 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.350 28.0% 11.6% 14.5% 43.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.356 36.4% 6.5% 17.3% 46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.360 38.8% 9.1% 19.3% 35.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.317 29.8% 7.4% 22.3% 42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.12 5.85 16.4% 10.0% 40.4% 33.8% 15.3%
2017 3 5.25 1.62 23.2% 14.5% 27.9% 27.9% 27.9%

Welcome to the MLB Grind Down. Today is Father’s Day so if you are a dad hopefully you’ll have some time to toss i n a few lineups and enjoy some baseball. We have a ten game early slate and then a five game late slate. The main slate look excellent with a couple of decent pitching options and a few pitchers to pick on. We’ll start with James Shields who is somewhere between those two options.

Shields has a 1.62 ERA in three starts this season but he’s been extremely lucky. His SIERA of 5.25 is much closer to the pitcher he’s been over the past couple of seasons. One of the main areas where Shields is getting lucky is 100% left on base rate. He’s allowed one run in each start this season and each time it was a home run. His other six hits on the year have all been stranded. Shields is getting more strikeouts this year but he’s still an extreme fly ball pitcher. The Blue Jays own a 20.5% K rate, .313 wOBA and 92 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Shields can easily be avoided today against a tough Blue Jays offense. His luck in stranding runners is going to run out at some point and lead to a massive blowup.

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 6 3.42 4.31 25.9% 5.2% 47.3% 29.0% 17.2%

Through six starts this season, J.A. Happ owns a 4.31 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, 25.9% K rate and 5.2% BB rate. The White Sox are a popular team to target but they are actually a competent offense against LH pitching. They own an 18.2% K rate, .359 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Both their wOBA and wRC+ rank best in the league against LH pitching. For that reason, Happ deserves a slight downgrade.

Quick Breakdown: Whether we use Happ today is somewhat of a tough call. He’s best utilized as an SP2. He’s priced in the same range as Jimmy Nelson, Kenta Maeda and Jameson Taillion. Happp we’lll probably be higher owned today than he deserves to be simply because people will see the White Sox but not consider their splits. He’s a low end SP2 play today in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

With a couple of really bad pitchers on the slate today, we’ll want to focus as much as possible on picking on those bad pitchers. Using White Sox against Happ is one spot that will go overlooked. He owns a .309 wOBA vs. LH and .293 wOBA vs. RH over the past two seasons. In tournaments, there are some value plays that do make sense. Avisail Garcia owns a .367 wOBA vs. LH pitching and a 42.77% hard contract rate. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera and Matt Davidson also hit LH pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.266 0.264 0.028 19.7% 2.5% 17.7% 58.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.356 0.290 0.189 30.9% 5.4% 14.8% 42.9% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.393 0.415 0.234 42.7% 8.9% 18.8% 44.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.367 0.366 0.172 42.4% 7.3% 21.9% 54.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.334 0.345 0.259 31.4% 13.8% 25.1% 22.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.394 0.339 0.262 26.7% 7.6% 24.2% 31.1% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.327 0.294 0.097 38.4% 2.5% 26.9% 55.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.200 0.216 0.106 23.7% 0.0% 18.8% 56.8% C $2,700 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.288 0.267 0.136 18.1% 7.1% 19.4% 50.0% 2B $2,900 2B $2,700 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

As I’ve pointed out above, James Shields is a fly ball pitcher. In three starts this season his fly ball rate has been 58.1%. Stacking against a fly ball pitcher is a great way to find a home run but can also lead to several long outs. Shields has allowed a home run in every start though and the 100% strand rate isn’t going to hold forever. He has a .368 wOBA vs. LH and .370 vs. RH hitters over the past two seasons. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista are the top plays here as they both hit RH pitching well. You could certainly stack this lineup up with Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales or anyone in the top seven of the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.294 0.297 0.116 25.9% 5.1% 15.0% 48.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.410 0.406 0.286 40.3% 14.6% 18.8% 40.5% 3B $4,100 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.363 0.366 0.221 38.3% 16.2% 21.3% 36.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.317 0.395 0.200 40.5% 8.7% 19.0% 49.2% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.346 0.362 0.244 41.8% 10.9% 30.8% 29.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.320 0.349 0.183 34.0% 7.0% 18.2% 41.8% SS $2,800 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.327 0.320 0.167 31.0% 11.7% 27.0% 49.5% C $2,300 3B/C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.327 0.338 0.160 29.8% 9.0% 18.0% 46.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 1B $6,800
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.260 0.276 0.143 28.9% 6.7% 22.0% 47.7% 2B $2,100 SS $2,500 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Washington at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
Article Image Joe Ross Article Image Jacob deGrom
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-150 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.370 0.348 35.0% 8.3% 19.7% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.312 32.2% 7.9% 23.2% 43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.291 28.1% 3.7% 23.8% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.309 33.8% 6.9% 27.9% 48.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Ross
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 7 3.56 6.16 24.6% 4.2% 39.1% 36.4% 23.7%

In his career, Joe Ross owns a .366 wOBA vs. LH and .263 wOBA vs. RH hitters. His K% also drops from 24.3% against RH hitters down to 18.3% against LH hitters. A matchup with the Mets is one of the worst possible matchup for Ross as they can load their lineup with LH hitters. When he faced this team earlier this year he gave up five run in four innings of work with five Ks.

Quick Breakdown: There’s entirely too much risk here to take a chance on Ross. Sure, it’s baseball and anything can happen but you ideally don’t want to use a pitcher against a team that is built perfectly to target that pitcher.

Jacob deGrom
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 13 3.65 4.33 28.8% 9.8% 46.2% 36.3% 20.8%

Jacob deGrom is an interesting option today. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on the early slate behind Robbie Ray. His 28.8% K rate this season has been elite while his 4.33 ERA and 9.8% BB rate have not. On one hand, the Nationals are a tough matchup for RH pitching with a 19.1% K rate, .341 wOBA and 112 wRC+. On the other hand, deGreom has already faced them twice this year (booth in April) with 12 and 13 strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: deGrom will likely be high-owned as the price here is fair. He has the potential to put up a high score but there is also the possibility that things go south in a hurry. deGrom is best suited for multi-pitcher sites as it is more difficult to find two great options. On FanDuel, if we listed pitchers in tiers, deGrom honestly deserves a downgrade to the Maeda, Nelson, Taillion and Farmer tier. You certainly can use deGrom in cash games but I’ll likely save some money and go with a cheaper option.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals have the second lowest implied team total on the slate. With all kinds of offensive firepower there’s no reason to use hitters against deGrom except maybe in the deepest of tournaments. The problem here is that the Nationals aren’t really being offered at any kind of discount. Harper, Turner and Murphy all hit RH pitching well but deGrom isn’t your average RH pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.388 0.333 0.235 31.2% 4.7% 18.1% 46.5% SS $4,200 SS $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.310 0.237 0.202 30.8% 5.3% 26.3% 42.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.394 0.245 35.3% 18.7% 15.9% 40.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.330 0.335 0.193 35.6% 5.6% 23.1% 45.2% 1B $4,200 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.410 0.398 0.242 38.3% 6.4% 9.0% 35.5% 2B $4,000 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.341 0.346 0.189 35.0% 9.6% 17.5% 37.0% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.308 0.320 0.160 33.2% 6.6% 17.8% 37.3% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.280 0.273 0.160 31.5% 5.4% 31.6% 42.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.172 0.157 0.024 16.7% 2.3% 41.9% 73.9% P $8,000 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Mets

As mentioned above, the way to target Joe Ross is with LH hitting. In seven starts this season, his splits are even more drastic with a .460 wOBA vs. LH and .350 wOBA vs. RH hitters. With many players focused on other offensive options, the Mets LH hitters will go overlooked. Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto and Lucas Duda are excellent options here. They all three have a hard contact rate over 40% against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.372 0.369 0.254 43.7% 12.7% 23.6% 36.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.265 0.264 0.115 25.9% 7.3% 16.1% 37.3% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,300
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.357 0.357 0.246 38.8% 8.2% 20.0% 36.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.377 0.369 0.304 42.1% 9.3% 20.5% 35.7% OF $3,000 1B/OF $4,700 RF $9,200
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.298 0.284 0.135 29.9% 6.2% 16.0% 37.9% 3B $2,400 2B/3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.351 0.382 0.230 41.0% 11.7% 22.1% 33.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.284 0.304 0.127 33.6% 6.1% 17.1% 47.4% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.265 0.264 0.115 25.9% 7.3% 16.1% 37.3% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.237 0.249 0.035 26.0% 4.6% 18.5% 56.8% P $9,800 P $10,600 P $20,400

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Lucas Duda

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Detroit
Article Image Jacob Faria Article Image Buck Farmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-105 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.196 0.176 16.7% 12.5% 12.5% 66.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.283 24.1% 14.9% 22.3% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.187 0.382 80.0% 6.7% 26.7% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.290 26.9% 10.8% 26.5% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob Faria
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 3.97 1.42 21.7% 8.7% 50.0% 56.3% 12.5%

Jacob Faria finally got the call to the majors after striking out 34.7% of batters in eleven starts in AAA this season. That mark would be his highest ever for a full season in the minors. He’s made two tarts this season at the MLB level. One was against the White Sox and one was against the Blue Jays. He has 13 Ks in 12.2 innings of work. While Faria has shown excellent ground ball ability, he’s allowing way too much hard contact at 56.3%.

Quick Breakdown: A matchup against the Tigers probably isn’t the spot to deploy Faria. He could post a huge game if the strikeouts are there today but he’s no longer a minimum-priced option. Today is a great day to take the wait-and-see approach. If Faria dominates this Tigers lineup then we’ll consider him next time out. If he gets dominated, maybe his price will drop and then we can still consider him next start.

Buck Farmer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.97 4.60 20.6% 15.3% 51.8% 25.3% 25.3%
2017 2 2.75 0.00 34.8% 6.5% 37.0% 25.9% 11.1%

Buck Farmer has made three starts this season. He dominated the White Sox (37.3 DK), pitched well against the Angels (26.6 DK) and then got slaughtered by the Diamondbacks (-4.2 DK). Today, he gets a matchup with a Rays team that owns a 25.3% K rate, .331 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against RH pitching. They also have the highest ISO in the league against RH pitching. In short, the Rays are a strikeout happy team that features all kinds of power. It really does appear that Farmer has turned the corner this season. His main issue last year was a 15.3% BB rate.

Quick Breakdown: Farmer is in play in tournaments on FanDuel with the caveat that there is some risk of getting blown up. He’s nearly a lock as an SP2 on DK though at just $5,800. Hopefully, the people who owned Farmer against the Diamondbacks will be scared away here lowering Farmer’s ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

In his short MLB career, the way to pick on Farmer has been with LH hitters. Dating back to 2014, Farmer has a .402 wOBA vs. LH and .352 wOBA vs. RH hitters. It’s probably unfair to use those numbers though as Farmer certainly had his struggles early on. In 15 innings this season, Farmer has a .219 wOBA vs. LH and .354 vs. RH. That’s too small of a sample to trust though as the RH split is skewed by two home runs compared to zero allowed to LH. If you want to hunt for a home run here, Corey Dickerson is your best bet. He owns a .356 wOBA vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.365 0.268 0.159 21.3% 10.3% 19.1% 59.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.322 0.277 33.1% 6.1% 22.0% 34.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.352 0.352 0.237 35.8% 6.2% 19.9% 35.4% 3B $3,700 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.338 0.364 0.235 39.0% 10.9% 23.0% 40.4% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.344 0.317 0.203 31.4% 10.0% 31.2% 41.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.315 0.310 0.197 37.7% 9.5% 30.0% 36.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
7 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.288 0.271 0.133 30.5% 9.6% 26.6% 49.1% OF $2,800 OF $2,800 SS $4,800
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.239 0.269 0.134 31.3% 6.8% 31.9% 33.8% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.288 0.271 0.133 30.5% 9.6% 26.6% 49.1% OF $2,800 OF $2,800 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Detroit

The Tigers also have a difficult matchup against Jacob Faria. In the majors, he’s shown elite ground ball ability at 48.5%. He’s allowed nine hits facing a total of 49 batters. The main issue for Faria is a 45.5% hard contact rate. The top six Tigers in today’s projected lineup have a hard contact rate over 34% with five of those six at 39% or higher. The Tigers aren’t cash game viable as Faria could end up being really good but a low-owned Tigers stack could be worth a shot in tournaments. It is a long shot though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.338 0.324 0.165 34.8% 7.1% 16.1% 34.1% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.386 0.402 0.245 49.0% 17.6% 34.2% 39.7% C $3,000 1B/C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.384 0.455 0.234 41.7% 10.5% 16.8% 41.0% 1B $3,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.382 0.401 0.248 42.1% 10.7% 26.2% 43.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.343 0.346 0.238 39.6% 8.7% 29.2% 38.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.349 0.387 0.191 40.1% 7.3% 25.2% 35.2% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Alex Presley LEFT 0.260 0.292 0.120 33.7% 7.7% 18.5% 45.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,300 LF $4,500
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.233 0.270 0.084 31.4% 5.9% 28.1% 42.1% C $2,400 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.273 0.257 0.074 18.0% 4.9% 12.7% 54.9% SS $2,200 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Alex Avila and Ian Kinsler

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers Cincinnati
Article Image Kenta Maeda Article Image Bronson Arroyo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-155 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.323 32.5% 9.6% 19.6% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.444 0.397 38.5% 9.2% 13.5% 28.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.256 24.0% 4.8% 29.8% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.393 0.324 30.9% 4.3% 13.9% 32.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.69 3.48 25.0% 7.0% 43.9% 29.0% 20.0%
2017 10 3.88 4.95 24.8% 7.1% 34.4% 25.6% 21.3%

Kenta Maeda is one arm that I’ve mentioned several times above. Through 10 starts he owns a 4.95 ERA, 24.8% K rate and 7.1% BB rate. The Reds are a top 10 offense using ISO (.188) against RH pitching but also own a 21% K rate, .311 wOBA and 100 wRC+. As a reminder, wRC+ is a park adjusted metric where 100 is league average. Maeda faced this same Reds team on 6/9 and posted a 17.2 on DK. He struck out six in four innings of work but was limited to 60 pitches. That’s always a risk with Maeda. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in two starts this season but he’s otherwise been held under 83 in eight of his other nine starts.

Quick Breakdown: Maeda is cash game viable on every site but his price on likely has me going a different direction. He’s firmly in play on DK though at just $7,200 in any format.

Bronson Arroyo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 5.38 7.01 13.7% 6.2% 30.8% 33.7% 17.3%

As usual, Bronson Arroyo is one of the top targets to stack against today. He owns a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts with a K rate of 13.7%. His 48.5% fly ball rate this season has not done him in favors pitching at Great American Ballpark. Arroyo is allowing a .444 wOBA vs. LH and .393 vs. RH hitters this season. We don’t need to waste a lot of time here, Arroyo isn’t a usable option.

Quick Breakdown: Arroyo is not in play in any format.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have the highest implied team total on the slate. It’s bombs away with batters from either side as Arroyo is allowing a .444 wOBA vs. LH and .393 vs. RH hitters this season. Everyone in the lineup is viable but Corey Seager and Justin Turner grade out as the two top plays. They both own a wOBA over .390 against RH pitching. Chase Utley, Cody Bellinger and Yasmani Grandal all deserve a look as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.339 0.332 0.161 38.6% 8.8% 17.2% 46.3% 2B $2,400 1B/2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.392 0.402 0.214 41.5% 10.6% 17.6% 45.1% SS $3,500 SS $4,500 SS $8,700
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.393 0.377 0.229 36.5% 6.0% 16.9% 33.6% 3B $3,600 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.367 0.313 0.341 42.5% 10.8% 31.7% 35.1% OF $3,900 1B/OF $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
5 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.331 0.302 0.176 28.0% 11.0% 26.7% 54.3% OF $3,300 2B/OF $4,000 2B $7,600
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.352 0.341 0.244 38.4% 10.8% 26.6% 43.6% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,600
7 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.370 0.353 0.252 39.5% 12.9% 26.5% 40.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.320 0.320 0.159 33.3% 7.8% 20.9% 49.5% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.146 0.128 0.071 8.2% 1.6% 21.9% 53.8% P $8,700 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Corey Seager and Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Cody Bellinger and Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Cincinnati

If you want to target Kenta Maeda, the way to do it is with LH hitters. He owns a .323 wOBA vs. LH with a 19.6% K rate. Those same numbers against RH are .262 wOBA and 29.6% K rate. Joey Votto is the main bat that Maeda will be worried about as he owns a .423 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Scott Schebler and Scooter Gennett are the other Reds LH likely to be in the lineup but I won’t be going there myself.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.080 19.2% 1.8% 13.9% 43.6% 2B $2,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.330 0.292 0.177 31.5% 5.5% 20.4% 42.6% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $4,000 2B $7,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.437 0.253 39.8% 17.4% 14.3% 37.5% 1B $4,500 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.333 0.329 0.254 36.7% 5.8% 26.9% 33.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.318 0.316 0.156 33.4% 8.2% 23.6% 41.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.343 0.336 0.216 36.0% 7.7% 21.3% 49.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.080 19.2% 1.8% 13.9% 43.6% 2B $2,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.315 0.333 0.127 31.3% 9.1% 14.1% 45.1% C $2,500 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Bronson Arroyo RIGHT 0.176 0.257 0.000 7.1% 0.0% 36.4% 36.4% P $5,600 P $4,200 P $8,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET

St. Louis Baltimore
Article Image Lance Lynn Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-100 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.349 33.0% 13.3% 18.2% 44.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.392 0.329 31.8% 11.8% 22.0% 44.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.198 0.252 27.0% 5.1% 27.0% 47.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.328 32.0% 10.4% 17.8% 50.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.31 2.88 22.5% 9.3% 45.9% 30.1% 18.3%

Lance Lynn has made 12 starts this season after missing last year with injury. He owns a 2.88 ERA and 22.5% K rate. The main thing to be aware of with Lynn are his splits. He checks in at .362 wOBA, 13.3% BB rate, 18.2% K rate vs. LH hitters. Against RH hitters, those numbers are .198 wOBA, 5.1% BB rate, 27% K rate. With no Chris Davis, the Orioles could have as few as two LH hitters today. That makes Lynn somewhat intriguing here.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn grades out somewhere in the middle of the pack today. With plenty of other options, I won’t be going here myself but I’m also not expecting him to get crushed as his ground ball ability will limit damage. He just needs to work his way around the few LH batters the Orioles deploy today.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 8 4.61 6.71 19.6% 10.2% 46.0% 34.3% 16.9%

Alec Asher was originally scheduled to start today but ended up pitching yesterday. That means we’ll get Ubaldo Jimenez today instead. In eight starts this season, Jimenez owns a 6.71 ERA, 19.6% K rate and 10.2% BB rate. He’s been rather unlucky with a 21.1% HR/FB rate when his career average had been 9.9%. That will happen though when you are allowing 34.3% hard contact. Jimenez is best targeted with LH hitters as he owns a .423 wOBA vs. LH this season and has allowed 10 of his 12 home runs to LH bats.

Quick Breakdown: Jimenez is not a usable pitching option but we can certainly stack against him, especially with any Cardinals LH bats in the lineup.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The two top options here are the Cardinals LH batters at the top of the order in Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. They both hit RH pitching extremely well. I have less for the rest of the lineup but you could get away with someone like Jedd Gyorko who owns a .359 wOBA vs. RH pitching. A Cardinals mini stack is also viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.377 0.408 0.251 46.1% 15.2% 19.8% 27.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.357 0.344 0.189 31.1% 13.8% 24.4% 36.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 CF $9,000
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.335 0.351 0.162 32.9% 8.3% 20.8% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.359 0.341 0.265 35.6% 7.4% 24.1% 42.6% 3B $2,900 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.328 0.332 0.122 31.4% 6.2% 11.5% 47.6% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.350 0.348 0.192 43.9% 11.2% 31.1% 53.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.355 0.310 0.209 29.5% 6.5% 13.0% 44.8% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
8 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.262 0.323 0.074 28.6% 8.3% 21.7% 53.7% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
9 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.228 0.249 0.143 21.7% 0.0% 34.3% 47.8% 2B $2,100 2B $3,600 3B $7,200

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler

Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Baltimore

As I mentioned above, Lance Lynn is a different pitcher against LH hitters. He owns a .362 wOBA and 13.3% BB rate. Seth Smith is the best option here as he owns a .336 wOBA vs. RH pitching. The only issue with Smith is that he has a 46% ground ball rate and Lynn is decent at generating ground balls. I’m indifferent with the rest of the Orioles. There are enough other good hitting options that there isn’t a reason to use Orioles RH hitters against Lynn.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.336 0.367 0.173 32.9% 11.0% 21.2% 46.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.341 0.194 32.1% 5.3% 16.3% 43.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.343 0.356 0.237 34.8% 6.8% 19.4% 37.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.379 0.260 37.3% 8.5% 23.4% 40.1% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.383 0.358 0.261 38.1% 8.0% 27.0% 42.9% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.338 0.315 0.200 29.2% 3.3% 19.9% 42.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.304 0.296 0.130 33.5% 5.9% 26.9% 40.9% C $3,200 C $4,100 C $8,100
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.351 0.348 0.117 28.9% 9.4% 14.6% 51.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.279 0.286 0.110 29.2% 4.5% 17.0% 43.9% SS $2,100 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.