The Relief Brief: Tuesday, September 6th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-07 02:15:48

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Tuesday night features a full 15-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

There is a strong theme of fatigued bullpens today, so every pitcher/bullpen that I highlight today will focus on the likelihood of the starting pitcher to work deep into the game, the strength of bullpen, and the chances of bullpen implosion. Sounds fun, right? Here we go.

1. Bullpen Highlights

While Ryan Vogelsong has been pitching a bit better since returning from the DL, he is still an unlikely candidate to work deep into any outing. Vogey hasn’t pitched beyond six innings at any point this season. The Pirates ‘pen has certainly been slumping lately after a strong start to August. Combine their recent slump with overall fatigue (especially to Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes and Kelvin Marte), and a sub-average starting pitcher, and this could be a unit to attack tonight.

Brandon Finnegan has been pitching fantastically lately. Six of his last seven outings have gone for six innings or more, while allowing two earned runs or less in five of his last seven starts. The Cincinnati bullpen has unsurprisingly seen a lot of work lately and has struggled in the work they’ve received. I anticipate a longer leash for Finnegan tonight both in hopes of sparing the bullpen and in hopes of Finnegan continuing his recent stretch of successful long outings. He’s been rising to the occasion of late.

One of the themes of the second half of the season has been the lack of long outings for the Cleveland Indians starting pitchers, with the great exception of Corey Kluber. The Klu-Bot has ten straight outings of six or more innings pitched. The Cleveland ‘pen used five relievers yesterday, all of whom threw double digit pitches. Kluber is another starting pitcher working in front of a tired bullpen, and I anticipate Kluber getting an extended leash against the Astros tonight. In spite of the recent fatigue and workload, the Indians ‘pen has posted the best SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days with a lights-out number of 2.95.

Miguel Gonzalez is coming off of the DL to make the start tonight against the Tigers. Prior to going on the DL, Gonzalez had seven straight starts of six innings or more, while allowing no more than three earned runs in any of those outings. Gonzalez did make one rehab start before being activated, and it did not go well. He lasted just 4.1 innings while giving up six earned runs and two home runs to Baltimore’s AAA affiliate. I don’t anticipate a long outing for Gonzalez tonight as he is facing one of the hottest hitting clubs in baseball in his first big league outing in over a month. The White Sox bullpen has the third worst SIERA in baseball on the season, and a quick glance at the table below shows just how much work their bullpen has had to put in lately. This is a very attractive spot to attack tonight.

Matt Boyd just hopped off of the roster carousel as he was demoted down to AAA and promoted back up to the big leagues in the course of a few days. Boyd had previously made four consecutive starts for the Tigers and had put up respectable numbers. In those four starts, Boyd pitched 23 innings, gave up six earned runs and struck out 17. Boyd did struggle in his last outing against the White Sox (his opponent tonight), but has otherwise pitched reasonably well on the season. The Tigers will likely be without closer Francisco Rodriguez tonight as he has thrown 37 pitches over the last two days. Alex Wilson (usual set-up man) has also thrown 41 pitches in the last two days. Boyd could likely be given a longer leash tonight, particularly if he can maintain his recent overall success. The Tigers have been one of the better bullpen units of August, though the fatigue will likely leave them short handed tonight.

Dillon Gee will face the red hot Brian Doziers tonight, I mean, the Minnesota Twins (seriously though, talk about a hot streak, unless you don’t believe in streaks…). Gee has consistently been a source of barely “quality starts” as he often posts similar outings to five plus innings with two earned runs. He’s an unlikely candidate to work deep into the ballgame tonight. The Royals ‘pen has worked plenty of late with Brian Flynn, Brooks Pounders, Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander working a good amount lately. In this case, the Royals have enough fresh arms to cover the fatigued arms for later innings, but middle relief could be a problem spot for them if Gee can’t cover five to six innings.

Ervin Santana has gone for six or more innings in seven of his last eight outings. All season long, Santana has been given a long leash by his manager, and he has been able to respond reasonably well to the workload. Despite a recent uptick in strikeouts, Santana is largely a contact pitcher at this point in his career and has given up 16 hits in his last two outings. The Twins bullpen has been worked a ton over the last two days and will likely be without Patrick Dean (this is probably better for the Twins) and Taylor Rogers, who have both been overworked in the last two days. Santana is likely to be extended to somewhere around six or seven plus innings tonight, regardless of his form. However, if that plan goes awry, this is a bullpen that can be had (4.17 SIERA over the last 30 days).

Ricky Nolasco is coming off of a complete game shut out against the Reds. Nolasco was incredibly economical in that outing by throwing just 94 pitched in nine full innings. Normally, I like to pick on an average pitcher following a long outing, but the pitch count takes away from that mentality. Nolasco has been a fairly reliable source of innings since July by posting six or more innings in nine of his last 11 outings. Jose Valdez (32 pitches yesterday), Andrew Bailey (18 pitches yesterday, 11 pitches two days ago), J.C. Ramirez (36 pitches two days ago) and Deolis Guerra (20 pitches yesterday, 18 pitches two days ago) are just a few of the overused pitchers in the Angels bullpen over the last three days. Nolasco gets the advantage of throwing in the pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum tonight, and should have an extended leash in hopes of sparing the bullpen from the same fate of recent days.

Zach Neal made four starts in August and reached the six-inning mark in just one of those outings. Neal has largely struggled in the big leagues this year by posting a 5.33 ERA with a 4.52 xFIP and a 1.47 HR/9 through just shy of 50 inning pitched. Liam Hendricks and Sean Doolittle will likely be unavailable tonight after pitched 20 plus pitches each. The pitching environment is good, but the Angels have been on a roll at the plate lately. Expect Neal to yield to a struggling/fatigued bullpen relatively early on in this outing, which makes this an attractive spot to attack.

Jose Urena has recently limited the Mets, Padres and Pirates to a combined four earned runs over 17.2 innings. Still, Urena has not pitched beyond six innings in any start this season, and has a lofty xFIP of 4.90. Austin Brice and Brian Ellington worked a lot yesterday, and will likely be limited tonight. The Marlins bullpen has the second worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days, which would normally make them a prime candidate to attack given the starting pitcher especially. Unfortunately, the Marlins will be facing the Phillies tonight, and the struggling Phillies are unlikely to capitalize on the situation. If you want to take a bat or two, I won’t blame you, but there may be better weapons to attack with.

Martin Perez will take on the Mariners in Seattle tonight. Perez is a pitcher with an ERA (4.30) below his xFIP (4.84), which often indicates a regression candidate. Perez has been fairly consistent in his ability to work deep into games this season as he has gone six or more innings in 21 of his 28 starts. While the advanced stats and metrics are not impressive, Perez will likely be extended tonight due to his tired bullpen behind him. The Rangers ‘pen showed signs of improvement in August, but they still own the seventh worst bullpen SIERA in baseball on the season and a HR/9 rate of 1.24 making them a decent team to attack tonight.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Texas Rangers
5. Minnesota Twins

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Astros are recalling Brad Peacock from AAA to make the start tonight. Peacock has been mediocre in the minors this season, and is unlikely to post great results in the spot start this evening.

The Rays recalled Steve Geltz from the minors. Geltz has been awful this season in the big leagues, and will likely pitch middle relief for the Rays the rest of the way.

The Dodgers recalled Luis Avilan from AAA. Avilan has bounced up and down, and should serve as a middle reliever for the Dodgers ‘pen.

The Red Sox activated Koji Uehara from the DL. Koji should serve as a late inning arm and the speculation is that his time on the DL also served to give him rest for the stretch run. Time will tell if this is an actual benefit to the Red Sox bullpen, though it ought to be.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Clay Buchholz is starting tonight for the Red Sox in San Diego. While Clay has bounced around between the rotation and the bullpen, he has pitched better as a starter since early August with 16.2 innings, four earned runs and 13 strikeouts.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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