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MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-11 03:02:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Alex Cobb nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-141 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.485 25.0% 6.6% 14.8% 47.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 35.8% 8.4% 28.3% 45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 40.0% 6.2% 16.9% 52.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 30.4% 5.6% 26.9% 47.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank: 14 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 6 4.45 7.16 15.9% 6.4% 50.0% 32.3% 32.7%

After coming back from Tommy John surgery, Cobb struggled in his five starts last season. He showed promise in his first start of 2017, striking out four batters against the Yankees, while only giving up a single run in just over five innings of work. We should keep an eye on him moving forward, as he once possessed elite strikeout upside. He squares off against the Yankees yet again, although this time in Yankee Stadium. As an underdog on the road, we may want to wait at least one more start before targeting Cobb.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid until we see more.

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 33 3.35 4.92 27.5% 6.9% 46.3% 32.5% 32.7%

The baseball season didn’t officially start until Pineda gave up his first home run of the season. There may not be another pitcher in baseball that tilts the DFS community quite like Pineda. His peripheral stats are off the charts — 3.35 SIERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 46.3% ground ball rate — yet, he can’t seem to stay out of trouble. The high ERA keeps his salary low, which keeps most of us interested, which leads to more and more tilting when he performs poorly. I’d love to give up on him at this point, but he has all of the tools to be an above-average pitcher. Against a high strikeout team in the Rays, Pineda will once again be on my short list of arms.

Quick Breakdown: Play in GPPs and consider in cash if you are feeling froggy.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Michael Pineda has an above-average strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters and he doesn’t give out many free base passes. His peripherals also suggest some positive regression, but we’ve been saying that for a year now. With the short porch in right field, all of the left-handed hitters in this Rays’ lineup are in play. It doesn’t hurt that Pineda has allowed a .352 wOBA and a 35.2% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.338 0.263 31.5% 6.6% 23.5% 34.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.310 0.151 30.6% 9.9% 16.8% 44.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.359 0.260 36.5% 6.3% 21.4% 31.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.341 0.254 35.9% 7.8% 24.5% 44.3% 2B $2,900 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.325 0.165 31.5% 7.5% 31.0% 40.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.321 0.184 35.7% 8.4% 22.0% 43.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.237 0.139 31.3% 6.8% 33.8% 36.9% C $2,500 C $2,600 C $5,200
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.359 0.153 21.2% 10.5% 20.3% 57.8% OF $2,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
9 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.271 0.180 34.8% 4.4% 30.1% 45.3% SS $2,000 2B/SS $3,200 SS $6,300

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Miller, Steve Souza

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

If I’m going to stack one side from this game, it will be the Yankees. Even though the first meeting with these two pitchers ended with a Rays’ win, we need to see a another few starts from Alex Cobb before jumping to conclusions one way or the other. In his career, Cobb has significantly worse splits against lefties than he does against righties and as I mentioned above, left-handed hitters tend to fare well in Yankee Stadium thanks to the short porch in right field. There aren’t any individual hitters that stand out as great plays, but a Yankees’ stack is viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.336 0.109 26.1% 12.8% 15.9% 50.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.328 0.131 27.0% 9.6% 12.3% 47.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
3 Greg Bird LEFT 0.147 0.063 33.3% 11.1% 38.9% 25.0% 1B $2,400 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.340 0.194 35.5% 9.1% 17.3% 50.9% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.311 0.154 30.6% 3.3% 19.0% 50.9% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,900
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.325 0.163 32.6% 10.5% 26.3% 43.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
7 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.272 0.179 45.8% 7.5% 39.8% 39.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.240 0.113 25.0% 6.4% 21.8% 41.8% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.310 0.156 19.7% 3.0% 9.6% 51.7% 3B $2,200 3B/SS $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Greg Bird, Matt Holliday

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Detroit
bostonmlb Chris Sale detroitmlb Justin Verlander
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-105 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.251 27.0% 2.1% 31.4% 55.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 25.3% 7.6% 32.4% 29.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 32.7% 5.4% 24.8% 38.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 32.0% 5.1% 24.5% 37.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $24,000
Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 33 3.41 3.24 25.8% 4.9% 41.1% 37.8% 31.9%

Sale pitched well in his Red Sox debut, striking out seven batters in seven shutout innings against the Pirates. Even though his strikeout rate was down a bit last season, Sale should still be considered an elite strikeout pitcher. Red Sox fans will gladly take a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.8% over the course of this season. Sale draws a boom or bust matchup today against the Tigers in Detroit. The top of their lineup mashes left-handed pitching, but he should easily work his way through the bottom of the order.

Quick Breakdown: Playable in all formats.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 35 3.38 3.04 28.4% 6.4% 33.7% 47.5% 28.9%

This should be a fun battle to watch, as we have two aces on the mound and two elite offenses. Verlander actually had a better season than Sale a year ago, posting a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.4%. In DFS, we like targeting pitchers that throw a lot of strikes and generate a lot of swings and misses. Sale and Verlander both do that well. The Red Sox offense as a whole doesn’t look as intimidating this season and with Verlander pitching at home, I am giving him the smallest of edges over Sale. However, you can’t go wrong anchoring your lineup with either of these elite arms.

Quick Breakdown: Playable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Justin Verlander is one of those pitchers that I have a hard time recommending hitters against. He has an elite strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and he doesn’t give up hard contact to left or right-handed hitters. He is also extremely tough on lefties for a right-handed pitcher. The Red Sox may be able to squeeze a few runs in today, but this isn’t an offense that I want exposure to.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.356 0.132 33.4% 7.5% 10.1% 51.4% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.404 0.247 36.0% 9.0% 14.0% 34.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.389 0.207 33.1% 7.1% 11.1% 42.2% OF $4,800 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.298 0.183 37.2% 7.2% 23.2% 40.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.338 0.144 29.5% 6.9% 17.2% 46.4% SS $3,300 3B/SS $4,100 SS $8,000
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.246 0.211 45.5% 5.0% 40.0% 27.3% 3B $2,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.375 0.259 39.9% 10.7% 21.4% 45.8% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.326 0.140 34.8% 6.2% 26.2% 45.2% C $2,500 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Marco Hernandez SWITCH 0.279 0.082 27.5% 7.5% 17.0% 57.5% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,800 3B $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Chris Sale is another pitcher that we shouldn’t be targeting hitters against often, but there is at least a case to be made. His strikeout rate against righties is considerably lower than his strikeout rate against lefties. He also allows a 32.7% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera have both fared well in this matchup in the past and Nick Castellanos has been red-hot to start the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.349 0.188 34.0% 6.3% 16.7% 34.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.378 0.217 36.8% 7.2% 23.7% 31.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.396 0.253 40.6% 9.9% 16.7% 41.2% 1B $3,800 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.347 0.192 40.2% 8.3% 15.1% 36.4% C $2,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.333 0.223 38.0% 8.4% 28.1% 39.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.193 0.066 33.3% 4.5% 41.7% 38.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.238 0.078 28.3% 5.6% 27.2% 42.3% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.105 23.5% 13.6% 9.1% 58.8% OF $2,300 3B/SS $2,900 3B $5,600
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.266 0.055 13.9% 5.1% 10.7% 56.6% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland at Kansas City – 4:15 PM ET

Oakland Kansas City
oaklandmlb Jharel Cotton kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -116 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.229 26.2% 7.0% 19.3% 38.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 36.3% 8.6% 20.6% 29.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 28.8% 2.6% 20.8% 35.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 36.6% 8.3% 24.5% 37.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jharel Cotton
jharel-cotton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 6 4.06 3.21 20.2% 4.5% 36.6% 44.6% 27.7%

Cotton did not pitch well in his first start of the season, but there is still plenty to be excited about moving forward. He had an elite strikeout rate in the minors for many years and he performed well in his major league stint last season. He comes into this game as an underdog on the road, but he is cheap, he has strikeout upside, and he is facing an offense that isn’t scaring anyone. The Royals only have three hitters in their projected lineup with a wOBA of at least .315 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Little risky in cash, but playable in GPPs.

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 34 4.31 3.72 22.5% 8.4% 33.3% 47.4% 36.4%

Kennedy is a pitcher that we want to avoid when he’s pitching in smaller ballparks and target when he is pitching in larger ballparks. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a ton of home runs, so when he pitches in big ballparks like Kauffman Stadium, he becomes a viable option in DFS. Kennedy has always had an above-average strikeout rate and his price is affordable across the industry. The A’s lineup is full of fly-ball hitters, so as long as they aren’t going over the wall, Kennedy could be in for a nice outing at home.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The breakdown of Ian Kennedy above is basically a pros and cons list for the A’s offense. We like to target hitters against fly-ball pitchers, but this is a tough ballpark to hit home runs in. The good news is that Kennedy allows a 36% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. This probably isn’t a great spot to stack the A’s, but you can play a few of their hitters as one-off targets to try to capture their home run upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.304 0.143 26.7% 5.6% 20.4% 47.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.371 0.230 38.2% 19.7% 22.7% 42.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,400 RF $4,800
3 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.351 0.213 29.8% 4.7% 23.1% 38.3% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,400
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.350 0.287 40.0% 6.4% 28.0% 44.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
5 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.318 0.168 27.0% 7.1% 13.9% 28.5% C $2,800 1B/C $3,100 C $6,000
6 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.290 0.077 30.2% 7.4% 17.5% 42.3% 2B $2,200 2B $2,700 2B $5,400
7 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.307 0.114 34.2% 9.0% 14.1% 42.1% 1B $2,400 1B $2,800 1B $5,600
8 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.295 0.131 31.0% 4.4% 16.4% 43.5% 3B $2,300 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
9 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.308 0.173 29.0% 9.7% 23.0% 37.9% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City

If it weren’t for Mike Moustakas, how boring would this Royals’ offense be? They are basically a team comprised of singles and doubles hitters with very little home run upside. Their matchup against Jharel Cotton is an intriguing one given the fact that he hasn’t proven himself at the major league level, but outside of Moustakas, I’m not seeing any other elite plays in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.307 0.167 37.3% 10.0% 28.3% 36.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.362 0.292 36.1% 8.6% 12.4% 41.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.296 0.088 28.7% 7.4% 21.4% 51.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.345 0.178 36.6% 9.5% 19.3% 57.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.314 0.193 35.7% 3.2% 21.4% 36.1% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,400
6 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.338 0.294 41.6% 10.5% 30.2% 24.9% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.297 0.067 30.6% 2.6% 22.1% 57.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.285 0.089 20.8% 3.8% 14.3% 48.5% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.213 0.106 32.4% 0.9% 32.7% 48.3% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Brandon Moss

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at San Francisco – 4:35 PM ET

Arizona San Francisco
arizonamlb Taijuan Walker sanfranciscomlb Matt Moore
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -143 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 29.0% 6.6% 22.4% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 30.6% 6.8% 22.1% 42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 30.0% 6.1% 19.8% 46.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 30.4% 9.0% 20.6% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Taijuan Walker
taijuan-walker-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 26 4.07 4.30 21.0% 6.3% 43.8% 37.7% 29.5%

Walker struck out seven batters in his first start with the Diamondbacks, but he also gave up four runs to the Giants. Even though today’s game will be on the road, this is a much better ballpark for pitchers. Walker has struggled with home runs throughout his career, but AT&T Park is one of the toughest ballparks to hit home runs in. I’m less concerned about the home runs and more concerned about his strikeout upside. The Giants do not strikeout often and they like to drive pitch counts up and wait for pitches to drive. Even in a five-game early slate, I’d rather look elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 34 4.41 4.11 20.9% 8.6% 38.8% 41.7% 30.5%

Moore had a nice bounce-back season in 2016 thanks to a move to the National League and having half of his starts come in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He didn’t pitch great against the Diamondbacks in his first start of the season, but he was better than expected in Chase Field. Moore has some tough work dealing with the top of their lineup, but he can afford to be more aggressive in this park. He offers nice strikeout upside for the price and he comes into the game as a sizable favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Fire him up in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Even though this is a spot where Matt Moore could potentially pitch well, that doesn’t mean we have to avoid the Diamondbacks. Whenever they are facing a left-handed pitcher, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas will all be on my radar. All three hitters have a .400+ wOBA against southpaws in the last two seasons. In tournaments, we can play Moore and we can play the Diamondbacks’ righties, we just can’t play them together.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.404 0.333 33.3% 11.8% 17.6% 41.7% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.354 0.177 26.9% 6.6% 17.2% 47.3% SS $2,700 OF/SS $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.440 0.214 44.3% 20.6% 20.6% 46.4% 1B $4,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.279 0.186 30.0% 12.4% 28.5% 55.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.456 0.319 46.9% 8.8% 25.0% 48.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.331 0.196 36.0% 5.4% 17.0% 52.6% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
7 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.328 0.124 32.6% 14.6% 22.9% 46.1% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,500
8 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.274 0.116 29.3% 4.3% 15.1% 49.3% SS $2,200 SS $2,100 SS $4,000
9 Taijuan Walker RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $7,500 P $8,700 P $16,800

Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

The Giants are one of my favorite offenses to target in the early slate. They scored four runs against Taijuan Walker last week and will look to do the same today. Walker had reverse-splits last season, but in his career, he gives up similar numbers to both left and right-handed hitters. This may not be the best ballpark for home runs, but it is a good ballpark for doubles and triples.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.257 0.065 20.0% 7.8% 14.1% 60.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.380 0.218 34.1% 14.0% 22.5% 30.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.353 0.236 37.2% 9.6% 21.3% 48.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.382 0.178 38.6% 14.5% 10.4% 42.1% C $3,900 1B/C $3,600 C $7,200
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.320 0.107 37.7% 7.8% 20.1% 44.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.312 0.183 30.2% 5.2% 12.4% 45.2% 3B $2,700 3B/SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.261 0.072 24.1% 7.8% 15.0% 47.8% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
8 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.160 0.105 27.3% 5.0% 40.0% 63.6% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
9 Matt Moore LEFT 0.176 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 33.3% P $7,800 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Seattle – 5:10 PM ET

Houston Seattle
houstonmlb Charlie Morton seattlemlb James Paxton
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-129 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 20.0% 9.1% 22.7% 56.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 28.8% 8.3% 13.1% 49.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 24.2% 11.5% 25.0% 56.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 33.8% 4.0% 24.7% 47.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016-17 5 3.87 3.86 24.0% 10.4% 56.5% 25.8% 22.2%

Morton pitched well in his first start of the season, but it’s not something that I am counting on moving forward. He has never been a high strikeout pitcher in his career, although he does induce an elite ground ball rate. He is one of those pitchers that I won’t be targeting often, but that I won’t be targeting hitters against often either. There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t fall for the trap, avoid.

James Paxton
james-paxton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 8 of 20 Salary Rank: 8 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% FB% HC%
2016 20 3.54 3.79 22.9% 4.7% 48.1% 30.1% 33.1%

Paxton pitched well in his first start of the season and now gets to face the Astros again at home. In 20 starts over the last two years, Paxton has a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.9% and a walk rate of 4.7%. His price doesn’t quite match his production, which screams value. The Astros may hit right-handed pitching well, but Paxton is a reverse-splits pitcher that shouldn’t have too many issues with right-handed heavy lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Playable in GPPs and as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

James Paxton has an above-average strikeout rate, he doesn’t walk many batters, he has an above-average ground ball rate, and he is tough on right-handed hitters. This doesn’t seem like the best time to load up on the Astros’ offense, especially since they are typically more potent at home. The four bats at the top of the order are all in play as one-off targets in tournaments, but this isn’t a great spot to stack the Astros.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.393 0.285 38.5% 12.6% 23.4% 45.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.327 0.172 36.0% 8.5% 21.1% 34.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.363 0.174 36.8% 9.6% 15.7% 42.6% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.311 0.138 40.3% 14.4% 19.3% 48.4% SS $3,800 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.404 0.242 40.2% 5.6% 19.2% 31.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.194 0.075 34.0% 0.0% 5.7% 40.0% 3B $2,300 3B $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.370 0.256 32.6% 6.9% 18.4% 38.8% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.170 0.000 20.2% 6.3% 18.0% 45.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.295 0.172 31.8% 7.0% 25.8% 42.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,400 CF $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle

Charlie Morton is a ground ball pitcher and if you look at the projected lineup below, you will see that the Mariners’ offense as a whole is full of ground ball hitters. The ground ball pitcher vs. ground ball hitter is arguably the worst batted ball matchup possible for fantasy production. For more on how to analyze batted ball profiles, check out the new RotoAcademy video dedicated to hitting. Morton does struggle against left-handed hitters, but preferably we want to target the ones that get the ball in the air. I expect Robinson Cano to be popular in this slate, even though the matchup looks awful if you look at the ground ball rates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDFT Pos. FDFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.329 0.154 27.3% 7.0% 21.6% 54.7% SS $3,300 2B/SS $4,300 SS $8,400
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.228 0.125 33.3% 11.1% 38.9% 44.4% OF $2,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.329 0.176 30.6% 4.3% 15.5% 52.1% 2B $3,100 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.416 0.347 39.6% 11.3% 22.6% 44.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.311 0.201 34.5% 7.0% 18.9% 40.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.392 0.214 32.7% 10.2% 18.4% 49.0% 1B $2,300 3B/OF $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.293 0.123 28.2% 4.6% 26.8% 47.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.355 0.238 40.0% 18.5% 31.5% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.396 0.156 12.9% 5.3% 7.9% 51.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious