Sign In $

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-04 20:27:01

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Cody Reed pittsburghmlb Joe Musgrove
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.181 0.195 40.0% 0.00 18.5% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.311 33.8% 1.07 16.0% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.356 0.313 29.0% 2.19 21.8% 57.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.296 36.3% 0.98 22.4% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Reed
cody-reed-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 1 6.46 5.09 21.5% 24.1% 60.5% 32.6% 16.3% 94.3 13.3%
2018 2 3.92 3.26 20.7% 8.5% 55.2% 32.8% 20.7% 92.8 10.2%
L14 1 3.75 1.00 22.2% 11.1% 66.7% 33.3% 20.8% 92.5 12.2%

Happy Tuesday everyone. We are going to have a slightly abbreviated version of the Grind Down today. I’ve been working on NFL content and still have to get all of the PGA content up later today, so you get the CliffsNotes version. By the way, did anyone use these in school? I was always too scared to get busted. Anyway, we start with a game that we don’t need to spend much time on. Reed is not a great fantasy option, as he has struggled with his command and with right-handed hitters throughout his major league career. He’s an easy fade as a sizable underdog on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Reed in all formats.

Joe Musgrove
joe-musgrove-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 4.04 4.77 21.2% 6.1% 44.9% 30.2% 20.2% 92.9 11.7%
2018 16 4.07 3.80 19.5% 5.1% 46.3% 35.1% 20.9% 93.1 10.6%
L14 2 3.31 8.10 25.6% 2.3% 33.3% 58.1% 9.7% 92.7 12.4%

Musgrove is a decent SP2 tonight in tournaments. He’s quietly had a nice season for the Pirates, posting a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He’s a sizable favorite and he’s playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Reds have some good lefties in their lineup, but there are more strikeouts in this offense than most people realize. Cincinnati’s projected lineup has an average k-rate of 28% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board. They are playing on the road in a bad ballpark for offensive production and they draw a difficult matchup against Joe Musgrove, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. I know that Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez have both mashed right-handed pitching this season, but there are better options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.249 0.073 18.1% 8.3% 23.0% 41.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.295 0.114 31.0% 5.5% 12.3% 35.4% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.450 0.155 39.4% 19.3% 13.9% 33.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.338 0.177 38.9% 7.2% 18.6% 40.7% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 2B $9,400
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.372 0.239 46.8% 8.9% 23.2% 38.2% 3B $4,000 3B $4,700 3B $8,900
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.351 0.209 42.0% 9.4% 24.7% 52.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
7 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.330 0.126 33.3% 7.9% 21.3% 35.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.334 0.131 40.6% 10.4% 14.8% 40.5% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,500
9 Cody Reed LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,800 P $5,000 P $10,000
Team Averages 0.302 0.136 32.2% 8.5% 28.0% 35.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against southpaw Cody Reed, but this is an offense that has struggled against left-handed pitching for most of the season. One of their best right-handed hitters (David Freese) was just traded to the Dodgers, which makes this offense even less appealing when facing a lefty. The two hitters that deserve consideration here are Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli. They both own a .360+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.360 0.183 34.8% 7.1% 21.3% 55.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 CF $9,300
2 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.347 0.119 36.4% 4.5% 20.5% 36.4% OF $2,800 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,300
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.305 0.183 31.8% 10.2% 23.4% 37.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 RF $9,200
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.378 0.136 35.4% 18.1% 21.7% 35.4% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,500
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.280 0.077 22.0% 3.6% 20.7% 45.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.312 0.167 30.7% 10.8% 21.5% 43.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.327 0.163 37.7% 6.5% 18.3% 37.7% 2B $2,000 2B $3,400 2B $6,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.350 0.126 33.3% 7.5% 14.2% 35.8% SS $2,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
9 Joe Musgrove RIGHT 0.212 0.125 16.7% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% P $7,500 P $7,000 P $13,500
Team Averages 0.319 0.142 31.0% 7.6% 20.7% 41.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte (GPP), Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Washington
stlouismlb John Gant washingtonmlb Erick Fedde
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 0.347 56.6% 1.16 18.8% 39.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.372 0.414 34.8% 1.29 13.3% 52.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.273 33.9% 0.20 21.6% 52.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.413 0.392 36.2% 1.93 18.0% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Gant
john-gant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 2 5.57 4.67 14.5% 13.2% 53.7% 29.6% 25.9% 93.0 9.3%
2018 14 4.62 3.34 20.2% 10.6% 45.0% 46.1% 16.9% 93.2 11.2%
L14 3 5.38 1.59 18.1% 13.9% 46.8% 46.9% 12.2% 93.2 11.6%

It looks like John Gant will draw the start tonight instead of Miles Mikolas. The plan was to fade Mikolas in all formats and I’m not seeing much of a change now that Gant is pitching. If anything, it makes me like the Nationals’ offense a bit more. Gant has really struggled against lefties this season and will have to fave a few really good ones tonight in Washington.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Erick Fedde
erick-fedde-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 3 4.45 9.39 19.7% 10.5% 61.7% 34.6% 15.4% 92.9 5.7%
2018 6 4.41 5.79 15.7% 7.4% 52.2% 35.5% 16.1% 94.3 7.9%

Fedde has not been sharp in his nine major league starts over the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has a SIERA over 4.40 with a strikeout rate under 18%. His biggest strength is his high ground ball rate, but the Cardinals’ lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters (specifically Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, and Paul DeJong). The best type of pitchers to target against St. Louis are righties with high strikeout rates and Fedde clearly doesn’t fit that mold.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fedde in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals aren’t playing in the best ballpark for run production, but they draw a favorable matchup against Erick Fedde. On the season, he has allowed a .414 xwOBA to lefties and a .392 xwOBA to righties. While he does have a high ground ball rate against batters from both sides of the plate, we can negate that by targeting fly-ball hitters. Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, and Paul DeJong all own a .355+ xwOBA and high fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.436 0.304 49.4% 14.9% 22.8% 20.6% 1B $4,200 1B/3B $5,300 3B $9,800
2 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.348 0.171 45.2% 5.8% 13.4% 41.2% C $3,100 C $3,800 C $7,300
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.395 0.172 40.4% 8.1% 16.7% 48.1% OF $3,600 1B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.351 0.119 45.2% 5.8% 17.7% 48.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.371 0.251 37.5% 9.3% 21.0% 32.8% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,200
6 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.358 0.207 38.6% 6.4% 25.5% 32.1% SS $3,400 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
7 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.275 0.142 36.1% 7.1% 32.0% 44.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
8 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.305 0.063 28.3% 9.1% 15.2% 45.2% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,800
9 John Gant RIGHT 0.183 0.143 11.8% 0.0% 29.2% 69.2% P $6,700 P $6,800 P $13,800
Team Averages 0.336 0.175 36.9% 7.4% 21.5% 42.4%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP), Paul DeJong (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (Cash), Matt Adams (Cash), Paul DeJong (Cash), Yadier Molina (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals are a much more intriguing offense now that John Gant is going to take the mound for the Cardinals. He has a high walk rate this season and has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a massive 57% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper stands out as one of the top outfield plays on the board, as he boasts a .270 ISO against right-handed pitching. Adam Eaton and Juan Soto are also viable, although I see them as secondary plays in the outfield.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.369 0.136 36.5% 8.8% 15.9% 44.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 RF $9,100
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.316 0.140 30.3% 7.9% 20.0% 52.1% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.390 0.270 42.3% 17.0% 25.1% 36.6% OF $4,400 OF $4,800 RF $8,900
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.381 0.196 35.8% 8.2% 13.7% 36.3% 3B $4,000 3B $4,200 3B $8,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.383 0.212 35.9% 18.3% 19.3% 50.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $8,900
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.388 0.216 40.3% 6.8% 18.6% 48.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.291 0.126 21.2% 7.2% 15.9% 42.4% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,900
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.296 0.057 30.8% 12.2% 23.2% 38.8% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,700
9 Erick Fedde RIGHT 0.176 0.000 25.0% 12.5% 37.5% 100.0% P $5,700 P $5,300 P $10,400
Team Averages 0.332 0.150 33.1% 11.0% 21.0% 50.0%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Juan Soto

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
tampabaymlb Ryne Stanek torontomlb Ryan Borucki
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -113 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.206 0.230 31.7% 0.00 38.6% 24.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.303 30.8% 0.60 14.3% 61.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.325 45.5% 1.57 25.7% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.364 34.5% 0.74 14.0% 39.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryne Stanek
ryne-stanek-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.67 5.85 30.5% 12.6% 35.2% 44.4% 3.7% 98.2 15.4%
2018 22 3.48 2.77 30.6% 10.1% 31.8% 41.1% 20.2% 98.0 15.2%
L14 2 3.96 3.00 23.8% 4.8% 26.7% 26.7% 20.0% 98.2 18.7%

I’m sure it’s happened before, but I can’t remember a time when a pitcher started (and actually pitched) in back-to-back games. Stanek helped the Rays pick up a win last night and will be back on the mound to start tonight’s game. Yes, it will be another bullpen start, but it’s a little strange. Jalen Beeks is going to eat up the bulk of the innings for Tampa Bay. He is a talented lefty that has pitched well in each of his last six outings. The issue tonight is his matchup against the right-handed heavy Blue Jays.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid both Stanek and Beeks tonight in Toronto.

Ryan Borucki
ryan-borucki-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,800
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 12 5.02 4.52 14.0% 7.4% 44.3% 33.6% 13.5% 91.7 6.8%
L14 3 5.27 10.03 12.3% 5.3% 32.6% 41.3% 8.7% 91.5 7.8%

Borucki has made 12 starts this season, posting a SIERA over five with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He doesn’t really have the upside that we are looking for in a pitcher, even though he draws a favorable matchup against the Rays. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of .312 with a strikeout rate of 24% against left-handed pitching. The matchup is enticing, but there are a handful of pitchers that I would play over Borucki at his price point.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Borucki in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and they draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki, who has allowed a .364 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. I’m not going to go overboard with my Rays’ exposure in a 15-game slate, but Tommy Pham and C.J. Cron both stand out as viable tournament plays. They both bat from the right side and own a .350+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.317 0.079 25.5% 8.2% 20.5% 52.2% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,600
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.307 0.060 31.2% 9.2% 18.5% 59.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
3 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.463 0.122 52.2% 14.7% 19.3% 49.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 CF $9,300
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.357 0.240 40.7% 7.1% 28.6% 40.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,600 1B $9,100
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.269 0.115 36.2% 7.4% 23.5% 46.8% 2B $3,100 2B $4,300 2B $8,500
6 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.295 0.130 45.5% 8.3% 36.7% 51.5% SS $3,000 SS $3,800 SS $7,700
7 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.223 0.147 18.0% 7.3% 31.7% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,600
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.324 0.136 30.7% 4.2% 23.5% 28.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 CF $7,500
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.251 0.025 40.0% 6.8% 13.6% 45.7% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,600
Team Averages 0.312 0.117 35.6% 8.1% 24.0% 47.1%

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham (Cash), C.J. Cron (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays will face Ryne Stanek for an inning and will then square off against Jalen Beeks. On the season, Beeks has allowed a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters, which plays right into the hands of the Toronto’s offense. I know that they’ve been a big disappointment so far this season, but the advanced numbers like this offense quite a bit. Lourdes Gurriel, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Randal Grichuk all bat from the right side and all boast a .340+ xwOBA against southpaws. I will continue to play Billy McKinney, as long as he’s batting leadoff again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.469 0.361 55.6% 11.6% 23.3% 33.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 LF $7,400
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.343 0.174 33.0% 2.4% 22.2% 40.4% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,600
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.409 0.268 39.7% 16.1% 26.2% 32.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,700 1B $8,900
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.448 0.250 45.6% 12.2% 19.4% 44.5% 1B $3,800 1B $4,300 1B $8,100
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.351 0.270 35.2% 6.3% 22.7% 35.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.337 0.172 33.7% 3.7% 19.3% 35.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.328 0.144 30.1% 15.3% 23.8% 49.7% 3B $2,700 3B/C $3,000 C $5,700
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.347 0.181 33.9% 3.3% 12.8% 41.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,300 SS $6,800
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.325 0.133 33.0% 5.7% 20.1% 54.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
Team Averages 0.373 0.217 37.8% 8.5% 21.1% 40.9%

Elite Plays – Billy McKinney, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Randal Grichuk (GPP), Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-230 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.341 37.5% 0.61 22.3% 35.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.331 35.4% 1.00 21.2% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.357 37.9% 1.44 20.2% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.271 0.272 36.1% 0.81 28.2% 42.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.31 3.81 21.4% 6.7% 39.5% 29.8% 17.8% 92.8 11.4%
2018 27 4.70 4.72 20.6% 10.1% 35.2% 37.8% 16.6% 93.2 9.7%
L14 2 3.97 2.45 27.1% 10.4% 31.0% 20.7% 17.2% 91.7 7.5%

Duffy has been sharp in his last two starts, but we have reason to be concerned. His velocity and swinging strike rate were both down during that two-game stretch. We know that Duffy needs to have his velocity up to be successful because he gives up a lot of hard contact. When he’s not striking batters out at a high rate, he can get into trouble quickly. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Indians, who have one of the best offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Duffy in all formats.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $11,000 Salary: $21,100
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6% 92.5 12.5%
2018 27 3.91 3.17 24.7% 8.1% 39.8% 35.8% 17.7% 93.5 11.7%
L14 3 2.85 1.45 32.4% 5.4% 34.8% 37.0% 17.4% 94.1 14.2%

Clevinger is one of the safest pitching options on the board tonight, but I’m not prioritizing him in cash games or tournaments. At a similar price point, we can target Rich Hill against the Mets or we can drop down a big and play Robbie Ray against the Padres. I’m not saying Clevinger is a bad play by any means, he’s just not going to make my single entry and three-max lineups. If you are building multiple GPP teams, you could certainly look at him as a pivot off of the more popular plays priced around him.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is viable in tournaments, but won’t make the final cut on my rosters.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are large underdogs on the road and they draw a difficult matchup against Mike Clevinger. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .272 xwOBA with a 28% strikeout rate. The one and only hitter on my radar from Kansas City is Ryan O’Hearn, who has been tearing the cover off the ball (five home runs in his last time games). He is still affordable across the industry, he should be batting clean-up, and he currently boasts a .404 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.345 0.118 37.2% 9.8% 16.4% 36.2% 2B $3,900 2B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
2 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.384 0.151 38.8% 9.1% 20.1% 43.2% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,700
3 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.306 0.181 51.2% 3.6% 30.6% 41.1% 3B $2,900 1B/3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,400
4 Ryan O’Hearn LEFT 0.480 0.404 55.0% 14.8% 19.7% 35.0% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
5 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.320 0.125 35.6% 7.3% 18.7% 30.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,300
6 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.344 0.190 35.9% 10.1% 30.3% 43.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
7 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.294 0.153 40.0% 3.4% 28.2% 41.9% SS $2,900 2B/SS $4,200 2B $8,400
8 Brett Phillips LEFT 0.262 0.208 45.0% 7.6% 41.8% 30.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
9 Meibrys Viloria LEFT C $2,000 C $3,100 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.342 0.191 42.3% 8.2% 25.7% 37.8%

Elite Plays – Ryan O’Hearn (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ryan O’Hearn (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians could easily be the highest scoring offense of the night, yet I expect them to have lower ownership than the Rockies. As mentioned above, Danny Duffy velocity and swinging strike rate have been down recently. If you can make contact against Duffy, it’s typically good contact. He has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. We know the Indians mash southpaws and they could have some decent value plays batting in the middle of their lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.405 0.200 42.4% 11.6% 11.6% 45.3% SS $4,400 SS $5,100 SS $9,500
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.323 0.098 26.1% 3.8% 9.2% 51.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.356 0.210 38.7% 7.3% 9.3% 37.4% 3B $4,700 3B $5,400 IF/OF $10,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.386 0.170 46.8% 16.7% 19.2% 29.9% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $8,900
5 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.284 0.105 33.3% 0.0% 21.1% 46.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
6 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.355 0.233 33.3% 9.3% 16.8% 34.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 RF $5,700
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.396 0.226 47.8% 7.7% 25.0% 31.3% C $2,900 C $4,000 C $7,300
8 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.295 0.140 31.8% 10.2% 21.1% 29.9% 2B $3,000 2B $4,100 2B $8,500
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.265 0.023 32.9% 5.4% 19.4% 46.4% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.341 0.156 37.0% 8.0% 17.0% 39.2%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yandy Diaz

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta miamimlb Trevor Richards
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-130 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.350 28.1% 1.33 17.5% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.302 32.3% 0.37 23.9% 30.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.299 26.5% 0.73 18.1% 55.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.370 48.1% 1.54 23.3% 39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0% 92.1 8.7%
2018 26 4.36 3.54 17.9% 7.9% 53.0% 27.2% 19.3% 93.0 7.2%
L14 2 5.13 8.00 18.6% 14.0% 53.6% 28.6% 17.9% 93.5 8.0%

Arrieta pitched well against the Marlins in their last meeting, but he’s not a pitcher that I want to play in a 15-game slate. With such a low strikeout rate and such a high ground ball rate, he is always at the mercy of BABIP. When those grounders find holes, he gives up runs. I know the Marlins are an offense that we like to pick on, but they have been pesky at the plate this season. At the very least, they will make Arrieta work and at this price point, I would rather chase a pitcher with more strikeout upside.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta will not be making my lineups tonight.

Trevor Richards
trevor-richards-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 20 4.34 4.26 23.6% 10.3% 35.2% 41.1% 14.4% 90.9 10.1%
L14 2 3.38 4.09 34.1% 11.4% 25.0% 25.0% 16.7% 90.6 11.8%

Richards has a much lower floor than Arrieta, but he also offers a higher ceiling. In 20 starts this season, he owns a 4.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so he always gets a boost when he’s playing at home in this ballpark. The fact that he has reverse-splits may actually benefit him, as the Phillies will roll out a left-handed heavy lineup. Richards carries plenty of risk, but the projected lineup for Philadelphia has an average k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Richards is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are playing on the road and they see a negative ballpark shift. As mentioned above, Trevor Richards has a high strikeout rate and some serious reverse-splits. On the season, he has held lefties to a .302 xwOBA, while allowing a .370 xwOBA and a 48% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Rhys Hoskins and Wilson Ramos are clearly the top two targets here, as they both bat from the right side and own a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.271 0.174 22.5% 4.2% 12.5% 60.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.374 0.272 37.3% 11.4% 24.3% 29.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,200
3 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.312 0.118 23.1% 14.1% 22.5% 41.6% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,700
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.361 0.180 42.4% 7.9% 19.4% 54.3% C $3,200 C $4,100 C $8,300
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.366 0.178 34.7% 18.2% 16.2% 38.9% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
6 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.354 0.233 42.5% 7.0% 22.1% 38.8% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,700
7 Nick Williams LEFT 0.379 0.207 33.2% 8.0% 21.9% 42.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.297 0.105 25.0% 5.2% 22.7% 38.7% SS $2,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,500
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.149 0.111 36.4% 3.4% 58.6% 22.2% P $8,100 P $7,400 P $14,800
Team Averages 0.318 0.175 33.0% 8.8% 24.5% 40.8%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Wilson Ramos (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Wilson Ramos (DK Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins are an easy offense to avoid completely. Jake Arrieta doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, but he has an elite ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 29% hard contact rate this season. In a 15-game slate, we don’t have to look far to find a more exploitable matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.336 0.049 36.4% 7.6% 9.1% 44.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.354 0.120 38.9% 7.7% 17.0% 53.1% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,500
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.370 0.218 39.2% 6.9% 17.5% 42.4% C $3,500 C $4,700 C $9,100
4 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.325 0.151 37.5% 6.3% 23.2% 39.3% OF $2,900 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.328 0.124 36.4% 6.9% 18.8% 49.5% 2B $3,000 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
6 JT Riddle LEFT 0.318 0.164 33.3% 7.5% 19.2% 46.8% SS $2,400 SS $3,700 SS $7,300
7 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.332 0.231 45.2% 2.5% 20.0% 41.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,400
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.166 0.013 19.7% 1.2% 23.5% 58.8% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 CF $5,900
9 Trevor Richards RIGHT 0.040 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 52.4% 100.0% P $6,600 P $7,300 P $14,700
Team Averages 0.285 0.119 31.8% 5.2% 22.3% 52.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious