MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-04 19:54:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								NY Yankees
			Josh Tomlin							CC Sabathia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-200							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.385	0.376	40.8%	3.0%	16.1%	38.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.273	15.7%	8.2%	20.5%	58.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.363	35.0%	2.4%	18.6%	37.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.323	30.0%	7.4%	18.2%	47.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,400	Salary:		$8,600
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2017	26	4.17	4.98	18.6%	2.4%	39.6%	36.2%	14.0%
	2018	4	5.67	9.16	10.5%	4.2%	26.6%	45.6%	13.9%

We have 15 games to get through today, so I’ll try to save time here and there. If I’m not interested in a pitcher or in an offense, I’ll give a quick explanation and move on. This is a good segue into the slate, I want no part of Tomlin in any format. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact rate and he’s facing the Yankees on the road in the home run-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Quick Breakdown: The Tomlin fade is obvious. He may end up with negative fantasy points tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%
	2018	5	4.59	1.71	14.8%	4.6%	47.1%	30.6%	25.9%

Sabathia owns a 1.71 ERA through five starts, but his peripheral statistics success some regression moving forward. At this point of his career, he’s a low strikeout pitcher that relies on a high ground ball rate and a high soft contact rate. When it comes to DFS, we want pitchers that can make up for mistakes with a high strikeout rate. Sabathia doesn’t exactly fit the mold.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia doesn’t offer enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration against the Indians.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have plenty of firepower in their lineup, but I rarely load up on hitters against CC Sabathia. He has an above-average ground ball rate and one of the highest soft contact rates of any starter in baseball. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Outside of Francisco Lindor as a one-off in tournaments, we can avoid the Indians’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.372	0.388	0.216	41.1%	8.2%	13.3%	39.8%	SS	$4,600	SS	$4,800	SS	$8,900
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.306	0.355	0.159	30.1%	9.1%	19.4%	42.1%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,500
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.372	0.452	0.240	37.4%	6.3%	10.3%	40.0%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,700	IF/OF	$8,900
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.309	0.427	0.073	25.4%	3.8%	11.3%	49.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,500
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.390	0.415	0.214	37.3%	17.9%	22.4%	40.5%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.345	0.371	0.241	37.0%	8.3%	22.5%	39.5%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,200
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.340	0.408	0.248	41.3%	9.2%	27.6%	39.6%	C	$3,000	C	$3,400	C	$6,400
8	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.330	0.346	0.152	24.4%	9.0%	19.8%	40.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,600	LF	$4,900
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.286	0.286	0.105	25.2%	7.7%	18.6%	44.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top stacks of the slate. The only argument against them is their ownership, but hopefully it won’t be too high in a 15-game slate. They are playing at home and they are facing Josh Tomlin, who currently has more walks than strikeouts. He also has an alarming low ground ball rate with a 46% hard contact rate. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .376 xwOBA to lefties and a .363 xwOBA to righties. Stack up the Yankees in tournaments and load up on their bats in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.330	0.250	0.171	31.3%	11.5%	18.9%	44.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,500
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.443	0.361	0.342	44.0%	16.3%	30.0%	35.8%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.324	0.386	0.263	29.1%	6.4%	11.9%	34.2%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,000	SS	$9,800
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.370	0.347	0.293	37.7%	10.4%	27.9%	46.2%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,800
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.383	0.442	0.249	36.9%	7.1%	22.8%	42.3%	C	$4,200	C	$4,900	C	$9,400
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.353	0.367	0.215	31.7%	17.0%	20.1%	41.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.411	0.383	0.297	43.1%	1.3%	22.4%	46.6%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.320	0.390	0.250	42.1%	5.2%	44.2%	36.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,100	1B	$7,400
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.320	0.306	0.103	29.2%	6.3%	18.8%	33.3%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,500	SS	$6,900

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Washington
			Nick Pivetta							Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-127							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.322	28.9%	9.9%	23.9%	43.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.234	0.260	24.0%	6.9%	24.2%	50.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.377	0.362	37.2%	7.9%	24.6%	44.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.305	31.2%	10.3%	22.8%	45.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%
	2018	6	3.40	3.27	25.4%	5.2%	45.5%	23.1%	17.6%

Pivetta isn’t a pitcher that most baseball fans have heard of, but our job as DFS players is to know every single player on every single team. He’s actually off to a nice start this season, posting a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. His ground ball rate is up and he has done a nice job of limiting hard contact. His matchup against the Nationals isn’t perfect, but it’s better than it could be if Washington was at full strength. I would have some interest in Pivetta, but the price point is a little too high for my liking.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t hate the Pivetta play in tournaments, but wish he was a little cheaper across the industry.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,300
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2017	32	4.41	2.96	22.7%	9.6%	45.8%	29.3%	21.9%
	2018	6	3.88	2.67	25.0%	9.5%	48.5%	30.9%	11.3%

Gonzalez sets up well tonight, which means we should all fade him. Anytime we expect him to pitch well, he tends to struggle. Gonzalez isn’t a bad play here, but he nibbles a bit too much for my liking. Rather than throwing strikes, he tries to work the corners. This leads to more balls, which leads to a higher pitch count and a higher walk rate. While the Phillies have some strikeouts in their lineup, they also have five batters with at least a 12% walk rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I expect Gio to be popular tonight, but I’ll draw my line in the sand and look elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

We can afford to be picky in large slates, so even though I won’t have any shares of Gio Gonzalez, I will also be fading most of the Phillies’ offense. Over the last two seasons, Gonzalez has held both let and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Rhys Hoskins is the lone tournament play here. He boasts a .454 xwOBA and a 48% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.360	0.419	0.154	25.7%	12.9%	11.4%	57.5%	2B	$3,800	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,700
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.454	0.319	0.361	47.7%	27.3%	20.5%	31.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,800	1B	$8,900
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.306	0.336	0.169	30.4%	3.6%	23.2%	51.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.365	0.440	0.268	40.6%	12.3%	18.5%	44.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,700
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.342	0.330	0.153	31.4%	13.1%	10.0%	49.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,400
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.319	0.382	0.199	32.9%	7.4%	13.2%	45.6%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
7	Pedro Florimon	SWITCH	0.380	0.292	0.222	23.1%	14.3%	23.8%	30.8%	OF	$2,000	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,600
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.231	0.381	0.038	34.4%	8.6%	36.2%	53.1%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	C	$5,800
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.069	0.215	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	50.0%	80.0%	P	$7,500	P	$7,500	P	$14,900

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Aaron Altherr

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals’ offense has been firing on all cylinders this week, despite missing a few of their best hitters. Tonight’s matchup against Nick Pivetta sounds better than it actually is on paper. He has pitched well this season, showing good control and limiting hard contact. He’s also a reverse-splits pitcher, which limits the appeal of Bryce Harper and Matt Adams, who both project to be popular in tournaments. I’m not saying that we can’t play Harper and Adams, but a fade does make sense if you are trying to leverage the field. If you want to play hitters here, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman have the splits in their favor against Pivetta.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.432	0.403	0.346	37.0%	19.0%	16.8%	37.0%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.328	0.329	0.180	30.1%	7.8%	18.3%	52.0%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,400
3	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.368	0.543	0.278	40.0%	7.9%	23.8%	36.0%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,000	1B	$7,700
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.378	0.453	0.242	40.3%	6.7%	23.7%	46.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,600
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.316	0.307	0.167	30.7%	4.7%	20.8%	59.0%	2B	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.295	0.318	0.186	31.9%	7.8%	31.4%	44.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.311	0.409	0.118	28.4%	8.5%	17.5%	41.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,100	C	$5,900
8	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.148	0.189	0.000	11.1%	5.8%	42.0%	57.1%	P	$8,800	P	$10,200	P	$19,300
9	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.269	0.337	0.073	20.6%	8.8%	19.9%	53.8%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,000	2B	$5,600

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								NY Mets
			German Marquez							Zack Wheeler
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-117							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.314	30.7%	8.7%	17.7%	48.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.346	37.6%	10.4%	26.7%	41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.335	37.0%	6.9%	24.1%	42.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.347	27.7%	9.7%	17.2%	51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
German Marquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,200
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2017	29	4.27	4.39	21.0%	7.0%	45.2%	34.5%	17.7%
	2018	6	4.74	5.14	20.8%	12.3%	45.8%	29.4%	18.8%

Marquez doesn’t have the skillset that we are looking for in a pitcher. In six starts this season, he owns a 4.74 SIERA with an average strikeout rate and a high walk rate. The Mets’ offense is underrated and Marquez is facing them on the road as a small underdog. In a 15-game slate, we can find better options.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2017	17	4.64	5.21	21.0%	10.4%	47.5%	32.8%	18.3%
	2018	4	4.10	4.09	22.1%	8.4%	47.6%	26.2%	21.5%

Wheeler isn’t a pitcher that we trust when it comes to DFS, but there is a lot to like in a matchup at home against the Rockies. Colorado tends to struggle on the road and they have five batters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 24% against right-handed pitching. We always prefer to target Wheeler against right-handed heavy lineups and he could face six of them tonight. He’s shown a slightly above-average strikeout rate and has done a nice job of limiting hard contact this season.

Quick Breakdown: At a price of $7,100 on DraftKings, Wheeler is on my short list of potential SP2 targets.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks and have a low implied run total. I wouldn’t look to stack this offense, but the left-handed bats of Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, and Carlos Gonzalez are in play for tournaments. Since the beginning of last season, Zack Wheeler has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.378	0.381	0.298	40.0%	10.6%	20.2%	35.4%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,300	CF	$9,700
2	David Dahl	LEFT	0.373	0.245	0.368	41.7%	9.1%	31.8%	58.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.349	0.490	0.237	36.5%	9.3%	17.9%	36.1%	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,100	3B	$10,100
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.334	0.424	0.193	30.6%	11.9%	19.6%	44.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,700
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.283	0.392	0.175	37.6%	7.9%	33.7%	34.3%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.250	0.292	0.093	27.5%	5.6%	24.6%	64.8%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,500	LF	$6,700
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.331	0.307	0.241	38.0%	10.3%	29.8%	34.4%	C	$2,300	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
8	Daniel Castro	RIGHT		0.149	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	83.3%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,400	SS	$4,700
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.165	0.390	0.026	17.2%	0.0%	35.6%	78.3%	P	$6,000	P	$6,200	P	$12,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

This seems like a good spot to load up on the Mets’ offense, but I’m a bit hesitant after seeing the splits for German Marquez. Over the last two seasons, he has held lefties to a .314 xwOBA with a 31% hard contact rate and a 48% ground ball rate. Righties have fared much better against Marquez and the Mets only have a few right-handed hitters in their lineup. In the end, the Mets aren’t a bad offense to target, but they aren’t going to make the final cut in my rosters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.415	0.324	0.205	39.0%	15.9%	24.0%	39.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
2	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.390	0.345	0.258	39.3%	15.7%	21.7%	37.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.352	0.377	0.182	36.8%	9.5%	16.4%	40.3%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,000	SS	$7,600
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.338	0.351	0.228	39.5%	6.8%	22.2%	33.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.391	0.285	0.255	40.1%	10.2%	20.7%	33.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.355	0.329	0.180	31.8%	15.0%	21.6%	37.7%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
7	Jose Lobaton	SWITCH	0.348	0.399	0.135	33.3%	12.2%	25.9%	48.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
8	Zack Wheeler	RIGHT	0.153	0.217	0.036	11.8%	3.3%	40.0%	53.8%	P	$6,100	P	$7,100	P	$13,700
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.251	0.318	0.097	24.8%	2.4%	29.3%	49.6%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Cincinnati
			Wei-Yin Chen							Sal Romano
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-115							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.301	24.2%	4.9%	14.6%	51.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.345	0.334	35.2%	10.8%	18.0%	44.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.283	35.0%	8.0%	19.5%	31.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.300	29.5%	8.9%	16.6%	55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wei-Yin Chen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,300
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2017	5	4.61	3.82	18.9%	6.8%	36.6%	29.9%	24.7%
	2018	1	5.35	1.69	13.6%	9.1%	40.0%	43.8%	6.3%

Chen’s start against the Rockies looked fine in the game log, but a 5.35 SIERA and a 14% strikeout rate leave me unimpressed. After showing signs of life in Baltimore a few years ago, I really thought a move to Miami would turn him into an above-average pitcher, but that hasn’t come to fruition. Even though the Reds’ lineup looks ugly outside of a few hitters, I’d like to see Chen string together a couple of quality starts before playing him in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags here — low strikeout rate, potential rust, and a bad ballpark.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sal Romano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2017	16	4.72	4.45	19.0%	9.6%	50.4%	32.6%	21.5%
	2018	6	5.51	4.65	12.4%	10.2%	49.5%	31.1%	25.5%

Ray’s younger brother Sal will be on the mound for Cincinnati. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.51 SIERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He does keep the ball on the ground and limit soft contact, but that’s more of a reason to fade the Marlins than it is to play Romano. The matchup is tempting, but a 4.7% swinging strike rate is the final nail in the coffin for Romano.

Quick Breakdown: This game features two bad offenses and still has a total of 9.0 runs.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a significant ballpark upgrade playing in Cincinnati and they draw a decent matchup against Sal Romano. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour are both viable one-off targets in this ballpark and they should garner very little ownership in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.342	0.437	0.174	34.3%	5.4%	18.1%	48.8%	C	$3,500	C	$4,300	C	$8,000
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.316	0.262	0.163	34.7%	6.8%	21.9%	37.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,700
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.299	0.287	0.135	30.4%	4.1%	19.6%	53.5%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.402	0.367	0.253	40.0%	11.4%	19.9%	41.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.301	0.291	0.100	28.0%	11.6%	25.0%	57.0%	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,500	3B	$6,700
6	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.286	0.280	0.109	21.1%	3.8%	14.3%	47.7%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,700
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.305	0.327	0.089	23.9%	7.4%	11.1%	53.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700	2B	$5,500
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.256	0.329	0.095	32.3%	7.6%	36.4%	54.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.098	0.148	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	30.0%	50.0%	P	$5,800	P	$6,100	P	$12,300

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (Cash), Justin Bour (Cash), J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

The Reds don’t quite have enough firepower in their lineup to warrant a full stack tonight, but there are a few intriguing plays against Wei-Yin Chen. We are still working with a small sample size (six starts), but Chen has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to righties over the last two seasons. Before last season, he gave up a ton of home runs to righties, which makes Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall borderline elite plays in all formats. Jose Peraza and Joey Votto are decent options, but I would only use them in a stack and as I mentioned, that’s not my plan this evening.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.299	0.433	0.073	29.4%	8.9%	15.6%	41.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.275	0.284	0.050	23.4%	4.1%	12.4%	57.6%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.399	0.499	0.231	34.5%	17.4%	17.0%	44.6%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,200
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.368	0.456	0.229	46.0%	15.9%	24.1%	42.0%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,700	3B	$8,400
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.374	0.375	0.285	36.1%	9.9%	22.7%	39.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.254	0.335	0.165	28.7%	4.3%	28.4%	48.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,300
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.302	0.365	0.122	29.2%	11.6%	18.9%	63.5%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
8	Sal Romano	RIGHT	0.049	0.211	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	83.3%	100.0%	P	$5,600	P	$6,300	P	$13,100
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.220	0.219	0.087	15.5%	3.5%	26.2%	43.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,500

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Tampa Bay
			J.A. Happ							Andrew Kittredge
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-148							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.210	0.239	20.2%	3.2%	24.2%	56.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.329	33.3%	17.8%	22.2%	32.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.310	28.7%	7.8%	25.0%	44.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.337	30.3%	3.8%	13.8%	57.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$22,800
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	25	4.11	3.53	22.7%	7.4%	46.9%	26.7%	20.3%
	2018	6	2.49	3.50	34.0%	4.8%	48.3%	27.6%	19.5%

Happ is pitching on the road and he is priced up across the industry. That doesn’t sound like a great combination, yet he’s still my favorite pitcher of the slate. Outside of DFS circles, Happ doesn’t get the credit that he deserves. In six starts this season, he has a 2.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. He has an above-average ground ball rate and is one of the best at limiting hard contact. His velocity is up a tick from last season and he’s generating more swings and misses, so perhaps this strikeout rate is sustainable. As for his matchup, the Rays’ projected lineup has a .299 xwOBA and a 28% strikeout rate against southpaws. That sounds pretty good, right?

Quick Breakdown: Even at his inflated price point, Happ is my favorite SP1 on the board this fine evening.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Kittredge
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30
	2017	0	4.15	1.76	21.2%	9.1%	46.5%	34.8%	17.4%
	2018	2	4.78	6.23	11.9%	8.5%	54.3%	27.7%	4.3%

Kittredge has a cool name and a decent game. The problem is that his skillset translates better out of the bullpen than it does as a starter. If you look at his Triple-A numbers, they are very impressive, but most of his outings were in relief. This will essentially amount to a bullpen start for the Rays, as Kittredge hasn’t thrown more than 57 pitches in any outing this season.

Quick Breakdown: Even if we liked the spot for Kittredge, he’s not going to pitch deep enough into the game to pick up the win or pay off his salary.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

These bullpen starts are always tough to figure out and then can be tough on the opposing offense. They will likely see a different pitcher with each at-bat, so it is hard to make adjustments with each plate appearance. It doesn’t do a lot of good to focus on a matchup against Andrew Kittredge because he’s not expecting to pitch more than a few innings. I’m not opposed to the Blue Jays here, but I typically like to work with more information.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.353	0.382	0.249	35.4%	15.4%	23.7%	31.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,100
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.429	0.457	0.350	39.5%	7.0%	26.4%	37.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,200
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.386	0.365	0.268	35.2%	15.3%	23.0%	42.0%	3B	$3,500	3B	$5,000	3B	$10,000
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.322	0.398	0.205	31.8%	7.9%	13.6%	38.3%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600	2B	$7,700
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.311	0.404	0.142	27.6%	5.4%	15.9%	44.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.343	0.361	0.187	30.5%	13.3%	21.8%	51.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
7	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.355	0.293	0.180	36.0%	8.0%	21.9%	46.7%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,400
8	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.410	0.330	0.121	32.0%	2.9%	23.5%	32.0%	OF	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,100	LF	$5,800
9	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.288	0.264	0.178	26.9%	3.5%	13.2%	45.8%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw the worst matchup of the slate and are a bottom five offense against left-handed pitching. This is not an ideal combination, especially in this ballpark. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, J.A. Happ has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.292	0.332	0.140	33.0%	5.6%	16.1%	42.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,900
2	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.368	0.370	0.270	40.7%	5.3%	27.5%	33.7%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.256	0.240	0.033	38.1%	0.0%	30.0%	57.1%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,800
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.370	0.498	0.209	40.8%	6.3%	12.6%	53.9%	C	$3,200	C	$3,800	C	$7,300
5	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.334	0.412	0.222	39.7%	17.1%	25.2%	33.3%	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,500	2B	$6,400
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.255	0.279	0.137	29.1%	3.5%	34.0%	34.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,600
7	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.330	0.453	0.064	17.7%	22.2%	20.6%	47.1%	OF	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,600	IF/OF	$5,100
8	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.194	0.233	0.078	27.3%	1.5%	32.8%	57.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,400
9	Johnny Field	RIGHT	0.290	0.238	0.200	44.4%	6.3%	37.5%	55.6%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,500

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 4th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Aaron Altherr

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (Cash), Justin Bour (Cash), J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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