MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-13 02:09:11

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Baltimore
			Mike Pelfrey					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -165					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.384	9	11.6%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.324	15	22.5%	8.7%
SP vs. Right	0.321	8	12.0%	3.0%	SP vs. Right	0.329	9	20.3%	9.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Mike Pelfrey
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$4,400
				FPPG:		12.2	FPPG:		3.5
				Pitcher Rating:		25.1	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	4.28	13.6%	6.8%	11.0%	54.3%	22.9%	31.4%	3.00
2016	6	5.43	10.5%	10.5%	8.2%	49.1%	26.8%	38.9%	1.78
2015	30	4.59	12.0%	6.3%	5.6%	50.8%	26.4%	26.1%	0.60

Pelfrey is not the prototypical DFS pitcher. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball and he isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog on the road against an Orioles’ offense that has the highest team run total on the board. Pelfrey should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Ubaldo Jimenez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,000
				FPPG:		30.3	FPPG:		14.5
				Pitcher Rating:		56.0	Pitcher Rank:		8
L14 Days	2	4.24	15.8%	8.8%	7.5%	62.5%	25.0%	19.5%	0.71
2016	6	3.91	22.2%	10.1%	8.2%	55.3%	25.2%	30.5%	1.01
2015	32	3.93	21.2%	8.6%	8.0%	49.1%	28.8%	27.0%	0.98

Jimenez has pitched fairly well this season, posting a 3.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.2%. His biggest struggle has always been his command, as evidenced by his 10.1% walk rate. He doesn’t generate a ton of swings and misses, but he is at least a large favorite tonight against the Tigers. While Detroit does have a stacked offense, they are a right-handed heavy lineup that has the fifth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. While I won’t be targeting him tonight, Jimenez does grade out as the eighth best pitching option.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest team run total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a .324 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I’m not a huge proponent of BvP, but Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton all have at least two home runs against Jimenez in the past.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.4% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (4 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.330	0.135	0.292	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,000
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.353	0.229	0.212	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.400	0.185	0.355	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,100
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.295	0.144	0.426	C	$3,000	1B	$4,400
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.344	0.207	0.312	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,700
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.318	0.169	0.574	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,500
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.259	0.080	0.155	C	$2,100	C	$3,000
8	Anthony Gose	LEFT	0.315	0.128	0.364	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.286	0.056	0.190	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.148	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles should be the most popular team to stack tonight – in both cash games and tournaments. They have the highest team run total on the board, as they square off against Mike Pelfrey at home. Over the last two seasons, Pelfrey has allowed a .384 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .321 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The only question is how many Orioles are too many Orioles?

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.361 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.207 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.4% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.13 (1 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.293	0.105	0.329	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.401	0.260	0.534	3B	$4,300	3B/SS	$5,400
3	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.412	0.348	0.396	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,200
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.337	0.201	0.345	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,400
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.338	0.180	0.427	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.312	0.134	0.254	C	$2,300	C	$3,500
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.337	0.232	0.374	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.355	0.244	0.344	2B	$2,200	2B	$4,000
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.277	0.147	0.267	2B	$2,100	3B	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.206	0.363	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					NY Yankees
			Ian Kennedy					Nathan Eovaldi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -135					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.337	18	25.2%	8.2%	SP vs. Left	0.351	7	18.4%	8.4%
SP vs. Right	0.330	16	23.2%	6.9%	SP vs. Right	0.290	9	19.7%	5.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Ian Kennedy
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,600
				FPPG:		40.0	FPPG:		21.1
				Pitcher Rating:		55.8	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	2	3.75	25.0%	8.3%	10.1%	38.7%	48.4%	29.0%	0.00
2016	6	4.00	23.2%	8.6%	10.7%	35.7%	45.9%	32.3%	0.71
2015	30	3.61	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%	1.66

Kennedy has cooled off a bit since his hot start, but he still has a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.2% this season. He is a fly ball pitcher that generally fares better in parks that don’t produce a lot of home runs. This is why we should always consider him when he is pitching at home. The Yankees’ offense has come alive in this series and Kennedy has to face them in their own ballpark.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Nathan Eovaldi
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$7,700
				FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		16.3
				Pitcher Rating:		54.3	Pitcher Rank:		10
L14 Days	2	3.10	16.1%	5.4%	9.2%	67.4%	14.0%	34.9%	1.38
2016	6	3.14	23.7%	5.1%	9.6%	55.5%	28.2%	35.5%	1.43
2015	27	3.99	18.0%	7.3%	8.7%	52.2%	26.0%	28.0%	0.58

Eovaldi has always had tremendous velocity, but this is the first season that he has been able to turn it into an elite strikeout rate. In his first six starts, he has an elite 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.7%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Royals, who are ranked 19th in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. While he’s not my favorite play on the board, Eovaldi could make a nice contrarian target in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals come into tonight’s game with a mediocre team total of 3.79 runs. They haven’t had the best start offensively this season and they draw a difficult matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who is in the best form of his career. The one split that we can possibly exploit is the .351 wOBA that Eovaldi has allowed to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.132 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.61 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.79 (9 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.268	0.061	0.333	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,300
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.332	0.130	0.430	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.385	0.186	0.397	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.347	0.224	0.203	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200
5	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.345	0.161	0.337	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.330	0.199	0.246	C	$3,300	C	$3,200
7	Omar Infante	RIGHT	0.243	0.095	0.182	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,500
8	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.323	0.186	0.308	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,600
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.293	0.123	0.156	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.152	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

The Yankees haven’t had a ton of success against right-handed pitching early on this season, but they have played well so far in this series. While Ian Kennedy may boast an above-average strikeout rate, I don’t mind targeting hitters against him in home run friendly ballparks. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed 34 home runs in 36 starts. He has also given up a .330+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.75 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (6 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.333	0.160	0.350	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
2	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.294	0.127	0.347	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,100
3	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.333	0.207	0.360	C	$3,100	C	$3,500
4	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.354	0.211	0.335	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
5	Dustin Ackley	LEFT	0.296	0.186	0.200	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$2,900
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.293	0.136	0.365	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.297	0.119	0.224	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.294	0.092	0.210	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,800
9	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.197	0.000	0.175	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.138	0.285	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Dustin Ackley, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Houston at Boston – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					Boston
			Dallas Keuchel					David Price
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -155					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.226	5	23.5%	3.8%	SP vs. Left	0.282	4	21.5%	3.9%
SP vs. Right	0.280	15	22.9%	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.281	17	27.4%	6.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Dallas Keuchel
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$6,900
				FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		13.8
				Pitcher Rating:		56.4	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	4.16	20.8%	11.3%	8.9%	60.0%	25.7%	27.8%	1.59
2016	7	4.01	19.9%	10.0%	10.9%	56.5%	21.4%	29.9%	0.61
2015	33	2.84	23.7%	5.6%	10.3%	61.7%	19.6%	21.3%	0.66

Keuchel has an elite ground ball rate (close to 60%) that allows him to succeed regardless of which ballpark he is pitching in. The issue tonight isn’t Fenway Park, it is his opponent. The Red Sox have scored at least 13 runs in three straight games. They are now ranked second in runs scored per game this season and fifth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. Keuchel’s price of $6,900 is awfully cheap on DraftKings, but he is at best a deep GPP play in this matchup.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
David Price
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$11,100
				FPPG:		34.0	FPPG:		16.6
				Pitcher Rating:		79.8	Pitcher Rank:		2
L14 Days	2	4.70	13.2%	7.6%	9.3%	47.4%	23.7%	41.5%	0.77
2016	7	3.02	29.0%	6.6%	14.1%	40.0%	30.9%	41.2%	0.87
2015	32	3.27	25.3%	5.3%	11.9%	40.4%	36.4%	28.2%	0.69

Price hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as his 6.75 ERA would suggest. His SIERA is less than half of his ERA, which suggests some positive regression moving forward. The rest of his statistics look decent, as he has a 29% strikeout rate with a 6.6% walk rate this season. He is also generating swings and misses at a higher rate than he did a year ago. While I never love targeting pitchers against the Astros, he is the preferred pitching target in this game. Price is a better target on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, given the large pricing gap.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are ranked sixth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, but they have the fourth lowest team total on the board tonight. They draw a boom or bust matchup against David Price, who should see some positive regression coming his way. You can target the right-handed hitters in this lineup, but they are best suited as GPP plays given their low team total.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.340 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.6% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.11 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.68 (13 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.432	0.196	0.402	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,300
2	George Springer	RIGHT	0.417	0.253	0.365	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.370	0.248	0.389	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,200
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.364	0.211	0.192	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400
5	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.271	0.250	0.229	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,500
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.373	0.212	0.386	1B	$2,100	1B/3B	$2,700
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.298	0.123	0.279	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
8	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.276	0.209	0.000	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
9	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.219	0.050	0.077			C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.195	0.258	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa

Stackability – GPP

Boston

The Red Sox offense put in a cheat code before their series against the A’s. They scored 40 runs in three games. Basically, if you stacked the Red Sox any of the three nights, you probably made some money in DFS. Boston has the fifth highest team total on the board tonight, but I’m not in love with the matchup. Dallas Keuchel is an extreme ground ball pitcher that has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.185 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.6% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.76 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (5 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.343	0.186	0.272	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,900
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.335	0.170	0.328	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,300
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.399	0.114	0.419	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,400
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.309	0.197	0.486	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.310	0.222	0.448	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,400
6	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.419	0.253	0.425	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.371	0.261	0.379	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.275	0.071	0.312	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.406	0.232	0.588	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700
	Team Averages	—	0.352	0.190	0.406	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Chris Young (FD)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Atlanta
			Vince Velasquez					Aaron Blair
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -130					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.275	5	23.9%	10.0%	SP vs. Left	0.330	0	5.9%	14.7%
SP vs. Right	0.302	3	30.5%	6.8%	SP vs. Right	0.241	0	9.7%	12.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Vince Velasquez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,900
				FPPG:		44.2	FPPG:		25.5
				Pitcher Rating:		78.1	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	4.18	23.4%	10.6%	8.3%	40.0%	43.3%	25.8%	0.75
2016	6	3.07	29.9%	7.5%	11.7%	38.2%	41.6%	23.1%	0.72
2015	7	3.74	25.1%	9.1%	10.5%	31.3%	46.7%	27.3%	0.81

Velasquez hasn’t been as sharp in his last couple of starts, but he still boasts a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.9% on the season. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Braves, who are ranked dead last in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Velasquez is in elite play in all league formats tonight, especially considering the fact that this game is being played in the pitcher-friendly Turner Field.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Aaron Blair
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$7,500
				FPPG:		15.3	FPPG:		7.2
				Pitcher Rating:		41.3	Pitcher Rank:		14
L14 Days	2	6.75	9.1%	15.9%	5.7%	36.4%	30.3%	24.2%	0.00
2016	3	6.70	7.7%	13.9%	5.5%	34.0%	36.0%	21.6%	0.00

Blair is making his fourth start of the season. He has not fared well in the first three, posting a 6.70 SIERA with a walk rate that is nearly twice as high as his strikeout rate. While he does draw one of the top matchups on the board, he seems a bit too expensive to use as an SP2. If you are targeting a pitcher in this game, Velasquez is clearly the better choice.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies may have the third lowest team total on the board tonight, but we shouldn’t shy away from their matchup against Aaron Blair. The sample size is a bit too small to trust his splits, but he has not fared well against left-handed pitchers in his short stint in the majors. The Phillies’ lineup could be a nice source of value tonight, especially if you are looking to roster Clayton Kershaw.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.281 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.134 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.2% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.18 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.68 (14 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.347	0.130	0.362	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,500
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.294	0.076	0.235	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,600
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.340	0.194	0.236	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,400
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.331	0.244	0.316	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,400
5	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.244	0.063	0.308	C	$2,700	C	$2,500
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.289	0.111	0.239	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.186	0.048	0.159	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200
8	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.086	0.000	0.315	P	$9,100	P	$10,900
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.252	0.119	0.280	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.263	0.109	0.272	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Howard

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.277 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.080 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.03 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.32 (15 of 16)

The Braves are the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching. They average the fewest number of runs per game on the season and they come into tonight’s game with the second lowest team total on the board. The only intriguing hitter in their lineup is Freddie Freeman. He has a .389 wOBA against right-handed pitching in the last two seasons. He also has a .529 wOBA over the last two weeks of play.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.351	0.096	0.321	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.352	0.121	0.186	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.389	0.234	0.529	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700
4	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.318	0.162	0.391	3B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,400
5	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.329	0.133	0.171	C	$2,100	C	$2,600
6	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.282	0.130	0.422	2B	$2,100	3B	$2,000
7	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.276	0.071	0.259	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,500
8	Aaron Blair	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$5,200	P	$7,500
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.318	0.137	0.384	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.291	0.120	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

San Diego at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Milwaukee
			James Shields					Jimmy Nelson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -135					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.359	24	20.2%	10.9%	SP vs. Left	0.363	16	18.7%	9.8%
SP vs. Right	0.309	15	27.8%	8.4%	SP vs. Right	0.266	10	20.6%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
James Shields
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$8,200
				FPPG:		27.9	FPPG:		14.4
				Pitcher Rating:		54.2	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	2	4.06	25.0%	13.5%	15.2%	61.3%	25.8%	31.3%	1.50
2016	7	4.71	18.3%	10.8%	10.5%	45.3%	34.4%	30.5%	1.20
2015	33	3.72	25.1%	9.4%	12.4%	44.9%	34.4%	31.2%	1.47

Shields has let us down one too many times this season. He has been faced with a number of favorable matchups at home and he has yet to churn out a solid fantasy outing. Tonight he heads to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. While Shields does have a decent strikeout rate, he is an underdog in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Jimmy Nelson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$9,200
				FPPG:		33.1	FPPG:		16.6
				Pitcher Rating:		58.1	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	2	4.00	21.2%	7.7%	6.3%	41.2%	32.4%	38.9%	1.50
2016	7	4.34	19.9%	9.9%	6.3%	49.6%	33.3%	31.8%	1.66
2015	30	4.09	19.7%	8.6%	10.0%	50.6%	29.4%	28.9%	0.91

Is Jimmy Nelson day finally upon us? He has shown upside over the last couple of seasons, but he hasn’t been great this season with a 4.34 SIERA and a 19.9% strikeout rate. The good news is that he gets to face the Padres at home. Nelson has great home splits throughout his career and as we know, the Padres are basically the same for a pitcher as Coors Field is to a hitter. San Diego ranked 29th in team wOBA and 28th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have the seventh highest team total on the board tonight. While I do like Jimmy Nelson as a pitching option tonight, that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically fade all hitters against him. Over the last two seasons, Nelson has allowed a .363 wOBA and 16 home runs to hitters from the left side of the plate.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.278 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.122 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.0% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.74 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (7 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.278	0.079	0.368	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.322	0.184	0.244	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,800
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.315	0.177	0.286	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300
4	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.395	0.243	0.427	1B	$2,300	3B	$3,000
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.319	0.148	0.322	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
6	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.267	0.097	0.239	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.284	0.139	0.294	C	$2,100	C	$3,000
8	Adam Rosales	RIGHT	0.280	0.165	0.128	2B	$2,300	3B	$2,000
9	James Shields	RIGHT	0.174	0.031	0.442	P	$7,900	P	$8,200
	Team Averages	—	0.293	0.140	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Brett Wallace

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee

The Brewers are right up there with the Orioles as one of the top offenses to target tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against James Shields, who can’t seem to keep the ball in the park. Over the last two seasons, Shields has given up 39 home runs, 24 of which have come off of the bats of left-handed hitters. The lefties have the edge in this matchup, but the right-handed bats are still in play.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.0% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.59 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (2 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.293	0.153	0.316	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.312	0.085	0.351	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.366	0.205	0.432	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,500
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.348	0.153	0.473	C	$2,900	C	$3,900
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.340	0.278	0.341	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,100
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.296	0.145	0.432	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,300
7	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.321	0.217	0.336	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,000
8	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.250	0.057	0.396	3B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,200
9	Jimmy Nelson	RIGHT	0.132	0.019	0.442	P	$7,600	P	$9,200
	Team Averages	—	0.295	0.146	0.391	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 12th

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Dustin Ackley, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Houston at Boston – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa

Stackability – GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Chris Young (FD)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Howard

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

San Diego at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Brett Wallace

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Presley

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana, Chris Carter

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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