Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-30 00:49:36

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
whitesoxmlb Lucas Giolito clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-280 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.396 0.441 32.0% 20.9% 10.4% 34.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.351 31.3% 9.4% 18.8% 47.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.355 28.2% 10.9% 12.6% 45.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.301 31.0% 7.0% 22.5% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lucas Giolito
lucas-giolito-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.49 2.38 19.0% 6.7% 45.0% 35.4% 19.2%
2018 10 6.60 7.53 11.5% 15.8% 40.3% 30.0% 13.8%
L14 2 6.89 11.05 7.5% 12.5% 35.7% 27.6% 3.5%

We have a single early game on the schedule today. It is featured in the single-game slates, as well as the all-day slate on FanDuel. Giolito has not fared well this season, posting a 6.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 12% and a walk rate of 16%. The Indians have the highest implied run total of any team on the board, which makes Giolito an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Even in the single-game slates, Giolito should be avoided.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6%
2018 10 4.14 3.32 20.9% 8.1% 47.2% 31.2% 15.9%
L14 2 5.00 6.17 19.6% 13.7% 45.5% 42.4% 12.1%

Clevinger has some appeal here, especially in the single-game slates. We’ve seen a dip in his strikeout rate, but his control has improved and he is generating more ground balls. Essentially, he’s now capable of pitching deep into games, which was always a problem before this season. He draws an exploitable matchup against the White Sox, who have struggled as a whole against right-handed pitching this season. The fact that the Indians are the largest favorites on the board helps, as Clevinger will have a good opportunity to pick up the win.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is an elite play in the single-game slates and a borderline elite play in the all-day slate on FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Mike Clevinger has held right-handed hitters to a .301 xwOBA with a 23% strikeout rate and a 47% ground ball rate this season, which takes Jose Abreu out of consideration. This ballpark does benefit left-handed power if you want to give Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, or newly called up Matt Skole a look in large-field tournaments. For the all-day slate, this is an offense that we can avoid completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.400 0.263 0.250 42.9% 12.0% 33.8% 27.6% 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.342 0.308 0.155 28.5% 2.6% 13.9% 47.9% 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.435 0.422 0.224 40.3% 7.1% 14.7% 40.3% 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.387 0.396 0.247 37.9% 1.3% 24.4% 43.1% OF $3,200 N/A N/A
5 Matt Skole LEFT 1.204 0.903 1.500 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1B $2,000 N/A N/A
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.294 0.334 0.189 22.7% 8.3% 24.8% 45.8% SS $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.308 0.308 0.089 29.3% 13.8% 23.1% 36.6% C $2,000 N/A N/A
8 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.232 0.230 0.070 14.8% 8.2% 27.8% 45.8% OF $2,100 N/A N/A
9 Charlie Tilson LEFT 0.177 0.177 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 9.1% 44.4% OF $2,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, Matt Skole (single-game slate only)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians have a massive implied run total tonight, as they square off against the very hittable Lucas Giolito. In addition to having a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, he has allowed a .441 xwOBA to lefties and a .355 xwOBA to righties this season. I wish this game was included in the main slate, as the Indians are my favorite offense to stack of the 30 teams in action this evening. Individually, the one through five hitters are all elite plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.412 0.346 0.268 39.5% 9.3% 21.7% 29.9% SS $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.412 0.411 0.239 39.6% 6.5% 11.4% 44.6% OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.405 0.386 0.333 30.1% 16.1% 10.3% 36.3% 3B $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.364 0.427 0.256 36.1% 6.5% 28.3% 37.2% 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.384 0.379 0.236 37.6% 9.5% 22.6% 40.2% 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.237 0.235 0.056 20.0% 5.0% 15.0% 53.3% OF $2,100 N/A N/A
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.352 0.431 0.063 38.4% 10.0% 19.4% 34.5% 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.289 0.317 0.171 34.0% 5.6% 32.6% 34.0% C $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.266 0.309 0.143 37.0% 6.7% 33.3% 58.3% OF $2,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb Jon Lester pittsburghmlb Nick Kingham
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.318 27.8% 6.1% 18.4% 47.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.207 0.272 34.8% 3.3% 20.0% 52.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.351 33.6% 10.3% 21.1% 34.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.255 0.303 43.5% 2.6% 38.5% 34.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.07 4.33 23.6% 7.9% 46.2% 28.1% 21.4%
2018 10 4.48 2.37 20.5% 9.4% 37.4% 32.3% 15.5%
L14 2 3.29 1.38 26.1% 4.4% 36.7% 25.0% 15.6%

Lester has shown some signs of life in his last few starts, but his numbers as a whole are down significantly from last season. In his ten starts in 2018, he owns a 4.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. His walk and hard contact rates are up, while his ground ball and soft contact rates are down. The Pirates aren’t exactly a juggernaut when facing left-handed pitching, but they have plenty of contact hitters in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: With 13 other games on the schedule, we should be able to find better options for cash games and tournaments.

Nick Kingham
nick-kingham-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 3 2.60 3.44 30.4% 2.9% 43.5% 39.1% 17.4%
L14 1 3.28 4.50 20.8% 4.2% 55.6% 33.3% 16.7%

Kingham has outperformed expectations in his first three major league starts, posting a 2.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. He’s still largely unproven at the major league level, but there are certainly encouraging signs. While I don’t have a ton of interest in him tonight, I will keep a close eye on how he fares in a difficult matchup against the Cubs. Chicago’s projected lineup has a .355 xwOBA against right-handed pitching with a strikeout rate of only 20%.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll take Kingham over Lester, but will likely be avoiding both starters from this game.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

We are still dealing with a very small sample size when it comes to Nick Kingham (three starts), so we should take his splits with a grain of salt. This is one of those situations that I will be avoiding entirely since I don’t have a strong preference for either side of the matchup. I don’t want to target Kingham against a potent Cubs’ offense, but I don’t want to load up on the Cubs against a talented young pitcher in a 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.363 0.373 0.119 31.5% 15.2% 11.1% 47.9% OF $2,700 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,300
2 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.382 0.399 0.282 40.0% 17.0% 22.7% 50.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.399 0.343 0.165 36.8% 13.3% 17.0% 37.7% 3B $4,500 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,500
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.385 0.430 0.165 36.7% 10.4% 9.7% 36.7% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500 1B $9,000
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.294 0.206 28.9% 6.2% 18.6% 47.1% C $3,300 C $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
6 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.330 0.491 0.281 37.8% 17.6% 40.7% 26.7% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,400
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.367 0.266 0.319 36.7% 2.0% 24.0% 40.4% 2B $4,300 2B/SS $4,800 2B $8,900
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.283 0.309 0.071 32.9% 11.5% 22.3% 38.6% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.352 0.255 0.000 38.5% 0.0% 13.3% 80.0% P $8,000 P $8,100 P $16,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are rarely an offense that I force into my lineups. They play in a bad ballpark for run production and they have struggled against southpaws this season. While I’m not driving the Jon Lester bandwagon, he’s still not a pitcher that I go out of my way to target hitters against. He has struggled a bit against righties this season, allowing a .351 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate if you want to give Francisco Cervelli or Starling Marte a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.302 0.295 0.188 40.0% 0.0% 6.3% 13.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $6,400
2 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.434 0.438 0.273 33.3% 21.4% 25.0% 20.0% C $3,200 C $3,700 C $7,600
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.442 0.344 0.364 36.4% 10.8% 29.7% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,900 CF $9,000
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.299 0.327 0.163 25.7% 11.8% 19.6% 40.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,400 1B $6,700
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.305 0.269 0.154 23.5% 4.9% 12.2% 35.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,400
6 David Freese RIGHT 0.346 0.402 0.032 26.9% 8.3% 19.4% 57.7% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,000 3B $6,000
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.427 0.291 0.333 27.8% 18.2% 27.3% 27.8% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,500
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.373 0.378 0.057 28.1% 9.8% 9.8% 31.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,900
9 Nick Kingham RIGHT 0.118 0.158 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $8,300 P $7,800 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli, Starling Marte

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Houston NY Yankees
houstonmlb Charlie Morton nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-108 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.214 0.247 35.0% 9.6% 40.0% 51.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.230 22.2% 4.9% 26.8% 51.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.263 25.3% 7.7% 21.4% 56.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.321 31.7% 6.5% 14.9% 42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $12,100 Salary: $23,300
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.70 3.62 26.4% 8.1% 51.8% 26.9% 22.1%
2018 10 3.04 2.04 31.0% 8.7% 54.6% 29.4% 20.3%
L14 2 3.62 2.08 26.0% 8.0% 43.8% 42.4% 3.0%

Morton is having a career season — 3.04 SIERA, 31% strikeout rate, and a 55% ground ball rate. By all accounts, he has been elite this season. He was dominant in his last start against the Yankees, striking out ten batters in nearly eight innings of work, but now has to face them in New York. I would have a lot more interest in Morton if he was priced at a discount. Paying over $12,000 for a start in Yankee Stadium makes me a little nauseous.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is viable in tournaments, but I plan to be underweight on him compared to the field.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1%
2018 9 4.39 3.55 17.4% 6.2% 44.2% 29.9% 26.5%
L14 2 6.22 8.68 13.0% 15.2% 39.4% 33.3% 21.2%

Sabathia is still a good pitcher, he just doesn’t offer much in terms of upside for fantasy baseball. In his nine starts this season, he has a 4.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. His biggest strength is inducing a lot of soft and medium contact. In a matchup against the talented Astros (who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball), Sabathia is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is an unnecessary risk in a 14-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros’ projected lineup has a .378 xwOBA against southpaws this season and they are playing in Yankee Stadium, so there is certainly some upside here. From a matchup standpoint, there isn’t a lot that stands out there. CC Sabathia has allowed a .321 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Those numbers aren’t great, but they are serviceable. On the season, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa all own an xwOBA of at least .380 against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.428 0.328 0.346 38.1% 8.3% 20.0% 45.2% OF $4,300 OF $4,800 RF $9,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.397 0.453 0.143 37.2% 15.3% 10.2% 30.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.401 0.437 0.096 42.2% 5.3% 14.0% 24.4% 2B $4,100 2B $4,900 2B $9,400
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.384 0.287 0.116 34.4% 18.5% 22.2% 34.4% SS $3,900 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.356 0.282 0.133 33.3% 4.3% 12.8% 35.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
6 J.D. Davis RIGHT 0.417 0.518 0.000 100.0% 37.5% 37.5% 100.0% 1B $2,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
7 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.312 0.449 0.204 30.0% 3.8% 17.3% 45.0% C $2,500 C $3,800 C $7,300
8 Max Stassi RIGHT 0.465 0.334 0.286 59.1% 3.2% 19.4% 45.5% C $2,500 C $3,700 C $7,400
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.245 0.208 0.179 22.2% 0.0% 53.8% 22.2% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, J.D. Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

I will be treating the Yankees the same way as the Pirates tonight. I plan to avoid their offense (outside of a one-off target or two) and the pitcher that they are facing. Charlie Morton has an elite strikeout rate, an elite ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA this season. Giancarlo Stanton has had the most success against Morton in the past, going 9-for-21 with a home run and two doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.310 0.273 0.121 34.9% 14.6% 17.1% 50.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.438 0.455 0.319 46.3% 15.2% 26.7% 44.2% OF $4,900 OF $5,000 RF $10,300
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.293 0.327 0.135 34.1% 9.3% 33.5% 55.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 RF $10,200
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.380 0.383 0.276 40.0% 11.3% 24.1% 35.6% C $3,500 C $4,500 C $9,000
5 Greg Bird LEFT 0.297 0.348 0.300 57.1% 0.0% 30.0% 42.9% 1B $2,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.414 0.521 0.320 39.3% 7.1% 24.7% 29.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,700 2B $9,000
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.348 0.207 0.295 43.8% 11.3% 13.9% 29.7% SS $3,500 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.358 0.373 0.189 41.9% 15.3% 17.1% 45.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
9 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.376 0.395 0.200 39.6% 1.6% 20.3% 50.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Baltimore
washingtonmlb Jeremy Hellickson baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-116 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.344 29.9% 5.6% 19.1% 47.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.372 0.389 33.3% 9.2% 22.9% 30.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.170 0.269 34.2% 1.9% 26.4% 52.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.301 35.4% 5.9% 34.8% 39.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9%
2018 7 3.47 2.13 21.8% 4.2% 49.0% 31.4% 20.0%
L14 1 2.92 1.69 23.8% 4.8% 53.3% 53.3% 13.3%

Hellickson has surpassed all expectations this season, posting a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 4%. While I’m still not buying his stock for the long haul, there have been a few opportunities to play him this season. While he will be facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ lineup tonight, he’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. He checks into the game as a small underdog with the total set at 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson has pitched well this season, but I can’t play him in this spot.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6%
2018 11 3.38 4.45 29.0% 7.5% 34.5% 34.3% 16.9%
L14 2 2.24 4.20 39.3% 5.4% 30.0% 33.3% 13.3%

Bundy is a big fan of roller coasters, or at least that’s what I assume when looking at his game log. He started the season on fire, then he fell apart, and now he’s back to being dominant again. It’s quite strange how good and bad he has looked over the last few weeks alone. Overall, he has a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. Even though the left-handed trio of Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, and Juan Soto scares me a little, Bundy offers plenty of strikeout upside at his price point.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not expecting a clean outing here, but Bundy’s strikeout upside could make up for a couple of earned runs.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals have one of the simplest matchups of the slate. Dylan Bundy has held right-handed hitters to a .301 xwOBA this season with a massive strikeout rate of 35%. Meanwhile, he has allowed a .389 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, and Juan Soto are all elite tournament plays here, especially if you are looking for leverage on Bundy’s high ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.361 0.417 0.153 37.9% 11.7% 19.9% 53.5% SS $4,300 SS $4,500 IF/OF $9,200
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.455 0.342 0.342 44.6% 22.1% 18.2% 35.9% OF $5,300 OF $5,300 RF $10,100
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.403 0.419 0.231 37.0% 10.8% 9.8% 35.0% 3B $3,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,700
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.434 0.286 0.363 43.0% 12.7% 19.5% 32.9% 1B $4,300 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.537 0.485 0.750 53.9% 15.8% 15.8% 38.5% 1B $4,100 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,500
6 Juan Soto LEFT 0.333 0.426 0.133 40.0% 6.3% 31.3% 30.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.274 0.246 0.119 29.1% 9.4% 28.8% 51.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.311 0.312 0.115 17.3% 13.2% 15.8% 50.6% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,200 2B $6,300
9 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.285 0.250 0.072 24.1% 12.2% 18.3% 38.9% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams (Cash), Juan Soto (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

If we take away the name, this matchup doesn’t bode that well for the right-handed heavy Orioles. On the season, Jeremy Hellickson has held righties to a .269 xwOBA with a 53% ground ball rate. Even in this ballpark, those aren’t the numbers that we are looking for. Hellickson has been significantly worse against lefties, but I don’t trust Chris Davis or Pedro Alvarez as far as I can throw them. I’ll have some shares of Manny Machado, but he’s not a core play in this large slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.386 0.298 0.126 35.6% 10.5% 21.6% 49.0% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.369 0.398 0.230 39.2% 1.9% 21.0% 40.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.380 0.325 0.255 32.8% 10.5% 16.4% 36.0% SS $4,700 SS $5,200 3B $10,300
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.232 0.225 0.188 22.7% 1.0% 26.7% 48.6% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,400
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.287 0.284 0.048 31.2% 9.3% 35.0% 48.0% 1B $2,400 1B $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.361 0.279 0.164 47.6% 1.8% 23.2% 40.5% OF $2,800 1B $3,500 DH $6,700
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.371 0.285 0.258 32.8% 14.4% 24.0% 39.1% 3B $3,100 1B/3B $3,500 1B $6,700
8 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.284 0.317 0.110 33.3% 8.5% 36.2% 48.9% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,700
9 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.279 0.338 0.090 25.0% 11.7% 24.7% 50.0% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,600 2B $4,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

LA Angels Detroit
laangelsmlb Nick Tropeano detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.334 42.9% 6.7% 18.7% 41.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.368 35.9% 9.2% 19.1% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.370 40.7% 13.1% 21.4% 29.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.319 36.5% 7.3% 23.6% 48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Tropeano
nick-tropeano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 7 4.66 3.86 20.1% 10.1% 35.5% 41.8% 13.6%
L14 2 4.21 4.50 23.8% 9.5% 32.1% 32.1% 17.9%

Tropeano pitched well in his last start, striking out six batters and giving up a single earned run against the Blue Jays. After that outing, he’ll draw some attention in a matchup against the right-handed heavy Tigers. While this is a good matchup for strikeouts, the Tigers’ offense is better than most realize. Their projected lineup has a .339 xwOBA against righties and eight of their hitters have a hard contact rate above 34%.

Quick Breakdown: Tropeano is a fade for me in all formats, especially if he becomes popular.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 10 4.12 4.08 21.2% 8.3% 47.2% 36.1% 15.1%
L14 2 4.16 3.00 25.0% 10.4% 36.7% 40.0% 6.7%

Fulmer isn’t a pitcher that I roster much in DFS. His numbers are mediocre across the board — 4.12 SIERA, 21% strikeout rate, and an 8% walk rate. He has a decent ground ball rate, but still gives up a lot of hard contact. While the bottom of the Angels’ lineup is exploitable, they have a very low strikeout rate as a whole when facing right-handed pitching. I don’t have anything bad to say about Fulmer here, but that’s not exactly an endorsement to play him.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is a fade in a low-strikeout matchup against the Angels.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

From an advanced statistic perspective, Michael Fulmer should struggle against left-handed hitters, but we’ve been saying this for years. Somehow, he continues to have better numbers against lefties than we expect. It doesn’t really matter in this matchup though, as the Angels are a right-handed heavy lineup. They have a fairly high implied run total tonight, but Fulmer has held righties to a .319 xwOBA and a 49% ground ball rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.314 0.290 0.163 33.6% 8.2% 19.5% 40.4% 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,200 SS $6,600
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.481 0.497 0.384 47.4% 20.2% 18.7% 33.6% OF $5,200 OF $5,800 CF $10,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.381 0.314 0.228 42.9% 9.1% 25.3% 42.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.344 0.359 0.173 38.4% 4.7% 14.0% 39.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,300 1B $6,800
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.385 0.383 0.163 40.9% 5.9% 3.9% 47.0% SS $3,800 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.312 0.260 0.095 30.5% 9.2% 9.9% 41.9% 2B $2,600 2B $3,000 2B $5,600
7 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.244 0.181 0.090 33.3% 5.1% 33.9% 40.8% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $3,200 3B $6,300
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.283 0.214 0.101 25.3% 4.6% 18.5% 39.7% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.256 0.276 0.046 33.0% 5.1% 26.8% 58.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 RF $5,400

Elite Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (Cash), Zack Cozart, Justin Upton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are a sneaky offense to target tonight. I already mentioned that Nick Tropeano could garner some ownership here, even though he has allowed a .334 xwOBA to lefties and a .370 xwOBA to righties this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a 42% hard contact rate this season. The Tigers have five batters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .345 against righties and eight batters with a hard contact rate over 34%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.420 0.228 0.205 40.6% 7.6% 19.7% 35.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.378 0.352 0.174 46.6% 4.4% 20.9% 34.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,500
3 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.347 0.409 0.228 35.6% 11.5% 20.6% 42.5% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 3B $6,600
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.364 0.382 0.106 45.2% 9.3% 9.3% 39.4% C $2,500 1B $3,100 1B $5,500
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.354 0.428 0.241 35.3% 8.1% 32.6% 49.0% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,500 1B $6,500
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.298 0.299 0.178 46.8% 3.2% 30.1% 41.7% C $2,600 1B/C $3,200 C $6,700
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.304 0.363 0.080 34.1% 6.5% 19.4% 39.6% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.269 0.318 0.090 24.0% 5.1% 12.8% 47.5% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.321 0.317 0.077 34.0% 7.0% 17.6% 45.3% 2B $2,100 2B $2,600 SS $4,900

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos (GPP), Jeimer Candelario (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (Cash), Jeimer Candelario (Cash), Niko Goodrum, John Hicks (DK), James McCann (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious