MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 26th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Philadelphia at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Philadelphia Arizona
Article Image Nick Pivetta Article Image Zack Greinke
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-260 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.295 30.0% 13.6% 24.7% 38.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.301 32.8% 5.4% 23.7% 47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 0.377 41.8% 7.8% 25.5% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.289 31.5% 6.0% 22.8% 45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Pivetta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.29 4.46 25.1% 10.4% 37.1% 36.8% 12.0%

It’s a strange Monday in that we have two day games and six evening games. Pivetta has shown some upside in the minors and is coming off of his best two major league starts. In his last two outings, he has 19 strikeouts and has only given up a combined three earned runs. While it’s nice to see the potential, he is an easy fade in a road start against the Diamondbacks. Not only is this a terrible ballpark for pitchers, but he has Zack Greinke pitching opposite him. Pivetta comes into this game as the biggest underdog in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta has flashed some upside, but this isn’t the spot to target him in DFS.

Zack Greinke
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $12,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 16 Salary Rank: 2 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.11 4.37 20.1% 6.2% 45.9% 30.7% 20.3%
2017 15 3.20 3.14 28.7% 4.9% 47.2% 35.0% 21.0%

Greinke is living up to that big contract that the Diamondbacks gave him before last season. In his 15 starts this year, he has a 3.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 5%. His hard contact rate is up a bit, but we are willing to overlook that with a strikeout rate this high. Even though he’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, he draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, who are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Greinke is the top pitching option in the early slate and second only to Chris Sale in the all-day slate.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are playing in a hitter’s park, but draw one of the worst matchups in the entire slate. Over the last two seasons, Zack Greinke has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. There aren’t many options in the early two-game slate, but the Phillies are an easy fade.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Perkins RIGHT OF $2,000 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.326 0.333 0.132 34.8% 7.1% 18.4% 59.1% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.310 0.294 0.141 33.7% 8.8% 31.0% 46.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.320 0.323 0.198 38.3% 5.2% 23.2% 42.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.290 0.319 0.146 28.7% 6.6% 16.2% 45.7% 3B $3,000 3B $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.337 0.311 0.154 29.6% 8.3% 20.3% 42.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.302 0.274 0.175 28.0% 5.7% 21.1% 40.4% SS $2,700 SS $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.281 0.302 0.156 31.0% 6.3% 29.5% 47.6% C $2,200 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.219 0.127 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 22.2% 60.0% P $6,500 P $7,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have the highest implied run total in the early slate and are second only to the Yankees in the all-day slate. They draw a boom or bust matchup against Nick Pivetta, who has allowed a .377 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The sample size is still small, but Pivetta appears to be a reverse-splits pitcher. That doesn’t mean that we should avoid the lefties in the lineup, but Paul Goldschmidt stands out in this matchup. He has a .378 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.297 0.278 0.100 25.1% 11.7% 21.1% 45.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.344 0.317 0.158 36.5% 6.2% 17.2% 54.6% OF $3,500 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.394 0.385 0.225 39.8% 13.8% 20.9% 44.9% 1B $4,700 1B $5,800 N/A N/A
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.392 0.378 0.289 40.9% 11.7% 23.9% 42.5% 3B $3,800 3B $5,300 N/A N/A
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.312 0.292 0.148 31.9% 4.3% 20.4% 48.0% SS $3,200 OF/SS $5,000 N/A N/A
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.348 0.316 0.179 33.2% 6.7% 20.4% 49.5% 2B $2,800 2B $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.336 0.326 0.168 32.1% 11.8% 19.0% 44.1% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.194 0.191 0.072 24.8% 1.1% 30.3% 43.4% C $2,100 C $2,100 N/A N/A
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.178 0.300 0.017 28.6% 3.0% 13.4% 49.0% P $9,900 P $12,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Chris Owings

Secondary Plays – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Drury

Stackability – GREEN


Cincinnati at St. Louis – 4:15 PM ET

Cincinnati St. Louis
Article Image Brandon Finnegan Article Image Michael Wacha
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-155 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.304 27.1% 12.7% 17.9% 43.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.322 29.5% 9.1% 18.5% 44.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.352 37.6% 11.7% 21.2% 37.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.318 28.8% 7.1% 20.6% 47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon Finnegan
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 13 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.92 3.98 19.8% 11.4% 38.1% 35.9% 16.4%
2017 3 5.04 2.70 31.8% 20.5% 57.1% 19.1% 19.1%

Finnegan is making his fourth start of the season and his first in nearly a month and a half, after being placed on the DL with a shoulder injury. He is a promising young lefty that has strikeout upside, but can struggle with his command at times. He had a walk rate of 11% last season and it was up to 20% in his first three starts before his injury this season. He’s a pitcher that we’ll want to monitor moving forward, but is an easy fade in a road start against the Cardinals. Not only is he an underdog, but he will likely be on a pitch count.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Finnegan in all formats.

Michael Wacha
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: 12 of 16 Salary Rank: of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 13 4.44 4.76 21.4% 9.2% 46.2% 27.0% 20.6%

I was a lot higher on Wacha in the early part of the season. After the first month of play, his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction. His strikeout rate has dipped to right around the major league average, his walk rate has come up, and he hasn’t scored more than 28 fantasy points (FD scoring) in any of his last six starts. With all of that said, he is the clear number two in the early-only slate. If you are playing in the all-day slate, Zack Greinke is really the only viable option. Wacha’s matchup against the Reds is less than appealing, as Cincinnati ranks seventh in team wOBA and 12th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is only in play as an SP2 because there aren’t any better options. In a bigger slate, this would be a good spot to fade him.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds see a negative ballpark shift playing in St. Louis, but draw a decent matchup against Michael Wacha, who has allowed 23 earned runs in his last six starts. Despite Wacha’s recent form, the Reds will get overlooked in the early slate, making them intriguing tournament options. Wacha has fairly neutral splits against left and right-handed hitters, but Joey Votto seems to have him figured out. In 37 career plate appearances, Votto has 12 hits (six extra-base hits) and four walks against Wacha.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.299 0.250 0.077 17.9% 8.8% 20.0% 47.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.339 0.298 0.193 32.2% 5.9% 20.0% 42.2% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.421 0.436 0.254 39.6% 17.4% 14.0% 36.6% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.323 0.251 36.1% 5.9% 26.9% 33.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.313 0.315 0.155 33.1% 8.3% 23.5% 41.1% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.346 0.339 0.224 36.8% 8.4% 21.7% 49.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.303 0.296 0.087 20.6% 1.7% 14.1% 43.1% SS $2,200 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.322 0.303 0.186 21.3% 8.3% 20.2% 40.0% C $2,500 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Brandon Finnegan LEFT 0.095 0.163 0.021 20.5% 1.9% 24.5% 71.0% P $7,500 P $5,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals are the second best offense behind the Diamondbacks in the early slate. Again, in a full slate, they probably wouldn’t be on my radar in cash games, but we have such limited choices in a slate that features only two games. Brandon Finnegan will be making his first start in a month and a half and has historically struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .352 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate. Outside of Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals are expected to roll out a right-handed heavy lineup that is loaded with viable fantasy options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.330 0.363 0.165 33.1% 13.7% 20.3% 34.9% 1B $3,900 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.338 0.310 0.214 31.0% 13.0% 36.5% 43.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.381 0.360 0.223 30.5% 13.0% 16.4% 38.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.328 0.334 0.189 32.5% 8.6% 17.7% 35.1% 3B $3,100 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.340 0.354 0.147 32.7% 6.5% 11.9% 45.3% C $2,800 C $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.302 0.291 0.118 26.2% 9.5% 13.8% 45.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.314 0.322 0.212 37.3% 9.8% 26.4% 31.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.466 0.326 0.308 33.3% 7.1% 28.6% 22.2% 2B $2,500 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.000 0.086 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 41.7% 100.0% P $7,300 P $7,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Washington
Article Image Eddie Butler Article Image Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-147 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.377 38.7% 11.0% 16.2% 36.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.302 26.4% 7.1% 21.3% 55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.371 0.343 35.1% 7.8% 15.3% 50.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.318 34.1% 9.0% 22.6% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 12 of 16 Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: 10 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.53 7.17 16.0% 7.2% 45.8% 38.7% 13.1%
2017 8 5.77 4.19 15.1% 12.7% 42.9% 32.5% 19.2%

Butler is one of the best pitchers to pick on in DFS. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, he doesn’t induce many ground balls, and he gives up a decent amount of hard contact. He is an easy fade tonight against the Nationals, who are ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. We also have an over/under of 9.5 in a game being played in a pitcher’s park, which is a dead giveaway to avoid the arms.

Quick Breakdown: Butler may be the worst pitching option on the board tonight.

Gio Gonzalez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 15 4.56 2.96 22.3% 10.2% 43.7% 31.7% 21.8%

Gonzalez is skating by with a .268 BABIP and an 85% LOB%, both which are career bests. We should expect some regression moving forward, and the big difference between his ERA and SIERA is just another indicator. Gonzalez isn’t the worst pitching option on the board tonight, but he’s an easy fade in my eyes. The Cubs are ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Jeff Samardzija has a higher floor, a higher ceiling, and he’s cheaper than Gonzalez.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez may garner a little ownership tonight, but I’ll eat the chalk and play Samardzija over him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. Even though they are playing in a pitcher’s park, they are a sneaky offense to target against Gio Gonzalez, who isn’t nearly as good as his 2.96 ERA suggests. Over the last two seasons, Gonzalez has allowed a .318 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. There are quite a few value plays that we can use in this lineup and I wouldn’t rule out a Cubs’ stack in large field tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.380 0.356 0.242 27.1% 9.9% 11.9% 43.9% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.445 0.443 0.330 39.3% 17.7% 18.9% 33.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
3 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.354 0.333 0.184 30.1% 7.7% 18.1% 58.0% C $2,700 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.341 0.336 0.215 29.4% 12.7% 22.7% 38.7% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.390 0.271 0.323 25.0% 5.9% 35.3% 36.8% 2B $3,600 2B/OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.355 0.321 0.203 32.2% 7.9% 20.3% 43.9% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,200
7 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.394 0.333 0.239 28.8% 8.9% 11.9% 48.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Mark Zagunis RIGHT 0.000 0.272 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% OF $3,100 RF $6,000
9 Eddie Butler RIGHT 0.000 0.064 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 66.7% P $7,100 P $5,200 P $10,400

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Albert Almora

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Given their home run upside, I expect the Yankees to be the highest owned stack in the slate. The Nationals have just as much upside and if they are going to be lower owned, then in theory, they are the better play in tournaments. Eddie Butler is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .343+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He also has a high walk rate and is facing a Nationals’ offense that is capable of scoring double-digit runs in nearly any matchup. The one through five hitters are all elite plays and the one through seven hitters are all viable as part of a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.382 0.332 0.219 29.4% 5.1% 17.6% 47.4% SS $4,300 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.329 0.283 0.217 33.7% 8.3% 26.5% 45.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.396 0.238 34.8% 18.4% 15.9% 39.6% OF $4,500 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.332 0.340 0.195 36.5% 5.6% 22.5% 45.2% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.394 0.251 38.3% 6.8% 8.8% 35.2% 2B $4,000 2B $5,200 2B $10,000
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.345 0.348 0.190 34.8% 10.1% 17.5% 36.9% 3B $3,500 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.301 0.315 0.155 32.8% 6.4% 18.0% 38.2% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.297 0.276 0.192 33.5% 5.2% 32.4% 41.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.197 0.184 0.031 13.3% 2.6% 36.8% 52.9% P $8,800 P $9,800 P $18,900

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN


Texas at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Cleveland
Article Image Cole Hamels Article Image Carlos Carrasco
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.300 30.8% 9.1% 20.3% 56.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.309 36.8% 8.2% 24.7% 45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.328 33.0% 9.1% 22.4% 47.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.276 31.9% 4.1% 26.1% 49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.99 3.32 23.6% 9.1% 49.6% 32.0% 20.4%
2017 5 5.65 3.03 11.5% 9.2% 46.5% 36.0% 14.0%

Hamels is making his first start in two months after being placed on the DL with an oblique injury. His first five starts may not look bad in terms of his ERA, but he had a 5.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.5%. His walk rate is up this year and he is allowing a ton of hard contact. Now, five starts is a small sample and he may look better moving forward, but for now we should be staying far away from him in DFS. Not only will he be on a pitch count, but he is facing a talented Indians’ offense on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hamels in all formats.

Carlos Carrasco
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 2 of 16 Salary Rank: 3 of 16 Salary Rank: 2 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 14 3.62 2.99 26.1% 6.5% 45.9% 29.8% 18.2%

Carrasco is better on the road than he is at home. For the last couple of seasons, I figured it was something that would correct itself over time, but that hasn’t been the case. In each of the last three seasons, Carrasco has been significantly better away from Progressive Field. I’m not saying that we should automatically avoid him anytime he pitches at home, but it’s always something to keep in mind, especially in slates where we have pitchers like Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija in such good spots. Carrasco draws a tough matchup tonight against the Rangers, who aren’t a high strikeout offense now that they have Adrian Beltre back in the lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is viable in tournaments, but price aside, I’d rather have Jeff Samardzija at home against the Rockies.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are sizable underdogs in a road game against a talented pitcher. Carlos Carrasco may not be my favorite pitching option in this slate, but that doesn’t mean that I will have exposure to the Rangers’ offense. This is a situation that I will be watching from the sidelines. Over the last two seasons, Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. If you want to take a GPP flier on someone here, Carrasco does tend to struggle with left-handed power bats at home.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.343 0.386 0.172 41.3% 13.3% 21.5% 47.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.337 0.318 0.136 27.6% 7.9% 13.8% 47.8% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.339 0.338 0.189 31.6% 8.1% 18.8% 43.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.359 0.366 0.208 34.6% 6.5% 10.6% 40.0% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.326 0.296 0.239 35.1% 3.1% 22.4% 39.6% 2B $3,200 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.348 0.334 0.169 30.3% 7.2% 14.6% 43.4% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.329 0.306 0.200 34.4% 9.0% 28.7% 41.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
8 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.321 0.329 0.233 35.0% 9.9% 30.1% 36.4% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.312 0.307 0.286 41.8% 12.0% 39.9% 26.4% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Nomar Mazara (GPP), Rougned Odor (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians are going to be under-owned tonight for two reasons. First, is the name value of Cole Hamels. The second is that the Yankees, Nationals, and Dodgers are all in exploitable matchups and all have higher implied run totals. If you are looking for a contrarian stack that has the potential to score ten runs, your search might be able to stop here. Hamels has not been sharp this season and he is making his first start in two months after being placed on the DL with an oblique injury. Hamels has struggled with right-handed power hitters in the last two seasons and the Indians will likely have seven righties in their lineup tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.330 0.332 0.157 33.8% 7.0% 13.7% 45.9% SS $3,300 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.321 0.315 0.178 28.4% 6.5% 22.2% 44.1% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.354 0.342 0.172 31.5% 7.0% 13.4% 43.2% 3B $4,200 2B/3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.387 0.391 0.236 39.2% 19.3% 20.8% 41.2% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.305 0.332 0.125 30.9% 11.2% 8.8% 54.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.341 0.279 0.178 20.0% 10.3% 19.5% 41.1% OF $2,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.328 0.340 0.154 40.7% 11.0% 20.3% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.332 0.297 0.197 30.8% 6.7% 24.4% 42.2% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.328 0.280 0.100 20.3% 7.6% 3.0% 63.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,300 LF $4,500

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Austin Jackson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Minnesota at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Boston
Article Image Jose Berrios Article Image Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-220 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.337 28.3% 11.9% 18.4% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.253 25.8% 2.6% 30.4% 52.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.302 29.6% 8.5% 23.1% 40.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.271 0.283 31.9% 5.2% 28.4% 38.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 3 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 5.36 8.02 17.4% 12.5% 38.0% 33.3% 18.2%
2017 8 3.88 2.67 25.2% 7.1% 44.8% 22.8% 17.7%

In his eight starts this season, Berrios owns a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a hard contact rate of 23%. If your strikeout rate is higher than your hard contact rate, you must be doing something right as a pitcher. He has some filthy pitches and his talent is finally starting to shine on baseball’s biggest stage. He draws one of his most difficult matchups to date, as he takes on the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Berrios is a huge underdog, partly because he is playing in Boston and partly because of the opposing pitcher (Chris Sale). The matchup obviously isn’t ideal, as the Red Sox rarely strike out, but the real issue for me is the price tag. We aren’t getting any sort of discount on Berrios, even though he’s in a tough spot on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is extremely talented and will be a force in fantasy baseball for a long time, but we can avoid him tonight against the Red Sox.

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,700 Salary: $12,900 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 15 2.61 2.85 35.1% 4.6% 38.6% 29.3% 15.3%

Sale is having a season that rivals that of Clayton Kershaw. We’ve seen Sale post some monster seasons before, but this is truly impressive. Not only is he pitching in the difficult American League East, but half of his starts have come in Fenway Park. He currently owns a 2.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of only 5%. He throws a ton of strikes, which leads to a lot of strikeouts and a low pitch count. He’s also capable of throwing 115 pitches each and every time he takes the mound. He is clearly the ace in the slate and is the cash game go-to tonight. However, if you are looking for a reason to fade him in tournaments, the current Twins’ roster is batting .284 with a .343 wOBA against him in 182 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the top pitcher on the board tonight and is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

There are starts every now and then where Chris Sale will allow a few runs and potentially a home run or two to a right-handed hitter. That’s certainly in the realm of possibilities tonight against the Twins, but I’m not going to bank on it. Sale is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now and I don’t see any reason to get cute and try to target hitters against him. If you want to play the BvP angle, Brian Dozier (.407 wOBA in 41 plate appearances) and Miguel Sano (.564 wOBA in 14 plate appearances) have hit Sale well in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.403 0.348 0.307 39.3% 10.5% 19.6% 34.2% 2B $3,000 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.267 0.298 0.079 26.5% 7.8% 17.9% 58.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.379 0.354 0.292 44.7% 14.4% 33.7% 34.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.399 0.376 0.179 34.8% 15.4% 17.8% 44.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.304 0.321 0.148 32.6% 6.0% 20.9% 37.9% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,600
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.245 0.243 0.097 29.0% 7.7% 24.5% 49.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.307 0.285 0.154 28.4% 4.2% 17.6% 33.6% SS $2,600 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.333 0.349 0.227 42.9% 10.5% 32.9% 36.6% C $2,000 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.308 0.278 0.167 30.2% 11.4% 31.1% 31.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

Jose Berrios struggled in his first stint in the major leagues. He was pressing a bit too much and he didn’t have good command. After being sent back to the minors and dominating (as he always has), he has bounced back in a big way this season. The walk rate is down to 7%, he is striking batters out at a 25% clip, and he is inducing a lot of soft and medium contact. The Red Sox have a high implied run total tonight, but that has more to do with the ballpark and the fact that they are playing at home. Mookie Betts and Mitch Moreland are both intriguing, but this isn’t a situation where I want to stack the Red Sox.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.373 0.335 0.204 34.3% 8.3% 10.4% 41.9% OF $3,500 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.344 0.322 0.118 31.8% 7.8% 9.5% 50.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.350 0.296 0.152 31.2% 7.3% 16.9% 46.9% SS $3,600 SS $5,100 SS $10,000
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.321 0.365 0.202 39.8% 8.5% 23.3% 39.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.355 0.341 0.197 37.8% 8.7% 15.3% 35.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.340 0.342 0.183 37.1% 9.3% 19.6% 48.2% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.362 0.368 0.241 38.2% 11.1% 20.9% 44.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.314 0.284 0.146 34.6% 6.7% 24.8% 42.7% C $2,100 C $3,500 C $6,800
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.128 0.171 0.014 23.9% 6.3% 36.3% 65.9% SS $2,000 3B $2,400 3B $4,800

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious