MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 28th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Oakland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Oakland NY Yankees
Article Image Andrew Triggs Article Image Michael Pineda
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.302 27.5% 6.9% 21.3% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.298 33.7% 8.0% 28.7% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.284 24.0% 5.6% 21.5% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.301 30.8% 5.0% 26.6% 47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Triggs
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.29 4.31 23.1% 5.5% 50.9% 27.0% 19.2%
2017 9 4.11 2.77 19.5% 7.0% 51.0% 24.0% 15.6%

Happy Memorial Day weekend, Grinders! I’m writing this from a log cabin on a lake in the mountains of western North Carolina that (amazingly) has really solid internet. I hope everyone is getting to enjoy some time with loved ones over the long weekend. And if that gets boring, maybe you can find a few minutes to build some lineups.

It’s a typical Sunday slate, where most of the action takes place early in the day. DraftKings has an 11-game featured slate that does not include Clayton Kershaw or Coors Field, which makes the lineup build much more fun. They also offer a four-game afternoon slate (with Coors) and a really tricky four-game late slate that includes Kershaw, Lester, Cueto, and a bunch of unappealing cheap pitchers. Full disclosure: I’ll likely be fading the entire late slate on DraftKings, unless some serious value pops up that allows me to pay up for two high-end pitchers. FanDuel also has an 11-game main slate (again, no Kershaw or Coors), but they’ve yet to announce a late slate. With that, let’s get to the games.

Andrew Triggs had been a master of run prevention until he gave up five earned runs to the Red Sox in his last start. He still only allowed 25.0% hard contact in that game, but he was the victim of a .467 BABIP; I still believe in Triggs, and I’m willing to chalk that one up to bad luck. Even so, he gets below average strikeouts, and Yankee Stadium is a massive negative park shift. If we’re being optimistic, Triggs is a reverse splits pitcher who has allowed just a .202 wOBA to lefties this year (third-best in MLB), and his ground ball tendencies against lefties could neutralize the short right field porch.

Quick Breakdown: There are worse SP2 options on this slate than Triggs. But there are also far better ones (see Ross, Joe).

Michael Pineda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.40 4.82 27.4% 7.0% 45.8% 32.7% 17.2%
2017 9 2.90 3.35 28.1% 4.2% 50.7% 29.7% 14.5%

Michael Pineda enters this game as a -170 favorite at home. It feels odd to say, but Pineda has been one of the best (and most consistent) pitchers in baseball from a DFS perspective this year. He’s got a 2.89 SIERA, a mark only bettered by Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke. His 28.1% K rate is elite, and while he still gives up home runs more often than we’d like (he’s allowed at least one homer in eight of nine starts this year), he’s still one of the best in the game at limiting walks, which means the likelihood of a blowup start is minimal. His matchup on Sunday is very boom-or-bust. The Athletics strike out at a 23.3% clip against righties, fourth-highest in MLB. On the other hand, their .207 ISO against righties leads all of baseball. In Yankee Stadium, Pineda will almost certainly give up a home run or two here, which knocks him below Lance McCullers in top overall plays of the slate. But he’s simply too cheap given his 2017 output, and he’s an elite cash game and SP2 on two-pitcher sites.

Quick Breakdown: Pineda seems to be putting it all together this year, and it feels like he’s reached legitimate ace status. He’s priced a tier below typical aces, though, and if not for Lance McCullers, he’d be the top overall pitcher on the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.302 0.273 0.140 27.1% 6.3% 18.7% 47.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.348 0.370 0.214 38.0% 17.8% 21.8% 40.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.319 0.316 0.125 33.0% 8.0% 16.5% 37.1% 2B $2,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.349 0.370 0.289 41.2% 7.3% 27.9% 43.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.329 0.363 0.160 34.3% 10.0% 15.4% 39.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.325 0.328 0.190 32.1% 4.6% 23.8% 40.1% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.305 0.325 0.162 33.0% 5.7% 19.5% 43.8% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
8 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.314 0.321 0.163 26.9% 7.3% 15.4% 29.9% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.290 0.253 0.201 31.1% 6.6% 33.0% 35.1% 2B $2,400 SS $2,200 3B $4,100

Michael Pineda has pretty fairly neutral splits against lefties and righties, but with the A’s boasting MLB’s highest ISO against righties, it’s not the worst idea to target an A’s bat or two in tournaments as leverage plays if you’re not rostering Pineda. Khris Davis seems like a logical place to start, as he leads all of MLB with 25 barrels. Jed Lowrie has been the hottest hitter on the planet lately (literally – his 360 wRC+ over the last seven days leads all hitters). He’s near the minimum at FanDuel, but his price tag at DraftKings makes him basically unplayable.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie (FD)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.320 0.138 28.7% 12.8% 17.0% 48.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.429 0.382 0.311 39.9% 8.5% 22.2% 50.6% C $3,300 C $4,600 C $8,800
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.195 35.6% 9.2% 20.7% 51.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.306 0.169 30.8% 3.5% 19.3% 49.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.398 0.383 0.306 48.7% 10.4% 34.1% 42.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.319 0.318 0.159 31.6% 10.5% 26.3% 43.3% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.310 0.267 0.174 25.1% 3.4% 15.6% 41.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.336 0.306 0.156 23.5% 12.5% 17.9% 48.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.338 0.349 0.253 39.7% 11.6% 34.3% 30.0% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,600

In a small sample, Andrew Triggs has held both lefties and righties at a .301 wOBA. He’s gotten high ground balls and limited hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate, as well. He’s establishing himself as a pitcher who rarely gets tagged for too many runs (though he did allow five earned to Boston in his last start). For that reason, I’m mostly off the Yankees bats for cash games. However, Vegas has Yankees at a healthy 4.66 implied runs. If I’m taking any Yankees, it’s one of the power bats of Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez. Starlin Castro deserves a mention simply because he remains underpriced at DraftKings.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE


Texas at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Texas Toronto
Article Image Andrew Cashner Article Image Joe Biagini
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-156 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.365 0.383 37.9% 12.3% 17.1% 36.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.261 26.8% 7.1% 25.0% 59.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.323 29.9% 9.6% 17.1% 56.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.282 21.7% 5.5% 18.1% 51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.72 5.25 19.1% 10.2% 46.5% 35.8% 12.5%
2017 8 6.05 3.18 11.1% 13.2% 47.2% 28.2% 18.3%

DFS players had been clamoring for regression for Andrew Cashner all season, and they finally got it in his last start, when he was tagged for five earned runs against the Red Sox. I think there’s still more regression to be had. Cashner has walked more batters than he has struck out this season, which has led to a 6.06 SIERA. That alone is reason enough to scratch him off our lists today (and every day). But if that’s not enough, Vegas has the Blue Jays at an implied run total of 4.84 runs, fourth-highest among non-Coors teams.

Quick Breakdown: See Cashner. Fade Cashner.

Joe Biagini
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.45 3.06 21.0% 6.4% 52.2% 23.0% 17.7%
2017 4 3.23 3.75 21.0% 5.6% 59.8% 25.2% 19.4%

For someone who has yet to pitch more than five innings in a game this year, Joe Biagini seems to get a lot of love from the DFS community. And rightfully so. The converted reliever is still being stretched out as a starter (his season-high pitch count is the 77 he threw in his last start). While we can’t count on him to pitch deep into the game, there’s a lot to like here. He gets high ground balls to both lefties and righties, and he has been much better than league average at limiting hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate (although, to be fair, these numbers are certain to regress when he gains more starts, as he won’t have the luxury of always being used in favorable spots as he was when he was a reliever). Plus, he’s cheap – if he were able to earn a quality start, he would crush value. Biagini is the top option at the low end of pitchers on Sunday.

Quick Breakdown: Without a Clayton Kershaw or Coors Field bats to pay up for on the main slate, I’m not sure we have to reach down to Biagini. But he is a viable SP2 for tournaments, particularly if you want to stack up any of the pricier offenses.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.319 0.369 0.124 42.3% 13.0% 21.4% 47.8% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.331 0.321 0.136 27.7% 7.8% 13.8% 46.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.193 30.8% 7.8% 18.3% 44.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
4 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.353 0.340 0.180 32.1% 7.4% 14.8% 41.6% C $3,000 C $3,600 C $7,200
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.329 0.302 0.236 34.3% 3.3% 21.4% 39.4% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.322 0.334 0.232 34.5% 9.7% 29.7% 36.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.321 0.303 0.284 41.4% 13.4% 40.8% 21.4% 3B $2,900 3B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
8 Jared Hoying LEFT 0.287 0.261 0.103 34.0% 4.9% 18.0% 36.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.292 0.246 0.096 20.7% 7.4% 26.4% 54.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,600

Since many of Joe Biagini numbers came from his time as a reliever, it’s hard to read too much into his platoon splits. But the information that we have says he has better strikeout numbers and gets higher ground balls from lefties. Even so, Rougned Odor is underpriced across the industry and has already homered once in this revengiest of revenge spots, on Friday. Jonathan Lucroy is still cheap across the industry and gives you the rare opportunity to roster a catcher hitting out of the cleanup spot. At 97.0%, Lucroy also has the highest contact rate of any qualified hitter over the past two weeks. Joey Gallo pretty much has a permanent spot as a GPP one-off possibility whenever he faces a righty, especially when he’s in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Lucroy, Joey Gallo (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.119 26.5% 5.3% 14.9% 48.4% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.407 0.405 0.274 40.7% 14.9% 18.7% 39.6% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.365 0.371 0.220 39.1% 16.7% 22.1% 37.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.312 0.397 0.198 41.0% 8.4% 19.2% 48.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.323 0.345 0.201 42.4% 10.8% 33.2% 29.8% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.320 0.317 0.162 29.8% 11.5% 26.9% 48.8% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.356 0.190 34.7% 7.1% 17.9% 40.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.332 0.311 0.166 30.7% 5.0% 19.6% 45.0% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.297 0.271 0.107 24.9% 8.0% 20.9% 56.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,700 RF $5,400

Andrew Cashner gets high ground balls and allows lower-than-average hard contact against righties. Against lefties, his .365 wOBA since 2016 and 37.9% hard hit rate says this is the spot to attack. For a hitter with an elite .397 xwOBA against righties, Kendrys Morales feels way underpriced across the industry; he’s one of my favorite point-per-dollar hitters of the day. Justin Smoak also falls into that category, as well, though his high strikeout rate makes him a bit scarier for cash games. (side note: I read on Reddit today that Smoak leads all American League first basemen in wRC+ this year. Wow.). Apart from those lefties, though, I like a few of the righties, as well, though they don’t quite make the cut as elite plays.

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Stackability – YELLOW


Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
Article Image Danny Duffy Article Image Josh Tomlin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.214 0.219 25.7% 5.0% 31.7% 42.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.318 37.5% 2.2% 15.8% 47.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.325 36.2% 6.7% 22.6% 36.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.346 31.6% 2.9% 17.3% 40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.53 3.51 25.7% 5.8% 36.4% 36.6% 17.8%
2017 10 4.47 2.92 19.6% 8.3% 40.4% 29.4% 16.0%

After a brief dip in strikeouts for a few games this year, Danny Duffy appears to be back to last season’s form. He’s lasted seven innings, struck out six batters, and allowed two or fewer earned runs in his last three matchups. The 4.47 SIERA is a bit troublesome, and he has been on the better end of some home run variance (5.5% HR/FB rate). Even so, he’s really improved in terms of limiting hard contact, especially against opposite-handed hitters. This year, he has the 64th-highest hard hit rate against righties; last year, he had the second-highest. While the Indians do boast a talented lineup of hitters, and while they are stingy with the strikeouts, let’s not forget that this team is much weaker against southpaws. They strike out at the second-lowest rate in MLB against lefties, which limits Duffy’s ceiling. He has the 64th-highest hard hit rate this year, compared to the second-highest last season. He’s a road underdog against Josh Tomlin, which isn’t ideal, but on a slate when two pitchers (McCullers, Pineda) should soak up a ton of ownership, Duffy is a nice pivot with reasonable upside for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Doesn’t make the cut for cash games, but very interesting as a tournament pivot off the likely massive ownership of McCullers and Pineda.

Josh Tomlin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 43.8% 33.9% 16.4%
2017 9 3.85 6.70 17.8% 2.0% 44.3% 35.4% 11.2%

When the best thing anyone can say about a pitcher is, “Well…he doesn’t walk many guys,” that should tell you something. Josh Tomlin is one of those pitchers we rarely consider rostering in DFS, even in the best of matchups. His 2.0% walk rate is as low as ever, and the Royals have become one of the best teams in baseball to attack with pitchers. And yet, there’s little appeal here. Tomlin’s 90.6% zone contact rating is in the top 10 highest of all qualified starters, and his swinging strike rate is in the top 10 lowest. The ball will be put into play a lot, which means that Tomlin can be safely avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Even against the Royals, even as a decent home favorite, I can’t get behind using Tomlin.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.265 0.251 0.079 21.4% 3.5% 15.9% 46.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.341 0.356 0.250 35.5% 6.8% 14.5% 36.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.308 0.295 0.090 27.8% 7.4% 21.0% 49.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.348 0.358 0.162 35.3% 10.0% 18.2% 57.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.328 0.313 0.206 37.5% 3.6% 20.9% 34.0% C $3,200 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.376 0.374 0.271 33.3% 7.7% 23.1% 35.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.323 0.340 0.280 39.7% 9.6% 31.3% 26.9% 1B $2,800 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.283 0.286 0.122 31.6% 4.5% 20.2% 44.0% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.293 0.320 0.139 35.8% 10.3% 27.4% 39.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 LF $6,000

Josh Tomlin is a reverse splits, fly ball pitcher, which lines up perfectly for Salvador Perez. There is a surprising number of solid catchers in good to great spots today (Gattis, Avila, Lucroy, Bandy, to name a few others), but Perez may be in the best spot of all, as he’s dominated right-handed pitching this year (.401 wOBA, .296 ISO). Plus, he’s got the BvP angle, as he is a career 17-for-32 with nine extra-base hits including a home run against Tomlin. Mike Moustakas has been red hot with homers in three of his last four. He’s got elite numbers against righties and could easily send another one to the seats.

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.322 0.312 0.181 28.6% 5.5% 24.6% 42.1% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.335 0.334 0.147 31.7% 7.2% 14.3% 46.7% SS $3,500 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.285 0.294 0.111 31.8% 8.3% 18.3% 47.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.372 0.384 0.232 40.5% 19.2% 22.1% 40.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.313 0.327 0.128 29.4% 11.5% 8.6% 54.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.342 0.347 0.150 32.6% 7.3% 14.1% 42.7% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.356 0.320 0.224 31.2% 7.3% 20.9% 40.8% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.265 0.310 0.119 43.1% 10.5% 22.4% 42.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.390 0.281 0.176 31.3% 5.6% 5.6% 43.8% OF $2,200 2B/3B $2,600 LF $4,800

Danny Duffy isn’t a pitcher I’m super interested in picking on today. Continuing with the “Duffy is better at limiting hard hits this year than last year” consider this: he’s only allowed three home runs to the 219 righties he’s faced this year. Compare that to last year, when he allowed 26 home runs to 616 righties faced. We can always target Edwin Encarnacion against fly ball lefties, and Francisco Lindor has shown pop when hitting from the right side of the plate this year. Those two are tournament one-offs, though, and not ones I’ll likely be targeting myself.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – ORANGE


LA Angels at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels Miami
Article Image Matt Shoemaker Article Image Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.326 34.0% 4.4% 20.0% 35.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.331 31.8% 6.7% 10.7% 40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.306 29.8% 7.4% 23.9% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.332 32.5% 8.4% 18.6% 49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Shoemaker
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 3.87 3.88 21.4% 4.5% 39.8% 30.1% 17.4%
2017 10 4.26 3.97 23.3% 9.8% 39.2% 38.3% 13.6%

Matt Shoemaker has been on a nice little roll lately, posting quality starts in each of his last three outings. While there was a period last year where it looked like Shoemaker was knocking on the door of elite pitcher territory, he’s cooled off since then, and now he’s simply an above average starter. On a slate with only a few viable pitching options, Shoemaker deserves a closer look. The matchup is a positive one. The Marlins don’t strike out much, but they rank in the bottom six of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. His 23.3% K rate is above average, which means he could do just enough in the strikeout department. Shoemaker’s massive fly ball rate and hard contact allowed probably keep him from being a cash game play (especially at FanDuel, where it’s impossible to justify playing him over McCullers or Pineda), but he’s shown the upside to be useful in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: It’s crazy that he’s priced higher than Lance McCullers and Michael Pineda at FanDuel. Avoid him there, except in tournaments. His price tags at DraftKings and FantasyDraft are more palatable, but he still makes more sense as a tournament play than as an SP2.

Jose Urena
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 4 5.16 3.08 12.5% 6.9% 37.7% 31.2% 19.2%

Don’t be fooled by Jose Urena’s 3.08 ERA. It’s been buoyed by an unsustainably low .250 BABIP, and his 5.16 SIERA says regression is imminent. Outside of Mike Trout, the Angels are not an imposing offense, but Urena is a low-strikeout pitcher (he hasn’t fanned more than four in any game this year). Even at home in his pitcher-friendly environs, Urena holds little appeal for DFS.

Quick Breakdown: It’s a bit surprising that Urena is favored over Matt Shoemaker, even though he’s at home. That said, Urena doesn’t have the strikeout upside to be worth our time.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.341 0.301 0.110 23.4% 11.3% 17.4% 62.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.326 0.339 0.155 34.4% 9.8% 18.7% 38.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
3 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.436 0.434 0.284 41.2% 17.0% 21.1% 39.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.317 0.361 0.163 35.5% 7.9% 13.3% 44.7% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.334 0.331 0.194 37.7% 13.8% 24.9% 37.4% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.308 0.308 0.092 27.6% 6.1% 8.9% 54.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.271 0.289 0.126 27.9% 10.3% 21.7% 46.9% C $2,500 C $2,100 C $4,000
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.279 0.285 0.139 31.3% 9.9% 30.1% 39.0% 2B $2,100 2B $2,900 2B $5,700
9 Matt Shoemaker RIGHT 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $9,500 P $9,400 P $18,300

I’ve been doing the Grind Down on Sundays for about a month now, and every time it comes time to write up the Angels offense, I write basically the same thing: “It’s never a bad idea to play Mike Trout, but just ignore everyone else” (in some variation). That’s still true, and I don’t love this game for offense. However, Kole Calhoun batted leadoff against a righty on Friday, and if that continues, he becomes an elite play given his cheap price tag and Urena’s career 10.7% K rate against lefties. Martin Maldonado has also seen a bump in his lineup spot recently; if he’s hitting sixth again, he’s a decent punt at DraftKings.

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Martin Maldonado (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.294 0.243 0.075 19.3% 5.3% 16.0% 56.7% 2B $3,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.371 0.386 0.196 40.5% 11.9% 19.9% 54.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
3 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.332 0.334 0.181 36.8% 7.7% 20.0% 46.7% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.326 0.329 0.219 37.9% 9.5% 29.2% 39.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.360 0.395 0.237 39.6% 12.1% 16.8% 45.4% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.342 0.344 0.144 29.0% 8.2% 20.3% 37.6% 3B $2,700 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.337 0.309 0.110 30.5% 5.1% 16.8% 50.5% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,500
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.285 0.345 0.222 47.1% 4.8% 14.3% 34.4% SS $2,500 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.122 0.127 0.000 6.7% 4.2% 33.3% 66.7% P $6,500 P $5,800 P $11,600

Much like the Indians bats against Danny Duffy, I have enough respect for Shoemaker that I’m not going out of my way to target Marlins bats on Sunday. However, Justin Bour has turned himself into an elite hitter (at least for the time being). His .285 ISO and 47.5% hard hit rate are matched by only Michael Conforto and Miguel Sano, so clearly, this is a hitter with massive power. Shoemaker is a fly ball pitcher who will give up the occasional long ball, so Bour is a very interesting one-off for GPPs. Apart from Bour, stacking up a few other Marlins (Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich would be my preference) makes sense given the fact that Shoemaker has doubled his walk rate since last year (9.8% this year, 4.5% last year) and, as a fly ball pitcher, he has a history of being susceptible to home runs.

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE


Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Cincinnati Philadelphia
Article Image Scott Feldman Article Image Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-112 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.327 24.2% 9.4% 16.3% 49.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.380 0.373 37.5% 6.0% 10.3% 41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.281 29.3% 5.6% 19.4% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.313 30.3% 5.0% 13.1% 39.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Feldman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.07 3.97 16.6% 5.6% 49.8% 24.6% 21.2%
2017 10 4.45 3.99 20.3% 9.5% 42.8% 31.1% 21.7%

In his last start, Scott Feldman came out of nowhere to throw a six-inning, nine-strikeout gem in which the only earned run he allowed came off a solo home run. But let’s not get carried away. The phrase “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks” seems fitting here, and I’m more than willing to chalk that start up to variance, as Feldman has been an average (at best) pitcher for years. He’s carrying a passable 4.23 SIERA into this game, and his 27.1% hard contact rate has allowed him to limit the damage. However, his below average strikeouts take him out of play except on the smallest of slates.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Feldman in all formats.

Zach Eflin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 5.41 5.54 11.4% 6.3% 36.2% 33.2% 17.5%
2017 7 4.81 5.36 12.1% 4.4% 47.5% 35.4% 15.7%

Zach Eflin has the highest SIERA of the entire day (5.18) and the lowest strikeout rate (11.7%). That is not a winning combination. He’s allowed 15 earned runs in his last two starts while managing to strike out just five batters during that stretch. There’s a high likelihood Eflin gives up runs in bunches again on Sunday. He’s an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eflin in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.310 0.261 0.085 19.8% 9.1% 19.4% 45.8% OF $3,600 OF $5,000 CF $9,600
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.336 0.303 0.171 30.2% 9.2% 16.6% 38.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.426 0.442 0.258 40.7% 17.7% 14.6% 37.0% 1B $4,500 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.325 0.324 0.249 36.5% 5.7% 26.4% 32.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.319 0.320 0.163 34.3% 8.0% 23.6% 39.9% 3B $3,000 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.330 0.201 35.0% 7.8% 21.7% 50.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.312 0.300 0.079 19.0% 2.1% 13.5% 44.2% 2B $2,700 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.258 0.309 0.103 20.8% 6.8% 20.3% 39.6% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Scott Feldman RIGHT 0.000 0.068 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 43.8% 40.0% P $7,200 P $7,500 P $15,000

With a 4.57 implied run total, the Reds are one of my favorite sneaky stacks of the day. Zach Eflin simply can’t strike anybody out, which increases the chances Billy Hamilton will be on the base paths. If Cameron Rupp (who ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB at throwing out base runners, according to FanGraphs) is behind the plate – or really, even if he isn’t – Hamilton should have no trouble swiping a bag or two here. Where Eflin really struggles, though, is against lefties. Joey Votto and Scott Schebler are fine plays in all formats.

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.335 0.307 0.108 24.9% 11.1% 18.4% 53.2% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.332 0.305 0.147 29.1% 8.7% 20.7% 43.9% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.313 0.298 0.149 32.9% 10.1% 31.0% 51.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.326 0.325 0.203 37.5% 5.3% 22.5% 40.6% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.322 0.192 37.6% 10.2% 26.7% 38.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.293 0.322 0.152 29.1% 6.6% 16.4% 44.7% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.300 0.316 0.168 32.6% 6.5% 28.3% 47.3% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.304 0.278 0.175 28.1% 5.3% 21.1% 39.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.144 0.144 0.037 42.9% 0.0% 50.0% 69.2% P $6,300 P $4,500 P $9,000

It’s always a bit tough to figure out how to attack Feldman. He’s been much worse against lefties, but he also has an absolutely elite 24.6% hard hit rate against them. Ultimately, this is not close to one of the top spots of the day, but Odubel Herrera is underpriced across the industry, especially if he’s batting out of the one- or two-hole.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE


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About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.