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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-09 02:46:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Houston at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Houston Cleveland
houstonmlb David Paulino clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -150 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.310 18 33.7% 22.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.301 20 30.4% 21.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Paulino
david-paulino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 0.0 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating: 46.7 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%

Paulino is making his major league debut today, but unfortunately very few people will be watching a September game between the Astros and Indians that starts at 9 AM on the west coast. Paulino is a 22 year-old righty that is making his case to be one of the Astros’ top prospects. In Double-A starts this season, he posted a 2.20 FIP with a strikeout rate of 29.3%. He has a good fastball (94-96 MPH) and he complements it with a big curveball. While I’m excited to watch him pitch, I will not be taking him in DFS.

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $7,900
FPPG: 27.3 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 61.3 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 101.2 4.16 2.61 19.5% 7.3% 7.9% 51.3% 29.4% 31.1%
2016 23 114.1 4.31 3.70 20.5% 9.0% 8.9% 48.4% 31.8% 33.0%
2015 30 95.6 4.20 4.55 22.9% 10.6% 9.6% 39.2% 40.7% 31.0%

Home:—ERA: 4.92 — K%: 21.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.324
Away:—ERA: 3.23 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283

Bauer is one of those pitchers that you just never feel comfortable targeting in daily fantasy (similar to Gio WOAT Gonzalez). His numbers aren’t bad as a whole, but he struggles with consistency. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Astros, who are ranked 13th in team wOBA and 11th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. With this being the only early game, it is only included in the all-day slate and there are a number of pitchers that I like more that take the mound tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have a mediocre run projection today, as they square off against Trevor Bauer in Cleveland. Houston has gotten to the Indians’ rotation in this series and I expect them to put up some runs in this matchup as well. Bauer doesn’t have the best splits at home and he has allowed a hard contact rate of 33% this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.334 0.168 29.4% 0.263 OF $3,900 OF $4,500
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.326 0.189 31.0% 0.415 3B $3,200 3B $4,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.358 0.171 29.5% 0.226 2B $3,600 2B $5,600
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.361 0.206 33.7% 0.297 SS $3,700 SS $4,700
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.376 0.053 17.7% 0.291 3B $3,000 3B $2,600
6 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.324 0.227 32.0% 0.522 C $2,800 C $4,100
7 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.315 0.202 34.5% 0.371 OF $2,600 OF $3,400
8 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.295 0.134 31.1% 0.313 1B $2,700 1B $3,800
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.270 0.097 24.8% 0.324 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
Team Averages — 0.329 0.161 29.3% 0.336 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians have the second highest run projection of the 14 teams on the schedule, but there are a lot of unknowns with their matchup. Pitching debuts are always difficult to predict and David Paulino has shown great strikeout potential in the minors. I love the idea of stacking the Indians in tournaments, but I don’t consider them must plays in cash games.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.346 0.228 34.7% 0.367 1B $3,700 1B $4,700
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.373 0.185 34.7% 0.313 2B $3,900 2B $5,100
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.353 0.152 27.2% 0.364 SS $3,200 SS $4,800
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.310 0.189 32.9% 0.243 1B $3,200 1B $4,500
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.330 0.142 25.9% 0.348 3B $2,900 3B/OF $4,500
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.315 0.150 25.2% 0.209 OF $2,700 OF $3,800
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.293 0.150 22.1% 0.315 OF $2,800 OF $4,100
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.394 0.269 43.8% 0.233 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.293 0.151 26.4% 0.378 C $2,200 C $3,200
Team Averages — 0.334 0.180 30.3% 0.308 — — — —

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Dan Straily pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -145 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.306 10 29.0% 16.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.369 18 35.7% 11.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.306 17 34.9% 22.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.315 18 32.5% 21.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 27.6 FPPG: 14.2
Pitcher Rating: 57.4 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 88.3 4.30 3.98 22.4% 7.5% 11.3% 29.8% 48.9% 34.0%
2016 26 99.2 4.73 3.83 19.9% 9.3% 9.8% 32.2% 46.4% 32.5%
2015 3 97.0 4.67 5.40 18.4% 10.5% 9.6% 41.5% 37.7% 28.3%

Home:—ERA: 2.80 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away:—ERA: 5.12 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329

Straily has been in better form over the last month of play, but I’m not going to be targeting him in daily fantasy anytime soon. In 26 starts this season, he has a 4.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.9% and a walk rate of 9.3%. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against a Pirates’ team that has a lot more to play for than the Reds. He can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $9,800
FPPG: 24.1 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 76.4 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 77.2 3.59 2.89 19.3% 1.4% 8.6% 48.2% 30.0% 35.1%
2016 21 92.5 3.92 4.34 18.2% 4.8% 9.1% 52.7% 28.8% 35.4%
2015 17 89.9 4.58 5.07 15.3% 8.0% 7.8% 49.0% 31.7% 32.3%

Home:—ERA: 4.30 — K%: 16.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327
Away:—ERA: 5.03 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

You know the slate is bad when Nova grades out as one of the top pitching options. He comes into tonight’s game in good form, posting a 2.89 ERA (3.59 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 19.3% in his last six starts. He draws a favorable matchup against the Reds, who are ranked 17th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. I don’t feel good about it, but Nova is one of the top three pitching options tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season and that’s with half of their starts being in the Great American Ballpark. They see a negative ballpark shift tonight playing in PNC Park. They have the third lowest implied team total on the board. The one plus for the Reds is that Ivan Nova has allowed a .369 wOBA, 18 home runs, and a 35.7% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.312 0.046 18.7% 0.465 SS $2,700 OF/SS $3,500
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.316 0.171 29.1% 0.304 SS $3,500 SS $3,100
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.422 0.240 42.4% 0.434 1B $3,800 1B $4,900
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.347 0.284 37.2% 0.349 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.316 0.115 26.5% 0.268 2B $3,000 2B $2,900
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.326 0.203 37.3% 0.480 OF $3,000 OF $2,900
7 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.309 0.157 32.7% 0.298 3B $2,700 3B $3,100
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.317 0.122 27.5% 0.274 C $2,300 C $2,800
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.022 0.000 7.7% 0.000 P $7,600 P $8,100
Team Averages — 0.299 0.149 28.8% 0.319 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have lost eight of their last ten games and are now four and a half games out of the wildcard in the National League. They need a series sweep against the Reds. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest run projection, as they host Dan Straily. His splits don’t necessarily jump out at us, but Straily has allowed a 34.9% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.292 0.096 25.6% 0.305 2B $3,200 2B $3,600
2 John Jaso LEFT 0.342 0.146 32.1% 0.504 1B $2,600 1B $2,900
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.354 0.182 37.9% 0.370 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.333 0.173 33.2% 0.238 OF $3,900 OF $4,600
5 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.350 0.155 32.4% 0.368 OF $3,900 OF $5,400
6 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.358 0.202 37.0% 0.816 3B $3,100 3B $4,500
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.316 0.074 27.0% 0.274 C $2,700 C $2,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.274 0.085 24.4% 0.326 SS $2,600 SS $3,100
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.117 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $7,600 P $9,800
Team Averages — 0.304 0.124 27.7% 0.356 — — — —

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Alec Asher washingtonmlb A.J. Cole
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -200 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.453 4 39.7% 12.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.314 3 32.7% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.406 4 24.5% 10.5% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.284 2 16.7% 16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alec Asher
alec-asher-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 0.0 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating: 27.7 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2015 7 71.6 5.34 9.31 11.6% 7.3% 7.8% 36.1% 45.4% 32.4%

Home:—ERA: 10.80 — K%: 11.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.497
Away:—ERA: 6.75 — K%: 12.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

Asher is making his first start of the season. In seven starts last season, he posted a 5.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.6%. While he posted a low ERA in the minors this season, he has never had a high strikeout rate at any level. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Nationals on the road. This is not a good spot for Asher and he can be faded in all league formats.

A.J. Cole
a.j.-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 31.7 FPPG: 17.3
Pitcher Rating: 75.4 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 106.0 5.04 3.86 22.4% 9.2% 10.7% 21.6% 68.6% 21.6%
2016 3 106.0 5.03 3.86 22.4% 9.2% 10.7% 21.6% 68.6% 21.6%
2015 1 97.0 3.27 5.79 20.5% 2.3% 8.3% 36.4% 36.4% 32.4%

Home:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 26.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.288
Away:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309

Cole is coming off of his best major league start, allowing a single run in six innings of work against the Mets. He is still a bit of an unknown quantity at at this level, but with the lack of pitching options available tonight, he deserves a look in all formats. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Phillies are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 24th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have the lowest run projection of any team on the schedule tonight, which says a lot about the state of their offense given the fact that they are facing a pitcher that is only making his fifth career major league start. I have less confidence in the Phillies than I do in A.J. Cole, so I will be avoiding the Phillies’ bats in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.309 0.108 26.3% 0.330 2B $3,300 2B $3,500
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.343 0.143 29.7% 0.278 OF $3,300 OF $4,100
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.320 0.182 28.6% 0.190 3B $3,000 3B $3,200
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.313 0.244 38.7% 0.269 1B $2,300 1B $3,600
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.293 0.147 29.9% 0.121 C $2,700 C $2,800
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.293 0.136 28.2% 0.386 SS $2,800 SS $3,800
7 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.326 0.194 32.5% 0.245 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
8 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.277 0.143 22.5% 0.257 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
9 Alec Asher RIGHT 0.427 0.200 66.7% P $5,200 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.322 0.166 33.7% 0.260 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have let us down in some favorable spots recently, but they come into tonight’s game with the highest run projection in the slate. They draw an excellent matchup against Alec Asher, who has not pitched well at the major league level. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and you can stack the Nationals in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.362 0.198 33.3% 0.414 OF $4,100 2B/OF $5,500
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.299 0.144 34.3% 0.368 OF $3,800 OF $4,300
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.377 0.228 36.1% 0.368 2B $4,100 2B $5,500
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.428 0.289 36.8% 0.373 OF $4,200 OF $5,600
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.328 0.154 36.2% 0.353 3B $3,800 3B $4,200
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.308 0.145 30.2% 0.233 C $3,500 C $3,900
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.284 0.154 32.5% 0.181 1B $3,200 1B $3,100
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.306 0.160 30.5% 0.336 SS $2,700 SS $3,300
9 A.J. Cole RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $6,500 P $8,300
Team Averages — 0.299 0.164 30.0% 0.292 — — — —

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Alex Cobb nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -117 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.000 0 100.0% 0.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.260 5 19.4% 27.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.274 0 30.0% 38.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.346 40 28.4% 17.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 30.0 FPPG: 18.3
Pitcher Rating: 76.0 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 84.0 2.14 3.60 35.0% 5.0% 7.1% 66.7% 25.0% 41.7%
2016 1 84.0 2.14 3.60 35.0% 5.0% 7.1% 66.7% 25.0% 41.7%

Home:—ERA: 3.60 — K%: 35.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.246

Cobb was on his way to becoming one of the best pitchers in the American League before having Tommy John surgery in 2014. In his first start back in the majors, he picked up right where he left off. He struck out seven batters against the Blue Jays in five innings of work. Cobb only threw 84 pitches in that game and I expect his pitch count to be similar to that tonight. Even though he is a small underdog tonight against the Yankees, I have him ranked as the third best pitching option in the slate.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,700
FPPG: 28.6 FPPG: 14.2
Pitcher Rating: 74.9 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 99.7 3.63 4.34 26.1% 8.5% 11.2% 53.1% 31.6% 22.2%
2016 25 96.9 4.46 4.20 19.5% 8.7% 9.8% 48.8% 34.5% 24.3%
2015 29 93.2 4.08 4.73 18.9% 6.9% 9.1% 45.9% 32.4% 29.1%

Home:—ERA: 5.32 — K%: 19.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away:—ERA: 3.78 — K%: 18.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.323

Sabathia has mixed it up this season, which has led to a higher ground ball rate and a lower hard contact rate. While those are solid improvements, it hasn’t led to more success on the mound. In 25 starts this season, he has a 4.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.5%. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Rays. While they have the highest team K% against left-handed pitching this season, they have the fourth highest team wOBA over the last month of play.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Earlier in the season, CC Sabathia had a much lower wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters than he did to left-handed hitters, but it likely had to do with a small sample size. The numbers have corrected themselves, as he has allowed a .318 to righties this season. If you look at his numbers in the last two years combined, you will see a glowing number next to his home runs allowed to righties (40).

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.393 0.278 39.0% 0.396 2B $3,900 2B $4,700
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.282 0.117 26.1% 0.285 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.366 0.219 33.6% 0.252 3B $3,800 3B $4,200
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.260 0.071 22.7% 0.240 SS $3,500 1B/SS $3,700
5 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.280 0.107 10.5% 0.279 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,600
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.350 0.248 35.3% 0.606 OF $2,200 OF $2,200
7 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.291 0.159 34.7% 0.159 OF $2,700 OF $2,600
8 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.257 0.089 27.1% 0.375 C $2,000 C $2,700
9 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.312 0.217 31.7% 0.224 C $2,400 C $2,800
Team Averages — 0.310 0.167 29.0% 0.313 — — — —

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Nick Franklin, Mikie Mahtook

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees come into tonight’s game with the third highest run projection, but I’m not exactly drinking the Kool-Aid. In his last full season, Alex Cobb held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. He has an above-average strikeout rate and he looked sharp in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. I’m giving the edge to the Rays in this game.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.324 0.134 27.7% 0.272 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.308 0.105 24.6% 0.376 OF $3,300 OF $4,700
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.546 0.448 44.9% 0.415 C $3,800 C $4,700
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.312 0.148 24.2% 0.271 SS $3,000 SS $3,800
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.299 0.140 26.6% 0.306 2B $3,000 2B $3,700
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.324 0.189 33.5% 0.324 C $3,100 C $3,600
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.308 0.124 30.0% 0.375 3B $2,500 3B $3,900
8 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.306 0.220 50.0% 0.178 OF $2,500 OF $3,700
9 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.203 0.088 8.7% 0.375 1B $2,400 1B $2,500
Team Averages — 0.326 0.177 30.0% 0.321 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Milwaukee St. Louis
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra stlouismlb Jaime Garcia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL -155 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.278 4 38.6% 21.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.300 5 22.3% 21.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.280 6 29.4% 20.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.292 21 30.6% 19.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,500
FPPG: 32.8 FPPG: 17.6
Pitcher Rating: 51.9 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 70.0 5.02 0.00 18.8% 12.5% 8.6% 50.0% 30.0% 27.3%
2016 18 94.8 4.35 2.85 20.8% 8.7% 10.8% 46.2% 35.4% 33.9%
2015 0 0.0 3.28 6.75 16.7% 5.6% 10.6% 57.1% 21.4% 21.4%

Home:—ERA: 2.23 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.263
Away:—ERA: 3.83 — K%: 22.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296

Guerra has to be glad he decided to take a chance on being a pitcher. He is a former catcher that is having a solid season. In 18 starts, he has a 2.85 ERA (4.35 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. While I like his story, I don’t love the Brewers’ run support or his matchup tonight against the Cardinals. On the season, St. Louis is ranked fourth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 28.6 FPPG: 14.3
Pitcher Rating: 79.3 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.8 4.00 6.00 19.7% 7.6% 7.8% 58.7% 27.2% 34.0%
2016 27 87.9 3.93 4.41 19.9% 7.6% 8.9% 57.5% 24.1% 30.3%
2015 20 92.9 3.39 2.43 19.0% 5.9% 9.2% 61.2% 22.3% 27.1%

Home:—ERA: 2.95 — K%: 21.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.261
Away:—ERA: 4.24 — K%: 17.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Garcia has pitched well at home over the last two seasons, posting a 2.95 ERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5% and a wOBA allowed of only .261. He will face a right-handed heavy Brewers’ lineup tonight, but that isn’t really scaring anyone these days. On the season, Milwaukee has the third highest team K% against left-handed pitching. Garcia will likely be the chalk at pitcher tonight – he seems like the path of least resistance in this ugly late.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are not a good offense, especially on the road. They have decent numbers against southpaws this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the second lowest run projection in the slate. In the last two seasons, Jaime Garcia has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. He also induces an elite ground ball rate, which leads to more singles than extra-base hits.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.373 0.182 33.1% 0.383 3B $3,800 3B/SS $5,100
2 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.389 0.200 43.6% 0.332 OF $3,100 OF $3,500
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.417 0.243 39.0% 0.336 OF $4,200 OF $4,900
4 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.300 0.193 39.2% 0.310 OF $2,900 3B/OF $4,800
5 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.356 0.270 42.2% 0.382 1B $3,600 1B $4,500
6 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.404 0.250 37.3% 0.406 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.287 0.135 29.0% 0.191 C $2,400 C $2,400
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.391 0.115 36.4% 0.421 SS $2,800 SS $3,100
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.088 0.000 11.1% 0.000 P $8,600 P $8,500
Team Averages — 0.334 0.176 34.5% 0.307 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the fourth highest run projection tonight, as they square off against Junior Guerra at home. I have mixed feelings about this matchup. On the one hand, Guerra has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA this season. On the other hand, he has allowed a 38.6% hard contact rate to lefties. Eventually that hard contact is going to hurt his numbers against lefties.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.393 0.259 43.1% 0.326 2B $4,100 2B/3B $4,400
2 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.316 0.221 34.6% 0.361 3B $3,200 2B/3B $4,200
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.336 0.169 35.0% 0.365 OF $3,700 OF $3,700
4 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.336 0.255 42.7% 0.233 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,000
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.312 0.104 28.6% 0.474 C $2,900 C $3,700
6 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.355 0.280 40.7% 0.413 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
7 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.321 0.127 32.6% 0.267 SS $2,800 3B $2,900
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.324 0.139 29.0% 0.483 2B $2,600 2B $3,200
9 Jaime Garcia LEFT 0.140 0.000 26.7% 0.000 P $8,800 P $9,400
Team Averages — 0.315 0.173 34.8% 0.325 — — — —

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams or Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious