MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-19 19:43:12

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Detroit
			Alex Cobb							Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-107							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.331	36.9%	8.8%	18.8%	42.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.378	0.362	41.6%	6.0%	16.1%	29.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.339	37.1%	3.7%	15.2%	50.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.365	0.366	37.2%	6.1%	13.8%	35.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 17	Salary Rank:		9 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%
	2018	1	6.65	17.18	0.0%	4.8%	25.0%	40.0%	20.0%

There are three early games on the schedule today, two are included in the early-only slate on FanDuel and three are included in the slate on DraftKings. Cobb used to be an excellent pitcher, but has never quite recovered from Tommy John surgery. He made steps in the right direction last season, but it doesn’t look like he is ever going to be a high strikeout pitcher again. He struggled in his first start of the season, giving up ten hits and two home runs in less than four innings of work. He’s an easy fade against the Tigers in a pick ‘em game that has a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 17	Salary Rank:		11 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%
	2018	3	3.70	8.18	22.9%	4.2%	25.7%	37.1%	28.6%

There are few pitchers that could have less fantasy appeal than Alex Cobb, but Zimmermann is one of them. Even though his advanced statistics look better this season, I’m not buying into him with this small of a sample size. While he is throwing more sinkers and sliders, his velocity is actually lower than it was a year ago. Speaking of 2017, Zimmermann finished that season with a 5.22 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 14.5%. He should be avoided today against the Orioles, who have five batters in their projected lineup with a .340+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a decent ballpark and draw an exploitable matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Since the beginning of last season, Zimmermann has allowed a .362 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .366 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. An Orioles’ stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments, especially since there are only a handful of teams playing in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.360	0.361	0.211	34.0%	7.0%	22.4%	50.2%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.380	0.376	0.167	31.6%	14.3%	25.4%	36.8%	OF	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.324	0.360	0.191	36.2%	8.1%	17.3%	42.0%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.329	0.321	0.188	30.8%	3.2%	19.1%	44.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.313	0.341	0.223	42.1%	12.5%	34.5%	39.4%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.130	0.175	0.000	9.5%	6.5%	25.8%	66.7%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.315	0.310	0.162	38.6%	5.3%	29.9%	50.0%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Anthony Santander	SWITCH	0.283	0.263	0.154	34.9%	1.9%	18.5%	30.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.430	0.349	0.262	33.3%	10.4%	31.3%	57.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Luis Sardinas, Tim Beckham

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are another viable stack here in the early slate. They are playing at home and have one of the best matchups on the board. Since the start of last season, Alex Cobb has allowed a .331 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .339 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. It’s a good sign that Cobb struggles against righties, as the Tigers have six of them in their lineup. I don’t have much interest in the bottom of the order, but Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez are all solid options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.259	0.286	0.093	24.1%	7.4%	23.3%	35.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.335	0.319	0.166	26.5%	10.0%	20.0%	44.4%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.292	0.375	0.143	42.2%	9.3%	20.0%	42.8%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.329	0.375	0.185	43.9%	6.7%	22.6%	36.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.320	0.378	0.138	43.7%	8.8%	14.1%	37.8%	C	$2,600	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.269	0.304	0.106	35.7%	5.7%	25.1%	39.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.215	0.245	0.060	31.3%	7.0%	38.3%	53.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.274	0.258	0.115	27.0%	4.2%	15.1%	52.5%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.294	0.291	0.098	35.1%	4.6%	19.1%	53.8%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Chicago Cubs
			Luke Weaver							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-108							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.249	0.272	25.0%	7.1%	26.4%	46.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.248	26.1%	3.8%	32.8%	56.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.296	28.7%	6.7%	29.1%	50.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.330	28.2%	9.3%	20.3%	44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luke Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 17	Salary Rank:		6 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	10	3.29	3.88	28.6%	6.8%	49.4%	25.9%	19.1%
	2018	3	3.47	2.08	25.4%	7.5%	45.5%	31.1%	15.6%

Weaver might be the most talented pitcher to take the mound in the early slate. After an impressive 2017 campaign, he has backed it up here in 2018. In three starts, he has a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7.5%. He keeps the ball on the ground and limits hard contact. A matchup against the Cubs sounds scary, but we have double-digit winds blowing in from left field and it’s expected to be cold in Chicago once again. There is plenty of strikeout potential in this matchup, as the Cubs’ lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Weaver is the top pitching option of the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 17	Salary Rank:		5 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%
	2018	3	4.39	4.40	16.7%	10.6%	56.5%	23.4%	25.5%

Lester’s numbers have been trending in the wrong direction over the last couple of years. He hasn’t been sharp in his first three outings this season, posting a 4.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 11%. When you add in the fact that he doesn’t hold runners well, he’s not a pitcher that I feel confident playing in DFS. While he is playing at home in good pitching conditions, the Cardinals’ offense is loaded with right-handed power. Seven of their nine starters have an xwOBA of at least .340 against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll take Weaver over Lester here and it’s not particularly close.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are not playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, at least not today. Wrigley Field can be great for hitters when it is warm and when the wind is blowing out. We have the opposite today, as the wind is blowing in from left and we are expecting temperatures in the low 40s. With that said, this is a team that hits left-handed pitching well. Jon Lester has not been great so far this season and he has allowed a .330 xwOBA to right-handed hitters since the beginning of last season. The right-handed batters are viable here, especially ones with speed.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.307	0.345	0.149	38.1%	10.9%	17.5%	45.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.421	0.396	0.257	35.7%	17.6%	19.9%	53.0%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.303	0.364	0.107	34.5%	17.5%	24.0%	36.5%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.333	0.340	0.113	38.1%	10.7%	18.2%	53.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.519	0.524	0.415	36.5%	16.7%	16.7%	32.7%	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.346	0.448	0.286	48.6%	3.8%	10.0%	32.1%	C	$3,600	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.380	0.277	0.311	36.4%	10.0%	35.0%	38.2%	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.395	0.373	0.262	31.1%	8.7%	13.0%	38.9%	SS	$2,500	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Luke Weaver	RIGHT	0.110	0.086	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$8,800	P	$8,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Luke Weaver has an above-average strikeout rate, an above-average ground ball rate, and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Add in the bad weather and we have ourselves an easy fade. Given the fact that this game is basically set as a pick ‘em, it’s a little scary how much I dislike the Cubs in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.299	0.264	0.144	29.1%	3.3%	18.9%	51.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.328	0.297	0.220	30.8%	6.1%	28.6%	48.1%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.397	0.367	0.246	31.9%	13.2%	19.8%	38.1%	3B	$4,800	3B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.376	0.408	0.226	34.6%	13.8%	12.9%	39.6%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.348	0.324	0.203	34.8%	7.7%	24.8%	52.5%	C	$3,400	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.348	0.362	0.279	37.3%	11.6%	29.9%	41.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.284	0.294	0.160	33.6%	6.8%	22.8%	38.5%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.320	0.345	0.139	27.0%	10.6%	10.8%	46.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.179	0.235	0.075	32.1%	4.3%	36.2%	62.5%	P	$8,300	P	$9,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Seattle
			Charlie Morton							Marco Gonzales
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-165							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.250	0.274	27.3%	9.3%	33.4%	47.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.394	0.311	23.8%	5.3%	19.3%	54.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.308	26.6%	7.1%	21.7%	56.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.397	0.391	35.5%	5.4%	17.4%	43.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 17	Salary Rank:		1 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	3.70	3.62	26.4%	8.1%	51.8%	26.9%	22.1%
	2018	3	2.44	1.00	33.3%	8.0%	59.5%	26.2%	31.0%

Morton has been my go-to pitcher nearly every time he has taken the mound over the last two seasons. He has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. The best part is that he is usually underpriced across the industry. While that’s not the case today, he’s still one of the best pitching options available in the early slate. He comes into this game as a large favorite against the Mariners, who don’t draw many walks. They have some decent power in their lineup, but that might be negated by Morton’s ability to keep the ball on the ground.

Quick Breakdown: On single pitcher sites, Morton is my number one play. On multi-pitcher sites, I will be pairing Morton with Weaver.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 17	Salary Rank:		14 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	8	4.48	6.08	17.3%	6.0%	45.4%	29.1%	23.4%
	2018	3	3.38	8.25	19.6%	3.6%	47.6%	45.2%	9.5%

Gonzales has been a little better so far this season. In three starts, he has a 3.38 SIERA with a 20% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, those numbers haven’t translated into any type of success, as his ERA is well over 8.00. He’s an easy fade today against the Astros, who have power, draw walks, and put the ball into play. There are three offenses that I am looking to load up on and the Astros are near the top of that list.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have been a little disappointing over the last week or so, but they are still one of the best offensive teams in baseball. They draw a favorable matchup against Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a .391 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. This isn’t the best hitter’s park around, but all of the big righties in this lineup are in play — George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.425	0.449	0.290	38.2%	14.6%	14.1%	40.5%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.384	0.355	0.215	30.3%	10.3%	12.4%	31.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.394	0.329	0.191	26.7%	9.0%	13.0%	45.8%	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.442	0.441	0.214	42.1%	11.7%	14.1%	46.3%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.309	0.325	0.157	38.4%	6.4%	13.3%	47.8%	1B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.290	0.345	0.178	33.0%	6.0%	17.2%	43.2%	C	$2,600	C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.322	0.276	0.194	25.7%	8.4%	19.4%	44.0%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Max Stassi	RIGHT	0.337	0.434	0.227	38.9%	4.0%	16.0%	44.4%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.333	0.302	0.219	25.0%	8.7%	33.9%	29.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle

The Mariners are playing at home, but they have the worst matchup on the board. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, Charlie Morton has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate since the start of last season. Even though there are only six offenses to choose from in the early slate, I am going to cross off the Mariners and the Cubs and focus on the other four.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.324	0.268	0.079	17.0%	4.6%	14.3%	53.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.330	0.296	0.132	25.1%	4.6%	15.2%	56.0%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.372	0.398	0.201	39.6%	8.7%	12.6%	47.7%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.393	0.396	0.284	39.9%	7.2%	22.1%	40.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.332	0.369	0.211	37.7%	9.5%	16.1%	30.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.375	0.346	0.214	37.7%	9.1%	23.3%	41.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.321	0.307	0.141	28.7%	7.6%	19.9%	43.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Daniel Vogelbach	LEFT	0.333	0.365	0.170	51.7%	7.7%	34.6%	31.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Mike Marjama	RIGHT	0.161	0.212	0.103	22.7%	0.0%	24.1%	63.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								NY Yankees
			Aaron Sanchez							CC Sabathia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.370	31.3%	17.3%	21.2%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.287	15.4%	8.7%	20.0%	58.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	0.370	29.2%	9.0%	10.3%	49.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.328	30.3%	7.7%	19.0%	47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 17	Salary Rank:		of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	8	5.62	4.25	14.4%	12.0%	47.5%	29.5%	21.3%
	2018	3	5.18	3.66	15.9%	13.4%	54.5%	30.9%	29.1%

This game isn’t featured in the early or the main slates (so frustrating), but I’ve included it in the Grind Down for anyone playing in the all-day slate. Sanchez may own a 3.66 ERA, but the peripheral stats don’t support it. In three starts, he has a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 13%. Until he can fix his command issues, he will be an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments. It doesn’t help that he is facing the Yankees in New York.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 17	Salary Rank:		of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%
	2018	2	4.07	4.00	18.0%	5.1%	41.4%	37.9%	24.1%

Sabathia is no longer a high-strikeout pitcher, but he has transformed his game in order to prolong his career. He now relies on ground balls and an ability to induce soft and medium contact. We used to load up right-handed hitters against him, but that’s no longer the case. While I prefer Sabathia over Sanchez, I won’t be using either in the all-day slate. There are better pitching options in both the early and late games.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays teed off on Ian Kennedy and the Royals yesterday. They have a tougher matchup this time around, as they take on CC Sabathia, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 31% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. While I don’t love the spot as a whole, there are two batters with solid BvP against Sabathia — Justin Smoak (10-for-29 with two home runs) and Steve Pearce (8-for-30 with two home runs).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.341	0.348	0.259	35.4%	7.4%	22.1%	39.0%	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.288	0.348	0.250	38.9%	2.9%	44.1%	22.2%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.405	0.395	0.203	35.8%	12.3%	15.2%	39.0%	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.265	0.314	0.095	27.8%	9.0%	10.2%	46.6%	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.270	0.328	0.111	34.0%	14.6%	29.2%	37.0%	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.381	0.338	0.213	31.6%	5.8%	14.5%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.246	0.255	0.045	23.6%	9.3%	17.3%	38.9%	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.275	0.354	0.183	38.3%	7.2%	27.2%	29.6%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.392	0.440	0.270	26.7%	9.8%	17.1%	40.0%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak (GPP), Steve Pearce (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak (Cash), Steve Pearce (Cash), Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are an intriguing stack in the all-day slate, as all nine of their projected starters have an ISO of at least .175 against right-handed pitching. Aaron Sanchez has struggled with his command so far this season. Not only does that lead to a lot of walks, but he can miss his spots and leave pitches out over the heart of the plate as well. The usual suspects are all borderline elite plays here, but unfortunately we can’t play them in the main slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.357	0.333	0.184	31.5%	11.4%	18.9%	43.5%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.435	0.442	0.345	43.6%	16.4%	30.2%	35.4%	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.377	0.370	0.304	38.2%	10.6%	27.5%	45.1%	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.374	0.314	0.257	27.8%	6.5%	10.8%	35.6%	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.351	0.381	0.238	36.3%	6.1%	22.2%	43.0%	C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.360	0.345	0.230	31.0%	16.0%	20.0%	41.9%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.348	0.363	0.177	35.3%	12.4%	16.8%	39.3%	1B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.285	0.292	0.192	37.0%	7.0%	43.9%	29.6%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.391	0.376	0.333	44.4%	3.1%	12.5%	44.4%	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Philadelphia
			Jameson Taillon							Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-101							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.336	26.4%	9.4%	15.9%	49.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.334	31.7%	9.4%	23.5%	42.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.266	30.6%	6.2%	26.6%	48.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.282	26.6%	6.6%	21.6%	49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 17	Salary Rank:		2 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%
	2018	3	3.12	0.89	24.0%	6.7%	58.8%	19.6%	25.5%

We kick off the five-game main slate with the Pirates and Phillies. Taillon has pitched well so far this season, posting a 3.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has good command and he is great at inducing ground balls and limiting hard contact. He basically checks all of the boxes that we are looking for in a pitcher. The only issue tonight is his price tag. He is very expensive on DraftKings ($11,100) and he’s pitching on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark. The good news is that the Phillies have eight projected starters with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is right there with Greinke as the top pitcher of the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 17	Salary Rank:		7 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%
	2018	2	4.07	3.38	13.3%	8.9%	67.6%	20.6%	14.7%

Arrieta’s velocity is down a bit this season and while the sample size is small, he has a swinging strike rate of only 5.6%. That’s not going to get the job done, especially for a pitcher that has historically relied on strikeouts. The Pirates aren’t the most potent offense in baseball, but they draw walks and they put the ball in play. Only three of their projected starters have a strikeout rate over 20% against right-handed pitching. I know that Arrieta is cheap and that he’s a big name in baseball, but I have to see something more before targeting him in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are an intriguing offense to target tonight. Even though there are only five games on the schedule, I expect Pittsburgh’s ownership to be very low. If we throw out the name and look strictly at Jake Arrieta numbers, this should be a matchup that we want to exploit. He has struggled with left-handed hitters over the last two seasons, his velocity is down, and the Pirates are facing him in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The one through five batters are all viable as the last pieces into lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.322	0.332	0.139	29.2%	8.3%	12.0%	48.3%	OF	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.317	0.339	0.182	29.4%	8.3%	13.1%	39.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.365	0.338	0.150	26.9%	7.5%	17.2%	46.9%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.340	0.329	0.202	32.7%	10.8%	20.3%	52.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.339	0.334	0.219	34.9%	5.8%	22.2%	37.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.326	0.338	0.134	34.4%	10.5%	19.9%	47.4%	C	$2,900	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.342	0.394	0.140	40.9%	8.9%	12.5%	38.6%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.311	0.304	0.148	27.8%	9.4%	15.6%	47.1%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.107	0.132	0.000	8.7%	0.0%	37.8%	82.4%	P	$9,300	P	$11,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon. In addition to his high strikeout and ground ball rates, he has held both right-handed hitters to a .266 xwOBA. If you are targeting any Phillies’ hitters tonight, make sure they bat from the left side of the plate. This is likely a full fade for me, but I won’t talk anyone off of a Carlos Santana one-off. He’s been hitting the ball very hard this season, the extra-base hits are on their way.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.347	0.310	0.114	21.5%	11.3%	21.5%	49.5%	2B	$3,800	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.346	0.392	0.210	35.9%	13.6%	17.5%	33.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.337	0.313	0.169	28.4%	6.5%	21.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.427	0.411	0.312	42.4%	14.6%	22.9%	27.2%	OF	$4,700	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.349	0.346	0.198	37.1%	6.3%	27.6%	46.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.322	0.326	0.200	35.3%	8.0%	24.0%	38.2%	SS	$4,000	3B/SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.394	0.338	0.220	25.4%	1.9%	30.8%	53.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.137	0.153	0.102	26.9%	1.9%	48.1%	45.8%	P	$8,100	P	$7,600	N/A	N/A
9	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.328	0.305	0.155	20.3%	12.1%	22.2%	33.3%	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 19th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Luis Sardinas, Tim Beckham

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak (GPP), Steve Pearce (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak (Cash), Steve Pearce (Cash), Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

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