MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 20th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Boston at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||||
 | Chris Sale |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| BOS-142 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.252 | 25.8% | 2.7% | 30.8% | 54.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.273 | 27.8% | 9.1% | 22.6% | 36.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.279 | 33.2% | 5.5% | 25.8% | 38.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.299 | 36.3% | 8.9% | 23.0% | 31.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chris Sale | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $11,400 | Salary: | $13,300 | Salary: | $25,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 35 | 3.33 | 3.15 | 26.6% | 5.1% | 40.6% | 32.1% | 17.1% | |
We have another split slate on tap today with four early games and seven evening games. It’s going to be painful to stomach a Sale fade in the early slate, as he is clearly the top pitching option on the board. He has wasted little time getting comfortable in a Red Sox jersey, striking out 29 batters in his first three starts. The Blue Jays may have a good offense on paper, but they have really struggled to string together hits this season. Sale is likely to face nine batters that can hit from the right side, but we can overlook that thanks to a 25.8% strikeout rate against righties in the last two seasons.
Quick Breakdown: Playable in all formats.
| Marco Estrada | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $16,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 32 | 4.31 | 3.48 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 34.3% | 31.9% | 20.2% | |
Estrada is a fly ball pitcher whose home run per fly ball rate is way below the major league average. This statistic alone is the main reason why we see such a large gap between his ERA and his SIERA. He’s a pitcher that can get into trouble at times, especially when his command is off. The Red Sox are one of the best in baseball at working pitch counts and they also have a lot of power against right-handed pitching. Estrada has an above-average strikeout rate, but this isn’t the matchup to employ this fly-ball pitcher.
Quick Breakdown: He’s not the worst pitching option in the slate, but certainly not the best either.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
If you are a fan of BvP, you may want to look elsewhere for your hitters in the early slate. The current Red Sox roster has a .289 wOBA against Marco Estrada in the past. It’s certainly worth pointing out, but Estrada has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to righties and the Sox get to face him in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The top six batters from the Red Sox are all in play today.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.129 | 33.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 50.9% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.207 | 34.7% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 31.6% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.200 | 33.2% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 42.3% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,900 |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.178 | 37.1% | 9.3% | 19.3% | 49.3% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.194 | 38.9% | 7.4% | 23.0% | 39.9% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $6,000 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.139 | 29.2% | 7.0% | 17.0% | 46.7% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
| 7 | Chris Young | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.177 | 40.5% | 9.1% | 21.0% | 32.2% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,000 | P | $8,000 |
| 8 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.237 | 0.200 | 50.0% | 7.7% | 30.8% | 33.3% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 9 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.132 | 34.2% | 5.9% | 26.6% | 44.8% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,200 |
Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland (DK)
Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Mitch Moreland (FD), Xander Bogaerts
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
Chris Sale has an elite strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters and has been in tremendous form in his first three starts with the Red Sox. There is very little to like here, but Sale does allow a 33% hard contact rate to righties. Is that enough of a reason to target the Blue Jays? Probably not, but you can potentially look to Kendrys Morales as a leverage play against Sale if you want to fade him in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.117 | 31.8% | 1.9% | 15.7% | 36.2% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $6,000 |
| 2 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.196 | 38.8% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 40.0% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
| 3 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.395 | 0.236 | 37.9% | 5.4% | 19.0% | 35.9% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,900 |
| 4 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.161 | 32.3% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 41.7% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 5 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.291 | 0.149 | 37.8% | 8.7% | 19.4% | 40.5% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $5,600 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.139 | 46.1% | 17.1% | 28.6% | 43.4% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,800 |
| 7 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.392 | 0.269 | 43.5% | 12.3% | 22.6% | 34.8% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 8 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.106 | 29.2% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 43.2% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/3B | $2,400 | 2B | $4,800 |
| 9 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.096 | 24.1% | 0.0% | 21.0% | 44.6% | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales
Stackability – RED
Detroit at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
| Detroit | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||
 | Daniel Norris |  | Erasmo Ramirez | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| TB -111 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.297 | 26.9% | 10.2% | 30.7% | 36.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.374 | 32.5% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 44.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 36.4% | 7.5% | 19.2% | 40.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.288 | 23.6% | 4.3% | 18.6% | 57.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Daniel Norris | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 13 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 15 | 4.16 | 3.20 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 39.7% | 34.4% | 13.0% | |
Norris shut down the Indians in Cleveland in his last start, but he has as many walks as strikeouts this season. Eventually, that is going to catch up to a pitcher, regardless of his talent level. At the very least, Norris is an intriguing GPP play in the early slate. He has an above-average strikeout rate and he’s facing a Rays’ lineup that is filled with high strikeout batters. In fact, eight of their nine projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 21% against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: There is some risk here, but Norris is in play in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.
| Erasmo Ramirez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $9,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 1 | 4.05 | 3.77 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 52.6% | 27.0% | 19.7% | |
Ramirez has already made five appearances out of the bullpen this season, but will be called upon for a spot start today against the Tigers. He has yet to throw more than 46 pitches this year and will likely only last four or five innings at most. Even if the Rays would let him throw 90+ pitches, he wouldn’t be a great fantasy option. He has a below-average stirkeout rate and is facing a talented Tigers’ offense.
Quick Breakdown: He likely won’t pitch deep enough into the game to even be eligible for the win.
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
We don’t have a large sample size for Erasmo Ramirez in the last two years, so it’s better to look at his career splits. He has allowed a .309 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .319 wOBA to right-handed hitters. It’s also important to point out that the Tigers will likely see a few extra relievers, so we shouldn’t place too much emphasis on this matchup. Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera are the preferred targets here.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.182 | 34.3% | 6.6% | 17.0% | 34.0% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.216 | 38.8% | 7.0% | 24.0% | 31.4% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.258 | 41.4% | 10.3% | 16.6% | 40.6% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,200 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.184 | 40.6% | 8.0% | 15.5% | 36.7% | C | $2,600 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Tyler Collins | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.172 | 35.7% | 7.5% | 25.2% | 33.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,400 |
| 6 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.228 | 0.074 | 28.9% | 5.4% | 27.6% | 42.4% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,600 |
| 7 | Andrew Romine | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.121 | 26.1% | 6.0% | 22.3% | 46.8% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $2,200 | SS | $4,300 |
| 8 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.143 | 28.6% | 12.5% | 21.9% | 57.1% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,800 | IF/OF | $5,400 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.061 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 55.8% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,100 |
Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera
Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Tyler Collins
Stackability – YELLOW
Tampa Bay
Even though Daniel Norris is an intriguing tournament play, that says more about the slate than it does the Rays’ offense, who are actually in a pretty good spot. Norris has struggled with his command at times and has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons. Steven Souza, Evan Longoria, Rickie Weeks, and Derek Norris all bat from the right side and all have at least a 35% hard contact rate against southpaws.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.148 | 36.6% | 5.6% | 37.1% | 40.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.160 | 31.5% | 10.9% | 23.5% | 43.7% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.200 | 35.3% | 7.6% | 21.8% | 31.9% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,100 |
| 4 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.302 | 0.158 | 29.8% | 9.7% | 26.9% | 47.6% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 5 | Rickie Weeks | RIGHT | 0.420 | 0.370 | 53.7% | 13.1% | 22.6% | 37.0% | OF | $2,200 | 1B | $2,700 | IF/OF | $5,200 |
| 6 | Derek Norris | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.122 | 41.6% | 9.3% | 21.3% | 31.7% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
| 7 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.283 | 0.093 | 39.0% | 4.8% | 28.8% | 50.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
| 8 | Daniel Robertson | RIGHT | 0.381 | 0.091 | 40.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 40.0% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,200 |
| 9 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.153 | 32.3% | 8.3% | 33.9% | 51.7% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
Elite Plays – Evan Longoria
Secondary Plays – Steven Souza, Rickie Weeks, Derek Norris
Stackability – YELLOW
Cleveland at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
| Cleveland | Minnesota | ||||||||||
 | Trevor Bauer |  | Ervin Santana | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CLE-106 | 9.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.305 | 36.6% | 7.5% | 25.6% | 39.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.273 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 17.4% | 47.5% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.325 | 28.1% | 9.1% | 17.2% | 55.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.286 | 30.0% | 7.0% | 22.5% | 38.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Trevor Bauer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 30 | 4.14 | 4.49 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 48.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | |
Bauer was scheduled to pitch yesterday, but the game was rained out. He is an easy pitcher to overlook in this slate. His strikeout rate is close to league-average, he doesn’t have the best command, and he is pitching on the road. The Twins’ offense is a lot better than people realize and they haven’t been striking out as often as they did a season ago. The pitching options are limited in the early only slate, but I see more downside than upside for Bauer.
Quick Breakdown: Deep GPP flier at best.
| Ervin Santana | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $15,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 33 | 4.25 | 3.05 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 43.1% | 28.5% | 19.1% | |
Santana is a streaky pitcher. His strikeouts come and go and this appears to be a good time to target him. In his first three starts of the season, he has struck out 15 batters while only giving up a single earned run. When looking at his pitching velocity and swinging strike rates, they look similar to a year ago, so we should expect some regression to hit soon. I prefer Santana over Bauer, but the Indians have a very capable offense, so know that there is some risk heading into it.
Quick Breakdown: Viable GPP play.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Ervin Santana isn’t exactly a great matchup for a hitter. He has close to a league-average strikeout rate and he does an excellent job of limiting hard contact against him. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. This Indians’ offense is talented enough to score some runs on anyone, but I’m not really seeing any standout plays in this spot.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.384 | 0.281 | 39.2% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 37.5% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B/OF | $4,500 | 1B | $8,700 |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.159 | 27.9% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 48.7% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $4,500 | SS | $8,700 |
| 3 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.260 | 0.086 | 38.3% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 51.1% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $8,800 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.257 | 37.9% | 10.6% | 20.4% | 38.7% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $8,800 |
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.161 | 25.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 38.7% | 3B | $4,000 | 2B | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.172 | 28.1% | 4.8% | 16.0% | 35.3% | OF | $2,900 | 3B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 7 | Yandy Diaz | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.040 | 63.2% | 10.7% | 21.4% | 63.2% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $5,700 |
| 8 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.174 | 0.137 | 30.4% | 3.3% | 27.1% | 39.2% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 9 | Abraham Almonte | SWITCH | 0.298 | 0.105 | 31.4% | 6.9% | 20.1% | 46.2% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez
Stackability – ORANGE
Minnesota
The Twins are surprisingly one of my favorite offenses in the early slate. With Max Kepler and Joe Mauer swinging the bat well and with Miguel Sano showing a little more patience at the plate, this is an offense to be reckoned with. In the last two seasons, Trevor Bauer has allowed a higher wOBA to righties (.325), but a higher hard contact rate to lefties (36%). A Twins’ stack is certainly viable here in tournaments and I don’t mind using a few bats in cash games as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.259 | 32.8% | 8.7% | 19.4% | 38.1% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,700 |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.129 | 32.2% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 48.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.231 | 40.9% | 11.5% | 35.9% | 33.5% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.220 | 34.4% | 10.2% | 19.2% | 44.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 5 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.128 | 30.5% | 17.0% | 25.8% | 36.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
| 6 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.196 | 37.0% | 13.5% | 31.8% | 42.4% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
| 7 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.116 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 34.3% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
| 8 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.179 | 34.1% | 3.4% | 24.3% | 45.2% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,300 | LF | $6,600 |
| 9 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.183 | 25.0% | 5.2% | 37.2% | 37.8% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler
Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman, Jason Castro
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
LA Angels at Houston – 2:10 PM ET
| LA Angels | Houston | ||||||||||
 | Matt Shoemaker |  | Lance McCullers | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| HOU-170 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.311 | 33.0% | 4.3% | 19.1% | 35.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 27.1% | 9.7% | 33.3% | 55.7% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.322 | 26.5% | 5.9% | 23.6% | 46.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.331 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 27.2% | 56.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Matt Shoemaker | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $15,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 30 | 3.92 | 4.07 | 21.2% | 5.1% | 40.1% | 30.2% | 17.6% | |
Shoemaker has a 21.7% strikeout rate in the last two seasons, but he’s one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball. There was a six week stretch last year when he had a strikeout rate close to 30%. He hasn’t looked great so far this season, but he did rack up seven strikeouts in his last start. The Astros are often known as a high strikeout team, but six of their nine projected starters today have a strikeout rate under 20% against righties. I’m a fan of the maker of shoes, but this isn’t the spot to utilize his talents.
Quick Breakdown: Deep GPP flier at best.
| Lance McCullers | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | $18,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 17 | 3.40 | 3.48 | 30.1% | 11.2% | 56.3% | 24.8% | 20.8% | |
McCullers is pretty clearly the number two pitcher in the early slate. In his last 17 starts, he has a strikeout rate over 30%. Sure, he walks a few more batters than we’d like to see, but the strikeouts more than make up for it. He has an elite ground ball rate, an elite strikeout rate, and he doesn’t give up hard contact. That all sounds pretty good, right? The Angels are a contact hitting team that doesn’t strike out often, but they lack power outside of Mike Trout.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The lethal combination for a hitter is facing a pitcher that has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and limits hard contact. Mike Trout can pop in any matchup and he does have a home run off of Lance McCullers in his career, but the rest of the Angels can be avoided in all formats.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yunel Escobar | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.076 | 27.7% | 6.0% | 11.9% | 57.7% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
| 2 | Kole Calhoun | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.163 | 35.4% | 10.1% | 17.6% | 38.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Mike Trout | RIGHT | 0.422 | 0.248 | 39.5% | 17.1% | 21.1% | 40.7% | OF | $5,000 | OF | $5,200 | CF | $10,000 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.167 | 34.8% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 43.9% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 5 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.189 | 33.0% | 5.2% | 17.2% | 40.9% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 6 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.103 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 18.2% | 62.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Andrelton Simmons | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.080 | 24.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 54.0% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.298 | 0.152 | 32.0% | 9.7% | 28.5% | 38.0% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $2,900 | SS | $5,700 |
| 9 | Martin Maldonado | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.153 | 28.7% | 13.2% | 21.5% | 46.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,400 | C | $4,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Mike Trout
Stackability – RED
Houston
Matt Shoemaker has allowed a higher wOBA to right-handed hitters (.322), but a higher hard contact rate to lefties (33%). Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here for both cash games and tournaments. This Astros’ lineup is loaded with talent and we have limited options in this early slate. They are my favorite offense to stack in both cash games and tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.174 | 30.8% | 11.1% | 24.0% | 49.9% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $4,700 | RF | $9,200 |
| 2 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.367 | 0.155 | 32.9% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 39.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.398 | 0.191 | 32.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 42.6% | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $4,900 | 2B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.182 | 36.1% | 9.9% | 21.3% | 50.7% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,800 | SS | $9,300 |
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.196 | 32.3% | 5.9% | 16.9% | 46.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,500 |
| 6 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.182 | 37.1% | 11.4% | 19.4% | 32.6% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
| 7 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.200 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 22.6% | 30.5% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/SS | $4,000 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 8 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.126 | 23.9% | 4.5% | 10.9% | 47.3% | 3B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 9 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.135 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 56.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,900 |
Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann or Evan Gattis
Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman
Stackability – GREEN
Philadelphia at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
| Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||||
 | Aaron Nola |  | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| NYM-180 | 6.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.304 | 30.1% | 8.3% | 22.5% | 55.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.302 | 31.9% | 7.7% | 28.6% | 45.8% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.309 | 27.2% | 3.6% | 28.0% | 56.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.248 | 25.2% | 3.3% | 29.6% | 56.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Aaron Nola | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $16,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 14 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 22 | 3.19 | 4.65 | 25.4% | 5.9% | 55.9% | 28.6% | 23.0% | |
Nola is a talented young pitcher that we are going to target often in DFS. He is a lot better than his 4.65 ERA suggests and that is evident in his peripheral stats. Since the start of last season, he has a 3.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4%. He has an elite ground ball rate and an elite soft contact rate. Basically, everything is lining up for a big season from Nola. The Mets have their ace on the mound tonight, but Nola is a sneaky leverage play against Noah Syndergaard in tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Viable GPP play.
| Noah Syndergaard | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $11,200 | Salary: | $11,800 | Salary: | $22,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 14 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 33 | 2.87 | 2.44 | 29.1% | 5.3% | 51.8% | 28.1% | 20.4% | |
In my pitcher rankings, Clayton Kershaw is in category all alone, then Syndergaard is at the next level, then there are five or six guys below those two. Syndergaard has been dominant in the last two seasons, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.1%. He doesn’t walk many batters, he has a high ground ball rate, and he limits the hard contact against him. The only thing that he doesn’t do well is hold runners, but that usually doesn’t cost him if the opposing team isn’t getting any hits. Stephen Strasburg is also in a good spot tonight, but Syndergaard is the clear number one in the main slate.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
For all of the reasons that we like Noah Syndergaard, we shouldn’t like the Phillies’ offense. He doesn’t allow hard contact and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. The only player that is even close to being on my radar is Cesar Hernandez. He is only $3,000 on DraftKings and if he somehow gets on base, should have no problem swiping a bag or two. Syndergaard is arguably the worst pitcher in baseball at holding runners.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.337 | 0.121 | 26.5% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 53.5% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
| 2 | Daniel Nava | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.113 | 35.5% | 6.6% | 19.2% | 37.4% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,600 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.159 | 28.8% | 9.6% | 19.6% | 42.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.156 | 29.5% | 6.6% | 16.4% | 44.8% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.191 | 37.0% | 10.9% | 27.3% | 39.2% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,300 |
| 6 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.225 | 35.1% | 5.1% | 23.2% | 40.2% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 7 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.172 | 32.4% | 6.4% | 27.0% | 48.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
| 8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.300 | 0.179 | 27.7% | 4.7% | 23.1% | 40.2% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | RIGHT | 0.108 | 0.036 | 7.1% | 6.3% | 46.9% | 83.3% | P | $7,900 | P | $8,500 | P | $16,500 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK)
Stackability – RED
NY Mets
Last night was a case where Vince Velasquez had a high strikeout rate, but also had bad numbers against left-handed pitching. This allowed us to look at the likes of Jay Bruce, who ended up hitting two home runs. Tonight is a different story. Aaron Bola also has a high strikeout rate, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA. He has also held them under a 31% hard contact rate. I can see the lefties in this lineup being popular, but they make for an attractive fade in my eyes.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.229 | 36.6% | 13.1% | 20.0% | 35.4% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,600 |
| 2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.202 | 35.0% | 6.4% | 18.3% | 34.9% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
| 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.250 | 38.4% | 7.8% | 20.9% | 36.3% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.288 | 39.6% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 35.7% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
| 5 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.153 | 34.2% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 35.7% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 6 | Lucas Duda | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.199 | 36.0% | 10.9% | 22.4% | 33.3% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 7 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.269 | 0.118 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 20.4% | 36.2% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $3,900 | SS | $7,600 |
| 8 | Rene Rivera | RIGHT | 0.236 | 0.093 | 28.2% | 5.1% | 26.7% | 48.3% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,300 | C | $4,400 |
| 9 | Noah Syndergaard | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.222 | 48.2% | 11.1% | 46.0% | 30.4% | P | $11,200 | P | $11,800 | P | $22,800 |