MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 25th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


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Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
Article Image Drew Pomeranz Article Image Jake Odorizzi
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -130 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.239 4 26.8% 24.5% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.264 14 28.7% 25.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.293 20 27.2% 25.2% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.335 26 30.7% 17.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $11,500
FPPG: 35.5 FPPG: 19.5
Pitcher Rating: 80.7 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 88.5 4.26 3.31 22.0% 9.2% 9.4% 50.0% 37.2% 27.8%
2016 24 96.2 3.89 2.95 26.3% 9.8% 10.8% 47.6% 37.3% 28.6%
2015 9 160.2 3.73 3.66 23.0% 8.7% 11.0% 42.2% 36.3% 24.9%

Pomeranz is having a career season and the Red Sox are going to need all they can get out of him as they make their push for the postseason. In 24 starts, Pomeranz has a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.3%. He induces a lot of ground balls and he doesn’t given up a lot of hard contact. He is an excellent fantasy option today against the Rays, who have the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 29.5 FPPG: 15.7
Pitcher Rating: 65.4 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 101.6 4.34 1.80 20.0% 5.6% 11.0% 35.2% 49.5% 29.7%
2016 26 101.5 4.14 3.63 22.0% 6.8% 9.6% 36.7% 44.7% 32.9%
2015 28 98.4 3.90 3.35 21.4% 6.6% 10.1% 37.3% 40.6% 27.0%

Odorizzi has some glaring home/road splits this season and in his career. While he gets to pitch at home today, it’s hard to justify targeting him against the Red Sox. Boston is ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and they average the seventh most pitches per plate appearance. It’s no surprise that Odorizzi is listed as an underdog in this matchup. He is an easy fade in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Even though I expect the Red Sox to score some runs against Jake Odorizzi, they still find themselves facing an above-average pitcher in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Boston currently has the third lowest run projection of the 22 teams in action today. Odorizzi has been tough on left-handed hitters in the last two seasons, but he has allowed a .335 wOBA and 26 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.351 0.143 0.351 2B $3,200 2B $3,400
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.335 0.121 0.294 SS $3,600 SS $3,300
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.427 0.337 0.532 1B $4,200 1B $5,100
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.368 0.215 0.426 OF $4,200 OF $5,400
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.312 0.153 0.401 1B $3,300 1B $3,700
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.374 0.274 0.300 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.335 0.131 0.508 C $2,700 C $3,700
8 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.328 0.182 0.184 3B $2,900 1B/3B $2,800
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.411 0.208 0.330 OF $2,900 OF $3,000
Team Averages 0.360 0.196 0.370

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays used to be an elite offense against left-handed pitching, but they are now ranked 23rd in team wOBA and dead last in team strikeout rate. They come into this game with the second lowest implied team total on the board, as they square off against Drew Pomeranz and the Red Sox. In the last two seasons combined, Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.400 0.283 0.373 2B $3,400 2B $4,500
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.276 0.109 0.368 OF $3,200 OF $3,000
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.369 0.221 0.448 3B $3,300 3B $4,300
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.257 0.075 0.418 SS $3,300 SS $3,900
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.353 0.143 0.315 SS $2,700 3B $2,700
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.303 0.203 0.304 2B $2,500 2B/SS $2,700
7 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.292 0.168 0.244 OF $2,800 OF $2,700
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.343 0.250 0.022 OF $2,000 OF $2,000
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.187 0.054 0.310 C $2,300 C $2,000
Team Averages 0.309 0.167 0.311

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Stackability – RED

Detroit at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Detroit Minnesota
Article Image Daniel Norris Article Image Jose Berrios
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN -105 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.395 6 33.8% 20.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.356 1 32.7% 26.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.316 7 27.1% 17.1% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.482 6 40.7% 14.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,100
FPPG: 19.0 FPPG: 8.9
Pitcher Rating: 42.6 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 85.7 5.82 2.93 11.1% 11.1% 6.6% 44.6% 30.4% 32.1%
2016 6 79.5 4.68 3.81 18.3% 8.4% 7.1% 38.5% 36.5% 29.2%
2015 13 79.6 4.45 3.75 17.9% 7.6% 9.2% 39.3% 43.2% 28.7%

In his last 19 major league starts (over the last two seasons), Norris has a SIERA above 4.50 with a strikeout rate of around 18%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate just under 30%. Today’s game against the Twins is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Basically, Vegas is expecting a close, high-scoring game. That’s not exactly an ideal situation for a pitcher, especially on the road.

Jose Berrios
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,900
FPPG: 14.6 FPPG: 4.9
Pitcher Rating: 45.8 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 79.0 5.05 8.47 14.8% 7.4% 6.7% 35.0% 36.7% 34.4%
2016 8 79.6 4.86 9.28 20.5% 11.5% 8.6% 35.0% 39.0% 36.9%

Berrios has yet to find his footing at the major league level, but he is expected to be a part of the Twins’ starting rotation for years to come. In his first eight major league starts, he has a 9.28 ERA (4.86 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of 11.5%. Until he can flash some form at this level, we should continue targeting offenses against him. The Tigers do not present a favorable matchup for Berrios, as they are ranked tenth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers put up nine runs against the Twins last night and could have a similar outing today against Jose Berrios. He has not shown good command in his first eight major league starts and he has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 36.9%. There are a lot of hitters to like in this lineup, but Miguel Cabrera really stands out. He has been red-hot at the plate recently and he has quite the track record against the Twins in his career.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.332 0.149 0.194 2B $3,900 2B $3,600
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.315 0.086 0.392 OF $3,000 OF $4,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.401 0.218 0.324 1B $4,200 1B $4,800
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.310 0.162 0.360 C $3,400 1B $4,200
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.379 0.249 0.546 OF $4,000 OF $5,000
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.334 0.197 0.284 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
7 Casey McGehee RIGHT 0.218 0.069 0.224 3B $2,000 3B $2,500
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.248 0.076 0.378 C $2,600 C $3,200
9 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.286 0.082 0.348 SS $2,900 SS $3,700
Team Averages 0.314 0.143 0.339

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton, Erick Aybar

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins were a bit of a letdown last night against Matt Boyd, but they have a chance to redeem themselves in a similar matchup today against Daniel Norris. The Twins are a top ten offense against left-handed pitching and Norris hasn’t had much success at the major league level. In the last two seasons combined, he has allowed a .395 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.369 0.268 0.482 2B $4,100 2B $5,300
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.362 0.155 0.283 OF $3,100 OF $3,800
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.382 0.237 0.197 OF $3,200 3B/OF $4,000
4 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.336 0.186 0.283 3B $2,700 3B $3,300
5 Jorge Polanco RIGHT 0.370 0.154 0.289 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,600
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.322 0.195 0.358 SS $2,900 SS $3,400
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.315 0.152 0.276 OF $3,100 OF $3,300
8 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.303 0.118 0.275 C $2,200 C $3,300
9 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.245 0.075 0.083 OF $2,500 OF $3,000
Team Averages 0.334 0.171 0.281

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Trevor Plouffe, Jorge Polanco

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore Washington
Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez Article Image Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -240 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.346 21 31.5% 21.2% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.296 26 29.4% 26.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.337 10 26.6% 19.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.224 26 27.7% 36.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 16.8 FPPG: 6.6
Pitcher Rating: 50.3 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 104.0 4.55 4.15 26.3% 15.8% 11.1% 42.4% 42.4% 24.2%
2016 18 98.2 5.02 6.94 19.0% 12.9% 8.1% 48.4% 31.0% 32.4%
2015 32 95.6 3.93 4.11 21.2% 8.6% 8.0% 49.1% 28.8% 27.0%

Jimenez is having a down season. In 18 starts, he has a 6.94 ERA (5.02 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 12.9%. He still induces a high ground ball rate, but his strikeout rate is too low and his hard hit contact rate is too high. He is the largest underdog in the slate tonight, as he squares off against Max Scherzer and the Nationals. Jimenez grades out as one of the worst pitching options available.

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $11,600
FPPG: 44.3 FPPG: 25.4
Pitcher Rating: 99.2 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 105.0 3.72 3.62 27.7% 6.9% 13.7% 29.8% 58.3% 41.2%
2016 26 105.4 3.05 3.05 31.7% 6.4% 14.9% 33.8% 48.8% 29.4%
2015 33 101.8 2.63 2.79 30.7% 3.8% 15.3% 35.8% 45.4% 28.1%

Scherzer will likely end up being the chalk play tonight. While the Orioles have a potent offense, Scherzer gets to face them at home under National League rules (no DH). A strikeout rate of 31.7% goes a long way in DFS, especially against a high strikeout opponent. On the season, the Orioles have the eighth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Scherzer should be his dominant self tonight and pick up an easy win.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the lowest implied team total on the board. A matchup against Max Scherzer in Washington will do that to a team’s run projection. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.347 0.210 0.301 OF $3,300 OF $3,500
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.383 0.123 0.331 OF $3,100 OF $2,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 0.246 0.314 3B $3,700 3B/SS $3,400
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.348 0.227 0.393 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.384 0.312 0.493 1B $3,500 1B $3,800
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.359 0.226 0.342 2B $3,100 2B $3,400
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.313 0.156 0.337 C $2,400 C $2,900
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.280 0.121 0.316 SS $2,200 SS $2,500
9 Ubaldo Jimenez RIGHT 0.110 0.000 P $5,500 P $4,000
Team Averages 0.323 0.180 0.353

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

We go from a team with one of the lowest run projections to a team with one of the highest run projections. The Nationals have been red-hot at the plate, ranking sixth in team wOBA over the last 30 days of play. They draw one of the top matchups in the slate, as they get to face the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez. In addition to a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, Jimenez has allowed a .337+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.376 0.233 0.415 SS $4,100 2B/OF $4,900
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.294 0.135 0.354 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.378 0.227 0.407 2B $4,000 1B/2B $5,300
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.431 0.292 0.475 OF $3,900 OF $5,500
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.331 0.158 0.421 3B $3,500 3B $4,700
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.309 0.146 0.189 C $3,400 C $4,000
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.291 0.163 0.414 1B $3,000 1B $4,200
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.303 0.162 0.249 SS $3,300 SS $3,400
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.196 0.011 0.527 P $10,900 P $11,600
Team Averages 0.323 0.170 0.383

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

LA Angels Toronto
Article Image Jered Weaver Article Image J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -240 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.354 26 29.9% 12.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.291 5 33.8% 23.5%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.354 28 34.6% 12.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.300 29 30.7% 20.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jered Weaver
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 19.4 FPPG: 7.9
Pitcher Rating: 21.9 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 88.2 6.46 6.08 6.7% 5.0% 7.9% 21.9% 45.7% 40.0%
2016 24 91.6 5.72 5.47 11.5% 6.2% 8.1% 27.7% 48.5% 34.6%
2015 26 94.2 4.88 4.64 13.5% 4.9% 8.3% 34.4% 46.5% 30.2%

There are only a handful of pitchers that I would take Ubaldo Jimenez over and unfortunately, Jered Weaver is one of them. He is a punching bag at this stage in his career, posting a 5.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.5% this season. Weaver is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that routinely gives up hard contact. He is one of the only pitchers in baseball that has less starts (50) than home runs allowed (54) in the last two seasons. The worst part is that I haven’t even gotten to his matchup. I’ll politely pass on Weaver against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre.

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,900
FPPG: 37.5 FPPG: 19.4
Pitcher Rating: 85.1 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 96.0 2.89 2.05 33.0% 7.0% 13.3% 44.1% 37.3% 28.3%
2016 24 95.0 4.08 3.05 22.0% 7.3% 10.0% 42.4% 35.9% 31.7%
2015 31 91.6 3.82 3.61 21.1% 6.3% 8.1% 41.6% 34.1% 31.2%

Happ is one of the largest favorites on the board, but as we saw last night with Marco Estrada, that doesn’t always mean he is a good play. Happ comes into the game in excellent form, posting a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. The main concern here is his matchup – on the season the Angels are ranked 15th in team wOBA and first in team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I like Happ’s chances to pick up the win, but he may give up a couple of runs in the process.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels may have one of the lowest team totals in the slate, but all is not lost. They see a major ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre and as a whole, they are a decent offense against left-handed pitching. J.A. Happ splits may not look all that enticing, but he has allowed 29 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.318 0.155 0.278 OF $3,000 OF $3,000
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.400 0.231 0.402 OF $4,000 OF $4,700
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.333 0.247 0.260 1B $3,400 1B $3,800
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.297 0.148 0.131 1B $2,900 1B $3,700
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.274 0.071 0.242 SS $2,200 SS $2,500
6 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.357 0.282 0.246 3B $2,700 1B/3B $2,800
7 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.462 0.405 0.229 C $2,500 C $2,600
8 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.159 0.000 0.303 3B $2,100 3B $2,200
9 Nick Buss RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.318 OF $2,200 OF $2,200
Team Averages 0.289 0.171 0.268

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte, Jett Bandy

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of those offenses that always seem to underperform when we expect big things from them. It’s hard to imagine them struggling against Jered Weaver, though. He has been so bad this season and the Blue Jays get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. In addition to all of the home runs allowed, Weaver has allowed a .354 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.364 0.189 0.272 2B $3,500 2B $4,300
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.379 0.275 OF $3,600 OF $4,500
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.393 0.263 0.312 3B $4,300 3B $5,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.391 0.289 0.438 1B $4,300 1B $5,000
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.328 0.197 0.578 C $3,400 C $4,900
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.328 0.181 0.468 SS $3,200 SS $5,100
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.332 0.189 0.243 OF $3,400 OF $4,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.299 0.128 0.310 OF $2,800 OF $3,800
9 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.288 0.146 0.356 OF $3,400 OF $4,200
Team Averages 0.345 0.206 0.372

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Darwin Barney / Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ALL THE GREEN

Kansas City at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Miami
Article Image Edinson Volquez Article Image Tom Koehler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -105 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.314 19 32.5% 17.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.328 22 34.1% 18.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.318 15 29.0% 17.2% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.309 12 28.7% 16.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,400
FPPG: 24.7 FPPG: 11.3
Pitcher Rating: 54.1 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.6 4.73 7.24 13.9% 6.2% 7.4% 46.1% 27.5% 44.7%
2016 26 97.3 4.55 5.04 16.8% 8.2% 8.5% 52.6% 29.0% 31.3%
2015 33 99.9 4.35 3.55 18.2% 8.5% 9.5% 46.0% 32.9% 30.4%

Volquez has been in such bad form lately that it’s hard to give him serious consideration. In his last five starts, he has a 7.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.9%. He is generally a ground ball pitcher, but he hasn’t been able to get those timely outs recently. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Marlins, who snapped the Royals’ nine-game winning streak last night. Given his form and Miami’s low strikeout rate, Volquez is an easy fade tonight in all league formats.

Tom Koehler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,100
FPPG: 27.0 FPPG: 13.2
Pitcher Rating: 62.1 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.8 3.88 1.74 21.0% 5.0% 13.3% 46.0% 34.5% 30.7%
2016 25 94.0 4.84 3.82 18.3% 9.9% 9.8% 41.9% 34.7% 27.1%
2015 31 96.0 4.67 4.08 17.1% 9.6% 7.3% 46.0% 35.6% 34.5%

It feels gross saying this, but Koehler is actually on my radar tonight. He has been in good form over his last five starts, posting a 1.74 ERA (3.88 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 21%. The stat that most intrigues me is his swinging strike rate of 13.3% during that stretch. Vegas may not love Koehler in this spot, but the matchup is certainly in his favor. The Royals are ranked 27th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and they average the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Despite a nine-game winning streak before last night, the Royals are still ranked dead last in team wOBA over the last month of play. A matchup against Tom Koehler is usually one to target, but the Royals really only have two good left-handed hitters in their lineup (Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon). Koehler has done a nice job against right-handed hitters, limiting them to a .309 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.304 0.129 0.273 OF $3,100 OF $3,600
2 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.308 0.142 0.287 3B $3,000 3B $3,300
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.316 0.115 0.379 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.365 0.177 0.292 1B $3,100 1B $3,700
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.322 0.190 0.237 C $2,800 C $3,300
6 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.327 0.165 0.516 OF $2,800 OF $4,700
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.270 0.061 0.333 SS $2,700 SS $3,400
8 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.229 0.115 0.228 2B $2,400 2B $2,500
9 Edinson Volquez RIGHT 0.000 0.000 P $7,200 P $5,400
Team Averages 0.271 0.122 0.318

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins have struggled offensively since losing Giancarlo Stanton, but they still find themselves in the playoff hunt. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Edinson Volquez, who has not been sharp in his last five starts. This isn’t a matchup that stands out for batters of a certain handedness, but Volquez has allowed a .314+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.322 0.074 0.267 2B $3,300 2B $4,600
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.308 0.100 0.318 3B $3,000 3B $3,900
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.376 0.178 0.283 OF $3,500 OF $4,900
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.303 0.143 0.299 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.320 0.123 0.344 C $2,900 C $4,200
6 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.266 0.046 0.295 OF $2,700 OF $3,700
7 Xavier Scruggs RIGHT 0.299 0.087 0.343 1B $2,600
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.271 0.078 0.235 SS $2,200 SS $2,600
9 Tom Koehler RIGHT 0.117 0.014 0.351 P $7,300 P $7,100
Team Averages 0.287 0.094 0.304

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious