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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-03 00:28:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Detroit NY Yankees
detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-215 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.338 36.4% 5.9% 16.1% 37.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.307 32.3% 4.0% 22.3% 51.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.341 30.7% 6.8% 14.2% 38.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.303 32.0% 5.3% 22.4% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.81 4.87 14.7% 5.8% 43.1% 27.3% 18.5%
2017 20 5.12 5.69 15.6% 6.9% 33.0% 39.3% 14.0%
L30 5 5.05 6.23 14.3% 5.0% 33.0% 39.4% 13.8%

I wouldn’t describe the three-game early slate as fascinating, but it should at least provide some entertainment for the work day. There are two pitchers that we can automatically cross off our list of potential targets and unfortunately, Zimmermann is one of them. Odds are, he’s not going to be a starter in the majors for much longer. After a subpar 2016 campaign, his numbers have gotten even worse this season. He currently sports a 5.12 SIERA (5.69 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate that is 6% higher than his ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: In this ballpark against this offense, Zimmermann could realistically end up with negative fantasy points.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 21 3.54 5.09 25.1% 5.1% 49.6% 31.7% 18.6%
L30 5 2.50 3.82 32.3% 1.5% 50.6% 27.7% 20.5%

It’s strange to say, but Tanaka is the clear ace of this three-game slate. I’ve been highlighting the positives for Tanaka all season. He has a career-high swinging strike rate (14.8%) and the advanced numbers all look solid. He’s just been incredibly unlucky when it comes to home runs. The major league average HR/FB rate is just over 10%, while Tanaka’s is currently sitting at 22.9%. Nearly one fourth of every fly-ball he has given up has gone for a home run. That’s not a sustainable pace, even for bad pitchers. Luckily, we finally saw a big outing from Tanaka in his last outing, as he struck out 14 batters against the Rays. It’s hard not to like him again today, as he squares off against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments. He’s easily the top pitching option in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers draw a difficult matchup against Masahiro Tanaka, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA in the last two seasons. While they do see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, this is a team that is already making offseason vacation plans. They are basically going to mail it in during the last two months of the season. Tanaka has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, but there isn’t a lot to love in this lineup outside of a Miguel Cabrera one-off.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.303 0.314 0.115 34.7% 10.4% 12.5% 32.9% 2B $3,300 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.328 0.350 0.174 57.1% 9.8% 21.6% 54.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 N/A N/A
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.351 0.351 0.221 42.7% 12.5% 27.9% 36.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.314 0.385 0.184 46.0% 10.0% 20.1% 42.0% 1B $3,700 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.295 0.334 0.145 45.1% 7.3% 25.6% 40.9% 3B $2,800 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.308 0.375 0.133 43.5% 8.9% 13.0% 39.3% C $2,700 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.344 0.316 0.139 34.6% 6.4% 21.8% 48.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.242 0.303 0.105 43.4% 8.3% 26.5% 39.0% C $2,500 C $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.251 0.110 30.2% 4.2% 13.8% 52.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees were a letdown last night against Anibal Sanchez, but they have a great opportunity to get back into our good graces today. They draw the best matchup in the early slate and one of the best matchups on the schedule. Jordan Zimmermann is a low strikeout pitcher that has a higher hard contact rate than ground ball rate. He has allowed a .338+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters, which bodes well for a Yankees’ stack. Given the fact that there are only three early games, I would even consider a Yankees’ stack in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.373 0.348 0.233 36.6% 12.1% 18.9% 40.6% OF $4,100 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.332 0.344 0.263 48.8% 3.3% 28.3% 39.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.440 0.333 47.2% 14.8% 31.3% 38.6% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 N/A N/A
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.359 0.214 36.1% 7.7% 23.9% 43.9% C $3,600 C $5,200 N/A N/A
5 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.328 0.348 0.224 30.5% 10.0% 24.6% 48.5% OF $2,500 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.374 0.280 0.239 25.9% 4.1% 13.1% 39.8% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.356 0.336 0.134 30.4% 13.2% 23.1% 44.4% 1B $3,300 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.316 0.346 0.181 28.7% 13.1% 21.6% 39.3% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.278 0.243 0.081 19.2% 2.4% 13.1% 48.9% 2B $2,600 3B/SS $3,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Chase Headley

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Toronto Chicago White Sox
torontomlb J.A. Happ whitesoxmlb Derek Holland
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-175 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.324 33.1% 5.9% 17.8% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.275 24.1% 6.2% 19.0% 54.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.315 30.8% 7.6% 21.1% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.373 0.377 37.5% 9.3% 15.1% 34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 14 4.31 4.15 20.5% 6.7% 44.5% 30.5% 19.7%
L30 5 5.57 5.00 15.1% 11.1% 44.6% 26.9% 23.7%

On the surface, Happ looks like a bad play against the White Sox, but I’m going to do my best to make a strong case for him. For starters, we only have three games in the early slate and the pitching options are limited. Everyone will be scared off by his matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching, but that was before the Todd Frazier trade, the Melky Cabrera trade, and the Avisail Garcia injury. Their lineup is no longer intimidating for a southpaw. Outside of Jose Abreu, they don’t have a single hitter with an xwOBA over .330 against lefties this season. The one argument against Happ is the form and it should be a concern. His last five starts have been tough to watch.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Happ has struggled recently, I’m a fan of the matchup and the price point. He’s my favorite SP2 in the early slate.

Derek Holland
derek-holland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 5.10 4.95 14.5% 7.6% 38.3% 32.2% 17.7%
2017 20 5.19 5.42 17.2% 9.8% 38.3% 37.7% 18.7%
L30 5 6.31 9.38 10.3% 11.2% 38.2% 36.0% 11.2%

Holland is the second pitcher that we can leave off our list of potential targets that I alluded to earlier. He basically has the exact opposite of what we are looking for in a pitcher – high SIERA, low strikeout rate, high walk rate, low ground ball rate, and a high hard contact rate. He is one of the juiciest matchups in baseball for a right-handed hitter and the Blue Jays happen to have nine of them in their projected lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Baseball can be random, but if you are playing Holland, you are doing it wrong.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays and Yankees are the two offenses that we should be loading up on in this early slate. They are clearly in the two best spots and they also happen to be the two best offenses. As mentioned above, Derek Holland has been dreadful against right-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .377 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. Toronto will see the splits and roll out nine right-handed batters today, which bodes well for a stack in tournaments. It’s tough to fade Jose Bautista at this price point, but it’s worth pointing out that he only has a .276 xwOBA against lefties this season. Leaving Bautista off of your Toronto stack could help create a unique lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.254 0.276 0.110 27.0% 13.9% 26.9% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.278 0.352 0.130 32.4% 17.9% 25.4% 29.7% C $3,100 C $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.345 0.343 0.205 41.2% 18.5% 18.5% 38.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.480 0.447 0.280 43.1% 12.6% 11.6% 36.1% 1B $3,900 1B $5,400 N/A N/A
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.394 0.373 0.233 40.6% 5.3% 22.1% 58.0% 1B $2,900 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.325 0.319 0.241 34.1% 6.1% 22.7% 36.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.386 0.347 0.235 36.9% 7.4% 13.9% 37.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.211 0.174 0.054 8.0% 4.9% 34.1% 63.6% SS $2,300 2B/SS $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.271 0.273 0.013 13.1% 12.1% 20.9% 40.0% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $2,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Steve Pearce, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been very good against left-handed pitching this season, but they traded away three of their best four right-handed hitters. This is not an imposing lineup anymore. Jose Abreu has excellent numbers against southpaws, but do we really want to play him over Justin Smoak, who has been on an absolute tear recently? Even though J.A. Happ has been in bad form recently, he has held righties to a .315 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. I’m higher on Happ than most and will not be forcing any White Sox hitters into my lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.310 0.293 0.084 29.6% 2.0% 25.3% 45.7% SS $2,500 SS $2,400 N/A N/A
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.285 0.120 16.7% 7.4% 23.2% 46.8% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.447 0.427 0.261 38.9% 7.8% 19.6% 45.8% 1B $3,700 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.328 0.310 0.205 28.8% 6.4% 30.9% 28.8% 3B $3,100 1B/3B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.425 0.328 0.267 33.3% 11.8% 0.0% 73.3% 2B $2,100 2B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.326 0.325 0.071 27.3% 11.8% 19.6% 38.7% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $2,600 N/A N/A
7 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.312 0.274 0.039 17.0% 3.5% 12.3% 64.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
8 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.187 0.232 0.078 16.7% 0.0% 15.2% 69.8% C $2,000 C $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.299 0.219 0.114 13.0% 10.0% 30.0% 52.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Minnesota San Diego
minnesotamlb Ervin Santana sandiegomlb Luis Perdomo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-104 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.300 29.1% 6.7% 16.5% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.373 0.369 38.5% 7.6% 13.2% 53.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.319 29.8% 8.5% 22.1% 39.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.292 29.2% 7.6% 19.3% 68.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 21 4.80 3.37 18.7% 8.4% 42.8% 29.6% 20.4%
L30 5 4.98 5.34 17.4% 8.3% 39.6% 38.8% 18.4%

Santana is overpriced. Santana’s advanced numbers suggest regression. Santana has been in bad form. Yet somehow, he’s still a viable option thanks to a matchup against the Padres. I would rather load up on bats by taking a cheaper SP2, but I will never talk you off of a pitcher facing the Padres. On the season, San Diego is ranked 26th in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. To put it kindly, they suck. They don’t have any notable lefties in their lineup, so if you want to pay up for Santana, I’m not going to argue against it.

Quick Breakdown: Santana is expensive, but he’s certainly viable against the Padres in a National League ballpark.

Luis Perdomo
luis-perdomo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.04 5.71 15.9% 7.0% 59.0% 34.0% 16.7%
2017 18 4.11 4.76 17.5% 8.5% 64.9% 33.0% 18.1%
L30 4 4.54 4.95 11.3% 7.2% 63.3% 36.7% 17.7%

I have mixed feelings with Perdomo today. On the one hand, I’m a Perdomo truther and like to play him at home. On the other hand, the Twins have more lefties in their lineup than most people think. If they roll out this projected lineup, they will send six lefties to the plate. While they aren’t the best lefties in baseball, Perdomo has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate. Much like Ervin Santana, I’m not going to talk you off of Perdomo, but J.A. Happ is my favorite SP2 in this early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, I’d rather take a shot on Perdomo over Santana, but Happ is still the preferred target.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins get the triple negative here. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH in this series, and they are facing a pitcher with an elite ground ball rate. That doesn’t seem like a great combination. As I mentioned earlier, do whatever you can to load up on Blue Jays and Yankees. If you absolutely must target hitters from the Twins, given an edge to those that can bat from the left side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.306 0.312 0.180 33.9% 9.9% 21.6% 39.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Max Kepler LEFT 0.362 0.322 0.204 36.1% 9.4% 17.2% 39.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.355 0.354 0.238 48.0% 11.4% 36.8% 38.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.350 0.391 0.127 40.3% 13.1% 13.8% 48.8% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.287 0.310 0.116 29.9% 4.8% 17.4% 33.9% SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.350 0.305 0.192 31.4% 6.8% 18.9% 43.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Zack Granite LEFT 0.310 0.045 17.5% 8.3% 8.3% 47.5% OF $2,800 OF $2,100 N/A N/A
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.311 0.323 0.166 38.0% 12.0% 28.8% 37.2% C $2,700 C $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Ervin Santana RIGHT 0.000 0.119 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $8,900 P $10,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

Are you as excited as I am for this early slate? I sure hope so, because my excitement would be a two on a scale of ten. The Padres aren’t helping the cause, as they continue to struggle offensively. For all of the shade I have thrown toward Ervin Santana this season, he’s not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. Since the start of last year, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.311 0.275 0.140 26.1% 4.0% 22.9% 41.3% OF $3,500 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.375 0.322 0.128 29.9% 8.3% 20.8% 35.9% 2B $2,200 2B $2,400 N/A N/A
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.328 0.308 0.215 38.5% 9.2% 28.6% 38.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.350 0.322 0.188 31.9% 10.1% 12.0% 41.0% 3B $2,500 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.365 0.291 0.220 32.1% 3.6% 18.8% 44.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.343 0.304 0.156 28.5% 7.7% 19.5% 47.0% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.276 0.276 0.212 34.7% 4.4% 32.7% 42.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.309 0.271 0.246 34.5% 5.4% 29.7% 36.2% C $2,200 C $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Luis Perdomo RIGHT 0.219 0.167 0.227 12.5% 4.0% 32.0% 57.1% P $7,500 P $6,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Baltimore
kansascitymlb Jason Vargas baltimoremlb Jeremy Hellickson
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-120 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.317 28.9% 5.5% 12.7% 38.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.352 29.0% 9.0% 16.1% 31.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.294 30.9% 6.7% 19.3% 37.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.311 27.3% 3.5% 18.9% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.96 2.25 23.4% 6.4% 36.4% 33.3% 15.2%
2017 20 4.79 3.00 17.4% 6.5% 37.7% 30.2% 18.2%
L30 5 5.72 5.61 13.8% 10.3% 39.1% 35.2% 14.8%

Vargas is a pitcher that I refuse to play in DFS until one of two things changes – he either needs to be priced correctly (he’s currently over-priced across the industry) or he needs to flash some of that early-season form. Until then, he will continue to be an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments. He isn’t nearly as talented as his 3.00 ERA suggests and we have seen regression hit hard in his last five starts. During that stretch, he has a 5.61 ERA with a walk rate of 10% and a hard contact rate of 35%. The Orioles are a team that we can usually pick on with left-handed pitchers, but I see this as a rare opportunity to play the O’s against a southpaw.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road in a game that features an over/under of 10.0 runs, Vargas is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 20 5.29 4.73 13.8% 6.4% 35.1% 31.3% 18.1%
L30 4 4.18 6.04 22.0% 5.5% 29.7% 43.9% 10.6%

I know that Ubaldo Jimenez is bad, but is Hellickson really that much better? They are a long shot to make the playoffs at this point and making a lateral move isn’t going to move the needle as much as Orioles’ fans may have hoped. Hellickson is having a down year overall, posting a 5.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He now has to pitch in the American League East, which is arguably the toughest division in baseball for pitchers. There are a lot of reasons to dislike Hellickson tonight and the matchup doesn’t help his cause. The Royals have a low strikeout rate and they have been hitting the ball well since the All-Star break.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson was an easy fade in the National League and remains an easy fade now that he’s in the American League.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

This is one of those games where you can make a case to play either offense. We have two subpar pitchers on the mound and the teams are squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Royals may not have the best season-long numbers against right-handed pitching, but they have really stepped up to the plate (see what I did there) since the All-Star break. In terms of splits, Jeremy Hellickson is significantly worse against lefties (.352 xwOBA) than he is against righties (.311 xwOBA), which brings Melky Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas into play. The issue here is that outside of Cabrera, the Royals’ hitters are priced up across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.338 0.317 0.174 31.7% 4.1% 12.7% 37.6% 2B $3,500 2B $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.342 0.320 0.138 30.3% 8.8% 18.6% 45.7% OF $3,800 OF $5,400 CF $10,500
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.323 0.339 0.118 31.3% 6.4% 10.8% 51.9% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.377 0.374 0.189 32.9% 9.7% 17.4% 50.0% 1B $3,700 1B $5,500 1B $10,800
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.365 0.355 0.254 40.3% 3.5% 20.0% 30.4% C $3,200 C $4,200 C $8,100
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.371 0.351 0.304 36.2% 4.9% 16.3% 30.8% 3B $3,500 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.270 0.301 0.184 33.9% 9.3% 33.2% 33.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.238 0.244 0.079 26.3% 1.7% 19.1% 40.4% SS $2,400 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.263 0.301 0.123 31.4% 8.3% 22.0% 40.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200

Elite Plays – Melky Cabrera (FD)

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Melky Cabrera (DK), Eric Hosmer (FD), Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles may not have the best season-long numbers against left-handed pitching, but when comparing their actual wOBA to their expected wOBA, we can see that they have been quite unlucky. The projected lineup below has a combined .314 wOBA, but a combined .328 xwOBA. Basically, we should eventually expect the results to come, specifically for Manny Machado and Trey Mancini. The Orioles are cheap enough on DraftKings that I am going to consider a full stack. I have no issues in a matchup against Jason Vargas, who has struggled against right-handed hitters and who has been in his worst form of the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.321 0.310 0.186 30.8% 6.3% 22.3% 37.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.315 0.388 0.214 50.6% 8.8% 18.4% 43.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.385 0.386 0.296 40.5% 8.3% 22.9% 43.2% 2B $4,000 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
4 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.289 0.331 0.155 33.8% 3.7% 24.1% 49.4% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.314 0.335 0.163 34.0% 10.1% 38.4% 34.0% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.336 0.345 0.125 42.2% 4.5% 28.4% 33.3% C $3,100 C $4,000 C $7,800
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.318 0.326 0.135 36.7% 9.1% 29.3% 50.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.302 0.278 0.100 29.7% 6.1% 18.4% 33.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 RF $5,600
9 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.245 0.253 0.121 19.1% 12.8% 33.3% 61.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 LF $6,000

Elite Plays – Adam Jones (DK), Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones (FD & FDRFT), Trey Mancini, Welington Castilo, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Robert Stephenson pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-152 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.419 0.398 43.4% 13.3% 19.3% 31.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.288 25.1% 6.8% 13.2% 48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.389 0.341 36.2% 12.7% 19.1% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.334 34.7% 7.1% 19.5% 49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robert Stephenson
robert-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 5.12 6.08 18.2% 11.2% 34.5% 37.9% 17.2%
2017 2 5.24 7.86 20.1% 14.8% 40.2% 40.9% 11.8%
L30 2 6.78 7.45 14.6% 18.8% 50.0% 43.8% 6.3%

Stephenson has not fared well at the major league level. He struggled in his eight starts last season and he has been even worse in his two starts this season. PNC Park generally considered a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so it’s always alarming to see an over/under of nine runs in Pittsburgh. That’s a big red flag for both starters. It’s not like we were going to roster Stephenson anyway, who has had a 12% walk rate and a 39% hard contact rate in his first ten major league starts.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Stephenson in all formats.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 15 4.62 4.53 16.3% 6.8% 49.5% 29.7% 24.8%
L30 5 4.64 3.86 13.9% 8.2% 62.2% 25.3% 26.3%

Williams has a decent ground ball rate and he has induced a lot of soft and medium contact this season, but that hasn’t translated into anything special. In 15 starts, he owns a 4.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. There is more risk than upside here, especially in a matchup against the low-strikeout Reds. With this game being included in the 12-game slate, we can certainly find better options at pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds made quick work of Jameson Taillon last night. He was one of the many top-notch pitchers that got shelled in what ended up being one of the strangest slates of the season. While this isn’t the most hitter-friendly ballpark around, the Reds draw a decent matchup tonight against Trevor Williams. Since the start of last season, Williams has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I would caution against going overboard with the lefties though, as Williams has held batters from the left side of the plate to a .288 xwOBA and a 25% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.300 0.266 0.081 17.9% 8.9% 20.3% 45.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.339 0.380 0.077 45.5% 23.5% 11.8% 45.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.423 0.262 36.2% 17.2% 11.7% 36.2% 1B $4,100 1B $5,100 1B $10,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.337 0.289 0.247 34.2% 5.1% 27.7% 30.7% OF $3,700 OF $5,000 IF/OF $9,600
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.431 0.359 0.312 41.5% 6.3% 20.7% 41.1% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.341 0.336 0.193 29.3% 11.0% 23.2% 43.9% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.255 0.268 0.077 19.7% 1.8% 14.3% 42.9% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.311 0.325 0.128 34.6% 7.5% 14.9% 43.3% C $2,000 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Robert Stephenson RIGHT 0.438 0.173 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $4,300 P $8,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The sample size is still small (ten starts), but Robert Stephenson hasn’t had any success against left or right-handed hitters in his major league career. He has allowed a .340+ xwOBA, a 36%+ hard contact rate, and a 13%+ walk rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The Pirates aren’t a team that we usually like to stack at home, given the fact that they lack home run upside and play in a pitcher’s park, but they are at least somewhat intriguing tonight. They should be able to draw walks and we know that they can steal bases with the speed at the top of their lineup with Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, and Adam Frazier.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.320 0.280 0.096 23.6% 4.9% 23.5% 51.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.331 0.326 0.138 32.4% 5.1% 15.8% 35.7% 2B $3,100 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.349 0.357 0.179 34.3% 10.5% 17.4% 41.1% OF $4,300 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.341 0.333 0.231 34.5% 10.2% 21.3% 51.2% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.346 0.106 30.3% 12.1% 20.1% 55.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.314 0.332 0.113 29.7% 8.5% 11.6% 49.0% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.337 0.341 0.137 33.3% 10.5% 20.0% 48.6% C $2,500 C $2,600 C $5,200
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.326 0.315 0.151 27.2% 10.5% 14.9% 45.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.094 0.181 0.000 10.5% 3.4% 31.0% 56.3% P $6,600 P $5,700 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious