Sign In Get the App $ $

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 30th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-09-30 15:09:39

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
Article Image Kevin Gausman Article Image Ranger Suarez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-122 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.338 32.4% 1.16 18.4% 45.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.224 33.3% 0.00 23.5% 58.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.359 37.3% 1.35 19.2% 48.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.507 0.435 48.6% 3.12 5.0% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2% 95.0 10.9%
2018 30 4.25 3.93 18.9% 6.2% 46.8% 35.0% 17.6% 93.7 11.3%
L14 2 5.03 4.50 16.0% 8.0% 36.8% 44.7% 13.2% 93.6 12.0%

Kevin Gausman has a fairly unimpressive 18.9% strikeout rate this season, but it’s worth noting he has spent most of the year pitching in the tough AL East. His strikeout numbers haven’t been much better since coming to the NL, but he has pitched better since joining the Braves. He has kept the ball on the ground at a decent rate, and he gets a favorable matchup against a high-strikeout Phillies offense. Gausman is a guy that has shown better strikeout stuff in previous seasons, so that’s still in there, somewhere. The Braves are still playing for potential home field advantage in the NLDS, so I don’t expect any limits here. Gausman is one of the better plays on the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is a solid option today.

Ranger Suarez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 2 5.15 6.00 10.5% 7.0% 50.0% 44.7% 10.6% 91.5 5.6%
L14 0 3.72 0.00 8.3% 8.3% 80.0% 40.0% 20.0% 92.0 5.9%

Ranger Suarez is a rookie that has shown zero strikeout upside (10.5% this season). He’s pretty cheap, but he’s a guy that will likely pitch 5 innings max here, and his matchup against the Braves isn’t a great one for fantasy purposes. He’s not a guy worth considering.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ranger in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Ranger Suarez is a middling lefty taking on the Braves in a homer-friendly park. Atlanta still has something to play for, so I would imagine we see a standard Atlanta lineup today. The righties look like the more appealing options here, which puts Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall and either Tyler Flowers or Kurt Suzuki on my radar. I also think you can still play Freddie Freeman in a lefty-lefty matchup. The Braves aren’t my favorite stack on the slate, but they do have quite a bit of upside here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.394 0.292 42.4% 12.8% 21.8% 43.5% OF $4,100 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.357 0.215 37.7% 3.6% 14.4% 43.9% 2B $3,600 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.395 0.222 37.3% 10.0% 19.9% 40.5% 1B $4,400 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.328 0.140 39.9% 8.2% 14.3% 45.2% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.348 0.219 37.4% 8.0% 20.0% 43.9% 3B $3,200 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.463 0.258 51.2% 23.8% 22.6% 44.2% C $2,000 C $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.330 0.162 40.7% 11.9% 23.8% 25.9% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.281 0.179 30.9% 5.3% 23.0% 56.4% SS $2,900 3B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
9 Kevin Gausman RIGHT 0.021 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% P $7,800 P $8,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.324 0.187 35.3% 9.3% 25.2% 49.3%

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Tyler Flowers / Kurt Suzuki, Charlie Culberson

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

I’d rather play Gausman than stack the Phillies on this slate, but the fact that some of the Philly bats come with discounted price tags makes them somewhat appealing. Gausman has reverse splits, which means Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco and Wilson Ramos stand out a bit. I don’t think the lefties are unplayable, though, so Justin Bour and Asdrubal Cabrera look like solid values. This isn’t a team I’d bother stacking. Instead, pick your favorite value bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.309 0.123 22.1% 13.2% 23.1% 41.6% 2B $2,800 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Justin Bour LEFT 0.374 0.224 40.4% 15.1% 23.9% 40.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.300 0.178 25.7% 7.3% 20.0% 40.8% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.370 0.282 36.1% 11.3% 24.4% 29.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.367 0.180 34.0% 17.4% 15.2% 38.4% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.341 0.159 38.2% 8.3% 18.9% 57.7% C $3,100 C $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.295 0.115 27.1% 4.9% 22.6% 36.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Ranger Suarez LEFT 0.052 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% P $5,700 P $5,300 N/A N/A
9 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.266 0.099 26.2% 9.9% 22.0% 54.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.297 0.151 27.8% 9.7% 23.3% 45.1%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Houston Baltimore
Article Image Charlie Morton Article Image Jimmy Yacabonis
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-210 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.313 39.5% 1.10 36.3% 38.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.419 0.350 31.3% 1.26 16.7% 42.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.275 23.5% 0.90 22.2% 52.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.348 30.2% 2.49 22.0% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $9,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 3.70 3.62 26.4% 8.1% 51.8% 26.9% 22.1% 95.0 10.9%
2018 29 3.53 3.18 28.8% 9.2% 47.4% 29.7% 20.8% 95.7 11.9%
L14 2 2.27 3.86 33.3% 0.0% 37.5% 25.0% 12.5% 93.5 11.7%

Charlie Morton was taken out of his last start after just one inning thanks to soreness in his pitching shoulder. That reportedly won’t be an issue for him moving forward, but don’t be surprised if the Astros take a conservative approach with him today with the postseason looming. Morton has a stellar K-rate nearing 29% on the season, and he’s a ground ball pitcher that has yielded a ground ball rate under 30%. The Orioles are a great matchup for any starter at this point, but my concerns over Morton’s workload today will have me looking elsewhere. I’m fine with taking a shot on his potential low ownership in tournaments, however.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t expect Morton to pitch all that deep today, which makes him a long shot GPP flier at best in my eyes.

Jimmy Yacabonis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 6.67 4.35 8.9% 15.6% 48.5% 32.4% 27.9% 95.4 5.3%
2018 5 4.30 6.34 20.8% 8.3% 39.6% 31.6% 19.4% 93.5 10.9%
L14 2 4.98 4.35 18.8% 12.5% 50.0% 19.4% 19.4% 93.5 13.3%

Jimmy Yacabonis has pitched in 11 games for the O’s this season, 6 of which have been starts. He lasted just 3.2 innings in his most recent outing, throwing 82 pitches in the process. Yacabonis has never shown much strikeout upside at any level, he’s facing the Astros today and he doesn’t pitch deep into games. Talking yourself out of playing this dude should be pretty easy.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Yacabonis in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Yacabonis has allowed a career wOBA of .377 to lefties compared to a .333 mark against righties. The Astros’ offense may well go overlooked on a hefty 15-gamer, but they’re easily one of the best teams to target today. The lefties like Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez stand out here, but you can certainly play their big right-handed bats, too. That means George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Tyler White. You can stack the Astros or pick your spots with one or two of them here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.341 0.155 31.5% 10.2% 18.2% 50.3% OF $4,000 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.351 0.144 31.6% 9.1% 14.0% 48.8% 2B $4,200 2B $4,900 N/A N/A
3 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.399 0.247 36.4% 13.8% 12.3% 35.1% 3B $4,500 3B/SS $5,400 N/A N/A
4 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.337 0.165 36.6% 11.4% 23.7% 43.0% OF $3,300 OF/SS $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.286 0.119 29.3% 3.3% 10.6% 48.4% 1B $3,700 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.309 0.175 28.1% 9.9% 24.0% 45.5% SS $3,700 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Tyler White RIGHT 0.339 0.264 33.9% 9.1% 16.2% 42.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
8 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.305 0.113 31.4% 11.3% 16.1% 35.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.262 0.132 28.0% 3.7% 24.3% 40.1% C $2,200 C $3,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.325 0.168 31.9% 9.1% 17.7% 43.3%

Elite Plays – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Tyler White, Tony Kemp, Kyle Tucker

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

I don’t know how much Charlie Morton the O’s will see, but they’ll have to deal with a stellar Houston bullpen behind him today. The Orioles are just playing out the string and they don’t have much by way of offense to begin with. As a result, a full Baltimore fade looks like the play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.299 0.188 27.1% 7.3% 13.8% 51.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.289 0.115 29.2% 8.7% 26.2% 58.5% 2B $2,700 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.372 0.194 38.2% 7.1% 24.1% 49.0% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.149 31.3% 4.4% 17.1% 43.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
5 DJ Stewart LEFT 0.300 0.333 33.3% 9.4% 21.9% 33.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Corban Joseph LEFT 0.177 0.000 9.1% 6.3% 25.0% 63.6% 2B $2,000 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Steve Wilkerson SWITCH 0.231 0.120 19.1% 10.7% 14.3% 52.4% 2B $2,000 2B/3B $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.303 0.139 30.4% 11.9% 24.8% 45.1% OF $2,000 3B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Austin Wynns RIGHT 0.347 0.230 30.2% 4.5% 16.4% 48.0% C $2,000 C $2,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.294 0.163 27.5% 7.8% 20.4% 49.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 3:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers San Francisco
Article Image Rich Hill Article Image Andrew Suarez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-215 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.346 34.4% 1.74 21.2% 36.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.224 0.259 30.2% 0.20 19.5% 64.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.312 46.3% 1.33 29.5% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.356 0.368 43.1% 1.74 20.1% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 3.61 3.32 30.1% 8.9% 36.9% 30.2% 20.7% 89.0 11.5%
2018 23 3.61 3.87 27.3% 7.8% 39.3% 43.1% 19.3% 89.3 10.3%
L14 2 3.13 3.75 32.6% 8.7% 48.0% 37.0% 25.9% 89.1 11.3%

Rich Hill will get the call for the Dodgers today. L.A. is one of the few teams playing for something today, so who knows how Dave Roberts will approach this? We’ve seen Roberts use a quick hook with Hill in the past, but the matchup today is a great one. The veteran has a stellar 27.3% strikeout rate this season along with a 3.61 SIERA. The Giants have one of the worst lineups in baseball at this point, and we know AT&T Park is a great place to pitch. Hill is also affordably priced, which makes him one of the best pitching options on the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Hill is an elite play in all formats.

Andrew Suarez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 28 4.00 4.22 20.0% 6.6% 51.7% 39.7% 17.7% 92.2 7.4%
L14 2 4.58 2.84 18.0% 8.0% 43.2% 43.2% 21.6% 91.8 10.4%

Andrew Suarez has put together a decent rookie campaign, as evidenced by his 20% strikeout rate and 4.00 SIERA. However, he’s a lefty with a wide split taking on a stacked Dodgers offense today. There is way more downside than upside here, so I don’t see the merit in playing him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid all pitchers named Suarez today.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Suarez has kept lefties in check, but right-handed hitters have a .356 wOBA against him this season. RHBs have also accounted for 22 of the 23 homers he’s served up. So, play some L.A. righties here. Justin Turner and Manny Machado stand out, but Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez, Brian Dozier, Yasiel Puig, David Freese and Chris Taylor look like solid plays. Keep in mind there’s a real chance Kemp gets lifted for defensive purposes late in the game, which could obviously limit his number of plate appearances. The park stinks, but I still think the Dodgers are a viable stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.332 0.188 35.9% 10.2% 16.2% 39.9% OF $2,500 2B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
2 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.427 0.221 51.1% 16.1% 14.6% 22.3% 3B $3,900 3B $4,300 N/A N/A
3 David Freese RIGHT 0.387 0.167 40.0% 9.4% 22.8% 53.0% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.417 0.247 38.9% 12.6% 8.7% 39.5% SS $4,400 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.417 0.242 47.0% 6.8% 23.4% 26.9% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.366 0.202 39.6% 11.7% 22.3% 31.6% OF $2,900 OF/SS $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.295 0.106 33.6% 14.3% 20.6% 43.4% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Austin Barnes RIGHT 0.285 0.097 38.8% 12.8% 25.6% 51.3% C $2,100 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.083 0.000 22.2% 0.0% 43.8% 100.0% P $9,200 P $9,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.334 0.163 38.6% 10.4% 22.0% 45.3%

Elite Plays – Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Brian Dozier, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco

Rich Hill is a good pitcher and the Giants are a bad offense. You can take a shot with one of the mega-cheap guys like Gregor Blanco or Kelby Tomlinson if you’re really strained for savings, but otherwise this looks like a team to be avoiding.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.245 0.140 29.7% 5.1% 19.4% 56.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.287 0.060 29.2% 7.3% 4.6% 53.7% 2B $2,300 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.378 0.219 44.3% 5.5% 14.5% 43.5% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 N/A N/A
4 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.362 0.220 48.8% 6.0% 25.0% 30.0% C $2,500 C $3,000 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.336 0.162 34.7% 5.4% 19.8% 40.1% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Aramis Garcia RIGHT 0.207 0.188 28.6% 0.0% 56.3% 14.3% C $2,600 1B/C $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.275 0.039 38.9% 5.8% 26.7% 63.0% OF $2,400 1B/OF $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.308 0.181 37.4% 6.4% 25.0% 41.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Andrew Suarez LEFT 0.095 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 60.0% 83.3% P $7,300 P $7,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.277 0.134 33.8% 4.6% 27.9% 47.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Kelby Tomlinson, Gregor Blanco

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Boston – 3:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Boston
Article Image Jonathan Holder Article Image Rick Porcello
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.226 0.286 28.4% 0.29 23.4% 36.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.352 40.6% 1.51 25.1% 33.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.258 0.307 32.7% 0.52 20.8% 23.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.297 27.6% 1.08 22.0% 53.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jonathan Holder
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.47 3.89 23.4% 4.7% 42.0% 30.8% 20.0% 92.7 12.9%
2018 1 3.92 2.92 22.4% 6.8% 29.7% 30.7% 19.9% 92.7 10.8%
L14 1 7.42 0.00 11.5% 19.2% 22.2% 27.8% 16.7% 92.2 4.1%

It looks like the Yankees are rolling with a bullpen game today. Jonathan Holder will be the starter in name, but he’s not going to pitch deep enough to be worth considering. Just fade the Yankee staff here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Holder and the Yankee pitchers in a bullpen game.

Rick Porcello
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.28 4.65 20.5% 5.4% 39.2% 38.3% 17.1% 91.1 9.4%
2018 32 3.76 4.33 23.5% 5.9% 43.9% 33.6% 18.7% 90.4 8.6%
L14 2 4.99 5.40 14.3% 7.1% 37.5% 43.8% 9.4% 90.1 6.4%

Rick Porcello has been in shaky form over the last couple of months, and he hasn’t pitched beyond the sixth inning in any start since August 20. Porcello has a respectable 23.5% K-rate on the season, and his 3.77 SIERA is quite a bit more impressive than his 4.33 ERA. He could be somewhat viable if the Yankees decide to rest a bunch of their regulars, but it’s tough to love a guy like Porcello in this matchup and in this ballpark on a full slate. He’s one of the better options on the day, but far from a core play.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is fine for tournaments, but there are better options if you’re playing cash games.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are always a team worth stacking in GPPs. They have power 1-through-9 in the lineup, and they’re taking their hacks at hitter-friendly Fenway Park today. I don’t really think any of their bats are must-plays in cash games with so many weak pitchers taking the mound today, but I will almost always tell you this is a team you can target in tournaments. Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Hicks are the guys I’d prioritize.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.366 0.159 43.6% 14.8% 21.1% 41.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.395 0.241 48.2% 12.8% 31.0% 44.1% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.387 0.199 37.0% 16.8% 18.8% 41.4% OF $3,400 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.326 0.208 37.5% 9.5% 31.3% 46.4% OF $4,500 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.347 0.258 37.6% 9.1% 12.1% 36.4% SS $4,000 SS $5,100 N/A N/A
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.348 0.221 37.2% 3.3% 16.0% 45.7% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.331 0.197 34.7% 10.7% 25.8% 45.3% C $3,300 C $4,200 N/A N/A
8 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.468 0.315 47.5% 12.7% 28.4% 35.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.352 0.166 35.6% 8.1% 23.0% 34.9% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.369 0.218 39.9% 10.9% 23.1% 41.1%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Boston

The Yankees have one of the better bullpens in baseball, so assuming New York takes the bullpen game route the Red Sox don’t stand out all that much. You can still always play guys like J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts, but I wouldn’t necessarily say they’re building blocks today. Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are potential low-owned value options worth considering. As is the case with the Yankees, this offense is good enough to where you can always stack them in GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.447 0.272 44.3% 11.6% 15.4% 33.2% OF $4,900 OF $6,100 N/A N/A
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.392 0.185 29.1% 12.1% 13.2% 39.8% OF $4,000 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.450 0.319 44.8% 11.4% 22.0% 43.9% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 N/A N/A
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.374 0.254 36.9% 7.0% 16.9% 46.4% SS $4,100 SS $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.403 0.204 36.3% 11.5% 21.3% 39.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.324 0.171 29.6% 7.9% 12.3% 36.9% 2B $2,800 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.334 0.223 36.2% 8.3% 24.2% 44.0% 3B $3,500 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.251 0.116 26.3% 3.0% 27.1% 40.9% C $2,200 C $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.378 0.183 42.6% 9.8% 22.6% 38.9% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.373 0.214 36.2% 9.2% 19.4% 40.4%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Oakland at LA Angels – 3:07 PM ET

Oakland LA Angels
Article Image Brett Anderson Article Image Matt Shoemaker
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.351 32.8% 0.53 11.0% 65.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.344 45.2% 0.66 32.7% 35.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.335 35.6% 1.19 13.8% 54.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.392 51.1% 0.63 19.4% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.84 6.34 15.1% 8.4% 49.2% 36.5% 21.9% 90.5 8.8%
2018 16 4.20 4.42 13.1% 4.1% 57.0% 35.0% 17.5% 90.3 7.2%
L14 2 2.75 5.00 16.2% 0.0% 67.7% 38.7% 19.4% 90.2 7.6%

Brett Anderson is yet another A’s starter that has been in wobbly form lately. The veteran lefty has a low strikeout rate just over 13% and he’ll be facing an Angels lineup with some decent right-handed hitters today. There’s no upside here.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is one of the easiest fades on the slate.

Matt Shoemaker
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 14 4.60 4.52 21.2% 8.6% 38.5% 36.2% 14.7% 91.5 11.6%
2018 6 3.59 4.82 25.6% 6.8% 44.2% 48.7% 9.0% 91.4 13.4%
L14 3 2.14 6.57 34.6% 3.6% 53.1% 51.5% 9.1% 91.7 16.0%

Matt Shoemaker has been limited to just 6 starts this season due to injury. He hasn’t thrown more than 77 pitches since coming off the DL earlier this month, so the Angels are obviously taking it slow with him. The right-hander has a decent career strikeout rate of nearly 22%, Shoemaker is a tad priced up considering he’s not pitching deep into games, and the matchup against the A’s isn’t necessarily one I’d want to target. I’d pass on the maker of shoes.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Shoemaker given his lack of upside.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Angel Stadium isn’t a great park for offense, but Shoemaker probably won’t pitch all that deep and the Angels have a mediocre bullpen backing him up. Khris Davis hits a home run every day, so you can obviously give him a whirl if you have the funds. Matt Chapman is really the only other A that stands out to me here. You can always punt catcher with Jonathan Lucroy, but there are better options at that position on this slate. The rest of the Oakland hitters are fringe options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Nick Martini LEFT 0.338 0.129 37.4% 11.1% 21.0% 45.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.377 0.263 43.3% 9.7% 22.7% 38.2% 3B $4,000 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.350 0.202 37.2% 12.6% 19.0% 33.4% 2B $3,600 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.410 0.320 44.6% 7.2% 25.6% 35.1% OF $4,200 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.391 0.254 49.5% 11.1% 25.5% 35.0% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.373 0.226 45.3% 5.6% 18.2% 44.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Ramon Laureano RIGHT 0.370 0.223 45.3% 5.3% 26.5% 45.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
8 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.311 0.110 30.3% 7.8% 18.0% 40.2% SS $3,000 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.310 0.066 35.1% 5.5% 12.9% 42.8% C $2,500 C $2,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.359 0.199 40.9% 8.4% 21.0% 40.0%

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Secondary Plays – Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Ramon Laureano, Jed Lowrie, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

LA Angels

The Angels will take on a weak lefty in Brett Anderson today. Mike Trout remains one of the best overall plays on the board, while the other righties (Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons) are solid tries. Shohei Ohtani figures to be low-owned if he cracks the lineup, so you can always take a shot there, especially considering Anderson has shown some reverse split tendencies. Kole Calhoun and Jose Miguel Fernandez are cheapies to consider.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.367 0.084 44.1% 12.7% 19.9% 43.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.399 0.250 37.7% 20.8% 24.3% 33.8% OF $5,000 OF $5,800 N/A N/A
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.315 0.125 38.6% 8.4% 28.7% 48.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Shohei Ohtani LEFT 0.270 0.137 32.8% 9.4% 32.1% 60.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.324 0.139 36.3% 7.7% 5.5% 53.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.273 0.145 29.6% 5.6% 23.4% 50.0% 1B $2,400 1B/3B $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Jose Briceno RIGHT 0.370 0.288 42.1% 8.8% 24.6% 47.4% C $2,400 C $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Taylor Ward RIGHT 0.378 0.233 37.1% 6.5% 17.4% 22.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.243 0.120 25.0% 7.1% 32.1% 43.8% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $3,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.327 0.169 35.9% 9.7% 23.1% 44.9%

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Miguel Fernandez, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles