MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-07 01:24:13

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cincinnati
			Matt Garza							Luis Castillo
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-155							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.335	36.9%	11.5%	12.3%	37.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.264	0.246	29.7%	9.0%	24.5%	54.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.322	30.9%	6.6%	18.9%	43.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.275	27.1%	10.2%	28.4%	61.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Garza
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	19	4.60	4.51	15.2%	7.8%	54.8%	34.9%	19.0%
	2017	21	5.25	4.77	15.7%	9.0%	40.2%	33.9%	16.4%
	L30	6	6.18	7.67	14.1%	13.3%	30.1%	36.1%	13.4%

There are four early games on the schedule today, but one is a makeup game between the Rangers and Braves. The slates were already set before last night’s game was postponed, so the first game of the doubleheader is not included in the early or all-day slates. As such, we will leave it out of the Grind Down.

Garza has been in truly terrible form over his last six starts, posting a 6.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 13%. The ground balls have disappeared and he has allowed a lot of hard contact, especially to left-handed hitters. To make matters worse, he draws a difficult matchup against the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. On the season, Cincinnati is ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Garza is an easy fade in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$11,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	14	3.81	3.32	26.6%	9.7%	57.6%	28.4%	22.1%
	L30	6	3.83	2.97	27.2%	10.3%	57.7%	30.5%	23.2%

Castillo is clearly the best pitching option in the early slate, but we have to pay a pretty penny for him. He has wasted no time getting acclimated to the major leagues, posting a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 58% in his first 13 starts. This obviously isn’t a great ballpark for pitchers, but Castillo’s ability to strike batters out and keep the ball on the ground come in handy. He has plenty of upside against a Brewers’ offense that has the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers see a ballpark bump playing in Cincinnati, but they draw the toughest matchup in the early slate. We are still dealing with a small sample size (13 starts), but Castillo has an elite ground ball rate and a high strikeout rate. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Neil Walker and Travis Shaw are intriguing leverage plays if you want to fade Castillo in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.301	0.273	0.143	36.3%	7.0%	30.7%	56.1%	SS	$3,000	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.360	0.359	0.203	33.2%	9.7%	14.9%	37.2%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.342	0.330	0.214	38.8%	7.9%	21.5%	47.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.384	0.360	0.265	39.9%	10.4%	21.4%	43.1%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.357	0.331	0.197	36.9%	11.4%	29.8%	46.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.380	0.347	0.286	41.3%	14.8%	27.8%	38.2%	1B	$3,000	1B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.327	0.286	0.181	29.8%	6.0%	21.4%	35.9%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.312	0.276	0.154	28.5%	4.8%	19.3%	51.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Matt Garza	RIGHT	0.088	0.112	0.000	5.3%	0.0%	31.0%	87.5%	P	$5,500	P	$6,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

The Reds should be bigger favorites. I have a hard time understanding why they are only -155 in a home game against Matt Garza. They should be able to jump on him early. He has been in awful for recently, he can’t seem to find the strike zone, and he has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .335 xwOBA to lefties and a .322 xwOBA to righties. Oh, and did I mention that the Reds are playing at home in the Great American Ballpark?

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.292	0.253	0.087	15.7%	8.4%	20.3%	46.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.376	0.321	0.219	29.5%	12.6%	16.4%	40.2%	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.434	0.432	0.274	38.1%	19.1%	11.0%	37.4%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.328	0.294	0.246	33.9%	5.3%	27.2%	30.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.397	0.341	0.277	38.6%	7.2%	20.6%	40.1%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.369	0.349	0.214	31.0%	13.2%	22.0%	39.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.341	0.368	0.270	40.0%	10.2%	22.4%	43.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.316	0.330	0.118	33.8%	9.6%	16.4%	44.3%	C	$3,000	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.071	0.140	0.000	6.3%	4.0%	32.0%	66.7%	P	$8,500	P	$11,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Tampa Bay
			Aaron Slegers							Blake Snell
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -165							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.152	0.269	40.0%	0.0%	23.1%	30.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.240	0.254	30.0%	12.5%	25.0%	47.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.251	0.417	57.1%	22.2%	0.0%	57.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.329	0.314	31.6%	10.9%	18.6%	43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Slegers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	1	5.53	2.84	13.6%	9.1%	41.2%	47.1%	23.5%
	L30	1	5.55	2.84	13.6%	9.1%	41.2%	47.1%	23.5%

Slegers is making his second career major league start today against the Rays. In 24 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.32 FIP with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 5%. The minor league numbers aren’t terrible, but he lacks strikeout upside, which is essential for a pitcher’s success in DFS. He’s listed as a large underdog against the Rays, who have plenty of firepower in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Slegers doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	19	5.01	4.02	19.5%	11.1%	44.3%	31.4%	19.9%
	L30	6	4.30	2.43	19.6%	6.8%	52.3%	27.8%	17.6%

Snell was a popular target in his last start against the White Sox. While he pitched well, he only racked up one strikeout. I’m not overly concerned, as he’s had an above-average strikeout rate in his career. The one statistic that stands out above the rest is his 7% walk rate in his last six starts. He draws a decent matchup against the Twins, who are ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is an elite SP2 in all formats and a viable SP1 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have a few batters in their lineup with good numbers against southpaws (Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eduardo Escobar, and Robbie Grossman), but this isn’t a great spot for their offense as a whole. Blake Snell has been in good form since the All-Star break and on the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. The righties from the Twins’ lineup are secondary plays at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.421	0.384	0.245	36.8%	14.5%	17.6%	42.5%	2B	$4,700	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.317	0.314	0.065	17.7%	8.6%	13.3%	53.2%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.369	0.326	0.147	29.2%	12.6%	22.5%	38.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.288	0.264	0.135	29.6%	4.5%	14.9%	37.5%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.345	0.370	0.176	30.3%	8.3%	15.8%	32.3%	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.338	0.369	0.082	38.3%	20.5%	13.1%	41.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.301	0.250	0.134	26.2%	2.3%	20.3%	52.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.284	0.314	0.188	37.8%	9.6%	27.4%	34.9%	C	$2,300	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.249	0.287	0.108	24.2%	4.9%	14.6%	45.2%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eduardo Escobar

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw a favorable matchup against Aaron Slegers, who didn’t have amazing numbers in the minors. This is only his second career start and from the looks of it, he doesn’t have a high ground ball rate. The Rays have a lot of power in their lineup and they come into the game with one of the highest implied totals in the early slate. A stack is viable here in tournaments and there are a number of cash game options as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.370	0.288	0.217	34.5%	8.6%	20.6%	45.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
2	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.373	0.386	0.299	44.6%	14.2%	23.8%	28.2%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.332	0.317	0.171	32.9%	5.3%	14.5%	42.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.376	0.385	0.301	40.0%	13.8%	23.5%	31.8%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.368	0.361	0.280	37.3%	12.4%	29.1%	41.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.343	0.322	0.228	36.1%	6.7%	22.7%	38.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.248	0.301	0.144	30.3%	4.2%	19.3%	44.9%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.301	0.320	0.128	34.1%	19.2%	28.3%	50.4%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.262	0.276	0.103	29.5%	3.0%	19.4%	49.7%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Oakland
			Tyler Skaggs							Sean Manaea
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-120							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.345	20.5%	8.2%	18.0%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.260	0.280	20.2%	4.1%	14.9%	55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.340	32.8%	9.1%	21.4%	39.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.348	0.343	38.5%	8.9%	21.7%	40.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Skaggs
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	10	4.36	4.17	22.8%	10.5%	43.0%	33.3%	21.5%
	2017	11	4.58	4.89	20.6%	8.9%	42.4%	29.7%	22.7%
	L30	6	5.09	5.86	17.3%	10.2%	44.9%	31.1%	22.2%

Skaggs has not pitched well since coming back from injury. In his last six outings, he has a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 10%. I’m usually willing to live with some risk with my pitchers if the strikeout upside is there, but I’m just not seeing it from Skaggs recently. The A’s aren’t a great offense against left-handed pitching, but they do have four batters in their projected lineup with at least a .345 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: There are enough red flags that we can avoid Skaggs in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Manaea
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	24	4.04	3.86	20.9%	6.2%	44.2%	33.6%	18.4%
	2017	25	4.50	4.52	20.3%	7.9%	43.6%	34.4%	14.7%
	L30	5	6.04	8.02	8.8%	7.8%	38.6%	38.6%	8.4%

Manaea has been in worse form than Tyler Skaggs over the last month of play. During that stretch, Manaea has a 6.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 9%. It doesn’t matter how well you are pitching (Manaea is not pitching well), I can’t make room for you in my lineups with a 9% strikeout rate. He is an easy fade today against the new-look Angels.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are slight favorites today against Sean Manaea, who has been in awful form since the All-Star break. He has really struggled against right-handed hitters in his two seasons in the majors. This year alone, he has allowed a .343 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate. Brandon Phillips, Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and C.J. Cron are all on my radar in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.315	0.326	0.078	25.0%	5.3%	11.5%	49.5%	2B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.410	0.389	0.185	36.0%	22.4%	17.6%	48.0%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,900	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.476	0.406	0.387	44.6%	10.7%	19.0%	42.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.269	0.320	0.098	34.3%	8.2%	15.7%	43.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.316	0.313	0.137	26.0%	12.5%	11.0%	51.9%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.342	0.374	0.297	39.1%	5.8%	26.1%	32.6%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.276	0.309	0.127	28.4%	9.6%	17.9%	48.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.304	0.279	0.100	28.8%	7.0%	24.6%	52.1%	C	$2,700	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Cliff Pennington	SWITCH	0.255	0.266	0.022	36.1%	0.0%	21.7%	48.6%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brandon Phillips, Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s may not have the best ballpark for offensive production, but the game has a total of 9.5 runs, which is quite high for a game in Oakland. They draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Skaggs, who has allowed a .340 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. Chad Pinder, Khris Davis, and Ryon Healy all boast an xwOBA of at least .345 against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.325	0.292	0.115	40.0%	12.9%	22.9%	42.2%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.327	0.366	0.206	31.4%	10.3%	24.4%	37.3%	OF	$2,100	OF/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.312	0.319	0.135	28.4%	11.0%	20.3%	43.2%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.286	0.371	0.168	53.3%	16.2%	32.5%	40.0%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.403	0.346	0.259	32.6%	2.7%	19.8%	38.4%	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.295	0.310	0.167	32.4%	6.8%	35.6%	20.6%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
7	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.267	0.243	0.178	25.8%	4.2%	29.2%	32.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.273	0.292	0.098	26.5%	10.0%	18.6%	54.2%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
9	Josh Phegley	RIGHT	0.246	0.282	0.161	33.3%	0.0%	19.6%	35.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Chad Pinder, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Ryon Healy

Stackability –

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Pittsburgh
			Jose Quintana							Gerrit Cole
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-125							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.256	0.258	27.7%	3.7%	27.0%	47.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.337	38.5%	5.1%	22.0%	43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.321	33.0%	9.9%	25.5%	43.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.292	25.6%	6.7%	22.1%	49.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$20,800
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	32	4.01	3.20	21.6%	6.0%	40.4%	32.7%	18.6%
	2017	27	3.95	4.49	25.8%	8.6%	43.9%	31.9%	18.0%
	L30	6	3.85	5.73	25.3%	8.2%	50.0%	29.4%	19.6%

We kick tonight’s 12 game slate off with two intriguing tournament plays at pitcher. Quintana’s ERA (5.73) in his last five starts is ugly, but his peripheral stats match his season long numbers. During that stretch, he has a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He pitched well in his last outing against the Pirates, striking out nine batters. Tonight he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The upside is there for tournaments, but the mid-range is loaded with viable pitchers in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is an intriguing GPP play on FanDuel, but he’s too expensive on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	28	4.00	4.11	22.1%	5.9%	46.3%	31.7%	24.1%
	L30	6	3.84	4.58	24.2%	6.1%	43.2%	32.7%	24.8%

At first glance, I had zero interest in Cole. He’s a pitcher that I can never seem to get right and he is facing a Cubs’ offense that is ranked third in team wOBA over the last month of play. I usually don’t put a ton of stock into BvP, but when I glanced at it this morning, Cole’s PvB against the Cubs stuck out like a sore thumb. Chicago’s current roster is 29-for-140 with a .276 wOBA and a 21% strikeout rate against Cole. He’s pitching at home, his price is discounted, and I expect his ownership to be around 10%.

Quick Breakdown: I have more interest in Cole than I do in Quintana. I still like the two pitchers in the Padres’ game a bit more as SP2s, but Cole is on my radar in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole, who seems to have their number. On paper, this shouldn’t be a matchup that the Cubs struggle with, as Cole has allowed a .337 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, but none of the lefties in this lineup have faired well against him. In a slate that features some very exploitable matchups, I won’t be targeting any Cubs’ hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.320	0.329	0.153	33.6%	10.8%	13.5%	52.5%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.333	0.352	0.266	38.0%	11.6%	29.1%	38.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,700
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.392	0.347	0.247	31.1%	12.6%	19.6%	37.0%	3B	$4,500	3B	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,600
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.393	0.408	0.255	34.6%	13.5%	12.4%	38.2%	1B	$4,800	1B	$5,100	1B	$10,000
5	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.369	0.355	0.307	35.0%	11.0%	30.0%	39.7%	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.386	0.430	0.223	54.9%	16.8%	31.6%	37.3%	C	$2,800	1B/C	$3,600	C	$7,200
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.297	0.280	0.180	29.7%	6.1%	29.4%	48.7%	SS	$3,700	2B/SS	$3,900	2B	$7,800
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.304	0.321	0.124	26.4%	8.7%	11.4%	48.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
9	Jose Quintana	LEFT	0.063	0.085	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	46.7%	66.7%	P	$8,700	P	$10,800	P	$20,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates may not strikeout at a high rate, but they are one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Jose Quintana, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. Andrew McCutchen is the only hitter on my radar here. While he has been swinging a cold bat recently, he still owns a .407 xwOBA and a .380 ISO against southpaws this season and he is dirt cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.157	0.234	0.032	27.7%	4.5%	23.9%	47.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
2	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.383	0.326	0.256	42.9%	16.7%	37.5%	15.0%	OF	$2,000	3B/OF	$2,000	2B	$4,000
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.449	0.407	0.380	42.7%	16.3%	14.7%	32.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.307	0.341	0.218	33.3%	8.2%	14.8%	50.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.366	0.370	0.128	35.2%	15.0%	21.2%	56.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
6	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.332	0.301	0.211	30.8%	6.3%	12.5%	53.8%	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.310	0.308	0.164	40.7%	8.9%	16.3%	50.0%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.101	0.212	0.067	32.1%	3.0%	12.1%	53.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.110	0.194	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	75.0%	P	$8,700	P	$9,500	P	$18,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Baltimore
			Sonny Gray							Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-115							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.263	0.291	26.6%	8.3%	22.2%	54.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.356	32.1%	12.7%	19.9%	39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.303	29.2%	7.6%	24.2%	53.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.349	0.335	33.0%	6.6%	22.1%	44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	22	3.91	3.36	23.2%	7.9%	53.6%	28.0%	17.2%
	L30	6	4.36	3.16	22.6%	9.0%	45.6%	26.9%	18.3%

Gray is having a nice season overall, both as a member of the A’s and now as a member of the Yankees. In his last six starts, he has a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He is a ground ball pitcher, which should come in handy in Camden Yards. The main issue that I have here is the matchup. Gray has historically been a reverse-splits pitcher and the Orioles will likely send seven or eight right-handed hitters to the plate tonight. There are better values and safer targets in tonight’s slate.

Quick Breakdown: Gray would have more appeal as an SP2 if there wasn’t a game in San Diego tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	29	4.55	4.79	21.2%	9.2%	42.2%	32.6%	18.2%
	L30	6	4.16	2.92	23.8%	8.0%	37.9%	27.2%	17.5%

Of the two pitchers in this game, I have more interest in Gausman than I do in Gray. He has really turned his season around. Since the All-Star break, he has looked more like the 2016 version of himself than the one we saw in the first half of the season. In his last six starts, he has a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has also cut down on his hard contact during that stretch. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the Yankees. While they have plenty of power in their lineup, they can also strikeout at a high rate.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman has some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. There is certainly some upside in this lineup, even though I have some interest in Kevin Gausman in tournaments. I’m not sure that I want to stack New York against a high strikeout pitcher, but we can certainly target a few one-offs. Gausman is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .356 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.358	0.338	0.201	33.8%	11.5%	18.0%	42.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
2	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.351	0.330	0.139	31.9%	13.0%	23.2%	43.2%	1B	$3,900	1B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.337	0.304	0.175	31.4%	3.6%	19.9%	49.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.359	0.286	0.225	26.2%	4.2%	12.0%	38.7%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,000
5	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.414	0.419	0.305	43.7%	15.3%	31.9%	35.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,600
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.254	0.319	0.129	39.1%	13.3%	28.9%	33.3%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
7	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.322	0.338	0.173	29.5%	13.6%	22.3%	37.9%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
8	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.334	0.333	0.152	26.4%	9.7%	13.0%	46.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.261	0.300	0.056	22.5%	5.7%	23.3%	43.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	C	$4,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have a fairly high implied run total tonight, but their matchup against Sonny Gray is far from ideal. He has an elite ground ball rate (54%) and an above-average strikeout rate (23%), which is a tough one-two combo. Historically, he has allowed a higher xwOBA and ISO to right-handed hitters though, which does bode well for Baltimore. Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop both bat from the right side and both have above-average fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.347	0.312	0.176	41.1%	4.6%	29.4%	48.2%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.342	0.362	0.223	37.6%	7.7%	16.0%	42.2%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,200	3B	$10,000
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.364	0.313	0.210	32.7%	4.5%	20.3%	41.2%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.342	0.312	0.205	31.2%	3.4%	17.7%	44.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.378	0.350	0.252	34.9%	6.6%	22.7%	52.4%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.327	0.341	0.258	45.2%	11.6%	35.2%	35.7%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
7	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.297	0.310	0.171	31.2%	7.8%	24.0%	42.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.327	0.329	0.185	36.1%	6.1%	25.2%	42.4%	C	$3,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
9	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.342	0.354	0.175	36.4%	10.0%	20.1%	42.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 6th

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Stackability Rating System:

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eduardo Escobar

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brandon Phillips, Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Chad Pinder, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Ryon Healy

Stackability –

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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