MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-08 02:28:12

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

NY Mets at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
NY Mets					Cincinnati
			Noah Syndergaard					Anthony DeSclafani
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -140					8.5
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.298	15	27.2%	25.2%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.347	21	32.5%	20.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.256	14	24.8%	30.9%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.278	8	29.5%	19.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$11,000
					FPPG:		39.1	FPPG:		21.8
					Pitcher Rating:		90.8	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	101.6	3.58	2.20	24.4%	6.3%	14.0%	48.9%	31.8%	18.2%
2016	26	98.0	2.96	2.56	28.9%	5.4%	14.5%	50.5%	27.3%	27.2%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Home:—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 28.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.249
Away:—ERA: 3.42 — K%: 27.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.307

Syndergaard is having a career year, posting a 2.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.9% and a walk rate of 5.4%. While he sees a negative ballpark shift playing in the Great American Ballpark, the matchup more than makes up for it. On the season, the Reds are ranked 17th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. He is clearly the top pitching option in the early-only slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Anthony DeSclafani
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$10,100
					FPPG:		35.1	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		63.6	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	98.6	3.75	2.91	21.8%	3.8%	11.0%	41.2%	37.1%	33.3%
2016	16	100.2	3.94	2.93	21.4%	5.2%	9.7%	40.4%	37.2%	30.6%
2015	31	94.0	4.08	4.05	19.2%	7.0%	9.5%	45.1%	33.6%	31.4%

Home:—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 20.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339
Away:—ERA: 3.08 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292

DeSclafani has quietly been in solid form over his last five starts, posting a 2.91 ERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8% and a walk rate of 3.8%. The main issue for a pitcher like DeSclafani is the ballpark. He gives up a lot of fly balls and a hard contact rate over 30%. In case you didn’t know, the Great American Ballpark has yielded more home runs than any park in baseball this season. Given the fact that he is a sizable underdog at home, he can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but we can’t put a ton of stock into those numbers. Their current roster is a lot better than it has been for most of the season. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati and their matchup against Anthony DeSclafani is an exploitable one. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .347 wOBA and 21 home runs to left-handed hitters.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.322 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.92 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.294	0.102	20.7%	0.334	3B	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,700
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.325	0.188	31.9%	0.597	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,300
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.376	0.259	36.3%	0.357	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,000
4	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.361	0.227	37.1%	0.320	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.337	0.255	38.8%	0.346	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.278	0.112	26.6%	0.386	2B	$3,100	1B/3B	$3,500
7	James Loney	LEFT	0.309	0.097	24.3%	0.186	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,600
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.318	0.151	28.9%	0.291	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.273	0.213	36.8%	0.248	P	$10,800	P	$11,000
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.178	31.3%	0.341	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds may not have the lowest run projection in the slate, but their matchup against Noah Syndergaard is one of the toughest. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. Joey Votto and Adam Duvall have hard contact rates against right-handed pitching, but they are GPP fliers at best in this matchup.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (20 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.332 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (17 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.80 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.312	0.046	18.7%	0.465	SS	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,600
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.316	0.171	29.1%	0.304	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,000
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.422	0.240	42.4%	0.434	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,900
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.347	0.284	37.2%	0.349	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
5	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.316	0.115	26.5%	0.268	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,900
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.326	0.203	37.3%	0.480	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,100
7	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.309	0.157	32.7%	0.298	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,900
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.317	0.122	27.5%	0.274	C	$2,100	C	$2,900
9	Anthony DeSclafani	RIGHT	0.147	0.013	18.9%	0.000	P	$8,300	P	$10,100
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.150	30.0%	0.319	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Baltimore					Tampa Bay
			Dylan Bundy					Drew Smyly
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -101					8.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.304	6	27.6%	18.7%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.285	6	30.6%	33.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.335	7	27.3%	26.1%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.324	34	30.2%	22.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Dylan Bundy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		16.2	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		62.2	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	6	92.3	4.81	4.26	21.0%	11.6%	10.3%	39.6%	44.0%	23.1%
2016	10	90.4	4.17	3.47	22.1%	8.6%	10.6%	36.2%	43.8%	27.5%

Home:—ERA: 2.72 — K%: 22.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.289
Away:—ERA: 4.54 — K%: 21.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

Bundy has shown some nice upside in his rookie season, posting a 3.47 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.1%. He sees a favorable ballpark shift pitching in Tropicana Field and he draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Rays. While Tampa Bay does have sneaky power against right-handed pitching, they have the fourth highest k-rate. I see Bundy as a low-owned GPP play in the early-only slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,800
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		71.9	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	94.0	4.93	4.11	20.5%	8.2%	10.9%	24.1%	58.6%	23.0%
2016	26	96.9	4.05	4.94	23.6%	6.5%	10.8%	30.1%	49.8%	29.7%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Home:—ERA: 4.09 — K%: 28.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.286
Away:—ERA: 4.64 — K%: 22.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339

Smyly hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he always brings an above-average strikeout rate to the table. Everyone is generally scared to take pitchers against the Orioles, but they have actually struggled quite a bit against southpaws. On the season, they are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 21st in team ISO against left-handed pitching. The upside is certainly there for Smyly, especially at this price point.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles come into the game with the seventh lowest implied team total on the board. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Drew Smyly, who has an above-average strikeout rate. The one statistic that stands out in this matchup is his numbers allowed to right-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, he has given up 34 home runs to righties.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.296 (26 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.325 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.154 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.5% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.89 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.294	0.157	30.6%	0.376	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800
2	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.342	0.229	34.9%	0.362	OF	$3,200	1B/2B	$3,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.353	0.189	33.9%	0.413	3B	$4,000	3B/SS	$4,800
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.323	0.241	37.5%	0.410	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.279	0.127	24.7%	0.262	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,200
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.335	0.198	34.7%	0.380	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,800
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.275	0.117	32.5%	0.327	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.249	0.088	30.8%	0.217	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700
9	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.298	0.116	26.9%	0.284	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.162	31.8%	0.337	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have the fourth highest wOBA of any team over the last month of play. Despite their recent success, they come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest run projection. I see some fantasy appeal here though, as Dylan Bundy has struggled on the road in his first major league stint. He has also allowed a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (16 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.341 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.7% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.24 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.01 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.337	0.137	31.0%	0.395	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,000
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.317	0.174	28.2%	0.289	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.335	0.204	34.0%	0.266	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,600
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.353	0.232	35.1%	0.245	SS	$3,400	1B/SS	$3,900
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.319	0.187	35.1%	0.443	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,700
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.309	0.163	32.3%	0.131	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
7	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.315	0.206	35.6%	0.368	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,700
8	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.344	0.262	34.2%	0.285	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.264	0.122	32.8%	0.508	C	$2,900	C	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.187	33.1%	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Detroit					Chicago White Sox
			Anibal Sanchez					Jose Quintana
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -120					9.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.318	22	27.1%	21.9%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.269	7	28.9%	22.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.364	32	30.8%	18.7%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.309	27	30.3%	21.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Anibal Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		19.0	FPPG:		8.9
					Pitcher Rating:		54.6	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	6	93.8	4.05	4.17	20.3%	3.4%	8.9%	35.2%	46.3%	30.0%
2016	23	100.3	4.50	5.70	19.7%	8.2%	9.2%	38.5%	41.9%	31.0%
2015	25	101.3	4.03	4.99	20.9%	7.4%	9.3%	40.0%	39.1%	27.1%

Home:—ERA: 4.61 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.315
Away:—ERA: 6.21 — K%: 19.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.370

Sanchez has some drastic home/road splits in the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has a 6.21 ERA with a wOBA allowed of .370 on the road. We probably wouldn’t have looked to target Sanchez anyway, but those road splits are a huge red flag. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard contact rate over 30% on the season. He should be avoided against the White Sox, who have been much better offensively in the last month of play.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jose Quintana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		35.5	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		68.5	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	5	98.2	3.51	3.55	22.6%	3.8%	8.4%	47.9%	31.3%	32.7%
2016	27	102.9	3.89	3.05	22.3%	5.5%	7.9%	40.4%	39.6%	32.9%
2015	32	105.4	3.62	3.36	20.5%	5.1%	9.2%	47.1%	29.7%	27.7%

Home:—ERA: 3.19 — K%: 21.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away:—ERA: 3.23 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.314

Quintana always seems to fly under the radar, despite posting a quality start every time he takes the mound. On the season, he owns a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.3% and a walk rate of 5.5%. The biggest issue with him today is his matchup. The Tigers will likely have nine right-handed hitters in their lineup and Quintana’s numbers are considerably worse against righties than they are against lefties.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Despite facing an above-average southpaw, they come into the game with a healthy projection of 4.38 runs. In the last two seasons combined, Quintana has allowed 27 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (16 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.328 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.9% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.65 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.333	0.110	22.7%	0.486	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.349	0.130	22.2%	0.289	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.396	0.197	39.0%	0.438	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.350	0.140	31.3%	0.307	C	$3,300	1B	$2,900
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.386	0.264	47.7%	0.402	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.281	0.150	36.4%	0.464	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300
7	Casey McGehee	RIGHT	0.320	0.044	35.0%	0.207	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,200
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.368	0.255	39.0%	0.343	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
9	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.268	0.063	8.7%	0.413	SS	$2,400	OF/SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.150	31.3%	0.372	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Jose Iglesias, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are my favorite offense to target in the early-only slate. As I mentioned above, Anibal Sanchez is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. In the last two seasons, he has allowed 54 home runs in only 48 starts. During that stretch, he has allowed a .318 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .364 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Jose Abreu looks close to a must play, as he has a .470 wOBA in the last two weeks.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.147 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.356	0.168	30.0%	0.369	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.294	0.140	32.8%	0.334	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,200
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.134	28.0%	0.407	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.369	0.207	32.3%	0.470	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,400
5	Justin Morneau	LEFT	0.337	0.167	35.1%	0.277	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,400
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.326	0.218	34.5%	0.364	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,200
7	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.314	0.125	33.7%	0.383	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
8	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.289	0.115	30.3%	0.274	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
9	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.276	0.128	21.0%	0.334	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,800
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.156	30.9%	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Justin Morneau

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	HC%
LA Angels					Oakland
			Alex Meyer			Jharel Cotton
			RIGHT			RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline			Vegas Over/Under
			OAK -120			9.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.597	2	30.0%	15.4%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.508	1	23.1%	24.0%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Alex Meyer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		5.5	FPPG:		0.5
					Pitcher Rating:		44.4	Pitcher Rank:		25
2016	1	93.0	5.43	12.27	21.7%	17.4%	9.7%	35.7%	35.7%	21.4%
2015	0	0.0	6.57	16.87	20.0%	20.0%	4.6%	12.5%	87.5%	33.3%

Home:—ERA: 18.00 — K%: 11.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.605
Away:—ERA: 13.50 — K%: 24.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.518

Meyer is only making his second career major league start tonight. You can throw out his major league numbers, as the sample size is much too small. He has pitched well at the Triple-A level this season, posting a 1.04 ERA with a strikeout rate close to 30%. I will be keeping a close eye on him over the next few weeks, as he presents a great opportunity for upside at a large discount.

Statistics	K%	SS%	GB%	HC%
Jharel Cotton
	FanDuel		DraftKings
	Salary:	$5,500	Salary:	$5,200
	FPPG:	0.0	FPPG:	0.0
	Pitcher Rating:	58.7	Pitcher Rank:	18

Cotton is making his major league debut today against the Angels. In 16 Triple-A starts this season, he had a strikeout rate of 29.5%. He has the element of surprise on his side, as no one in the majors has faced him. He is another pitcher to keep your eye on moving forward, but he is a risky fantasy option right out of the gate. This game has one of the highest over/unders in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels lack firepower in their lineup, but they come into today’s game with the 11th highest run projection. They get to face a rookie pitcher that is making his major league debut. Jharel Cotton has shown some great upside in the minors, but we see pitchers struggle in their debuts more often than we see them dominate.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.9% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.55 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.328	0.162	32.2%	0.362	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.421	0.283	41.5%	0.600	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,600
3	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.333	0.208	35.0%	0.507	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,700
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.350	0.213	30.7%	0.435	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,700
5	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.304	0.186	33.3%	0.530	3B	$3,100	1B/3B	$3,600
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.292	0.068	24.3%	0.347	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,900
7	Nick Buss	RIGHT	0.335	0.234	26.3%	0.273	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.302	0.146	28.1%	0.267	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
9	Kaleb Cowart	SWITCH	0.274	0.138	26.2%	0.298	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.182	30.8%	0.402	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s are favored today against Alex Meyer and the Angels. With two inexperienced pitchers on the mound, this game could easily turn into a shootout in Oakland. It’s hard to trust any splits with such a small sample size, but I’m comfortable targeting both left and right-handed hitters from the A’s.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (27 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.270 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (4 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.291	0.151	29.3%	0.251	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,400
2	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.342	0.198	33.5%	0.263	3B	$3,200	3B/OF	$4,000
3	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.339	0.185	28.4%	0.253	C	$2,900	C	$3,600
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.351	0.267	37.5%	0.320	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.316	0.115	33.0%	0.230	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,100
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.337	0.179	30.8%	0.360	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200
7	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.125	0.000	33.3%	0.110	3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,000
8	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.250	0.104	27.0%	0.258	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
9	Bruce Maxwell	LEFT	0.202	0.043	41.2%	0.263	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.138	32.7%	0.256	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Danny Valencia, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Atlanta					Washington
			Mike Foltynewicz					Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -235					8.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.367	18	31.5%	17.8%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.264	14	27.4%	31.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.338	17	30.6%	21.4%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.298	15	28.4%	29.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Mike Foltynewicz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		50.2	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	6	101.3	4.10	3.72	20.0%	5.3%	9.5%	42.6%	36.1%	32.4%
2016	19	97.7	4.20	4.31	20.2%	6.4%	9.9%	42.2%	36.9%	29.7%
2015	15	98.7	4.30	5.71	19.3%	7.3%	8.9%	33.3%	43.5%	32.5%

Home:—ERA: 4.74 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away:—ERA: 5.11 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.374

Foltynewicz has been in decent form recently, but he is one of the largest underdogs in the slate. He draws a difficult matchup against the Nationals and he is pitching on the road. In the last two seasons, Foltynewicz has allowed a .374 wOBA in his road starts. There is more risk than upside for Foltynewicz, especially considering the fact that Stephen Strasburg is pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Stephen Strasburg
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		42.6	FPPG:		22.1
					Pitcher Rating:		86.2	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	3	87.3	3.76	14.66	27.7%	9.2%	8.0%	29.3%	39.0%	41.5%
2016	23	101.9	3.22	3.59	30.4%	7.5%	10.9%	39.5%	39.2%	26.9%
2015	23	88.8	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

Home:—ERA: 3.60 — K%: 30.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281
Away:—ERA: 3.45 — K%: 29.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282

The last time we saw Strasburg, he gave up nine runs to the Rockies in less than two innings of work. He injured his elbow and was eventually placed on the DL. This will be his first start in nearly two weeks and with the playoffs coming up, don’t be surprised to see the Nationals ease him back into action. In addition to the potential pitch count, his matchup against the Braves isn’t nearly as good as it would have been a month ago. Atlanta has the seventh highest team wOBA over the last month of play. I will be looking to Carlos Carrasco and David Price instead.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves come into the game with the second lowest run projection in the slate. While I don’t like the spot as a whole, their offense has been very good over the last month of play. Freddie Freeman is worth a look as a one-off target here. In his career, he is 14-for-34 with four home runs and three double against Stephen Strasburg. Oh, fun fact: Ender Inciarte has more multi-hits since the All-Star Break than any hitter in baseball.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (26 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.338 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.71 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.83 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.22 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.342	0.115	27.8%	0.452	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600
2	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.311	0.171	31.1%	0.400	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.399	0.267	40.7%	0.520	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,800
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.312	0.183	39.2%	0.343	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.337	0.113	29.7%	0.273	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.300	0.135	35.7%	0.372	C	$2,100	C	$3,300
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.314	0.114	24.7%	0.313	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,400
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.230	0.040	26.8%	0.218	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.120	0.037	20.0%	0.125	P	$6,800	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.131	30.6%	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals have one of the highest run projections in the entire slate. They are a slightly above-average offense against right-handed pitching and they draw a favorable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. In the last two seasons, Foltynewicz has allowed a .367 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up 35 home runs in his last 34 starts.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.319 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.165 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.76 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.78 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.362	0.198	33.3%	0.384	OF	$4,000	2B/OF	$4,700
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.299	0.144	34.3%	0.370	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.377	0.228	36.1%	0.344	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.428	0.289	36.8%	0.366	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.308	0.145	30.2%	0.228	C	$3,200	C	$3,300
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.328	0.154	36.2%	0.347	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,400
7	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.284	0.154	32.5%	0.153	1B	$3,000	1B	$2,600
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.306	0.160	30.5%	0.355	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.175	0.014	11.1%		P	$10,200	P	$10,400
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.165	31.2%	0.318	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 7th

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Stackability Rating System:

NY Mets at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Jose Iglesias, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Justin Morneau

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Danny Valencia, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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