MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 25th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
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Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
Boston | Tampa Bay |
| | | |
LEFT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
BOS -130 | 7.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.239 | 4 | 26.8% | 24.5% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.264 | 14 | 28.7% | 25.8% |
SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.293 | 20 | 27.2% | 25.2% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.335 | 26 | 30.7% | 17.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Pomeranz |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $11,500 |
FPPG: | 35.5 | FPPG: | 19.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 80.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 5 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 6 | 88.5 | 4.26 | 3.31 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 50.0% | 37.2% | 27.8% |
2016 | 24 | 96.2 | 3.89 | 2.95 | 26.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 47.6% | 37.3% | 28.6% |
2015 | 9 | 160.2 | 3.73 | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 42.2% | 36.3% | 24.9% |
Pomeranz is having a career season and the Red Sox are going to need all they can get out of him as they make their push for the postseason. In 24 starts, Pomeranz has a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.3%. He induces a lot of ground balls and he doesn’t given up a lot of hard contact. He is an excellent fantasy option today against the Rays, who have the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching.
Jake Odorizzi |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $6,800 |
FPPG: | 29.5 | FPPG: | 15.7 |
Pitcher Rating: | 65.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 5 | 101.6 | 4.34 | 1.80 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 11.0% | 35.2% | 49.5% | 29.7% |
2016 | 26 | 101.5 | 4.14 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 36.7% | 44.7% | 32.9% |
2015 | 28 | 98.4 | 3.90 | 3.35 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 37.3% | 40.6% | 27.0% |
Odorizzi has some glaring home/road splits this season and in his career. While he gets to pitch at home today, it’s hard to justify targeting him against the Red Sox. Boston is ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and they average the seventh most pitches per plate appearance. It’s no surprise that Odorizzi is listed as an underdog in this matchup. He is an easy fade in all league formats.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Even though I expect the Red Sox to score some runs against , they still find themselves facing an above-average pitcher in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Boston currently has the third lowest run projection of the 22 teams in action today. Odorizzi has been tough on left-handed hitters in the last two seasons, but he has allowed a .335 wOBA and 26 home runs to right-handed hitters.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.350 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.323 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.48 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (20 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.143 | 0.351 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,400 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.121 | 0.294 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $3,300 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.427 | 0.337 | 0.532 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,100 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.215 | 0.426 | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,400 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.153 | 0.401 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,700 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.274 | 0.300 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,400 |
7 | | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.131 | 0.508 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,700 |
8 | | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.182 | 0.184 | 3B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $2,800 |
9 | | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.208 | 0.330 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.360 | 0.196 | 0.370 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Tampa Bay
The Rays used to be an elite offense against left-handed pitching, but they are now ranked 23rd in team wOBA and dead last in team strikeout rate. They come into this game with the second lowest implied team total on the board, as they square off against and the Red Sox. In the last two seasons combined, Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.
- Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.309 (23 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.7% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.78 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.19 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (21 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.283 | 0.373 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,500 |
2 | | LEFT | 0.276 | 0.109 | 0.368 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,000 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.221 | 0.448 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,300 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.257 | 0.075 | 0.418 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,900 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.143 | 0.315 | SS | $2,700 | 3B | $2,700 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.203 | 0.304 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $2,700 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.168 | 0.244 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $2,700 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.250 | 0.022 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,000 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.187 | 0.054 | 0.310 | C | $2,300 | C | $2,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.309 | 0.167 | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – RED
Detroit at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
Detroit | Minnesota |
| | | |
LEFT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
MIN -105 | 9.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.395 | 6 | 33.8% | 20.8% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.356 | 1 | 32.7% | 26.6% |
SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.316 | 7 | 27.1% | 17.1% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.482 | 6 | 40.7% | 14.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Daniel Norris |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,100 |
FPPG: | 19.0 | FPPG: | 8.9 |
Pitcher Rating: | 42.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 3 | 85.7 | 5.82 | 2.93 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 44.6% | 30.4% | 32.1% |
2016 | 6 | 79.5 | 4.68 | 3.81 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 38.5% | 36.5% | 29.2% |
2015 | 13 | 79.6 | 4.45 | 3.75 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 39.3% | 43.2% | 28.7% |
In his last 19 major league starts (over the last two seasons), Norris has a SIERA above 4.50 with a strikeout rate of around 18%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate just under 30%. Today’s game against the Twins is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Basically, Vegas is expecting a close, high-scoring game. That’s not exactly an ideal situation for a pitcher, especially on the road.
Jose Berrios |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $5,900 |
FPPG: | 14.6 | FPPG: | 4.9 |
Pitcher Rating: | 45.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 17 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 4 | 79.0 | 5.05 | 8.47 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 35.0% | 36.7% | 34.4% |
2016 | 8 | 79.6 | 4.86 | 9.28 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 35.0% | 39.0% | 36.9% |
Berrios has yet to find his footing at the major league level, but he is expected to be a part of the Twins’ starting rotation for years to come. In his first eight major league starts, he has a 9.28 ERA (4.86 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of 11.5%. Until he can flash some form at this level, we should continue targeting offenses against him. The Tigers do not present a favorable matchup for Berrios, as they are ranked tenth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
The Tigers put up nine runs against the Twins last night and could have a similar outing today against . He has not shown good command in his first eight major league starts and he has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 36.9%. There are a lot of hitters to like in this lineup, but really stands out. He has been red-hot at the plate recently and he has quite the track record against the Twins in his career.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (10 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.72 (7 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.149 | 0.194 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,600 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.086 | 0.392 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,600 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.401 | 0.218 | 0.324 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $4,800 |
4 | | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.162 | 0.360 | C | $3,400 | 1B | $4,200 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.249 | 0.546 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,000 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.197 | 0.284 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,600 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.218 | 0.069 | 0.224 | 3B | $2,000 | 3B | $2,500 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.248 | 0.076 | 0.378 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,200 |
9 | | SWITCH | 0.286 | 0.082 | 0.348 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,700 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.314 | 0.143 | 0.339 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – GREEN
Minnesota
The Twins were a bit of a letdown last night against , but they have a chance to redeem themselves in a similar matchup today against . The Twins are a top ten offense against left-handed pitching and Norris hasn’t had much success at the major league level. In the last two seasons combined, he has allowed a .395 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
- Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (10 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.179 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.0% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.94 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.52 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.78 (6 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.268 | 0.482 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $5,300 |
2 | | SWITCH | 0.362 | 0.155 | 0.283 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,800 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.237 | 0.197 | OF | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $4,000 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.186 | 0.283 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,300 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.154 | 0.289 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/SS | $3,600 |
6 | | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.195 | 0.358 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,400 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.152 | 0.276 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,300 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.118 | 0.275 | C | $2,200 | C | $3,300 |
9 | | SWITCH | 0.245 | 0.075 | 0.083 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.334 | 0.171 | 0.281 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GREEN
Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
Baltimore | Washington |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
WAS -240 | 8.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.346 | 21 | 31.5% | 21.2% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.296 | 26 | 29.4% | 26.6% |
SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.337 | 10 | 26.6% | 19.7% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.224 | 26 | 27.7% | 36.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Ubaldo Jimenez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,000 |
FPPG: | 16.8 | FPPG: | 6.6 |
Pitcher Rating: | 50.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 1 | 104.0 | 4.55 | 4.15 | 26.3% | 15.8% | 11.1% | 42.4% | 42.4% | 24.2% |
2016 | 18 | 98.2 | 5.02 | 6.94 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 48.4% | 31.0% | 32.4% |
2015 | 32 | 95.6 | 3.93 | 4.11 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 49.1% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
Jimenez is having a down season. In 18 starts, he has a 6.94 ERA (5.02 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 12.9%. He still induces a high ground ball rate, but his strikeout rate is too low and his hard hit contact rate is too high. He is the largest underdog in the slate tonight, as he squares off against and the Nationals. Jimenez grades out as one of the worst pitching options available.
Max Scherzer |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $10,900 | Salary: | $11,600 |
FPPG: | 44.3 | FPPG: | 25.4 |
Pitcher Rating: | 99.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 5 | 105.0 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 27.7% | 6.9% | 13.7% | 29.8% | 58.3% | 41.2% |
2016 | 26 | 105.4 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 31.7% | 6.4% | 14.9% | 33.8% | 48.8% | 29.4% |
2015 | 33 | 101.8 | 2.63 | 2.79 | 30.7% | 3.8% | 15.3% | 35.8% | 45.4% | 28.1% |
Scherzer will likely end up being the chalk play tonight. While the Orioles have a potent offense, Scherzer gets to face them at home under National League rules (no DH). A strikeout rate of 31.7% goes a long way in DFS, especially against a high strikeout opponent. On the season, the Orioles have the eighth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Scherzer should be his dominant self tonight and pick up an easy win.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
The Orioles are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the lowest implied team total on the board. A matchup against in Washington will do that to a team’s run projection. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.73 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.44 (22 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.210 | 0.301 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,500 |
2 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.123 | 0.331 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $2,700 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.246 | 0.314 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B/SS | $3,400 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.227 | 0.393 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 |
5 | | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.312 | 0.493 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,800 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.226 | 0.342 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,400 |
7 | | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.156 | 0.337 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,900 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.121 | 0.316 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,500 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.110 | 0.000 | | P | $5,500 | P | $4,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.323 | 0.180 | 0.353 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Stackability – RED
Washington
We go from a team with one of the lowest run projections to a team with one of the highest run projections. The Nationals have been red-hot at the plate, ranking sixth in team wOBA over the last 30 days of play. They draw one of the top matchups in the slate, as they get to face the struggling . In addition to a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, Jimenez has allowed a .337+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.06 (3 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.233 | 0.415 | SS | $4,100 | 2B/OF | $4,900 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.135 | 0.354 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,800 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.227 | 0.407 | 2B | $4,000 | 1B/2B | $5,300 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.431 | 0.292 | 0.475 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,500 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.158 | 0.421 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,700 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.146 | 0.189 | C | $3,400 | C | $4,000 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.163 | 0.414 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,200 |
8 | | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.162 | 0.249 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,400 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.196 | 0.011 | 0.527 | P | $10,900 | P | $11,600 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.323 | 0.170 | 0.383 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
LA Angels | Toronto |
| | | |
RIGHT | LEFT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
TOR -240 | 9.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.354 | 26 | 29.9% | 12.1% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.291 | 5 | 33.8% | 23.5% |
SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.354 | 28 | 34.6% | 12.9% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.300 | 29 | 30.7% | 20.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jered Weaver |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $4,300 |
FPPG: | 19.4 | FPPG: | 7.9 |
Pitcher Rating: | 21.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 22 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 5 | 88.2 | 6.46 | 6.08 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 21.9% | 45.7% | 40.0% |
2016 | 24 | 91.6 | 5.72 | 5.47 | 11.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 27.7% | 48.5% | 34.6% |
2015 | 26 | 94.2 | 4.88 | 4.64 | 13.5% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 34.4% | 46.5% | 30.2% |
There are only a handful of pitchers that I would take over and unfortunately, is one of them. He is a punching bag at this stage in his career, posting a 5.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.5% this season. Weaver is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that routinely gives up hard contact. He is one of the only pitchers in baseball that has less starts (50) than home runs allowed (54) in the last two seasons. The worst part is that I haven’t even gotten to his matchup. I’ll politely pass on Weaver against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre.
J.A. Happ |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | $10,900 |
FPPG: | 37.5 | FPPG: | 19.4 |
Pitcher Rating: | 85.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 4 | 96.0 | 2.89 | 2.05 | 33.0% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 44.1% | 37.3% | 28.3% |
2016 | 24 | 95.0 | 4.08 | 3.05 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 42.4% | 35.9% | 31.7% |
2015 | 31 | 91.6 | 3.82 | 3.61 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 41.6% | 34.1% | 31.2% |
Happ is one of the largest favorites on the board, but as we saw last night with , that doesn’t always mean he is a good play. Happ comes into the game in excellent form, posting a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. The main concern here is his matchup – on the season the Angels are ranked 15th in team wOBA and first in team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I like Happ’s chances to pick up the win, but he may give up a couple of runs in the process.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels may have one of the lowest team totals in the slate, but all is not lost. They see a major ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre and as a whole, they are a decent offense against left-handed pitching. splits may not look all that enticing, but he has allowed 29 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (15 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.297 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 16.3% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (18 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.155 | 0.278 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,000 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.231 | 0.402 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,700 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.247 | 0.260 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,800 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.148 | 0.131 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,700 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.071 | 0.242 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,500 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.282 | 0.246 | 3B | $2,700 | 1B/3B | $2,800 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.462 | 0.405 | 0.229 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,600 |
8 | | SWITCH | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,200 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.318 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.289 | 0.171 | 0.268 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Toronto
The Blue Jays are one of those offenses that always seem to underperform when we expect big things from them. It’s hard to imagine them struggling against , though. He has been so bad this season and the Blue Jays get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. In addition to all of the home runs allowed, Weaver has allowed a .354 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.56 (1 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.189 | 0.272 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,300 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.275 | | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.263 | 0.312 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $5,100 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.289 | 0.438 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,000 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.197 | 0.578 | C | $3,400 | C | $4,900 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.181 | 0.468 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $5,100 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.189 | 0.243 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,200 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.128 | 0.310 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.146 | 0.356 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.345 | 0.206 | 0.372 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , , ,
Secondary Plays – / , ,
Stackability – ALL THE GREEN
Kansas City at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
Kansas City | Miami |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
MIA -105 | 8.0 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.314 | 19 | 32.5% | 17.9% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.328 | 22 | 34.1% | 18.7% |
SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.318 | 15 | 29.0% | 17.2% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.309 | 12 | 28.7% | 16.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Edinson Volquez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $5,400 |
FPPG: | 24.7 | FPPG: | 11.3 |
Pitcher Rating: | 54.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 12 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 5 | 94.6 | 4.73 | 7.24 | 13.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 46.1% | 27.5% | 44.7% |
2016 | 26 | 97.3 | 4.55 | 5.04 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 52.6% | 29.0% | 31.3% |
2015 | 33 | 99.9 | 4.35 | 3.55 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 46.0% | 32.9% | 30.4% |
Volquez has been in such bad form lately that it’s hard to give him serious consideration. In his last five starts, he has a 7.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.9%. He is generally a ground ball pitcher, but he hasn’t been able to get those timely outs recently. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Marlins, who snapped the Royals’ nine-game winning streak last night. Given his form and Miami’s low strikeout rate, Volquez is an easy fade tonight in all league formats.
Tom Koehler |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,100 |
FPPG: | 27.0 | FPPG: | 13.2 |
Pitcher Rating: | 62.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L30 Days | 5 | 94.8 | 3.88 | 1.74 | 21.0% | 5.0% | 13.3% | 46.0% | 34.5% | 30.7% |
2016 | 25 | 94.0 | 4.84 | 3.82 | 18.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 41.9% | 34.7% | 27.1% |
2015 | 31 | 96.0 | 4.67 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 46.0% | 35.6% | 34.5% |
It feels gross saying this, but Koehler is actually on my radar tonight. He has been in good form over his last five starts, posting a 1.74 ERA (3.88 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 21%. The stat that most intrigues me is his swinging strike rate of 13.3% during that stretch. Vegas may not love Koehler in this spot, but the matchup is certainly in his favor. The Royals are ranked 27th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and they average the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Despite a nine-game winning streak before last night, the Royals are still ranked dead last in team wOBA over the last month of play. A matchup against is usually one to target, but the Royals really only have two good left-handed hitters in their lineup ( and ). Koehler has done a nice job against right-handed hitters, limiting them to a .309 wOBA in the last two seasons.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (27 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.288 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.126 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (11 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.77 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.97 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.97 (17 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.129 | 0.273 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.142 | 0.287 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,300 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.115 | 0.379 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.177 | 0.292 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,700 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.190 | 0.237 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.165 | 0.516 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,700 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.061 | 0.333 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,400 |
8 | | SWITCH | 0.229 | 0.115 | 0.228 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,500 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | | P | $7,200 | P | $5,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.271 | 0.122 | 0.318 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Miami
The Marlins have struggled offensively since losing , but they still find themselves in the playoff hunt. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against , who has not been sharp in his last five starts. This isn’t a matchup that stands out for batters of a certain handedness, but Volquez has allowed a .314+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.314 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.03 (16 of 22)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.074 | 0.267 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,600 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.100 | 0.318 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,900 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.178 | 0.283 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,900 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.143 | 0.299 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.123 | 0.344 | C | $2,900 | C | $4,200 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.266 | 0.046 | 0.295 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,700 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.087 | 0.343 | | | 1B | $2,600 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.078 | 0.235 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,600 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.117 | 0.014 | 0.351 | P | $7,300 | P | $7,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.287 | 0.094 | 0.304 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
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