MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-17 02:38:16

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Boston					Baltimore
			Eduardo Rodriguez					Yovani Gallardo
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -105					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.344	8	30.2%	21.7%	SP vs. Left	0.341	15	24.3%	15.7%
SP vs. Right	0.316	18	30.4%	17.9%	SP vs. Right	0.318	10	28.6%	15.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		21.7	FPPG:		10.4
					Pitcher Rating:		52.7	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	6	95.8	4.08	2.80	22.4%	7.0%	11.1%	31.0%	39.0%	20.8%
2016	12	93.0	4.66	5.43	18.9%	7.9%	9.6%	30.9%	43.1%	28.3%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Rodriguez seems to be turning a corner. In his last six starts, he has a 2.80 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4%. That is a big improvement over his first six starts of the season. Tonight he heads to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in an important series for both teams. Vegas has this game set as a pick ‘em with the over/under set at 10.0 runs. I’d rather take a chance on Rodriguez over Yovani Gallardo, but in a full slate we don’t need to consider either pitcher in this one.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yovani Gallardo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		19.9	FPPG:		8.8
					Pitcher Rating:		37.5	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	6	98.5	5.17	4.37	17.8%	11.8%	7.1%	43.7%	39.8%	27.4%
2016	15	92.9	5.36	5.17	16.4%	11.8%	6.4%	40.6%	39.8%	29.0%
2015	33	97.8	4.59	3.42	15.3%	8.6%	6.5%	49.3%	28.7%	25.5%

Gallardo has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In 15 starts, he has a 5.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.4% and a walk rate of 11.8%. He is a fly ball pitcher that isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters. With a matchup against the Red Sox in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Gallardo is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

We always love targeting the Red Sox offense at home. Even though they are playing on the road tonight, they are still one of the best offenses in the slate. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they draw a favorable matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who has allowed a .341 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.52 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.97 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.353	0.147	0.310	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,700
2	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.335	0.121	0.194	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,900
3	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.364	0.209	0.422	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,600
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.425	0.338	0.255	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,400
5	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.372	0.262	0.245	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.332	0.186	0.224	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,900
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.317	0.119	0.305	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.326	0.123	0.466	C	$2,900	C	$3,800
9	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.418	0.091	0.381	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.360	0.177	0.311	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, yet they have the fifth highest implied team total on the board. That says a lot about how favorable their matchup is tonight against Eduardo Rodriguez. In the last two seasons, Rodriguez has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.299 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.154 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.5% (17 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.89 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.66 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.03 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.288	0.148	0.377	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.281	0.124	0.288	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.353	0.186	0.358	3B	$4,000	3B/SS	$5,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.334	0.253	0.230	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.339	0.215	0.255	OF	$2,700	1B/2B	$4,200
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.341	0.199	0.340	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.280	0.127	0.242	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.259	0.095	0.306	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300
9	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.297	0.117	0.173	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.163	0.285	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbp

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
LA Dodgers					Philadelphia
			Kenta Maeda					Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -160					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.292	8	33.9%	20.2%	SP vs. Left	0.324	11	30.1%	25.1%
SP vs. Right	0.264	7	25.0%	28.3%	SP vs. Right	0.320	8	30.1%	27.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kenta Maeda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		29.5	FPPG:		15.8
					Pitcher Rating:		76.2	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	93.8	3.84	4.67	20.0%	2.7%	8.7%	42.2%	39.8%	31.3%
2016	23	93.1	3.68	3.31	24.5%	6.5%	11.5%	43.2%	38.1%	29.2%

Maeda has pitched well in his first season in the majors, posting a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.5%. Surprisingly, he has actually pitched better on the road than he has at home. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked 17th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. I have him ranked as the seventh best pitching option available tonight, which makes him a nice value at his price point.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Vince Velasquez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		31.9	FPPG:		16.8
					Pitcher Rating:		57.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	99.2	4.76	5.65	21.8%	12.1%	9.1%	34.2%	39.2%	42.7%
2016	20	90.1	3.80	3.94	26.6%	9.1%	11.0%	35.5%	40.4%	31.5%

Velasquez comes into tonight’s game in bad form, posting a 5.65 ERA with a walk rate of 12.1% in his last five starts. While he can come out and have a big outing at any time, I’d like to see him string together a couple of quality starts before going back to the well. He is a large underdog tonight at home against a Dodgers’ offense that continues to climb the rankings in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. I see Velasquez as a deep GPP flier tonight.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. This isn’t the best matchup on the board, but Citizens Bank Park is a sneaky hitter’s park. The Dodgers have the eighth highest implied team total on the board, as they square off against Vince Velasquez. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .320+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.306	0.136	0.289	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.404	0.238	0.413	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,800
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.384	0.227	0.416	3B	$3,400	3B	$5,100
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.358	0.185	0.141	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
5	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.357	0.195	0.422	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,700
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.339	0.219	0.588	C	$3,200	C	$4,600
7	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.359	0.238	0.481	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
8	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.324	0.128	0.347	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,600
9	Kenta Maeda	RIGHT	0.173	0.125	0.386	P	$8,700	P	$9,500
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.188	0.387	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies come into tonight’s game with a below-average implied run total. They draw a difficult matchup against Kenta Maeda, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA this season. We have a full slate on tap tonight and there are better matchups to exploit than this one.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.76 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.82 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.90 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.302	0.090	0.335	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900
2	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.370	0.248	0.320	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.325	0.192	0.262	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.327	0.247	0.647	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,700
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.296	0.148	0.422	C	$3,000	C	$4,000
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.351	0.148	0.348	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,500
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.289	0.126	0.286	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,900
8	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.279	0.146	0.418	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.162	0.000	0.000	P	$8,200	P	$8,000
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.149	0.338	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Toronto					NY Yankees
			Marco Estrada					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -110					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.277	23	28.0%	19.5%	SP vs. Left	0.328	16	31.0%	25.0%
SP vs. Right	0.267	16	30.6%	21.2%	SP vs. Right	0.332	26	31.2%	24.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,700
					FPPG:		35.3	FPPG:		19.7
					Pitcher Rating:		54.0	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	4	102.3	4.22	3.00	20.8%	6.6%	11.5%	34.2%	41.1%	25.7%
2016	20	100.9	4.22	2.95	23.4%	8.9%	10.8%	34.3%	47.2%	32.0%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Estrada continues to be a top candidate for regression. His SIERA is a full run higher than his ERA this season. The good news is that he does boast an above-average strikeout rate of 23.4% on the season. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Yankees, although he has to face them in a hitter-friendly ballpark. My biggest concern here is the 23 home runs that Estrada has allowed to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. We know that Yankee Stadium favors left-handed power bats with that short porch in right field.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Pineda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		30.4	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		77.1	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	6	98.0	3.66	4.25	25.7%	7.9%	14.3%	47.0%	34.0%	40.0%
2016	23	97.3	3.42	5.07	26.8%	6.7%	14.0%	44.7%	33.4%	32.4%
2015	27	94.4	3.09	4.37	23.4%	3.1%	11.9%	48.2%	29.9%	30.1%

Pineda has the exact opposite issue as Marco Estrada. His SIERA is a full run and a half lower than his ERA, which suggests some positive regression moving forward. In 23 starts this season, he has a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.8%. He is generating an elite swinging strike rate of 26.8% and I’m higher on his fantasy appeal than most. Even in a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays, I see Pineda as a sneaky GPP play and potentially an SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays aren’t as good on the road as they are at home, but they are ranked ninth in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Even though we expect Michael Pineda numbers to improve the rest of the way, he has allowed a .328+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. I’m not going to have a lot of exposure to Toronto, but they are certainly in play tonight.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.81 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.369	0.195	0.377	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,600
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.395	0.268	0.332	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,600
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.391	0.285	0.386	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,700
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.338	0.191	0.230	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.319	0.175	0.355	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,400
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.315	0.177	0.342	C	$2,800	C	$3,400
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.328	0.226	0.228	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500
8	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.288	0.140	0.162	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
9	Darrell Ceciliani	LEFT	0.233	0.085	0.138	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.194	0.283	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have been awful offensively this season. As crazy as it sounds, their pitching has been what has kept them afloat. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Marco Estrada. While he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA, he has allowed 39 home runs over the last two seasons, 23 of which came from left-handed hitters.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.328	0.141	0.379	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.309	0.101	0.329	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
3	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.345	0.262	0.381	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.324	0.198	0.208	C	$2,900	C	$3,000
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.313	0.149	0.348	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,500
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.296	0.136	0.367	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,500
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.306	0.122	0.260	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,000
8	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.390	0.231	0.355	C	$2,600	C	$2,500
9	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.724	0.750	0.724	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.371	0.232	0.372	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Kansas City					Detroit
			Danny Duffy					Justin Verlander
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -135					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.241	1	26.5%	27.3%	SP vs. Left	0.270	16	22.7%	24.8%
SP vs. Right	0.319	28	32.7%	21.1%	SP vs. Right	0.287	16	27.0%	23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$12,700
					FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		13.2
					Pitcher Rating:		65.8	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	6	100.8	3.38	2.32	26.8%	4.9%	13.4%	33.6%	45.5%	40.0%
2016	17	106.6	3.18	2.82	28.1%	5.1%	13.8%	34.8%	44.7%	34.3%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Duffy is coming off of his first complete game of his career. He was dominate against the White Sox, holding them to a single run while striking out six batters. He draws a tough test tonight against the Tigers in Detroit, who will likely throw nine right-handed batters at him tonight. While that’s never ideal for a left-handed pitcher, I do like the fact that Duffy has a 32.7% strikeout rate against righties in the last two seasons. There is still plenty of upside for Duffy tonight, I’m just not sure I want to pay that hefty price tag for him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		39.7	FPPG:		21.9
					Pitcher Rating:		85.4	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	6	112.0	3.11	1.67	29.9%	6.0%	12.7%	35.6%	42.3%	21.0%
2016	24	107.4	3.59	3.42	26.3%	6.7%	11.8%	35.7%	45.0%	26.5%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander comes into tonight’s game in great form, posting a 3.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.9% and a walk rate of only 6%. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and he has been dominant at Comerica Park throughout his career. I’m a big fan of his matchup tonight against the Royals, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but the Royals average the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance. If Verlander is pitching well, there is a decent chance that he gets the complete game.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals come into tonight’s game with the second lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Justin Verlander and they have to face him on the road in a ballpark that he has been dominant in for years. Over the last two seasons, Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.126 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (11 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.76 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.311	0.135	0.370	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
2	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.324	0.157	0.362	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,000
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.311	0.116	0.180	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.362	0.170	0.263	1B	$3,000	1B	$2,700
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.349	0.211	0.333	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$2,500
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.326	0.194	0.252	C	$3,200	C	$2,600
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.326	0.157	0.272	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.270	0.062	0.241	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900
9	Raul Mondesi	SWITCH	0.200	0.083	0.153	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.143	0.270	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers may be favored tonight, but they still have the seventh lowest implied team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Danny Duffy, who continues to impress this season. With the over/under set at only 7.0 runs, this is an easy game to fade both offenses. However, Duffy has allowed 28 home runs to righties in the last two seasons if you want to look at the Tigers for one-offs in tournaments.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.328 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.8% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.84 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.71 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.368	0.188	0.376	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,900
2	Casey McGehee	RIGHT	0.334	0.054	0.318	3B	$2,300	1B/3B	$2,000
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.387	0.192	0.519	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.367	0.153	0.414	C	$3,400	1B	$3,100
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.394	0.280	0.449	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.263	0.123	0.213	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,200
7	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.269	0.078	0.316	2B	$2,200	OF	$2,000
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.381	0.265	0.357	C	$2,400	C	$2,500
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.326	0.056	0.392	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.343	0.154	0.373	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Chicago White Sox					Cleveland
			Jose Quintana					Corey Kluber
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.270	7	29.4%	21.5%	SP vs. Left	0.304	17	27.0%	24.9%
SP vs. Right	0.308	24	29.9%	21.1%	SP vs. Right	0.242	18	27.2%	28.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Quintana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		35.6	FPPG:		19.4
					Pitcher Rating:		55.4	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	105.6	4.07	1.59	20.6%	5.2%	6.4%	37.8%	42.9%	32.0%
2016	23	103.6	3.94	2.85	22.1%	5.8%	7.7%	39.1%	41.2%	32.9%
2015	32	105.4	3.62	3.36	20.5%	5.1%	9.2%	47.1%	29.7%	27.7%

Quintana’s 2.85 ERA may not hold up the rest of the way, but a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.1% is nothing to complain about. Unfortunately, he comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Indians, who have their ace (Corey Kluber) on the mound. The Indians may not be the best offensive team against left-handed pitching, but they are certainly capable of scoring a few runs against Quintana. There are better options at similar price points tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Corey Kluber
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$11,400
					FPPG:		39.4	FPPG:		22.5
					Pitcher Rating:		91.4	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	97.2	3.61	1.80	25.8%	6.8%	14.0%	39.8%	38.6%	26.1%
2016	23	98.0	3.46	3.21	25.2%	5.8%	12.2%	46.5%	33.5%	27.2%
2015	32	102.3	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Kluber has been sharp in his last five starts, posting a 1.80 ERA with a strikeout rate of 25.8% and a walk rate of 6.8%. He comes into tonight’s game as a huge favorite at home against the White Sox. Any way you slice it, this is a favorable matchup for Kluber. On the season, Chicago is ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 24th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The upside is there for Kluber and his price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, especially if you pair him with a cheaper SP2 on DK.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have the lowest projection of the 30 teams in action tonight. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA in the last two seasons. The White Sox can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.00 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.352	0.164	0.327	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
2	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.274	0.129	0.265	SS	$3,100	2B/SS	$3,100
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.325	0.133	0.246	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,800
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.369	0.208	0.440	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000
5	Justin Morneau	LEFT	0.348	0.159	0.358	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,800
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.325	0.218	0.289	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,000
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.277	0.112	0.286	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.258	0.096	0.222	C	$2,200	C	$2,200
9	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.264	0.099	0.302	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.146	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are large favorites tonight at home, but their matchup against Jose Quintana is less than ideal. He has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, although he has allowed 24 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. I hope the Indians give Corey Kluber some run support here, but I won’t be actively targeting any of their hitters.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.328 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.155 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.3% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.92 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.11 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.319	0.173	0.358	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,500
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.315	0.149	0.375	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,500
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.360	0.164	0.345	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,300
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.404	0.281	0.550	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,800
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.318	0.108	0.306	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,600
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.320	0.130	0.492	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,900
7	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.403	0.208	0.550	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,100
8	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.299	0.102	0.325	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.318	0.138	0.186	C	$2,000	C	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.161	0.387	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 16th

Stackability Rating System:

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbp

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli

Stackability – ORANGE

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