MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-15 03:14:23

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Tampa Bay					Toronto
			Alex Cobb					Marco Estrada
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -175					8.5
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.495	2	23.5%	0.0%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.273	24	27.9%	19.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.239	0	31.6%	28.6%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.292	21	31.7%	20.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Alex Cobb
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:
					FPPG:		21.0	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		58.9	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	2	86.5	3.34	4.09	17.8%	2.2%	8.7%	61.1%	25.0%	27.8%
2016	2	86.5	3.34	4.09	17.8%	2.2%	8.7%	61.1%	25.0%	27.8%

Home:—ERA: 3.60 — K%: 35.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.246
Away:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 4.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.407

This game is not included on any slates on DraftKings and only on the all-day slate on FanDuel, so most of our loyal Grind Down readers can scroll down to the next game. Cobb looked sharp in his first start since coming back from injury, but was knocked around by the Yankees in his last outing. He has yet to see a full complement of pitches and given the fact that the season is almost over, the Rays might as well take it easy with Cobb. Against the Blue Jays in Toronto on a potential pitch count, Cobb can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
					FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		67.5	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	83.2	5.12	7.71	16.5%	8.3%	9.4%	30.4%	46.8%	34.6%
2016	25	97.4	4.39	3.68	22.2%	8.8%	10.6%	33.6%	47.1%	32.5%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Home:—ERA: 3.24 — K%: 19.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away:—ERA: 3.52 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280

Estrada has not been in good form in his last five starts, posting a 5.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.5%. His hard contact rate is also up during that stretch, which can be very troublesome for an elite fly ball pitcher like himself. While the recent form is a concern, he is a large favorite at home against a strikeout-prone Rays’ offense. In 2016, the Rays have the fourth highest team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays come into the game with the eighth lowest run projection on the board. While they do strikeout at a high rate, they also have some sneaky firepower against right-handed pitching, ranking fourth in team ISO on the season. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and Marco Estrada has really struggled in his last five starts.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (16 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.339 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.9% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.20 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (23 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.337	0.143	31.5%	0.454	2B	$3,400
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.323	0.173	27.8%	0.480	OF	$3,500
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.329	0.198	33.4%	0.155	3B	$3,400
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.347	0.229	34.7%	0.230	SS	$3,200
5	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.322	0.209	35.1%	0.317	2B	$2,900
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.349	0.264	34.0%	0.312	OF	$3,100
7	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.309	0.168	32.1%	0.347	OF	$3,100
8	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.257	0.099	22.3%	0.110	SS	$2,000
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.258	0.100	22.8%	0.332	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.176	30.4%	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays have been a top ten offense against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest run projection on the board, as they square off against Alex Cobb. It’s hard to tell where Cobb is at physically, as this is only his third start in the last two years. I’ll side with Vegas on this one and heavily target the Blue Jays’ offense.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.334 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.07 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.84 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.358	0.178	28.5%	0.316	2B	$3,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.393	0.262	37.9%	0.280	3B	$4,100
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.391	0.289	36.7%	0.362	1B	$4,100
4	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.376	0.264	37.0%	0.314	OF	$3,600
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.327	0.197	30.6%	0.278	C	$3,000
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.328	0.180	34.8%	0.341	SS	$2,900
7	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.333	0.196	37.0%	0.315	OF	$3,200
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.302	0.124	25.7%	0.284	OF	$2,500
9	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.290	0.148	32.0%	0.277	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.204	33.4%	0.307	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Chicago Cubs					St. Louis
			Jon Lester					Carlos Martinez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -132					7.5
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.272	7	34.9%	27.9%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.327	19	32.2%	19.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.282	29	26.5%	24.0%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.257	6	23.4%	25.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$11,100
					FPPG:		37.4	FPPG:		20.6
					Pitcher Rating:		86.9	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	104.2	3.58	0.78	25.4%	6.4%	9.8%	41.0%	32.5%	27.9%
2016	28	98.3	3.68	2.51	24.7%	6.8%	10.3%	45.2%	33.3%	27.6%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Home:—ERA: 2.89 — K%: 25.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280
Away:—ERA: 3.03 — K%: 24.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278

Lester is having another terrific season for the Cubs. In 28 starts, he has a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.7% and a walk rate of only 6.8%. He induces a lot of ground balls and he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. The only knock on him is that he doesn’t hold runners well (whether that’s from a lack of effort is an argument in and of itself). He draws a decent matchup against the Cardinals, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. While I don’t mind the play, you might as well spend up on Madison Bumgarner in the early slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Carlos Martinez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		32.4	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		80.9	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.62	1.85	23.7%	8.9%	10.7%	64.4%	24.1%	22.5%
2016	27	96.9	4.09	3.05	20.4%	8.8%	8.9%	57.2%	25.7%	28.4%
2015	29	98.1	3.44	3.01	24.4%	8.3%	10.5%	54.5%	25.5%	27.6%

Home:—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309
Away:—ERA: 2.45 — K%: 24.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276

Martinez didn’t look great in his last start against the Brewers (one strikeout), but he has otherwise been in good form recently. The main issue today is his matchup against the Cubs, who are ranked at or above the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. As an underdog at home, Martinez is a better GPP play than a cash game option.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Even though the Cubs are favored, they have one of the lowest run projections of the eight teams playing in the early-only slate. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Carlos Martinez and they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. You can give the left-handed hitters in this lineup a look, but I won’t be actively targeting the Cubs in cash games.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.98 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.99 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.332	0.164	27.6%	0.303	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.385	0.234	40.2%	0.326	3B	$3,900	3B/OF	$4,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.394	0.265	36.6%	0.363	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,800
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.337	0.163	31.0%	0.219	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,700
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.322	0.157	29.6%	0.354	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.319	0.132	29.1%	0.172	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,500
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.288	0.136	26.7%	0.302	SS	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,100
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.258	0.126	31.3%	0.230	C	$2,200	C	$2,600
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.099	0.011	21.2%	0.000	P	$10,000	P	$11,100
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.154	30.4%	0.252	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals may not have the best numbers against left-handed pitching, but they still average the fifth most runs per game on the season. The problem isn’t the handedness of the pitcher, it is the actual pitcher himself. In the last two seasons, Jon Lester has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (20 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.335 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.0% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.56 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.341	0.191	30.4%	0.324	2B	$3,400	2B/3B	$3,500
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.336	0.165	30.3%		SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.409	0.255	32.5%	0.357	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
4	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.318	0.161	33.5%	0.081	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$2,500
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.296	0.077	29.4%	0.416	C	$2,800	C	$2,900
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.299	0.188	30.2%	0.326	SS	$2,500	3B	$2,500
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.324	0.152	36.6%	0.346	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$2,700
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.335	0.245	32.7%	0.364	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,100
9	Carlos Martinez	RIGHT	0.081	0.000	26.3%	0.125	P	$9,500	P	$9,200
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.159	31.3%	0.292	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
San Diego					San Francisco
			Luis Perdomo					Madison Bumgarner
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -250					7.5
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.365	12	39.3%	13.8%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.247	6	26.3%	33.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.367	6	29.3%	18.3%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.273	38	30.1%	26.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Luis Perdomo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		15.3	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		45.9	Pitcher Rank:		26
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.69	3.41	16.4%	5.2%	6.3%	60.2%	18.4%	39.8%
2016	17	124.8	4.05	5.89	16.2%	7.5%	8.8%	59.1%	20.9%	34.1%

Home:—ERA: 6.41 — K%: 13.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.378
Away:—ERA: 5.60 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.359

Perdomo is a talented young pitcher that needs to develop a higher strikeout rate if we are going to pay attention to him in DFS. Depsite inducing an elite ground ball rate, he has a hard contact rate of 34.1% this season. Those two statistics typically have a negative correlation, but not for Perdomo. He draws a fairly difficult matchup today against the Giants and he has to face them in San Francisco. To make matters worse, Madison Bumgarner is pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$13,400
					FPPG:		39.6	FPPG:		22.7
					Pitcher Rating:		96.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	6	100.8	3.19	4.50	29.8%	6.6%	11.2%	42.6%	40.4%	28.4%
2016	30	105.4	3.34	2.61	28.1%	6.2%	11.4%	38.8%	41.0%	31.4%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Home:—ERA: 1.93 — K%: 29.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.238
Away:—ERA: 3.76 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300

Bumgarner is always one of my favorite pitching targets, especially at home. In the last two seasons, he has a 1.93 ERA, a 29.4% strikeout rate, and he has held batters to a .238 wOBA at home. He draws the best matchup in all of baseball, as he gets to face the strikeout-happy Padres. In addition to the high strikeout rate, the Padres are also ranked dead last in team wOBA over the last month of play. We don’t need to overthink this one – plug Bumgarner in as your starting pitcher in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are not a team that I have been targeting recently. They have been ice cold at the plate and they strikeout more than any team in baseball. They come into today’s game with the lowest run projection of the 30 teams in action, which comes as no surprise given their matchup. In the last two seasons, Madison Bumgarner has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.321 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.268 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.167 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.4% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.95 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.89 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.312	0.056	22.8%	0.259	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
2	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.273	0.169	36.5%	0.274	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,000
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.363	0.191	39.1%	0.258	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.309	0.158	29.9%	0.403	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,500
5	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.325	0.152	39.0%	0.346	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,800
6	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.311	0.142	38.2%	0.260	C	$2,400	C	$2,500
7	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.334	0.306	50.0%	0.245	2B	$3,000	2B	$2,900
8	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.264	0.052	20.5%	0.251	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,300
9	Luis Perdomo	RIGHT	0.219	0.000	0.0%	0.173	P	$6,400	P	$5,500
	Team Averages	—	0.301	0.136	30.7%	0.274	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

The Giants have not been great offensively this season, but they make good contact and come into today’s game with the seventh highest team total on the board. Even though Luis Perdomo is an elite ground ball pitcher, he still gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .365+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (16 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.322 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.5% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.61 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.345	0.142	25.9%	0.144	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
2	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.297	0.109	22.8%	0.261	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.349	0.141	34.3%	0.245	C	$3,300	C	$3,700
4	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.337	0.205	33.0%	0.224	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,700
5	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.356	0.165	31.9%	0.514	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
6	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.363	0.192	39.2%	0.322	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,500
7	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.348	0.166	29.9%	0.299	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800
8	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.330	0.133	25.4%	0.308	3B	$3,200	3B/SS	$4,000
9	Madison Bumgarner	LEFT	0.271	0.159	30.3%	0.276	P	$10,700	P	$13,400
	Team Averages	—	0.333	0.157	30.3%	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
LA Dodgers					NY Yankees
			Clayton Kershaw					Michael Pineda
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -169					7.5
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.211	5	28.9%	39.6%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.334	18	32.4%	25.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.228	17	26.1%	31.7%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.326	27	31.0%	24.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Clayton Kershaw
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$12,700
					FPPG:		46.1	FPPG:		27.8
					Pitcher Rating:		92.1	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	1	66.0	1.86	6.00	35.7%	0.0%	13.6%	44.4%	22.2%	33.3%
2016	17	102.2	2.28	1.89	33.0%	2.0%	16.0%	49.7%	28.8%	29.3%
2015	33	102.8	2.24	2.13	33.8%	4.7%	15.9%	50.0%	28.2%	25.3%

Home:—ERA: 1.55 — K%: 35.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.201
Away:—ERA: 2.55 — K%: 31.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.248

In his first start in two and a half months, Kershaw gave up two runs while striking out five batters in only three innings of work against the Marlins. He only threw 66 pitches in that game and we can expect the Dodgers to continue to ease him back in terms of a pitch count. With potential rust and a potential pitch count, I am going to be giving him a couple of starts before I start targeting him in DFS. For the same price, I would much rather target Madison Bumgarner.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Michael Pineda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		29.1	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		72.7	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	83.6	3.17	5.04	25.5%	5.7%	16.0%	52.8%	20.8%	37.5%
2016	28	94.8	3.42	5.07	26.6%	6.5%	14.3%	46.0%	31.4%	33.3%
2015	27	94.4	3.09	4.37	23.4%	3.1%	11.9%	48.2%	29.9%	30.1%

Home:—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 25.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away:—ERA: 4.86 — K%: 23.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Pineda continues to have good peripheral stats, but he continues to have a high ERA. In his last five starts, he has a 3.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. I have been burned by Pineda more times than I’d like to admit and I won’t be going back to the well today against the Dodgers. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked seventh in team wOBA and eighth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching well this season and they see a massive ballpark boost playing in Yankee Stadium (especially the left-handed hitters). Their team total may not look that appealing, but Michael Pineda has allowed a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .326 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (7 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.327 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.178 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.306	0.140	36.8%	0.178	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.359	0.179	27.5%	0.450	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700
3	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.412	0.235	41.1%	0.372	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.362	0.211	36.7%	0.260	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,900
5	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.386	0.240	36.4%	0.349	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,400
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.340	0.230	34.7%	0.359	C	$2,900	C	$3,500
7	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.363	0.242	39.9%	0.518	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000
8	Andre Ethier	LEFT	0.382	0.209	33.2%	0.000	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300
9	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.323	0.129	32.0%	0.280	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.359	0.202	35.4%	0.307	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Josh Reddick, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Even though Clayton Kershaw struggled a bit in his first start back, it will be a cold day in hell before I target hitters against him on purpose. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA. He also has an elite strikeout rate and a low hard contact rate.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.331 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.2% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.78 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.24 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.35 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.319	0.102	22.9%	0.367	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,500
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.284	0.080	23.2%	0.389	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.247	0.231	40.0%	0.307	C	$3,000	C	$3,900
4	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.298	0.117	27.6%	0.271	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,700
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.323	0.147	30.4%	0.265	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,600
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.312	0.106	22.5%	0.183	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,800
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.314	0.110	26.9%	0.319	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,500
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.205	0.000	60.0%	0.414	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,000
9	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.141	0.000	40.0%	0.195	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.271	0.099	32.6%	0.301	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
NY Mets					Washington
			Robert Gsellman					Tanner Roark
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -149					9.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.336	0	29.2%	22.2%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.318	15	30.7%	16.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.322	1	27.5%	16.4%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.294	16	20.3%	19.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Robert Gsellman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		22.0	FPPG:		10.3
					Pitcher Rating:		44.1	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	3	93.0	4.61	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	8.3%	47.5%	28.8%	28.1%
2016	3	93.0	4.61	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	8.3%	47.5%	28.8%	28.1%

Home:—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 17.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311
Away:—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.348

Gsellman will be making his fourth career major league start today against the Nationals. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog and the over/under is currently set at 9.0 runs. He is still a wildcard at this point in his career, which makes him an easy fade against the likes of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. If you need a cheaper pitcher to target in the early slate, I’d rather take the guy pitching opposite Gsellman.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Tanner Roark
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		33.3	FPPG:		17.2
					Pitcher Rating:		65.3	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	6	102.7	4.93	2.72	17.5%	10.1%	9.1%	44.0%	33.0%	30.1%
2016	29	103.1	4.29	2.85	19.7%	8.0%	8.9%	49.2%	30.6%	24.4%
2015	12	150.0	4.16	4.38	15.0%	5.6%	7.1%	47.8%	30.6%	26.3%

Home:—ERA: 3.25 — K%: 19.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303
Away:—ERA: 3.56 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308

Roark continues to be a candidate for regression, but he continues to defy the odds. In his last five starts, he has a 4.93 SIERA and a 2.72 ERA. It’s hard to trust a pitcher that walks nearly half as many batters as he strikes out, but a matchup against the Mets at home has me intrigued. The Mets are currently ranked 24th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Obviously, Madison Bumgarner should be your SP1 in the early slate, but Roark makes some sense as a cheaper SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets come into the game with a mediocre run projection. Even though they are underdogs, this game has a high total and I’ve already hinted at the possible regression for Tanner Roark. New York is a sneaky offense to target, especially the left-handed hitters.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.341 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.97 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.292	0.104	20.5%	0.319	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$3,800
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.328	0.187	32.2%	0.431	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,300
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.377	0.264	37.0%	0.354	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400
4	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.363	0.232	37.7%	0.480	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
5	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.316	0.163	31.4%	0.278	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$2,700
6	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.334	0.252	38.8%	0.310	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
7	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.315	0.147	29.0%	0.260	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
8	James Loney	LEFT	0.312	0.100	24.6%	0.291	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,600
9	Robert Gsellman	RIGHT				0.000	P	$6,200	P	$4,300
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.181	31.4%	0.303	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Kelly Johnson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals come into today’s game with the fourth highest run projection overall and the highest run projection in the early slate. They draw a favorable matchup against rookie Robert Gsellman, who is only making his fourth career start. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and you can load up on the Nationals’ offense in both cash games and tournaments.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.325 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.76 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.79 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.378	0.230	31.4%	0.394	OF	$4,400	2B/OF	$5,300
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.297	0.140	33.8%	0.273	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.379	0.226	36.4%	0.374	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,200
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.422	0.282	36.8%	0.277	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,100
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.331	0.157	35.9%	0.339	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.305	0.143	30.1%	0.188	C	$3,200	C	$3,700
7	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.281	0.154	32.6%	0.199	1B	$2,600	1B	$2,900
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.303	0.155	30.0%	0.233	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.161	0.030	9.6%	0.293	P	$8,600	P	$8,900
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.169	30.7%	0.286	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Josh Reddick, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Kelly Johnson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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