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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-28 19:57:46

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago White Sox NY Yankees
whitesoxmlb James Shields nyyankeesmlb Lance Lynn
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-240 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.356 31.0% 1.32 19.3% 37.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.360 39.3% 1.13 16.3% 54.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.352 35.3% 1.42 17.0% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.294 33.8% 0.78 27.7% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3% 90.0 10.2%
2018 27 4.85 4.59 18.1% 8.7% 35.3% 33.2% 15.8% 89.4 10.4%
L14 2 4.59 6.59 17.2% 5.2% 34.9% 31.8% 18.2% 90.0 9.0%

We have a massive 15-game on tap tonight, so let’s hop right into it. We start with one of my favorite stacks of the slate. Or rather, one of my favorite pitchers to stack against. I’ve used Shields a number of times this season, but it’s usually at home against a high-strikeout offense. Tonight he pitches on the road in the home run-friendly Yankee Stadium. I know the Yankees are playing a little short-handed right now, but their lineup is still loaded with firepower. In fact, their projected lineup for this game boasts an average xwOBA of .355 with a .211 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Shields in all formats.

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1% 91.8 9.0%
2018 24 4.44 4.84 23.0% 12.1% 50.3% 36.2% 20.0% 93.2 10.1%
L14 2 3.95 9.64 23.9% 8.7% 51.6% 41.9% 19.4% 93.1 8.1%

Lynn will garner some ownership as an SP2 tonight on DraftKings because we’ve been streaming pitchers against the White Sox with success for most of the season. Lynn’s numbers don’t jump off the page at us, but he does boast a 23% strikeout rate and a 50% ground ball rate. That’s a lethal combination, even in this hitter-friendly ballpark. I’m a little concerned about how many lefties the White Sox will have in their lineup tonight, but there is enough strikeout upside in this matchup to ease the concern. Chicago’s projected lineup has an average k-rate of 27% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn is viable as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

If you are looking for a low-owned offense with some upside, the White Sox are intriguing in large-field tournaments. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled against left-handed hitters. On the season, Lance Lynn has allowed a .360 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. With the short porch in right field, Daniel Palka, Omar Narvaez, and Yoan Moncada are viable GPP targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.308 0.164 28.5% 7.5% 18.9% 47.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.278 0.170 29.0% 5.5% 25.1% 46.7% SS $3,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.321 0.187 33.8% 3.2% 25.8% 46.4% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.326 0.263 38.8% 4.3% 34.5% 44.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,500
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.321 0.206 35.6% 10.9% 36.6% 39.7% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $4,200 3B $8,000
6 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.356 0.165 29.3% 10.7% 17.6% 39.0% C $2,800 C $3,800 C $7,500
7 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.332 0.196 38.0% 10.6% 34.6% 30.8% 2B $3,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
8 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.325 0.181 31.4% 8.6% 20.2% 43.8% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,300
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.263 0.118 27.8% 4.1% 28.0% 36.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.314 0.183 32.5% 7.3% 26.8% 41.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Palka (GPP), Omar Narvaez (GPP), Yoan Moncada (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top stacks of the slate and with 15 games on the schedule, we don’t have to worry about them becoming too chalky. They are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and they get to face James Shields, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of medium and hard contact. On the season, Shields has allowed a .356 xwOBA to lefties and a .352 xwOBA to righties. We can basically make a case for every hitter in this lineup, which means we can stack the Yankees a few different ways. Individually, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, and Neil Walker are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.295 0.141 25.5% 11.8% 14.8% 49.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 LF $8,100
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.329 0.217 37.5% 8.7% 31.9% 48.2% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $9,800
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.376 0.190 38.3% 15.9% 19.5% 44.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
4 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.360 0.224 37.1% 3.7% 16.7% 46.9% 3B $4,000 3B $4,700 3B $9,100
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.366 0.131 39.8% 10.6% 21.2% 35.6% 2B $2,800 1B/2B $3,500 2B $6,800
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.353 0.204 34.7% 8.0% 24.8% 32.6% SS $4,000 2B $4,100 2B $8,500
7 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.487 0.474 38.5% 13.6% 27.3% 23.1% 1B $2,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,300
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.326 0.184 36.8% 7.6% 22.8% 47.8% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,600
9 Shane Robinson RIGHT 0.305 0.138 20.7% 9.4% 0.0% 55.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 RF $5,500
Team Averages 0.355 0.211 34.3% 9.9% 19.9% 42.6%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Austin Romine (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto Baltimore
torontomlb Thomas Pannone baltimoremlb Josh Rogers
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.256 33.3% 0.00 36.4% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.124 0.223 26.1% 0.00 16.1% 40.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Thomas Pannone
thomas-pannone-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 1 4.10 1.59 21.4% 7.1% 40.7% 27.6% 24.1% 88.6 12.6%
L14 1 4.94 0.00 17.7% 8.8% 34.8% 29.2% 25.0% 88.6 13.1%

Pannone is a young southpaw that pitched well against the Orioles in his first career major league start. While it was an impressive outing, there are reasons to be concerned. His SIERA in that game was close to five, his BABIP was well under .100, and he was pitching at home in front of his fans. Not only is regression a possible issue, but he has to pitch on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I know the Orioles have been atrocious against southpaws this season, but Pannone looks like an obvious fade here, especially if he’s going to garner ownership as an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Pannone in both cash games and tournaments.

Josh Rogers
josh-rogers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%

Rogers is a 24-year old southpaw that is making his major league debut tonight against the Blue Jays. In 24 Triple-A starts this season (with two different teams), he posted an FIP over four with a strikeout rate below 17%. Those are not good minor-league numbers, so we shouldn’t expect much from him in his first career major league start. To make matters worse, he is facing a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ offense that feasts on left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rogers in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays forgot to show up last night and took a chunk out of my bankroll in the process. That’s the life of an MLB DFS player, especially this time of year. I won’t hesitate to go right back to the well, especially since they will come at much lower ownership tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Josh Rogers, who is a rookie southpaw with subpar numbers in the minors. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are viable, especially in tournaments. Lourdes Gurriel, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, Randal Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez all boast a .340+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.390 0.119 25.7% 4.5% 15.9% 45.7% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $4,200 2B $8,000
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.344 0.222 28.2% 1.2% 12.2% 45.1% 2B $2,400 2B $3,600 2B $7,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.296 0.133 22.4% 9.3% 23.0% 50.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.364 0.140 36.3% 7.8% 20.3% 47.3% 1B $4,200 1B $5,300 1B $9,700
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.350 0.178 30.1% 6.4% 26.4% 39.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 RF $9,100
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.291 0.156 35.9% 3.1% 14.0% 38.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
7 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.355 0.289 33.3% 7.2% 31.9% 36.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,400
8 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.921 0.500 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% C $2,600 C $3,900 C $7,700
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.324 0.221 28.2% 6.5% 16.1% 40.8% SS $3,200 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
Team Averages 0.404 0.218 37.8% 5.1% 23.3% 38.2%

Elite Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Devon Travis, Randal Grichuk

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

In my Grind Down video last night, I mentioned that I was off of Sam Gaviglio and that I liked a few of the Orioles’ hitters. That was one of the only good decisions that I made last night. If you are a premium member, be sure to check out that video each day, as I highlight any changes in opinion that I’ve had throughout the day. The Orioles draw an intriguing matchup tonight against Thomas Pannone, who had one of the lowest ground ball rates (22%) I’ve ever seen in the minors. This ballpark favors right-handed power, so there are a few intriguing tournament plays from the Orioles, even though they don’t have much to speak of in the talent department.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.215 0.000 0.0% 11.1% 38.9% 28.6% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 CF $9,300
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.331 0.218 47.2% 4.8% 30.1% 51.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
3 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.283 0.093 23.5% 7.8% 24.7% 68.6% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.322 0.100 31.3% 2.8% 9.0% 39.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.277 0.168 39.1% 8.3% 37.5% 42.2% 1B $2,300 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.281 0.145 30.8% 10.6% 28.2% 45.1% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.271 0.063 20.6% 7.4% 27.8% 32.4% 3B $2,500 3B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
8 John Andreoli RIGHT 0.113 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.274 0.068 17.9% 5.1% 21.5% 39.3% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.263 0.095 23.4% 6.4% 28.4% 38.6%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar (GPP), Adam Jones (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (Cash), Adam Jones (FD), Trey Mancini, Tim Beckham

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Philadelphia
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-105 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.253 27.0% 0.87 31.5% 36.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.276 25.0% 0.45 25.3% 49.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 0.266 33.9% 0.91 38.0% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.255 23.9% 0.40 25.8% 50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5% 94.1 15.5%
2018 27 2.74 2.13 34.6% 6.4% 36.0% 30.1% 24.5% 94.4 16.2%
L14 2 3.19 1.38 34.7% 10.2% 30.8% 18.5% 29.6% 94.8 11.7%

Scherzer struck out ten batters the last time he faced the Phillies, although he was out-pitched by Aaron Nola in that start. He gets a crack at revenge tonight, as the two teams square off again in Philadelphia. Scherzer is having another elite season for the Nationals, posting a 2.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a soft contact rate of 25%. There are plenty of strikeouts to be had in this Phillies’ lineup and Scherzer has an amazing track record against this team in his career. If we take salaries out of the equation, Scherzer is the number one pitching option of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6% 92.0 10.8%
2018 26 3.51 2.13 25.6% 6.8% 50.0% 24.4% 22.2% 92.4 12.1%
L14 2 2.26 0.60 35.7% 3.6% 41.9% 21.2% 15.2% 92.6 19.1%

Nola has an amazing skill set. He has an above-average strikeout rate (26%), an above-average ground ball rate (50%), and an ability to limit hard contact (24%). With these numbers, he can pitch well in any ballpark and in any matchup. While Max Scherzer technically has the better matchup of the two, Nola threw a gem against the Nationals in their last meeting. While his price point on DraftKings is appealing, it’s always hard to dominate the same opponent two starts in a row.

Quick Breakdown: Nola isn’t a bad play by any means, he’s just not going to make the final cut on my builds.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

This is not the game that we want to load up on when it comes to hitters. Even though it’s being played in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park, the total for the game is set at only 7.0 runs. This shows how much respect the betting markets have for these two pitchers. In addition to having high ground ball and strikeout rates, Aaron Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 25% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.370 0.128 38.0% 9.1% 15.9% 44.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.314 0.137 30.2% 8.0% 19.7% 52.0% SS $3,700 SS $4,100 IF/OF $8,500
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.396 0.280 43.0% 16.9% 24.7% 36.2% OF $4,400 OF $4,800 RF $9,100
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.381 0.190 37.0% 8.2% 13.7% 36.4% 3B $3,600 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.374 0.205 34.7% 18.5% 18.5% 51.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.385 0.221 41.6% 5.7% 20.4% 47.8% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,600
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.302 0.129 32.5% 7.6% 12.7% 38.5% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,600
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.293 0.135 22.0% 7.4% 16.9% 41.0% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,600
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.237 0.048 18.0% 0.0% 14.6% 67.6% P $12,000 P $12,600 P $24,600
Team Averages 0.339 0.164 33.0% 9.0% 17.5% 46.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies are even worse off than the Nationals, although fading both looks like the best route to take in this slate. Max Scherzer is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. I make an effort to avoid hitters against elite pitchers, especially in big slates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.317 0.122 23.5% 14.3% 21.5% 41.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.373 0.269 36.8% 11.3% 24.9% 29.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.378 0.209 32.3% 7.9% 22.2% 42.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
4 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.358 0.233 42.7% 7.0% 21.8% 39.7% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,600
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.368 0.182 35.3% 18.5% 16.3% 39.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.331 0.227 27.1% 5.5% 14.4% 51.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,400 3B $6,400
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.308 0.189 26.1% 7.6% 19.8% 40.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.281 0.128 37.2% 3.9% 38.6% 49.6% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,500
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.103 0.026 4.8% 2.2% 51.1% 66.7% P $11,200 P $10,600 P $20,700
Team Averages 0.313 0.176 29.5% 8.7% 25.6% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Miami Boston
miamimlb Jose Urena bostonmlb Brian Johnson
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-260 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.353 42.5% 1.41 16.4% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.264 25.8% 0.82 23.1% 37.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.294 36.7% 0.53 21.5% 54.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.356 33.3% 1.48 20.2% 38.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.4% 95.5 8.2%
2018 25 4.18 4.50 18.9% 6.8% 52.1% 39.9% 15.7% 95.7 8.5%
L14 2 4.64 1.00 12.9% 6.5% 56.5% 12.5% 25.0% 97.3 7.3%

Urena has a lot working against him tonight. We’ll start with his talent — he’s a mediocre pitcher with mediocre numbers. He sees a negative ballpark shift playing in Boston and since this is an American League ballpark, he will have to face a designated hitter instead of the opposing pitcher. Add in a matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .386 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching, and we have ourselves an auto-fade.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Urena in all formats.

Brian Johnson
brian-johnson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.89 4.33 17.4% 6.6% 35.9% 35.9% 26.1% 87.3 7.8%
2018 10 4.21 4.12 21.0% 7.8% 38.5% 31.5% 19.3% 88.5 8.6%
L14 2 5.50 5.40 11.6% 7.0% 41.2% 29.4% 11.8% 88.7 5.1%

Johnson isn’t a flashy pitcher by any means and he certainly doesn’t fit the mold of being a sexy play in DFS. In his ten starts this season, he owns a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He doesn’t have bad numbers, but they don’t jump off the page at us. While his upside is somewhat limited, I like his chances to pay off his salary tonight. He comes into the game as a large favorite against the Marlins, who have struggled against left-handed pitching all season.

Quick Breakdown: While Johnson isn’t my favorite SP2 of the slate, he’s on my radar.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

I have been avoiding the Marlins’ offense for most of the season, but they actually have a lot working for them tonight. They see a massive ballpark boost playing in Boston, they get to use the DH in this series, and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled against right-handed hitters. On the season, Brian Johnson has allowed a .356 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate. With little to no projected ownership, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro, and Austin Dean all stand out as intriguing tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.304 0.077 10.0% 13.3% 20.0% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 LF $7,700
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.357 0.191 39.4% 5.8% 22.3% 38.0% C $3,300 C $4,800 C $8,800
3 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.394 0.147 44.7% 14.4% 17.0% 46.6% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,500
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.333 0.106 41.8% 10.8% 18.7% 55.1% 2B $2,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,200
5 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.355 0.200 25.0% 9.1% 18.2% 25.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
6 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.327 0.090 25.6% 8.1% 9.9% 32.6% SS $2,000 3B/SS $3,700 SS $7,500
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.305 0.148 31.1% 1.8% 19.3% 45.5% SS $2,100 SS $3,800 SS $7,400
8 Isaac Galloway RIGHT 0.476 0.400 28.6% 23.1% 23.1% 14.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,800
9 Bryan Holaday RIGHT 0.232 0.108 25.0% 2.6% 15.4% 41.9% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.343 0.163 30.1% 9.9% 18.2% 37.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (DK), Brian Anderson (GPP), Starlin Castro (GPP), Austin Dean (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the board, but I don’t expect them to be as chalky as the Dodgers or Yankees. Everyone is going to see the numbers for Jose Urena against right-handed hitters (.294 xwOBA allowed on a 55% ground ball rate) and be hesitant to spend up on the Red Sox righties. I see this as an opportunity to load up on a pitcher that will be outside of his comfort zone. Not only is he facing one of the best offenses in baseball, but he’s doing it on the road in a hitter-friendly American League ballpark. I absolutely love this Red Sox stack, as each of the first five batters in their lineup has a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season — Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.442 0.268 44.1% 10.7% 14.6% 33.8% OF $4,900 OF $5,800 RF $10,100
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.402 0.198 29.9% 12.9% 14.1% 37.8% OF $3,900 OF $5,300 LF $9,500
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.420 0.231 36.8% 10.1% 19.8% 41.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,500 1B $9,400
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.459 0.352 46.6% 11.0% 22.6% 44.7% OF $5,000 OF $5,900 RF $11,100
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.383 0.266 37.6% 7.0% 16.5% 47.5% SS $3,700 SS $5,000 SS $10,000
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.334 0.187 32.3% 8.5% 10.8% 37.8% 2B $2,600 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.338 0.111 29.4% 8.9% 14.2% 50.5% 3B $2,300 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,300
8 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.316 0.098 34.8% 7.1% 23.2% 43.5% C $2,100 C/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,600
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.377 0.193 41.4% 9.6% 22.7% 40.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.386 0.212 37.0% 9.5% 17.6% 41.9%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez (GPP), Xander Bogaerts (GPP)

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez (Cash), Xander Bogaerts (Cash), Ian Kinsler, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Cincinnati
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra cincinnatimlb Anthony DeSclafani
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-110 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.345 38.9% 1.49 21.5% 40.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.361 38.9% 2.59 19.2% 33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.320 37.7% 0.84 21.9% 44.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.273 44.1% 1.16 22.6% 48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 14 5.23 5.12 21.3% 13.7% 33.5% 33.5% 18.5% 91.9 10.9%
2018 24 4.35 3.72 21.7% 9.1% 42.4% 38.3% 16.4% 93.2 10.2%
L14 2 3.76 8.00 16.7% 4.2% 56.8% 15.8% 15.8% 93.1 12.7%

Guerra is not a pitcher that I trust on the road (and to be honest, rarely at home). He has average ten fantasy points per start on the road this season. While that’s a concern, the bigger issue is this ballpark. Guerra is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and tonight he has to face the Reds in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. The Reds not only have a left-handed heavy lineup, but six of their projected starters have a 34%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than upside for Guerra in this matchup.

Anthony DeSclafani
anthony-desclafani-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 14 4.12 4.26 20.8% 6.0% 40.4% 41.3% 15.7% 93.3 8.4%
L14 2 3.86 3.29 17.5% 3.5% 51.2% 31.1% 15.6% 93.6 9.1%

DeSclafani is one of the easiest pitchers to break down. When he’s facing a right-handed heavy offense, we can use him as a value play. If not, he becomes an easy fade in all formats. On the season, he has allowed a .361 xwOBA, a 39% hard contact rate, and a 2.59 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. The Brewers are projected to have four lefties in their lineup tonight and every single one of them has an ISO over .220 against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: This game has a much better chance of shooting out than it does of turning into a pitcher’s duel.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

I basically already spoiled my plan when it comes to the Brewers’ offense, but I’ll rehash it here. Anthony DeSclafani is really good against righties (.273 xwOBA allowed on a 49% ground ball rate) and really bad against lefties (.361 xwOBA allowed with a 2.59 HR/9). The four lefties projected to start tonight for Milwaukee all own a .355+ xwoBA and a .220+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season. This list includes Christian Yelich (who is always on my radar against a fly-ball pitcher), Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Thames.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.398 0.227 48.1% 9.6% 24.5% 52.7% OF $4,000 OF $5,700 CF $10,500
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.329 0.093 35.7% 11.8% 17.4% 61.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 CF $8,900
3 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.396 0.287 41.3% 12.5% 16.7% 33.6% 2B $3,900 2B/3B $4,600 3B $9,000
4 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.387 0.280 46.1% 9.8% 27.1% 31.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,600 1B $9,100
5 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.368 0.241 44.7% 9.4% 16.6% 30.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,400 3B $8,300
6 Eric Thames LEFT 0.355 0.283 50.8% 9.9% 34.2% 30.3% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.327 0.147 34.8% 5.8% 18.8% 38.4% C $2,600 C $3,900 C $7,700
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.236 0.071 27.0% 3.7% 28.8% 54.8% SS $2,100 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.098 0.091 12.5% 0.0% 33.3% 57.1% P $7,000 P $5,900 P $11,900
Team Averages 0.322 0.191 37.9% 8.1% 24.2% 43.4%

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (Cash), Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds should fly under the radar tonight. They are missing their best hitter and as a whole, this lineup doesn’t look too intimidating. With that said, they are playing at home in a home run-friendly ballpark and they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. We shouldn’t just dismiss this offense as a whole. On the season, Junior Guerra has allowed a .345 xwOBA to lefties and a .320 xwOBA to righties. While a full stack is out of the question, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, and Scott Schebler are all great one-off targets for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.247 0.067 18.7% 8.7% 23.4% 42.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,400
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.290 0.107 30.1% 5.8% 12.3% 36.0% SS $2,900 SS $4,300 SS $8,300
3 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.337 0.175 38.6% 7.2% 18.8% 40.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,800 2B $8,800
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.372 0.242 47.3% 8.7% 23.2% 37.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,800 3B $9,000
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.356 0.215 41.0% 9.0% 23.9% 51.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
6 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.323 0.136 34.2% 6.0% 23.3% 35.4% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.332 0.121 40.5% 9.9% 15.4% 41.2% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,900
8 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.316 0.197 34.0% 10.0% 21.4% 35.6% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800
9 Anthony DeSclafani RIGHT 0.159 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 65.4% 50.0% P $7,200 P $6,900 P $14,000
Team Averages 0.304 0.140 32.8% 7.3% 25.2% 41.1%

Elite Plays – Scooter Gennett (GPP), Eugenio Suarez (GPP), Scott Schebler (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett (Cash), Eugenio Suarez (Cash), Scott Schebler (Cash), Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious