The Relief Brief: Friday, September 9th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-10 02:59:17

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Check the bottom of the article for your last chance to enter the NFL Week 1 Relief Brief readers GPP contest on DK.

Friday night features a full 15-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

1. Bullpen Highlights

The argument could be made that Rick Porcello has been the best (or at least the most consistent) pitcher for the Red Sox this season. Porcello has gone for at least six innings in 25 of his 28 starts. Tonight, he will face Toronto, which is no small task. The Red Sox are coming off of a travel day, and so the ‘pen will be fresh. This is also a bullpen that is getting healthier with the return of Koji Uehara. Still, Porcello has been such a reliable source of innings for the Sox that it is difficult to factor in too much bullpen use tonight. For what it’s worth, the Red Sox ‘pen has struggled a bit over the last 30 days, but as I mentioned, they are coming back into form for the stretch run.

Kevin Gausman has 19 consecutive scoreless innings over his last three starts, which includes a combined 19 strikeouts and just four walks. The Orioles pitching staff is desperate for strong starting pitching down the stretch, and Gausman is answering that call. For the season, his xFIP sits at 3.71, but he has struggled with a 15.8% HR/FB rate. With his current form factored in, I’d expect Gausman to be given an extended leash to work out of potential trouble and to have every chance to continue his impressive run. The O’s bullpen has not been very good this season, and especially over the last 30 days with a 1.55 HR/9 allowed and a 4.04 SIERA.

For me, only one thing rivals the excitement of the return of NFL, and that is the return of Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw returns from the 60-Day DL to face the Marlins tonight. It should be noted that Kershaw only made one rehab appearance, which came at high A level. In that appearance, he pitched three innings. We shouldn’t expect a fully stretched out Kershaw tonight as he will likely have a pitch limit of 80-90 pitches or less. The Dodgers are in playoff contention, and they will want to slowly work Kershaw into form for October. The Dodgers ‘pen can be expected to see some work tonight, and they’ve been solid all season long. There’s not a ton to take away from this game, but I couldn’t pass up the chance to mention Kershaw.

In his first three major league starts, Robert Gsellman has pitched fairly well on the surface. If we dig in a bit deeper, there is some reason for concern including his 4.68 xFIP compared with his 2.87 ERA. In Gsellman’s nine AAA starts this season, he gave up eight home runs, which is a lot for AAA ball. Gsellman has the advantage of pitching in Atlanta tonight, which happens to be one of the lowest HR factored ballparks (and the opposition is not to be feared either). I expect Gsellman to blow up sooner or later, but the Braves may not be the team to do it. The Mets’ bullpen is pitching very well lately with a 3.27 SIERA over the last 30 days. The Braves could be a sneaky team to target, but don’t expect much damage to be done against this bullpen. There are probably better spots out there.

Tyler Duffey got called back up to the big leagues after a brief stint in AAA. More than one third of Duffey’s starts have gone for fewer than five innings, and he has exceeded 100 pitches just once in his last eight starts. Duffey is highly unlikely to put up a quality start here, and we should anticipate heavy amounts of bullpen work for the Twins tonight. The Twins ‘pen continues to struggle over the second half of the season, and they currently own the fifth worst bullpen SIERA over the last 30 days (4.24).

Jimmy Nelson has reached the six-inning mark just once in his last nine starts, which has led to some serious bullpen work in games that he starts. Not only have the outings been short, but Nelson has been getting lit up. The Brewers bullpen owns the worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days and the fifth worst SIERA on the season. Unless Jimmy can flip a switch, the Cards will be seeing heavy doses of this bullpen, which is the perfect storm for spots that we like to target.

Rubby De La Rosa makes his return from the 60-Day DL tonight as well, though he isn’t getting quite the same coverage as Mr. Kershaw. Rubby made three rehab appearances, but didn’t pitch more than four innings in any appearance. We should anticipate Rubby being slowly worked back into form, which means that he is unlikely to go beyond five innings tonight. The Giants will be facing the Diamondbacks bullpen, which has consistently been one of the worst ‘pens in baseball this season. In fact, the Arizona ‘pen is now within a tenth of a point of catching the Reds for the worst bullpen SIERA of 2016! You can do it, Dbacks!!!

Tyler Chatwood has gone for six innings or more just three times in his last ten outings. Last night, I highlighted the Rockies as one of my favorite bullpens to attack, and that worked out fantastically. The Rockies were forced to use five arms in long relief yesterday and they coughed up a total of six earned runs in relief. Tonight is a similar story. We have a struggling starting pitcher backed up by a struggling and heavily fatigued bullpen. While the Padres aren’t necessarily the most confidence inspiring team to roster, they have some pieces that can carry a lineup (such as Ryan Schimpf last night). Don’t hesitate to take a Padres bat or two.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Minnesota Twins

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Rockies activated Jason Motte off of the 15-day DL. Mott has struggled mightily with a 5.66 ERA in 2016.

Trevor Rosenthal of the Cardinals is nearing a return as soon as next week. Rosenthal would be a huge boost to the Cardinals ‘pen if he returns healthy.

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. 3. Other Notes And Insights

I’m going to create an NFL Week 1 GPP contest on DraftKings for readers. Simply comment with your username and I’ll send you a link for the competition. Final invites will be sent by 4:00pm ET today.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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