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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-24 02:19:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City NY Yankees
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy nyyankeesmlb Jordan Montgomery
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-142 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.218 0.222 26.0% 5.2% 31.8% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.398 0.331 20.0% 8.7% 21.7% 46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.326 36.2% 6.5% 22.6% 36.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.302 23.5% 11.0% 21.9% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.53 3.51 25.7% 5.8% 36.4% 36.6% 17.8%
2017 9 4.48 2.97 19.1% 8.1% 40.6% 29.0% 14.8%

Duffy’s numbers are down across the board this season. His command hasn’t been nearly as sharp and his velocity is down, which has led to a higher SIERA and a lower strikeout rate. The good news is that his swinging strike rate is still above 12% and that he is coming off of his best start of the season, which just so happened to be against this same Yankees’ team. While that’s encouraging, this game will take place in Yankee Stadium rather than the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. I always hesitate to roster pitchers that face the same offense in back-to-back starts, especially when he sees a negative ballpark shift in the second game.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy is worth keeping an eye on moving forward, but he is a very risky GPP play tonight against the Yankees.

Jordan Montgomery
jordan-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.53 4.81 21.9% 10.7% 38.4% 23.0% 14.2%

Montgomery will be everyone’s favorite value play tonight, despite posting a subpar 4.53 SIERA in his first seven starts. His command hasn’t been great, but he is a hard-throwing lefty with an above-average strikeout rate. Basically, that’s all I need to hear to be interested in a pitcher that is facing the Royals, who are ranked 29th in team wOBA against southpaws this season. Montgomery is the 21st most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and the 17th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Speaking of FantasyDraft, they have rake free head-to-head games, which is basically unheard of in DFS. Make sure to check out their site and sign up through our links if you haven’t already. As for Montgomery, he is too cheap given his matchup and his stirkeout potential.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is an elite play in all formats, especially as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals’ offense will get overlooked tonight and they make for an interesting leverage play off of Jordan Montgomery, who projects to be one of the highest owned pitchers in the slate. Kansas City scored five runs in five innings against Montgomery last week and now see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium. I’m not saying to load up on Royals’ hitters in cash games, but the right-handed bats of Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez are intriguing one-off targets if you are fading Montgomery.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.250 0.263 0.091 26.7% 4.2% 13.1% 51.8% SS $2,100 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.272 0.292 0.200 33.3% 1.6% 19.7% 47.9% 3B $3,500 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.347 0.357 0.170 30.5% 11.6% 12.3% 40.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.295 0.309 0.147 28.6% 6.1% 18.9% 61.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.300 0.290 0.204 32.7% 5.7% 21.1% 30.7% C $3,300 C $3,800 C $7,600
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.274 0.386 0.107 31.6% 9.7% 29.0% 36.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.388 0.341 0.132 44.1% 8.5% 19.7% 45.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.280 0.311 0.110 31.2% 10.4% 26.9% 45.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
9 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.322 0.247 0.146 31.4% 4.4% 19.0% 47.1% 3B $2,200 3B $3,200 3B $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees couldn’t figure out Danny Duffy in their last meeting, but I’m not shying away from their hitters in this rematch. This is a much better ballpark for offensive production and we know Danny Duffy has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .326 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. His strikeout rate dips 9% and his ground ball rate dips 6% against righties as well. Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, and Aaron Judge are all elite plays at their respective positions and a full Yankees’ stack is viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.279 0.267 0.085 24.7% 6.3% 17.3% 44.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.350 0.418 0.303 42.2% 16.3% 27.5% 40.0% C $3,600 C $4,700 C $9,300
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.357 0.370 0.274 43.6% 10.2% 18.6% 45.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.328 0.325 0.158 31.5% 6.0% 18.5% 46.9% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.364 0.367 0.256 39.1% 18.5% 37.0% 34.8% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.284 0.309 0.085 28.0% 7.3% 15.9% 45.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.360 0.295 0.135 22.2% 3.7% 9.1% 37.9% SS $3,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.261 0.295 0.148 35.8% 8.2% 19.9% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.343 0.370 0.280 36.9% 11.5% 28.8% 37.8% 1B $2,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,200

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Seattle Washington
seattlemlb Christian Bergman washingtonmlb Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.353 45.2% 8.1% 24.2% 40.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.370 0.355 33.7% 8.7% 18.3% 37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.368 0.337 36.8% 4.2% 15.8% 38.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.292 26.8% 4.2% 23.0% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Christian Bergman
christian-bergman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.03 8.39 18.5% 5.0% 37.1% 42.9% 14.3%
2017 2 4.19 2.25 19.1% 6.4% 44.2% 32.6% 19.6%

Bergman has pitched well in his first two starts of the season, but isn’t getting any love from the oddsmakers in tonight’s matchup against the Nationals. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog with the over/under set at 9.0 runs. The sample size is small, but Bergman has allowed a 45% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in his last three starts. There seems to be more risk than potential reward in a matchup against the likes of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bergman in all formats.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 3 4.15 7.47 20.0% 5.7% 36.7% 34.6% 17.3%

Ross will be making his fourth start of the season tonight. He hasn’t been nearly as bad as his 7.47 ERA would lead you to believe, as his ERA is inflated thanks to a 25% HR/FB rate. Basically, one fourth of the fly balls that he has allowed have gone for home runs, which is an unsustainable number. He is an intriguing value play tonight against the Mariners, who really only have two left-handed batters in their lineup that he needs to worry about. Ross has been very tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, which should help when he’s facing Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz. Ross is a sizable favorite, he is pitching at home, and it sounds like he’s worked out some of his kinks after being sent back down to the minors.

Quick Breakdown: Ross is a very intriguing value play tonight in tournaments. He is dirt cheap across the industry.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are playing on the road in a tough ballparks for hitters. They are also facing Joe Ross, who has held right-handed batters to a .292 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. If you are targeting any Seattle hitters here, make sure they bat from the left side of the plate. Kyle Seager is a player that I have more exposure to than the field on most nights. He has elite numbers against right-handed pitching in basically every statistical category that you want to look at (xwOBA, ISO, HC%, BB%, K%, and GB%). He makes an excellent one-off target for cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.384 0.334 0.184 29.5% 4.8% 13.0% 53.3% SS $3,700 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.337 0.330 0.128 30.4% 13.1% 26.2% 29.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
3 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.371 0.381 0.234 34.9% 8.9% 23.5% 43.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.372 0.401 0.214 40.7% 12.1% 14.6% 34.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.284 0.310 0.181 35.1% 10.2% 23.4% 34.2% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000
6 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.303 0.270 0.055 13.0% 8.7% 14.3% 52.8% OF $2,700 OF $2,600 LF $5,200
7 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.290 0.321 0.072 27.4% 10.5% 17.3% 45.5% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $5,100
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.303 0.274 0.108 16.4% 8.1% 12.3% 52.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
9 Christian Bergman RIGHT 0.293 0.096 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $6,300 P $4,900 P $9,600

Elite Plays – Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The over/under for this game is a little higher than I expected it to be. I figured it had something to do with the wind or the temperature, but that’s not the case. The wind is blowing in from right field and it is expected to be in the high 60s at first pitch. Vegas clearly doesn’t trust the pitchers in this one, especially Christian Bergman. This makes me like the Nationals’ offense a bit more, as they quietly have the sixth highest implied run total in the slate. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy are all elite plays at their respective positions and you can fill in the pieces around them to complete a Nationals’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.379 0.338 0.237 33.1% 4.5% 19.5% 43.7% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.309 0.320 0.143 32.0% 11.3% 24.0% 43.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.379 0.395 0.235 35.7% 18.6% 15.7% 39.3% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.322 0.336 0.191 35.7% 5.6% 23.1% 45.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.414 0.400 0.256 39.4% 6.8% 9.3% 35.6% 2B $3,900 2B $4,800 2B $9,300
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.337 0.344 0.177 35.0% 9.4% 18.5% 38.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.312 0.321 0.167 33.1% 6.9% 18.0% 36.4% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.272 0.264 0.139 31.5% 5.6% 32.3% 43.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.186 0.170 0.030 15.8% 2.9% 41.2% 73.7% P $6,000 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Minnesota Baltimore
minnesotamlb Ervin Santana baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-123 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.300 27.5% 7.5% 18.1% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.323 31.1% 7.8% 17.6% 34.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.313 29.5% 8.4% 21.4% 37.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.318 28.3% 8.7% 23.1% 34.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 9 4.87 2.07 19.1% 10.8% 42.0% 25.5% 24.2%

Wouldn’t you know it, the first time all season that I used Santana was the first start he was shelled. I’ve been calling for regression from Santana all year and then it came right when I hopped on board. Granted, it was a short slate and I didn’t have many other options, but it’s funny how things work out sometimes. Santana’s 2.07 ERA for the year still looks great, but again, a .143 BABIP and a 91% left on-base percentage are unsustainable. I hate to say it, but the best pitchers in the history of baseball didn’t have that good of luck for long periods of time.

Quick Breakdown: Santana’s peripherals do not match his ERA. Sell, sell, sell.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 9 4.79 2.97 17.1% 7.0% 30.8% 33.1% 24.4%

Bundy also has a major gap between his ERA and his SIERA thanks to a low BABIP and a low LOB%. We could also see some regression coming his way, but the real concern is his dip in strikeouts. His strikeout rate is down nearly 5% from where it was a year ago and given the fact that it is accompanied by a decline in velocity and in his swinging strike rate, there is real cause for concern. Bundy is allowing more hard contact this season and has to face a Twins’ offense that is ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Bundy is cheap and is favored, he can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments. His numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins were one of my favorite sneaky stacks last night, but unfortunately, I didn’t end up with very much exposure to them in tournaments. I’ve made a note to stack the opposing offense against Ubaldo Jimenez every time he takes the mound from here on out. Minnesota doesn’t have quite as favorable of a matchup tonight, but Dylan Bundy strikeout rate is down and his hard contact rate is up this season. The Twins get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they will be low owned once again. Brian Dozier and Max Kepler are solid plays in all formats and I don’t mind the one through five Twins’ stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.350 0.325 0.239 32.6% 9.1% 19.5% 38.6% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.341 0.391 0.134 33.6% 14.1% 14.3% 47.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.355 0.349 0.236 42.8% 12.2% 36.7% 33.3% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.349 0.323 0.216 35.4% 10.8% 18.4% 42.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.327 0.304 0.258 32.0% 11.1% 32.2% 33.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.311 0.283 0.184 32.6% 3.3% 23.8% 44.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.313 0.302 0.116 24.3% 7.7% 12.6% 35.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.323 0.190 36.1% 13.2% 31.8% 42.6% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.234 0.171 23.3% 6.5% 36.6% 35.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles scored seven runs last night and still managed to lose by seven runs. It will be interesting to see what their ownership looks like tonight. I’m guessing nobody will want to stack against a pitcher that has a 2.07 ERA and that has held both left and right-handed under a .315 xwOBA in the last two seasons. My first inclination is that I don’t want a ton of exposure to Baltimore, but they have a high implied run total, they hit a ton of home runs, and they should be low owned in tournaments. I’m starting to come around on the Orioles’ stack tonight, especially after Ervin Santana was knocked around in his last start.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.344 0.376 0.176 33.8% 11.2% 20.4% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.343 0.342 0.192 32.7% 5.6% 16.0% 43.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.348 0.359 0.241 34.9% 7.0% 18.8% 37.8% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.351 0.359 0.265 43.1% 14.1% 34.5% 36.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.374 0.381 0.267 37.9% 7.3% 23.8% 40.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.319 0.302 0.142 34.4% 6.4% 26.7% 39.4% C $3,400 C $4,000 C $7,800
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.334 0.320 0.197 29.5% 3.0% 19.3% 42.0% 2B $3,000 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
8 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.413 0.392 0.346 41.7% 5.1% 30.5% 44.4% 1B $3,100 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.278 0.286 0.108 29.9% 4.7% 16.8% 42.9% SS $2,100 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Chicago Cubs
sanfranciscomlb Johnny Cueto cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-165 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.314 31.4% 5.4% 22.9% 47.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.231 0.263 27.4% 4.4% 26.3% 55.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.285 26.8% 5.5% 21.5% 48.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.282 26.0% 7.9% 24.1% 46.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto
johnny-cueto-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,400 Salary: $20,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 2.79 22.5% 5.1% 50.2% 27.2% 19.4%
2017 9 4.03 4.50 21.2% 6.5% 39.2% 35.8% 14.2%

Cueto’s numbers are down a bit this season. His SIERA is up, while his strikeout rate and ground ball rate are both down. The biggest red flag is his 36% hard contact rate, which is an anomaly in his career. He has always been a pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact, so we should keep an eye on that moving forward. While the wind is finally blowing in at Wrigley Field, this isn’t the slate to target Cueto. There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I’d have some interest if this game was played in San Francisco, but Cueto is an easy fade on the road against the Cubs.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 9 3.83 3.57 23.9% 9.3% 54.4% 24.7% 21.3%

Lester is having another remarkable season. In nine starts, he has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 54%. He has walked a few more batters this season, but he’s actually been better at holding runners, which is a big boost to his fantasy appeal. Lester has always been a pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact and the Giants’ offense is one that lacks serious power. San Francisco is currently ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is an elite play in all formats tonight, but I prefer Clayton Kershaw if you can find the extra cap space.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate tonight. They are playing on the road and they draw a tough matchup against Jon Lester, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Buster Posey is a viable one-off target, but Gary Sanchez is a better play at a similar price point.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.303 0.288 0.155 29.3% 4.8% 11.5% 48.9% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,600 3B $7,200
2 Justin Ruggiano RIGHT 0.407 0.340 0.250 38.9% 9.7% 32.3% 27.8% OF $2,300 OF $2,300 RF $4,400
3 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.305 0.315 0.105 21.4% 2.6% 25.6% 57.1% 3B $2,400 3B/SS $2,900 3B $5,600
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.402 0.397 0.197 36.8% 13.9% 10.2% 41.1% C $3,600 1B/C $3,900 C $7,800
5 Michael Morse RIGHT 0.177 0.223 0.083 42.9% 0.0% 41.7% 28.6% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $2,200 IF/OF $4,200
6 Mac Williamson RIGHT 0.308 0.296 0.200 32.6% 7.7% 30.8% 63.0% OF $2,500 OF $2,700 RF $5,400
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.261 0.287 0.064 22.5% 7.2% 14.0% 50.0% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 2B $5,200
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.277 0.299 0.115 35.9% 9.3% 16.3% 36.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,300 CF $4,400
9 Johnny Cueto RIGHT 0.116 0.114 0.000 7.1% 0.0% 33.3% 76.2% P $9,300 P $10,400 P $20,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are favored tonight, but we don’t need to go overboard here. They still have a low implied run total and we have a 15 game slate on tap. We can afford to be picky and that includes taking a stand against hitters in difficult matchups. Even though Johnny Cueto has struggled with hard contact this season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA in the last two years. Cueto also has a nice track record against the current roster of the Cubs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.354 0.362 0.174 33.6% 15.4% 11.9% 46.7% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
2 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.289 0.368 0.169 37.2% 12.5% 26.4% 45.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.380 0.349 0.236 37.2% 9.9% 22.5% 31.1% 3B $4,200 3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.390 0.377 0.255 37.0% 12.1% 16.5% 36.9% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.496 0.393 0.391 46.7% 17.9% 28.6% 46.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.300 0.314 0.109 27.3% 9.0% 13.6% 46.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.340 0.315 0.199 32.4% 9.5% 27.7% 53.6% C $3,100 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.297 0.296 0.149 27.1% 7.5% 21.7% 42.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.140 0.234 0.050 26.5% 5.6% 26.4% 63.4% P $10,300 P $11,100 P $21,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Philadelphia
coloradomlb German Marquez philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.262 22.2% 7.3% 19.1% 55.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.357 37.8% 6.0% 10.1% 40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.330 36.1% 7.1% 16.1% 44.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.317 30.8% 4.8% 12.9% 38.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.97 5.23 15.3% 6.1% 54.9% 29.7% 13.5%
2017 5 4.37 4.34 19.4% 8.1% 45.6% 28.9% 14.4%

Marquez may gain some traction tonight, after Jeff Hoffman pitched well against the Phillies last night. Marquez hasn’t been bad this season, posting a 4.37 SIERA with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. He has an above-average ground ball rate and has done a nice job of limiting hard contact. He carries some tournament appeal against a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 20th in team wOBA and 21st in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t a great ballpark, but Marquez carries some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 5.41 5.54 11.4% 6.3% 36.2% 33.2% 17.5%
2017 6 4.88 4.25 11.6% 3.9% 45.5% 36.5% 15.1%

Eflin can automatically be crossed off your list of potential pitching targets every time you see his name in a slate. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. In DFS, strikeouts are worth more than anything else for a pitcher, so mistakes are magnified when a pitcher has a low strikeout rate like Eflin. It doesn’t really matter who his opponent is, a 12% strikeout rate isn’t going to get the job done in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eflin in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are one of my favorite stacks in the slate. They are playing on the road (which guarantees ninth inning at bats), they are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark, and they draw a favorable matchup against Zach Eflin. In addition to the low strikeout rate, Eflin has allowed a .357 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez (who has been heating up in the last ten games) are both elite plays in the outfield. You can complete the Rockies’ stack with the two through four batters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.406 0.373 0.276 38.8% 7.0% 17.3% 30.7% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 CF $10,400
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.371 0.374 0.123 33.0% 9.5% 12.5% 53.1% 2B $3,100 2B $4,600 2B $9,000
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.376 0.344 0.267 36.9% 7.9% 14.3% 36.0% 3B $4,100 3B $5,100 3B $10,000
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.394 0.332 0.228 30.9% 9.6% 24.5% 40.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.353 0.343 0.188 35.4% 10.1% 18.3% 43.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.322 0.305 0.156 30.0% 6.1% 25.5% 55.4% OF $3,400 1B/OF $4,300 LF $8,400
7 Pat Valaika RIGHT 0.339 0.193 0.302 40.0% 0.0% 31.8% 44.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.332 0.288 0.137 23.1% 10.1% 21.8% 41.5% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.110 0.166 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 20.0% 60.0% P $8,500 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies are an offense that I would give more consideration to in a smaller slate. However, with 15 games on the schedule, they aren’t going to make the final cut when I’m making my lineups. I will note that German Marquez has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his first eight major league starts, allowing a .330 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.340 0.309 0.110 25.2% 11.3% 18.6% 53.5% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.306 0.275 0.178 27.8% 5.1% 21.3% 40.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.305 0.297 0.147 31.3% 9.8% 30.8% 50.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.326 0.210 37.5% 5.5% 22.6% 40.7% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.334 0.307 0.148 28.8% 8.8% 20.7% 43.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.296 0.323 0.153 29.0% 6.6% 15.9% 44.7% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.325 0.192 37.8% 10.2% 26.8% 38.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.302 0.318 0.170 32.4% 6.6% 28.0% 47.1% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.155 0.155 0.040 42.9% 0.0% 46.2% 69.2% P $6,600 P $4,700 P $9,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious