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MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-24 02:22:52

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Note: The ATL/CIN game is not included in today’s Grind Down. It’s not featured in the main slate and might end up getting postponed.

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Cleveland Baltimore
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-170 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.308 31.3% 6.4% 26.8% 44.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.344 29.9% 11.7% 20.7% 39.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.279 25.4% 4.8% 28.0% 45.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.347 34.3% 6.1% 22.4% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $23,100
Salary Rank: 2 of 17 Salary Rank: 2 of 17 Salary Rank: 2 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4%
2018 4 3.64 2.60 20.6% 3.9% 46.1% 20.8% 16.9%

There are eight games on the main slate tonight. We start in Baltimore with two of the best offenses in the American League. Carrasco has been solid so far this season, although his strikeout rate is down 8%. There hasn’t been a change in velocity, but he has been generating fewer swings and misses. I’m not overly concerned, but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. Historically, Carrasco has been dominant on the road and he has a good track record against the Orioles. While they have power in their lineup, five of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 26% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: When it comes to the pitcher, it’s all about strikeout upside. Carrasco has as much upside as any pitcher on the board and is an elite play in all formats.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 17 Salary Rank: 14 of 17 Salary Rank: 13 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 4 4.10 5.57 19.8% 6.3% 37.7% 34.3% 18.6%

Gausman is one of the strangest case studies in baseball. He’ll go through stretches where he looks like an ace and then he’ll go through stretches when he’s allowing five+ runs each outing. He’s a pitcher that we need to see good form from before targeting in DFS and he certainly doesn’t have it right now. In four starts this season, Gausman owns a 4.10 SIERA, a 20% strikeout rate, and a 34% hard contact rate. A matchup against the Indians likely won’t helps, as Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .335 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bad form and a bad matchup make Gausman an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to face a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Since the beginning of last season, Kevin Gausman has allowed a .344 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .347 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. His command isn’t great and he’s a very hittable pitcher when he’s not striking batters out at a high rate. The Indians aren’t my favorite stack on the board, but there are a number of viable one-off targets in this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.334 0.355 0.230 33.6% 8.2% 14.7% 39.4% SS $4,300 SS $4,700 SS $9,700
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.292 0.308 0.172 33.0% 7.1% 20.3% 34.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.391 0.358 0.268 30.8% 9.9% 10.1% 37.8% 3B $4,500 3B $4,800 IF/OF $10,100
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.366 0.368 0.177 39.1% 9.4% 12.6% 47.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,200
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.369 0.391 0.261 37.5% 12.7% 20.1% 34.7% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $9,100
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.373 0.386 0.229 35.1% 13.8% 22.0% 34.5% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.285 0.270 0.137 25.4% 7.5% 27.1% 39.9% C $2,900 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.267 0.282 0.078 38.3% 5.8% 26.1% 55.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.297 0.299 0.148 37.9% 7.9% 33.3% 45.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the worst matchups on the board. Carlos Carrasco has an above-average strikeout rate, an above-averaged ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA since the beginning of last season. The one and only hitter on my radar from the Orioles is Manny Machado. He has a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and tends to show up in difficult matchups. He hit not one, but two home runs off of Corey Kluber yesterday.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.356 0.360 0.209 34.6% 6.8% 22.6% 50.1% OF $3,200 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,300
2 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.326 0.358 0.134 31.9% 11.8% 26.3% 38.3% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $2,900 1B $5,900
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.335 0.368 0.206 36.5% 8.3% 17.1% 41.9% SS $4,600 SS $5,000 3B $10,500
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.328 0.321 0.190 31.1% 3.1% 18.8% 44.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.320 0.345 0.227 42.0% 12.6% 34.0% 39.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.317 0.311 0.160 38.5% 5.7% 29.5% 49.2% 2B $2,700 3B $2,900 SS $5,600
7 Luis Sardinas SWITCH 0.179 0.157 0.075 10.3% 7.0% 25.6% 65.5% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,400
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.264 0.248 0.124 25.2% 3.2% 29.7% 46.9% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.256 0.279 0.131 35.3% 1.6% 17.5% 31.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 LF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Minnesota NY Yankees
minnesotamlb Jake Odorizzi nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-205 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.323 31.6% 9.8% 19.7% 28.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.324 31.8% 5.3% 25.8% 54.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.332 39.3% 10.8% 22.1% 32.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.318 32.7% 5.3% 25.5% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 8 of 17 Salary Rank: 12 of 17 Salary Rank: 11 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.90 4.14 21.0% 10.1% 30.6% 36.8% 15.3%
2018 4 4.77 3.38 21.1% 12.2% 32.2% 30.0% 21.7%

Odorizzi hasn’t been great in his first four starts of the season, posting a 4.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 12%. There are a few times each season when we can play him with confidence, but this isn’t one of them. He’s pitching on the road against the Yankees, who have three of the best right-handed hitters in baseball. A quick glance at the table above shows that Odorizzi has allowed a 39% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher playing in Yankee Stadium.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Odorizzi in all formats.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,900
Salary Rank: 3 of 17 Salary Rank: 4 of 17 Salary Rank: 4 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5%
2018 4 3.31 6.45 24.5% 4.3% 44.6% 39.4% 21.2%

Masahiro Tanaka doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, which is why it’s so strange that he gives up so many home runs. His HR/FB rate last season was over 20%, which is nearly double the major league average. Positive regression made sense heading into this season, but through four starts his HR/FB rate is over 20% again. The rest of his numbers all check out — 3.31 SIERA, 25% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate. We get all of this at a discounted price point in an exploitable matchup against the Twins. The current roster for Minnesota has a combined .259 xwOBA with 21 strikeouts in 80 plate appearances against Tanaka.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is my favorite point-per-dollar pitcher of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have not fared well against Masahiro Tanaka in the past. While they do see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, I would rather be on the other side of this matchup. This slate is loaded with exploitable matchups and Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .324 xwOBA since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.343 0.330 0.208 32.9% 10.4% 20.1% 38.1% 2B $4,200 2B $4,500 2B $9,400
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.357 0.399 0.126 40.2% 12.5% 13.3% 49.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.343 0.346 0.229 45.1% 10.3% 37.9% 39.4% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 IF/OF $7,400
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.372 0.349 0.261 33.2% 7.2% 17.5% 38.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.355 0.374 0.279 39.1% 13.2% 24.9% 33.4% 1B $2,200 1B $2,900 1B $5,400
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.331 0.333 0.218 35.3% 6.3% 21.4% 32.3% SS $2,800 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,600
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.358 0.333 0.218 36.3% 9.8% 16.3% 41.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 RF $7,000
8 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.320 0.336 0.146 28.6% 12.5% 20.4% 40.2% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 LF $5,900
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.304 0.317 0.141 34.3% 12.0% 29.5% 40.1% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP), Logan Morrison (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top stacks of the slate, which says a lot given the fact that we have a game being played in Coors Field. Jake Odorizzi is a fly-ball pitcher that has always struggled with right-handed power. The Yankees are a home run hitting team that is loaded with right-handed power. This is one of those spots where the Yankees could hit four or five home runs. New York has seven batters in their projected lineup with an ISO over .220 against right-handed pitching. You can certainly stack this offense or use any of the righties as individual plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.353 0.330 0.180 30.9% 11.3% 18.6% 43.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 LF $7,500
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.438 0.443 0.349 43.9% 16.4% 30.2% 35.6% OF $5,400 OF $5,400 RF $11,000
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.371 0.317 0.251 28.1% 6.5% 10.9% 35.3% SS $4,800 SS $4,900 SS $9,200
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.377 0.372 0.304 38.2% 10.7% 27.3% 45.5% OF $4,800 OF $5,000 RF $10,100
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.347 0.377 0.233 35.7% 5.9% 22.5% 43.3% C $3,900 C $4,700 C $8,900
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.361 0.350 0.221 30.1% 16.4% 19.5% 42.9% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,600
7 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.315 0.298 0.232 40.0% 6.6% 42.6% 33.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.418 0.395 0.368 48.5% 2.5% 15.0% 45.5% 3B $3,300 3B $2,800 3B $5,500
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,000 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

Oakland at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Oakland Texas
oaklandmlb Trevor Cahill texasmlb Matt Moore
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-125 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.325 30.4% 14.5% 24.7% 57.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.434 0.425 33.8% 8.7% 17.5% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.381 0.317 30.0% 9.1% 22.2% 55.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.344 36.1% 8.6% 18.8% 36.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Cahill
trevor-cahill-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 10 of 17 Salary Rank: 6 of 17 Salary Rank: 7 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.43 4.93 22.8% 11.8% 55.6% 28.9% 22.4%
2018 1 2.47 0.00 30.8% 7.7% 68.8% 50.0% 6.3%

Cahill was my favorite value play the night of his first start and he didn’t disappoint, striking out eight batters in seven scoreless innings against the White Sox. While that was impressive, I’ll take my one good outing and run. This is a much different start, as he now has to face the Rangers on the road in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Cahill may be favored, but the game features a total of 10.0 runs, which is the second highest of the slate. There will be plenty of opportunities to play Cahill this season, but I’ll be avoiding him tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Let’s wait for another favorable matchup at home for Cahill.

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 12 of 17 Salary Rank: 9 of 17 Salary Rank: 8 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.86 5.52 18.7% 8.5% 37.7% 34.7% 15.9%
2018 4 4.98 5.59 16.5% 9.9% 36.9% 43.1% 15.4%

Moore is not good. In fact, he doesn’t have a single green or blue box in his pitching table above. He has a high SIERA, a low strikeout rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Not only are the A’s a team with power, but they have a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. The projected lineup for Oakland has a .335 xwOBA against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Moore is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Coors Field is the best thing that could have happened for the A’s tonight, at least in terms of ownership. We have a chance to roster a potent stack against Matt Moore at fairly low ownership. I will sign up for that every single day of the week. Since the beginning of last season, Moore has allowed a .425 xwOBA to lefties (oh, hello Matt Olson) and a .344 xwOBA to righties. The icing on the cake is the ballpark, which is much better for run production than the one in Oakland.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.318 0.317 0.159 41.9% 11.1% 24.3% 37.0% SS $3,600 SS $3,400 SS $6,900
2 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.284 0.249 0.163 27.4% 2.2% 26.7% 30.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.351 0.382 0.158 33.3% 10.3% 18.4% 39.4% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $9,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.328 0.389 0.228 49.0% 14.2% 30.1% 42.7% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 LF $9,400
5 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.340 0.316 0.202 38.8% 10.3% 32.5% 31.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,300 3B $8,000
6 Matt Olson LEFT 0.294 0.333 0.183 37.5% 7.5% 28.8% 47.9% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
7 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.303 0.349 0.093 41.5% 13.7% 20.6% 50.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,400
8 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.339 0.372 0.192 35.2% 9.7% 26.5% 38.6% OF $2,100 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,500
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.262 0.305 0.072 21.4% 10.6% 9.9% 55.4% C $2,000 C $3,300 C $6,800

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers are an offense that is getting overlooked tonight, even though we’ve seen the bad Trevor Cahill show up a number of times over the last couple of seasons. This offense is always capable of scoring double-digit runs, especially in this ballpark. While Cahill does boast a high ground ball rate, the Rangers get the ball in the air. Six of their projected starters have above-average fly-ball rates and seven of them have a hard contact rate of at least 35% against right-handed pitching. If the game in Coors Field doesn’t shootout like everyone expects, the batters from this game could win a GPP.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.341 0.385 0.201 40.2% 11.8% 21.8% 45.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
2 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.264 0.300 0.034 25.7% 13.2% 19.8% 36.8% SS $2,600 2B/SS $2,700 3B $5,600
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.328 0.338 0.179 35.2% 9.4% 20.1% 43.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.358 0.362 0.192 35.8% 9.0% 13.8% 43.8% 3B $3,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,700
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.356 0.375 0.332 45.8% 13.5% 35.0% 30.0% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $3,800 1B $8,500
6 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.312 0.248 0.217 46.7% 8.0% 32.0% 40.0% 1B $2,600 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.332 0.330 0.233 36.3% 9.3% 29.0% 40.0% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,400
8 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.331 0.247 0.138 60.0% 0.0% 31.0% 31.6% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $2,700 3B $5,500
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.306 0.263 0.069 23.9% 9.5% 22.4% 49.2% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,500

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

LA Angels Houston
laangelsmlb Tyler Skaggs houstonmlb Gerrit Cole
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-190 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.331 28.8% 6.3% 20.7% 46.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.331 37.0% 6.5% 26.0% 41.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.335 36.3% 8.1% 21.5% 42.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.296 25.7% 6.3% 23.9% 47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Skaggs
tyler-skaggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 17 Salary Rank: 8 of 17 Salary Rank: 8 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.44 4.55 20.8% 7.7% 41.8% 32.2% 20.8%
2018 4 3.72 3.98 23.1% 7.7% 49.2% 43.6% 4.8%

Skaggs struggled in his last start against the Red Sox and faces a similarly talented lineup tonight in the Astros. My rule of thumb is to never take pitchers against Boston or Houston, as they both have power, low strikeout rates, and high walk rates against both left and right-handed pitching. It’s nothing personal, it’s just business. Although to quote the great Michael Scott, “Business is always personal. It’s the most personal thing in the world.”

Quick Breakdown: Sorry Skaggs, but I will be looking elsewhere.

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $25,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 17 Salary Rank: 1 of 17 Salary Rank: 1 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.97 4.26 23.1% 6.5% 45.8% 31.3% 23.9%
2018 4 2.04 0.96 39.8% 5.8% 30.2% 29.1% 16.4%

Cole seems to like his new surroundings. In his first four starts with the Astros, he has a 2.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 40%. He’s shown good command and a willingness to attack hitters with seemingly every pitch. He is pitching a lot like Justin Verlander and Chris Sale, who just attack the strike zone over and over again. While the Angels aren’t the best matchup around, they do have a few high-strikeout hitters in their lineup. I wouldn’t say Cole is the best point-per-dollar options at pitcher, but he does have the highest projection in terms of raw fantasy points.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is an elite option in all formats, but not a must play. It depends on what you want to do with your hitters.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels have the worst matchup of the slate. Gerrit Cole has been unhittable so far this season and it’s not like the Angels are facing him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. With one of the lowest implied run totals of the slate, I have very little interest in the Angels’ offense. With that said, I’m always willing to play Mike Trout in difficult matchups. He’ll be very low owned in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.303 0.324 0.155 34.8% 8.7% 14.3% 34.6% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.447 0.435 0.349 40.7% 17.0% 18.2% 35.1% OF $5,400 OF $5,300 CF $10,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.350 0.348 0.233 39.6% 11.1% 29.7% 36.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 LF $8,100
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.299 0.332 0.168 35.8% 4.8% 14.2% 42.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,700
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.321 0.307 0.140 31.5% 5.1% 9.4% 48.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
6 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.316 0.322 0.231 35.8% 10.7% 27.1% 32.9% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $3,100 3B $5,500
7 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.375 0.336 0.233 30.7% 10.9% 15.3% 39.1% SS $3,000 2B/3B $3,900 SS $7,600
8 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.311 0.327 0.142 33.6% 10.4% 22.2% 44.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.274 0.293 0.151 26.2% 2.1% 23.2% 47.9% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Houston

The Astros are so good. They have a ton of power from the right side of the plate, they draw walks, and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. It’s almost unfair. There is typically a trade-off between power and strikeouts, but not with Houston. They draw an exploitable matchup against Tyler Skaggs, who has allowed a .335 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. You can target the Astros’ bats individually or as a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.421 0.442 0.283 37.6% 14.3% 14.8% 41.4% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.384 0.352 0.208 29.7% 10.0% 13.2% 31.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.402 0.340 0.194 27.0% 9.4% 13.3% 45.1% 2B $4,600 2B $5,000 2B $9,700
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.440 0.438 0.211 42.3% 12.1% 14.4% 45.4% SS $4,700 SS $5,100 SS $9,200
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.304 0.323 0.154 37.9% 6.3% 13.6% 48.6% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $4,000 1B $7,200
6 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.296 0.347 0.179 33.3% 5.8% 16.5% 43.0% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,400
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.321 0.274 0.186 26.6% 8.1% 19.9% 43.4% 1B $2,700 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,500
8 Brian McCann LEFT 0.339 0.367 0.164 18.1% 10.9% 12.4% 47.9% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,500
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.322 0.296 0.212 24.3% 8.4% 34.4% 29.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Seattle Chicago White Sox
seattlemlb Mike Leake whitesoxmlb Carson Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-135 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.363 31.9% 6.7% 12.6% 55.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.371 23.5% 18.3% 17.1% 29.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.322 36.3% 3.9% 20.3% 48.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.390 32.8% 8.3% 20.2% 35.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake
mike-leake-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 17 Salary Rank: 10 of 17 Salary Rank: 8 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.15 3.92 16.6% 4.7% 53.7% 32.7% 15.8%
2018 4 5.19 4.50 14.7% 9.8% 39.5% 44.7% 6.6%

Leake has not been sharp in his first four starts of the season, posting a 5.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. Perhaps a matchup against the struggling White Sox can put him on the right track. The projected lineup for Chicago has a .317 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I’m not sure that we need to go this cheap at pitcher, but Leake is one of the more appealing values in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Leake is not a cash game target, but he’s worth a look as an SP2 in tournaments given the matchup.

Carson Fulmer
carson-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 17 Salary Rank: 15 of 17 Salary Rank: 15 of 17
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.59 3.86 18.8% 12.9% 28.8% 20.9% 19.4%
2018 3 5.19 7.50 18.5% 13.9% 38.1% 40.5% 19.1%

Fulmer has not pitched well in his last eight major league starts, posting a SIERA well over 5.00 with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. He has zero fantasy appeal tonight against the Mariners in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. As you can see from the graph on Page 1, this is a good ballpark for left-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fulmer in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are another offense that will get overlooked tonight thanks to the fact that there is a game in Coors Field. They are playing in a decent hitter’s park and they draw an exploitable matchup against Carson Fulmer, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .371 xwOBA to lefties and a .390 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. If you are looking for low-owned stacks with double-digit run upside, the Mariners and A’s are my favorites in this slate. Individually, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager both stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.325 0.270 0.077 17.1% 4.5% 14.7% 53.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.326 0.294 0.133 24.9% 4.5% 15.2% 56.0% SS $3,500 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.372 0.396 0.196 40.1% 8.5% 12.5% 47.6% 2B $4,100 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.392 0.394 0.282 40.1% 7.0% 22.1% 40.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.322 0.366 0.204 37.6% 9.3% 16.2% 30.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,700
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.378 0.348 0.225 38.0% 8.8% 23.6% 40.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
7 Daniel Vogelbach LEFT 0.341 0.390 0.148 48.6% 11.3% 30.6% 34.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,100 1B $5,900
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.346 0.323 0.243 39.7% 8.3% 37.8% 33.9% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,600
9 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.317 0.305 0.139 28.2% 7.7% 19.8% 43.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $6,000

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Even though Mike Leake has been struggling this season, he’s still not a pitcher that I feel great about targeting. He has an above-average ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters. While we don’t have a full slate of games to choose from tonight, there are better matchups to exploit. The one hitter that does deserve consideration is Yoan Moncada. He’s been swinging a hot bat this season and offers a good mix of both speed and power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.354 0.368 0.221 43.6% 14.4% 33.5% 39.4% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.340 0.359 0.169 33.6% 5.3% 20.7% 51.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.362 0.370 0.239 40.6% 4.7% 16.9% 45.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.298 0.314 0.244 42.2% 5.4% 39.4% 40.2% 3B $3,700 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
5 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.357 0.314 0.185 28.3% 11.6% 17.9% 37.6% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.330 0.345 0.204 37.6% 6.8% 26.7% 42.6% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,600
7 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.322 0.294 0.157 25.8% 6.2% 19.9% 47.7% 3B $2,600 3B $3,000 2B $5,900
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.269 0.265 0.135 27.2% 3.4% 27.2% 53.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,500
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.209 0.222 0.092 25.0% 5.7% 37.7% 40.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada (Cash), Nick Delmonico

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious