MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-15 01:38:36

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Oakland at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland			Miami
	Daniel Gossett				Edinson Volquez
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	MIA-157				9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.366	35.4%	11.3%	17.4%	46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.313	28.0%	8.1%	18.5%	55.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	SIERA	ERA	BB%	GB%	SC%
Daniel Gossett
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:	$6,100	Salary:	$4,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:	28 of 30	Salary Rank:	28 of 30	Salary Rank:	of 30

Gossett was never a major pitching prospect, but he seems to improve each and every year in the minors. In 11 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.76 FIP with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 7%. He opens his major league career as a sizable underdog against the Marlins. Seeing as how this game isn’t included in the early slates on FanDuel or DraftKings, he is an easy fade in the all-day slate since we have 30 pitchers to choose from.

Quick Breakdown: Take a wait and see approach with Gossett.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Edinson Volquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	34	4.72	5.37	16.3%	8.9%	51.2%	31.7%	19.5%
	2017	12	4.60	3.41	22.8%	12.3%	48.6%	32.4%	19.8%

Volquez backed up his no-hitter with another solid outing against the Pirates. In his last two starts combined, he has struck out 18 batters while allowing three hits and zero earned runs. Obviously, this isn’t sustainable, but maybe he’s found something in his mechanics recently. He draws a decent matchup against the A’s, who strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching, but he’s only available in the all-day slate. With 30 pitchers taking the mound today, we can find a better one to target.

Quick Breakdown: Volquez would be a nice play in the early slate, but unfortunately, this game isn’t included.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

If the A’s were facing Edinson Volquez a few starts ago, we would be looking to exploit this matchup. We obviously shouldn’t expect Volquez to have this type of success moving forward, but pitchers can be streaky. As far as the splits go, Volquez allowed a .366 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons, which brings Jaycob Brugman, Jed Lowrie, and Yonder Alonso into the fold as secondary plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jaycob Brugman	LEFT	0.321		0.000	38.5%	11.1%	16.7%	30.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
2	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.331	0.373	0.266	34.4%	6.7%	29.8%	37.5%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.326	0.324	0.138	32.8%	7.9%	16.5%	36.1%	2B	$2,400	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.350	0.369	0.281	40.1%	7.1%	29.0%	42.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.341	0.371	0.173	35.2%	10.0%	16.1%	39.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.337	0.332	0.208	34.1%	4.1%	24.6%	39.9%	1B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.312	0.318	0.164	27.6%	6.9%	15.6%	30.4%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.343	0.370	0.208	36.8%	17.9%	22.3%	41.3%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Daniel Gossett	RIGHT								P	$6,100	P	$4,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jaycob Brugman, Jed Lowrie, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins get to face a rookie pitcher that is making his major league debut. These situations are always difficult to predict, but more often than not, we want to be on the hitting side of these matchups. Since this game is only included in the all-day slate, I wouldn’t go overboard on my Marlins’ exposure, but Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna are all viable secondary plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.301	0.244	0.078	18.6%	5.6%	15.4%	57.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.338	0.336	0.228	37.2%	9.7%	28.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.370	0.385	0.189	39.5%	12.0%	19.5%	54.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.342	0.335	0.189	36.7%	7.5%	19.9%	46.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.335	0.336	0.152	29.9%	7.8%	19.8%	37.5%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.341	0.308	0.126	30.7%	5.3%	16.6%	49.9%	C	$3,300	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Moore	RIGHT	0.373	0.317	0.357	37.5%	2.2%	26.7%	37.5%	OF	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.299	0.317	0.165	43.4%	4.0%	20.0%	45.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Edinson Volquez	RIGHT	0.167	0.133	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	30.4%	71.4%	P	$8,100	P	$8,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								San Diego
			Amir Garrett							Jhoulys Chacin
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SD -125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.327	34.6%	2.8%	25.0%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.347	35.5%	9.5%	13.0%	51.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.383	0.363	40.3%	12.1%	15.9%	40.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.293	26.9%	7.7%	25.3%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Amir Garrett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	10	5.14	7.40	17.4%	10.6%	41.7%	39.4%	12.3%

This is the first of three games that are included in the early-only slate. The theme of today’s slates seems to be a lack of pitching. Garrett got off to a quick start this season, but has been one of the most hittable in baseball over the last six weeks. Overall, he owns a 5.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 10%. We typically love targeting pitchers against the Padres, but there is more risk than potential reward with Garrett.

Quick Breakdown: Even in a three game slate, Garrett will not be making his way into any of my lineups.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jhoulys Chacin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	22	4.38	4.81	18.8%	8.7%	48.4%	31.6%	19.0%
	2017	13	4.24	5.35	20.3%	8.2%	52.3%	30.9%	18.9%

Chacin wouldn’t be in play in a full slate, but in a three-game slate, we don’t have many options to work with. He gets to pitch at home in a good ballpark and he gets to face a Reds’ lineup that should have more right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, Chacin has a 27% hard contact rate and a 25% strikeout rate against righties. He’s also listed as a small favorite here.

Quick Breakdown: Chacin is in play thanks to a lack of pitching options in the early slate. He’s right there with Tanner Roark as the number two option behind Johnny Cueto.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds see a significantly negative ballpark shift playing in Petco Park. Their offense has struggled so far in this series and they have a low implied run total again tonight. Jhoulys Chacin is in play as an SP2 in this slate, but if you aren’t playing him, you can look at the lefties in the Reds’ lineup. Over the last two seasons, Chacin has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.300	0.254	0.076	18.7%	9.0%	20.2%	47.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.341	0.306	0.183	29.5%	9.4%	17.0%	39.2%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.423	0.437	0.253	39.8%	17.4%	14.3%	37.5%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.333	0.329	0.254	36.7%	5.8%	26.9%	33.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.318	0.316	0.156	33.4%	8.2%	23.6%	41.0%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.343	0.336	0.216	36.0%	7.7%	21.3%	49.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.303	0.295	0.080	19.2%	1.8%	13.9%	43.6%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.315	0.333	0.127	31.3%	9.1%	14.1%	45.1%	C	$2,500	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Amir Garrett	LEFT	0.095	0.130	0.077	0.0%	0.0%	35.7%	40.0%	P	$6,900	P	$4,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

The Padres’ offense has shown some signs of life in this series and draw an exploitable matchup against Amir Garrett. He hasn’t been particularly great against lefties this season, but his real struggles have come against right-handed hitters, allowing a .363 xwOBA and a massive 40% hard contact rate. Jose Pirela, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe all hit southpaws well and are all cheap across the industry. If you want to do a full Padres’ stack, Yangervis Solarte and Austin Hedges are also worth a look.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.407	0.352	0.105	40.0%	13.6%	18.2%	46.7%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.299	0.301	0.112	26.7%	8.2%	13.5%	44.3%	3B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.342	0.349	0.188	43.8%	11.1%	27.1%	41.6%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.438	0.388	0.313	32.8%	14.1%	11.5%	36.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.256	0.244	0.111	34.0%	4.5%	24.2%	34.0%	C	$2,600	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.301	0.241	0.146	31.0%	5.7%	37.7%	56.0%	2B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Szczur	RIGHT	0.278	0.259	0.158	20.8%	9.4%	22.6%	50.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.288	0.279	0.101	26.3%	7.3%	18.2%	41.8%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Jhoulys Chacin	RIGHT	0.272	0.232	0.091	20.0%	0.0%	23.1%	0.0%	P	$7,000	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jose Pirela, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Austin Hedges

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								San Francisco
			Jason Hammel							Johnny Cueto
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -175							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.339	32.9%	10.1%	20.0%	37.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.320	32.5%	5.2%	23.1%	45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.325	32.1%	5.7%	19.8%	42.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.277	0.285	26.9%	5.7%	22.5%	48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jason Hammel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	4.28	3.83	20.8%	7.7%	42.1%	32.5%	18.5%
	2017	12	4.89	5.43	17.6%	7.9%	35.4%	32.4%	16.9%

Hammel draws a near perfect matchup for a right-handed pitcher. He gets to play in a National League ballpark, he is facing a powerless Giants’ offense, and he gets to play in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. The problem is that he is still Jason Hammel. His numbers are down across the board this season and he is getting no love from the oddsmakers as a large underdog against Johnny Cueto. If I had to rank the six pitchers in this slate, Hammel would be fourth or fifth, which is less than ideal.

Quick Breakdown: Even in this ballpark and in this matchup, Hammel can be avoided.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Johnny Cueto
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	32	3.59	2.79	22.5%	5.1%	50.2%	27.2%	19.4%
	2017	13	3.86	4.33	23.6%	6.4%	40.2%	36.4%	13.4%

Cueto is the clear choice at pitcher in the early slate. If you are playing on a single pitcher site like FanDuel, the choice at pitcher is simple. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site like DraftKings or FantasyDraft, you will have your work cut out for you choosing an SP2. The Royals don’t hit right-handed pitching well and Cueto gets to face them at home without the use of a DH. He is head and shoulders above the other options in the early-only slate.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t get cute in this early slate. Play Cueto and move on.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have a low implied run total today against Johnny Cueto. Not only does he hold both left and right-handed hitters in check, but they have to face him in AT&T Park, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. The Astros can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.292	0.291	0.118	31.9%	4.9%	18.6%	41.9%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.360	0.362	0.231	35.5%	8.3%	27.5%	38.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.312	0.305	0.107	29.3%	7.3%	21.0%	49.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.352	0.354	0.170	34.9%	9.4%	18.6%	56.3%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.364	0.368	0.277	35.7%	6.6%	15.0%	36.2%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.320	0.306	0.198	37.4%	3.4%	20.4%	34.0%	C	$3,400	C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.290	0.321	0.145	35.9%	10.2%	26.1%	40.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.256	0.248	0.078	22.7%	3.4%	16.8%	46.8%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Jason Hammel	RIGHT	0.237	0.213	0.059	17.7%	1.9%	34.0%	54.8%	P	$6,700	P	$7,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

The Giants have really struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but at least they have all of their pieces healthy. They should be able to improve their numbers at the plate moving forward, but are still an offense that lacks firepower. The one plus here is that they get to face Jason Hammel, who has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate. If they can get to Hammel, there is a chance they could see Chris Young as the long reliever and we all know how bad he is against left-handed hitters. It’s not something that I would build my lineups around, but it could be an added bonus for the likes of Denard Span, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.333	0.339	0.146	26.9%	8.0%	11.7%	47.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.324	0.289	0.126	25.6%	4.7%	13.7%	52.4%	3B	$4,200	3B/OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.374	0.389	0.211	38.1%	16.7%	22.1%	26.1%	1B	$3,900	1B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.342	0.370	0.138	34.1%	9.4%	10.6%	49.0%	C	$4,000	1B/C	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.321	0.314	0.113	28.0%	8.3%	22.0%	59.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.315	0.331	0.167	34.4%	9.0%	18.8%	44.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.318	0.337	0.164	26.8%	9.7%	7.9%	44.9%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.347	0.332	0.150	18.8%	8.3%	16.7%	75.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.096	0.160	0.000	6.1%	4.4%	23.5%	69.7%	P	$9,800	P	$11,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Julio Teheran							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-160							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.343	35.0%	10.4%	14.8%	34.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.296	0.321	28.9%	10.2%	18.3%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.259	0.273	30.3%	3.1%	25.8%	41.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.282	0.297	21.5%	6.5%	21.3%	54.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	3.93	3.21	22.0%	5.4%	39.1%	33.1%	17.7%
	2017	13	5.19	5.08	16.7%	9.6%	34.9%	31.6%	22.7%

Teheran looks like a completely different pitcher this season. It could be the fact that SunTrust Park is now one of the best ballparks in baseball for left-handed hitters, but that doesn’t explain his high walk rate and low strikeout rate. At this point, we should be avoiding Teheran in both cash games and tournaments. The Nationals may not have a ton of lefties in their lineup, but they do have Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Teheran in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	13	4.44	3.87	19.1%	7.5%	45.1%	26.9%	14.5%

Roark is not a pitcher that I like to target in full slates. He’s one of those guys that is a better pitcher in real baseball than he is in fantasy baseball. He has a below-average strikeout rate, but gets by with a low hard contact rate. He also benefits from making half of his starts in this ballpark. With so few options in the early slate, Roark is worth a look as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. I don’t want to target right-handed pitchers against the Braves right now, but we really don’t have many choices.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is viable as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, but Johnny Cueto is the clear number one in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have been hitting the ball well recently and haven’t skipped a beat since Freddie Freeman went down with his injury. They are still only ranked 21st in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but they’ve had a few batters that we’ve been able to target on a regular basis. Matt Adams headlines that list of targets, as he has a .236 ISO and a 38% hard contact rate against righties in the last two seasons. He’s really the only hitter that I will be actively targeting against Tanner Roark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.316	0.297	0.104	26.4%	8.5%	13.6%	42.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.325	0.309	0.126	28.3%	3.3%	12.3%	47.6%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.339	0.359	0.137	33.8%	11.5%	16.4%	42.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.340	0.352	0.217	36.4%	5.0%	23.8%	40.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.345	0.339	0.236	37.8%	8.1%	25.6%	33.6%	1B	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.364	0.349	0.149	42.5%	7.9%	25.2%	42.5%	C	$3,100	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Rio Ruiz	LEFT	0.257	0.315	0.103	34.7%	9.2%	25.0%	61.2%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.274	0.298	0.100	31.6%	10.0%	24.0%	49.1%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.150	0.187	0.016	11.3%	0.0%	27.4%	48.7%	P	$8,200	P	$6,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Matt Adams (FD)

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams (DK), Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

I don’t want to bury the lead, so let’s start with Bryce Harper BvP against Julio Teheran. In his career, he is 15-for-33 with seven home runs and three doubles. That works out to be a .678 wOBA. It makes sense with Teheran’s struggles with lefties, but those are some insane BvP numbers. Harper is obviously an elite play here and the same can be said about Brian Goodwin (if he’s batting second), Daniel Murphy, and Matt Wieters. If you want to complete the stack, I certainly don’t mind including Trea Turner and/or Ryan Zimmerman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.388	0.333	0.235	31.2%	4.7%	18.1%	46.5%	SS	$4,600	SS	$5,600	N/A	N/A
2	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.310	0.237	0.202	30.8%	5.3%	26.3%	42.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.381	0.394	0.245	35.3%	18.7%	15.9%	40.0%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.330	0.335	0.193	35.6%	5.6%	23.1%	45.2%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.410	0.398	0.242	38.3%	6.4%	9.0%	35.5%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.341	0.346	0.189	35.0%	9.6%	17.5%	37.0%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.308	0.320	0.160	33.2%	6.6%	17.8%	37.3%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.280	0.273	0.160	31.5%	5.4%	31.6%	42.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.175	0.175	0.015	8.9%	6.1%	25.6%	59.1%	P	$9,000	P	$8,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, Daniel Murphy, Matt Wieters

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								Philadelphia
			Brian Johnson							Jeremy Hellickson
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-120							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.160	0.420	37.5%	0.0%	27.3%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.347	27.8%	8.7%	15.0%	32.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.350	0.366	33.3%	5.9%	19.1%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.314	26.0%	3.7%	19.4%	45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brian Johnson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30

	2017	3	4.22	3.44	20.3%	5.1%	37.3%	33.9%	23.7%

If you were hoping for good pitching options in the main slate, think again. We have plenty of terrible options to choose from. We’ll start with Brian Johnson, who is facing the Phillies in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies may not be a great offense, but their two through seven batters all hit left-handed pitching very well. This is expected to be a high scoring game and it’s hard for me to target pitchers in this park.

Quick Breakdown: Johnson is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2016	32	4.15	3.71	20.0%	5.8%	40.7%	25.9%	20.8%
	2017	13	5.66	4.50	10.7%	6.5%	35.7%	28.9%	20.1%

Hellickson currently has a 5.66 SIERA and an 11% strikeout rate. I could end the analysis there. He doesn’t have nearly enough upside to warrant consideration, regardless of who he is facing. Once you add in the fact that he is facing the Red Sox in a home run-friendly ballpark, he becomes one of the easiest fades on the board.

Quick Breakdown: There is always more risk than potential reward with Hellickson, especially against the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have been scoring runs in favorable matchups, but they haven’t had that breakout performance that really breaks the slate in a long time. Maybe a matchup against an extreme fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark can do the trick. Hellickson doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact, but with such a low strikeout rate, the Red Sox should be able to string together hits and you never know what will happen in this ballpark. A Red Sox stack is certainly viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.380	0.334	0.205	34.2%	8.5%	10.6%	42.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.351	0.328	0.124	32.3%	7.9%	9.5%	50.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.345	0.295	0.142	29.8%	7.3%	16.9%	47.7%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.323	0.359	0.199	39.5%	8.9%	22.9%	39.4%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
5	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.353	0.332	0.199	37.2%	8.3%	15.6%	35.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,200
6	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.344	0.344	0.185	37.3%	9.5%	19.4%	48.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.359	0.360	0.237	37.9%	11.4%	21.4%	45.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
8	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.297	0.225	0.043	25.8%	10.5%	29.5%	60.7%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$2,800	2B	$5,400
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.304	0.280	0.138	34.3%	6.3%	25.6%	43.4%	C	$2,100	C	$2,500	C	$4,800

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies will fly under the radar tonight for two reasons. First, they are the Phillies and nobody every plays the Phillies. And second, there are so many good offenses in this slate that they won’t make the final cut for most people making a few lineups. I don’t see any of their hitters as must plays, but Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp, and Daniel Nava all hit southpaws well. The Phillies are a sneaky stack that you can target in large field tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.298	0.287	0.099	25.5%	8.5%	24.1%	55.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.315	0.365	0.077	32.1%	12.8%	17.9%	62.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.340	0.335	0.220	33.3%	10.7%	18.4%	50.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.354	0.367	0.295	31.8%	9.0%	21.9%	38.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.331	0.347	0.208	36.7%	6.6%	15.3%	46.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,600	3B	$5,100
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.413	0.322	0.278	35.1%	9.2%	26.1%	49.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
7	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.362	0.391	0.048	31.3%	22.2%	18.5%	62.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.236	0.257	0.115	24.9%	1.9%	17.7%	40.7%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.200	0.202	0.000	7.1%	4.2%	37.5%	54.5%	P	$6,500	P	$5,000	P	$9,900

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Oakland at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jaycob Brugman, Jed Lowrie, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Pirela, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Austin Hedges

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Adams (FD)

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams (DK), Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, Daniel Murphy, Matt Wieters

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp, Daniel Nava

Stackability – YELLOW

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