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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-10-01 02:08:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
Article Image Yovani Gallardo Article Image Michael Pineda
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -125 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.357 7 28.7% 20.1% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.341 9 36.0% 28.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.355 9 26.9% 13.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.323 16 29.8% 26.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,800
FPPG: 18.8 FPPG: 8.1
Pitcher Rating: 42.0 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 94.0 4.01 5.31 22.5% 7.9% 7.5% 45.9% 31.1% 27.4%
2016 22 91.1 5.29 5.63 16.3% 11.4% 6.5% 43.4% 37.0% 27.6%
2015 33 97.8 4.59 3.42 15.3% 8.6% 6.5% 49.3% 28.7% 25.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.87 — K%: 15.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.62 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

I often compare Gallardo to Ubaldo Jimenez. Both pitchers are past their prime, both struggle with their command, and both have a below-average strikeout rate this season. Both, however, have been in good form over the last month or so. Jimenez pitched a shutout against the Blue Jays last night to silence his critics and Gallardo will look to do the same tonight. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 17th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Michael Pineda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 29.8 FPPG: 16.0
Pitcher Rating: 82.0 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 88.2 3.12 1.90 33.7% 9.9% 15.2% 47.3% 29.1% 25.5%
2016 31 94.6 3.36 4.68 27.5% 6.8% 14.2% 46.1% 31.9% 32.4%
2015 27 94.4 3.09 4.37 23.4% 3.1% 11.9% 48.2% 29.9% 30.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.47 — K%: 26.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 25.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327

Pineda is finally starting to pitch like the guy that we all thought he could be. In his last five starts, he has a 1.90 ERA with a strikeout rate of 33.7%. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked third in team wOBA and 21st in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Of the two pitchers in this game, I’d much rather side with the one with higher strikeout upside. He may not be a great cash game target, but Pineda’s high ceiling puts him in consideration for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles picked up two huge wins in a row against the Blue Jays in Toronto. They are now a game and a half clear of the Tigers for the second and final wildcard spot in the American League. The Tigers’ game was rained out yesterday though, so one loss by the Orioles could even up the two records. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against Michael Pineda, who has been in impeccable form over the last month of play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.347 0.196 32.6% 0.273 OF $3,400 OF $3,500
2 Chris Davis LEFT 0.349 0.270 42.4% 0.210 1B $3,000 1B $3,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.363 0.253 34.9% 0.241 3B $3,400 3B/SS $3,900
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.385 0.299 39.8% 0.376 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
5 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.358 0.272 39.4% 0.361 3B $3,500 1B $3,300
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.329 0.194 28.8% 0.176 2B $3,000 2B $3,100
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.314 0.180 31.6% 0.349 C $2,700 C $3,300
8 Michael Bourn LEFT 0.281 0.112 25.3% 0.207 OF $2,300 OF $3,400
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.305 0.125 31.8% 0.326 SS $2,400 SS $2,400
Team Averages — 0.337 0.211 34.1% 0.280 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are a below-average offense against right-handed pitching and their hot streak came to an end more than a month ago. The good news is that they get to face Yovani Gallardo, who is typically a cure for offensive woes. In 2016, Gallardo has allowed a .355+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.329 0.107 26.2% 0.360 OF $3,300 OF $4,500
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.322 0.128 26.8% 0.196 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.469 0.374 41.1% 0.431 C $3,800 C $5,200
4 Brian McCann LEFT 0.330 0.176 36.9% 0.319 C $2,800 C $3,500
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.311 0.163 30.7% 0.285 2B $2,600 2B $3,700
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.307 0.182 25.1% 0.361 SS $2,900 SS $3,700
7 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.283 0.179 32.5% 0.435 1B $3,100 1B $4,300
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.312 0.157 33.6% 0.202 3B $2,600 3B $3,200
9 Mason Williams LEFT 0.351 0.000 30.0% 0.337 OF $2,700
Team Averages — 0.335 0.163 31.4% 0.325 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
Article Image Andrew Cashner Article Image A.J. Cole
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -135 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.376 10 39.8% 19.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.326 3 24.5% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.332 7 29.7% 18.7% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.324 4 23.9% 23.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 20.4 FPPG: 9.6
Pitcher Rating: 60.0 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 88.0 4.83 7.17 24.5% 15.7% 6.6% 47.5% 23.7% 27.9%
2016 26 88.2 4.68 5.13 19.2% 10.2% 7.3% 47.8% 32.3% 34.6%
2015 31 100.3 4.00 4.34 20.5% 8.2% 8.2% 47.4% 29.9% 30.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.51 — K%: 23.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.81 — K%: 16.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.365

Cashner is having a down season overall, posting a 4.68 ERA with a walk rate over 10%. He used to be a streamer when he was with the Padres, but those days are long gone. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Nationals, who are just trying to get healthy before the postseason starts. While Cashner may face a few of the Nationals’ backups tonight, he’s still not a recommended fantasy option.

A.J. Cole
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,900
FPPG: 24.1 FPPG: 12.8
Pitcher Rating: 72.2 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 81.4 4.07 5.16 25.3% 9.1% 9.8% 35.9% 51.6% 21.9%
2016 7 89.6 4.32 5.09 24.3% 9.2% 10.2% 31.3% 56.6% 24.2%
2015 1 87.0 3.27 5.79 20.5% 2.3% 8.3% 36.4% 36.4% 32.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.40 — K%: 28.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.344
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.11 — K%: 19.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316

Cole may have a high ERA this season, but the 24.3% strikeout rate is promising. He is a ground ball pitcher that has limited the hard contact against him. There are some encouraging signs here and it could be the perfect night to take a shot on him in tournaments. The Marlins have really struggled offensively over the last month of play, ranking 29th in team wOBA. I could easily see Cole pitching six innings, striking out five or six batters, and picking up the win.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the fifth lowest implied team total in the slate. They draw a decent matchup against A.J. Cole, but their offense as a whole has been ice cold. I generally don’t like to target hitters against elite ground ball pitchers, especially when that high ground ball rate is accompanied by a low hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.289 0.077 18.0% 0.349 2B $3,100 2B $4,700
2 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.314 0.155 33.6% 0.241 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
3 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.303 0.104 26.4% 0.322 3B $3,000 3B $3,200
4 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.380 0.211 41.6% 0.232 OF $3,200 OF $4,400
5 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.331 0.237 39.4% 0.306 OF $3,800 OF $4,800
6 Justin Bour LEFT 0.352 0.234 37.0% 0.256 1B $3,000 1B $3,300
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.350 0.123 30.9% 0.246 C $2,500 C $3,800
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.261 0.072 30.8% 0.279 SS $2,200 SS $2,500
9 Andrew Cashner RIGHT 0.215 0.000 19.1% 0.439 P $6,400 P $4,300
Team Averages — 0.311 0.135 30.8% 0.297 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are all but locked into the two-seed in the National League, so their goal in the last three games is to get their players healthy. We will likely see their everyday starters get a game or two off, which helps explain whey they are such small favorites tonight. The matchup against Andrew Cashner is certainly a favorable one, as he has allowed a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.407 0.257 33.5% 0.428 OF $4,000 2B/OF $5,400
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.298 0.138 32.7% 0.329 OF $3,400 OF $3,700
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.339 0.184 36.7% 0.278 3B $3,500 3B $3,900
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.273 0.142 33.3% 0.303 1B $2,900 1B $3,500
5 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.372 0.270 41.2% 0.340 SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,500
6 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.347 0.143 36.0% 0.361 OF $2,200 OF $2,800
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.290 0.136 30.7% 0.209 SS $2,800 SS $3,100
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.323 0.125 28.1% 0.376 C $2,300 C $2,800
9 A.J. Cole RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $5,700 P $6,900
Team Averages — 0.294 0.155 30.2% 0.292 — — — —

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Stephen Drew

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Brian Goodwin

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
Article Image Robert Gsellman Article Image Alec Asher
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -140 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.269 0 35.7% 26.5% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.275 0 29.3% 8.3%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.296 1 22.4% 18.7% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.204 0 21.9% 12.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robert Gsellman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 28.0 FPPG: 14.6
Pitcher Rating: 70.9 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 91.4 3.56 2.17 23.5% 8.4% 7.7% 60.3% 20.5% 22.2%
2016 6 90.3 3.92 2.56 22.0% 8.8% 8.6% 54.4% 23.3% 27.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.59 — K%: 23.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.265
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.51 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316

Gsellman has been sharp in his first major league stint, posting a 2.56 ERA (3.96 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 22%. He has induced an elite ground ball rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. He draws one of the top matchups in the slate, as he faces a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 29th in team wOBA and 26th in team K% against right-handed pitching. I like targeting teams that still have something to play for and the Mets are still fighting for the wildcard in the National League.

Alec Asher
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,700
FPPG: 26.0 FPPG: 13.2
Pitcher Rating: 35.8 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 80.0 5.39 1.66 10.2% 4.6% 5.3% 35.7% 40.0% 26.0%
2016 4 80.0 5.38 1.66 10.2% 4.6% 5.3% 35.7% 40.0% 26.0%
2015 7 71.6 5.34 9.31 11.6% 7.3% 7.8% 36.1% 45.4% 32.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 8.07 — K%: 13.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.428
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.32 — K%: 7.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.255

Asher is one of the easiest pitchers to gloss over in this slate. His strikeout rate on the season is right around 10%, which isn’t good. He doesn’t walk a ton of hitters, but that’s really the only positive statistic that I can quote. There isn’t enough upside for Asher to warrant consideration tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are one of my favorite offenses to stack tonight and they should come in at a relatively low ownership. New York has the 12th highest implied team total in the slate, but they are in a must win situation against the Phillies. They draw an excellent matchup against Alec Asher, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.290 0.138 25.6% 0.332 3B $3,300 3B/SS $4,800
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.345 0.213 35.1% 0.440 SS $3,400 SS $4,700
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.357 0.249 38.0% 0.323 OF $4,100 OF $4,600
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.346 0.239 37.5% 0.482 OF $3,700 OF $4,800
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.356 0.280 39.9% 0.363 OF $3,400 OF $4,900
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.421 0.234 25.8% 0.400 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,300
7 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.348 0.209 38.0% 0.399 1B $2,700 1B $4,300
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.241 0.103 29.9% 0.248 C $2,300 C $2,700
9 Robert Gsellman RIGHT 0.073 0.000 50.0% 0.176 P $6,900 P $6,600
Team Averages — 0.309 0.185 35.5% 0.351 — — — —

Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce, T.J. Rivera

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies are ranked 20th or worse in every single offensive category listed below. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against Robert Gsellman, who has pitched well in his first six major league starts. Gsellman is a ground ball pitcher that limits the hard contact against him. The Phillies’ offense can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.333 0.117 27.5% 0.409 2B $3,100 2B $4,400
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.300 0.178 27.5% 0.271 SS $2,700 SS $4,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.362 0.169 30.2% 0.463 OF $3,800 OF $5,000
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.299 0.159 29.5% 0.380 3B $2,800 3B $4,900
5 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.311 0.272 45.8% 0.504 1B $2,700 1B $3,900
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.306 0.177 32.4% 0.281 C $3,000 C $3,600
7 Cody Asche LEFT 0.278 0.144 34.1% 0.287 OF $2,100 OF $3,100
8 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.251 0.089 27.5% 0.189 OF $2,500 OF $3,400
9 Alec Asher RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.176 P $6,000 P $4,700
Team Averages — 0.271 0.145 28.3% 0.329 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
Article Image Jake Buchanan Article Image Josh Smith
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -120 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.000 0 0.0% 100.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.392 5 30.3% 16.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.671 1 66.7% 0.0% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.295 5 28.4% 21.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Buchanan
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,400 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 3.0 FPPG: 1.7
Pitcher Rating: 54.5 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 3.28 9.00 25.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7%
2016 0 0.0 3.28 9.00 25.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7%
2015 0 0.0 4.57 2.00 13.5% 10.8% 6.6% 57.7% 26.9% 25.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.25 — K%: 7.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.237
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.00 — K%: 18.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

Buchanan is making a spot start for the Cubs, who have already locked up the one-seed in the National League. He has yet to make a start this season and likely won’t be able to pitch very deep into tonight’s game. Regardless of the matchup, Buchanan doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration.

Josh Smith
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,000 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 8.2 FPPG: 4.0
Pitcher Rating: 52.3 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 78.0 4.59 3.18 19.6% 11.8% 9.1% 47.1% 32.4% 26.5%
2016 1 78.0 4.41 4.77 19.5% 10.4% 10.9% 44.9% 37.7% 29.2%
2015 7 94.6 5.00 6.89 18.6% 13.0% 8.6% 38.1% 34.3% 31.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.02 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.09 — K%: 16.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.385

Smith has done most of his work out of the bullpen this season, but he will draw a spot start tonight against the Cubs. While he may have the advantage of facing a lineup full of backups, he likely won’t pitch deep enough into the game to be eligible for the win. This could end up being a bullpen game with both teams throwing out spot starters tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are ranked eighth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but as we saw last night, they are starting to rest their everyday players with nothing to play for. There could be some intriguing value plays in their lineup tonight, but we have to wait to see who is actually playing to determine if there are any viable fantasy targets.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.359 0.169 29.3% 0.379 OF $4,000 OF $4,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.384 0.244 40.4% 0.358 3B $4,000 3B/OF $5,300
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.407 0.280 39.3% 0.387 1B $4,200 1B $4,600
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.350 0.162 32.7% 0.361 2B $3,100 2B $4,100
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.284 0.097 26.9% 0.361 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.312 0.160 29.1% 0.274 SS $2,400 SS $3,500
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.302 0.148 28.3% 0.374 SS $3,100 2B/3B $4,800
8 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.304 0.154 29.4% 0.292 C $2,400 C $3,400
9 Mike Montgomery LEFT 0.088 0.000 33.3% 0.293 P $5,700 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.310 0.157 32.1% 0.342 — — — —

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds have nothing to play for, but they also have no reason to rest their starters. They are an interesting offense to target tonight against Jake Buchanan, who hasn’t been great as a reliever this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are worth a look here, specifically Joey Votto and Adam Duvall.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.336 0.074 20.9% 0.359 SS $3,700 OF/SS $4,300
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.300 0.138 34.5% 0.238 3B $2,900 3B $3,300
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.426 0.251 42.0% 0.459 1B $3,900 1B $5,400
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.336 0.266 38.4% 0.359 OF $3,300 OF $4,900
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.326 0.128 28.2% 0.298 2B $2,900 2B $4,000
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.338 0.174 34.8% 0.390 OF $3,400 OF $3,900
7 Steve Selsky RIGHT 0.294 0.105 26.1% 0.433 OF $2,700 OF $2,900
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.321 0.133 31.4% 0.334 C $2,500 C $3,000
9 Josh Smith RIGHT 0.155 0.125 40.0% 0.293 P $4,000 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.315 0.155 32.9% 0.351 — — — —

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Toronto Boston
Article Image Marco Estrada Article Image Rick Porcello
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -145 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.268 11 27.0% 23.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.261 8 32.1% 21.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.294 12 36.4% 23.0% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.284 14 28.3% 21.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 32.3 FPPG: 17.6
Pitcher Rating: 44.2 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.8 4.47 4.39 26.3% 11.4% 12.3% 23.2% 59.4% 23.9%
2016 28 97.7 4.34 3.53 23.0% 9.0% 11.0% 33.1% 48.4% 31.5%
2015 28 104.0 4.64 3.13 18.1% 7.6% 9.9% 32.2% 52.3% 27.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.38 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275

Estrada seems to be breaking out of his slump. His numbers over the last month of play are close to his season long averages. The Blue Jays really need a strong start from him tonight, as they have lost two in a row and now hold a narrow 1.5-game lead over the Tigers. If they aren’t careful, Toronto could fall out of the postseason altogether. Estrada draws an awful matchup against the Red Sox, who have the best offense in baseball.

Rick Porcello
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $11,100
FPPG: 38.7 FPPG: 20.7
Pitcher Rating: 71.7 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 106.4 3.61 2.41 22.1% 1.4% 9.6% 37.1% 44.8% 29.5%
2016 32 103.3 3.76 3.11 21.2% 3.5% 8.1% 43.8% 37.4% 30.4%
2015 28 98.0 3.73 4.92 20.2% 5.2% 8.5% 45.7% 32.5% 32.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.49 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.28 — K%: 20.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Porcello has been in solid form over the last month of play, posting a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.1%. The Red Sox may have wrapped up the division, but they are still playing for seeding, so we should expect their everyday players to be in the lineup tonight. The main issue with Porcello is his matchup against the Blue Jays, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays really need a win tonight or else the pressure is only going to build. While they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they draw a difficult matchup against Rick Porcello. In addition to an above-average strikeout rate, Porcello has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.358 0.169 30.1% 0.281 2B $3,500 2B $3,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.407 0.278 41.1% 0.462 3B $4,600 3B $4,700
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.373 0.268 37.8% 0.366 1B $4,000 1B $4,000
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.217 41.6% 0.433 OF $3,700 OF $4,100
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.328 0.179 31.2% 0.320 C $2,900 C $2,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.329 0.202 34.6% 0.270 SS $3,200 SS $3,400
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.206 38.4% 0.259 OF $2,800 OF $3,300
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.289 0.106 25.6% 0.284 OF $2,800 OF $3,000
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.282 0.106 25.7% 0.483 OF $2,200 OF $2,900
Team Averages — 0.340 0.192 34.0% 0.351 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are ranked eighth or better in every single offensive category listed below. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Marco Estrada, who is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Estrada has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, but the Red Sox are so tough at home. You can target the Red Sox in tournaments tonight, although they may not be the best point-per-dollar plays.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.358 0.137 33.0% 0.263 2B $3,400 2B $3,800
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.339 0.145 29.4% 0.353 SS $3,800 SS $4,000
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.439 0.356 46.6% 0.429 1B $4,300 1B $5,300
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.391 0.210 33.2% 0.447 OF $4,200 OF $5,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.339 0.180 36.8% 0.439 1B $4,100 1B $4,000
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.383 0.266 38.6% 0.384 OF $3,600 OF $4,400
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.337 0.152 25.1% 0.319 OF $3,000 OF $3,100
8 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.423 0.250 33.9% 0.393 OF $3,100 OF $2,700
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.329 0.144 33.8% 0.118 C $2,900 C $2,800
Team Averages — 0.371 0.204 34.5% 0.349 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious