MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-30 21:34:13

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cincinnati
			Wade Miley							Cody Reed
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-120							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.417	54.1%	0.00	11.8%	40.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.122	0.160	40.0%	0.00	20.0%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.303	40.5%	0.68	16.6%	52.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.391	0.310	27.6%	3.00	23.8%	51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			13 of 20	Salary Rank:			9 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	5.07	5.61	19.5%	12.8%	50.3%	32.5%	16.6%	91.0	8.1%
	2018	10	4.96	2.32	15.4%	9.8%	49.7%	43.7%	19.0%	90.9	9.9%
	L14	2	3.55	2.70	22.9%	4.2%	45.5%	38.2%	29.4%	91.1	13.2%

There are only two early games on the scheduled today, so we will cover those quickly before diving into the main slate. If you are interested in trying out college football, but aren’t sure what you are doing, we have a new CFB DFS RotoAcademy Video with Dan Back, Justin Van Zuiden, and David Kaplen. It’s well worth the investment if you are new to the sport. We also have a new NFL course coming out this afternoon with the NFL OGs — myself, Chris Prince, and David Kaplen.

Miley may own a 2.32 ERA this season, but none of us are fooled, right? Speaking of fooled, has anyone seen “Magic for Humans” on Netflix? The magician makes a guy believe he is invisible. I was rolling on the floor. I highly recommend it to everyone. What I don’t recommend is playing Miley on a regular basis in DFS. In his ten starts, he has a SIERA close to five with a strikeout rate of only 15% this season.

Quick Breakdown: The search for an SP2 is tough in this two-game slate. Might not be the worst idea to pair a reliever with Clevinger.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Cody Reed
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:			$4,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			19 of 20	Salary Rank:			19 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	1	6.46	5.09	21.5%	24.1%	60.5%	32.6%	16.3%	94.3	13.3%
	2018	1	3.63	3.68	22.6%	6.5%	47.7%	31.8%	22.7%	93.1	10.3%
	L14	0	4.27	3.12	17.1%	8.6%	57.7%	30.8%	19.2%	93.3	9.2%

Reed has shown some talent in the minors, but every time he gets called up to the majors, he can’t seem to find the strike zone. He owns a career 11% walk rate at the major league level. In his 17 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.92 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24%. He gets to pitch at home, but that’s not always a good thing when you play for the Reds. To make matters worse, he draws a tough matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .326 with a strikeout rate of only 14% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Reed in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers and Reds teed off against each other last night in a game that ended up scoring 24 runs. While I don’t expect a repeat, I certainly prefer these two offenses over these two pitchers. In his major league career, Cody Reed has been tough on lefties (.271 wOBA), but has allowed a .410 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, and Hernan Perez all bat from the right side and all boast a .350+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.395	0.204	46.4%	12.2%	8.9%	42.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.365	0.219	46.8%	5.4%	20.1%	56.1%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.372	0.276	40.5%	15.3%	21.2%	33.8%	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.477	0.270	50.0%	10.5%	13.2%	47.7%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.354	0.255	39.7%	4.0%	17.2%	36.4%	SS	$2,300	2B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.342	0.163	37.2%	3.8%	13.1%	43.3%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.364	0.152	53.6%	2.9%	17.1%	57.1%	C	$2,400	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.224	0.034	25.0%	6.3%	17.5%	68.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Wade Miley	LEFT	0.042	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	P	$7,000	P	$7,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.326	0.175	37.7%	6.7%	14.3%	48.4%

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Erik Kratz (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds draw a favorable matchup against Wade Miley, who has had some serious reverse-splits this season. He has held righties to a .303 xwOBA, but has allowed a .417 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. It’s worth noting that he has a high hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. Eugenio Suarez (.468 xwOBA against lefties) and Phillip Ervin (.373 xwOBA against lefties) are the best plays on paper, but Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Scooter Gennett, and Tucker Barnhart are all viable targets as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.266	0.117	24.4%	7.4%	28.1%	23.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.302	0.128	25.0%	3.2%	6.5%	39.7%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.298	0.179	41.1%	5.1%	23.1%	38.2%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.468	0.313	57.1%	14.9%	20.9%	35.7%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.373	0.267	44.0%	13.9%	16.7%	32.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.321	0.127	36.8%	13.8%	24.5%	58.9%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Dilson Herrera	RIGHT	0.359	0.200	23.1%	9.1%	31.8%	16.7%	2B	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.424	0.241	33.3%	11.4%	8.6%	37.0%	C	$2,900	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Cody Reed	LEFT							P	$5,700	P	$4,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.351	0.197	35.6%	9.9%	20.0%	35.2%

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, Phillip Ervin

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Cleveland
			Jake Odorizzi							Mike Clevinger
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-200							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.337	0.351	36.2%	1.49	21.6%	25.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.337	35.5%	0.93	20.6%	36.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.334	35.6%	0.93	25.0%	31.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.276	0.272	36.8%	0.84	28.1%	42.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:			13 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.90	4.14	21.0%	10.1%	30.6%	36.8%	15.3%	91.6	11.2%
	2018	27	4.33	4.38	23.5%	9.1%	28.9%	35.9%	20.0%	91.0	10.4%
	L14	2	3.98	3.75	23.4%	6.4%	33.3%	39.4%	24.2%	90.8	9.2%

Odorizzi was a great fit for Tampa Bay. They have one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the American League and they know how to get the best out of their pitching staff. While his numbers have been decent this season, we can only target him in favorable strikeout matchups. He’s always susceptible to the long ball, so he needs to be able to rack up strikeouts. He draws one of the worst possible matchups today, as he faces the Indians in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Cleveland’s projected lineup boasts a .362 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate and a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Odorizzi in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,600	Salary:			$9,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 20	Salary Rank:			4 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%	92.5	12.5%
	2018	26	3.98	3.30	24.3%	8.2%	39.5%	36.2%	17.4%	93.4	11.6%
	L14	2	3.26	2.25	31.3%	6.3%	26.7%	43.3%	13.3%	94.0	13.9%

Clevinger is clearly the top pitching option in the early slate and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t 90% owned in all formats. He’s really the only pitcher with strikeout upside given the fact that Miley has a low k-rate and that both Odorizzi and Reed are facing low-strikeout offenses. In 26 starts this season, Clevinger owns a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. The Twins have been good against right-handed pitching as a whole, but their current lineup is far from intimidating. It features a 24% k-rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have the worst matchup of any team in the two early games. While it sounds strange, it’s actually not a terrible idea to play Mike Clevinger and one of these Twins’ hitters in the same lineup. The Twins will be low-owned and a run or two allowed from Clevinger isn’t really going to hurt you at such high ownership. On the season, Clevinger has allowed a .337 xwOBA to lefties, which brings Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler into play as one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.390	0.097	43.7%	10.8%	13.7%	51.5%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.271	0.078	29.0%	7.6%	20.1%	50.4%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.333	0.219	38.3%	6.1%	17.6%	31.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.318	0.124	28.1%	11.5%	18.7%	41.5%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.309	0.220	49.1%	9.5%	37.8%	44.3%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.335	0.199	38.8%	11.8%	13.8%	41.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.291	0.257	40.4%	2.8%	42.5%	43.9%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.376	0.196	33.0%	6.6%	27.2%	44.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.326	0.181	44.4%	8.4%	24.1%	43.3%	C	$2,400	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.328	0.175	38.3%	8.3%	23.9%	43.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario (GPP), Max Kepler (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians have the highest implied run total of the four teams playing in the early slate. Every single batter in their projected lineup has a hard contact rate of at least 38% against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .351 xwOBA to lefties and a .334 xwOBA to righties. Each of the first five batters in this lineup own a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.393	0.254	42.3%	9.3%	16.3%	36.1%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.405	0.183	42.6%	9.0%	8.0%	43.3%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.414	0.354	39.1%	17.8%	11.5%	31.6%	3B	$5,000	3B	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.382	0.262	42.9%	8.3%	23.1%	39.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.377	0.212	38.1%	9.1%	19.8%	37.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.153	38.2%	8.5%	12.8%	47.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.348	0.133	38.0%	10.4%	17.6%	35.9%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.308	0.154	42.8%	4.2%	27.4%	33.5%	C	$2,800	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.292	0.092	38.8%	4.3%	16.0%	46.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.362	0.200	40.3%	9.0%	16.9%	38.9%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Detroit								NY Yankees
			Francisco Liriano							J.A. Happ
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-320							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.214	0.302	26.7%	0.72	22.2%	59.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.223	0.285	28.8%	0.57	26.4%	53.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.380	0.404	34.4%	1.74	16.8%	43.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.317	30.8%	1.52	27.4%	38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,700	Salary:		$9,500
	Salary Rank:			20 of 20	Salary Rank:			20 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%	92.9	9.6%
	2018	20	5.32	4.82	17.9%	13.4%	46.3%	32.9%	17.4%	91.9	10.2%
	L14	2	6.24	10.29	11.1%	13.9%	42.3%	51.9%	3.7%	92.4	6.9%

Liriano is one of the least talented pitchers to take the mound tonight and he squares off against the Yankees in a home run-friendly ballpark. Baseball can be random at times, but I have a hard time seeing Liriano coming out of this one unscathed. In his 20 starts this season, he has a 5.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 13%. The Yankees are missing some key hitters in their lineup, but they still have four hitters in their projected lineup with at least a .230 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,100	Salary:			$10,000	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20
	2017	25	4.11	3.53	22.7%	7.4%	46.9%	26.7%	20.3%	91.8	9.5%
	2018	25	3.55	3.80	27.2%	7.2%	41.7%	30.4%	22.0%	91.9	10.8%
	L14	2	2.55	3.18	34.7%	4.1%	30.0%	26.7%	20.0%	91.9	14.8%

Justin Verlander has a slightly higher projection tonight, but Happ is my preferred number one. There aren’t many value plays at hitter tonight (at least not yet), so we can use the discount that we get going Happ over Verlander. He comes into the game in excellent form and his numbers as a whole are solid — 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Not only that, but he draws one of the top matchups on the board. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .292 with a strikeout rate of 23% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Happ offers a high floor and a high ceiling, which makes him an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York, but they have a serious lack of talent and they draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. J.A. Happ is having a career year. In addition to a 27% strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. I will likely be fading the Tigers as a whole, but I suppose you can make a case for Nick Castellanos (.421 xwOBA against lefties) and James McCann (.362 xwOBA against lefties) as one-off plays in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.340	0.200	39.5%	7.6%	25.8%	46.5%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,700
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.265	0.051	30.8%	9.3%	30.2%	34.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.421	0.225	51.1%	7.6%	19.8%	37.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,300
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.313	0.102	36.0%	7.5%	21.7%	60.0%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,400	2B	$6,500
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.325	0.101	25.0%	5.1%	9.4%	40.0%	C	$2,400	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,800
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.362	0.124	33.9%	6.3%	25.3%	40.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
7	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.219	0.132	25.8%	0.0%	20.5%	46.4%	SS	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,500
8	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.088	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	30.0%	42.9%	OF	$2,400	1B	$3,300	LF	$6,400
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.293	0.133	49.2%	6.0%	25.0%	46.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.292	0.119	34.0%	5.5%	23.1%	43.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP), James McCann (DK GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have let us down in obvious stacking situations this week, but they have a chance to right all of their wrongs tonight. They draw a fantastic matchup against Francisco Liriano. In addition to having one of the highest walk rates of any starter in baseball, Liriano has allowed a .404 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Yankees might throw nine righties at Liriano tonight, which is only going to lead to good things for this offense. A full stack is firmly in play, while Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres all stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.400	0.274	48.3%	13.5%	18.8%	35.2%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900	CF	$8,700
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.451	0.336	59.3%	11.2%	25.2%	39.6%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,300	RF	$9,500
3	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.319	0.231	32.1%	5.0%	18.0%	43.4%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,200
4	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.303	0.125	38.9%	7.7%	23.1%	38.9%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.384	0.286	49.2%	11.5%	26.0%	30.8%	SS	$4,000	2B	$4,800	2B	$8,900
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.242	0.078	29.2%	7.1%	24.3%	46.8%	2B	$3,000	1B/2B	$3,900	2B	$7,400
7	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.271	0.183	31.1%	3.2%	24.2%	44.4%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,400
8	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.177	0.154	35.0%	3.7%	22.2%	50.0%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,400
9	Shane Robinson	RIGHT	0.150	0.000	15.4%	5.6%	22.2%	16.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.300	0.185	37.6%	7.6%	22.7%	38.4%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Austin Romine (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								St. Louis
			Joe Musgrove							John Gant
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-108							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.314	33.6%	1.13	15.2%	50.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.347	57.4%	1.22	19.0%	39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.284	33.8%	0.70	22.2%	43.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.272	31.9%	0.22	20.8%	52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Joe Musgrove
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:		$14,100
	Salary Rank:			8 of 20	Salary Rank:			12 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20
	2017	15	4.04	4.77	21.2%	6.1%	44.9%	30.2%	20.2%	92.9	11.7%
	2018	15	4.14	3.56	19.0%	5.2%	46.6%	33.7%	21.1%	93.1	10.3%
	L14	2	3.17	4.09	24.4%	0.0%	43.8%	41.2%	17.7%	92.6	11.5%

Musgrove has quietly had a nice season for the Pirates. In 15 starts, he has a 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He has good control and an ability to induce ground balls. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog, but this is actually a decent matchup. He will be facing a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ lineup that has a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. On the season, Musgrove has held right-handed hitters to a .284 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: At the very least, Musgrove is worth a look in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
John Gant
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:		11 of 20
	2017	2	5.57	4.67	14.5%	13.2%	53.7%	29.6%	25.9%	93.0	9.3%
	2018	13	4.64	3.56	19.8%	10.5%	45.6%	45.6%	16.7%	93.3	11.3%
	L14	2	5.91	2.38	14.6%	14.6%	51.5%	44.1%	8.8%	93.5	12.0%

Gant may have a low ERA this season, but his advanced numbers suggest some serious regression. In 13 starts this season, he has a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%, a walk rate of 11%, and a hard contact rate of 46%. Eventually, those walks and that hard contact is going to catch up with him. While the Pirates aren’t the most potent offense around, they have a very low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than upside associated with Gant tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gant in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against John Gant, but they are facing him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. As far as core plays go, there aren’t any from this game. With that said, Gant has really struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .347 xwOBA and a 57% hard contact rate. That is a massive number, which brings a few hitters into play for tournaments. Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, and Corey Dickerson all bat from the left side and all boast a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.339	0.183	35.3%	5.0%	18.7%	46.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,600
2	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.333	0.186	30.4%	9.2%	13.0%	53.2%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,300
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.368	0.269	35.7%	12.4%	22.0%	32.8%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,200
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.378	0.202	34.4%	12.2%	21.7%	37.8%	C	$3,200	C	$4,000	C	$7,500
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.360	0.193	38.0%	3.8%	12.5%	35.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,300
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.344	0.130	30.5%	12.5%	16.2%	51.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.345	0.126	31.6%	7.5%	15.9%	44.4%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.325	0.138	28.3%	8.2%	22.6%	39.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,500
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT	0.096	0.000	8.3%	0.0%	33.3%	85.7%	P	$8,300	P	$7,000	P	$14,100
	Team Averages		0.321	0.159	30.3%	7.9%	19.5%	47.4%

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco (GPP), Corey Dickerson (GPP)

Secondary Plays -Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco (Cash), Corey Dickerson (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals have won seven of their last ten games and would make the playoffs as a wildcard if the regular season ended today. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against Joe Musgrove, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. If you are interested in the Cardinals’ offense, you are likely banking on their talent rather than their matchup. Matt Carpenter had to leave last night’s game early, so keep an eye out on his status for tonight. If he’s back in the lineup, he’s obviously viable as a one-off. He boasts a .435 xwOBA and a 49% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.435	0.304	49.0%	14.4%	22.6%	21.0%	1B	$4,500	1B/3B	$5,000	3B	$9,800
2	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.352	0.173	44.8%	5.4%	12.8%	41.2%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	C	$7,300
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.397	0.179	40.7%	7.4%	16.3%	47.1%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
4	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.374	0.267	36.1%	9.9%	20.6%	32.9%	1B	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Tyler O’Neill	RIGHT	0.323	0.261	38.1%	3.9%	38.2%	28.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,200
6	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.358	0.203	38.7%	6.4%	25.6%	31.8%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,200
7	Greg Garcia	LEFT	0.309	0.067	28.3%	9.6%	15.4%	44.4%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,700	2B	$5,800
8	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.271	0.136	35.2%	7.6%	31.8%	43.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,400
9	John Gant	RIGHT	0.116	0.000	6.7%	0.0%	31.8%	72.7%	P	$6,500	P	$6,800	P	$13,700
	Team Averages		0.326	0.177	35.3%	7.2%	23.9%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (Cash), Matt Adams (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Atlanta
			Mike Montgomery							Mike Foltynewicz
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-125							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.343	29.9%	0.62	18.0%	56.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	0.302	33.9%	1.10	28.0%	41.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.334	31.5%	0.64	13.0%	51.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.281	35.5%	0.63	28.9%	42.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:			18 of 20	Salary Rank:			15 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20
	2017	14	4.46	3.38	18.5%	10.2%	57.8%	30.2%	20.7%	92.2	8.4%
	2018	13	4.59	3.62	14.4%	7.6%	52.8%	31.1%	22.5%	91.6	8.9%

Montgomery has a low ERA, but he doesn’t offer a ton of upside and his advanced numbers suggest some regression moving forward. In his 13 starts, he owns a 4.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but that makes him a better real life pitcher than daily fantasy baseball pitcher. He draws a difficult matchup against the Braves, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .322 with a 36% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching this season. Atlanta’s offense is also full of fly-ball hitters, which could help negate Montgomery’s high ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: We can safely avoid Montgomery tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,600	Salary:			$10,400	Salary:		$20,200
	Salary Rank:			2 of 20	Salary Rank:			2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20
	2017	28	4.57	4.79	20.7%	8.5%	39.4%	28.1%	15.8%	95.3	9.4%
	2018	25	3.66	2.67	28.4%	9.4%	41.6%	34.7%	19.4%	96.5	10.3%
	L14	2	2.52	0.69	35.4%	4.2%	24.1%	37.9%	24.1%	96.3	9.5%

Foltynewicz has had a career year for the Braves, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He doesn’t have the best control, but we are willing to live with a 9% walk rate when it is accompanied by a 28% strikeout rate. His matchup against the Cubs looks tough on paper, but their projected lineup does have a 24% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. Foltynewicz gets to face the Cubs at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he comes into the game as a small favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is viable in all formats, although I prefer J.A. Happ at a similar price point.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a negative ballpark shift playing in SunTrust Park, which has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season. To make matters worse, they are facing a pitcher that owns a 28% strikeout rate. On the season, Mike Foltynewicz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. There isn’t a lot that stands out from the Cubs’ offense tonight, especially since there are a number of exploitable matchups that we can take advantage of.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.398	0.193	27.8%	6.9%	6.3%	33.8%	2B	$3,800	1B/2B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.339	0.275	36.6%	3.3%	26.0%	46.3%	SS	$3,700	2B/SS	$5,000	2B	$9,700
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.410	0.233	36.4%	12.0%	9.8%	37.4%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,900	1B	$8,900
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.365	0.179	35.5%	13.1%	13.4%	44.2%	OF	$2,700	2B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.341	0.134	29.5%	9.1%	10.9%	45.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,400
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	29.4%	7.3%	21.2%	52.0%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,500
7	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.375	0.270	42.1%	14.7%	25.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
8	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.141	0.000	14.3%	4.5%	63.6%	66.7%	P	$5,800	P	$6,300	P	$12,700
9	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.359	0.190	41.8%	17.0%	35.1%	36.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.336	0.179	32.6%	9.8%	23.5%	44.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

The Braves are the preferred offense to target here, but I plan to have very little exposure to this game as a whole. Mike Montgomery has allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters, but he has an elite ground ball rate against both and has done a very nice job of limiting hard contact. We know that SunTrust Park is tough on right-handed hitters, which limits the appeal of this Braves’ offense as a whole. While they are far from core plays, Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo, and Kurt Suzuki are on my radar for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.388	0.279	41.9%	11.1%	24.2%	43.5%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,200	LF	$9,700
2	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.347	0.239	40.7%	6.8%	19.7%	41.9%	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$3,900	3B	$7,500
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.408	0.250	39.4%	9.0%	19.6%	39.4%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.330	0.166	38.9%	8.2%	14.4%	42.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.370	0.192	39.3%	7.5%	15.0%	37.7%	C	$2,300	C	$4,200	C	$8,400
6	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.356	0.208	39.0%	3.0%	14.5%	41.8%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,600
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.353	0.178	42.1%	12.9%	21.6%	26.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.287	0.182	41.3%	9.3%	25.8%	40.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,400
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.055	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$10,600	P	$10,400	P	$20,200
	Team Averages		0.322	0.188	35.8%	7.5%	22.8%	45.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 30th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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